TED2018
Liv Boeree: 3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion
Live Boeree: 3 nauki pokerske šampionke o odločanju
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Je bolje imeti srečo ali biti dober? Naj se pri pomembnih odločitvah zanašamo na nagon ali na verjetnosti in previdne analize? V tem kratkem govoru profesionalna igralka pokra Live Boeree predstavi tri strategije, ki se jih je naučila od pokra, in kako jih lahko uporabimo v vsakdanjem življenju.
Liv Boeree - Science communicator, games specialist
Liv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world. Full bio
Liv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So I'm a professional poker player,
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Sem profesionalna igralka pokra
00:15
and today, I want to talk about
three things that the game has taught me
three things that the game has taught me
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in danes bom govorila o treh spoznanjih,
o odločanju, ki me jih je naučil poker
o odločanju, ki me jih je naučil poker
00:20
around decision-making
that I find apply to everyday life.
that I find apply to everyday life.
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in za katere menim, da jih lahko uporabimo
v vsakdanjem življenju.
v vsakdanjem življenju.
00:25
Now the first of these things
is about luck.
is about luck.
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Prvo spoznananje je o sreči.
00:27
Now, like poker, life is also
a game of skill and luck,
a game of skill and luck,
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Kot poker, je tudi življenje
igra spretnosti in sreče.
igra spretnosti in sreče.
00:32
and when it comes
to the biggest things we care about --
to the biggest things we care about --
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Številne stvari,
ki so za nas najbolj pomembne,
ki so za nas najbolj pomembne,
00:35
health, wealth and relationships --
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zdravje, premoženje in odnosi,
00:38
these outcomes don't only depend
on the quality of our decision-making,
on the quality of our decision-making,
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niso odvisne le od kvalitetnega odločanja,
00:42
but also the roll of life's dice.
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pač pa tudi od sreče.
00:43
For example, we can be
perfectly health-conscious
perfectly health-conscious
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Lahko zavedno skrbimo za svoje zdravje,
00:46
and still get unlucky
with something like cancer.
with something like cancer.
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a nas kljub temu doleti nesreča,
na primer rak.
na primer rak.
00:50
Or we can smoke 20 a day
and live to a ripe old age,
and live to a ripe old age,
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Ali pa pokadimo 20 cigaret na dan
in vseeno doživimo visoko starost.
in vseeno doživimo visoko starost.
00:53
and this kind of ambiguity
can make it hard for us to know
can make it hard for us to know
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Zaradi te dvoumnosti
lahko včasih težko ocenimo
lahko včasih težko ocenimo
00:56
how good our strategies are, sometimes,
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kako dobre so naše strategije,
00:59
especially when we're
experiencing a lot of success.
experiencing a lot of success.
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še zlasti ko doživljamo velike uspehe.
01:03
For example, back in 2010,
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Leta 2010 sem na primer
01:04
I won a really big poker tournament
known as the European Poker Tour.
known as the European Poker Tour.
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zmagala na zelo pomembnem turnirju,
Evropski poker turneji.
Evropski poker turneji.
01:08
And because I'd only been playing
full-time for about a year,
full-time for about a year,
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Ker sem takrat poker
profesionalno igrala šele eno leto,
profesionalno igrala šele eno leto,
01:12
when I won, I assumed
I must be rather brilliant.
I must be rather brilliant.
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sem sklepala, da sem verjetno genialna.
01:16
In fact, I thought I was so brilliant
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Bila sem tako sigurna v svojo genialnost,
01:17
that I not only got rather lazy
with studying the game,
with studying the game,
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da sem ne le nehala
marljivo preučevati igro,
marljivo preučevati igro,
01:21
but I also got more risky,
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pač pa sem začela več tvegati
01:23
started playing in
the biggest tournaments I could
the biggest tournaments I could
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in igrati na največjih turnirjih,
01:26
against the very best in the world.
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proti najbolšim igralcem na svetu.
01:28
And then my profit graph went
from a thing of beauty
from a thing of beauty
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In tako se je graf mojega zaslužka
spremenil iz nečesa čudovitega,
spremenil iz nečesa čudovitega,
01:32
to something kind of sad,
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v nekaj precej žalostnega,
01:34
with this worrying
downhill trend for a long time,
downhill trend for a long time,
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in ta zaskrbljujoč trend
upadanja se je nadaljeval
upadanja se je nadaljeval
01:37
until I finally realized
that I was overestimating my skill level,
that I was overestimating my skill level,
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dokler nisem ugotovila,
da precenjujem svoje sposobnosti
da precenjujem svoje sposobnosti
01:40
and got my act together.
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in se vzela v roke.
01:42
And this kind of reminds me
of what we've been seeing
of what we've been seeing
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To me spominja na dogajanje
01:45
in the cryptocurrency space,
at least in 2017,
at least in 2017,
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v svetu kriptovalut, no, vsaj v letu 2017,
01:47
where the only thing that's been going up
faster than the markets themselves
faster than the markets themselves
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ko je bilo edino,
kar je rastlo hitreje kot sam trg,
kar je rastlo hitreje kot sam trg,
01:51
is the number of "senior
investment specialists"
investment specialists"
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število
"višjih investicijskih specialistov,"
"višjih investicijskih specialistov,"
01:53
who have been appearing out of nowhere.
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ki so se pojavili od nikoder.
01:56
Now I'm not saying it's not possible
to have a strategic edge,
to have a strategic edge,
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Ne trdim, da je nemogoče
imeti strateško prednost,
imeti strateško prednost,
01:59
but at the same time,
it's very easy to feel like a genius
it's very easy to feel like a genius
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vendar pa se zlahka počutimo kot genialci
02:02
when you're in a market
that's going up so fast
that's going up so fast
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na trgu, ki raste tako hitro,
02:04
that even the worst strategies
are making a profit.
are making a profit.
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da so celo najslabše
strategije profitabilne.
strategije profitabilne.
02:07
So when we're experiencing success,
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Ko doživimo uspeh, je zato pomembno,
02:09
it's important to take a moment
to really ask ourselves
to really ask ourselves
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da se vprašamo
02:12
how much of it is truly down to us,
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kolikšna zasluga je dejansko naša.
02:15
because our egos love to downplay
the luck factor when we're winning.
the luck factor when we're winning.
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Kajti naš ego zelo rad podceni
vlogo sreče pri zmagi.
vlogo sreče pri zmagi.
02:21
Now, a second thing poker taught me
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Druga stvar,
ki sem se jo naučila pri pokru,
ki sem se jo naučila pri pokru,
02:23
is the importance
of quantifying my thinking.
of quantifying my thinking.
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je pomembnost
kvantificiranja svojega razmišljanja.
kvantificiranja svojega razmišljanja.
02:26
When you're playing,
you can't just get away with going,
you can't just get away with going,
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Med igro ni dovolj, da razmišljamo:
02:29
"Eh, they're probably bluffing."
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"Eh, verjetno blefirajo."
02:31
That's just going to lose you
a bunch of money,
a bunch of money,
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Na ta način bomo le
izgubili veliko denarja,
izgubili veliko denarja,
02:33
because poker is a game
of probabilities and precision,
of probabilities and precision,
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kajti poker je igra
verjetnosti in natančnosti.
verjetnosti in natančnosti.
02:36
and so you have to train yourself
to think in numbers.
to think in numbers.
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Moramo se izuriti,
da razmišljamo v številkah.
da razmišljamo v številkah.
02:40
So now, whenever I catch myself
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Zato sedaj, ko se ujamem,
02:42
thinking vaguely about something
really important, like,
really important, like,
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da le nejasno razmišljam
o čem pomembnem, kot denimo:
o čem pomembnem, kot denimo:
02:46
"It's unlikely I'll forget
what I want to say in my TED Talk,"
what I want to say in my TED Talk,"
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"Malo verjetno je, da bi pozabila kaj
hočem povedati v svojem TED govoru,"
hočem povedati v svojem TED govoru,"
02:49
I now try to estimate it numerically.
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poskušam to oceniti številčno.
02:52
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:53
Trust me, it helps a lot
with the planning process.
with the planning process.
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Verjemite mi, to zelo
pomaga pri načrtovanju.
pomaga pri načrtovanju.
02:56
And the thing is, almost anything
that could possibly happen here today,
that could possibly happen here today,
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Stvar je v tem, da skoraj vse,
kar bi se lahko tu zgodilo danes,
kar bi se lahko tu zgodilo danes,
02:59
or at any point in the future,
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ali kadarkoli v prihodnosti,
03:01
can also be expressed
as a probability, too.
as a probability, too.
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lahko izrazimo tudi kot verjetnost.
03:04
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:07
So now I also try to speak
in numbers as well.
in numbers as well.
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Zato sedaj poskušam tudi med
pogovorom uporabljati številke.
pogovorom uporabljati številke.
03:10
So if someone asks me,
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Torej če me nekdo vpraša:
03:11
"Hey, Liv, do you think you're going
to come along to that thing tonight?"
to come along to that thing tonight?"
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"Hej Liv, prideš na tisto
prireditev danes zvečer?"
prireditev danes zvečer?"
03:15
instead of just saying to them,
"Yeah, probably,"
"Yeah, probably,"
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jim bom namesto: "Ja, verjetno,"
03:17
I actually give them my best estimate --
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podala svojo najboljšo oceno-
03:19
say, 60 percent.
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recimo 60%.
03:21
Because -- I know that sounds
a little odd --
a little odd --
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Vem, da to zveni malo čudno.
03:23
but the thing is, I ran a poll on Twitter
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A naredila sem anketo na Twitter-ju
03:26
of what people understand
the word "probably" to mean,
the word "probably" to mean,
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o tem, kaj ljudje razumejo kot "verjetno"
03:29
and this was the spread of answers.
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in tole je razpon rezultatov.
03:30
Enormous!
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Ogromen je!
03:32
So apparently, it's absolutely useless
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Očitno je ta beseda čisto neuporabna
03:33
at actually conveying
any real information.
any real information.
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za posredovanje
kakršnih koli konkretnih informacij.
kakršnih koli konkretnih informacij.
03:36
So if you guys catch yourselves
using these vague words,
using these vague words,
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Če se ujamete,
da uporabljate te nejasne besede,
da uporabljate te nejasne besede,
03:40
like "probably" or "sometimes,"
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kot so "verjetno" ali "včasih,"
03:43
try, instead, using numbers,
because when we speak in numbers,
because when we speak in numbers,
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poskusite raje uporabiti številke.
Kajti ko govorimo v številkah,
Kajti ko govorimo v številkah,
03:46
we know what lands
in the other person's brain.
in the other person's brain.
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vemo, kako bo to druga oseba razumela.
03:50
Now, the third thing I want
to touch on today is intuition.
to touch on today is intuition.
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Treta stvar, ki bi se je rada
dotaknila danes, je intuicija.
dotaknila danes, je intuicija.
03:55
How often have you seen
these kinds of inspirational memes
these kinds of inspirational memes
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Kako pogosto vidite takšne
inspirativne citate
inspirativne citate
03:58
in your Facebook feed?
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na svoji Facebookovi časovnici?
04:01
[Always trust your gut feeling
and never second-guess.]
and never second-guess.]
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[Vedno verjemi svojemu
nagonu in nikoli ne dvomi.]
nagonu in nikoli ne dvomi.]
04:03
They're nice, right?
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So prijetni, ne?
04:05
It's lovely. Yes. "Trust your soul."
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Ja, čudoviti so. "Zaupaj svoji duši."
04:09
Well, they're terrible advice.
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No, grozni nasveti so!
04:11
These are some of the best
poker players in the world right now.
poker players in the world right now.
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Tole so nekateri izmed najboljših
igralcev pokra na svetu, trenutno.
igralcev pokra na svetu, trenutno.
04:14
Do they look like people who live
purely off feelings and intuitions?
purely off feelings and intuitions?
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Ali izgledajo kot ljudje, ki se
zanašajo samo na občutke in intuicijo?
zanašajo samo na občutke in intuicijo?
04:19
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
04:20
Look at them!
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Samo poglejte jih!
04:21
Obviously, these guys
are about slow, careful analysis,
are about slow, careful analysis,
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Očitno je, da imajo ti fantje
raje počasno, previdno analizo,
raje počasno, previdno analizo,
04:26
and that's because the game
has outgrown the days
has outgrown the days
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to pa zato, ker je igra prerasla dni,
04:29
where pure street smarts
and people-reading
and people-reading
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ko si lahko z ulično pretkanostjo
in branjem ljudi,
in branjem ljudi,
04:32
can get you to the top.
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prišel do vrha.
04:33
And that's because our intuitions
aren't nearly as perfect
aren't nearly as perfect
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Naša intuicija namreč ni
niti približno tako nezmotljiva,
niti približno tako nezmotljiva,
04:37
as we'd like to believe.
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kot bi si želeli.
04:38
I mean, it'd be great,
whenever we're in a tough spot,
whenever we're in a tough spot,
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Bilo bi super, če bi se
nam, ko bi se znašli v zagati,
nam, ko bi se znašli v zagati,
04:41
to just have an answer appear to us
from some magical source of inspiration.
from some magical source of inspiration.
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rešitev kar čudežno utrnila iz
nekega magičnega vira navdiha.
nekega magičnega vira navdiha.
04:45
But in reality, our gut
is extremely vulnerable
is extremely vulnerable
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Ampak naši nagoni so močno podvrženi
04:48
to all kinds of wishful
thinking and biases.
thinking and biases.
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našim željam in predsodkom.
04:52
So then, what is our gut good for?
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Zakaj torej so naši instinkti dobri?
04:55
Well, all the studies I've read
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No, vse študije, ki sem jih prebrala
04:57
conclude that it's best-suited
for everyday things
for everyday things
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kažejo, da jih je najbolje
uporabljati za vsakdanje reči,
uporabljati za vsakdanje reči,
05:01
that we have lots
and lots of experience in,
and lots of experience in,
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s katerimi imamo veliko izkušenj.
05:03
like how we just know
that our friend is mad at us
that our friend is mad at us
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Recimo, ko začutimo, da je
naš prijatelj jezen na nas,
naš prijatelj jezen na nas,
05:06
before we've even said anything to them,
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preden z njim
spregovorimo eno samo besedo.
spregovorimo eno samo besedo.
05:08
or whether we can fit our car
into a tight parking spot.
into a tight parking spot.
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Ali pa ko ocenjujemo, če bomo
avto spravili v mali parkirni prostor.
avto spravili v mali parkirni prostor.
05:11
But when it comes to the really big stuff,
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Ampak zakaj bi pri pomembnih rečeh,
05:13
like what's our career path going to be
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recimo odločitvah o karieri
05:16
or who should we marry,
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ali izbiri zakonca,
05:17
why should we assume that our intuitions
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predpostavili, da je naša intuicija
05:21
are better calibrated for these
than slow, proper analysis?
than slow, proper analysis?
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boljša od počasne, resne analize?
05:25
I mean, they don't have
any data to be based off.
any data to be based off.
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Naše iskušnje v tem priemru
ne slonijo na podatkih.
ne slonijo na podatkih.
05:28
So my third lesson is,
while we shouldn't ignore our intuitions,
while we shouldn't ignore our intuitions,
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Moje tretje sporočilo je torej,
da ne smemo ignorirati naše intuicije,
da ne smemo ignorirati naše intuicije,
05:32
we shouldn't overprivilege them either.
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a vanje ne smemo niti
polagati preveč zaupanja.
polagati preveč zaupanja.
05:34
And I'd like to summarize
these three lessons today
these three lessons today
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Svoje tri današnj nauke, bi rada povzela
05:37
with my own set of memes,
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s svojim lastnim setom citatov
05:38
with more of a poker-player twist.
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s pokerskim pridihom.
05:41
"Success is sweetest when you achieve it
across a large sample size."
across a large sample size."
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"Uspeh je najslajši, ko ga
dosegaš pri velikem vzorcu."
dosegaš pri velikem vzorcu."
05:46
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:47
"Your gut is your friend
and so is a cost-benefit analysis.
and so is a cost-benefit analysis.
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"Tvoj nagon je tvoj prijatelj
in analiza stroškov in koristi prav tako."
in analiza stroškov in koristi prav tako."
05:52
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:53
"The future is unknown, but you can
damn well try and estimate it."
damn well try and estimate it."
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"Prihodnost je neznana,
vendar pa jo lahko poskušiš predvideti."
vendar pa jo lahko poskušiš predvideti."
05:58
Thank you.
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Hvala.
05:59
(Applause)
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(Aplavz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Liv Boeree - Science communicator, games specialistLiv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world.
Why you should listen
Liv Boeree is a science communicator and games specialist. A former professional poker player, she has won multiple championship titles on the international poker circuit and was the #1 ranked female player in 2016. Previously, she studied astrophysics and became fascinated with applying scientific thinking to everyday life. This introduced her to effective altruism: a philosophical movement that uses evidence and reason to identify and mitigate the world's most pressing problems. In 2014, she co-founded Raising for Effective Giving, a non-profit that fundraises for the most globally impactful charities and research organizations.
Liv Boeree | Speaker | TED.com