TED2014
Nicholas Negroponte: A 30-year history of the future
Nikolas Negroponte (Nicholas Negroponte): Tridesetogodišnja istorija budućnosti
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Osnivač Laboratorije za medije MIT-a, Nikolas Negroponte, vodi vas na putovanje kroz zadnjih 30 godina tehnologije. Kao savršen predviđač, pokazuje interfejse i inovacije koje je predvideo '70-ih i '80-ih godina, koje su tada ismejali, a danas su sveprisutni. I ostavlja vas s jednim predviđanjem (apsurdnim? briljantnim?) za sledećih 30 godina.
Nicholas Negroponte - Tech visionary
The founder of the MIT Media Lab, Nicholas Negroponte pushed the edge of the information revolution as an inventor, thinker and angel investor. He's the driving force behind One Laptop per Child, building computers for children in the developing world. Full bio
The founder of the MIT Media Lab, Nicholas Negroponte pushed the edge of the information revolution as an inventor, thinker and angel investor. He's the driving force behind One Laptop per Child, building computers for children in the developing world. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
(Video) Nicholas Negroponte:
Can we switch to the video disc,
Can we switch to the video disc,
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(Video) Nikolas Negroponte:
Možemo li da pređemo
na video disk koji je u "plej" režimu?
na video disk koji je u "plej" režimu?
00:15
which is in play mode?
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00:17
I'm really interested in how you put people and computers together.
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Stvarno me zanima kako spojiti
ljude i kompjutere.
ljude i kompjutere.
00:22
We will be using the TV screens or their equivalents
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Koristićemo TV ekrane
ili njihove ekvivalente
ili njihove ekvivalente
00:25
for electronic books of the future.
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za elektronske knjige budućnosti.
00:30
(Music, crosstalk)
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(Muzika, preklapanje govora)
...vrlo zainteresovan za ekrane
osetljive na dodir,
osetljive na dodir,
00:50
Very interested in touch-sensitive displays,
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00:52
high-tech, high-touch, not having
to pick up your fingers to use them.
to pick up your fingers to use them.
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ne morate da koristite prste
da biste ih koristili.
da biste ih koristili.
00:56
There is another way where computers
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Postoji i drugi način gde ljudi
00:58
touch people: wearing, physically wearing.
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dodiruju kompjutere: noseći ih na sebi.
01:08
Suddenly on September 11th,
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Iznenada, 11. septembra,
01:10
the world got bigger.
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svet je postao veći.
01:13
NN: Thank you. (Applause)
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NN: Hvala vam (Aplauz)
01:16
Thank you.
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Hvala.
01:18
When I was asked to do this,
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Kada su me zamolili da uradim ovo,
01:20
I was also asked to look at all 14 TED Talks
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takođe su me zamolili da pogledam
svih 14 TED govora
svih 14 TED govora
01:24
that I had given,
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koje sam održao,
01:26
chronologically.
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hronološkim redom.
01:28
The first one was actually two hours.
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Prvi je trajao dva sata.
01:30
The second one was an hour,
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Drugi je bio sat,
01:31
and then they became half hours,
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a onda su postali polusatni,
01:33
and all I noticed was my bald spot getting bigger.
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i sve što sam primetio bila je
moja ćela koja se povećavala.
moja ćela koja se povećavala.
01:37
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:38
Imagine seeing your life, 30 years of it, go by,
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Zamislite da posmatrate svoj život,
30 godina, kako prolazi,
30 godina, kako prolazi,
01:43
and it was, to say the least,
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i za mene je to bilo, u najmanju ruku
01:46
for me, quite a shocking experience.
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prilično šokantno iskustvo.
01:50
So what I'm going to do in my time
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Tako da ću za svoje vreme
01:52
is try and share with you what happened
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pokušati da vam prenesem
01:54
during the 30 years,
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šta se desilo za 30 godina,
01:55
and then also make a prediction,
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a onda i predvideti
01:58
and then tell you a little bit
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i reći vam malo
02:00
about what I'm doing next.
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o tome šta ću raditi sledeće.
02:03
And I put on a slide
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Stavio sam na slajd
02:06
where TED 1 happened in my life.
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kada se TED 1 dogodio u mom životu.
02:10
And it's rather important
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I prilično je važno
02:12
because I had done 15 years of research before it,
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jer sam radio 15 godina
istraživanja pre toga,
istraživanja pre toga,
02:16
so I had a backlog, so it was easy.
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tako da sam imao zalihe, pa je bilo lako.
02:18
It's not that I was Fidel Castro
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Nije da sam Fidel Kastro
02:20
and I could talk for two hours,
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i da mogu da govorim dva sata,
02:22
or Bucky Fuller.
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ili Baki Fuler.
02:23
I had 15 years of stuff,
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Ja sam imao 15 godina nečega
02:25
and the Media Lab was about to start.
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i Laboratorija za medije
je trebalo da počne sa radom.
je trebalo da počne sa radom.
02:27
So that was easy.
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Tako da je bilo lako.
02:29
But there are a couple of things
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Ali ima par stvari
02:32
about that period
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u vezi s tim periodom
02:33
and about what happened that are
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i onim što se desilo, koje su
02:36
really quite important.
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prilično važne.
02:37
One is that
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Jedna je da je
02:40
it was a period when computers
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to bio period kada kompjuteri
02:43
weren't yet for people.
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nisu još bili za ljude.
02:45
And the other thing that sort of happened
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A druga stvar koja se desila
02:49
during that time is that
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negde u to vreme je
02:52
we were considered sissy computer scientists.
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da su nas smatrali kompjuterskim
stručnjacima mlakonjama.
stručnjacima mlakonjama.
02:55
We weren't considered the real thing.
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Nisu nas shvatali ozbiljno.
02:57
So what I'm going to show you is, in retrospect,
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Tako da je ono što ću vam
pokazati u retrospektivi
pokazati u retrospektivi
03:01
a lot more interesting and a lot more accepted
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mnogo interesantnije i prihvaćenije
03:03
than it was at the time.
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nego što je bilo tada.
03:05
So I'm going to characterize the years
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Opisaću godine
03:08
and I'm even going to go back
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i čak ću otići dalje unazad
03:10
to some very early work of mine,
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do svojih vrlo ranih radova,
03:12
and this was the kind of stuff I was doing in the '60s:
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i ovo je otprilike
ono što sam radio '60-ih:
ono što sam radio '60-ih:
03:15
very direct manipulation,
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vrlo direktna manipulacija,
03:17
very influenced as I studied architecture
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pod uticajem arhitekte Moše Safdija
03:19
by the architect Moshe Safdie,
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jer sam studirao arhitekturu.
03:22
and you can see that we even built robotic things
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Možete videti da smo
čak napravili robotske stvari
čak napravili robotske stvari
03:24
that could build habitat-like structures.
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koje su mogle da grade
strukture u obliku staništa.
strukture u obliku staništa.
03:27
And this for me was
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Ovo za mene još nije bila
03:29
not yet the Media Lab,
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Laboratorija za medije,
03:31
but was the beginning of what I'll call
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ali je bio početak onoga što nazivam
03:33
sensory computing,
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senzorno računarstvo,
03:35
and I pick fingers
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i izabrao sam prste,
03:37
partly because everybody thought it was ridiculous.
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delom zato što su svi mislili
da je to apsurdno.
da je to apsurdno.
03:41
Papers were published
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Objavljivani su radovi
03:43
about how stupid it was to use fingers.
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o tome kako je glupo koristiti prste.
03:47
Three reasons: One was they were low-resolution.
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Iz tri razloga: prvo, niske su rezolucije.
03:50
The other is your hand would occlude
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Drugi je da će vaša ruka zakloniti
03:52
what you wanted to see,
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ono što želite da vidite
03:54
and the third, which was the winner,
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i treći, koji je pobedio,
03:55
was that your fingers would get the screen dirty,
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bio je da će vaši prsti uprljati ekran
03:59
and hence, fingers would never be
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i zbog toga, prsti nikad neće biti
04:01
a device that you'd use.
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sredstvo koje biste koristili.
04:03
And this was a device we built in the '70s,
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Ovo je uređaj koji smo
napravili u '70-im,
napravili u '70-im,
04:06
which has never even been picked up.
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koji nije nikad prihvaćen.
04:08
It's not just touch sensitive,
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On nije samo osetljiv
04:10
it's pressure sensitive.
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na dodir, već i na pritisak.
04:12
(Video) Voice: Put a yellow circle there.
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(Video) Glas: Stavi žuti krug tamo.
04:14
NN: Later work, and again this was before TED 1 —
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NN: Kasniji rad, opet pre TED-a 1 -
04:17
(Video) Voice: Move that west of the diamond.
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(Video) Glas: Pomeri to
levo od dijamanta.
levo od dijamanta.
04:20
Create a large green circle there.
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Napravi veliki zeleni krug tamo.
04:23
Man: Aw, shit.
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Čovek: Oh, sranje.
04:25
NN: — was to sort of do interface concurrently,
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NN: - bio je da se napravi
istovremeni interfejs,
istovremeni interfejs,
04:29
so when you talked and you pointed
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tako da kad pričate i pokazujete
04:31
and you had, if you will,
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imate, da kažem,
04:34
multiple channels.
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višestruke kanale.
04:35
Entebbe happened.
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Desio se Entebe.
04:37
1976, Air France was hijacked,
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Godine 1976. Er Frans je otet
04:41
taken to Entebbe,
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i odveden u Entebe,
04:43
and the Israelis not only did an extraordinary rescue,
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a Izraelci nisu samo obavili
izvanredno spasavanje,
izvanredno spasavanje,
04:48
they did it partly because they had practiced
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oni su to uradili jer su vežbali
04:50
on a physical model of the airport,
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na fizičkom modelu aerodroma,
04:52
because they had built the airport,
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jer su sagradili aerodrom,
04:53
so they built a model in the desert,
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sagradili su model u pustinji,
04:55
and when they arrived at Entebbe,
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i kad su stigli u Entebe,
04:57
they knew where to go because
they had actually been there.
they had actually been there.
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znali su gde treba da idu
jer su u stvari već bili tamo.
jer su u stvari već bili tamo.
05:00
The U.S. government asked some of us, '76,
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Vlada SAD-a je '76. zamolila neke od nas
05:03
if we could replicate that computationally,
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da napravimo kompjutersku kopiju toga
05:06
and of course somebody like myself says yes.
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i naravno neko poput mene je rekao: da.
05:08
Immediately, you get a contract,
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Istog momenta dobijete ugovor,
05:10
Department of Defense,
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Ministarstva odbrane
05:11
and we built this truck and this rig.
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i napravili smo ovaj kamion i platformu.
05:14
We did sort of a simulation,
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Uradili smo simulaciju
05:16
because you had video discs,
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jer ste imali video diskove
05:18
and again, this is '76.
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i opet, ovo je '76.
05:21
And then many years later,
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I onda, mnogo godina kasnije,
05:23
you get this truck,
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dobili ste ovaj automobil
05:25
and so you have Google Maps.
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i Gugl mape.
05:28
Still people thought,
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I dalje su ljudi mislili:
05:29
no, that was not serious computer science,
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ne, to nije ozbiljna kompjuterska nauka,
05:33
and it was a man named Jerry Wiesner,
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a bio je čovek po imenu Džeri Vizner,
05:35
who happened to be the president of MIT,
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koji je bio predsednik MIT-a,
05:38
who did think it was computer science.
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koji je mislio da to jeste
kompjuterska nauka.
kompjuterska nauka.
05:40
And one of the keys for anybody
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Jedna od ključnih stvari za svakoga
05:43
who wants to start something in life:
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ko hoće da započne nešto u životu:
05:46
Make sure your president is part of it.
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pobrinite se da vaš predsednik
bude deo toga.
bude deo toga.
05:49
So when I was doing the Media Lab,
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Kad sam ja radio
u Laboratoriji za medije,
u Laboratoriji za medije,
05:52
it was like having a gorilla in the front seat.
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to je bilo kao da sam imao
gorilu na prednjem sedištu.
gorilu na prednjem sedištu.
05:56
If you were stopped for speeding
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Ako bi vas zaustavili zbog brze vožnje
05:58
and the officer looked in the window
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i policajac pogleda kroz prozor
06:00
and saw who was in the passenger seat,
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i vidi ko je na suvozačkom sedištu,
06:02
then, "Oh, continue on, sir."
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rekao bi: "Oh gospodine,
izvolite prođite."
izvolite prođite."
06:04
And so we were able,
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I tako smo mogli,
06:06
and this is a cute, actually, device, parenthetically.
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i ovo je u stvari simpatičan uređaj.
06:09
This was a lenticular photograph of Jerry Wiesner
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Ovo je lentikularna
fotografija Džerija Viznera,
fotografija Džerija Viznera,
06:13
where the only thing that changed in the photograph
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gde su jedine izmenjene stvari
06:15
were the lips.
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bile usne.
06:16
So when you oscillated that little piece
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I kada biste klatili ovu
lentikularnu fotografiju
lentikularnu fotografiju
06:19
of lenticular sheet with his photograph,
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sa njegovim likom,
06:22
it would be in lip sync
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usne bi bile sinhronizovane
06:24
with zero bandwidth.
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sa frekventnim opsegom nula.
06:27
It was a zero-bandwidth teleconferencing system
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To je tada bio sistem za telekonferenciju
06:29
at the time.
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sa širinom frekventnog opsega nula.
06:31
So this was the Media Lab's —
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Ovo je bilo iz Laboratorije za medije -
ono što smo rekli da bismo radili,
06:35
this is what we said we'd do,
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06:37
that the world of computers, publishing,
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da bismo spojili svet kompjutera,
06:39
and so on would come together.
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izdavaštva i tako dalje.
06:42
Again, not generally accepted,
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Ponovo, generalno neprihvaćeno,
06:44
but very much part of TED in the early days.
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ali je bilo deo TEDa u ranim danima.
06:49
And this is really where we were headed.
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I u tom smo pravcu, u stvari, krenuli.
06:52
And that created the Media Lab.
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I to je stvorilo Laboratoriju za medije.
06:54
One of the things about age
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Jedna od karakteristika godina je to
06:58
is that I can tell you with great confidence,
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da mogu sa sigurnošću da vam kažem
07:03
I've been to the future.
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da sam bio u budućnosti.
07:05
I've been there, actually, many times.
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Bio sam tamo, u stvari, mnogo puta.
07:08
And the reason I say that is,
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Razlog zašto to kažem je,
07:10
how many times in my life have I said,
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koliko puta sam u životu rekao:
07:12
"Oh, in 10 years, this will happen,"
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"Ah, za 10 godina, to će se desiti,"
07:14
and then 10 years comes.
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i onda prođe 10 godina.
07:16
And then you say, "Oh, in
five years, this will happen."
five years, this will happen."
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I onda kažete:
"Za 5 godina, to će se desiti."
"Za 5 godina, to će se desiti."
07:18
And then five years comes.
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I onda prođe 5 godina.
07:20
So I say this a little bit with having felt
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Kažem to malo sa osećanjem
07:23
that I'd been there a number of times,
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da sam prošao to više puta,
07:26
and one of the things that is most quoted
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i jedna od najcitiranijih stvari
07:29
that I've ever said
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koje sam ikada rekao je:
07:30
is that computing is not about computers,
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"računarstvo nije više tu zbog računara,
[već zbog življenja."]
07:33
and that didn't quite get enough traction,
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i to nije baš povuklo mnogo toga,
07:36
and then it started to.
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a onda je počelo.
07:38
It started to because people caught on
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Počelo je jer su ljudi shvatili
07:42
that the medium wasn't the message.
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da medijum nije poruka.
07:45
And the reason I show this car
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Razlog što pokazujem ovaj auto
07:47
in actually a rather ugly slide
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na prilično ružnom slajdu
07:50
is just again to tell you the kind of story
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je opet da bih vam ispričao priču
07:52
that characterized a little bit of my life.
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koja karakteriše jedan deo mog života.
07:55
This is a student of mine
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Ovo je moj student
07:57
who had done a Ph.D. called "Backseat Driver."
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koji je uradio doktorsku disertaciju
"Vozač sa zadnjeg sedišta".
08:01
It was in the early days of GPS,
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To je bilo u ranim danima GPS-a,
08:03
the car knew where it was,
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automobil je znao gde se nalazi
08:04
and it would give audio instructions
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i davao je zvučne instrukcije vozaču
08:06
to the driver, when to turn right,
when to turn left and so on.
when to turn left and so on.
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kada da skrene desno, kada levo itd.
08:10
Turns out, there are a lot of things
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Mnogo stvari je
08:11
in those instructions that back in that period
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u tim instrukcijama u to vreme
predstavljalo priličan problem,
08:14
were pretty challenging,
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08:16
like what does it mean, take the next right?
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na primer, šta znači:
skrenite u sledeću desno?
skrenite u sledeću desno?
08:19
Well, if you're coming up on a street,
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Pa, ako idete ulicom,
08:21
the next right's probably the one after,
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sledeća desno je verovatno jedna posle,
08:23
and there are lots of issues,
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i tu ima mnogo problema,
08:24
and the student did a wonderful thesis,
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i student je uradio divnu disertaciju,
08:26
and the MIT patent office said "Don't patent it.
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a služba za patente MIT-a je rekla:
"Ne patentirajte to.
"Ne patentirajte to.
08:31
It'll never be accepted.
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To nikada neće biti prihvaćeno.
08:33
The liabilities are too large.
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Obaveze su prevelike.
08:35
There will be insurance issues.
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Biće problema sa osiguranjem.
08:37
Don't patent it."
190
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Ne patentirajte to."
08:38
So we didn't,
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I nismo,
08:40
but it shows you how people, again, at times,
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ali to vam pokazuje kako ljudi ponekad,
08:43
don't really look at what's happening.
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u stvari, ne gledaju šta se dešava.
08:47
Some work, and I'll just go
through these very quickly,
through these very quickly,
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Neki radovi, i proći ću kroz to vrlo brzo,
08:50
a lot of sensory stuff.
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mnogo stvari sa senzorima.
08:52
You might recognize a young Yo-Yo Ma
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Možda prepoznajete mladog Jo-Jo Ma,
08:54
and tracking his body for playing
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praćenje njegovog tela dok svira
08:58
the cello or the hypercello.
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čelo ili hiperčelo.
09:01
These fellows literally walked
around like that at the time.
around like that at the time.
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Ovi tipovi su bukvalno
hodali ovako u to vreme.
hodali ovako u to vreme.
09:05
It's now a little bit more discreet
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Sada je to malo diskretnije
09:07
and more commonplace.
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i uobičajenije.
09:09
And then there are at least three heroes
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Onda, tu je najmanje tri heroja
koje želim brzo da pomenem.
09:12
I want to quickly mention.
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09:13
Marvin Minsky, who taught me a lot
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Marvin Minski, koji me je dosta naučio
09:15
about common sense,
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o zdravom razumu,
09:17
and I will talk briefly about Muriel Cooper,
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i reći ću kratko o Mjurijel Kuper,
09:20
who was very important to Ricky Wurman
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koja je bila veoma važna Rikiju Vurmanu
09:23
and to TED, and in fact, when she got onstage,
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i TEDu i u stvari, kada je
dospela na binu,
dospela na binu,
09:26
she said, the first thing she said was,
209
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1947
prva stvar koju je rekla bila je:
09:28
"I introduced Ricky to Nicky."
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"Upoznala sam Rikija sa Nikijem."
09:30
And nobody calls me Nicky
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Niko me ne zove Niki,
09:32
and nobody calls Richard Ricky,
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a Ričarda niko ne zove Riki,
09:34
so nobody knew who she was talking about.
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tako da niko nije znao
o čemu ona to priča.
o čemu ona to priča.
09:37
And then, of course, Seymour Papert,
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I naravno, Simor Papert,
09:40
who is the person who said,
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osoba koja je rekla:
"Ne možete razmišljati o razmišljanju,
09:41
"You can't think about thinking
216
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1415
09:43
unless you think about thinking about something."
217
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osim ako razmišljate
o razmišljanju o nečemu."
o razmišljanju o nečemu."
09:45
And that's actually — you can unpack that later.
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Možete da razmislite o tome kasnije.
09:51
It's a pretty profound statement.
219
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To je prilično duboka misao.
09:55
I'm showing some slides
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Pokazujem neke slajdove
09:57
that were from TED 2,
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koji su sa TEDa 2,
09:59
a little silly as slides, perhaps.
222
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malo blesave slajdove, možda.
10:02
Then I felt television really was about displays.
223
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Tada sam osetio da su
na televiziji najbitniji ekrani.
na televiziji najbitniji ekrani.
10:08
Again, now we're past TED 1,
224
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Tada je prošao TED 1,
10:11
but just around the time of TED 2,
225
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ali negde oko TEDa 2,
10:14
and what I'd like to mention here is,
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2149
i želeo bih ovde da pomenem
10:16
even though you could imagine
227
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2115
da iako ste mogli da zamislite
10:18
intelligence in the device,
228
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inteligenciju u uređaju,
10:20
I look today at some of the work
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danas gledam neke radove
10:22
being done about the Internet of Things,
230
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o "Internetu stvari"
10:24
and I think it's kind of tragically pathetic,
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i mislim da su tragično patetični,
10:27
because what has happened is people take
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jer ono što se desilo je to da ljudi uzmu
10:29
the oven panel and put it on your cell phone,
233
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displej sa rerne i stave ga
na mobilni telefon,
na mobilni telefon,
10:33
or the door key onto your cell phone,
234
621418
1789
ili ključ od vrata stave na mobilni,
10:35
just taking it and bringing it to you,
235
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2173
samo uzmu i donesu vam,
10:37
and in fact that's actually what you don't want.
236
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a to je u stvari ono što ne želite.
10:40
You want to put a chicken in the oven,
237
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Želite da stavite pile u rernu
10:42
and the oven says, "Aha, it's a chicken,"
238
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i da rerna kaže: "Aha, to je pile,"
10:44
and it cooks the chicken.
239
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1149
i ispeče pile.
10:45
"Oh, it's cooking the chicken for Nicholas,
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"Aha, pile je za Nikolasa,
10:47
and he likes it this way and that way."
241
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1834
a on ga voli ovako ili onako pečeno."
10:49
So the intelligence, instead of being in the device,
242
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Tako da smo inteligenciju,
umesto da bude u uređaju,
umesto da bude u uređaju,
10:52
we have started today
243
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1709
danas počeli
10:53
to move it back onto the cell phone
244
641998
2112
da vraćamo u mobilne telefone
10:56
or closer to the user,
245
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ili bliže korisniku,
10:58
not a particularly enlightened view
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ne baš prosvetljen pogled
11:00
of the Internet of Things.
247
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"Interneta stvari".
11:03
Television, again, television what I said today,
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3464
Televizija koju sam pomenuo danas,
11:06
that was back in 1990,
249
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2622
kakva je bila 1990.
11:09
and the television of tomorrow
250
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i televizija sutrašnjice
11:10
would look something like that.
251
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2323
bi izgledala otprilike ovako.
11:13
Again, people, but they laughed cynically,
252
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Ljudi su se smejali cinično.
11:16
they didn't laugh with much appreciation.
253
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Nisu se smejali sa odobravanjem.
11:22
Telecommunications in the 1990s,
254
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Telekomunikacije '90-ih -
11:24
George Gilder decided that he would call this diagram
255
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5700
Džordž Gilder je odlučio
da nazove ovaj dijagram
da nazove ovaj dijagram
11:30
the Negroponte switch.
256
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2429
"Negroponte prekidač".
11:32
I'm probably much less famous than George,
257
680862
2006
Ja sam verovatno mnogo manje
poznat od Džordža,
poznat od Džordža,
11:34
so when he called it the Negroponte switch, it stuck,
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3607
i kad ga je nazvao Negroponte
prekidač, naziv se zadržao,
prekidač, naziv se zadržao,
11:38
but the idea of things that came in the ground
259
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2665
ali ideja da stvari koje
prolaze kroz zemlju
prolaze kroz zemlju
11:41
would go in the air and stuff in the air
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1715
pređu u vazduh, a stvari u vazduhu
11:42
would go into the ground
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1459
se premeste u zemlju
11:44
has played itself out.
262
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1885
se iscrpela.
11:46
That is the original slide from that year,
263
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To je originalni slajd iz te godine,
11:50
and it has worked in lockstep obedience.
264
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3375
i radio je vojničkom poslušnošću.
11:54
We started Wired magazine.
265
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2167
Pokrenuli smo časopis Vajerd.
11:56
Some people, I remember we shared
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Neki ljudi... sećam se da smo povremeno
12:00
the reception desk periodically,
267
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2722
delili recepcionarski sto,
12:02
and some parent called up irate that his son
268
710944
4058
i neki roditelj je zvao,
besan što je njegov sin
besan što je njegov sin
12:07
had given up Sports Illustrated
269
715002
2229
odustao od Sports ilustrejtida
12:09
to subscribe for Wired,
270
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1879
da bi se pretplatio na Vajerd,
12:11
and he said, "Are you some
porno magazine or something?"
porno magazine or something?"
271
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3197
i rekao: "Jeste li vi neki porno časopis?"
12:14
and couldn't understand why his son
272
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Nije razumeo zašto bi njegovog sina
12:16
would be interested in Wired, at any rate.
273
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uopšte interesovao Vajerd.
12:20
I will go through this a little quicker.
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2604
Proći ću kroz ovo malo brže.
12:23
This is my favorite, 1995,
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Ovo je moja omiljena, iz 1995.,
12:26
back page of Newsweek magazine.
276
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3037
naslovna strana časopisa Njusvik.
12:29
Okay. Read it. (Laughter)
277
737930
1969
Dobro. Pročitajte. (Smeh)
["Nikolas Negroponte, direktor MIT Media Lab-a, predviđa da ćemo uskoro kupovati knjige i novine preko interneta. Važi." - Kliford Stoll, Njusvik, 1995]
12:31
["Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Internet. Uh, sure."
—Clifford Stoll, Newsweek, 1995]
—Clifford Stoll, Newsweek, 1995]
278
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1901
12:33
You must admit that gives you,
279
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1645
Priznaćete da vam to pruža,
12:35
at least it gives me pleasure
280
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2227
barem meni pruža zadovoljstvo
12:37
when somebody says how dead wrong you are.
281
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3758
kad neko kaže kako se grdno varate.
12:41
"Being Digital" came out.
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2146
Izašla je knjiga "Biti digitalan".
12:43
For me, it gave me an opportunity
283
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2641
To mi je dalo priliku
12:46
to be more in the trade press
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2202
da budem više u
profesionalnim publikacijama
profesionalnim publikacijama
12:48
and get this out to the public,
285
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3271
i iznesem to u javnost,
12:51
and it also allowed us to build the new Media Lab,
286
759690
3015
i takođe nam je omogućilo da izgradimo
novu Laboratoriju za medije.
novu Laboratoriju za medije.
12:54
which if you haven't been to, visit,
287
762705
1933
Ako je niste posetili, učinite to
12:56
because it's a beautiful piece of architecture
288
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3019
jer je to lepo arhitektonsko delo,
12:59
aside from being a wonderful place to work.
289
767657
2825
pored toga što je divno mesto za rad.
Ovo su stvari koje smo govorili
na ovim TED konferencijama.
na ovim TED konferencijama.
13:02
So these are the things we were saying in those TEDs.
290
770482
2695
13:05
[Today, multimedia is a desktop or living room experience, because the apparatus is so clunky. This will change dramatically with small, bright, thin, high-resolution displays. — 1995]
291
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1567
[Danas, multimedijja je praksa na radnom stolu ili u radnoj sobi, jer je oprema isuviše nezgrapna. Ovo će se dramatično promeniti sa malim, svetlim, tankim ekranima visoke rezolucije. - 1995.]
13:06
We came to them.
292
774744
1492
Došli smo do njih.
13:08
I looked forward to it every year.
293
776236
1992
Radovao sam im se svake godine.
13:10
It was the party that Ricky Wurman never had
294
778228
3052
To je bila žurka koju
Riki Vurman nije imao,
Riki Vurman nije imao,
13:13
in the sense that he invited many of his old friends,
295
781280
2909
u smislu da pozove mnoge stare prijatelje,
13:16
including myself.
296
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1659
uključujući i mene.
13:17
And then something for me changed
297
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2392
A onda se za mene nešto promenilo
13:20
pretty profoundly.
298
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1469
prilično duboko.
13:21
I became more involved with computers and learning
299
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3953
Počeo sam više da se bavim
kompjuterima i učenjem
kompjuterima i učenjem
13:25
and influenced by Seymour,
300
793662
2462
i pod uticajem Simora,
13:28
but particularly looking at learning
301
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2615
ali posebno gledajući na učenje
13:30
as something that is best approximated
302
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3910
kao na nešto što je najpribližnije
13:34
by computer programming.
303
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1754
kompjuterskom programiranju.
13:36
When you write a computer program,
304
804403
2014
Kada napišete kompjuterski program,
13:38
you've got to not just list things out
305
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2795
ne treba samo da izlistate stvari
13:41
and sort of take an algorithm
306
809212
1728
i uzmete algoritam
13:42
and translate it into a set of instructions,
307
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2876
i prevedete ga u skup instrukcija,
13:45
but when there's a bug, and all programs have bugs,
308
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2683
već kad postoji softverska greška,
a svi programi imaju greške,
a svi programi imaju greške,
13:48
you've got to de-bug it.
309
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1709
treba da je otklonite.
13:50
You've got to go in, change it,
310
818208
1990
Treba da uđete, promenite je
13:52
and then re-execute,
311
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1622
i ponovo pokrenete
13:53
and you iterate,
312
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1804
i ponovite to,
13:55
and that iteration is really
313
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2907
i to ponavljanje je u stvari
13:58
a very, very good approximation of learning.
314
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2903
vrlo približno učenju.
14:01
So that led to my own work with Seymour
315
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3667
To je dovelo do mog rada sa Simorom
14:05
in places like Cambodia
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2358
na mestu kao što je Kambodža
14:07
and the starting of One Laptop per Child.
317
835459
2904
i pokretanju akcije
"Jedan laptop po detetu"
"Jedan laptop po detetu"
14:10
Enough TED Talks on One Laptop per Child,
318
838363
2814
Dosta je bilo TED govora o ovoj akciji,
14:13
so I'll go through it very fast,
319
841177
1761
pa ću brzo proći kroz to,
14:14
but it did give us the chance
320
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3925
ali to nam je dalo priliku
14:18
to do something at a relatively large scale
321
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3506
da uradimo nešto na
relativno širokom planu
relativno širokom planu
14:22
in the area of learning, development and computing.
322
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3993
u oblasti učenja, razvoja i računarstva.
14:26
Very few people know that One Laptop per Child
323
854362
2817
Malo ljudi zna da je
"Jedan laptop po detetu"
"Jedan laptop po detetu"
14:29
was a $1 billion project,
324
857179
2635
bio projekat vredan milijardu dolara
14:31
and it was, at least over the seven years I ran it,
325
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2647
i bio je, barem tokom 7 godina
koliko sam ga ja vodio,
koliko sam ga ja vodio,
14:34
but even more important, the World Bank
326
862461
2146
ali još važnije je da Svetska banka
14:36
contributed zero, USAID zero.
327
864607
3115
i USAID nisu dali ništa.
14:39
It was mostly the countries
using their own treasuries,
using their own treasuries,
328
867722
4155
To su bile uglavnom te zemlje,
koje su koristile svoja bogatstva,
14:43
which is very interesting,
329
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1603
što je veoma interesantno,
14:45
at least to me it was very interesting
330
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1356
barem je meni bilo,
14:46
in terms of what I plan to do next.
331
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3144
što se tiče toga šta planiram
da uradim sledeće.
da uradim sledeće.
14:49
So these are the various places it happened.
332
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3025
Ovo su razna mesta gde je to realizovano.
14:53
I then tried an experiment,
333
881005
2902
Onda sam probao jedan eksperiment
14:55
and the experiment happened in Ethiopia.
334
883907
4281
koji se desio u Etiopiji.
15:00
And here's the experiment.
335
888188
2642
I evo eksperimenta.
15:02
The experiment is,
336
890830
1631
Eksperiment je:
15:04
can learning happen where there are no schools.
337
892461
3780
da li može da se uči tamo gde nema škola.
15:08
And we dropped off tablets
338
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2530
Dali smo im tablete
15:10
with no instructions
339
898771
2243
bez instrukcija
15:13
and let the children figure it out.
340
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3273
i pustili decu da se snađu.
15:16
And in a short period of time,
341
904287
3647
I za kratko vreme,
15:19
they not only
342
907934
2098
ne samo
15:22
turned them on and were using 50 apps per child
343
910032
3072
da su ih uključili i koristili
50 aplikacija po detetu
50 aplikacija po detetu
15:25
within five days,
344
913104
2102
u toku pet dana,
15:27
they were singing "ABC" songs within two weeks,
345
915206
2934
ili pevali pesmice po abecedi
za dve nedelje,
za dve nedelje,
15:30
but they hacked Android within six months.
346
918140
3893
već su hakovali Android za šest meseci.
15:34
And so that seemed sufficiently interesting.
347
922033
3518
I tako je to izgledalo
dovoljno interesantno.
dovoljno interesantno.
15:37
This is perhaps the best picture I have.
348
925551
2559
Ovo je možda najbolja slika koju imam.
15:40
The kid on your right
349
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4151
Dete s vaše desne strane
15:44
has sort of nominated himself as teacher.
350
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2475
je nominovalo sebe za učitelja.
15:46
Look at the kid on the left, and so on.
351
934736
2520
Pogledajte dete s leve strane, itd.
15:49
There are no adults involved in this at all.
352
937256
3150
Odrasli uopšte nisu uključeni u ovo.
Pitao sam da li možemo ovo da uradimo
15:52
So I said, well can we do this
353
940406
1424
15:53
at a larger scale?
354
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1597
u većem obimu?
15:55
And what is it that's missing?
355
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2481
I šta je to što nedostaje?
15:57
The kids are giving a press conference at this point,
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Deca drže konferenciju za štampu
u ovom momentu
u ovom momentu
16:00
and sort of writing in the dirt.
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i pišu po prašini.
16:02
And the answer is, what is missing?
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I odgovor je, šta nedostaje?
16:06
And I'm going to skip over my prediction, actually,
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I preskočiću svoje predviđanje
16:08
because I'm running out of time,
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jer mi ponestaje vremena
16:10
and here's the question, is what's going to happen?
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i evo pitanja, šta će se desiti?
16:14
I think the challenge
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Mislim da je izazov
16:15
is to connect the last billion people,
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povezati poslednjih milijardu ljudi,
16:18
and connecting the last billion
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a povezivanje poslednje milijarde
16:21
is very different than connecting the next billion,
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je vrlo različito od
povezivanja sledeće milijarde,
povezivanja sledeće milijarde,
16:24
and the reason it's different
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a razlog je taj
16:25
is that the next billion
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što je sledeća milijarda
16:27
are sort of low-hanging fruit,
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lakše dostupna,
16:29
but the last billion are rural.
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ali poslednja milijarda su ruralni.
16:33
Being rural and being poor
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Biti ruralan i biti siromašan
16:36
are very different.
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je vrlo različito.
16:37
Poverty tends to be created by our society,
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Siromaštvo je obično kreirano
od strane našeg društva,
od strane našeg društva,
16:41
and the people in that community are not poor
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a ljudi u toj zajednici nisu uopšte
16:47
in the same way at all.
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siromašni na isti način.
16:48
They may be primitive,
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Možda su primitivni,
16:50
but the way to approach it and to connect them,
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ali način da im priđemo i povežemo ih,
16:54
the history of One Laptop per Child,
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priča "Jednog laptopa po detetu",
16:56
and the experiment in Ethiopia,
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i eksperimenta u Etiopiji,
17:00
lead me to believe that we can in fact
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dovodi me do verovanja da možemo
17:03
do this in a very short period of time.
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da uradimo to
u kratkom vremenskom periodu.
u kratkom vremenskom periodu.
17:06
And so my plan,
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I moj plan je -
17:08
and unfortunately I haven't been able
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a nažalost nisam mogao
17:10
to get my partners at this point
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da nagovorim svoje partnere
da mi dozvole da ih najavim -
17:13
to let me announce them,
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17:14
but is to do this with a stationary satellite.
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da to uradimo sa stacionarnim satelitom.
17:19
There are many reasons
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Ima mnogo razloga
17:22
that stationary satellites aren't the best things,
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zašto stacionarni sateliti
nisu najbolje stvari,
nisu najbolje stvari,
17:26
but there are a lot of reasons why they are,
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ali ima i mnogo razloga zašto jesu,
17:29
and for two billion dollars,
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i za dve milijarde dolara
17:32
you can connect a lot more than 100 million people,
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možete povezati mnogo više
od 100 miliona ljudi,
od 100 miliona ljudi,
17:36
but the reason I picked two,
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ali razlog zašto sam izabrao dve,
17:39
and I will leave this as my last slide,
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i ostaviću ovo kao poslednji slajd,
17:42
is two billion dollars
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je to što je dve milijarde dolara
17:44
is what we were spending
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onoliko koliko potrošimo
17:47
in Afghanistan
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u Avganistanu
17:49
every week.
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svake nedelje.
17:51
So surely if we can connect
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I naravno, ako možemo da povežemo
17:54
Africa and the last billion people
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Afriku i poslednjih milijardu ljudi
17:57
for numbers like that,
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sa takvim ciframa,
17:58
we should be doing it.
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trebalo bi to da radimo.
18:00
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam mnogo.
18:02
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
18:05
Chris Anderson: Stay up there. Stay up there.
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Kris Anderson: Ostanite gore.
Ostanite gore.
Ostanite gore.
18:10
NN: You're going to give me extra time?
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N.N.: Daćete mi dodatno vreme?
18:12
CA: No. That was wickedly clever, wickedly clever.
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K.A.: Ne. To je bilo pametno.
18:14
You gamed it beautifully.
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Lepo ste se kladili.
18:16
Nicholas, what is your prediction?
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Nikolas, koje je Vaše predviđanje?
18:19
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
18:21
NN: Thank you for asking.
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N.N.: Hvala što pitate.
18:23
I'll tell you what my prediction is,
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Reći ću Vam šta je moje predviđanje,
18:26
and my prediction, and this is a prediction,
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2700
i to je predviđanje,
18:29
because it'll be 30 years. I won't be here.
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jer za 30 godina neću biti ovde.
18:31
But one of the things about learning how to read,
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Ali jedna stvar
u vezi sa učenjem da se čita.
u vezi sa učenjem da se čita.
18:36
we have been doing a lot of consuming
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Konzumiramo mnogo informacija
18:39
of information going through our eyes,
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našim očima,
18:41
and so that may be a very inefficient channel.
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a to je možda vrlo neefikasan kanal.
18:44
So my prediction is that we are
going to ingest information
going to ingest information
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Tako da je moje predviđanje
da ćemo variti informacije.
da ćemo variti informacije.
18:49
You're going to swallow a pill and know English.
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Progutaćete pilulu i znaćete engleski.
18:52
You're going to swallow a
pill and know Shakespeare.
pill and know Shakespeare.
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Progutaćete pilulu i znaćete Šekspira.
18:55
And the way to do it is through the bloodstream.
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I način da se to uradi je preko krvotoka.
18:58
So once it's in your bloodstream,
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Tako da kad vam se nađe u krvotoku,
19:00
it basically goes through it and gets into the brain,
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prolazi kroz njega i stiže u mozak,
19:02
and when it knows that it's in the brain
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i kad sazna da je stigla u mozak
19:04
in the different pieces,
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u više komada,
19:05
it deposits it in the right places.
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taloži se na pravim mestima.
19:08
So it's ingesting.
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Tako da je svarljivo.
K.A.: Da se niste slučajno
19:09
CA: Have you been hanging out
with Ray Kurzweil by any chance?
with Ray Kurzweil by any chance?
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1137819
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družili sa Rejom Kurcvajlom?
N.N.: Ne, ali sam se družio
sa Edom Bojdenom
sa Edom Bojdenom
19:12
NN: No, but I've been hanging
around with Ed Boyden
around with Ed Boyden
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19:15
and hanging around with one of the speakers
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1845
i sa jednim od govornika
19:17
who is here, Hugh Herr,
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koji je ovde, Hju Herom,
19:19
and there are a number of people.
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i sa velikim brojem ljudi.
19:21
This isn't quite as far-fetched,
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To nije tako neverovatno,
19:22
so 30 years from now.
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tako da 30 godina od sada...
19:25
CA: We will check it out.
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K.A.: Proverićemo.
19:27
We're going to be back and we're going
to play this clip 30 years from now,
to play this clip 30 years from now,
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Vratićemo se i pustićemo
ovaj video za 30 godina,
ovaj video za 30 godina,
19:29
and then all eat the red pill.
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i onda ćemo svi pojesti crvenu pilulu.
19:32
Well thank you for that.
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Hvala vam na tome.
19:34
Nicholas Negroponte.
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Nikolas Negroponte.
19:36
NN: Thank you.
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N.N.: Hvala vam.
19:37
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nicholas Negroponte - Tech visionaryThe founder of the MIT Media Lab, Nicholas Negroponte pushed the edge of the information revolution as an inventor, thinker and angel investor. He's the driving force behind One Laptop per Child, building computers for children in the developing world.
Why you should listen
A pioneer in the field of computer-aided design, Negroponte founded (and was the first director of) MIT's Media Lab, which helped drive the multimedia revolution and now houses more than 500 researchers and staff across a broad range of disciplines. An original investor in Wired (and the magazine's "patron saint"), for five years he penned a column exploring the frontiers of technology -- ideas that he expanded into his 1995 best-selling book Being Digital. An angel investor extraordinaire, he's funded more than 40 startups, and served on the boards of companies such as Motorola and Ambient Devices.
But his latest effort, the One Laptop per Child project, may prove his most ambitious. The organization is designing, manufacturing and distributing low-cost, wireless Internet-enabled computers costing roughly $100 and aimed at children. Negroponte hopes to put millions of these devices in the hands of children in the developing world.
Nicholas Negroponte | Speaker | TED.com