TED2014
Nicholas Negroponte: A 30-year history of the future
尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝: 未來的三十年歷史
Filmed:
Readability: 3.8
2,035,246 views
MIT 媒體實驗室創始人尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝帶領你回顧過去三十年來的最新科技。這位偉大的預言家重點介紹了他在上世紀七、八十年代預測的人機互動介面和創新理念，當時這些預測被人嘲笑，現在卻變得家喻戶曉。最後，他還拋出了一個對未來三十年科技（可笑？精彩？）的預測。
Nicholas Negroponte - Tech visionary
The founder of the MIT Media Lab, Nicholas Negroponte pushed the edge of the information revolution as an inventor, thinker and angel investor. He's the driving force behind One Laptop per Child, building computers for children in the developing world. Full bio
The founder of the MIT Media Lab, Nicholas Negroponte pushed the edge of the information revolution as an inventor, thinker and angel investor. He's the driving force behind One Laptop per Child, building computers for children in the developing world. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
(Video) Nicholas Negroponte:
Can we switch to the video disc,
Can we switch to the video disc,
0
657
2454
（影片）尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝：
勞駕幫我
勞駕幫我
00:15
which is in play mode?
1
3111
2123
播放下錄影帶。
00:17
I'm really interested in how you put people and computers together.
2
5234
5230
我對人機對話模式情有獨鍾。
00:22
We will be using the TV screens or their equivalents
3
10464
3370
將來，人們會使用電視螢幕
00:25
for electronic books of the future.
4
13834
4374
或類似設備來閱讀電子書。
00:30
(Music, crosstalk)
5
18208
3614
（音樂，串聲）
00:50
Very interested in touch-sensitive displays,
6
38117
2252
我對觸控式螢幕深感興趣。
00:52
high-tech, high-touch, not having
to pick up your fingers to use them.
to pick up your fingers to use them.
7
40369
4327
高科技，高觸感，指尖操控。
00:56
There is another way where computers
8
44696
1800
另一種人機互動的方式是
00:58
touch people: wearing, physically wearing.
9
46496
2463
把電腦像衣服那樣穿在身上。
01:08
Suddenly on September 11th,
10
56646
2021
突然，在9月11號這一天，
01:10
the world got bigger.
11
58667
2637
眼前的世界豁然開闊。
01:13
NN: Thank you. (Applause)
12
61304
2985
尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝: 謝謝（掌聲）
01:16
Thank you.
13
64289
2059
謝謝。
01:18
When I was asked to do this,
14
66348
2108
我受邀參加這次TED演講時，
01:20
I was also asked to look at all 14 TED Talks
15
68456
4196
他們讓我重新回顧了
01:24
that I had given,
16
72652
1710
我在不同年代
01:26
chronologically.
17
74362
1798
先後發表的14次TED演講。
01:28
The first one was actually two hours.
18
76160
2274
第一次實際講了2小時，
01:30
The second one was an hour,
19
78434
1456
第二次1小時，
01:31
and then they became half hours,
20
79890
1549
之後時間縮短到半小時。
01:33
and all I noticed was my bald spot getting bigger.
21
81439
3936
我發現每來一次TED，
我的頭髮就掉了不少。
我的頭髮就掉了不少。
01:37
(Laughter)
22
85375
1620
（笑聲）
01:38
Imagine seeing your life, 30 years of it, go by,
23
86995
4168
暮然回首，30年的人生，就這樣悄然流逝。
01:43
and it was, to say the least,
24
91163
3407
至少對我來講，
01:46
for me, quite a shocking experience.
25
94570
4373
這太不可思議了。
01:50
So what I'm going to do in my time
26
98943
1593
所以這次重回TED講臺，
01:52
is try and share with you what happened
27
100536
1544
我會盡我所能，與大家分享
01:54
during the 30 years,
28
102080
1802
這30年裡發生的事情。
01:55
and then also make a prediction,
29
103882
2518
接著，我還會再做一次預測，
01:58
and then tell you a little bit
30
106400
2061
然後告訴你們
02:00
about what I'm doing next.
31
108461
2654
我接下來的工作計畫。
02:03
And I put on a slide
32
111115
2951
這張幻燈片總結了
02:06
where TED 1 happened in my life.
33
114066
4060
我第一次TED演講的主要內容。
02:10
And it's rather important
34
118126
1914
那次演講相當重要，
02:12
because I had done 15 years of research before it,
35
120040
4060
因為在此之前，我做了15年的潛心研究。
02:16
so I had a backlog, so it was easy.
36
124100
2428
所以我有備而來，輕裝上陣。
02:18
It's not that I was Fidel Castro
37
126528
1760
我不是菲德爾·卡斯楚（古巴領導人），
02:20
and I could talk for two hours,
38
128288
1833
可以滔滔不絕地講2個小時，
02:22
or Bucky Fuller.
39
130121
1322
也沒有布基·富勒
（新未來主義建築師）的遠見卓識，
（新未來主義建築師）的遠見卓識，
02:23
I had 15 years of stuff,
40
131443
1915
但我有15年的知識積累，
02:25
and the Media Lab was about to start.
41
133358
2472
當時正在籌建媒體實驗室，
02:27
So that was easy.
42
135830
1800
所以那次演講毫不費力。
02:29
But there are a couple of things
43
137630
2664
不過，關於那個年代，
02:32
about that period
44
140294
1688
還有當時
02:33
and about what happened that are
45
141982
2053
發生的事情，
有幾點非常重要。
02:36
really quite important.
46
144035
1855
02:37
One is that
47
145890
2556
第一點是
02:40
it was a period when computers
48
148446
2896
那個年代的電腦
02:43
weren't yet for people.
49
151342
2637
不是為人而開發的。
02:45
And the other thing that sort of happened
50
153979
3145
另一點
在當時比較盛行，
02:49
during that time is that
51
157124
3071
02:52
we were considered sissy computer scientists.
52
160195
3382
我們被認為是無用的電腦科學家。
02:55
We weren't considered the real thing.
53
163577
1563
沒人拿我們當回事。
02:57
So what I'm going to show you is, in retrospect,
54
165140
3999
所以，回想過去的經歷，
03:01
a lot more interesting and a lot more accepted
55
169139
2508
我接下來展示的內容
03:03
than it was at the time.
56
171647
2066
比當時更有趣，更廣為接受。
03:05
So I'm going to characterize the years
57
173713
2554
我要概括一下這些年的經歷，
03:08
and I'm even going to go back
58
176267
1833
甚至回過頭來重新審視
03:10
to some very early work of mine,
59
178100
2104
一些非常早期的研究工作。
03:12
and this was the kind of stuff I was doing in the '60s:
60
180204
2886
這是我在上世紀
60年代研究的裝置，
60年代研究的裝置，
03:15
very direct manipulation,
61
183090
2187
直接點擊操作，
03:17
very influenced as I studied architecture
62
185277
2655
就像我在學習建築的時候一樣，
03:19
by the architect Moshe Safdie,
63
187932
2087
我從建築師薩夫迪的理念中吸取了靈感。
03:22
and you can see that we even built robotic things
64
190019
2762
你可以看到我們甚至建造了機器人裝置，
03:24
that could build habitat-like structures.
65
192781
2756
它們能夠搭建“棲息地式”結構。
03:27
And this for me was
66
195537
1687
對於我來講，
03:29
not yet the Media Lab,
67
197224
1916
這還不是媒體實驗室，
03:31
but was the beginning of what I'll call
68
199140
2817
而是我要稱之為
03:33
sensory computing,
69
201957
1519
“感覺計算”的雛形。
03:35
and I pick fingers
70
203476
1872
我之所以想到用手指來操控，
03:37
partly because everybody thought it was ridiculous.
71
205348
4202
部分是因為每個人
都覺得這個想法很荒謬。
都覺得這個想法很荒謬。
03:41
Papers were published
72
209550
2155
當時發表了很多文章，
03:43
about how stupid it was to use fingers.
73
211705
4252
指出手指操作有多愚蠢。
03:47
Three reasons: One was they were low-resolution.
74
215957
2818
他們列舉了三個原因，首先是解析度低。
03:50
The other is your hand would occlude
75
218775
1929
其次，手會遮擋視線，
03:52
what you wanted to see,
76
220704
1441
讓你看不到細節。
03:54
and the third, which was the winner,
77
222145
1758
最後，他們使出的“殺手鐧”是
03:55
was that your fingers would get the screen dirty,
78
223903
3656
手指會弄髒螢幕。
03:59
and hence, fingers would never be
79
227559
2326
所以，手指絕對不會
04:01
a device that you'd use.
80
229885
1788
成為操作設備。
04:03
And this was a device we built in the '70s,
81
231673
3049
這台裝置誕生於上世紀70年代，
04:06
which has never even been picked up.
82
234722
1871
當時甚至無人問津。
04:08
It's not just touch sensitive,
83
236593
1441
它不僅觸覺敏感，
04:10
it's pressure sensitive.
84
238034
2178
而且壓力敏感。
04:12
(Video) Voice: Put a yellow circle there.
85
240212
1977
（影片）聲音：在那兒畫一個黃色圓圈。
04:14
NN: Later work, and again this was before TED 1 —
86
242189
3444
尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝:
這是後期的工作，同樣發生在 TED 1 之前——
這是後期的工作，同樣發生在 TED 1 之前——
04:17
(Video) Voice: Move that west of the diamond.
87
245633
2803
（影片）聲音：把它移動到菱形的西面。
04:20
Create a large green circle there.
88
248436
3212
在那兒畫一個綠色的大圓圈。
04:23
Man: Aw, shit.
89
251648
2329
影片中的人：喔，該死！
04:25
NN: — was to sort of do interface concurrently,
90
253977
3430
尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝:
——這是在進行同步交互。
——這是在進行同步交互。
04:29
so when you talked and you pointed
91
257407
1808
一邊說話，一邊用手比劃。
04:31
and you had, if you will,
92
259215
3187
只要你願意，
04:34
multiple channels.
93
262402
1559
還可以有多種交互管道。
04:35
Entebbe happened.
94
263961
2007
後來發生了恩德培劫機事件。
04:37
1976, Air France was hijacked,
95
265968
3547
1976年，一架法航客機
04:41
taken to Entebbe,
96
269515
1498
被劫持到恩德培。
04:43
and the Israelis not only did an extraordinary rescue,
97
271013
5057
以色列人完成了出色的營救行動。
04:48
they did it partly because they had practiced
98
276070
1963
他们成功的部分原因是
利用了機場的物理模型，
利用了機場的物理模型，
04:50
on a physical model of the airport,
99
278033
2495
進行過解救人質演練。
04:52
because they had built the airport,
100
280528
1156
因為機場是他們修建的，
04:53
so they built a model in the desert,
101
281684
1733
所以他們在沙漠中製作了一個模型。
04:55
and when they arrived at Entebbe,
102
283417
1716
在到達恩德培之後，
04:57
they knew where to go because
they had actually been there.
they had actually been there.
103
285133
2920
他們知道怎麼走，
因為他們實際上去過那裡。
因為他們實際上去過那裡。
05:00
The U.S. government asked some of us, '76,
104
288053
3252
1976年，美國政府詢問我們當中的一些人
05:03
if we could replicate that computationally,
105
291305
2775
是否能通過計算機來再現營救過程？
05:06
and of course somebody like myself says yes.
106
294080
2189
當然，我的一位同事說沒問題。
05:08
Immediately, you get a contract,
107
296269
2026
然後，我們立刻得到
05:10
Department of Defense,
108
298295
1485
一份來自國防部的合同。
05:11
and we built this truck and this rig.
109
299780
2688
我們建造了這輛卡車，
還有那個攝像頭裝置，
還有那個攝像頭裝置，
05:14
We did sort of a simulation,
110
302468
2520
憑藉當時的影像記錄，
05:16
because you had video discs,
111
304988
1826
完成了一次模擬營救。
05:18
and again, this is '76.
112
306814
2328
這同樣發生在1976年。
05:21
And then many years later,
113
309142
2697
經過很多年之後，
05:23
you get this truck,
114
311839
1469
當時的卡車變成了這樣，
05:25
and so you have Google Maps.
115
313308
2958
於是我們有了谷歌地圖。
05:28
Still people thought,
116
316266
1520
當時還是有人執意認為
05:29
no, that was not serious computer science,
117
317786
4020
那不是嚴肅的電腦科學。
05:33
and it was a man named Jerry Wiesner,
118
321806
2059
但有一個人的觀點卻截然相反，
05:35
who happened to be the president of MIT,
119
323865
2407
他就是傑利·威斯納，
05:38
who did think it was computer science.
120
326272
2348
當時恰巧是麻省理工學院 (MIT) 的院長。
05:40
And one of the keys for anybody
121
328620
2637
所以，要想在人生中
05:43
who wants to start something in life:
122
331257
3384
展露鋒芒，有所作為，
05:46
Make sure your president is part of it.
123
334641
3269
一定要拉你的老闆“入夥”。
05:49
So when I was doing the Media Lab,
124
337910
3020
所以我在創建媒體實驗室的時候，
05:52
it was like having a gorilla in the front seat.
125
340930
3157
就像是有個“大佬”在前面罩著。
05:56
If you were stopped for speeding
126
344087
2185
如果你因為超速而被截停，
05:58
and the officer looked in the window
127
346272
2240
警官從車窗看進來，
06:00
and saw who was in the passenger seat,
128
348512
2009
發現副駕駛位置坐著位“大佬”，
06:02
then, "Oh, continue on, sir."
129
350521
1962
他就會說“哦，先生，請繼續上路吧。”
06:04
And so we were able,
130
352483
1685
所以我們當時能夠大展身手。
06:06
and this is a cute, actually, device, parenthetically.
131
354168
3793
這個裝置十分精巧。
06:09
This was a lenticular photograph of Jerry Wiesner
132
357961
3049
這是一張傑利·威斯納的透鏡印刷照片，
06:13
where the only thing that changed in the photograph
133
361010
2363
照片中唯一改變的
06:15
were the lips.
134
363373
1343
就是嘴唇。
06:16
So when you oscillated that little piece
135
364716
2976
當你搖晃那片
06:19
of lenticular sheet with his photograph,
136
367692
3230
帶有照片的透鏡板時，
06:22
it would be in lip sync
137
370922
2013
你會看到照片中的嘴唇
06:24
with zero bandwidth.
138
372935
2239
以零頻寬同步。
06:27
It was a zero-bandwidth teleconferencing system
139
375174
2711
這就是當時的
零頻寬遠端會議系統。
06:29
at the time.
140
377885
1842
06:31
So this was the Media Lab's —
141
379727
3981
這就是媒體實驗室的概念圖，
06:35
this is what we said we'd do,
142
383708
1693
我們當時計畫建設的
06:37
that the world of computers, publishing,
143
385401
2575
集電腦、出版等
功能於一身的實驗室。
06:39
and so on would come together.
144
387976
2688
06:42
Again, not generally accepted,
145
390664
2104
同樣，它沒有得到普遍接受，
06:44
but very much part of TED in the early days.
146
392768
4972
但卻是早期 TED 的一部分。
06:49
And this is really where we were headed.
147
397740
3206
這正是我們追求的目標，
06:52
And that created the Media Lab.
148
400946
1687
引領我們創建了媒體實驗室。
06:54
One of the things about age
149
402633
4251
對於變老的問題，
06:58
is that I can tell you with great confidence,
150
406884
4267
我可以很自信的告訴你們，
07:03
I've been to the future.
151
411151
2464
我確實去過未來，
07:05
I've been there, actually, many times.
152
413615
3284
並且去過那裡不止一次。
07:08
And the reason I say that is,
153
416899
1508
我這麼說的原因是，
07:10
how many times in my life have I said,
154
418407
2441
我這一輩子似乎總在說：
07:12
"Oh, in 10 years, this will happen,"
155
420848
1777
“在未來10年這些都會實現。”
07:14
and then 10 years comes.
156
422625
2048
然後，10年過去了。
07:16
And then you say, "Oh, in
five years, this will happen."
five years, this will happen."
157
424673
1758
接著又會說“在未來5年這些都會實現。”
07:18
And then five years comes.
158
426431
1684
然後，5年過去了。
07:20
So I say this a little bit with having felt
159
428115
3758
我在做出這些預測的時候，
07:23
that I'd been there a number of times,
160
431873
2337
多少感覺自己曾經去過未來不止一次。
07:26
and one of the things that is most quoted
161
434210
3640
在我說過的所有預言中，
07:29
that I've ever said
162
437850
1149
被引用最多的就是
07:30
is that computing is not about computers,
163
438999
2383
“計算不再只和電腦有關，它關係到我們的生活。”
07:33
and that didn't quite get enough traction,
164
441382
3556
起初這句話並沒有引起廣泛關注，
07:36
and then it started to.
165
444938
1519
之後慢慢受到重視。
07:38
It started to because people caught on
166
446457
3695
人們開始關注這句話
07:42
that the medium wasn't the message.
167
450152
3138
是因為他們意識到，媒體並不是資訊。
07:45
And the reason I show this car
168
453290
2645
這裡所展示的這輛車，
07:47
in actually a rather ugly slide
169
455935
2328
的確有點土，缺乏美感。
07:50
is just again to tell you the kind of story
170
458263
2504
展示它是因為我想通過它
跟大家再分享一個
跟大家再分享一個
07:52
that characterized a little bit of my life.
171
460767
2828
對我的人生多少有點啟發的故事。
07:55
This is a student of mine
172
463595
2014
我有一個博士研究生，
07:57
who had done a Ph.D. called "Backseat Driver."
173
465609
3551
他在全球定位系統GPS發明初期，
08:01
It was in the early days of GPS,
174
469160
2082
設計了一個名為“後座司機”的系統，
08:03
the car knew where it was,
175
471242
1566
能夠為駕駛員提供自動導向，
08:04
and it would give audio instructions
176
472808
1915
還會向駕駛員發出語音指令，
08:06
to the driver, when to turn right,
when to turn left and so on.
when to turn left and so on.
177
474723
3427
比如，何時右轉，何時左轉。
08:10
Turns out, there are a lot of things
178
478150
1611
結果我們發現，
08:11
in those instructions that back in that period
179
479761
3035
當時設計的指令
08:14
were pretty challenging,
180
482796
1250
有些很難執行。
08:16
like what does it mean, take the next right?
181
484046
3228
比如說 “下一路口右轉”究竟是什麼意思？
08:19
Well, if you're coming up on a street,
182
487274
1900
如果你駕車經過一條街道，
08:21
the next right's probably the one after,
183
489174
2183
下一個右轉可能是下下個路口。
08:23
and there are lots of issues,
184
491357
1231
這裡面包含很多技術難題。
08:24
and the student did a wonderful thesis,
185
492588
2245
這名學生的論文寫得很棒。
08:26
and the MIT patent office said "Don't patent it.
186
494833
4847
但 MIT 專利辦公室卻說“別為它申請專利。
08:31
It'll never be accepted.
187
499680
1940
這肯定行不通。
08:33
The liabilities are too large.
188
501620
2310
責任太大，風險太高。
08:35
There will be insurance issues.
189
503930
1391
還有保險問題。
08:37
Don't patent it."
190
505321
1644
別為它申請專利。”
08:38
So we didn't,
191
506965
1093
所以我們放棄了。
08:40
but it shows you how people, again, at times,
192
508058
3638
這件事再一次表明，
08:43
don't really look at what's happening.
193
511696
4199
人們有時對周邊
正在發生的事情視若無睹。
正在發生的事情視若無睹。
08:47
Some work, and I'll just go
through these very quickly,
through these very quickly,
194
515895
2895
下面，我準備快速回顧一下
過去的一些研究工作。
過去的一些研究工作。
08:50
a lot of sensory stuff.
195
518790
1605
這裡有很多感測器元件。
08:52
You might recognize a young Yo-Yo Ma
196
520395
2475
你也許認得出年輕時候的馬友友。
08:54
and tracking his body for playing
197
522870
3970
我們利用感測器元件跟蹤
08:58
the cello or the hypercello.
198
526840
2348
他演奏大提琴時的肢體動作。
09:01
These fellows literally walked
around like that at the time.
around like that at the time.
199
529188
3977
當年，這幫傢夥就穿著這副行頭到處晃悠。
09:05
It's now a little bit more discreet
200
533165
2635
現在稍微有所收斂，
09:07
and more commonplace.
201
535800
2041
並且更司空見慣了。
09:09
And then there are at least three heroes
202
537841
2269
在這裡，至少有三位傳奇人物
09:12
I want to quickly mention.
203
540110
1129
我想跟大家介紹一下。
09:13
Marvin Minsky, who taught me a lot
204
541239
2478
第一位是馬文·明斯基（“人工智慧之父”），
09:15
about common sense,
205
543717
1387
他教會了我很多常識性的東西。
09:17
and I will talk briefly about Muriel Cooper,
206
545104
3441
第二位是穆尼爾·庫伯（MIT出版社藝術總監），
09:20
who was very important to Ricky Wurman
207
548545
2618
他對於理查·沃爾曼（TED創始人）
09:23
and to TED, and in fact, when she got onstage,
208
551163
3735
以及 TED 的發展都至關重要。
09:26
she said, the first thing she said was,
209
554898
1947
當時她走上 TED 講臺，說的第一句話就是
09:28
"I introduced Ricky to Nicky."
210
556845
2154
“我把裡基介紹給了尼基。”
09:30
And nobody calls me Nicky
211
558999
1700
沒人叫我“尼基”，
09:32
and nobody calls Richard Ricky,
212
560699
1759
也沒人稱呼理查“裡基”，
09:34
so nobody knew who she was talking about.
213
562458
3402
所以大家都不知道她在說什麼。
09:37
And then, of course, Seymour Papert,
214
565860
2397
當然，還有西摩•·帕爾特（人工智慧先驅）。
09:40
who is the person who said,
215
568257
1505
他曾經說過這麼一句話：
09:41
"You can't think about thinking
216
569762
1415
“除非你意識到自己在思考，
09:43
unless you think about thinking about something."
217
571177
2415
否則你根本無法思考。”
09:45
And that's actually — you can unpack that later.
218
573592
5663
這句話大家可以稍後解讀，
09:51
It's a pretty profound statement.
219
579255
4106
確實非常深奧。
09:55
I'm showing some slides
220
583361
1740
現在大家看到的是
09:57
that were from TED 2,
221
585101
2086
TED 2 使用的一些幻燈片，
09:59
a little silly as slides, perhaps.
222
587187
3742
也許看上去有點不入潮流。
10:02
Then I felt television really was about displays.
223
590929
5341
那時候，我覺得電視機就是顯示器。
10:08
Again, now we're past TED 1,
224
596273
3063
我們經過了 TED 1，
10:11
but just around the time of TED 2,
225
599336
3026
差不多到了 TED 2 的時代。
10:14
and what I'd like to mention here is,
226
602362
2149
在這裡，我想說的是——
10:16
even though you could imagine
227
604511
2115
即使你能夠想像
10:18
intelligence in the device,
228
606626
2054
設備中使用的智慧技術——
10:20
I look today at some of the work
229
608680
1432
今天，我大致瞭解了一下
10:22
being done about the Internet of Things,
230
610112
2438
最近有關物聯網的研究。
10:24
and I think it's kind of tragically pathetic,
231
612550
2940
我覺得這些研究非常悲哀，
10:27
because what has happened is people take
232
615490
2430
因為現實情況是這樣的：
10:29
the oven panel and put it on your cell phone,
233
617920
3498
有人拿來烤箱控制面板，
10:33
or the door key onto your cell phone,
234
621418
1789
或門鑰匙，然後安裝到你的手機上。
10:35
just taking it and bringing it to you,
235
623207
2173
只是拿過來給你裝上。
10:37
and in fact that's actually what you don't want.
236
625380
2721
但你其實並不需要。
10:40
You want to put a chicken in the oven,
237
628101
2058
你需要的是讓你的烤箱變得智慧化。
10:42
and the oven says, "Aha, it's a chicken,"
238
630159
2328
比方說，你把一隻雞放進烤箱，
10:44
and it cooks the chicken.
239
632487
1149
它就會自動識別出這是一隻雞，
10:45
"Oh, it's cooking the chicken for Nicholas,
240
633636
1766
知道這是為尼可拉斯烹飪的，
10:47
and he likes it this way and that way."
241
635402
1834
知道尼古拉斯喜歡這樣和那樣的烹調方式。
10:49
So the intelligence, instead of being in the device,
242
637236
3053
所以，智慧技術原本並不在設備中。
10:52
we have started today
243
640289
1709
今天我們開始
10:53
to move it back onto the cell phone
244
641998
2112
讓它重新回到手機上，
10:56
or closer to the user,
245
644110
2370
或更接近用戶。
10:58
not a particularly enlightened view
246
646480
2188
這不是有關物聯網
11:00
of the Internet of Things.
247
648668
2741
特別具有啟發性的觀點。
11:03
Television, again, television what I said today,
248
651409
3464
關於電視機，今天我講的是
11:06
that was back in 1990,
249
654873
2622
上世紀90年代的電視機。
11:09
and the television of tomorrow
250
657495
1470
而未來的電視機
11:10
would look something like that.
251
658965
2323
看上去是這樣的。
11:13
Again, people, but they laughed cynically,
252
661288
3544
又有人發出冷笑，
11:16
they didn't laugh with much appreciation.
253
664832
5251
他們的笑聲沒有流露出讚賞之情。
11:22
Telecommunications in the 1990s,
254
670083
2650
上世紀90年代的電信業，
11:24
George Gilder decided that he would call this diagram
255
672733
5700
喬治·吉爾德決定把這張圖稱為
11:30
the Negroponte switch.
256
678433
2429
“尼葛洛龐帝式轉換”。
11:32
I'm probably much less famous than George,
257
680862
2006
喬治聲名顯赫，我恐怕望塵莫及，
11:34
so when he called it the Negroponte switch, it stuck,
258
682868
3607
所以當喬治作出這個決定時，我有點受寵若驚。
11:38
but the idea of things that came in the ground
259
686475
2665
不過，當時我的一個預測——
11:41
would go in the air and stuff in the air
260
689140
1715
“今天在空中傳輸的，明天將轉入地下，
11:42
would go into the ground
261
690855
1459
而在地下傳輸的將轉到空中”
11:44
has played itself out.
262
692314
1885
終於慢慢變為了現實。
11:46
That is the original slide from that year,
263
694199
4745
這是那一年的原始幻燈片，
11:50
and it has worked in lockstep obedience.
264
698944
3375
與現實情況如出一轍。
11:54
We started Wired magazine.
265
702319
2167
我們創辦了《連線》雜誌。
11:56
Some people, I remember we shared
266
704486
3736
我記得當時我們會定期
12:00
the reception desk periodically,
267
708222
2722
輪流當接待員。
12:02
and some parent called up irate that his son
268
710944
4058
一次，有位家長怒氣衝衝地打電話來
12:07
had given up Sports Illustrated
269
715002
2229
說他的兒子放棄了《體育畫報》，
12:09
to subscribe for Wired,
270
717231
1879
開始訂閱《連線》。
12:11
and he said, "Are you some
porno magazine or something?"
porno magazine or something?"
271
719110
3197
他質問我們：“你們這本雜誌是黃書嗎？”
12:14
and couldn't understand why his son
272
722307
2584
無論如何，他都無法理解
12:16
would be interested in Wired, at any rate.
273
724891
3899
自己的兒子會對《連線》感興趣。
12:20
I will go through this a little quicker.
274
728790
2604
我要稍微加快一點兒速度。
12:23
This is my favorite, 1995,
275
731394
3499
這是我的最愛——
12:26
back page of Newsweek magazine.
276
734893
3037
1995年《新聞週刊》的封底。
12:29
Okay. Read it. (Laughter)
277
737930
1969
好吧，讀一下。（笑聲）
12:31
["Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Internet. Uh, sure."
—Clifford Stoll, Newsweek, 1995]
—Clifford Stoll, Newsweek, 1995]
278
739899
1901
["MIT媒體實驗室主任尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝預測：人們很快就會直接通過網際網路購買書籍和報紙。呃，走著瞧吧。”—克利夫·斯托爾，《新聞週刊》，1995年]
12:33
You must admit that gives you,
279
741800
1645
有一點你必須承認，
12:35
at least it gives me pleasure
280
743445
2227
當有人說你大錯特錯時，
12:37
when somebody says how dead wrong you are.
281
745672
3758
你更應該全情投入，至少我會如此。
12:41
"Being Digital" came out.
282
749430
2146
《數位化生存》問世了。
12:43
For me, it gave me an opportunity
283
751576
2641
對我來講，這本書讓我有機會
12:46
to be more in the trade press
284
754217
2202
更多地涉足商業新聞媒體，
12:48
and get this out to the public,
285
756419
3271
並把它推廣到普通大眾。
12:51
and it also allowed us to build the new Media Lab,
286
759690
3015
同時，也讓我們建成了新的媒體實驗室。
12:54
which if you haven't been to, visit,
287
762705
1933
如果你還沒去過，歡迎來參觀。
12:56
because it's a beautiful piece of architecture
288
764638
3019
這裡不僅是工作的樂園，
12:59
aside from being a wonderful place to work.
289
767657
2825
建築設計也是美不勝收。
13:02
So these are the things we were saying in those TEDs.
290
770482
2695
這些是我們在 TED 演講中提到過的東西。
13:05
[Today, multimedia is a desktop or living room experience, because the apparatus is so clunky. This will change dramatically with small, bright, thin, high-resolution displays. — 1995]
291
773177
1567
[今天，由於多媒體設備仍很笨重，我們多半是在書房或起居室中操作多媒體。一旦我們有了小而薄、明亮、靈活、解析度高的顯示器以後，情況就會完全改觀。—1995年]
13:06
We came to them.
292
774744
1492
我們的夢想最終實現了。
13:08
I looked forward to it every year.
293
776236
1992
我每年都在期待這一天的到來。
13:10
It was the party that Ricky Wurman never had
294
778228
3052
這是一次理查·沃爾曼終生難忘的聚會，
13:13
in the sense that he invited many of his old friends,
295
781280
2909
他邀請了許多老朋友，
13:16
including myself.
296
784189
1659
其中也包括我。
13:17
And then something for me changed
297
785848
2392
後來我自己的工作重心
13:20
pretty profoundly.
298
788240
1469
發生了很大的轉變。
13:21
I became more involved with computers and learning
299
789709
3953
我開始投入到電腦與學習的研究中，
13:25
and influenced by Seymour,
300
793662
2462
並且深受西摩的影響。
13:28
but particularly looking at learning
301
796124
2615
在我看來，
13:30
as something that is best approximated
302
798739
3910
學習過程與電腦程式設計
13:34
by computer programming.
303
802649
1754
最為相近。
13:36
When you write a computer program,
304
804403
2014
在編寫電腦程式時，
13:38
you've got to not just list things out
305
806417
2795
你並不只是列出清單，
13:41
and sort of take an algorithm
306
809212
1728
然後採用一種演算法，
13:42
and translate it into a set of instructions,
307
810940
2876
把清單轉化為一組指令。
13:45
but when there's a bug, and all programs have bugs,
308
813816
2683
你還會碰到程式漏洞，
所有程式都有漏洞，
所有程式都有漏洞，
13:48
you've got to de-bug it.
309
816499
1709
你必須想辦法解決。
13:50
You've got to go in, change it,
310
818208
1990
你必須進入並更改程式，
13:52
and then re-execute,
311
820198
1622
然後重新執行。
13:53
and you iterate,
312
821820
1804
如此循環往復。
13:55
and that iteration is really
313
823624
2907
這一循環過程
與學習過程有異曲同工之處。
13:58
a very, very good approximation of learning.
314
826531
2903
14:01
So that led to my own work with Seymour
315
829434
3667
正是基於這一認識，我和西摩一起
14:05
in places like Cambodia
316
833101
2358
在柬埔寨等地展開了獨立研究，
14:07
and the starting of One Laptop per Child.
317
835459
2904
開始啟動“每個孩子一台筆記本”計畫。
14:10
Enough TED Talks on One Laptop per Child,
318
838363
2814
有關這項計畫的 TED 演講不勝枚舉，
14:13
so I'll go through it very fast,
319
841177
1761
所以我會簡單地一語帶過。
14:14
but it did give us the chance
320
842938
3925
這項計畫確實讓我們有機會
14:18
to do something at a relatively large scale
321
846863
3506
在更廣的範圍內，
14:22
in the area of learning, development and computing.
322
850369
3993
從事學習、發展與計算領域的研究。
14:26
Very few people know that One Laptop per Child
323
854362
2817
很少有人知道，“每個孩子一台筆記本”計畫
14:29
was a $1 billion project,
324
857179
2635
是一個10億美元的專案。
14:31
and it was, at least over the seven years I ran it,
325
859814
2647
至少在我運作該項目的七年裡，
已經耗資10億美元。
已經耗資10億美元。
14:34
but even more important, the World Bank
326
862461
2146
更重要的是，世界銀行分文未出，
14:36
contributed zero, USAID zero.
327
864607
3115
我們也分文未收
美國國際開發署的資金。
美國國際開發署的資金。
14:39
It was mostly the countries
using their own treasuries,
using their own treasuries,
328
867722
4155
資金主要是由實施計畫的國家
通過自己的國債籌集而得。
通過自己的國債籌集而得。
14:43
which is very interesting,
329
871877
1603
這是非常有趣的現象。
14:45
at least to me it was very interesting
330
873480
1356
至少從我下一步的工作計畫來看，
14:46
in terms of what I plan to do next.
331
874836
3144
我發現這一點很有趣。
14:49
So these are the various places it happened.
332
877980
3025
這就是我們實施計畫的地方。
14:53
I then tried an experiment,
333
881005
2902
我當時嘗試做了一個實驗。
14:55
and the experiment happened in Ethiopia.
334
883907
4281
實驗地點在衣索比亞。
15:00
And here's the experiment.
335
888188
2642
這就是那次實驗。
15:02
The experiment is,
336
890830
1631
該實驗的目的是研究
15:04
can learning happen where there are no schools.
337
892461
3780
在沒有學校的地方，
能否發生學習行為？
能否發生學習行為？
15:08
And we dropped off tablets
338
896241
2530
我們向孩子們派發了一些筆記型電腦，
15:10
with no instructions
339
898771
2243
但沒有附帶說明書，
15:13
and let the children figure it out.
340
901014
3273
讓他們自己摸索。
15:16
And in a short period of time,
341
904287
3647
在很短的時間裡，
15:19
they not only
342
907934
2098
孩子們不僅
15:22
turned them on and were using 50 apps per child
343
910032
3072
學會了開機，並在短短5天內
15:25
within five days,
344
913104
2102
每個孩子至少使用了50個應用程式，
15:27
they were singing "ABC" songs within two weeks,
345
915206
2934
兩周內學會唱字母歌，
15:30
but they hacked Android within six months.
346
918140
3893
而且六個月內成功入侵了安卓系統。
15:34
And so that seemed sufficiently interesting.
347
922033
3518
這個過程太奇妙了。
15:37
This is perhaps the best picture I have.
348
925551
2559
這可能是我擁有的最好的一張照片。
15:40
The kid on your right
349
928110
4151
右面那個孩子
15:44
has sort of nominated himself as teacher.
350
932261
2475
好像“自封”為老師。
15:46
Look at the kid on the left, and so on.
351
934736
2520
看看左面那個孩子，還有其他孩子。
15:49
There are no adults involved in this at all.
352
937256
3150
全程沒有任何成年人介入。
15:52
So I said, well can we do this
353
940406
1424
所以我說，我們能否
15:53
at a larger scale?
354
941830
1597
擴大計畫的範圍？
15:55
And what is it that's missing?
355
943427
2481
這裡面還缺少什麼？
15:57
The kids are giving a press conference at this point,
356
945908
2269
此時，孩子們在召開新聞發佈會，
16:00
and sort of writing in the dirt.
357
948177
2685
好像在泥裡寫著什麼。
16:02
And the answer is, what is missing?
358
950862
3445
問題是，還缺少什麼？
16:06
And I'm going to skip over my prediction, actually,
359
954307
2536
看來我要略過預測了，
16:08
because I'm running out of time,
360
956843
1528
因為時間快要到了。
16:10
and here's the question, is what's going to happen?
361
958371
3968
最後的問題是，接下來會發生什麼？
16:14
I think the challenge
362
962339
1487
我認為最大的挑戰是——
16:15
is to connect the last billion people,
363
963826
2628
讓世界上最後10億人接觸到網際網路。
16:18
and connecting the last billion
364
966454
2651
“連接最後十億人”
16:21
is very different than connecting the next billion,
365
969105
3397
與“連接下一個十億人”
是兩個完全不同的概念。
是兩個完全不同的概念。
16:24
and the reason it's different
366
972502
1394
不同的原因在於，
16:25
is that the next billion
367
973896
1864
下一個十億人
16:27
are sort of low-hanging fruit,
368
975760
1950
是容易實現的目標。
16:29
but the last billion are rural.
369
977710
3367
而最後十億人卻身處“荒蠻之地”。
16:33
Being rural and being poor
370
981077
3752
荒蠻與貧窮
16:36
are very different.
371
984829
1132
是兩種完全不同的狀態。
16:37
Poverty tends to be created by our society,
372
985961
3633
我們的社會容易造成貧窮，
16:41
and the people in that community are not poor
373
989594
5450
而且貧窮階層的人們
16:47
in the same way at all.
374
995044
1909
境遇也各不相同。
16:48
They may be primitive,
375
996953
1405
這最後10億人也許出身荒蠻，
16:50
but the way to approach it and to connect them,
376
998358
4044
但接近和連接他們的方式，
16:54
the history of One Laptop per Child,
377
1002402
2531
“每個孩子一台筆記本”計畫的成果，
16:56
and the experiment in Ethiopia,
378
1004933
3656
還有衣索比亞的實驗，
17:00
lead me to believe that we can in fact
379
1008589
3275
讓我相信我們實際上
17:03
do this in a very short period of time.
380
1011864
2801
能夠在很短的時間裡付諸行動。
17:06
And so my plan,
381
1014665
1841
所以我的計畫——
17:08
and unfortunately I haven't been able
382
1016506
2234
很遺憾，我現在沒辦法
17:10
to get my partners at this point
383
1018740
2868
找到合作夥伴，
17:13
to let me announce them,
384
1021608
1291
讓我宣佈這些計畫——
17:14
but is to do this with a stationary satellite.
385
1022899
4907
我的計畫是利用同步軌道衛星
連接最後10億人。
連接最後10億人。
17:19
There are many reasons
386
1027806
2459
在很多方面，
17:22
that stationary satellites aren't the best things,
387
1030265
4515
同步軌道衛星不是最好的手段。
17:26
but there are a lot of reasons why they are,
388
1034780
2937
但是，同步軌道衛星也有很多優勢。
17:29
and for two billion dollars,
389
1037717
3095
花費兩億美元
17:32
you can connect a lot more than 100 million people,
390
1040812
3684
就可以連接遠超1億人。
17:36
but the reason I picked two,
391
1044496
2661
我選擇“2億”這個數字的原因是——
17:39
and I will leave this as my last slide,
392
1047157
3383
這是最後一張幻燈片。
17:42
is two billion dollars
393
1050540
1784
雖然2億美元聽上去很多，
17:44
is what we were spending
394
1052324
2919
但其實這是我們在
17:47
in Afghanistan
395
1055243
2093
阿富汗
17:49
every week.
396
1057336
1912
一週的開銷。
17:51
So surely if we can connect
397
1059248
3307
所以如果我們能夠
17:54
Africa and the last billion people
398
1062555
2700
用這些資金連接非洲，
17:57
for numbers like that,
399
1065255
1554
還有最後10億人，
17:58
we should be doing it.
400
1066809
1313
我們應該義無反顧。
18:00
Thank you very much.
401
1068122
2297
謝謝大家。
18:02
(Applause)
402
1070419
3529
（掌聲）
18:05
Chris Anderson: Stay up there. Stay up there.
403
1073948
4330
克里斯·安德森：請留步，請留步。
18:10
NN: You're going to give me extra time?
404
1078278
2030
尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝:
你要再多給我一點時間嗎？
你要再多給我一點時間嗎？
18:12
CA: No. That was wickedly clever, wickedly clever.
405
1080308
2362
克里斯: 不是。你說話真風趣，很機智。
18:14
You gamed it beautifully.
406
1082670
1865
演講十分精彩。
18:16
Nicholas, what is your prediction?
407
1084535
2630
尼可拉斯，談談你的預測吧？
18:19
(Laughter)
408
1087165
2026
（笑聲）
18:21
NN: Thank you for asking.
409
1089191
2436
尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝:
感謝你的提問。
感謝你的提問。
18:23
I'll tell you what my prediction is,
410
1091627
2773
我來告訴你我的預測是什麼。
18:26
and my prediction, and this is a prediction,
411
1094400
2700
這只是預測，
18:29
because it'll be 30 years. I won't be here.
412
1097100
2662
因為三十年後才會發生，
那時我不可能再回到這裡。
那時我不可能再回到這裡。
18:31
But one of the things about learning how to read,
413
1099762
4728
這個預測是有關學習如何閱讀的。
18:36
we have been doing a lot of consuming
414
1104490
2849
一直以來，我們都是靠眼睛
18:39
of information going through our eyes,
415
1107339
2285
閱讀大量的資訊。
18:41
and so that may be a very inefficient channel.
416
1109624
3076
這種管道可能效率很低。
18:44
So my prediction is that we are
going to ingest information
going to ingest information
417
1112700
5085
所以我的預測是——
將來人們會靠嘴巴“攝取”資訊。
將來人們會靠嘴巴“攝取”資訊。
18:49
You're going to swallow a pill and know English.
418
1117785
3197
吃一粒藥丸就學會英語，
18:52
You're going to swallow a
pill and know Shakespeare.
pill and know Shakespeare.
419
1120982
2692
吃一粒藥丸就理解莎士比亞。
18:55
And the way to do it is through the bloodstream.
420
1123674
2609
學習過程通過血液循環完成。
18:58
So once it's in your bloodstream,
421
1126283
1857
只要資訊流入血液，
19:00
it basically goes through it and gets into the brain,
422
1128140
2218
它基本就會流向大腦，
19:02
and when it knows that it's in the brain
423
1130358
2182
等到流向大腦，
19:04
in the different pieces,
424
1132540
1322
進入不同的區域，
19:05
it deposits it in the right places.
425
1133862
2625
就會儲存在相應的位置。
19:08
So it's ingesting.
426
1136487
1332
所以是“攝取”資訊。
19:09
CA: Have you been hanging out
with Ray Kurzweil by any chance?
with Ray Kurzweil by any chance?
427
1137819
2520
克里斯: 你最近和雷·庫茲韋爾出去玩耍了嗎？
（雷·庫茲韋爾：谷歌工程總監）
（雷·庫茲韋爾：谷歌工程總監）
19:12
NN: No, but I've been hanging
around with Ed Boyden
around with Ed Boyden
428
1140339
3213
尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝:
沒有，但我和埃德·博伊登出去逛過。（埃德·博伊登：MIT大腦、認知科學和生物工程學副教授）
沒有，但我和埃德·博伊登出去逛過。（埃德·博伊登：MIT大腦、認知科學和生物工程學副教授）
19:15
and hanging around with one of the speakers
429
1143552
1845
還有今天在場的休·赫爾教授
（MIT生物機械工程研究所主任），
（MIT生物機械工程研究所主任），
19:17
who is here, Hugh Herr,
430
1145397
1813
他也是 TED 的演講嘉賓之一。
19:19
and there are a number of people.
431
1147210
1897
我還有其他很多玩伴。
19:21
This isn't quite as far-fetched,
432
1149107
1397
這個預測並非不著邊際，
19:22
so 30 years from now.
433
1150504
2945
30年後就會見分曉。
19:25
CA: We will check it out.
434
1153449
1742
克理斯: 我們將拭目以待。
19:27
We're going to be back and we're going
to play this clip 30 years from now,
to play this clip 30 years from now,
435
1155191
2302
30年後，我們會重新回到這裡，觀看這段錄影，
19:29
and then all eat the red pill.
436
1157493
3031
然後大家一起吞下紅色藥丸。
19:32
Well thank you for that.
437
1160524
2185
非常感謝你的分享。
19:34
Nicholas Negroponte.
438
1162709
1444
尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝。
19:36
NN: Thank you.
439
1164153
1348
尼可拉斯: 謝謝大家。
19:37
(Applause)
440
1165501
814
（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nicholas Negroponte - Tech visionaryThe founder of the MIT Media Lab, Nicholas Negroponte pushed the edge of the information revolution as an inventor, thinker and angel investor. He's the driving force behind One Laptop per Child, building computers for children in the developing world.
Why you should listen
A pioneer in the field of computer-aided design, Negroponte founded (and was the first director of) MIT's Media Lab, which helped drive the multimedia revolution and now houses more than 500 researchers and staff across a broad range of disciplines. An original investor in Wired (and the magazine's "patron saint"), for five years he penned a column exploring the frontiers of technology -- ideas that he expanded into his 1995 best-selling book Being Digital. An angel investor extraordinaire, he's funded more than 40 startups, and served on the boards of companies such as Motorola and Ambient Devices.
But his latest effort, the One Laptop per Child project, may prove his most ambitious. The organization is designing, manufacturing and distributing low-cost, wireless Internet-enabled computers costing roughly $100 and aimed at children. Negroponte hopes to put millions of these devices in the hands of children in the developing world.
Nicholas Negroponte | Speaker | TED.com