TED2009
Alex Tabarrok: How ideas trump crises
Alex Tabarrok at ang paggamit ng ideya sa pagsugpo sa sakuna
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Napakahalaga ng "dismal science" sa talastasang ito, at tinataguyod ni Alex Tabarrok, isang ekonomista, ang malayang kalakalan at globalisasyon sa datiy' hati-hating mundo patungo sa iisang komunidad na malayang nagpapalitan ng mga ideya, na higit na malusog, masaya at masagana kaysa sa inaasahan natin.
Alex Tabarrok - Economist
With the hit economic blog MarginalRevolution.com, co-author Alex Tabarrok generates more hits than a summer hailstorm, and sheds light into the darkest corners of the dismal science. Full bio
With the hit economic blog MarginalRevolution.com, co-author Alex Tabarrok generates more hits than a summer hailstorm, and sheds light into the darkest corners of the dismal science. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
The first half of the 20th century
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Sa unang bahagi ng ika-20 siglo
00:16
was an absolute disaster in human affairs,
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sangkaterbang sakuna ang inabot ng sangkatauhan,
00:19
a cataclysm.
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isang malaking gulo.
00:21
We had the First World War,
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Nangyari ang Unang Digmaang Pandaigdig,
00:24
the Great Depression,
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ang Great Depression,
00:26
the Second World War
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ang Ikalawang Digmaang Pangdaigdig,
00:28
and the rise of the communist nations.
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at ang pag-usbong ng mga komunistang bansa.
00:31
And each one of these forces
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At bawat isa sa mga ito,
00:33
split the world, tore the world apart,
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pinagwatak-watak at
00:35
divided the world.
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hinati ang mundo.
00:38
And they threw up walls --
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At bumuo sila ng mga pader,
00:40
political walls, trade walls,
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mga bakod sa pulitika at kalakalan,
00:42
transportation walls,
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bakod sa transportasyon,
00:44
communication walls, iron curtains --
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bakod sa komunikasyon, ang kurtinang bakal,
00:47
which divided peoples and nations.
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na hinati ang mga tao at mga bansa.
00:51
It was only in the second half of the 20th century
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Sa ikalawang bahagi lamang ng ika-20 siglo
00:55
that we slowly began to pull ourselves
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na tayo'y nagsimulang bumangon
00:58
out of this abyss.
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mula sa pagkakalugmok.
01:01
Trade walls began to come tumbling down.
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Napabagsak natin ang harang sa kalakalan.
01:04
Here are some data on tariffs:
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Ito ay iilan sa mga datos ukol sa taripa:
01:06
starting at 40 percent, coming down to less than 5 percent.
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mula sa 40 porsyento, naging mas kaunti pa sa 5 porsyento.
01:09
We globalized the world. And what does that mean?
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Nai-globalize ang mundo. Anong ibig sabihin nun?
01:12
It means that we extended cooperation
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Ibig sabihin, umusbong ang kooperasyon
01:15
across national boundaries;
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ng mga bansa.
01:17
we made the world more cooperative.
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Naging mas matulungin ang mundo.
01:20
Transportation walls came tumbling down.
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Nabuwag ang mga harang sa transportasyon.
01:24
You know in 1950 the typical ship carried
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Noong 1950s lulan ng isang pangkaraniwang bapor ang
01:27
5,000 to 10,000 tons worth of goods.
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5,000 - 10,000 tonelada ng kagamitan.
01:31
Today a container ship can carry 150,000 tons;
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Ngayon ang isang container ship ay nagkakarga ng 150,000 tonelada.
01:35
it can be manned with a smaller crew;
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Mas kaunti ang kinakailangang tauhan,
01:37
and unloaded faster than ever before.
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at mas mabilis nang magbaba ng kargamento.
01:40
Communication walls, I don't have to tell you -- the Internet --
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Ang mga harang sa komunikasyon, salamat sa internet,
01:43
have come tumbling down.
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ay nabuwag na.
01:45
And of course the iron curtains,
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At ang kurtinang bakal,
01:47
political walls have come tumbling down.
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ang mga bakod sa pulitika ay nabuwag na din.
01:51
Now all of this has been tremendous for the world.
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Lahat ng ito ay naging mabuti para sa mundo.
01:55
Trade has increased.
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Umunlad ang kalakalan.
01:57
Here is just a little bit of data.
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Ito ang kaunting datos.
01:59
In 1990, exports from China to the United States:
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Noong 1990, ang export mula Tsina papuntang Estados Unidos --
02:01
15 billion dollars.
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15 bilyong dolyar.
02:03
By 2007: over 300 billion dollars.
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Noong 2007, higit sa 300 bilyong dolyar.
02:07
And perhaps most remarkably,
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At ang nakakamangha,
02:10
at the beginning of the 21st century,
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noong simula ng ika-20 siglo,
02:12
really for the first time in modern history,
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sa unang pagkakataon sa kasaysayan,
02:16
growth extended to almost all parts of the world.
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umabot sa bawat sulok ng mundo ang pag-unlad.
02:20
So China, I've already mentioned,
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Nabanggit ko na ang Tsina,
02:22
beginning around 1978, around the time of the death of Mao,
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simula noong 1978, noong namatay ni Mao,
02:25
growth -- ten percent a year.
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ang pag-unlad -- 10 porsyento kada taon.
02:27
Year after year after year,
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Bawat taon,
02:29
absolutely incredible.
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kamangha-mangha.
02:31
Never before in human history
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Hindi pa natin naranasan
02:35
have so many people been raised out of
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ang ganito karaming tao na umangat
02:37
such great poverty as happened in China.
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mula sa kahirapan, gaya ng nangyayari sa Tsina ngayon.
02:40
China is the world's greatest anti-poverty program
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Ang Tsina ang may pinakamahusay na programa kontra kahirapan
02:43
over the last three decades.
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sa nakalipas na 3 dekada.
02:45
India, starting a little bit later,
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Nahuli ng kaunti ang India,
02:47
but in 1990, begetting tremendous growth.
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ngunit noong 1990, nagkaroon ng malaking pag-unlad.
02:50
Incomes at that time
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Noon, ang kita nila
02:52
less than $1,000 per year.
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ay mas mababa sa 1,000 dolyar kada taon.
02:54
And over the next 18 years
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Lumipas ang 18 taon
02:56
have almost tripled.
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at naging triple ito.
02:58
Growth of six percent a year. Absolutely incredible.
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May pag-unlad ng 6 porsyento bawat taon. Kamangha-mangha.
03:01
Now Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa --
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Sa Aprika naman,
03:04
Sub-Saharan Africa
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ang bahagi ng Sub-Sahara
03:06
has been the area of the world
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ang katangi-tangi sa mundo
03:08
most resistant to growth.
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na pinakamailap sa pag-asenso.
03:11
And we can see the tragedy of Africa
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At makikita natin ang trahedya ng Aprika
03:14
in the first few bars here.
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sa mga datos dito.
03:16
Growth was negative.
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Naging negatibo ang pag-unlad.
03:18
People were actually getting poorer than their parents,
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Mas naghirap pa ang mga anak kaysa sa mga magulang nila.
03:21
and sometimes even poorer than their grandparents had been.
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At sa ibang lugar, mas mahirap pa kaysa sa mga lolo at lola nila.
03:24
But at the end of the 20th century,
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Ngunit, sa bandang dulo ng ika-20 siglo,
03:26
the beginning of the 21st century,
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sa simula ng ika-21 siglo,
03:28
we saw growth in Africa.
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natunghayan natin ang pag-unlad ng Aprika.
03:31
And I think, as you'll see, there's reasons for optimism,
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At sa tingin ko, may dahilan upang umasa.
03:33
because I believe that the best is yet to come.
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Dahil hindi pa dito nagtatapos ang kanilang pag-unlad.
03:36
Now why.
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Bakit?
03:38
On the cutting edge today
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Dahil sa mga panahong ito
03:40
it's new ideas which are driving growth.
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mga bagong ideya ang nagtutulak ng pag-unlad.
03:42
And by that I mean it's
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Partikular na
03:44
products for which the research and development costs
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sa mga produkto ng pananaliksik na pinagkakagastusan
03:47
are really high, and the manufacturing costs are low.
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at nagiging mura kapag umabot na sa mga pabrika.
03:50
More than ever before it is these types of ideas
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Ang mga ganitong klase ng ideya
03:52
which are driving growth on the cutting edge.
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ang nagtutulak sa pag-unlad.
03:55
Now ideas have this amazing property.
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May ganitong kakahayan ang mga ideya.
03:57
Thomas Jefferson, I think, really expressed this quite well.
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Sinabi ni Thomas Jefferson ito nang napakaganda.
04:00
He said, "He who receives an idea from me
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Wika niya, "Ang sinumang nakakatanggap ng ideya mula sa akin
04:04
receives instruction himself, without lessening mine.
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ay natututo, nang hindi nababawasan ang sa akin.
04:08
As he who lights his candle at mine
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Gaya nang sinumang nagsisindi ng kandila sa akin
04:11
receives light without darkening me."
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ay nakatatanggap ng liwanag nang hindi namamatay ang sa akin.
04:14
Or to put it slightly differently:
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O sa ibang pananalita,
04:16
one apple feeds one man,
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isang mansanas para sa iisang tao,
04:18
but an idea can feed the world.
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ngunit ang isang ideya ay para sa buong mundo.
04:21
Now this is not new. This is practically not new to TEDsters.
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Hindi na ito bago. Lalong hindi ito bago para sa mga TEDsters.
04:24
This is practically the model of TED.
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Ito naman talaga ang ginagawa sa TED.
04:26
But what is new is that the greater function of ideas
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Ang bago ay mas malaki na ngayon ang kontribusyon ng ideya
04:30
is going to drive growth even more than ever before.
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sa pagtulak ng pag-unlad kaysa sa dati.
04:35
This provides a reason why
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Ito ang dahilan kung bakit
04:37
trade and globalization
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ang kalakalan at globalisasyon
04:39
are even more important, more powerful than ever before,
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ay mas mahalaga at mas makapangyarihan kaysa sa dati,
04:42
and are going to increase growth more than ever before.
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at pinapabilis nito ang pag-unlad.
04:45
And to explain why this is so, I have a question.
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Upang maipaliwanag ko ito, may halimbawa ako.
04:48
Suppose that there are two diseases:
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Kunwari may dalawang sakit.
04:51
one of them is rare, the other one is common,
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Isa sa kanila, bihira, at ang isa, pangkaraniwan.
04:53
but if they are not treated they are equally severe.
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Pero, kung parehong hindi naagapan, nakamamatay.
04:56
If you had to choose, which would you rather have:
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Kung mamimili ka, alin ang gusto mong magkaroon?
04:59
the common disease or the rare disease?
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Ang pangkaraniwan o ang kakaibang sakit?
05:03
Common, the common -- I think that's absolutely right,
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Iyong pangkaraniwan. Tingin ko tama yun.
05:05
and why? Because there are more drugs to treat common diseases
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Bakit? Dahil mas maraming gamot para sa pangkaraniwang sakit
05:09
than there are to treat rare diseases.
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kaysa sa kakaibang sakit.
05:12
The reason for this is incentives.
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Dahil ito sa insentibo.
05:14
It costs about the same to produce a new drug
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Pareho lang ang gastos sa paggawa ng bagong gamot,
05:17
whether that drug treats 1,000 people,
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kung ang gamot ay para sa 1,000 tao,
05:20
100,000 people, or a million people.
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o 100,000 tao, o isang milyong tao man.
05:23
But the revenues are much greater if the drug treats a million people.
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Ngunit mas malaki ang kikitain kung isang milyon ang bibili ng gamot.
05:26
So the incentives are much larger
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Kaya, mas malaki ang insentibo
05:29
to produce drugs which treat more people.
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sa paggawa ng gamot para sa nakararami.
05:33
To put this differently: larger markets save lives.
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Ibig sabihin, nakakasagip-buhay kapag maraming kustomer.
05:37
In this case misery truly does love company.
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Sa kasong ito maraming karamay ang kahirapan.
05:41
Now think about the following:
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Ngayon, isipin ang sumusunod:
05:43
if China and India were as rich as the United States is today,
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kung ang Tsina at India ay kasing yaman ng Estados Unidos ngayon,
05:47
the market for cancer drugs would be eight times larger than it is now.
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ang kalakal para sa gamot laban kanser ay lalaki ng walong beses.
05:53
Now we are not there yet, but it is happening.
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Wala pa tayo doon, pero papunta na tayo.
05:55
As other countries become richer
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Habang yumayaman ang ibang bansa
05:58
the demand for these pharmaceuticals
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ang pangangailangan ng gamot
06:00
is going to increase tremendously.
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ay tataas rin ng malaki.
06:02
And that means an increase incentive to do research and development,
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Ang ibig sabihin nito ay mas mataas ang insentibo sa pananaliksik,
06:05
which benefits everyone in the world.
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at makikinabang tayong lahat.
06:08
Larger markets increase the incentive
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Mas maraming kustomer, mas malaki ang insentibo
06:10
to produce all kinds of ideas,
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na maglabas ng iba't ibang ideya.
06:12
whether it's software, whether it's a computer chip,
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Ito ma'y software, o computer chip,
06:14
whether it's a new design.
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o bagong disenyo.
06:16
For the Hollywood people in the audience,
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Para sa mga taga-Hollywood sa audience,
06:18
this even explains why action movies
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ito ang dahilan kung bakit ang mga maaksyong pelikula
06:20
have larger budgets than comedies:
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ay mas malaking badyet kaysa sa komedya.
06:22
it's because action movies translate easier
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Mas madaling naiintindihan ang aksyon
06:25
into other languages and other cultures,
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kahit sa ibang kultura at ibang lengwahe.
06:27
so the market for those movies is larger.
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Mas malaki ang negosyo para sa mga ganitong pelikula.
06:29
People are willing to invest more,
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Handang mamuhunan nang malaki ang mga tao,
06:31
and the budgets are larger.
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at mas malaki ang badyet.
06:33
Alright. Well if larger markets increase the incentive
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Kung malaki ang insentibong nalilikha kapag maraming kustomer
06:36
to produce new ideas,
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upang bumuo ng bagong ideya,
06:38
how do we maximize that incentive?
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paano natin lulubusin ang insentibong ito?
06:41
It's by having one world market, by globalizing the world.
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Ang sagot ay sa paglikha ng pandaigdigang merkado, sa pag-globalize ng mundo.
06:46
The way I like to put this is:
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Ganito lang iyan,
06:48
one idea. Ideas are meant to be shared,
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isang ideya, mga ideya na dapat ibahagi,
06:51
so one idea can serve one world, one market.
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isang ideya para sa iisang mundo, iisang merkado.
06:56
One idea, one world, one market.
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Isang ideya, isang mundo, isang merkado.
06:59
Well how else can we create new ideas?
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Paano pa nga ba tayo lilikha ng bagong ideya?
07:02
That's one reason.
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Iyon ay isang dahilan.
07:04
Globalize trade.
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Globalize, makipagkalakalan.
07:06
How else can we create new ideas?
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Paano pa tayo lilikha ng bagong ideya?
07:08
Well, more idea creators.
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Well, dagdagan ang mga imbentor ng ideya.
07:10
Now idea creators, they come from all walks of life.
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Mula sa iba't ibang sulok ang mga taong ito.
07:13
Artists and innovators -- many of the people you've seen on this stage.
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Mga artista, innovators, marami sa mga taong nagsalita na sa entabladong ito.
07:16
I'm going to focus on scientists and engineers
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Tignan natin ang mga siyentipiko at inhinyero
07:19
because I have some data on that, and I'm a data person.
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dahil may datos ako dito, at ako'y mahilig sa datos.
07:22
Now, today, less than one-tenth of one percent
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Mas kaunti pa sa 1/10th ng isang porsyento
07:27
of the world's population are scientists and engineers.
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ng buong sangkatauhan ang mga siyentipiko at inhinyero.
07:30
(Laughter)
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(Tawanan)
07:32
The United States has been an idea leader.
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Ang Estados Unidos ay nangunguna sa pag-iisip ng ideya.
07:35
A large fraction of those people are in the United States.
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Malaking bahagi ng mga taong iyon ay nasa Estados Unidos.
07:38
But the U.S. is losing its idea leadership.
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Ngunit papawala na ang pangunguna ng U.S.
07:43
And for that I am very grateful.
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At dahil doon, ako'y nagpapasalamat.
07:45
That is a good thing.
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Mabuti iyon.
07:48
It is fortunate that we are becoming less of an idea leader
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Masuwerte tayo na hindi na tayo nangunguna
07:51
because for too long the United States,
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sapagkat matagal na panahong ang Estados Unidos
07:53
and a handful of other developed countries,
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at iilang bansa lamang
07:55
have shouldered the entire burden
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ang bumubuo ng buong bigat
07:57
of research and development.
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ng pananaliksik.
07:59
But consider the following:
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Ngunit isipin ang sumusunod:
08:02
if the world as a whole were as wealthy as the United States is now
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kung ang buong mundo ay kasingyaman ng Estado Unidos ngayon
08:05
there would be more than five times as many scientists and engineers
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higit pa sa limang beses ang dami ng siyentipiko at inhinyero
08:09
contributing to ideas which benefit everyone,
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na dadagdag ng ideyang pakikinabangan ng lahat,
08:13
which are shared by everyone.
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at paghahatian ng lahat.
08:15
I think of the great Indian mathematician, Ramanujan.
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Naisip ko si Ramanujan, isang mahusay ng matematikong Indian.
08:19
How many Ramanujans are there in India today
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Ilang Ramanujans ang nasa India ngayon
08:23
toiling in the fields, barely able to feed themselves,
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na nag-aararo sa kabukiran at naghihikahos,
08:26
when they could be feeding the world?
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gayong maari nilang pakainin ang buong mundo?
08:29
Now we're not there yet.
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Wala pa tayo doon ngayon.
08:31
But it is going to happen in this century.
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Pero mangyayari iyon sa siglong ito.
08:34
The real tragedy of the last century is this:
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Ang trahedy ng nakaraang siglo ay:
08:40
if you think about the world's population
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kung ang populasyon ng mundo
08:44
as a giant computer, a massively parallel processor,
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ay isang higanteng kompyuter, isang malaking prosesor,
08:47
then the great tragedy has been
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ang trahedya ay yaong
08:49
that billions of our processors have been off line.
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bilyon bilyong prosesor na hindi gumagana.
08:54
But in this century China is coming on line.
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Ngunit sa siglong ito, nagsisimula nang gumana ang Tsina.
08:57
India is coming on line.
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Gumagana na din ang India.
08:59
Africa is coming on line.
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Tumatakbo na din ang Afrika.
09:01
We will see an Einstein in Africa in this century.
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Makakakita tayo ng Einstein ng Afrika sa siglong ito.
09:06
Here is just some data. This is China.
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Ito ay kaunting datos lamang. Ito ang Tsina.
09:08
1996: less than one million
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Noong 1996, hindi aabot sa isang milyon ang
09:10
new university students in China per year;
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mag-aaral sa mga unibersidad sa Tsina, bawat taon.
09:13
2006: over five million.
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Noong 2006, higit pa sa limang milyon.
09:17
Now think what this means.
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Ano ang ibig sabihin nun?
09:19
This means we all benefit when another country gets rich.
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Lahat tayo ay makikinabang kapag yumaman ang ibang bansa.
09:23
We should not fear other countries becoming wealthy.
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Hindi dapat tayo matakot na yumaman ang ibang bansa.
09:27
That is something that we should embrace --
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Iyon ay isang bagay na dapat natin yakapin --
09:30
a wealthy China, a wealthy India, a wealthy Africa.
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mayamang Tsina, mayamang India, mayamang Aprika.
09:33
We need a greater demand for ideas --
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Pausbungin natin ang pangangailangan ng ideya,
09:35
those larger markets I was talking about earlier --
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malalaking merkado na kinukwento ko kanina,
09:38
and a greater supply of ideas for the world.
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malaking supply ng mga ideya para sa mundo.
09:42
Now you can see some of the reasons why I'm optimistic.
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Ito ang mga dahilan kung bakit ako'y may magandang pangitain.
09:46
Globalization is increasing the demand
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Inaangat ng globalisasyon ang pangangailangan
09:48
for ideas, the incentive to create new ideas.
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ng mga ideya, ang paggayak na lumikha ng mga bagong ideya.
09:51
Investments in education are increasing the supply of new ideas.
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Pinapalawak ng edukasyon ang imbakan ng bagong ideya.
09:57
In fact if you look at world history
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Ayon sa ating kasaysayan,
09:59
you can see some reasons for optimism.
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may magagandang pangitain.
10:01
From about the beginnings of humanity
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Mula sa pagsisimula ng sangkatauhan
10:03
to 1500: zero economic growth, nothing.
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hanggang 1500, walang naging pag-unlad sa ekonomiya.
10:06
1500 to 1800: maybe a little bit of economic growth,
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1500 hanggang 1800, may kaunting paglago.
10:10
but less in a century
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Ngunit hindi kasing laki
10:12
than you expect to see in a year today.
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ng gaya sa siglong ito.
10:16
1900s: maybe one percent.
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1900s isang porsyento.
10:18
Twentieth century: a little bit over two percent.
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Ika-20 siglo, lagpas ng dalawang porsyento.
10:20
Twenty-first century could easily be 3.3, even higher percent.
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Ika-21 siglo ay aabot ng 3.3 porsyento o higit pa.
10:24
Even at that rate,
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Sa takbo ng mga nangyayari,
10:26
by 2100 average GDP per capita
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sa taong 2100, ang GDP per capita
10:29
in the world will be $200,000.
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ng mundo ay 200,000 dolyar.
10:32
That's not U.S. GDP per capita, which will be over a million,
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Lagpas sa isang milyon ang GDP per capita ng Estados Unidos.
10:35
but world GDP per capita -- $200,000.
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Ngunit GDP per capita ng mundo, 200,000 dolyar.
10:38
That's not that far.
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Hindi malayo ang panahong iyan.
10:40
We won't make it.
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Ngunit hindi na natin maabutan.
10:42
But some of our grandchildren probably will.
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Ngunit, aabutan iyan ng ating mga apo.
10:44
And I should say,
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At masasabi kong
10:46
I think this is a rather modest prediction.
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walang halong yabang ang aking hula.
10:49
In Kurzweilian terms this is gloomy.
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Sa paniniwalang Kurzweil, malungkot ito.
10:54
In Kurzweilian terms I'm like the Eeyore of economic growth.
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Sa paniniwalang Kurzweil, ako'y parang si Eeyore ng ekonomiya.
10:58
(Laughter)
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(Tawanan)
11:01
Alright what about problems?
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Ok, paano naman ang mga problema?
11:03
What about a great depression?
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Paano ang great depression?
11:06
Well let's take a look. Let's take a look at the Great Depression.
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Tignan natin ang Great Depression.
11:10
Here is GDP per capita
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Ito ang GDP per capita
11:12
from 1900 to 1929.
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noong 1900 hanggang 1929.
11:15
Now let's imagine that you were an economist in 1929,
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Ipagpalagay nating ika'y isang ekonomista noong 1929,
11:19
trying to forecast future growth for the United States,
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na tinatanaw ang pag-unlad ng Estados Unidos sa hinaharap,
11:22
not knowing that the economy was about to go off a cliff,
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at wala kang alam na pabagsak na pala ang ekonomiya.
11:26
not knowing that we were about to enter
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Hindi pa natin batid na tayo'y papasok
11:29
the greatest economic disaster certainly in the 20th century.
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sa pinakamalaking trahedyang pang-ekonomiya sa ika-20 siglo.
11:33
What would you have predicted, not knowing this?
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Ano kaya ang iyong hula kung hindi mo alam ito?
11:35
If you had based your prediction, your forecast
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Kung binase mo ang iyong hula
11:37
on 1900 to 1929
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noong 1900 hanggang 1929
11:39
you'd have predicted something like this.
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ito ang magiging hula mo.
11:41
If you'd been a little more optimistic --
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Kung higit na positibo ang iyong pananaw,
11:43
say, based upon the Roaring Twenties -- you'd have said this.
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dahil sa masaganang 20s, ito ang sasabihin mo.
11:46
So what actually happened?
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Ano nga ba ang nangyari?
11:48
We went off a cliff but we recovered.
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Bumagsak tayo ngunit tayo'y nakabawi.
11:52
In fact in the second half of the 20th century
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Sa katunayan, sa ikalawang yugto ng ika-20 siglo
11:55
growth was even higher than anything you would have predicted
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higit na mabilis ang ating pag-unlad kaysa sa anumang hula
11:59
based upon the first half of the 20th century.
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na ginawa noong unang yugto ng ika-20 siglo.
12:02
So growth can wash away
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Kayang burahin ng pag-unlad ang
12:04
even what appears to be a great depression.
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anumang epekto ng great depression.
12:07
Alright. What else?
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Okay. Ano pa?
12:09
Oil. Oil. This was a big topic.
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Langis. Ito ay naging malaking paksa.
12:12
When I was writing up my notes oil was $140 per barrel.
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Noong sinusulat ko pa ito, ang langis ay nasa 140 dolyar bawat bariles.
12:19
So people were asking a question. They were saying,
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Ang tanong ng taong-bayan,
12:22
"Is China drinking our milkshake?"
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"Iniinom ba ng Tsina ang ating milkshake?"
12:26
(Laughter)
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(Tawanan)
12:27
And there is some truth to this,
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At may kaunting katotohanan ito
12:30
in the sense that we have something of a finite resource,
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dahil ang langis ay nauubos na yaman.
12:34
and increased growth is going to push up demand for that.
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Itinataas ng pag-unlad ang ating pangangailangan dito.
12:37
But I think I don't have to tell this audience
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Hindi naman masama na
12:39
that a higher price of oil is not necessarily a bad thing.
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naging mamahalin ang langis ngayon.
12:44
Moreover, as everyone knows,
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Alam ng lahat na
12:47
look -- it's energy, not oil, which counts.
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enerhiya, at hindi langis, ang ating kailangan.
12:50
And higher oil prices mean
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Ang mataas na presyo ng langis ay mangangahulugang
12:52
a greater incentive to invest in energy R&D.
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mas malaki ang insentibo para sa pananaliksik sa enerhiya.
12:55
You can see this in the data.
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Makikita mo ito sa datos.
12:57
As oil prices go up, energy patents go up.
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Habang tumataas ang presyo ng langis, dumadami din ang patents patungkol sa enerhiya.
13:00
The world is much better equipped
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Mas handa ang mundo
13:02
to overcome an increase in the price of oil
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na lagpasan ang pagtaas ng presyo ng langis
13:04
today, than ever in the past,
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ngayon, kaysa sa panahong nakalipas,
13:06
because of what I'm talking about.
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dahil sa mga bagay na ating napag-usapan.
13:08
One idea, one world, one market.
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Isang ideya, isang mundo, isang merkado.
13:12
So I'm optimistic
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Kaya't ako'y positibo
13:15
so long as we hew to these two ideas:
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basta't sinusunod natin ang dalawang pilosopiyang ito:
13:17
to keep globalizing world markets,
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ipagpatuloy ang globalisasyon ng pandaigdigang merkado,
13:19
keep extending cooperation across national boundaries,
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palawakin ang pakikipagtulungan ng mga bansa,
13:23
and keep investing in education.
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at pahalagahan ang edukasyon.
13:26
Now the United States has a particularly important role
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Ngayon, may malaking bahagi ang Estados Unidos
13:29
to play in this:
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sa pagkakataong ito --
13:32
to keep our education system globalized,
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upang panatilihing globalisado ang sistema ng edukasyon,
13:35
to keep our education system open to students from all over the world,
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upang panatilihing bukas ang sistema ng edukasyon para sa lahat --
13:39
because our education system
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dahil ang sistema ng edukasyon
13:41
is the candle
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ay isang kandilang nagbibigay-liwanag
13:43
that other students come to light their own candles.
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sa ibang mag-aaral upang masindihan ang sariling kandila.
13:48
Now remember here what Jefferson said.
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Alalahanin natin ang sabi ni Jefferson.
13:51
Jefferson said, "When they come
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Sabi ni Jefferson, "Kapag sila'y lumapit
13:54
and light their candles at ours,
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at nakisindi ng kandila,
13:57
they gain light, and we are not darkened."
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nakatatanggap sila ng liwanag, at tayo'y hindi magdidilim."
14:02
But Jefferson wasn't quite right, was he?
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Ngunit may mali sa sinabi ni Jefferson, di ba?
14:05
Because the truth is,
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Sa katunayan,
14:08
when they light their candles at ours,
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kapag nakisindi sila ng kandila,
14:12
there is twice as much light available for everyone.
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dodoble ang ilaw na papakinabangan ng lahat.
14:16
So my view is: Be optimistic.
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Kaya't ang aking pananaw ay positibo.
14:20
Spread the ideas. Spread the light.
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Palaganapin ang mga ideya. Ibahagi ang liwanag.
14:23
Thank you.
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Salamat.
14:25
(Applause)
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(Palakpakan)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alex Tabarrok - EconomistWith the hit economic blog MarginalRevolution.com, co-author Alex Tabarrok generates more hits than a summer hailstorm, and sheds light into the darkest corners of the dismal science.
Why you should listen
Perhaps the appeal of economics in the blogosphere was not pre-ordained from its representation in the bestseller lists (the Freakonomics phenomenon notwithstanding). But economists have taken the internet by storm, and Alex Tabarrok is one of the hottest -- along with co-author Tyler Cowen, their blog marginalrevolution.com is one of the most popular on the web, generating a forest of links and kudos from the mainstream press, including the Wall Street Journal.
Tabarrok's fascinations include the intersection among economics, law and public policy -- examining questions such as how race and poverty affect the outcome of jury trials. Tabarrok is also the Director of Research for the Independent Institute, an assistant editor for the Independent Review, and an Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University.
Alex Tabarrok | Speaker | TED.com