TED2008
Paul Collier: The "bottom billion"
保罗·科利尔(Paul Collier)：最底层的10亿人
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现今世界上，还有10亿人正处于困苦之境中。我们应如何帮助他们？经济学家保罗·科利尔则提出一个大胆且富有同情心的计划以消融贫富差距。
Paul Collier - Economist
Paul Collier’s book The Bottom Billion shows what is happening to the poorest people in the world, and offers ideas for opening up opportunities to all. Full bio
Paul Collier’s book The Bottom Billion shows what is happening to the poorest people in the world, and offers ideas for opening up opportunities to all. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:19
So, can we dare to be optimistic?
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如今，我们仍敢为乐么？
00:22
Well, the thesis of "The Bottom Billion"
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我于《最底层的10亿人》就已提出
00:23
is that a billion people have been stuck living
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现今仍有10亿人被囚于困境中，
00:28
in economies that have been stagnant for 40 years,
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他们所处的世界的经济状况依然是四十年如一日，
00:33
and hence diverging from the rest of mankind.
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因此他们正自我们的世界脱离。
00:37
And so, the real question to pose is not, "Can we be optimistic?"
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所以，应被真正提出的问题是：我们能为乐吗？
00:40
It's, "How can we give credible hope to that billion people?"
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应是：我们应如何向那群人给予可得的前景？
00:45
That, to my mind, is the fundamental challenge now of development.
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这对于我来说，正是阻碍当今发展的主要路障。
00:51
What I'm going to offer you is a recipe,
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我现在就要传授一张秘方给你们，
00:54
a combination of the two forces that changed the world for good,
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这是两股积极力量的组合，
00:59
which is the alliance of compassion and enlightened self-interest.
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它们就是怜悯心与开明的利己心的联盟。
01:06
Compassion, because a billion people are living in societies
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怜悯心，是由于当今世界仍有10亿人处在
01:11
that have not offered credible hope.
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未有前景的社会里。
01:16
That is a human tragedy.
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此乃人类之悲歌。
01:19
Enlightened self-interest, because if that economic divergence
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开明的利己心，假若此种经济分歧
01:24
continues for another 40 years,
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依旧持续另一四十年
01:29
combined with social integration globally,
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此问题将会与全球社会融合
01:33
it will build a nightmare for our children.
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一起成为下一代的梦魇。
01:37
We need compassion to get ourselves started,
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我们需求怜悯以作动力；
01:41
and enlightened self-interest to get ourselves serious.
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我们需求开明的利己心以作效力。
01:47
That's the alliance that changes the world.
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这一联盟将会改变世界。
01:50
So, what does it mean to get serious about providing hope for the bottom billion?
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所以，效力对于那10亿人到底是什么意思？
01:57
What can we actually do?
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我们实际上可做什么？
02:01
Well, a good guide is to think,
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这是一个好的开头，
02:04
"What did we do last time the rich world got serious
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我们最后一次做了什么？那次富有的世界
02:09
about developing another region of the world?"
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是如何有效的变革了另外一部分世界？
02:13
That gives us, it turns out, quite a good clue,
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这就是一个很好的线索，
02:17
except you have to go back quite a long time.
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当然你要回到很久以前[才能找到此线索]。
02:20
The last time the rich world got serious
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这发生于20世纪40年代，
02:22
about developing another region was in the late 1940s.
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那次富有的世界始认真地发展变革另外一地区。
02:28
The rich world was you, America,
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而那富有的世界是你们，美国，
02:33
and the region that needed to be developed was my world, Europe.
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而需要发展的地区则是我们，欧洲。
02:38
That was post-War Europe.
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那是二战后的欧洲。
02:41
Why did America get serious?
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那么，美国为什么会认真起来？
02:44
It wasn't just compassion for Europe, though there was that.
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这不仅仅是对欧洲的同情，虽然事实就是这样。
02:48
It was that you knew you had to,
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因为你们知道你们不得不这样做，
02:51
because, in the late 1940s, country after country in Central Europe
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于40年代末期，成批的中欧国家正倒向
02:56
was falling into the Soviet bloc, and so you knew you'd no choice.
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苏维埃阵营，所以你们只能如此。
03:02
Europe had to be dragged into economic development.
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欧洲定需被拉进一场经济新发展。
03:05
So, what did you do, last time you got serious?
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所以你们上次是怎么做的？
03:09
Well, yes, you had a big aid program. Thank you very much.
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对了，你们筹划起一场巨大的援助计划。非常感谢你们。
03:13
That was Marshall aid: we need to do it again. Aid is part of the solution.
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那就是马歇尔援助计划；我们需要再次实施。援助是解决途径之一。
03:18
But what else did you do?
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除此之外，你们还做了什么？
03:21
Well, you tore up your trade policy, and totally reversed it.
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你们彻底抛弃了原有的贸易政策，而新的则是完全地逆反之。
03:28
Before the war, America had been highly protectionist.
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二战前，美国是高度的贸易保护主义。
03:32
After the war, you opened your markets to Europe,
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二战后，你们则将市场开放给欧洲，
03:36
you dragged Europe into the then-global economy, which was your economy,
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你们将欧洲拉进当时的全球经济，是你们所主导的，
03:40
and you institutionalized that trade liberalization
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并且你们将贸易自由制度化，
03:42
through founding the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.
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这是通过关贸总协定达成的。
03:46
So, total reversal of trade policy.
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这是完全扭转过来的贸易政策。
03:49
Did you do anything else?
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你们还有做其他东西吗？
03:50
Yes, you totally reversed your security policy.
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有。你们彻底扭转了你们的安全政策。
03:53
Before the war, your security policy had been isolationist.
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二战前，你们的安全政策是孤立主义。
03:57
After the war, you tear that up, you put 100,000 troops in Europe
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二战后，你们将至抛诸脑后，你们向欧洲派驻了十万人马，
04:03
for over 40 years.
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而且是长达四十年。
04:05
So, total reversal of security policy. Anything else?
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你们彻底扭转了安全政策。还有吗？
04:10
Yes, you tear up the "Eleventh Commandment" --
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有。你们了抛弃第十一戒—
04:14
national sovereignty.
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国家主权。
04:17
Before the war, you treated national sovereignty as so sacrosanct
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二战前，你们认为国家主权是如此的神圣而不可侵犯，
04:22
that you weren't even willing to join the League of Nations.
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因此你们皆不愿加入国际联盟。
04:25
After the war, you found the United Nations,
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二战后，你们则一手建起联合国、
04:28
you found the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
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经合组织、国际货币基金组织，
04:32
you found the IMF, you encouraged Europe to create the European Community --
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你们怂恿欧洲人建立欧洲共同体。
04:37
all systems for mutual government support.
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所有的体系皆为相互扶持而服务。
04:41
That is still the waterfront of effective policies:
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这些至今仍有用：
04:47
aid, trade, security, governments.
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援助、贸易、安全和政府。
04:51
Of course, the details of policy are going to be different,
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当然，细节上将会有所变更，
04:54
because the challenge is different.
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因为这些都应有所因革。
04:56
It's not rebuilding Europe, it's reversing the divergence
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而且这些不是为了重建欧洲，而应是逆转如今的分歧，
05:02
for the bottom billion, so that they actually catch up.
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从而使最底层的10亿人可以迎头赶上。
05:05
Is that easier or harder?
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这将会是更容易抑或更难？
05:09
We need to be at least as serious as we were then.
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我们至少需要有当时的责任心和态度。
05:14
Now, today I'm going to take just one of those four.
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今天，我将会四选一。
05:19
I'm going to take the one that sounds the weakest,
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我将选取听起来效力最弱的，
05:22
the one that's just motherhood and apple pie --
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那就是母亲和苹果派(注：美国俗语，指美国生活的典型元素)
05:25
governments, mutual systems of support for governments --
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亦就是政府，政府之间的相互扶持，
05:28
and I'm going to show you one idea
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而我则会向你们展示一种新的想法，
05:32
in how we could do something to strengthen governance,
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此想法将告诉你们如何去加强政府的管理方式，
05:37
and I'm going to show you that that is enormously important now.
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这对如今的世界是极其重要的。
05:44
The opportunity we're going to look to
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如今正有一机会可以使我们敢乐，
05:49
is a genuine basis for optimism about the bottom billion,
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使那最底层的10亿人受益，
05:55
and that is the commodity booms.
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而这就是商品的繁荣。
05:58
The commodity booms are pumping unprecedented amounts of money
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商品的繁荣正将不可胜数的钱财注入至
06:04
into many, though not all, of the countries of the bottom billion.
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很多，但不是全部，最底层的10亿人所处的国家。
06:10
Partly, they're pumping money in because commodity prices are high,
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他们将金钱注入这些国家一部分是因为商品的价格很高，
06:14
but it's not just that. There's also a range of new discoveries.
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但这并非全貌。在那些国家他们发现了一系列的资源。
06:21
Uganda has just discovered oil, in about the most disastrous location on Earth;
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乌干达刚刚被发现储有石油，而那是地球上最灾难性的地方；
06:27
Ghana has discovered oil;
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加纳也被发现储有石油；
06:29
Guinea has got a huge new exploitation of iron ore coming out of the ground.
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几内亚则被发现储有丰富的铁矿资源。
06:34
So, a mass of new discoveries.
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所以，一系列的新发型。
06:37
Between them, these new revenue flows dwarf aid.
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这些新的税收收入使援助金额相形见绌。
06:42
Just to give you one example:
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就给你们一个例子：
06:45
Angola alone is getting 50 billion dollars a year in oil revenue.
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安哥拉每年从开采石油中可获益五百亿美元。
06:50
The entire aid flows to the 60 countries of the bottom billion last year were 34 billion.
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去年向那群最底层的10亿人所处的60个国家提供的援助资金则仅为340亿美元。
06:56
So, the flow of resources from the commodity booms
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因此商品的繁荣将
07:01
to the bottom billion are without precedent.
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给最底层的10亿人带来可触的未来。
07:06
So there's the optimism.
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因此希望就存于此。
07:08
The question is, how is it going to help their development?
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不过问题是我们如何帮助他们发展？
07:12
It's a huge opportunity for transformational development.
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这是对发展进行转型的巨大机遇。
07:16
Will it be taken?
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这会被采纳么？
07:18
So, here comes a bit of science, and this is a bit of science I've done
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为此，我对这个问题做了一点研究，
07:22
since "The Bottom Billion," so it's new.
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这是在我出书之后才做的，所以这应该是新的。
07:25
I've looked to see what is the relationship between
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我前去观察了高昂的商品出口价格
07:29
higher commodity prices of exports,
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与商品出口国数量增长
07:32
and the growth of commodity-exporting countries.
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之间的关系。
07:34
And I've looked globally, I've taken all the countries in the world
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我是用全球化视角进行观察的，我将全球所有国家都囊括进内，
07:37
for the last 40 years,
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且从40年前开始看起，
07:39
and looked to see what the relationship is.
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以来查看这两者之间的关系。
07:42
And the short run -- say, the first five to seven years -- is just great.
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从短期来看--大概是第一个五到七年之间--它们的关系是很好的。
07:51
In fact, it's hunky dory: everything goes up.
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应该说是极好的：所有东西都保持着上升的势头。
07:56
You get more money because your terms of trade have improved,
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因为贸易势头的增加，你所赚得的利润也会增长，
07:58
but also that drives up output across the board.
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但同时这也将所有人都陷入内。
08:01
So GDP goes up a lot -- fantastic! That's the short run.
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因此国民生产总值也上扬了--很好！但这仅是短期。
08:07
And how about the long run?
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从长期来看如何？
08:09
Come back 15 years later.
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让我们看15年后的景象。
08:12
Well, the short run, it's hunky dory,
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从短期来看，是福；
08:14
but the long run, it's humpty dumpty.
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但从长期来看，那就是祸了。
08:19
You go up in the short run, but then most societies
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虽然你能暂于短期中加速，但大部分社会，
08:23
historically have ended up worse than if they'd had no booms at all.
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从历史角度看，都落得个极惨的结果，几乎都被打回原点。
08:28
That is not a forecast about how commodity prices go;
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这并不是对商品价格增长的预测；
08:32
it's a forecast of the consequences, the long-term consequences,
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而是对结果的预测，对长期结果的预测，
08:36
for growth of an increase in prices.
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对总体趋势的预测。
08:41
So, what goes wrong? Why is there this "resource curse," as it's called?
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因此是什么出错了？为什么会有“资源诅咒”(注:经济学术语)的存在？
08:46
And again, I've looked at that, and it turns out
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所以我再次对此进行研究，结果表明
08:49
that the critical issue is the level of governance,
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关键的问题在产生依赖资源发展时，
08:53
the initial level of economic governance,
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该社会的执政水平，
08:55
when the resource booms accrue.
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对经济控制的能力。
08:58
In fact, if you've got good enough governance,
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实际上，假如你们的政府拥有足够的执政水平，
09:00
there is no resource boom.
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过度依赖资源是不会发生的。
09:02
You go up in the short term, and then you go up even more in the long term.
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这才是长远之道。
09:07
That's Norway, the richest country in Europe. It's Australia. It's Canada.
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那就是挪威，欧洲最富有的国家。那是澳大利亚，是加拿大。
09:13
The resource curse is entirely confined to countries
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资源诅咒完全被这些国家的强有效的
09:15
below a threshold of governance.
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管理方式扼杀。
09:17
They still go up in the short run.
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但对大部分正处于最底层的10亿人的国家来说，
09:19
That's what we're seeing across the bottom billion at the moment.
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他们采取的都是速成之道。
09:23
The best growth rates they've had -- ever.
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他们现今的增长速率是有史以来最好的。
09:26
And the question is whether the short run will persist.
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只是问题在于他们能否保持这股劲头。
09:32
And with bad governance historically, over the last 40 years, it hasn't.
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从历史来看，他们的政府同40年前一样无能。
09:36
It's countries like Nigeria, which are worse off than if they'd never had oil.
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譬如说尼日利亚，假若他们没开采石油，他们的境况应会更好。
09:44
So, there's a threshold level above which you go up in the long term,
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因此对于那些国家能否进入长久发展
09:49
and below which you go down.
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抑或是短期速跑是有一个门槛的存在。
09:51
Just to benchmark that threshold,
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这个门槛打个比方说
09:53
it's about the governance level of Portugal in the mid 1980s.
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就应是葡萄牙于80年代中期的执政水平。
10:00
So, the question is, are the bottom billion above or below that threshold?
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所以问题变成了，这些国家的执政水平到底是跨过这道门槛还是没有跨过？
10:05
Now, there's one big change since the commodity booms of the 1970s,
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自从70年代商品经济繁荣以来，
10:10
and that is the spread of democracy.
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民主的观念正不断的传播。
10:13
So I thought, well, maybe that is the thing
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因此我认为这正是使那些国家的政府
10:15
which has transformed governance in the bottom billion.
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发生转变的关键要素。
10:17
Maybe we can be more optimistic because of the spread of democracy.
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也许因为民主的传播，我们可以对此抱乐观的态度。
10:21
So, I looked. Democracy does have significant effects --
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民主的观念的确带来了明显的作用--
10:26
and unfortunately, they're adverse.
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但非正面的作用。
10:29
Democracies make even more of a mess of these resource booms than autocracies.
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民主所带来的麻烦比独裁还麻烦。
10:35
At that stage I just wanted to abandon the research, but --
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在这个阶段，我正想放弃研究，但--
10:38
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
10:40
-- it turns out that democracy is a little bit more complicated than that.
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--结果显明民主所带来的效用不仅限于此。
10:43
Because there are two distinct aspects of democracy:
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因为哪里有两种不同的民主。
10:47
there's electoral competition, which determines how you acquire power,
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选举竞争，决定着你如何上位；
10:52
and there are checks and balances, which determine how you use power.
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制衡，则决定着你如何使用权力。
10:58
It turns out that electoral competition is the thing
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原来带来负面效果的民主
11:00
that's doing the damage with democracy,
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是选举竞争，
11:02
whereas strong checks and balances make resource booms good.
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而强力的制衡则可引出商品繁荣好的一面。
11:07
And so, what the countries of the bottom billion need
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因此那些国家所需的就是
11:10
is very strong checks and balances.
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有力的制衡制度。
11:12
They haven't got them.
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但它们仍未取得这些东西。
11:14
They got instant democracy in the 1990s:
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他们于90年代就直接获得了民主：
11:17
elections without checks and balances.
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没有任何制衡制度存在的选举。
11:20
How can we help improve governance and introduce checks and balances?
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我们应如何帮助他们增强政府的权威并且引进制衡制度呢？
11:26
In all the societies of the bottom billion,
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对所有最底层的10亿人所处的国家里，
11:28
there are intense struggles to do just that.
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他们都要通过惨烈的斗争才能摘取果实。
11:33
The simple proposal is that we should have some international standards,
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我们应该建立一些国际标准，
11:38
which will be voluntary, but which would spell out the key decision points
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应该是可控的，但同时也应阐明
11:43
that need to be taken in order
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掌控这些资源财富的
11:46
to harness these resource revenues.
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关键步骤是什么。
11:49
We know these international standards work
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我们知道这些国际标准是有效的，
11:51
because we've already got one.
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我们已经建立了一个。
11:53
It's called the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative.
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那就是《采掘业透明度倡议》。
11:56
That is the very simple idea that governments should report
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这个倡议的内容很简单，就是需要政府
12:01
to their citizens what revenues they have.
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向他们的民众进行财政收入汇报。
12:04
No sooner was it proposed
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但这个倡议被提出时
12:06
than reformers in Nigeria adopted it, pushed it and published the revenues in the paper.
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尼日利亚的改革者就接受了此项倡议，并紧接着于报纸上公布了他们的税收情况。
12:13
Nigerian newspapers circulations spiked.
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这些报纸马上销售一空。
12:15
People wanted to know what their government was getting
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人民渴望得知他们政府的
12:18
in terms of revenue.
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税收情况。
12:21
So, we know it works. What would the content be of these international standards?
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因此我们知道这是有效的。但这些国际规则的具体条文应是什么呢？
12:28
I can't go through all of them, but I'll give you an example.
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我没时间进行细述，就举个例子吧。
12:33
The first is how to take the resources out of the ground --
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第一个则是怎么样将资源取出来--
12:37
the economic processes, taking the resources out of the ground
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这是一个经济进程，将资源取出来
12:40
and putting assets on top of the ground.
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然后转变成为财产。
12:43
And the first step in that is selling the rights to resource extraction.
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因此第一步就应是出售资源开采权。
12:47
You know how rights to resource extraction are being sold at the moment,
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你们都知道资源开采权是现正被出售的，
12:51
how they've been sold over the last 40 years?
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但从过去40年来看，它们是怎么样被出售的呢？
12:53
A company flies in, does a deal with a minister.
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一间公司插入，与部长进行交易，
12:57
And that's great for the company,
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这对这间公司和这位部长
12:59
and it's quite often great for the minister --
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来说，是双赢--
13:01
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
13:02
-- and it's not great for their country.
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--但通常是对这个国家的打击。
13:05
There's a very simple institutional technology
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这里有一项非常简单的科技体制，
13:07
which can transform that,
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它就叫作拍卖验证，
13:09
and it's called verified auctions.
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这可以改变这种情形。
13:14
The public agency with the greatest expertise on Earth
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与地球上所存的所有公共机构中，专业知识量最大的
13:20
is of course the treasury -- that is, the British Treasury.
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当然是财政部--英国财政部则是其中翘楚。
13:23
And the British Treasury decided that it would sell the rights
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英国财政部决定将某些权力贩卖给
13:26
to third-generation mobile phones
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第三代移动电话时，
13:28
by working out what those rights were worth.
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他们需要计算这些权力价值几何。
13:31
They worked out they were worth two billion pounds.
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他们算出这些权力共值二十亿英镑。
13:34
Just in time, a set of economists got there and said,
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同一时间，一群经济学家则提议
13:37
"Why not try an auction? It'll reveal the value."
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说：“为什么不举办一场拍卖会？这将会显示[这些东西的]价值。”
13:40
It went for 20 billion pounds through auction.
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拍卖会的成果则是两百亿英镑。
13:44
If the British Treasury can be out by a factor of 10,
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假若英国财政部的亏损额可达到10的倍数，
13:47
think what the ministry of finance in Sierra Leone is going to be like.
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那么想想塞拉利昂的财政部会做出什么事来。
13:50
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
13:51
When I put that to the President of Sierra Leone,
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当我将此项提议提交给塞拉利昂的总统时，
13:53
the next day he asked the World Bank to send him a team
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第二天这位总统就像世界银行提出申请，
13:56
to give expertise on how to conduct auctions.
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申请派出一队专家以帮助他们举行拍卖会。
14:01
There are five such decision points;
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一共有五个关键的步骤；
14:03
each one needs an international standard.
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每个步骤都应用相应的国际标准以兹辅助。
14:07
If we could do it, we would change the world.
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假若我们可以做到，我们就是改变世界。
14:11
We would be helping the reformers in these societies,
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我们可以帮助那些变革者，
14:15
who are struggling for change.
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帮助他们的社会进行变革。
14:18
That's our modest role. We cannot change these societies,
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这就是我们的职责。我们无法改变那些社会，
14:22
but we can help the people in these societies
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但我们可以帮助其国人改变社会，
14:25
who are struggling and usually failing,
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因为他们通常都在挣扎中，且经常失败，
14:28
because the odds are so stacked against them.
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这是由于成堆的不利条件击倒了他们。
14:34
And yet, we've not got these rules.
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如今，我们还未建立那些规则。
14:37
If you think about it, the cost of promulgating international rules
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假若你们思考下，颁布这些国际规则成本
14:41
is zilch -- nothing.
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就是零--不需任何成本。
14:44
Why on Earth are they not there?
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但它们为何就是没有呢？
14:48
I realized that the reason they're not there
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我意识到问题的根源所在就是
14:52
is that until we have a critical mass of informed citizens in our own societies,
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政客们总是故作姿态、不做实事，
14:58
politicians will get away with gestures.
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除非我们的国家都拥有一群知情的公民。
15:01
That unless we have an informed society,
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除非我们有一个开明的社会，
15:06
what politicians do, especially in relation to Africa, is gestures:
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政客们对于非洲问题都只是做做姿态：
15:12
things that look good, but don't work.
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信言不美，美言不信啊。
15:15
And so I realized we had to go through the business
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我又意识到我们还需要
15:18
of building an informed citizenry.
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建立起一个开明的社会。
15:22
That's why I broke all the professional rules of conduct for an economist,
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这就是我破除所有为经济学家制定的规则
15:27
and I wrote an economics book that you could read on a beach.
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以来写一部可以在沙滩上阅读的经济学著作。
15:30
(Laughter).
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(笑声)
15:35
However, I have to say, the process of communication
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不过，我不得不说，进行沟通
15:39
does not come naturally to me.
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并不是如此容易的。
15:41
This is why I'm on this stage, but it's alarming.
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这就我站在这个舞台上的原因，但却是发人深省的。
15:45
I grew up in a culture of self-effacement.
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我是生长一种自谦的文化氛围中。
15:53
My wife showed me a blog comment on one of my last talks,
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我的妻子向我展示了一个对我演讲进行批评的博客评论，
15:57
and the blog comment said, "Collier is not charismatic --
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这个博客评论则说：“科利尔并不迷人--
16:03
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
16:06
-- but his arguments are compelling."
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--但他的说理则令人信服。”
16:09
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
16:13
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
16:20
If you agree with that sentiment,
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假使你们同意这一观点，
16:23
and if you agree that we need a critical mass of informed citizenry,
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而且你们同意我们需要一个开明的社会和一群知情的民众，
16:29
you will realize that I need you.
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你们则会意识到我需要你们。
16:33
Please, become ambassadors.
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请成为[我的]代表吧。
16:35
Thank you.
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谢谢。
16:37
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Collier - EconomistPaul Collier’s book The Bottom Billion shows what is happening to the poorest people in the world, and offers ideas for opening up opportunities to all.
Why you should listen
Paul Collier studies the political and economic problems of the very poorest countries: 50 societies, many in sub-Saharan Africa, that are stagnating or in decline, and taking a billion people down with them. His book The Bottom Billion identifies the four traps that keep such countries mired in poverty, and outlines ways to help them escape, with a mix of direct aid and external support for internal change.
From 1998 to 2003, Collier was the director of the World Bank's Development Research Group; he now directs the Centre for the Study of African Economies at Oxford, where he continues to advise policymakers.
Paul Collier | Speaker | TED.com