ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Hessburg - Research ecologist
Paul Hessburg studies very large forest landscapes and what makes them tick.

Why you should listen

Paul Hessburg is a research ecologist who builds models of historical and modern era conditions in large forests and studies what factors make them behave as they do. In fact, much of his research is trying to decipher what is normal. In his research, Hessburg wants to know how the forests we inherited worked before we changed them. What did "natural" look like, and what specifically did we change about naturalness? What's still working well, and what could use a hand down?

Hessburg has spent most of his adult life (35 years) in his dream job. He works for the USDA, Forest Service, at the Pacific Northwest Research Station, where he is stationed at a field laboratory in Wenatchee, WA, US. That's located about five blocks just east of heaven, he says. He has a doctorate in Forest Pathology from Oregon State University, and he has been working in forestry for 40 years. He's also an Affiliate Professor at the University of Washington, Seattle, USA. 

In 2017, Hessburg was awarded his Research Station's Distinguished Scientist Award, and he will be awarded his Agencies' Distinguished Scientist Award for 2017, in February of 2018.

Over the last two years, Paul has traveled and spoken to over 100 western US communities about the new era of megafires and what we can do about it. As he says, "Unless we change a few of our forest and fire management habits in the US, we will lose many more beloved forests; some won’t recover in our lifetime."

More profile about the speaker
Paul Hessburg | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxBend

Paul Hessburg: Why wildfires have gotten worse -- and what we can do about it

保罗·赫斯伯格: 为什么森林火灾越来越严重——我们应该如何阻止

Filmed:
1,282,030 views

大型火灾,也就是单次着火面积超过400平方公里的火灾,在美国西部发生的次数越来越多。导致这一结果的直接原因,是一个世纪以来,我们对于森林的错误管理,给森林带来了巨大的改变——出于无心,却影响巨大。我们如何避免更大的损失?森林生态学家保罗·赫斯伯格指出了森林火灾的一些残酷事实,并建议我们该如何恢复森林的自然平衡。
- Research ecologist
Paul Hessburg studies very large forest landscapes and what makes them tick. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:13
As you've probably大概 noticed注意到,
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大家可能注意到了,
00:14
in recent最近 years年份, a lot
of western西 forests森林 have burned
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近几年,西部很多森林爆发了
大规模毁灭性的火灾。
00:17
in large and destructive有害 wildfires野火.
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你们可能跟我一样,
00:22
If you're like me --
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00:24
this western西 landscape景观
is actually其实 why my family家庭 and I live生活 here.
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西部的森林正是吸引我和我的家人
生活在那里的原因。
00:29
And as a scientist科学家 and a father父亲,
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作为一名科学家,一名父亲,
00:31
I've become成为 deeply concerned关心
about what we're leaving离开 behind背后
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我为我们留给子孙后代的东西
感到深深的担忧,
为我的孩子,还有我的5个孙辈。
00:35
for our kids孩子, and now my five grandkids孙子.
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00:40
In the US, an area that's larger
than the state of Oregon俄勒冈 has burned
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在美国,仅仅过去10年间,
就有相当于俄勒冈州这么大的面积
被火灾烧毁,
00:45
in just the last 10 years年份,
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00:48
and tens of thousands数千 of homes家园
have been destroyed销毁.
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数万的房屋被毁。
00:53
Acres burned and homes家园 destroyed销毁
have steadily稳步 increased增加
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火灾面积和被毁房屋数量
在过去30年间
一直在持续增长,
00:57
over the last three decades几十年,
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01:02
and individual个人 fires火灾 that are bigger
than 100,000 acres --
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着火面积超过405平方公里的
单场火灾数量
01:07
they're actually其实 on the rise上升.
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也在增长。
我们称之为“大型火灾”。
01:09
These are what we call "megafiresmegafires."
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01:13
MegafiresMegafires are the result结果 of the way
we've我们已经 managed管理 this western西 landscape景观
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大型火灾是过去150年间,
我们在持续变暖的气候下
管理这美丽的西部森林
01:18
over the last 150 years年份
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01:20
in a steadily稳步 warming变暖 climate气候.
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所导致的后果。
01:23
Much of the destruction毁坏
that we are currently目前 seeing眼看
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很多我们如今看到的灾难
01:27
could actually其实 have been avoided避免.
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本来是可以避免的。
01:30
I've spent花费 my entire整个 career事业
studying研究 these western西 landscapes景观,
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我整个职业生涯
都在研究西部的森林,
01:34
and the science科学 is pretty漂亮 clear明确:
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其中的科学道理其实很简单:
01:36
if we don't change更改 a few少数
of our fire-management消防管理 habits习惯,
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如果我们不改变一些防火习惯,
01:41
we're going to lose失去 many许多 more
of our beloved心爱 forests森林.
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我们还将失去更多珍爱的森林。
01:46
Some won't惯于 recover恢复 in our lifetime一生
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其中一些可能在我们这一代,
01:49
or my kids'孩子们 lifetime一生.
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甚至是下一代都无法恢复。
01:51
It's time we confront面对
some tough强硬 truths真理 about wildfires野火,
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我们要面对森林火灾的
几个残酷事实,
01:56
and come to understand理解 that we need
to learn学习 to better live生活 with them
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要明白,我们需要学会适应它,
02:01
and change更改 how they come to our forests森林,
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如何改变它来临的方式,
无论是对森林,
02:04
our homes家园
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对我们的家,
02:07
and our communities社区.
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还是对我们的社区。
02:09
So why is this happening事件?
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那么森林火灾是怎么发生的呢?
02:11
Well, that's what I want
to talk to you about today今天.
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这正是我今天要讲的。
看到这片森林了吗?
02:16
You see this forest森林?
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02:20
Isn't it beautiful美丽?
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真是漂亮极了。
02:29
Well, the forests森林 that we see today今天
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我们今天看到的森林
02:33
look nothing like the forests森林
of 100 or 150 years年份 ago.
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与100到150年前的
森林完全不同。
02:39
Thankfully感激地, panoramic全景 photos相片
were taken采取 in the 1930s
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幸亏在30年代,
数以千计的西部山区防火员
02:43
from thousands数千 of western西
mountaintop山顶 lookouts瞭望,
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拍下了许多全景照片,
02:46
and they show显示 a fair公平 approximation近似
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能让我们一窥所继承的森林的
大致情况。
02:49
of the forest森林 that we inherited遗传.
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02:52
The best最好 word to describe描述
these forests森林 of old is "patchy片状."
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形容这些森林最好的一个词
就是“参差不齐”。
02:57
The historical历史的 forest森林 landscape景观
was this constantly经常 evolving进化 patchwork拼凑物
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历史上的森林景观
就是这种不断发展的块状区域,
03:01
of open打开 and closed关闭
canopy华盖 forests森林 of all ages年龄,
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里面是各个时期的森林,疏密相间,
有许多火灾的痕迹。
03:05
and there was so much evidence证据 of fire.
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03:09
And most fires火灾 were pretty漂亮 small
by today's今天的 standards标准.
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如果按今天的标准来看,
大部分火灾都很小。
03:14
And it's important重要 to understand理解
that this landscape景观 was open打开,
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很重要的一点,
这些森林间是有空隙的,
03:18
with meadows草甸 and open打开 canopy华盖 forests森林,
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中间有草地,树林疏密相间,
是这些林间草地
03:20
and it was the grasses of the meadows草甸
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和位于树林间的落叶层
03:22
and in the grassy绿色的 understoriesunderstories
of the open打开 forest森林
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03:26
that many许多 of the wildfires野火 were carried携带的.
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承受了大部分的火灾。
03:31
There were other forces军队 at work, too,
shaping成型 this historical历史的 patchwork拼凑物:
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还有其他的力量
也对造成这种块状区域起了作用:
比如地形,是朝南还是朝北,
03:35
for example, topography地形,
whether是否 a place地点 faces面孔 north or south
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03:39
or it's on a ridge top最佳
or in a valley bottom底部;
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是在山脊还是在谷底,
03:42
elevation海拔, how far up the mountain it is;
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还有海拔,也就是山的高度,
还有天气,是否有大量雨雪,
03:45
and weather天气, whether是否 a place地点
gets得到 a lot of snow and rain,
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03:49
sunlight阳光 and warmth热情.
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日照和气温。
03:52
These things all worked工作 together一起
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这些因素共同作用
决定了森林生长的方式。
03:55
to shape形状 the way the forest森林 grew成长.
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03:57
And the way the forest森林 grew成长
shaped成形 the way fire behaved
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而森林生长的方式
又决定了火灾
如何对地貌产生影响。
04:03
on the landscape景观.
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04:05
There was crosstalk相声
between之间 the patterns模式 and the processes流程.
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模式和过程互相交织,相互干扰。
04:10
You can see the new dry forest森林.
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大家看新的干燥森林。
树是开放生长的,
树之间的空隙比较大。
04:12
Trees were open打开 grown长大的
and fairly相当 far apart距离.
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04:15
Fires火灾 were frequent频繁 here,
and when they occurred发生,
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火灾在这个区域经常发生,
但并不会很严重,
04:18
they weren't that severe严重,
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04:19
while further进一步 up the mountain,
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再往山上走,
04:21
in the moist湿 and the cold forests森林,
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在潮湿和寒冷的森林里,
04:23
trees树木 were more densely密地 grown长大的
and fires火灾 were less frequent频繁,
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树木生长密集,火灾频率不高,
04:26
but when they occurred发生,
they were quite相当 a bit more severe严重.
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但是一旦发生,就会更加严重。
04:30
These different不同 forest森林 types类型,
the environments环境 that they grew成长 in
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森林的种类不同,生长环境不同,
04:33
and fire severity严重 --
they all worked工作 together一起
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还有火灾的严重程度,
这些因素交织在一起,
共同形成了历史区块。
04:36
to shape形状 this historical历史的 patchwork拼凑物.
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04:40
And there was so much power功率
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这种区块的作用
非常强大。
04:43
in this patchwork拼凑物.
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04:45
It provided提供 a natural自然 mechanism机制
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它是一种天然的防御机制
04:48
to resist the spread传播 of future未来 fires火灾
across横过 the landscape景观.
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防止未来的火灾蔓延到整个森林。
04:53
Once一旦 a patch补丁 of forest森林 burned,
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一旦某一个区块的森林着火了,
04:55
it helped帮助 to prevent避免 the flow
of fire across横过 the landscape景观.
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它能防止火灾蔓延到别的区块。
04:59
A way to think about it is,
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换句话说,
05:00
the burned patches补丁
helped帮助 the rest休息 of the forest森林
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着火的区块拯救了剩下的森林,
05:05
to be forest森林.
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让它们得以延续。
05:08
Let's add humans人类 to the mix混合.
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让我们加入人类的影响。
05:11
For 10,000 years年份, Native本地人 Americans美国人
lived生活 on this landscape景观,
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1万年来,美洲原住民生活在这里,
05:14
and they intentionally故意地 burned it -- a lot.
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他们焚烧了大片森林。
05:19
They used fire to burn烧伤 meadows草甸
and to thin certain某些 forests森林
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他们焚烧草地,把森林变得稀疏,
05:23
so they could grow增长 more food餐饮.
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这样可以种更多粮食。
05:25
They used fire to increase增加 graze轻擦
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他们增加牧草,
05:28
for the deer鹿 and the elk麋鹿
and the bison野牛 that they hunted猎杀.
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用来喂养捕猎来的鹿、麋鹿和野牛。
05:32
And most importantly重要的, they figured想通 out
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最重要的是,他们发现,
05:34
if they burned in the spring弹簧 and the fall秋季,
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如果他们在春季和秋季焚烧的话,
05:37
they could avoid避免 the out-of-control外的控制
fires火灾 of summer夏季.
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就可以避免在夏季
出现无法控制的大火。
05:41
European欧洲的 settlement沉降 -- it occurred发生
much later后来, in the mid-中-1800s,
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欧洲移民——这已经是
很久以后的事儿了,在19世纪中叶,
05:46
and by the 1880s, livestock家畜
grazing放牧 was in high gear齿轮.
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在19世纪80年代,
畜牧业发展很快,
05:50
I mean, if you think about it,
the cattle黄牛 and the sheep ate the grasses
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想象一下,牛羊吃掉的草
05:54
which哪一个 had been the conveyer输送带 belt
for the historical历史的 fires火灾,
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是历史上那些火灾的传送带,
05:58
and this prevented防止 once-frequent一旦频繁 fires火灾
from thinning细化 out trees树木
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它们阻止了日渐稀薄的森林中
曾经频发的火灾,
06:02
and burning燃烧 up dead wood.
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并且清除死掉的树木。
06:04
Later后来 came来了 roads道路 and railroads铁路,
and they acted行动 as potent有力的 firebreaks防火带,
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然后公路和铁路出现了,
它们是有效的防火道,
06:09
interrupting中断 further进一步 the flow of fire
across横过 this landscape景观.
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能防止火灾蔓延到整片森林。
06:13
And then something happened发生
which哪一个 caused造成 a sudden突然 pivot
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之后发生了一件事情,
彻底改变了我们的社会。
06:17
in our society社会.
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06:19
In 1910, we had a huge巨大 wildfire磷火.
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1910年,发生了一场巨大的火灾。
06:23
It was the size尺寸
of the state of Connecticut康涅狄格.
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着火面积有康涅狄格州那么大。
06:27
We called it "the Big Burn烧伤."
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我们称之为“大火灾”。
06:29
It stretched拉伸 from eastern Washington华盛顿
to western西 Montana蒙大拿,
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它从华盛顿东部一直蔓延到
蒙大拿州西部,
06:33
and it burned, in a few少数 days,
three million百万 acres,
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在短短几天内,
它烧毁了约12000平方公里的土地,
06:37
devoured吞噬 several一些 towns城市,
and it killed杀害 87 people.
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毁掉了许多村庄,有87人丧生。
大部分是消防员。
06:42
Most of them were firefighters消防员.
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06:45
Because of the Big Burn烧伤, wildfire磷火
became成为 public上市 enemy敌人 number one,
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因为这场大火灾,森林火灾成为了
公众的头号敌人,
06:49
and this would shape形状 the way
that we would think about wildfire磷火
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这件事改变了我们整个社会
在接下来100年里
06:52
in our society社会
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06:53
for the next下一个 hundred years年份.
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对于森林大火的看法。
06:56
Thereafter此后, the Forest森林 Service服务,
just five years年份 young年轻 at the time,
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之后,刚刚成立5年的
国家森林局,
07:00
was tasked任务 with the responsibility责任
of putting out all wildfires野火
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承担起了在78万
平方公里的公共土地上
07:05
on 193 million百万 acres of public上市 lands土地,
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扑灭火灾的责任,
07:09
and they took this responsibility责任
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他们将这项责任
看得很重。
07:11
very seriously认真地.
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07:12
They developed发达 this unequaled无比
ability能力 to put fires火灾 out,
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他们发展出了灭火的超级能力,
07:16
and they put out 95 to 98 percent百分
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扑灭了每年发生在美国的
07:20
of all fires火灾 every一切 single year in the US.
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火灾中的95%-98%。
07:25
And from this point on,
it was now fire suppression抑制
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从那时开始,森林的主要塑形者
07:29
and not wildfires野火
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就不再是森林大火,
07:30
that would become成为 a prime主要
shaper整形 of our forests森林.
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而是对森林大火的压制。
07:35
After World世界 War战争 IIII, timber木材 harvesting收获
got going in the west西,
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二战过后,伐木业开始进入西部,
07:39
and the logging记录 removed去除
the large and the old trees树木.
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砍伐掉了许多巨大而古老的树木。
07:42
These were survivors幸存者
of centuries百年 of wildfires野火.
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它们是几个世纪以来
森林大火的幸存者。
07:47
And the forest森林 filled填充 in.
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新的森林补充进来。
07:49
Thin-barked薄吠叫, fire-sensitive火敏感
small trees树木 filled填充 in the gaps空白,
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是那些树皮很薄,容易着火的小树,
07:54
and our forests森林 became成为 dense稠密,
with trees树木 so layered分层 and close together一起
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我们的森林变得浓密,
层层叠叠,距离很近,
08:00
that they were touching接触 each other.
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互相紧挨着。
08:03
So fires火灾 were unintentionally无意中 blocked受阻
by roads道路 and railroads铁路,
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于是大火无意中
被公路和铁路阻断,
08:07
the cattle黄牛 and sheep ate the grass,
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牛羊吃光了林间的草地,
08:09
then along沿 comes fire suppression抑制
and logging记录, removing去除 the big trees树木,
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对火灾的压制
以及被伐木业移除的大树,
08:14
and you know what happened发生?
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结果怎么样?
08:15
All these factors因素 worked工作 together一起
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所有这些因素叠加在一起
08:17
to allow允许 the forest森林 to fill in,
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让新的森林补充进来,
08:20
creating创建 what I call
the current当前 epidemic疫情 of trees树木.
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我称之为“树木成灾”。
08:25
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
08:28
Go figure数字.
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想想吧。
08:29
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
08:30
More trees树木 than the landscape景观 can support支持.
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树木的数量超出了
森林的承受范围。
08:35
So when you compare比较 what forests森林
looked看着 like 100 years年份 ago and today今天,
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所以比较一下100年前
和现在的森林,
08:40
the change更改 is actually其实 remarkable卓越.
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变化还是很大的。
08:42
Notice注意 how the patchwork拼凑物 has filled填充 in.
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看这些区块是如何形成的。
08:45
Dry south slopes连续下坡 --
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南边干燥的斜坡,
08:46
they're now covered覆盖 with trees树木.
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现在已经长满了树。
08:49
A patchwork拼凑物 that was once一旦
sculptured雕塑 by mostly大多 small
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这些区块曾经是因为小型
08:52
and sort分类 of medium-sized中型 fires火灾
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或者中型的火灾形成的,
08:54
has filled填充 in.
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如今已经长满了树。
08:56
Do you see the blanket of trees树木?
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看到这一层由树木组成的毯子了吗?
08:58
After just 150 years年份,
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仅仅150年,
09:00
we have a dense稠密 carpet地毯 of forest森林.
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就形成了如此致密的树林。
09:03
But there's more.
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不仅如此,
09:05
Because trees树木 are growing生长
so close together一起,
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因为树木是紧挨着生长起来的,
09:08
and because tree species种类,
tree sizes大小 and ages年龄
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而且在很大的一片区域内,
09:11
are so similar类似 across横过 large areas,
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树木的种类、尺寸和年龄都很相似,
09:15
fires火灾 not only move移动 easily容易
from acre英亩 to acre英亩,
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不仅导致火灾很容易蔓延,
09:18
but now, so do diseases疾病
and insect昆虫 outbreaks爆发,
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而且一旦有疾病或者病虫害爆发,
09:23
which哪一个 are killing谋杀 or reducing减少 the vitality活力
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就会导致大片的森林
09:27
of really large sections部分 of forest森林 now.
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死亡或者是生病。
09:30
And after a century世纪 without fire,
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经历了没有火灾的1个世纪之后,
09:33
dead branches分支机构 and downed击落 trees树木
on the forest森林 floor地板,
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林间铺满了枯枝和倒下的树木,
09:36
they're at powder-keg粉桶 levels水平.
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就像随时会爆炸的火药桶。
09:39
What's more, our summers夏天
are getting得到 hotter
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更严重的是,
如今的夏天是越来越热了,
09:42
and they're getting得到 drier干燥剂
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也更加干燥,
09:44
and they're getting得到 windier多风.
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更加多风。
09:47
And the fire season季节 is now
40 to 80 days longer each year.
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每年的火灾季都会延长40-80天。
09:53
Because of this,
climatologists气象学 are predicting预测
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2500
基于此,气候学家预测,
09:55
that the area burned since以来 2000
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2000年以后发生过火灾的地区,
09:58
will double or triple三倍
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在未来30年
10:01
in the next下一个 three decades几十年.
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数量会增致2倍甚至3倍。
10:05
And we're building建造 houses房屋
in the middle中间 of this.
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我们在森林中盖房子。
10:08
Two recently最近 published发表 studies学习 tell us
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最近公布的2项研究结果表明,
10:10
that more than 60 percent百分
of all new housing住房 starts启动 are being存在 built内置
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有超过60%的新建房屋
是位于这些易燃的危险区域。
10:15
in this flammable易燃的 and dangerous危险 mess食堂.
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10:19
So when we do get a fire,
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所以一旦着起火来,
10:21
large areas can literally按照字面 go up in smoke抽烟.
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会很快蔓延到大片的区域。
那么在看了我最开始
10:28
How do you feel now
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10:31
about the forest森林 image图片
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展示的关于森林的照片
10:34
that I first showed显示 you?
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你们现在是什么感受?
10:35
It scares恐慌 the heck赫克 out of me.
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反正我是被吓坏了。
10:39
So what do we do?
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那我们应该怎么做?
10:42
We need to restore恢复
the power功率 of the patchwork拼凑物.
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我们要重新发挥区块的作用。
10:45
We need to put the right kind of fire
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要把程度合适的火灾
10:48
back into the system系统 again.
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重新引入到整个系统中间。
10:50
It's how we can resize调整
the severity严重 of many许多 of our future未来 fires火灾.
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这样我们才能够控制
未来火灾的剧烈程度。
10:57
And the silver lining is
that we have tools工具
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值得庆幸的是我们有工具,
10:59
and we have know-how知识 to do this.
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我们也很清楚应该怎么做。
11:02
Let's look at some of the tools工具.
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我们来看看其中一些工具。
11:04
We can use prescribed规定 burning燃烧
to intentionally故意地 thin out trees树木
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我们可以安排有计划的焚烧,
来有意地减少树木
11:09
and burn烧伤 up dead fuels燃料.
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烧掉枯枝败叶。
11:11
We do this to systematically系统
reduce减少 them and keep them reduced减少.
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我们这么做是为了有计划
并持续地减少枯枝。
11:16
And what is that going to do?
194
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这么做有什么好处呢?
11:18
It's going to create创建 already-burned已经烧
patches补丁 on the landscape景观
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它能在森林中创造出
已经燃烧过的区块,
11:21
that will resist the flow of future未来 fires火灾.
196
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能够阻止未来火灾的蔓延。
11:24
We can combine结合 mechanical机械 thinning细化
with some of these treatments治疗
197
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我们可以将机械砍伐
跟上述方式相结合,
11:27
where it's appropriate适当 to do so,
198
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在合适的地方这么来操作,
还能获取一些商业价值,
11:29
and capture捕获 some commercial广告 value
199
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11:31
and perhaps也许 underwrite包销
some of these treatments治疗,
200
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也许能将这些方式外包出去,
11:34
especially特别 around urban城市的 areas.
201
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2549
尤其是在城市周边地区。
11:36
And the best最好 news新闻 of all
is that prescribed规定 burning燃烧 produces产生
202
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有计划焚烧最大的好处就是
11:40
so much less smoke抽烟 than wildfires野火 do.
203
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3656
它产生的烟比森林大火少多了。
11:43
It's not even close.
204
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根本没法比。
11:45
But there's a hitch拴住:
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但是有一点,
11:46
prescribed规定 burning燃烧 smoke抽烟 is currently目前
regulated调控 under air空气 quality质量 rules规则
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有计划焚烧产生的烟
受空气质量法规管制,
11:51
as an avoidable避免 nuisance滋扰.
207
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1935
是“可以避免的不当行为”。
11:54
But wildfire磷火 smoke抽烟?
208
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但是森林大火的烟呢?
11:56
It simply只是 gets得到 a pass通过.
209
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就没人管了。
12:00
Makes使 sense, doesn't it? (Laughs)
210
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是这个道理,对吧?
(笑声)
12:02
So you know what happens发生?
211
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结果怎么样?
我们的有计划焚烧进行得非常少,
12:04
We do far too little prescribed规定 burning燃烧,
212
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3247
12:07
and we continually不断 eat smoke抽烟
in the summers夏天
213
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3811
而我们在夏季要吸入大量
12:11
from megafiresmegafires.
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森林大火产生的浓烟。
12:12
We all need to work together一起
to get this changed.
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我们要共同行动,做出改变。
12:16
And finally最后, there's managed管理 wildfires野火.
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最后,还有可控的森林大火。
12:18
Instead代替 of putting all the fires火灾 out,
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我们不必将所有火灾都扑灭,
12:21
we need to put some of them back to work
218
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而要善加利用,
12:24
thinning细化 forests森林 and reducing减少 dead fuels燃料.
219
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降低森林密度,清除枯枝败叶。
12:28
We can herd放牧 them around the landscape景观
220
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我们要在森林中合适的地方
让火灾发生,
12:30
when it's appropriate适当 to do so
221
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12:32
to help restore恢复 the power功率
of the patchwork拼凑物.
222
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3903
重新发挥区块的作用。
12:38
And as you've probably大概 figured想通 out by now,
223
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到现在大家可能已经意识到了,
12:42
this is actually其实 a social社会 problem问题.
224
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这其实是一个社会问题。
它跟生态和气候有关,
12:44
It's got ecological生态
and climate气候 explanations说明,
225
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12:47
but it's a social社会 problem问题,
and it will take us humans人类 to solve解决 it.
226
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但其实是一个社会问题,
需要我们人类来解决它。
12:53
Public上市 support支持 for these tools工具 is poor较差的.
227
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对于刚刚提到的工具,
公共支持还不够。
对于有计划的焚烧和
受控制的森林大火支持还不够。
12:55
Prescribed订 明 burning燃烧 and managed管理 wildfires野火
are not well-supported很好的支持.
228
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12:59
We actually其实 all simply只是 want fires火灾
to magically神奇 go away
229
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我们都简单的希望,
火灾和它讨厌的浓烟一起
13:04
and take that pesky讨厌 smoke抽烟
with them, don't we?
230
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神奇地消失,不是吗?
13:09
But there is no future未来
without lots of fire and lots of smoke抽烟.
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然而未来不可能没有火灾和浓烟。
13:14
That option选项 is actually其实 not on the table.
232
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这是不可能完全避免的。
13:19
Until直到 we, the owners拥有者 of public上市 lands土地,
make it our high priority优先
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直到我们——公共土地的拥有者们——
13:24
to do something about
the current当前 situation情况,
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行动起来,努力改变现状,
13:28
we're going to experience经验
continued继续 losses损失 to megafiresmegafires.
235
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我们还会经历许多次
带来巨大损失的火灾。
13:31
So it's up to us.
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一切取决于我们。
13:33
We can spread传播 this message信息
to our lawmakers国会议员,
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我们可以让立法者明白这一点,
让他们帮助我们管理火灾,
13:36
folks乡亲 who can help us manage管理 our fires火灾
238
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13:40
and our forests森林.
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管理森林。
13:45
If we're unsuccessful不成功,
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如果我们失败的话,
13:49
where will you go to play
241
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2006
我们喜欢的地方都被烧毁了,
13:52
when your favorite喜爱 places地方
are burned black黑色?
242
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那我们还能去哪儿玩呢?
13:57
Where will you go
243
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我们去哪儿
13:59
to breathe呼吸 deep
244
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尽情地
14:02
and slow?
245
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深呼吸呢?
14:04
Thank you.
246
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谢谢大家。
14:05
(Applause掌声)
247
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(掌声)
Translated by Alvin Lee
Reviewed by Yang Tao

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Hessburg - Research ecologist
Paul Hessburg studies very large forest landscapes and what makes them tick.

Why you should listen

Paul Hessburg is a research ecologist who builds models of historical and modern era conditions in large forests and studies what factors make them behave as they do. In fact, much of his research is trying to decipher what is normal. In his research, Hessburg wants to know how the forests we inherited worked before we changed them. What did "natural" look like, and what specifically did we change about naturalness? What's still working well, and what could use a hand down?

Hessburg has spent most of his adult life (35 years) in his dream job. He works for the USDA, Forest Service, at the Pacific Northwest Research Station, where he is stationed at a field laboratory in Wenatchee, WA, US. That's located about five blocks just east of heaven, he says. He has a doctorate in Forest Pathology from Oregon State University, and he has been working in forestry for 40 years. He's also an Affiliate Professor at the University of Washington, Seattle, USA. 

In 2017, Hessburg was awarded his Research Station's Distinguished Scientist Award, and he will be awarded his Agencies' Distinguished Scientist Award for 2017, in February of 2018.

Over the last two years, Paul has traveled and spoken to over 100 western US communities about the new era of megafires and what we can do about it. As he says, "Unless we change a few of our forest and fire management habits in the US, we will lose many more beloved forests; some won’t recover in our lifetime."

More profile about the speaker
Paul Hessburg | Speaker | TED.com

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