ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Hessburg - Research ecologist
Paul Hessburg studies very large forest landscapes and what makes them tick.

Why you should listen

Paul Hessburg is a research ecologist who builds models of historical and modern era conditions in large forests and studies what factors make them behave as they do. In fact, much of his research is trying to decipher what is normal. In his research, Hessburg wants to know how the forests we inherited worked before we changed them. What did "natural" look like, and what specifically did we change about naturalness? What's still working well, and what could use a hand down?

Hessburg has spent most of his adult life (35 years) in his dream job. He works for the USDA, Forest Service, at the Pacific Northwest Research Station, where he is stationed at a field laboratory in Wenatchee, WA, US. That's located about five blocks just east of heaven, he says. He has a doctorate in Forest Pathology from Oregon State University, and he has been working in forestry for 40 years. He's also an Affiliate Professor at the University of Washington, Seattle, USA. 

In 2017, Hessburg was awarded his Research Station's Distinguished Scientist Award, and he will be awarded his Agencies' Distinguished Scientist Award for 2017, in February of 2018.

Over the last two years, Paul has traveled and spoken to over 100 western US communities about the new era of megafires and what we can do about it. As he says, "Unless we change a few of our forest and fire management habits in the US, we will lose many more beloved forests; some won’t recover in our lifetime."

More profile about the speaker
Paul Hessburg | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxBend

Paul Hessburg: Why wildfires have gotten worse -- and what we can do about it

保羅海斯柏格: 為什麼野火的狀況更糟了?我們要如何阻止?

Filmed:
1,282,030 views

美國西部燃起了不少超級大火,也就是延燒超過十萬英畝的大火──源自我們百年來誤導的管理,無意間大大地改變了森林樣貌,所產生的直接結果。我們能採取什麼步驟來避免進一步的毀滅呢?森林生態學家保羅海斯柏格帶我們面對一些關於野火的殘酷真相,並詳細說明如何能協助恢復地景的自然平衡。
- Research ecologist
Paul Hessburg studies very large forest landscapes and what makes them tick. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:13
As you've probably大概 noticed注意到,
0
1028
1703
你們可能已經注意到,
00:14
in recent最近 years年份, a lot
of western西 forests森林 have burned
1
2755
3177
近年來,有很多西部的森林
00:17
in large and destructive有害 wildfires野火.
2
5956
3612
遭到毀滅性的大型野火摧殘。
00:22
If you're like me --
3
10840
1223
如果你們和我一樣,
00:24
this western西 landscape景觀
is actually其實 why my family家庭 and I live生活 here.
4
12087
4512
像這樣的西部風景,就是我和
我的家人會住在這裡的原因。
00:29
And as a scientist科學家 and a father父親,
5
17558
2290
身為科學家和父親,
00:31
I've become成為 deeply concerned關心
about what we're leaving離開 behind背後
6
19872
4071
我非常關切我們會留下什麼給
00:35
for our kids孩子, and now my five grandkids孫子.
7
23967
3409
我們的孩子,和我現在的五個孫子。
00:40
In the US, an area that's larger
than the state of Oregon俄勒岡 has burned
8
28756
4873
在美國,僅在過去十年間,
被火燒毀的面積就比奧勒崗州還大,
00:45
in just the last 10 years年份,
9
33653
1800
00:48
and tens of thousands數千 of homes家園
have been destroyed銷毀.
10
36342
3850
數萬個家園因此被摧毀。
00:53
Acres英畝 burned and homes家園 destroyed銷毀
have steadily穩步 increased增加
11
41098
4764
過去三十年間,被燒毀的土地面積
和被摧毀的家園數目
00:57
over the last three decades幾十年,
12
45886
2959
一直穩定在增加,
01:02
and individual個人 fires火災 that are bigger
than 100,000 acres --
13
50328
5456
而面積大於十萬英畝的個別火災數目
01:07
they're actually其實 on the rise上升.
14
55808
1628
事實上是在增加的。
01:09
These are what we call "megafiresmegafires."
15
57460
2770
我們稱這些大火為「超級大火」。
01:13
MegafiresMegafires are the result結果 of the way
we've我們已經 managed管理 this western西 landscape景觀
16
61229
4770
超級大火發生的原因,
是我們過去 150 年來,
01:18
over the last 150 years年份
17
66023
2616
在穩定持續暖化的氣候下,
經營這塊西部地景的方式。
01:20
in a steadily穩步 warming變暖 climate氣候.
18
68663
2113
01:23
Much of the destruction毀壞
that we are currently目前 seeing眼看
19
71890
3686
我們目前看到的破壞,
其實大多數是本來可以避免的。
01:27
could actually其實 have been avoided避免.
20
75600
1935
01:30
I've spent花費 my entire整個 career事業
studying研究 these western西 landscapes景觀,
21
78616
3522
我的整個職涯都在
研究這些西部地景,
01:34
and the science科學 is pretty漂亮 clear明確:
22
82162
1968
科學是非常明確的:
01:36
if we don't change更改 a few少數
of our fire-management消防管理 habits習慣,
23
84911
4018
如果不改變我們
管理大火的一些習慣,
01:41
we're going to lose失去 many許多 more
of our beloved心愛 forests森林.
24
89996
3381
我們將會失去更多更多鍾愛的森林。
01:46
Some won't慣於 recover恢復 in our lifetime一生
25
94062
2691
有些是在我們一生中,
甚至我們孩子的一生中,
01:49
or my kids'孩子們 lifetime一生.
26
97411
2168
都無法復元的。
01:51
It's time we confront面對
some tough強硬 truths真理 about wildfires野火,
27
99603
4379
該是時候了,該來面對
關於野火的棘手真相了,
01:56
and come to understand理解 that we need
to learn學習 to better live生活 with them
28
104006
4107
要了解,我們必須學習
和它們共處得更好一些,
02:01
and change更改 how they come to our forests森林,
29
109162
2950
並改變它們如何來到我們的森林、
02:04
our homes家園
30
112829
1413
我們的家園、
02:07
and our communities社區.
31
115047
1544
我們的社區。
02:09
So why is this happening事件?
32
117654
1830
所以,為什麼會發生?
02:11
Well, that's what I want
to talk to you about today今天.
33
119508
2626
這就是今天我想和大家談的。
02:16
You see this forest森林?
34
124180
1628
看到這座森林了嗎?
02:20
Isn't it beautiful美麗?
35
128536
1625
它很美,不是嗎?
02:29
Well, the forests森林 that we see today今天
36
137877
2239
我們現今看到的森林,
02:33
look nothing like the forests森林
of 100 or 150 years年份 ago.
37
141108
5423
一點也不像 100
或 150 年前的森林。
02:39
Thankfully感激地, panoramic全景 photos相片
were taken採取 in the 1930s
38
147318
3663
謝天謝地,1930 年代時,
自西部山頂瞭望所
拍攝了數千個全景照片,
02:43
from thousands數千 of western西
mountaintop山頂 lookouts瞭望,
39
151005
3888
02:46
and they show顯示 a fair公平 approximation近似
40
154917
2439
靠這些照片,我們可以大略呈現出
02:49
of the forest森林 that we inherited遺傳.
41
157380
1844
我們所繼承的森林的樣貌。
02:52
The best最好 word to describe描述
these forests森林 of old is "patchy片狀."
42
160441
4117
要形容這些老森林,
最好的詞就是「拼湊成的」。
02:57
The historical歷史的 forest森林 landscape景觀
was this constantly經常 evolving進化 patchwork拼湊物
43
165303
3998
歷史的森林地景,
是不斷演化的拼湊之作,
03:01
of open打開 and closed關閉
canopy華蓋 forests森林 of all ages年齡,
44
169325
3759
由各種年齡,稀疏與鬱閉的
冠層森林拼湊而成,
03:05
and there was so much evidence證據 of fire.
45
173108
3492
有好多大火燒過的痕跡。
03:09
And most fires火災 were pretty漂亮 small
by today's今天的 standards標準.
46
177759
3708
用現今的標準來看,
大部份的火災規模都算很小。
03:14
And it's important重要 to understand理解
that this landscape景觀 was open打開,
47
182070
4008
重要的是要了解這是個稀疏的地景,
03:18
with meadows草甸 and open打開 canopy華蓋 forests森林,
48
186102
2522
有草地,也有稀疏冠層森林;
03:20
and it was the grasses of the meadows草甸
49
188648
2276
是草地上的草,
03:22
and in the grassy綠色的 understoriesunderstories
of the open打開 forest森林
50
190948
3472
以及稀疏森林中長滿草的林下層,
03:26
that many許多 of the wildfires野火 were carried攜帶的.
51
194444
2980
被許多野火燒了過去。
03:31
There were other forces軍隊 at work, too,
shaping成型 this historical歷史的 patchwork拼湊物:
52
199797
4062
還有其他的力量
形成這個歷史上的拼湊物,
03:35
for example, topography地形,
whether是否 a place地點 faces面孔 north or south
53
203883
3820
比如:地形學,地形朝南或朝北,
03:39
or it's on a ridge top最佳
or in a valley bottom底部;
54
207727
2698
是在山脊上或是在谷底;
03:42
elevation海拔, how far up the mountain it is;
55
210449
2845
海拔高度,在山上多高的地方;
03:45
and weather天氣, whether是否 a place地點
gets得到 a lot of snow and rain,
56
213318
4596
是否常常下雪或是下雨,
03:49
sunlight陽光 and warmth熱情.
57
217938
2048
是否有陽光且溫暖。
03:52
These things all worked工作 together一起
58
220010
3069
所有這些元素加在一起,
03:55
to shape形狀 the way the forest森林 grew成長.
59
223103
1903
造成森林成長的方式。
03:57
And the way the forest森林 grew成長
shaped成形 the way fire behaved
60
225974
5165
而森林成長的方式,
就會形成大火在地景上的行為方式。
04:03
on the landscape景觀.
61
231163
1348
04:05
There was crosstalk相聲
between之間 the patterns模式 and the processes流程.
62
233431
5249
在模式和過程之間互相干擾影響。
04:10
You can see the new dry forest森林.
63
238704
1897
如你所見,左側是新的乾燥森林。
04:12
Trees were open打開 grown長大的
and fairly相當 far apart距離.
64
240625
3202
樹木開放成長,且間距算是遠的。
04:15
Fires火災 were frequent頻繁 here,
and when they occurred發生,
65
243851
2445
大火常常在這裡發生,
發生時都不會太嚴重,
04:18
they weren't that severe嚴重,
66
246320
1578
04:19
while further進一步 up the mountain,
67
247922
1430
再往山上一點,
04:21
in the moist and the cold forests森林,
68
249376
2123
中間是潮濕且寒冷的森林,
04:23
trees樹木 were more densely密地 grown長大的
and fires火災 were less frequent頻繁,
69
251523
3238
樹木的密度比較高,
比較不常發生大火,
04:26
but when they occurred發生,
they were quite相當 a bit more severe嚴重.
70
254785
3318
但一旦發生大火,
通常會比較嚴重一些。
04:30
These different不同 forest森林 types類型,
the environments環境 that they grew成長 in
71
258127
3643
不同類型的森林、它們的生長環境,
04:33
and fire severity嚴重 --
they all worked工作 together一起
72
261794
3063
以及大火的猛烈程度,
通通作用在一起,
04:36
to shape形狀 this historical歷史的 patchwork拼湊物.
73
264881
2648
形成了這個歷史的拼湊之作。
04:40
And there was so much power功率
74
268429
3384
在這個拼湊之作當中,
有著非常大的力量。
04:43
in this patchwork拼湊物.
75
271837
1503
04:45
It provided提供 a natural自然 mechanism機制
76
273904
2527
它提供了一個自然機制,
04:48
to resist the spread傳播 of future未來 fires火災
across橫過 the landscape景觀.
77
276455
3549
來抵抗未來的大火,
不讓它們在地景上擴散。
04:53
Once一旦 a patch補丁 of forest森林 burned,
78
281002
2146
一旦森林其中一塊被燒掉,
04:55
it helped幫助 to prevent避免 the flow
of fire across橫過 the landscape景觀.
79
283172
3275
它能協助防止大火延燒至地景各處。
04:59
A way to think about it is,
80
287046
1491
可以把它看待成,
05:00
the burned patches補丁
helped幫助 the rest休息 of the forest森林
81
288561
4563
森林中被燒毀的那些部份,
能協助維持剩下的森林仍然是森林。
05:05
to be forest森林.
82
293148
2028
讓我們混合考量人類的因素。
05:08
Let's add humans人類 to the mix混合.
83
296677
1851
05:11
For 10,000 years年份, Native本地人 Americans美國人
lived生活 on this landscape景觀,
84
299144
3725
美國原住民在這地景上住了一萬年,
05:14
and they intentionally故意地 burned it -- a lot.
85
302893
3533
他們常常會刻意放火,
05:19
They used fire to burn燒傷 meadows草甸
and to thin certain某些 forests森林
86
307284
3892
用火燒草原,讓某些森林變得稀疏,
05:23
so they could grow增長 more food餐飲.
87
311200
2045
來種更多的食物。
05:25
They used fire to increase增加 graze輕擦
88
313269
3005
他們用火來增加牧草的量,
05:28
for the deer鹿 and the elk麋鹿
and the bison野牛 that they hunted獵殺.
89
316298
3836
供獵獲的鹿、麋和野牛食用。
05:32
And most importantly重要的, they figured想通 out
90
320158
2513
最重要的是
他們了解如果在春天和秋天放火,
05:34
if they burned in the spring彈簧 and the fall秋季,
91
322695
2626
05:37
they could avoid避免 the out-of-control外的控制
fires火災 of summer夏季.
92
325345
3539
就能避免夏天失控的大火。
05:41
European歐洲的 settlement沉降 -- it occurred發生
much later後來, in the mid-中-1800s,
93
329508
4484
很久之後,歐洲人
於十九世紀中期開始殖民,
05:46
and by the 1880s, livestock家畜
grazing放牧 was in high gear齒輪.
94
334016
4275
1880 年代到達家畜放牧的高點。
05:50
I mean, if you think about it,
the cattle黃牛 and the sheep ate the grasses
95
338315
3781
我的意思是,試想牛和羊要吃草,
05:54
which哪一個 had been the conveyer輸送帶 belt
for the historical歷史的 fires火災,
96
342120
4041
這些草地曾是史上火災的輸送帶,
05:58
and this prevented防止 once-frequent一旦頻繁 fires火災
from thinning細化 out trees樹木
97
346185
4094
使得以前頻繁的大火
不再能夠稀疏樹木、燒光枯木。
06:02
and burning燃燒 up dead wood.
98
350303
1621
06:04
Later後來 came來了 roads道路 and railroads鐵路,
and they acted行動 as potent有力的 firebreaks防火帶,
99
352634
5079
然後出現了道路和鐵路,
它們成了非常有效的防火道,
06:09
interrupting中斷 further進一步 the flow of fire
across橫過 this landscape景觀.
100
357737
3972
進一步阻斷大火延燒至地景各處。
06:13
And then something happened發生
which哪一個 caused造成 a sudden突然 pivot
101
361733
3860
接下來發生的事使社會突然轉變。
06:17
in our society社會.
102
365617
1421
06:19
In 1910, we had a huge巨大 wildfire磷火.
103
367489
4073
1910 年,有一場大野火,
06:23
It was the size尺寸
of the state of Connecticut康涅狄格.
104
371586
2716
大小和康乃迪克州一樣大。
06:27
We called it "the Big Burn燒傷."
105
375275
2640
我們稱之為「大火燒(Big Burn)」。
06:29
It stretched拉伸 from eastern Washington華盛頓
to western西 Montana蒙大拿,
106
377939
3949
它的範圍從華盛頓州的東邊
一路延伸到蒙大拿州的西邊,
06:33
and it burned, in a few少數 days,
three million百萬 acres,
107
381912
3683
幾天之內就燒毀了三百萬英畝的地,
06:37
devoured吞噬 several一些 towns城市,
and it killed殺害 87 people.
108
385619
4461
吞滅了數個小鎮,
造成 87 人死亡,
06:42
Most of them were firefighters消防員.
109
390104
1749
大部份是消防員。
06:45
Because of the Big Burn燒傷, wildfire磷火
became成為 public上市 enemy敵人 number one,
110
393178
3983
這次的大火燒使得野火
成了全民的頭號公敵,
06:49
and this would shape形狀 the way
that we would think about wildfire磷火
111
397185
3421
塑造我們社會在接下來百年間
06:52
in our society社會
112
400630
1281
對於野火的看法。
06:53
for the next下一個 hundred years年份.
113
401935
1831
06:56
Thereafter此後, the Forest森林 Service服務,
just five years年份 young年輕 at the time,
114
404880
3431
其後,當時成立才五年的林務局
被賦予重任,
07:00
was tasked任務 with the responsibility責任
of putting out all wildfires野火
115
408335
5132
要消滅公地上所有的野火,
07:05
on 193 million百萬 acres of public上市 lands土地,
116
413491
3542
多達 193 百萬英畝的面積。
07:09
and they took this responsibility責任
117
417057
1940
他們非常認真地看待這項責任,
07:11
very seriously認真地.
118
419021
1163
07:12
They developed發達 this unequaled無比
ability能力 to put fires火災 out,
119
420872
3950
發展出無與倫比的滅火能力,
07:16
and they put out 95 to 98 percent百分
120
424846
3252
每年 95% 至 98% 的全美國大火
07:20
of all fires火災 every一切 single year in the US.
121
428122
4974
被他們撲滅掉。
07:25
And from this point on,
it was now fire suppression抑制
122
433120
3402
從此之後,
撲滅火災取代了野火,
07:29
and not wildfires野火
123
437387
1530
成為我們森林成形的主要因素。
07:30
that would become成為 a prime主要
shaper整形 of our forests森林.
124
438941
3986
07:35
After World世界 War戰爭 IIII, timber木材 harvesting收穫
got going in the west西,
125
443943
3500
二次世界大戰後,
西部開始伐木,
07:39
and the logging記錄 removed去除
the large and the old trees樹木.
126
447467
3123
砍伐原木造成大樹和老樹消失。
07:42
These were survivors倖存者
of centuries百年 of wildfires野火.
127
450614
5281
它們原是百年來野火下的倖存者。
07:47
And the forest森林 filled填充 in.
128
455919
1932
森林接著填補上來,
07:49
Thin-barked薄樹皮, fire-sensitive火敏感
small trees樹木 filled填充 in the gaps空白,
129
457875
4921
對火敏感的薄皮小樹木補滿了空隙,
07:54
and our forests森林 became成為 dense稠密,
with trees樹木 so layered分層 and close together一起
130
462820
5946
我們的森林變成高密度,
樹木近近疊在一起,會彼此碰觸;
08:00
that they were touching接觸 each other.
131
468790
1982
08:03
So fires火災 were unintentionally無意中 blocked受阻
by roads道路 and railroads鐵路,
132
471357
3918
道路和鐵路無意間阻斷火的蔓延;
08:07
the cattle黃牛 and sheep ate the grass,
133
475299
2435
牛和羊吃草;
08:09
then along沿 comes fire suppression抑制
and logging記錄, removing去除 the big trees樹木,
134
477758
4320
接著而來的人為滅火、
伐木和砍掉大樹,
你們可知道發生了什麼事?
08:14
and you know what happened發生?
135
482102
1325
08:15
All these factors因素 worked工作 together一起
136
483451
2254
所有這些因素一起作用,
08:17
to allow允許 the forest森林 to fill in,
137
485729
2885
森林填補了間隙,
08:20
creating創建 what I call
the current當前 epidemic疫情 of trees樹木.
138
488638
3979
造成我稱為「目前樹木氾濫的疫情」。
08:25
(Laughter笑聲)
139
493163
1983
(笑聲)
08:28
Go figure數字.
140
496678
1176
去想想吧。
08:29
(Laughter笑聲)
141
497878
1047
(笑聲)
08:30
More trees樹木 than the landscape景觀 can support支持.
142
498949
3596
樹木的數量遠超過
地景能夠支持的量。
08:35
So when you compare比較 what forests森林
looked看著 like 100 years年份 ago and today今天,
143
503506
4760
因此,比較百年前和現今的森林,
08:40
the change更改 is actually其實 remarkable卓越.
144
508290
2486
改變其實很驚人。
08:42
Notice注意 how the patchwork拼湊物 has filled填充 in.
145
510800
2410
注意看拼湊之作是怎麼被填補的。
08:45
Dry south slopes連續下坡 --
146
513234
1548
原本乾燥的南面山坡
08:46
they're now covered覆蓋 with trees樹木.
147
514806
2293
現在被樹木覆蓋滿了。
08:49
A patchwork拼湊物 that was once一旦
sculptured雕塑 by mostly大多 small
148
517843
2979
曾經主要由中小型的火災
所塑成的拼湊之作
08:52
and sort分類 of medium-sized中型 fires火災
149
520846
1758
08:54
has filled填充 in.
150
522628
1493
已經被填補滿了。
08:56
Do you see the blanket of trees樹木?
151
524145
1988
看到樹木的覆蓋層了嗎?
08:58
After just 150 years年份,
152
526679
2271
僅僅經過 150 年,
09:00
we have a dense稠密 carpet地毯 of forest森林.
153
528974
2557
已經有了一片高密度的森林。
09:03
But there's more.
154
531555
1733
還不只如此。
09:05
Because trees樹木 are growing生長
so close together一起,
155
533312
2955
因為樹木生長的距離非常近,
09:08
and because tree species種類,
tree sizes大小 and ages年齡
156
536291
3328
因為長在大片區域中的樹木,
09:11
are so similar類似 across橫過 large areas,
157
539643
3647
種類、尺寸、年齡都太相似,
09:15
fires火災 not only move移動 easily容易
from acre英畝 to acre英畝,
158
543314
3027
火勢不但很容易從
一英畝延燒到下一英畝,
09:18
but now, so do diseases疾病
and insect昆蟲 outbreaks爆發,
159
546365
4097
發生的疾病和昆蟲疫情
也一樣容易傳播,
09:23
which哪一個 are killing謀殺 or reducing減少 the vitality活力
160
551896
3328
因此造成現在的森林
09:27
of really large sections部分 of forest森林 now.
161
555248
2797
大片區域地死亡或衰弱。
09:30
And after a century世紀 without fire,
162
558488
2859
一整個世紀沒有火災之後,
09:33
dead branches分支機構 and downed擊落 trees樹木
on the forest森林 floor地板,
163
561371
3579
在森林地面上的枯枝和倒樹
09:36
they're at powder-keg粉桶 levels水平.
164
564974
2027
處在一觸即發的層級。
09:39
What's more, our summers夏天
are getting得到 hotter
165
567956
2625
此外,夏天越來越熱,
09:42
and they're getting得到 drier乾燥劑
166
570605
2155
越來越乾燥,
09:44
and they're getting得到 windier多風.
167
572784
1822
風也越來越大 。
09:47
And the fire season季節 is now
40 to 80 days longer each year.
168
575163
5493
如今每年的火季長了 40~80 天。
09:53
Because of this,
climatologists氣象學 are predicting預測
169
581168
2500
因此,氣候學家預測,
09:55
that the area burned since以來 2000
170
583692
3220
自 2000 年起燒掉區域的面積,
09:58
will double or triple三倍
171
586936
2785
在接下來三十年間會
變為兩倍或三倍。
10:01
in the next下一個 three decades幾十年.
172
589745
1904
10:05
And we're building建造 houses房屋
in the middle中間 of this.
173
593015
3374
而我們在這其中蓋房子。
10:08
Two recently最近 published發表 studies學習 tell us
174
596413
2109
兩份近期發佈的研究告訴我們,
10:10
that more than 60 percent百分
of all new housing住房 starts啟動 are being存在 built內置
175
598546
4537
超過 60% 的新住房
被建築在這種可燃且危險的地方。
10:15
in this flammable易燃的 and dangerous危險 mess食堂.
176
603107
2618
10:19
So when we do get a fire,
177
607145
1842
所以一旦發生火災,
10:21
large areas can literally按照字面 go up in smoke抽煙.
178
609722
4050
會有大片的面積化為灰燼。
10:28
How do you feel now
179
616363
1585
現在你們對於我一開始
10:31
about the forest森林 image圖片
180
619580
1691
讓各位看的那張森林圖片
10:34
that I first showed顯示 you?
181
622070
1679
感覺如何?
10:35
It scares恐慌 the heck赫克 out of me.
182
623773
1949
它把我嚇壞了。
10:39
So what do we do?
183
627729
1390
我們應該怎麼做?
10:42
We need to restore恢復
the power功率 of the patchwork拼湊物.
184
630010
3510
我們得要恢復拼湊之作的力量。
10:45
We need to put the right kind of fire
185
633544
3149
我們得要把「對」的那種火
10:48
back into the system系統 again.
186
636717
1902
再次放回到系統當中。
10:50
It's how we can resize調整
the severity嚴重 of many許多 of our future未來 fires火災.
187
638643
6162
這種方式能讓我們改變
許多未來火災的嚴重程度。
10:57
And the silver lining is
that we have tools工具
188
645277
2469
讓人感到欣慰的是
我們有工具,
10:59
and we have know-how知識 to do this.
189
647770
2474
也有該怎麼做的實際知識。
11:02
Let's look at some of the tools工具.
190
650268
2139
咱們來看看其中一些工具。
11:04
We can use prescribed規定 burning燃燒
to intentionally故意地 thin out trees樹木
191
652431
4767
我們可以用計畫性火燒(控制燒除)
來刻意讓樹木變稀疏,
11:09
and burn燒傷 up dead fuels燃料.
192
657222
1826
並燒盡可燃物。
11:11
We do this to systematically系統
reduce減少 them and keep them reduced減少.
193
659740
4089
這麼做可以系統性地減少
並保持它們於少量。
11:16
And what is that going to do?
194
664785
1382
那會有什麼結果?
11:18
It's going to create創建 already-burned已經燒
patches補丁 on the landscape景觀
195
666191
2874
那會在地景上創造出
已經燒光的區塊,
11:21
that will resist the flow of future未來 fires火災.
196
669089
2872
能夠防止未來大火的竄燒。
11:24
We can combine結合 mechanical機械 thinning細化
with some of these treatments治療
197
672389
3312
我們可以把機械式的稀疏做法
和這類處理方式結合,
11:27
where it's appropriate適當 to do so,
198
675725
1691
在適當的情況下這麼做,
11:29
and capture捕獲 some commercial廣告 value
199
677440
1774
並獲得一些商業價值,
11:31
and perhaps也許 underwrite包銷
some of these treatments治療,
200
679238
2931
也許還能承保這類處理方式,
11:34
especially特別 around urban城市的 areas.
201
682193
2549
特別是在都市地區。
11:36
And the best最好 news新聞 of all
is that prescribed規定 burning燃燒 produces產生
202
684766
3231
最好的消息是計畫性火燒所產生的煙
11:40
so much less smoke抽煙 than wildfires野火 do.
203
688021
3656
遠遠少於野火產生的煙。
11:43
It's not even close.
204
691701
1349
差距很大。
11:45
But there's a hitch拴住:
205
693074
1227
但有個問題:
11:46
prescribed規定 burning燃燒 smoke抽煙 is currently目前
regulated調控 under air空氣 quality質量 rules規則
206
694962
4989
依目前空氣品質規定的規範,
計畫性火燒的煙是可避免的妨礙行為。
11:51
as an avoidable避免 nuisance滋擾.
207
699975
1935
11:54
But wildfire磷火 smoke抽煙?
208
702557
1681
但野火的煙呢?
11:56
It simply只是 gets得到 a pass通過.
209
704262
2042
它沒被規範。
12:00
Makes使 sense, doesn't it? (Laughs)
210
708153
2565
合理嗎?(笑聲)
12:02
So you know what happens發生?
211
710742
1275
所以會發生什麼事?
12:04
We do far too little prescribed規定 burning燃燒,
212
712041
3247
我們計畫性的火燒做得太少了,
12:07
and we continually不斷 eat smoke抽煙
in the summers夏天
213
715312
3811
因而使我們在夏天
持續吸入來自超級大火的煙。
12:11
from megafiresmegafires.
214
719147
1401
12:12
We all need to work together一起
to get this changed.
215
720572
3665
我們得要同心協力來改變這一點。
12:16
And finally最後, there's managed管理 wildfires野火.
216
724711
1961
最後,還有管制野火。
12:18
Instead代替 of putting all the fires火災 out,
217
726696
2627
不要撲滅所有的野火,
12:21
we need to put some of them back to work
218
729903
2529
得要讓其中一些繼續燒下去,
12:24
thinning細化 forests森林 and reducing減少 dead fuels燃料.
219
732456
2991
讓森林變稀疏,減少乾枯的可燃物。
12:28
We can herd放牧 them around the landscape景觀
220
736005
2667
我們可以在地景上「放牧」野火,
12:30
when it's appropriate適當 to do so
221
738696
1913
在適當的情況下這樣做,
12:32
to help restore恢復 the power功率
of the patchwork拼湊物.
222
740633
3903
就能協助恢復拼湊之作的力量。
12:38
And as you've probably大概 figured想通 out by now,
223
746623
3739
現在你們可能已經想通了,
12:42
this is actually其實 a social社會 problem問題.
224
750386
2206
這其實是個社會問題。
12:44
It's got ecological生態
and climate氣候 explanations說明,
225
752616
2983
它的確有生態上和氣候上的解釋,
12:47
but it's a social社會 problem問題,
and it will take us humans人類 to solve解決 it.
226
755623
4696
但它是個社會問題,
需要我們人類來解決。
12:53
Public上市 support支持 for these tools工具 is poor較差的.
227
761026
2432
沒有多少大眾支持這些工具。
12:55
Prescribed規定 burning燃燒 and managed管理 wildfires野火
are not well-supported很好的支持.
228
763482
3682
計畫性火燒和管制野火
並沒有受到很好的支持。
12:59
We actually其實 all simply只是 want fires火災
to magically神奇 go away
229
767188
4648
事實上我們只想要大火
神奇地自己熄滅掉,
13:04
and take that pesky討厭 smoke抽煙
with them, don't we?
230
772455
3215
也一併帶走討厭的煙,對吧?
13:09
But there is no future未來
without lots of fire and lots of smoke抽煙.
231
777122
5028
但未來不可能沒有
多場火災和很多的煙。
13:14
That option選項 is actually其實 not on the table.
232
782174
2579
其實桌面上並沒有這選項。
13:19
Until直到 we, the owners擁有者 of public上市 lands土地,
make it our high priority優先
233
787038
5181
直到公共土地的所有者
將這問題列為優先,
13:24
to do something about
the current當前 situation情況,
234
792243
2713
針對目前的情況行動,
13:28
we're going to experience經驗
continued繼續 losses損失 to megafiresmegafires.
235
796002
3621
不然我們就會繼續經歷
超級大火造成的損失。
13:31
So it's up to us.
236
799647
1517
所以,決定權在我們的手上。
13:33
We can spread傳播 this message信息
to our lawmakers國會議員,
237
801569
2719
我們可以把這訊息傳給立法者,
13:36
folks鄉親 who can help us manage管理 our fires火災
238
804312
3439
給那些能夠協助我們
管制大火和森林的人。
13:40
and our forests森林.
239
808265
1872
13:45
If we're unsuccessful不成功,
240
813680
1822
如果我們沒能成功,
13:49
where will you go to play
241
817190
2006
當你最喜歡的地方被燒到焦黑時,
你要到哪裡去玩?
13:52
when your favorite喜愛 places地方
are burned black黑色?
242
820140
2662
13:57
Where will you go
243
825096
1434
你要去哪裡
13:59
to breathe呼吸 deep
244
827298
1464
緩慢地深呼吸?
14:02
and slow?
245
830052
1323
14:04
Thank you.
246
832080
1174
謝謝。
14:05
(Applause掌聲)
247
833278
4011
(掌聲)
Translated by Lilian Chiu
Reviewed by Helen Chang

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Hessburg - Research ecologist
Paul Hessburg studies very large forest landscapes and what makes them tick.

Why you should listen

Paul Hessburg is a research ecologist who builds models of historical and modern era conditions in large forests and studies what factors make them behave as they do. In fact, much of his research is trying to decipher what is normal. In his research, Hessburg wants to know how the forests we inherited worked before we changed them. What did "natural" look like, and what specifically did we change about naturalness? What's still working well, and what could use a hand down?

Hessburg has spent most of his adult life (35 years) in his dream job. He works for the USDA, Forest Service, at the Pacific Northwest Research Station, where he is stationed at a field laboratory in Wenatchee, WA, US. That's located about five blocks just east of heaven, he says. He has a doctorate in Forest Pathology from Oregon State University, and he has been working in forestry for 40 years. He's also an Affiliate Professor at the University of Washington, Seattle, USA. 

In 2017, Hessburg was awarded his Research Station's Distinguished Scientist Award, and he will be awarded his Agencies' Distinguished Scientist Award for 2017, in February of 2018.

Over the last two years, Paul has traveled and spoken to over 100 western US communities about the new era of megafires and what we can do about it. As he says, "Unless we change a few of our forest and fire management habits in the US, we will lose many more beloved forests; some won’t recover in our lifetime."

More profile about the speaker
Paul Hessburg | Speaker | TED.com

Data provided by TED.

This site was created in May 2015 and the last update was on January 12, 2020. It will no longer be updated.

We are currently creating a new site called "eng.lish.video" and would be grateful if you could access it.

If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to write comments in your language on the contact form.

Privacy Policy

Developer's Blog

Buy Me A Coffee