TED2005
James Surowiecki: The power and the danger of online crowds
James Surowiecki - 社会媒体的转折点
Filmed:
Readability: 4
510,081 views
James Surowiecki一直见血的指出了社会媒体与其他新闻报道媒体发挥同等作用的时候：2005年的海啸时，youtube视频，博客，即时信息和短信传播了新闻，也保存了这场悲剧中感人的个人故事。
James Surowiecki - Finance journalist
James Surowiecki argues that people, when we act en masse, are smarter than we think. He's the author of The Wisdom of Crowds and writes about finance for the New Yorker. Full bio
James Surowiecki argues that people, when we act en masse, are smarter than we think. He's the author of The Wisdom of Crowds and writes about finance for the New Yorker. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:19
This was in an area called Wellawatta, a prime residential area in Colombo.
0
1000
4000
这个叫做Wellawatta的地方，是科伦坡的高级住宅区。
00:23
We stood on the railroad tracks
1
5000
2000
我们站在铁轨上
00:25
that ran between my friend's house and the beach.
2
7000
2000
它从我朋友的房子和海滩之间穿过。
00:28
The tracks are elevated about eight feet from the waterline normally,
3
10000
3000
一般情况下铁轨会高于水位8英尺，
00:31
but at that point the water had receded
4
13000
2000
但是在那时候水已经退到
00:33
to a level three or four feet below normal.
5
15000
3000
正常水位的3或者4英尺之下的位置了。
00:36
I'd never seen the reef here before.
6
18000
2000
我以前从来没有在那看到过珊瑚。
00:38
There were fish caught in rock pools left behind by the receding water.
7
20000
4000
潮水退后，那儿会有一些鱼被困在石头围成的小池子里。
00:43
Some children jumped down and ran to the rock pools with bags.
8
25000
4000
一些孩子们拿着口袋跳下去，跑向那些小池子。
00:47
They were trying to catch fish.
9
29000
2000
他们想抓鱼。
00:49
No one realized that this was a very bad idea.
10
31000
3000
没有人意识到这是个非常糟糕的主意。
00:52
The people on the tracks just continued to watch them.
11
34000
3000
站在铁轨上的人只是看着这些孩子们。
00:55
I turned around to check on my friend's house.
12
37000
3000
我回过头去看我朋友的房子。
00:58
Then someone on the tracks screamed.
13
40000
2000
然后站在铁轨上的一些人开始尖叫。
01:00
Before I could turn around, everyone on the tracks was screaming and running.
14
42000
4000
我还没有回过头来，在铁轨上的每个人都开始尖叫，奔跑。
01:04
The water had started coming back. It was foaming over the reef.
15
46000
4000
水已经回来了。在珊瑚上泛起水沫。
01:08
The children managed to run back onto the tracks.
16
50000
4000
孩子们跑回了铁轨上。
01:12
No one was lost there. But the water continued to climb.
17
54000
4000
没有人落下。但是水一直在涨。
01:16
In about two minutes, it had reached the level of the railroad tracks
18
58000
3000
在两分钟之内，水已经漫到铁轨之上
01:19
and was coming over it. We had run about 100 meters by this time.
19
61000
4000
即将把铁轨淹没。到那时我们跑了100多米远。
01:23
It continued to rise.
20
65000
2000
我继续踮起了脚看。
01:25
I saw an old man standing at his gate, knee-deep in water, refusing to move.
21
67000
5000
我看到一个老人站在他家门前齐膝深的水中，不愿离开。
01:30
He said he'd lived his whole life there by the beach,
22
72000
3000
他说他在海滩边已经住了一辈子，
01:33
and that he would rather die there than run.
23
75000
3000
他宁愿死也不会逃跑。
01:36
A boy broke away from his mother to run back into his house
24
78000
3000
一个小男孩挣脱了妈妈，跑回了他的房间去找他的狗。
01:39
to get his dog, who was apparently afraid.
25
81000
3000
显然，狗狗也很害怕。
01:42
An old lady, crying, was carried out of her house and up the road by her son.
26
84000
5000
一个老妇人，一边哭一边被她儿子抱出了房子带到了公路上。
01:47
The slum built on the railroad reservation
27
89000
3000
建在海和铁路之间的铁路保留区上的贫民窝棚
01:50
between the sea and the railroad tracks was completely swept away.
28
92000
4000
已经完全被冲走。
01:54
Since this was a high-risk location, the police had warned the residents,
29
96000
3000
由于这是一个高危区域，警察曾警告过那些居民
01:57
and no one was there when the water rose.
30
99000
2000
所以水位上升的时候没人在那。
01:59
But they had not had any time to evacuate any belongings.
31
101000
4000
但是他们没有时间去抢救财物。
02:03
For hours afterwards, the sea was strewn with bits of wood for miles around --
32
105000
4000
几个小时之后，数英里的海面上布满了木头的碎片
02:07
all of this was from the houses in the slum.
33
109000
3000
这些都来自于贫民窝棚。
02:10
When the waters subsided, it was as if it had never existed.
34
112000
4000
当潮水平息之后，一切似乎从来没有发生过。
02:16
This may seem hard to believe --
35
118000
2000
这可能听起来难以置信，
02:18
unless you've been reading lots and lots of news reports --
36
120000
2000
除非你已经读过了许许多多这样的新闻报道
02:20
but in many places, after the tsunami, villagers were still terrified.
37
122000
4000
但是在很多地方，海啸之后，村民们仍然感觉恐惧。
02:24
When what was a tranquil sea swallows up people, homes
38
126000
3000
当曾经平静的海面开始无情并毫无警告的吞没人们，家园
02:27
and long-tail boats -- mercilessly, without warning --
39
129000
2000
和那些长尾船时，
02:29
and no one can tell you anything reliable about whether another one is coming,
40
131000
4000
对于下一个海啸是不是会来，没有人能够给你可靠的消息，
02:33
I'm not sure you'd want to calm down either.
41
135000
3000
我不确定你想要冷静下来。
02:36
One of the scariest things about the tsunami
42
138000
2000
海啸最令人害怕的东西之一
02:38
that I've not seen mentioned is the complete lack of information.
43
140000
4000
是信息的极度缺乏。
02:42
This may seem minor, but it is terrifying to hear rumor after rumor
44
144000
3000
这似乎是小事，但听到一个接着一个的谣言，让人感到极度恐惧，
02:45
after rumor that another tidal wave, bigger than the last,
45
147000
3000
这些谣言说下一次海啸会比上一次更大，
02:48
will be coming at exactly 1 p.m., or perhaps tonight, or perhaps ...
46
150000
5000
会在下午1点来，或者是今晚，或者是。。。
02:53
You don't even know if it is safe to go back down to the water,
47
155000
3000
你根本不知道回到水里搭船去医院
02:56
to catch a boat to the hospital.
48
158000
2000
是不是安全。
02:58
We think that Phi Phi hospital was destroyed.
49
160000
2000
我们认为Phi Phi医院已经被毁了。
03:00
We think this boat is going to Phuket hospital,
50
162000
3000
我们认为这艘船将要去的是普吉医院，
03:03
but if it's too dangerous to land at its pier,
51
165000
2000
但是如果在码头靠岸太危险的话，
03:05
then perhaps it will go to Krabi instead, which is more protected.
52
167000
4000
也许就会去Krabi医院，一个更安全的地方。
03:09
We don't think another wave is coming right away.
53
171000
3000
我们并不认为下一次波浪马上就会来。
03:12
At the Phi Phi Hill Resort,
54
174000
2000
在Phi Phi山度假村，
03:14
I was tucked into the corner furthest away from the television,
55
176000
3000
我被挤到了离电视机最远的角落里，
03:17
but I strained to listen for information.
56
179000
2000
但是我一直在强迫自己听这些消息。
03:19
They reported that there was an 8.5 magnitude earthquake in Sumatra,
57
181000
3000
他们报道说在苏门答腊发生了8.5级的地震，
03:22
which triggered the massive tsunami.
58
184000
2000
触发了这次大海啸。
03:24
Having this news was comforting in some small way
59
186000
2000
听到这则消息稍稍有点安慰，
03:26
to understand what had just happened to us.
60
188000
2000
至少明白了刚才究竟发生了什么。
03:28
However, the report focused on what had already occurred
61
190000
3000
然而，报道更多关注的是那些已经发生的
03:31
and offered no information on what to expect now.
62
193000
3000
并没有提供任何有关于还会发生什么的信息。
03:34
In general, everything was merely hearsay and rumor,
63
196000
3000
大体上说，所有的都仅仅是道听途说或是谣言，
03:37
and not a single person I spoke to for over 36 hours
64
199000
3000
在过去的36个小时中，我说过话的人中，没有一个人
03:40
knew anything with any certainty.
65
202000
3000
确定的知道些什么。
03:43
Those were two accounts of the Asian tsunami from two Internet blogs
66
205000
6000
这是两篇从互络博客中选出的有关亚洲海啸的的博文
03:49
that essentially sprang up after it occurred.
67
211000
3000
而这些博客也是在海啸发生之后如雨后春笋般冒出来。
03:52
I'm now going to show you two video segments from the tsunami
68
214000
5000
我将要给你们看了两个有关海啸的视频片段
03:57
that also were shown on blogs.
69
219000
2000
而他们也是来自于博客。
03:59
I should warn you, they're pretty powerful.
70
221000
2000
我必须提醒你们，这些视频很有冲击力。
04:01
One from Thailand, and the second one from Phuket as well.
71
223000
3000
一个来自于泰国，第二个来自于普吉，
04:05
(Screaming)
72
227000
9000
（尖叫声）
04:19
Voice 1: It's coming in. It's coming again.
73
241000
3000
声音1：它进来了。它又回来了。
04:22
Voice 2: It's coming again?
74
244000
2000
声音2：它又回来了？
04:24
Voice 1: Yeah. It's coming again.
75
246000
2000
声音1：是的。它又回来了。
04:26
Voice 2: Come get inside here.
76
248000
4000
声音2：[不明]
04:30
Voice 1: It's coming again. Voice 2: New wave?
77
252000
2000
声音1：它又回来了。新潮水。
04:35
Voice 1: It's coming again. New wave!
78
257000
2000
它又回来了。
04:40
[Unclear]
79
262000
3000
[不明]
04:44
(Screaming)
80
266000
20000
（尖叫声）
05:05
They called me out here.
81
287000
2000
他们叫我从这出去。
05:21
James Surowiecki: Phew. Those were both on this site: waveofdestruction.org.
82
303000
5000
（叹气）这些视频都来自于这个网址：Waveofdestruction.org。
05:27
In the world of blogs, there's going to be before the tsunami and after the tsunami,
83
309000
4000
在博客世界里，这些将在海啸之前以及海啸之后发生，
05:31
because one of the things that happened in the wake of the tsunami was that,
84
313000
4000
因为在海啸刚刚发生之时，有一个事情是这样的，
05:35
although initially -- that is, in that first day --
85
317000
2000
虽然是最开始 - 或者说，就在第一天 -
05:37
there was actually a kind of dearth of live reporting, there was a dearth of live video
86
319000
4000
现场报道实际上在某种程度上说是十分缺乏的，现场视频也是十分缺乏的 -
05:41
and some people complained about this.
87
323000
2000
并且一些人还因此抱怨。
05:43
They said, "The blogsters let us down."
88
325000
3000
他们说，博客作者让我们失望了。
05:46
What became very clear was that,
89
328000
2000
很清楚的是，
05:48
within a few days, the outpouring of information was immense,
90
330000
5000
过了几天，输出的信息量是巨大的，
05:53
and we got a complete and powerful picture of what had happened
91
335000
5000
而且我们获得了一个完整并且冲击力十足的，有关于所发生事件的全景画面
05:58
in a way that we never had been able to get before.
92
340000
3000
以一种我们以往不可能获得的方式表达出来。
06:01
And what you had was a group of essentially unorganized, unconnected
93
343000
3000
一群根本上无组织，无联系
06:04
writers, video bloggers, etc., who were able to come up with
94
346000
5000
的作者，视频博主，以及其他人
06:09
a collective portrait of a disaster that gave us a much better sense
95
351000
4000
对海啸灾难进行了全面的描述，他们让我们得到了比主流媒体
06:13
of what it was like to actually be there than the mainstream media could give us.
96
355000
5000
更多的信息，让我们得到了亲历现场的感受。
06:18
And so in some ways the tsunami can be seen as a sort of seminal moment,
97
360000
4000
从一些方面来看，这次海啸能够看成一次创新性的时刻，
06:22
a moment in which the blogosphere came, to a certain degree, of age.
98
364000
4000
一个博客世界达到某种境界的时刻。
06:28
Now, I'm going to move now from this kind of --
99
370000
2000
现在，我们将移开现在这种
06:30
the sublime in the traditional sense of the word,
100
372000
2000
传统语义下的高尚 -
06:32
that is to say, awe-inspiring, terrifying -- to the somewhat more mundane.
101
374000
5000
也就是说非常好，激动人心 - 来到世俗世界。
06:37
Because when we think about blogs,
102
379000
2000
我们在思考博客的时候，
06:39
I think for most of us who are concerned about them,
103
381000
3000
我想对于大多数关心他们的人，
06:42
we're primarily concerned with things like politics, technology, etc.
104
384000
5000
我们主要关注的是政治，科技以及其他，
06:47
And I want to ask three questions in this talk,
105
389000
2000
这样，我想要在剩下的10分钟的演讲里
06:49
in the 10 minutes that remain, about the blogosphere.
106
391000
3000
问3个有关于博客世界的问题。
06:53
The first one is, What does it tell us about our ideas,
107
395000
3000
第一个问题是，关于我们的观念它究竟告诉了我们些什么，
06:56
about what motivates people to do things?
108
398000
2000
是什么驱使着人们去做事情？
06:58
The second is, Do blogs genuinely have the possibility
109
400000
4000
第二个问题是，博客真正有这样的可能性
07:02
of accessing a kind of collective intelligence
110
404000
4000
能够获取一种之前从未被开发出来的
07:06
that has previously remained, for the most part, untapped?
111
408000
3000
集体的智慧？
07:09
And then the third part is, What are the potential problems,
112
411000
4000
第三部分是，潜在的问题是什么，
07:13
or the dark side of blogs as we know them?
113
415000
4000
或者说博客的黑暗面是什么？
07:17
OK, the first question:
114
419000
2000
好，第一个问题：
07:19
What do they tell us about why people do things?
115
421000
2000
对于人们为什么做事情，它们告诉了我们什么？
07:21
One of the fascinating things about the blogosphere specifically,
116
423000
3000
博客世界令人着迷的事情中一个
07:24
and, of course, the Internet more generally --
117
426000
3000
或者说互联网中 -
07:27
and it's going to seem like a very obvious point,
118
429000
2000
看起来十分显而易见，
07:29
but I think it is an important one to think about --
119
431000
2000
但是我认为这是一个十分重要需要思考的事情 是-
07:31
is that the people who are generating these enormous reams of content
120
433000
4000
这些创造这些无数内容的人们
07:35
every day, who are spending enormous amounts of time organizing,
121
437000
5000
每天都在花无数的时间来整理
07:40
linking, commenting on the substance of the Internet,
122
442000
3000
链接，评论存在于互联网上的事物，
07:43
are doing so primarily for free.
123
445000
3000
并且绝大部分都是免费在做这个事情。
07:46
They are not getting paid for it in any way other than in the attention and,
124
448000
4000
他们不会获得报酬，除了受到关注，
07:50
to some extent, the reputational capital that they gain from doing a good job.
125
452000
5000
还有自己做得出色所得到的名声资本。
07:55
And this is -- at least, to a traditional economist -- somewhat remarkable,
126
457000
5000
对于传统的经济学家来说，这些都是了不起的事情，
08:00
because the traditional account of economic man would say that,
127
462000
4000
因为老派的经济学人会说，
08:04
basically, you do things for a concrete reward, primarily financial.
128
466000
5000
你知道，基本上，你做事情是为了获得实在的奖励，而绝大部分是金钱奖励。
08:09
But instead, what we're finding on the Internet --
129
471000
3000
与之对比的是，我们在互联网上发现的 -
08:12
and one of the great geniuses of it -- is that people have found a way
130
474000
4000
并且其中最伟大之处是 - 人们找到了某种方法
08:16
to work together without any money involved at all.
131
478000
3000
完全不为了钱而在一起工作。
08:19
They have come up with, in a sense, a different method for organizing activity.
132
481000
5000
他们找到了一种，不同的活动组织办法。
08:24
The Yale Law professor Yochai Benkler, in an essay called "Coase's Penguin,"
133
486000
5000
来自于耶鲁法学院的Yochai Benkler教授在一篇论文中称这个为“科斯的企鹅，”
08:29
talks about this open-source model, which we're familiar with from Linux,
134
491000
4000
关于这个的讲话，一种我们从Linux上熟悉的开源模型，
08:33
as being potentially applicable in a whole host of situations.
135
495000
3000
在各种情况下都有被应用的可能。
08:36
And, you know, if you think about this with the tsunami,
136
498000
2000
并且，你知道，如果你仔细想想这一次海啸，
08:38
what you have is essentially a kind of an army of local journalists,
137
500000
4000
你所拥有基本上是无数的“基层记者”
08:42
who are producing enormous amounts of material
138
504000
3000
他们制作着巨量的材料
08:45
for no reason other than to tell their stories.
139
507000
2000
为的是讲述他们的故事而不是为了钱
08:47
That's a very powerful idea, and it's a very powerful reality.
140
509000
4000
那是一个非常棒的主意，并且它有很强的现实操作性。
08:51
And it's one that offers really interesting possibilities
141
513000
2000
并且它是一个能够创造很多有趣的可能性的方法
08:53
for organizing a whole host of activities down the road.
142
515000
6000
在未来来组织很多活动。
08:59
So, I think the first thing that the blogosphere tells us
143
521000
3000
所以，我认为博客世界告诉我们的第一件事就是
09:02
is that we need to expand our idea of what counts as rational,
144
524000
3000
我们需要扩展我们所认为的理性世界，
09:05
and we need to expand our simple equation of value equals money,
145
527000
4000
并且我们需要扩展我们简单的将价值等同于金钱的等式，
09:09
or, you have to pay for it to be good,
146
531000
2000
或者说，你需要付钱才能得到好的这样的想法，
09:11
but that in fact you can end up with collectively really brilliant products
147
533000
3000
但是，实际上你能获得非常棒的集体创造的产品
09:14
without any money at all changing hands.
148
536000
3000
而不需要付任何的钱。
09:17
There are a few bloggers -- somewhere maybe around 20, now --
149
539000
3000
当然有少数博客作者 - 可能大约20， 到目前为止 -
09:20
who do, in fact, make some kind of money, and a few
150
542000
3000
实际上，他们能够赚一些钱，非常有限
09:23
who are actually trying to make a full-time living out of it,
151
545000
3000
有一些人实际上想要通过这一方式来谋生，
09:26
but the vast majority of them are doing it because they love it
152
548000
2000
但是绝大部分人之所以做这件事情仅仅是因为他们热爱它
09:28
or they love the attention, or whatever it is.
153
550000
2000
或者说他们喜欢得到关注，或者其他。
09:30
So, Howard Rheingold has written a lot about this
154
552000
2000
所以，霍华德 宁柯德曾写过很多有关这个的东西，
09:32
and, I think, is writing about this more,
155
554000
2000
并且我认为写这个会更多，
09:34
but this notion of voluntary cooperation
156
556000
3000
但是这一种自愿性合作的理念
09:37
is an incredibly powerful one, and one worth thinking about.
157
559000
3000
有种无可比拟的力量，它值得每个人为之思考。
09:40
The second question is, What does the blogosphere actually do for us,
158
562000
5000
第二个问题是，从获取集体性智慧这一方面来说，
09:45
in terms of accessing collective intelligence?
159
567000
3000
博客世界究竟为我们做了什么？
09:48
You know, as Chris mentioned, I wrote a book called "The Wisdom of Crowds."
160
570000
3000
你们可能知道，克里斯也曾提到的，我写过一本叫做“人群的智慧”书。
09:51
And the premise of "The Wisdom of Crowds" is that,
161
573000
3000
而“人群的智慧”的前提是，
09:54
under the right conditions, groups can be remarkably intelligent.
162
576000
4000
在正确的情形下，团体能够充分发挥聪明才智。
09:58
And they can actually often be smarter
163
580000
2000
并且实际上大多数时候他们比
10:00
than even the smartest person within them.
164
582000
2000
他们之中最聪明的人更加聪明。
10:02
The simplest example of this is if you ask a group of people
165
584000
3000
这个最简单的例子就是如果你叫一群人
10:05
to do something like guess how many jellybeans are in a jar.
166
587000
4000
去做些事，比如，猜瓶子里有多少粒软糖。
10:09
If I had a jar of jellybeans
167
591000
2000
如果我有一罐软糖，
10:11
and I asked you all to guess how many jellybeans were in that jar,
168
593000
3000
并且我要你猜罐子里有多少颗糖，
10:14
your average guess would be remarkably good.
169
596000
3000
你一般的猜测都会非常不错。
10:17
It would be somewhere probably within three and five percent
170
599000
2000
一般来说它只到
10:19
of the number of beans in the jar,
171
601000
2000
在罐子里糖的数量的3%到5%，
10:21
and it would be better than 90 to 95 percent of you.
172
603000
5000
而这一答案会比你们中90%到95%人的答案准确。
10:26
There may be one or two of you who are brilliant jelly bean guessers,
173
608000
3000
你们中可能有一两个出色的软糖猜谜人，
10:29
but for the most part the group's guess
174
611000
3000
但是绝大部分团体的猜测
10:32
would be better than just about all of you.
175
614000
2000
都会比所有的个人的猜测准确。
10:34
And what's fascinating is that you can see this phenomenon at work
176
616000
3000
这个现象最令人着迷的是，你能在很多复杂情况
10:37
in many more complicated situations.
177
619000
3000
的工作中看到这一现象。
10:40
For instance, if you look at the odds on horses at a racetrack,
178
622000
3000
所以，比如说，如果你看看猜跑道上赛马的赔率，
10:43
they predict almost perfectly how likely a horse is to win.
179
625000
5000
他们能够几乎完美的预测出一匹马赢的概率。
10:48
In a sense, the group of betters at the racetrack
180
630000
3000
在一定程度上，赛马行业的一群精英
10:51
is forecasting the future, in probabilistic terms.
181
633000
4000
以概率的方式，预测着未来。
10:55
You know, if you think about something like Google,
182
637000
2000
你知道，如果我考虑某些比如像Google一样的东西，
10:57
which essentially is relying on the collective intelligence of the Web
183
639000
4000
这些主要依靠集体智慧的网站
11:01
to seek out those sites that have the most valuable information --
184
643000
4000
来寻找所拥有的宝贵的信息的网站。
11:05
we know that Google does an exceptionally good job of doing that,
185
647000
3000
我们都知道对于那样的工作，Google能够出色的完成，
11:08
and it does that because, collectively, this disorganized thing
186
650000
3000
它之所以能够做到，是因为这一杂乱无序，我们叫做世界互联网的东西
11:11
we call the "World Wide Web" actually has a remarkable order,
187
653000
4000
实际上在整体上有着很清楚的次序，
11:15
or a remarkable intelligence in it.
188
657000
2000
或者可以说着惊人的智慧。
11:18
And this, I think, is one of the real promises of the blogosphere.
189
660000
3000
这，我认为，正是博客世界的真正希望之一。
11:21
Dan Gillmor -- whose book "We the Media"
190
663000
2000
Dan Gillmor写了一本书叫做“我们媒体”--
11:23
is included in the gift pack --
191
665000
2000
我们在礼物包中有提供--
11:25
has talked about it as saying that, as a writer,
192
667000
3000
谈到了他作为一个作家
11:28
he's recognized that his readers know more than he does.
193
670000
4000
发现他的读者比他知道得更多。
11:32
And this is a very challenging idea. It's a very challenging idea
194
674000
3000
而这是一个十分有挑战性的观点。非常非常有挑战性
11:35
to mainstream media. It's a very challenging idea to anyone
195
677000
2000
特别是对主流媒体来说。这也是一个对于任何花费了无数时间，拥有专业技能的人
11:37
who has invested an enormous amount of time and expertise,
196
679000
4000
十分有挑战性的观点
11:41
and who has a lot of energy invested in the notion
197
683000
3000
同样也是对那些花费了很多精力形成一个观点，
11:44
that he or she knows better than everyone else.
198
686000
4000
认为自己比其他人知道的更多的人的一种挑战。
11:49
But what the blogosphere offers is the possibility
199
691000
3000
但是博客世界提供的是一种
11:52
of getting at the kind of collective, distributive intelligence that is out there,
200
694000
5000
能够获得存在于世间集体的，分散性智慧的可能性，
11:57
and that we know is available to us
201
699000
2000
我们知道，它能够为我所用
11:59
if we can just figure out a way of accessing it.
202
701000
4000
如果我们能够找到获得它的途径。
12:03
Each blog post, each blog commentary
203
705000
3000
每一条博客主题，每一则博客评论，
12:06
may not, in and of itself, be exactly what we're looking for,
204
708000
4000
可能并不是跟我们所需要的东西一模一样，
12:10
but collectively the judgment of those people posting, those people linking,
205
712000
5000
但是这些人所张贴主题中所反射出的集体判断力，这些人链接，
12:15
more often than not is going to give you a very interesting
206
717000
4000
更有可能给你一个对于所发生事情
12:19
and enormously valuable picture of what's going on.
207
721000
3000
十分有趣的并且相当有价值的视野。
12:22
So, that's the positive side of it.
208
724000
2000
所以，这是它积极的一面。
12:24
That's the positive side of what is sometimes called
209
726000
2000
而这一积极的一面经常被称为
12:26
participatory journalism or citizen journalism, etc. --
210
728000
5000
参与式新闻或者公民新闻，等等，
12:31
that, in fact, we are giving people
211
733000
3000
实际上，我们都是那一类人
12:34
who have never been able to talk before a voice,
212
736000
3000
在同一种声音前无法发声，
12:37
and we're able to access information that has always been there
213
739000
3000
并且我们能够获取那些始终存在
12:40
but has essentially gone untapped.
214
742000
3000
但是基本上从未被涉及到的信息。
12:43
But there is a dark side to this,
215
745000
2000
但是它同样也有黑暗的一面，
12:45
and that's what I want to spend the last part of my talk on.
216
747000
3000
而这正是我最后一部分演讲将要涉及的地方。
12:48
One of the things that happens if you spend a lot of time on the Internet,
217
750000
3000
如果你花很多时间在互联网上，或者花很多时间思考互联网
12:51
and you spend a lot of time thinking about the Internet,
218
753000
2000
有一种事情将会发生
12:53
is that it is very easy to fall in love with the Internet.
219
755000
4000
你将会爱上互联网。
12:57
It is very easy to fall in love with the decentralized,
220
759000
3000
非常容易你将会爱上去中心化，
13:00
bottom-up structure of the Internet.
221
762000
2000
从下到上建构的互联网。
13:02
It is very easy to think that networks are necessarily good things --
222
764000
5000
同样你也能够很容易想到互联网一定就是好的,
13:07
that being linked from one place to another,
223
769000
2000
它们从一个地方链接到另外地方，
13:09
that being tightly linked in a group, is a very good thing.
224
771000
4000
与集体紧密相连，是非常好的一件事。
13:13
And much of the time it is.
225
775000
2000
在大多数情况都是这样。
13:15
But there's also a downside to this -- a kind of dark side, in fact --
226
777000
4000
但是这同样也有不好的一面 - 实际上，黑暗的一面 -
13:19
and that is that the more tightly linked we've become to each other,
227
781000
4000
当我们更加紧密的连接在一起的时候，
13:23
the harder it is for each of us to remain independent.
228
785000
4000
我们要保持各自的独立性就更难。
13:27
One of the fundamental characteristics of a network is that,
229
789000
3000
网络最基本的一个特征是
13:30
once you are linked in the network,
230
792000
2000
只要你连上了网络
13:32
the network starts to shape your views
231
794000
3000
网络就会开始塑造你的观点
13:35
and starts to shape your interactions with everybody else.
232
797000
3000
并且同时开始塑造你与他人的互动。
13:38
That's one of the things that defines what a network is.
233
800000
2000
而这正是定义什么是网络的因素之一。
13:40
A network is not just the product of its component parts.
234
802000
4000
网络并不是简单的是组成它的部分的集合。
13:44
It is something more than that.
235
806000
3000
更多时候它会比这更多。
13:47
It is, as Steven Johnson has talked about, an emergent phenomenon.
236
809000
4000
正如Stieve Johnson谈过的一样，这是一个很新鲜的现象。
13:51
Now, this has all these benefits:
237
813000
2000
现在，它有这么一些优点：
13:53
it's very beneficial in terms of the efficiency of communicating information;
238
815000
3000
对于有效的信息沟通，它是十分有益的；
13:56
it gives you access to a whole host of people;
239
818000
3000
它能使你接触到各种各样的人；
13:59
it allows people to coordinate their activities in very good ways.
240
821000
3000
它能够让人们以一种好的方式协调他们的活动。
14:02
But the problem is that groups are only smart
241
824000
4000
但是问题是，集体，只有在人们
14:06
when the people in them are as independent as possible.
242
828000
4000
尽可能独立的情况下才能显现出智慧。
14:10
This is the paradox of the wisdom of crowds,
243
832000
3000
只是一种群众智慧的矛盾，
14:13
or the paradox of collective intelligence,
244
835000
2000
或者说是集体智慧的矛盾，
14:15
that what it requires is actually a form of independent thinking.
245
837000
5000
它所真正需要的是一种独立的思想。
14:20
And networks make it harder for people to do that,
246
842000
4000
而网络使人们更难做到那一点，
14:24
because they drive attention to the things that the network values.
247
846000
4000
因为他们使更多的注意力转到了网络所重视的地方。
14:28
So, one of the phenomena that's very clear in the blogosphere
248
850000
4000
所以，在博客世界中一个非常清楚的现象是
14:32
is that once a meme, once an idea gets going,
249
854000
4000
一旦一个文化基因，一个想法，开始发展
14:36
it is very easy for people to just sort of pile on,
250
858000
3000
人们非常容易继续发展它，
14:39
because other people have, say, a link.
251
861000
3000
因为其他人都拥有，比如说，相互连接。
14:42
People have linked to it, and so other people in turn link to it, etc., etc.
252
864000
3000
一些人开始与之有连接，然后其他人开始轮流与之有连接，然后又是其他人。。。
14:45
And that phenomenon
253
867000
3000
这是一种
14:48
of piling on the existing links
254
870000
3000
在已经存在的连接上继续延伸的现象
14:51
is one that is characteristic of the blogosphere,
255
873000
3000
而它真是博客世界的特征，
14:54
particularly of the political blogosphere,
256
876000
3000
特别是政治博客世界的特征，
14:57
and it is one that essentially throws off
257
879000
3000
而这从根本上来说是一种抛弃
15:00
this beautiful, decentralized, bottom-up intelligence
258
882000
3000
一种对去中心化，自下而上美丽智慧的抛弃
15:03
that blogs can manifest in the right conditions.
259
885000
3000
而这一智慧真是博客在正常情况下必然能够展现的。
15:06
The metaphor that I like to use is the metaphor of the circular mill.
260
888000
4000
我在这想用转圆圈来打比方。
15:10
A lot of people talk about ants.
261
892000
2000
很多人会说到蚂蚁。
15:12
You know, this is a conference inspired by nature.
262
894000
2000
我们都知道，这是一个被自然启发而生的会议。
15:14
When we talk about bottom-up, decentralized phenomena,
263
896000
3000
当我们讨论这些自下而上，去中心化的现象时，
15:17
the ant colony is the classic metaphor, because,
264
899000
4000
蚁巢就是这一类的经典比喻，因为我们知道，
15:21
no individual ant knows what it's doing,
265
903000
2000
每一个单独的蚂蚁并不知道它们在做什么，
15:23
but collectively ants are able to reach incredibly intelligent decisions.
266
905000
5000
但是通过集体，蚂蚁们能够做出惊人的智慧决策。
15:29
They're able to guide their traffic with remarkable speed.
267
911000
7000
它们能够以惊人的高速引导他们的交通。
15:36
So, the ant colony is a great model:
268
918000
2000
所以，蚁巢是一个非常好的模型 -
15:38
you have all these little parts that collectively add up to a great thing.
269
920000
3000
我们所有的这些小部件最终能够组成一个伟大的东西。
15:41
But we know that occasionally ants go astray,
270
923000
4000
但是我们也知道蚂蚁偶尔也会迷路，
15:45
and what happens is that, if army ants are wandering around and they get lost,
271
927000
4000
这样的情况是，如果兵蚁在绕圈并且失去了方向感，
15:49
they start to follow a simple rule --
272
931000
2000
他们将会遵循一条简单原则 -
15:51
just do what the ant in front of you does.
273
933000
4000
他们将做它们前面蚂蚁做的同样事情。
15:55
And what happens is that the ants eventually end up in a circle.
274
937000
4000
所以最终蚂蚁将会走出一个圆圈。
15:59
And there's this famous example of one that was 1,200 feet long
275
941000
4000
这其中最著名的一个例子走出了一千二百英尺长的距离
16:03
and lasted for two days, and the ants just kept marching around and around
276
945000
4000
持续了两天，这些蚂蚁不停的绕圈前进
16:07
in a circle until they died.
277
949000
3000
一直绕圈直到他们死掉。
16:10
And that, I think, is a sort of thing to watch out for.
278
952000
3000
我认为，那是一种我们必须要警惕的事情。
16:13
That's the thing we have to fear --
279
955000
2000
如果我们一直绕圈直到我们死去
16:15
is that we're just going to keep marching around and around until we die.
280
957000
4000
这将是一种我们必须要畏惧的事情。
16:19
Now, I want to connect this back, though, to the tsunami,
281
961000
3000
现在，我想要将这个例子往回延伸，到我们的海啸上，
16:22
because one of the great things about the tsunami --
282
964000
2000
因为关于海啸有件很好的事，
16:24
in terms of the blogosphere's coverage,
283
966000
2000
在博客世界报道海啸方面，
16:26
not in terms of the tsunami itself --
284
968000
2000
不是海啸本身，
16:28
is that it really did represent a genuine bottom-up phenomenon.
285
970000
4000
就是它确实代表了一种真实的自下而上的现象。
16:32
You saw sites that had never existed before getting huge amounts of traffic.
286
974000
3000
你会发现很多以前从未存在的网站会得到巨大访问量。
16:35
You saw people being able to offer up
their independent points of view
their independent points of view
287
977000
4000
你会发现人们能够提供他们独立的见解和视角
16:39
in a way that they hadn't before.
288
981000
2000
以他们从未有过的方式提供。
16:41
There, you really did see the intelligence of the Web manifest itself.
289
983000
5000
并且我们能够真正从中看到网络展现了它的智慧。
16:46
So, that's the upside. The circular mill is the downside.
290
988000
3000
所以，那正是积极的一面。而循环的绕圈则是它消极的一面。
16:49
And I think that the former is what we really need to strive for.
291
991000
3000
并且我认为前一种情况正是我们需要不断努力来不断获得的。
16:52
Thank you very much. (Applause)
292
994000
1000
谢谢。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
James Surowiecki - Finance journalistJames Surowiecki argues that people, when we act en masse, are smarter than we think. He's the author of The Wisdom of Crowds and writes about finance for the New Yorker.
Why you should listen
James Surowiecki has been reporting on finance and human behavior since the days of the Motley Fool on AOL. He's had a ringside seat for some roller-coaster times in business, but always, his focus has been on regular people -- not titans of Wall Street, but you and me. In 2004, he published The Wisdom of Crowds, an exploration of the hive mind as it plays out in business and in other arenas of life.
Surowiecki is the finance writer for the New Yorker, and writes a lively and funny (and lately, indispensable) blog for newyorker.com, The Balance Sheet. His other books include the wonderfully titled but sadly quite relevant Best Business Crime Writing of 2003.
James Surowiecki | Speaker | TED.com