TED2005
James Surowiecki: The power and the danger of online crowds
詹姆士．蘇洛維奇談論社群媒體
Filmed:
Readability: 4
510,081 views
詹姆士．蘇洛維奇指出，當2005年南亞海嘯發生之後，社群媒體就成了報導新聞的重要工具，像是YouTube、部落格、即時通訊及簡訊等，都幫忙散播新聞，並協助報導在這場災難中某些動人的故事。
James Surowiecki - Finance journalist
James Surowiecki argues that people, when we act en masse, are smarter than we think. He's the author of The Wisdom of Crowds and writes about finance for the New Yorker. Full bio
James Surowiecki argues that people, when we act en masse, are smarter than we think. He's the author of The Wisdom of Crowds and writes about finance for the New Yorker. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:19
This was in an area called Wellawatta, a prime residential area in Colombo.
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我們那時是在可倫坡某個叫做委拉哇塔的住宅區裡，
00:23
We stood on the railroad tracks
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我們站在鐵軌上，
00:25
that ran between my friend's house and the beach.
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那條鐵軌就在我朋友的家和海邊之間，
00:28
The tracks are elevated about eight feet from the waterline normally,
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鐵軌的高度一般是在海平面上2.5公尺高，
00:31
but at that point the water had receded
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但那時海水正值退潮，
00:33
to a level three or four feet below normal.
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所以海平面也降到比平常還低個一公尺左右。
00:36
I'd never seen the reef here before.
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以前我從未在那裡看過礁石，
00:38
There were fish caught in rock pools left behind by the receding water.
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有些小魚被困在海水退去後的礁石水窪裡，
00:43
Some children jumped down and ran to the rock pools with bags.
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孩子們便都跳進水裡，帶著袋子跑到水窪旁，
00:47
They were trying to catch fish.
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想要抓起那些小魚。
00:49
No one realized that this was a very bad idea.
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沒人知道這樣做並不妥當，
00:52
The people on the tracks just continued to watch them.
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大家都只是站在鐵軌上看著他們抓魚，
00:55
I turned around to check on my friend's house.
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我轉過身去看我朋友的家，
00:58
Then someone on the tracks screamed.
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接著就聽到有人在鐵軌上大叫，
01:00
Before I could turn around, everyone on the tracks was screaming and running.
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我還來不及回頭看，站在鐵軌上的人全都尖叫起來，而且開始往回跑，
01:04
The water had started coming back. It was foaming over the reef.
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海水開始回漲上來，淹沒了礁石。
01:08
The children managed to run back onto the tracks.
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孩子們盡力跑回鐵軌上，
01:12
No one was lost there. But the water continued to climb.
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沒人落在後頭。但海水還是持續上漲，
01:16
In about two minutes, it had reached the level of the railroad tracks
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大約二分鐘之後，海水幾乎就要上升到和鐵軌一樣高了，
01:19
and was coming over it. We had run about 100 meters by this time.
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快要淹沒鐵軌了！這次我們往回跑了100公尺，
01:23
It continued to rise.
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我一直往高的地方爬，
01:25
I saw an old man standing at his gate, knee-deep in water, refusing to move.
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我看到一個老人站在自己的門前，膝蓋都泡在水裡了，但他不願逃走，
01:30
He said he'd lived his whole life there by the beach,
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他說他這輩子都在這個海邊渡過，
01:33
and that he would rather die there than run.
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他寧願死也不願逃走。
01:36
A boy broke away from his mother to run back into his house
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有個男孩掙脫了媽媽的手，跑回屋裡，
01:39
to get his dog, who was apparently afraid.
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去救他的狗，那隻狗完全嚇呆了。
01:42
An old lady, crying, was carried out of her house and up the road by her son.
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有個哭泣的老婦人，被她的兒子從房子裡揹了出來。
01:47
The slum built on the railroad reservation
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那個在鐵路保留區內的貧民窟，
01:50
between the sea and the railroad tracks was completely swept away.
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原來是在鐵軌與海灘之間，現在全被沖走了。
01:54
Since this was a high-risk location, the police had warned the residents,
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因為這裡是高危險區域，警察早就警告過這裡的居民，
01:57
and no one was there when the water rose.
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所以當海嘯來的時候，這裡已經沒人了。
01:59
But they had not had any time to evacuate any belongings.
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但他們還是來不及帶走自己的物品。
02:03
For hours afterwards, the sea was strewn with bits of wood for miles around --
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過了幾個鐘頭之後，海水退去，留下了遍地斷裂的木頭，
02:07
all of this was from the houses in the slum.
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全都是貧民窟的殘垣碎瓦。
02:10
When the waters subsided, it was as if it had never existed.
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海水退去之後，就像從沒發生過海嘯一樣。
02:16
This may seem hard to believe --
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或許你很難相信海嘯曾在此肆虐，
02:18
unless you've been reading lots and lots of news reports --
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除非你看過很多新聞報導，
02:20
but in many places, after the tsunami, villagers were still terrified.
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但在海嘯之後，大部分的村民都還是驚惶失措。
02:24
When what was a tranquil sea swallows up people, homes
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看著曾經風平浪靜的海洋把人們、房屋、
02:27
and long-tail boats -- mercilessly, without warning --
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長尾船等全都無情地吞噬，沒有任何警訊，
02:29
and no one can tell you anything reliable about whether another one is coming,
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沒人知道是否還有下一波海嘯要來，
02:33
I'm not sure you'd want to calm down either.
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我也不確定大家是否已經恢復平靜。
02:36
One of the scariest things about the tsunami
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海嘯最可怕的是
02:38
that I've not seen mentioned is the complete lack of information.
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我們完全無法取得資訊，
02:42
This may seem minor, but it is terrifying to hear rumor after rumor
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這或許是小事一椿，但最可怕的是聽到不同的謠言，
02:45
after rumor that another tidal wave, bigger than the last,
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有人說又有另一波海嘯要來了，比上一個還要大，
02:48
will be coming at exactly 1 p.m., or perhaps tonight, or perhaps ...
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會在下午一點來襲，或是今天晚上，或是...
02:53
You don't even know if it is safe to go back down to the water,
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你無法判斷是不是可以回到海邊
02:56
to catch a boat to the hospital.
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搭船去醫院。
02:58
We think that Phi Phi hospital was destroyed.
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我們認為菲菲醫院已經毁了，
03:00
We think this boat is going to Phuket hospital,
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我們覺得去普吉醫院比較好，
03:03
but if it's too dangerous to land at its pier,
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但如果到時候無法靠岸，
03:05
then perhaps it will go to Krabi instead, which is more protected.
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就要轉去喀拉比醫院，那裡比較安全。
03:09
We don't think another wave is coming right away.
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我們覺得下一波海嘯不會那麼快就來，
03:12
At the Phi Phi Hill Resort,
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而在菲菲山丘渡假村裡，
03:14
I was tucked into the corner furthest away from the television,
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我被擠到離電視最遠的角落，
03:17
but I strained to listen for information.
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但我還是儘量聽取資訊。
03:19
They reported that there was an 8.5 magnitude earthquake in Sumatra,
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電視上說蘇門答臘發生了8.5級的強震，
03:22
which triggered the massive tsunami.
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引發了這起大規模的海嘯。
03:24
Having this news was comforting in some small way
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聽到這則新聞讓我們稍微放下心了，
03:26
to understand what had just happened to us.
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至少我們知道發生了什麼事。
03:28
However, the report focused on what had already occurred
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但是，電視新聞一直在報導發生過的災情，
03:31
and offered no information on what to expect now.
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卻沒有告訴我們接下來會發生什麼事。
03:34
In general, everything was merely hearsay and rumor,
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大家都只是道聽塗說，胡亂傳播謠言，
03:37
and not a single person I spoke to for over 36 hours
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在接下來的36個小時裡，和我說過話的人裡面，
03:40
knew anything with any certainty.
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沒人能確定會發生什麼事。
03:43
Those were two accounts of the Asian tsunami from two Internet blogs
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這二篇是在南亞海嘯發生後，
03:49
that essentially sprang up after it occurred.
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出現在網路部落格上的文章。
03:52
I'm now going to show you two video segments from the tsunami
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我要播放二支有關海嘯的影片，
03:57
that also were shown on blogs.
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這二支也是部落格裡的影片。
03:59
I should warn you, they're pretty powerful.
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我先警告各位，影片內容很震撼，
04:01
One from Thailand, and the second one from Phuket as well.
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第一支是在泰國拍攝，第二支則是在普吉島拍攝。
04:05
(Screaming)
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(尖叫聲)
04:19
Voice 1: It's coming in. It's coming again.
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甲：要來了，要來了！
04:22
Voice 2: It's coming again?
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乙：又要來了嗎？
04:24
Voice 1: Yeah. It's coming again.
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甲：對，又要來了！
04:26
Voice 2: Come get inside here.
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乙：....
04:30
Voice 1: It's coming again. Voice 2: New wave?
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甲：又來了！是另一波海嘯！
04:35
Voice 1: It's coming again. New wave!
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又來了！
04:40
[Unclear]
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.....
04:44
(Screaming)
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(尖叫聲)
05:05
They called me out here.
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他們叫我離開這裡...
05:21
James Surowiecki: Phew. Those were both on this site: waveofdestruction.org.
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詹姆士：呼...這二支影片都放在這個網站：Waveofdestruction.org
05:27
In the world of blogs, there's going to be before the tsunami and after the tsunami,
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在部落格的世界裡，海嘯之前和海嘯之後有很清楚的分野，
05:31
because one of the things that happened in the wake of the tsunami was that,
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因為在海嘯發生之後，有一件事值得討論，
05:35
although initially -- that is, in that first day --
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雖然一開始，在海嘯發生後的第一天，
05:37
there was actually a kind of dearth of live reporting, there was a dearth of live video
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現場報導的新聞資訊顯然不足，也缺乏可以播放的影片，
05:41
and some people complained about this.
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所以有些人開始抱怨，
05:43
They said, "The blogsters let us down."
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他們認為部落客讓大家失望了。
05:46
What became very clear was that,
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後來事情卻有了完全不一樣的發展，
05:48
within a few days, the outpouring of information was immense,
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幾天之內，各種資訊排山倒海而來，
05:53
and we got a complete and powerful picture of what had happened
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我們取得了完整且令人震撼的報導，
05:58
in a way that we never had been able to get before.
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那是我們以前完全無法想像到的境界。
06:01
And what you had was a group of essentially unorganized, unconnected
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這些人基本上都是沒有組織、互不相識的作家、
06:04
writers, video bloggers, etc., who were able to come up with
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或是部落格攝影師這一類的，他們共同描繪出
06:09
a collective portrait of a disaster that gave us a much better sense
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整個災難的景象，讓我們知道當地發生了什麼事，
06:13
of what it was like to actually be there than the mainstream media could give us.
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遠比主流媒體的報導還要詳盡。
06:18
And so in some ways the tsunami can be seen as a sort of seminal moment,
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因此，或許我們可以把這次的海嘯視為一個轉捩點，
06:22
a moment in which the blogosphere came, to a certain degree, of age.
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讓我們的部落格文化得以發展，以臻成熟。
06:28
Now, I'm going to move now from this kind of --
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現在，我想要把話題轉個方向，
06:30
the sublime in the traditional sense of the word,
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從一般人認為的高尚、
06:32
that is to say, awe-inspiring, terrifying -- to the somewhat more mundane.
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激勵人心或令人震撼的話題，轉到較為俗世的話題。
06:37
Because when we think about blogs,
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當我們在思考部落格的時候，
06:39
I think for most of us who are concerned about them,
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我認為大部分關心部落格的人，
06:42
we're primarily concerned with things like politics, technology, etc.
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關心的話題應該都是政治或科技這一類的事，
06:47
And I want to ask three questions in this talk,
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而我在這裡要問三個問題，
06:49
in the 10 minutes that remain, about the blogosphere.
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雖然只剩十分鐘，但我要問問各位有關部落格文化的事。
06:53
The first one is, What does it tell us about our ideas,
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第一個問題是，是什麼驅使人們去做這些事？
06:56
about what motivates people to do things?
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我們又得到什麼樣的啟發？
06:58
The second is, Do blogs genuinely have the possibility
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第二個問題，部落格真能這麼神奇地結合起來，
07:02
of accessing a kind of collective intelligence
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達到我們稱之為「群體智慧」的境界，
07:06
that has previously remained, for the most part, untapped?
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而我們一般人以前都無法達到這個境界？
07:09
And then the third part is, What are the potential problems,
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第三個問題，部落格有沒有什麼潛在的問題，
07:13
or the dark side of blogs as we know them?
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或是某些缺點呢？
07:17
OK, the first question:
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好，先看第一個問題：
07:19
What do they tell us about why people do things?
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他們是否能告訴我們為什麼大家要這麼做？
07:21
One of the fascinating things about the blogosphere specifically,
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關於部落格文化最令人著迷的現象之一，
07:24
and, of course, the Internet more generally --
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當然，這在網路世界很普遍，
07:27
and it's going to seem like a very obvious point,
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而且大家也很容易看得出來，
07:29
but I think it is an important one to think about --
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但我覺得這仍然是值得我們重視的現象，
07:31
is that the people who are generating these enormous reams of content
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就是那些每天孜孜不倦為我們產出大量文章的部落客們，
07:35
every day, who are spending enormous amounts of time organizing,
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其實每個人都花了大量的時間在組合、
07:40
linking, commenting on the substance of the Internet,
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連結、或評論網路上的各種內容，
07:43
are doing so primarily for free.
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而且他們完全沒有為此而支領薪水。
07:46
They are not getting paid for it in any way other than in the attention and,
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他們不求回報，只希望能搏取別人的注意，
07:50
to some extent, the reputational capital that they gain from doing a good job.
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有時候他們也能因為自己所做的事而獲取不錯的名聲。
07:55
And this is -- at least, to a traditional economist -- somewhat remarkable,
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以傳統經濟學理論來看，這未免太不可思議，
08:00
because the traditional account of economic man would say that,
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大部分支持傳統經濟學理論的人都認為，
08:04
basically, you do things for a concrete reward, primarily financial.
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每個人做事都是為了獲取回報，而且是財務上的回報。
08:09
But instead, what we're finding on the Internet --
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但是，我們在網路世界上看到的，
08:12
and one of the great geniuses of it -- is that people have found a way
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堪稱最神奇的現象，這些人在網路世界上一起合作，
08:16
to work together without any money involved at all.
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卻分文不取。
08:19
They have come up with, in a sense, a different method for organizing activity.
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他們所呈現的，是另一種截然不同的組織活動。
08:24
The Yale Law professor Yochai Benkler, in an essay called "Coase's Penguin,"
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耶魯法學教授友柴．班克勒在其論文「科斯的企鵝」中，
08:29
talks about this open-source model, which we're familiar with from Linux,
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談到開放程式碼的架構，就像我們所熟知的Linux，
08:33
as being potentially applicable in a whole host of situations.
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已經可以廣泛地被運用到各個層面。
08:36
And, you know, if you think about this with the tsunami,
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若我們把這個與海嘯聯想起來，
08:38
what you have is essentially a kind of an army of local journalists,
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我們所看到的就是一支由業餘記者所組成的大軍，
08:42
who are producing enormous amounts of material
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他們為我們報導了無數的新聞，
08:45
for no reason other than to tell their stories.
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不求任何回報，只為向世人發聲。
08:47
That's a very powerful idea, and it's a very powerful reality.
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這是個很棒的想法，也造成了很棒的現象，
08:51
And it's one that offers really interesting possibilities
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為我們未來的各種組織活動
08:53
for organizing a whole host of activities down the road.
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創造了各種有趣的可能性。
08:59
So, I think the first thing that the blogosphere tells us
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我認為部落格文化教我們的第一件事，
09:02
is that we need to expand our idea of what counts as rational,
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是我們得去實踐任何我們覺得合理的想法，
09:05
and we need to expand our simple equation of value equals money,
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並擴大解釋金錢就等於價值這個狹隘的想法，
09:09
or, you have to pay for it to be good,
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也就是不要再以為每個人做事都是為獲取報酬，
09:11
but that in fact you can end up with collectively really brilliant products
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我們其實可以集眾人之力創造出很棒的東西，
09:14
without any money at all changing hands.
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但並不一定要有金錢涉入其中。
09:17
There are a few bloggers -- somewhere maybe around 20, now --
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當然有些部落客--或許有20個吧--
09:20
who do, in fact, make some kind of money, and a few
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可以靠部落格賺錢，
09:23
who are actually trying to make a full-time living out of it,
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有些人還打算將經營部落格當成全職工作，
09:26
but the vast majority of them are doing it because they love it
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但絕大多數的部落客，都只是純為喜好才寫部落格，
09:28
or they love the attention, or whatever it is.
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或是為了獲取大家注意這一類的。
09:30
So, Howard Rheingold has written a lot about this
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霍華德．萊因戈德針對這個現象寫了很多文章，
09:32
and, I think, is writing about this more,
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我覺得他寫得更為深入，
09:34
but this notion of voluntary cooperation
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這種自願性質的合作，
09:37
is an incredibly powerful one, and one worth thinking about.
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真的很震撼人心，我們應該好好想一想。
09:40
The second question is, What does the blogosphere actually do for us,
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第二個問題，部落格能幫助我們
09:45
in terms of accessing collective intelligence?
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達到「群體智慧」的境界嗎？
09:48
You know, as Chris mentioned, I wrote a book called "The Wisdom of Crowds."
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剛才克里斯有提到，我寫過一本書，名為「群眾的智慧」，
09:51
And the premise of "The Wisdom of Crowds" is that,
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這本書的主題是，
09:54
under the right conditions, groups can be remarkably intelligent.
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在某些對的場合裡，群眾可以展露出了不起的智慧。
09:58
And they can actually often be smarter
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群眾集合起來的智慧，
10:00
than even the smartest person within them.
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甚至會比群眾裡最聰明的人還要聰明。
10:02
The simplest example of this is if you ask a group of people
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有一個很簡單的例子可以說明，如果你請一群人
10:05
to do something like guess how many jellybeans are in a jar.
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猜猜某個糖果罐裡有多少糖果，他們可以回答得很精確。
10:09
If I had a jar of jellybeans
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如果我手上拿著那罐糖果，
10:11
and I asked you all to guess how many jellybeans were in that jar,
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我請各位猜猜裡面有多少糖果，
10:14
your average guess would be remarkably good.
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在座各位猜測的平均數，將會是最接近的答案，
10:17
It would be somewhere probably within three and five percent
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誤差大概就只有那罐糖果
10:19
of the number of beans in the jar,
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數量的3%到5%之間，
10:21
and it would be better than 90 to 95 percent of you.
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而且比在座90%到95%的人猜得都準。
10:26
There may be one or two of you who are brilliant jelly bean guessers,
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在座各位可能有一或二位猜得很準，
10:29
but for the most part the group's guess
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但是大部分人所猜數量的平均數，
10:32
would be better than just about all of you.
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將會比這裡每個人所猜的數量來得準確。
10:34
And what's fascinating is that you can see this phenomenon at work
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更神奇的是，這種現象
10:37
in many more complicated situations.
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在處理更為複雜的問題時，也同樣會發生。
10:40
For instance, if you look at the odds on horses at a racetrack,
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舉例來說，如果我們觀察賽馬勝出的機率，
10:43
they predict almost perfectly how likely a horse is to win.
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群眾預測的準確度幾近完美。
10:48
In a sense, the group of betters at the racetrack
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在某方面來說，群眾所擅長的是
10:51
is forecasting the future, in probabilistic terms.
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針對未來或然率的預測。
10:55
You know, if you think about something like Google,
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讓我們來想想Google，
10:57
which essentially is relying on the collective intelligence of the Web
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Google本質上就是在網路上，集合眾人之力，
11:01
to seek out those sites that have the most valuable information --
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找出在網路上最具價值的資訊。
11:05
we know that Google does an exceptionally good job of doing that,
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我們知道Google在這一方面做得很棒，
11:08
and it does that because, collectively, this disorganized thing
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但Google之所以有這番成就，是因為它集合了這群
11:11
we call the "World Wide Web" actually has a remarkable order,
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看似沒有組織的網民，但其實他們自有規律，
11:15
or a remarkable intelligence in it.
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也自有了不起的群體智慧。
11:18
And this, I think, is one of the real promises of the blogosphere.
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我認為，這就是部落格文化的精髓之一。
11:21
Dan Gillmor -- whose book "We the Media"
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我們放了一本丹．吉爾摩所寫的
11:23
is included in the gift pack --
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「群眾媒體」在你們的贈品袋內，
11:25
has talked about it as saying that, as a writer,
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他在書中談到，雖然身為一個作家，
11:28
he's recognized that his readers know more than he does.
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他還是不得不承認，他的讀者知道的比他更多。
11:32
And this is a very challenging idea. It's a very challenging idea
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這真是個令人震撼的想法，當然也震撼了
11:35
to mainstream media. It's a very challenging idea to anyone
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主流媒體，震撼了部落格的寫手們，
11:37
who has invested an enormous amount of time and expertise,
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這些人花了許多時間貢獻他們的專長，
11:41
and who has a lot of energy invested in the notion
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也花了很多精力經營部落格，
11:44
that he or she knows better than everyone else.
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他們知道的確實比其他人都要多。
11:49
But what the blogosphere offers is the possibility
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這股部落格文化告訴我們，
11:52
of getting at the kind of collective, distributive intelligence that is out there,
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要獲取群眾的集體智慧其實是有可能的，
11:57
and that we know is available to us
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這些智慧就在那裡，
11:59
if we can just figure out a way of accessing it.
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我們只需要找到方法來運用就可以了。
12:03
Each blog post, each blog commentary
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或許並不是每一篇部落格文章或評論
12:06
may not, in and of itself, be exactly what we're looking for,
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都是我們想要看的，
12:10
but collectively the judgment of those people posting, those people linking,
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但是集合眾人所寫的文章、評論或連結，
12:15
more often than not is going to give you a very interesting
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卻可以為我們對外界事務產生一種
12:19
and enormously valuable picture of what's going on.
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有趣又極有價值的獨特視野。
12:22
So, that's the positive side of it.
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這是部落格文化正面積極的一面，
12:24
That's the positive side of what is sometimes called
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這一面向來被人稱之為
12:26
participatory journalism or citizen journalism, etc. --
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參與性報導或市民報導，
12:31
that, in fact, we are giving people
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部落格讓原本不可能
12:34
who have never been able to talk before a voice,
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站出來說話的人發出聲音，
12:37
and we're able to access information that has always been there
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也讓尚未被人發掘的資訊，
12:40
but has essentially gone untapped.
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重新讓人看到它的存在。
12:43
But there is a dark side to this,
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但部落格文化亦有其黑暗面，
12:45
and that's what I want to spend the last part of my talk on.
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我想用最後這幾分鐘來說明一下。
12:48
One of the things that happens if you spend a lot of time on the Internet,
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如果你花很長的時間在網路上，
12:51
and you spend a lot of time thinking about the Internet,
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無時無刻都在想著網路上的事情，
12:53
is that it is very easy to fall in love with the Internet.
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你很容易就會愛上網路。
12:57
It is very easy to fall in love with the decentralized,
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一般人很容易就會迷上這種由下而上、
13:00
bottom-up structure of the Internet.
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具有分權架構的網路世界，
13:02
It is very easy to think that networks are necessarily good things --
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大家都普遍認為網路就是個好東西，
13:07
that being linked from one place to another,
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可以從某地連結到另一個地方，
13:09
that being tightly linked in a group, is a very good thing.
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也可以和群眾緊密連結，這真是太棒了！
13:13
And much of the time it is.
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大部分的情況是這樣沒錯，
13:15
But there's also a downside to this -- a kind of dark side, in fact --
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但網路仍有其缺點，甚至可以說是網路的陰暗面，
13:19
and that is that the more tightly linked we've become to each other,
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就是當我們愈和彼此緊密相連，
13:23
the harder it is for each of us to remain independent.
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我們就愈不可能保持獨立。
13:27
One of the fundamental characteristics of a network is that,
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網路有一個最基本的特性，
13:30
once you are linked in the network,
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一旦你連上網路，
13:32
the network starts to shape your views
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網路就會影響你的看法，
13:35
and starts to shape your interactions with everybody else.
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影響你和其他人的互動。
13:38
That's one of the things that defines what a network is.
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網路就是這麼運作的。
13:40
A network is not just the product of its component parts.
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網路不只是用幾個零件組成而已，
13:44
It is something more than that.
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網路遠大於此。
13:47
It is, as Steven Johnson has talked about, an emergent phenomenon.
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史蒂芬．強生就曾說過，這是一種新崛起的現象。
13:51
Now, this has all these benefits:
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網路可以帶來的好處是：
13:53
it's very beneficial in terms of the efficiency of communicating information;
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相互交換資訊可以變得更有效率；
13:56
it gives you access to a whole host of people;
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讓你可以接觸到許多不同的人；
13:59
it allows people to coordinate their activities in very good ways.
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讓大家可以用非常有效的方式共同做一件事。
14:02
But the problem is that groups are only smart
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但是，群眾的智慧只有在
14:06
when the people in them are as independent as possible.
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群體中的個人都是相互獨立的狀況下，才能彰顯出來，
14:10
This is the paradox of the wisdom of crowds,
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這有點像是群眾智慧的盲點，
14:13
or the paradox of collective intelligence,
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又或是集體智慧的盲點，
14:15
that what it requires is actually a form of independent thinking.
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但只有在每個人都能獨立思考時，才能產生群眾智慧。
14:20
And networks make it harder for people to do that,
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但網路會使人無法獨立思考，
14:24
because they drive attention to the things that the network values.
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因為大家都只關注網路上的重大事件。
14:28
So, one of the phenomena that's very clear in the blogosphere
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部落格文化會產生一種很明顯的現象，
14:32
is that once a meme, once an idea gets going,
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一旦有人發出訊息、說出某個想法，
14:36
it is very easy for people to just sort of pile on,
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其他的人就會盲目地跟隨，
14:39
because other people have, say, a link.
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因為大家都只是把連結加上去而已。
14:42
People have linked to it, and so other people in turn link to it, etc., etc.
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一旦有人連結上去，其他人也排隊跟著連結下去。
14:45
And that phenomenon
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這種現象，
14:48
of piling on the existing links
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這種跟隨現有連結的現象，
14:51
is one that is characteristic of the blogosphere,
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已成了現在部落格文化的特性，
14:54
particularly of the political blogosphere,
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尤其在某些政論部落格上特別明顯，
14:57
and it is one that essentially throws off
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這種特性會讓人忘記部落格
15:00
this beautiful, decentralized, bottom-up intelligence
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原本那種由下而上、具有分權特性的智慧，
15:03
that blogs can manifest in the right conditions.
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那種原本在正常情況下再清楚不過的智慧。
15:06
The metaphor that I like to use is the metaphor of the circular mill.
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我喜歡用繞圈圈的比喻來說明這種情況。
15:10
A lot of people talk about ants.
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很多人上台談過螞蟻，
15:12
You know, this is a conference inspired by nature.
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因為這本來就是要討論自然科學的研討會，
15:14
When we talk about bottom-up, decentralized phenomena,
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而當我們談由下而上的分權現象時，
15:17
the ant colony is the classic metaphor, because,
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想當然爾，蟻群就是最典型的例子，
15:21
no individual ant knows what it's doing,
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因為沒有一隻螞蟻知道自己在做什麼，
15:23
but collectively ants are able to reach incredibly intelligent decisions.
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但蟻群卻能完成了不起的任務，
15:29
They're able to guide their traffic with remarkable speed.
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他們永遠都知道如何讓蟻群維持高速前進狀態。
15:36
So, the ant colony is a great model:
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所以，蟻群是很棒的典範--
15:38
you have all these little parts that collectively add up to a great thing.
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聚沙成塔，眾志成城。
15:41
But we know that occasionally ants go astray,
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但有時螞蟻也會走錯方向，
15:45
and what happens is that, if army ants are wandering around and they get lost,
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如果螞蟻發現自己迷路了，
15:49
they start to follow a simple rule --
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他們會做一件最簡單的事--
15:51
just do what the ant in front of you does.
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緊跟在前面那隻螞蟻後面。
15:55
And what happens is that the ants eventually end up in a circle.
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結果，整隊螞蟻繞成了一個圓圈，
15:59
And there's this famous example of one that was 1,200 feet long
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最有名的例子是有一隊螞蟻繞成了一個周長360公尺的圈，
16:03
and lasted for two days, and the ants just kept marching around and around
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他們不停地繞行，一直繞行了二天，
16:07
in a circle until they died.
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直到大家都累死了為止。
16:10
And that, I think, is a sort of thing to watch out for.
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那是我們應該小心避免的事，
16:13
That's the thing we have to fear --
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我們要注意，不要跟著大家轉，
16:15
is that we're just going to keep marching around and around until we die.
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一直繞、一直繞，總有一天我們會累死。
16:19
Now, I want to connect this back, though, to the tsunami,
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讓我們再回過頭來談這次海嘯，
16:22
because one of the great things about the tsunami --
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讓我們來看看這次海嘯為我們帶來什麼偉大的事情--
16:24
in terms of the blogosphere's coverage,
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看看部落格文化對我們的影響，
16:26
not in terms of the tsunami itself --
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而不是只關注海嘯對我們造成的傷害--
16:28
is that it really did represent a genuine bottom-up phenomenon.
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這次的海嘯讓我們看到真正的由下而上堆積出來的成果：
16:32
You saw sites that had never existed before getting huge amounts of traffic.
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那些以前從沒聽說過的網站，現在累積出了巨大的流量；
16:35
You saw people being able to offer up
their independent points of view
their independent points of view
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人們開始能夠以前所未來的獨立見解
16:39
in a way that they hadn't before.
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發表文章；
16:41
There, you really did see the intelligence of the Web manifest itself.
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我們確實在這中間看到了網路的集體智慧。
16:46
So, that's the upside. The circular mill is the downside.
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這些都是部落格文化的光明面，繞圈圈則是其陰暗面，
16:49
And I think that the former is what we really need to strive for.
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我們應該多朝光明面努力。
16:52
Thank you very much. (Applause)
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謝謝！
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
James Surowiecki - Finance journalistJames Surowiecki argues that people, when we act en masse, are smarter than we think. He's the author of The Wisdom of Crowds and writes about finance for the New Yorker.
Why you should listen
James Surowiecki has been reporting on finance and human behavior since the days of the Motley Fool on AOL. He's had a ringside seat for some roller-coaster times in business, but always, his focus has been on regular people -- not titans of Wall Street, but you and me. In 2004, he published The Wisdom of Crowds, an exploration of the hive mind as it plays out in business and in other arenas of life.
Surowiecki is the finance writer for the New Yorker, and writes a lively and funny (and lately, indispensable) blog for newyorker.com, The Balance Sheet. His other books include the wonderfully titled but sadly quite relevant Best Business Crime Writing of 2003.
James Surowiecki | Speaker | TED.com