TEDMED 2018
Daniel Streicker: What vaccinating vampire bats can teach us about pandemics
丹尼尔·斯特里克: 对抗流行病是如何受到吸血蝠疫苗接种的启发？
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我们如何能够预测下一场疾病大爆发？如何在埃博拉之类的病毒袭击人类之前，阻止它的发生？在这个关于科技前沿的演讲中，生态学家丹尼尔·斯特里克（Daniel Streicker）带领我们前往秘鲁的亚马逊雨林。他在那里追踪吸血蝠的活动，以预测和预防狂犬病的爆发。 通过研究这些疾病模式，斯特里克向我们展示了如何学会从根源上遏制下一次疾病大流行。
Daniel Streicker - Animal-borne disease researcher
Daniel Streicker investigates how everyday killer pathogens can provide insight into future outbreaks of infectious disease. Full bio
Daniel Streicker investigates how everyday killer pathogens can provide insight into future outbreaks of infectious disease. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
The story that I'm going
to tell you today,
to tell you today,
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今天我要讲的故事
对于我来说，始于 2006 年。
00:15
for me, began back in 2006.
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00:17
That was when I first heard
about an outbreak of mysterious illness
about an outbreak of mysterious illness
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那是我第一次听到秘鲁亚马逊雨林
00:21
that was happening in the Amazon
rainforest of Peru.
rainforest of Peru.
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正在上演一场神秘疾病的大爆发。
00:24
The people that were getting sick
from this illness,
from this illness,
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因为这个疾病，人们开始感到不适。
00:27
they had horrifying symptoms, nightmarish.
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他们出现了噩梦般的可怕症状；
00:29
They had unbelievable headaches,
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经历着难以忍受的的头痛，
00:31
they couldn't eat or drink.
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难以喝水进食。
00:33
Some of them were even hallucinating --
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他们有的甚至产生了幻觉——
00:35
confused and aggressive.
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变得困惑与激进。
00:36
The most tragic part of all
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最让人心碎的是，
00:39
was that many of the victims
were children.
were children.
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大部分的病患是儿童。
00:41
And of all of those that got sick,
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而且所有这些病患，
00:43
none survived.
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无人幸存。
00:46
It turned out that what was killing
people was a virus,
people was a virus,
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最后事实证明是
一种病毒杀害了那些人，
一种病毒杀害了那些人，
00:49
but it wasn't Ebola, it wasn't Zika,
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但不是埃博拉，也不是寨卡，
00:51
it wasn't even some new virus
never before seen by science.
never before seen by science.
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它甚至不是科学家
前所未闻的新病毒。
前所未闻的新病毒。
00:55
These people were dying
of an ancient killer,
of an ancient killer,
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这些病患的离去
是由一种古老的杀手造成的，
是由一种古老的杀手造成的，
00:57
one that we've known about for centuries.
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一种在几百年前就知晓的的病毒。
01:00
They were dying of rabies.
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病患们死于狂犬病。
01:02
And what all of them had in common
was that as they slept,
was that as they slept,
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他们的一个共同点是，
在睡觉时，都被一种
仅以嗜血为生的哺乳动物给咬了：
仅以嗜血为生的哺乳动物给咬了：
01:06
they'd all been bitten by the only mammal
that lives exclusively on a diet of blood:
that lives exclusively on a diet of blood:
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01:10
the vampire bat.
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吸血蝠。
01:13
These sorts of outbreaks
that jump from bats into people,
that jump from bats into people,
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这类疾病的大爆发
从蝙蝠转移到了人，
从蝙蝠转移到了人，
01:16
they've become more and more common
in the last couple of decades.
in the last couple of decades.
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在过去几十年中已经变得越发普遍。
01:19
In 2003, it was SARS.
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在 2003 年，是非典。
01:20
It showed up in Chinese animal markets
and spread globally.
and spread globally.
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它首现于中国动物市场，并肆虐全球。
01:24
That virus, like the one from Peru,
was eventually traced back to bats,
was eventually traced back to bats,
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那病毒，就像是秘鲁的那个一样，
最终被追溯到蝙蝠，
最终被追溯到蝙蝠，
01:28
which have probably harbored it,
undetected, for centuries.
undetected, for centuries.
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它们可能已经藏匿该病毒
长达几百年，却从未被发现。
长达几百年，却从未被发现。
01:32
Then, 10 years later, we see Ebola
showing up in West Africa,
showing up in West Africa,
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10 年后，我们看到
埃博拉出现在西非，
埃博拉出现在西非，
01:36
and that surprised just about everybody
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这震惊了所有人，
01:38
because, according
to the science at the time,
to the science at the time,
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因为根据当时的科学表明，
01:40
Ebola wasn't really supposed
to be in West Africa.
to be in West Africa.
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埃博拉不应该出现在西非。
01:44
That ended up causing the largest
and most widespread Ebola outbreak
and most widespread Ebola outbreak
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但它却导致了史上
传播最广，规模最大的
传播最广，规模最大的
01:47
in history.
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埃博拉病毒爆发。
01:49
So there's a disturbing trend here, right?
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这是一个令人不安的趋势，对吧？
01:52
Deadly viruses are appearing in places
where we can't really expect them,
where we can't really expect them,
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致命的病毒正出现于
我们无法真正预期的地方。
我们无法真正预期的地方。
01:56
and as a global health community,
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而作为全球健康社区，
01:57
we're caught on our heels.
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我们一直在忙于应对。
01:59
We're constantly chasing
after the next viral emergency
after the next viral emergency
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我们一直在追逐下一个
02:02
in this perpetual cycle,
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病毒带来的紧急情况，
02:04
always trying to extinguish epidemics
after they've already started.
after they've already started.
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总是在疫情已经开始蔓延后，
努力消灭它们。
努力消灭它们。
02:08
So with new diseases appearing every year,
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随着每年新疾病的出现，
02:11
now is really the time
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现在，
真的是需要开始思考
我们能为之做什么的时候了。
我们能为之做什么的时候了。
02:13
that we need to start thinking
about what we can do about it.
about what we can do about it.
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如果我们仅仅等着
下一个埃博拉的出现，
下一个埃博拉的出现，
02:15
If we just wait for the next
Ebola to happen,
Ebola to happen,
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02:18
we might not be so lucky next time.
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那时，我们可能就不会这么幸运了。
02:20
We might face a different virus,
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我们可能面对着一个不同的病毒，
02:22
one that's more deadly,
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一个更加致命的病毒，
02:23
one that spreads better among people,
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一个人类间传播能力更强的病毒，
02:26
or maybe one that just completely
outwits our vaccines,
outwits our vaccines,
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或可能是效力完全胜于疫苗，
02:29
leaving us defenseless.
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让我们束手无策的病毒。
02:31
So can we anticipate pandemics?
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那么我们可以预测疾病大流行吗？
02:34
Can we stop them?
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我们能够阻止它们吗？
02:36
Those are really hard questions to answer,
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这些是非常难以回答的问题，
02:39
and the reason is that the pandemics --
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而其中的原因是大流行——
02:42
the ones that spread globally,
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那些传播于全球的流行病，
02:44
the ones that we really
want to anticipate --
want to anticipate --
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那些我们非常想要去
预测的流行病——
预测的流行病——
02:46
they're actually really rare events.
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它们实际上是罕见事件。
02:48
And for us as a species
that is a good thing --
that is a good thing --
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对于我们，作为一个物种，
是一件好事——
是一件好事——
02:50
that's why we're all here.
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这就是为何我们都在这里。
02:53
But from a scientific standpoint,
it's a little bit of a problem.
it's a little bit of a problem.
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但从科学角度来看，
这是有一些问题的。
这是有一些问题的。
02:58
That's because if something
happens just once or twice,
happens just once or twice,
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因为一件事如果只发生一两次，
那就真的不足以发现任何规律，
03:01
that's really not enough
to find any patterns.
to find any patterns.
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可以告诉我们何时或何地
下一场流行病毒可能发生的规律。
下一场流行病毒可能发生的规律。
03:03
Patterns that could tell us when
or where the next pandemic might strike.
or where the next pandemic might strike.
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03:08
So what do we do?
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那么我们该怎么做？
03:10
Well, I think one of the solutions
we may have is to study some viruses
we may have is to study some viruses
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我认为其中一个解决方案就是，
我们可能可以研究一些
我们可能可以研究一些
03:14
that routinely jump from wild
animals into people,
animals into people,
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常规性从野生动物
传播到人身上的病毒，
传播到人身上的病毒，
03:18
or into our pets, or our livestock,
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或到我们宠物、牲畜的病毒，
即使它们和我们认为
03:21
even if they're not the same viruses
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造成大流行的病毒不同，
03:23
that we think are going
to cause pandemics.
to cause pandemics.
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03:26
If we can use
those everyday killer viruses
those everyday killer viruses
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如果我们可以利用那些日常杀手病毒
03:28
to work out some of the patterns
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来找到一些规律，
03:30
of what drives that initial, crucial jump
from one species to the next,
from one species to the next,
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例如是什么驱动了最初的
病毒的物种间转移，
病毒的物种间转移，
03:34
and, potentially, how we might stop it,
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以及，我们可能如何阻止转移的发生，
03:36
then we're going to end up better prepared
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这样为应对未来
更小概率的物种间转移，
更小概率的物种间转移，
03:38
for those viruses that jump
between species more rarely
between species more rarely
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但对大流行造成更大威胁的病毒，
03:41
but pose a greater threat of pandemics.
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我们将做出更加充分的准备。
03:44
Now, rabies, as terrible as it is,
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然而如此可怕的狂犬病毒，
03:47
turns out to be a pretty nice
virus in this case.
virus in this case.
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事实证明已经是比较“友善”的了。
大家都知道，狂犬病毒多么
令人闻声色变，它是致命的，
令人闻声色变，它是致命的，
03:52
You see, rabies is a scary, deadly virus.
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03:55
It has 100 percent fatality.
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且具有百分百的死亡率。
03:57
That means if you get infected with rabies
and you don't get treated early,
and you don't get treated early,
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这意味着如果你被它感染，
而且没尽早接受治疗，
而且没尽早接受治疗，
04:01
there's nothing that can be done.
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那你就会走投无路。
04:02
There is no cure.
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无药可治，
04:04
You will die.
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你必死无疑。
04:06
And rabies is not just
a problem of the past either.
a problem of the past either.
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此外，狂犬病毒不仅是
一个历史问题。
一个历史问题。
04:10
Even today, rabies still kills
50 to 60,000 people every year.
50 to 60,000 people every year.
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甚至在今天，该病毒每年
仍能杀死 5 - 6 万人。
仍能杀死 5 - 6 万人。
04:16
Just put that number in some perspective.
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换个角度看看这个数字。
04:19
Imagine the whole West African
Ebola outbreak --
Ebola outbreak --
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想象整个西非的
埃博拉疫情爆发——
埃博拉疫情爆发——
04:21
about two-and-a-half years;
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持续了大约 2 年至 2 年半，
04:23
you condense all the people
that died in that outbreak
that died in that outbreak
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把所有在疫情爆发中死亡的人数
压缩到一年。
04:26
into just a single year.
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这听起来蛮糟糕的。
04:27
That's pretty bad.
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04:28
But then, you multiply it by four,
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但你再把这数字乘以 4，
04:30
and that's what happens
with rabies every single year.
with rabies every single year.
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就是每一年狂犬病疫情的情况。
04:35
So what sets rabies apart
from a virus like Ebola
from a virus like Ebola
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让狂犬病毒
有别于埃博拉病毒的是，
有别于埃博拉病毒的是，
04:40
is that when people get it,
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当人们被病毒感染时，
04:42
they tend not to spread it onward.
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往往不会继续传播给其他人。
04:44
That means that every single time
a person gets rabies,
a person gets rabies,
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这意味着每次当一个人
接触到狂犬病病毒，
接触到狂犬病病毒，
04:48
it's because they were bitten
by a rabid animal,
by a rabid animal,
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都是因为他们被
携带狂犬病的动物咬了，
携带狂犬病的动物咬了，
04:51
and usually, that's a dog or a bat.
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通常是狗或蝙蝠。
04:53
But it also means that those jumps
between species,
between species,
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但这也意味着我们
对于那些物种间传播的病毒
对于那些物种间传播的病毒
04:56
which are so important to understand,
but so rare for most viruses,
but so rare for most viruses,
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的理解认知是如此重要，
但对大部分病毒来说却又如此罕见。
但对大部分病毒来说却又如此罕见。
05:00
for rabies, they're actually
happening by the thousands.
happening by the thousands.
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然而对狂犬病毒来说，
物种间传播是非常频繁的。
物种间传播是非常频繁的。
05:04
So in a way, rabies
is almost like the fruit fly
is almost like the fruit fly
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所以从某种程度上，
狂犬病毒就好比果蝇，
狂犬病毒就好比果蝇，
05:08
or the lab mouse of deadly viruses.
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或是携带致命病毒的实验室老鼠。
05:11
This is a virus that we can use
and study to find patterns
and study to find patterns
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这是一种我们可以用来研究
以找寻规律的病毒，
以找寻规律的病毒，
05:15
and potentially test out new solutions.
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有可能帮助我们找到新的解决方案。
05:17
And so, when I first heard
about that outbreak of rabies
about that outbreak of rabies
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所以，当我第一次听到秘鲁亚马逊的
05:20
in the Peruvian Amazon,
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狂犬病大爆发，
05:22
it struck me as something
potentially powerful
potentially powerful
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我惊讶于这潜在的、
如此强大的威力，
如此强大的威力，
05:24
because this was a virus that was jumping
from bats into other animals
from bats into other animals
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因为这是个能够
从蝙蝠转移到其它动物身上的病毒，
从蝙蝠转移到其它动物身上的病毒，
05:27
often enough that we might
be able to anticipate it ...
be able to anticipate it ...
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通常我们可能足以预见它……
05:31
Maybe even stop it.
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甚至可能阻止它。
05:33
So as a first-year graduate student
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因此，作为一个研一学生，
05:35
with a vague memory
of my high school Spanish class,
of my high school Spanish class,
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带着自己模糊的高中西语课记忆，
05:38
I jumped onto a plane
and flew off to Peru,
and flew off to Peru,
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我跳上了飞机，飞往秘鲁，
05:41
looking for vampire bats.
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寻找吸血蝠。
05:42
And the first couple of years
of this project were really tough.
of this project were really tough.
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这个项目的最初几年真的很艰难。
05:48
I had no shortage of ambitious plans
to rid Latin America of rabies,
to rid Latin America of rabies,
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我不乏消灭拉丁美洲
狂犬病毒的雄心壮志，
狂犬病毒的雄心壮志，
05:52
but at the same time,
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但与此同时，
05:53
there seemed to be an equally endless
supply of mudslides and flat tires,
supply of mudslides and flat tires,
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我还不断遇到
无止尽的泥石流和爆胎，
无止尽的泥石流和爆胎，
05:57
power outages, stomach bugs
all stopping me.
all stopping me.
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停电以及胃病，
都在阻碍我的进程。
都在阻碍我的进程。
06:01
But that was kind of par for the course,
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但这在南美洲
06:03
working in South America,
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都是意料之中的，
06:04
and to me, it was part of the adventure.
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与我而言，也是探险的一部分。
06:08
But what kept me going
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让我坚持下去的
06:10
was the knowledge that for the first time,
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是第一次知道
自己手头的工作也许确实能
06:12
the work that I was doing
might actually have some real impact
might actually have some real impact
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在短期对人们的生活产生实际影响。
06:15
on people's lives in the short term.
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06:17
And that struck me the most
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令我最震惊的是，
06:18
when we actually went out to the Amazon
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我们真正步入亚马逊
06:21
and were trying to catch vampire bats.
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并亲自尝试着抓捕吸血蝠。
06:23
You see, all we had to do was show up
at a village and ask around.
at a village and ask around.
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我们要做的就是
去往村庄，四处询问。
去往村庄，四处询问。
06:27
"Who's been getting bitten
by a bat lately?"
by a bat lately?"
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“谁最近被蝙蝠咬了？”
06:29
And people raised their hands,
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之后人们举起他们的手，
06:31
because in these communities,
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因为在这个社区，
06:34
getting bitten by a bat
is an everyday occurrence,
is an everyday occurrence,
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被蝙蝠咬是家常便饭，
06:36
happens every day.
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每天都在发生。
06:38
And so all we had to do
was go to the right house,
was go to the right house,
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所以我们要做的是去正确的家庭，
06:41
open up a net
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布网，
06:43
and show up at night,
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夜间拜访，
06:44
and wait until the bats tried
to fly in and feed on human blood.
to fly in and feed on human blood.
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并等待蝙蝠前来准备吸人血。
06:49
So to me, seeing a child with a bite wound
on his head or blood stains on his sheets,
on his head or blood stains on his sheets,
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对我而言，看着一个孩子
头被咬伤，或他床单上的血迹，
头被咬伤，或他床单上的血迹，
06:54
that was more than enough motivation
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就是能让我忘却任何路途困难
与身体不适的动力，继续工作。
06:56
to get past whatever logistical
or physical headache
or physical headache
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06:59
I happened to be feeling on that day.
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那天碰巧是这样。
07:02
Since we were working
all night long, though,
all night long, though,
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尽管我们经常整夜都在工作，
我仍然会抽时间思考
要如何解决这个问题，
要如何解决这个问题，
07:05
I had plenty of time to think about
how I might actually solve this problem,
how I might actually solve this problem,
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07:08
and it stood out to me
that there were two burning questions.
that there were two burning questions.
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然而在我看来，
尚有两个亟待解决的问题。
尚有两个亟待解决的问题。
07:11
The first was that we know
that people are bitten all the time,
that people are bitten all the time,
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第一个是我们知道人们总是被咬，
07:15
but rabies outbreaks
aren't happening all the time --
aren't happening all the time --
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但是狂犬病并非总是爆发——
07:18
every couple of years,
maybe even every decade,
maybe even every decade,
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每隔几年，甚至可能每隔十年，
07:20
you get a rabies outbreak.
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爆发一次。
07:22
So if we could somehow anticipate
when and where the next outbreak would be,
when and where the next outbreak would be,
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因此，如果我们能够
预测下一次爆发的时间地点，
预测下一次爆发的时间地点，
07:26
that would be a real opportunity,
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那将会是一个极佳的机会，
07:27
meaning we could vaccinate
people ahead of time,
people ahead of time,
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意味着我们可以在
任何人受到疫情折磨前，
任何人受到疫情折磨前，
07:30
before anybody starts dying.
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给大家注射疫苗。
07:32
But the other side of that coin
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但是同时，
07:34
is that vaccination
is really just a Band-Aid.
is really just a Band-Aid.
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疫苗是否只能充当一张创可贴，
07:38
It's kind of a strategy of damage control.
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作为一种控制伤害的策略。
07:40
Of course it's lifesaving and important
and we have to do it,
and we have to do it,
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当然，这能挽救生命，
也很重要，我们要做这件事，
也很重要，我们要做这件事，
07:43
but at the end of the day,
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但归根结底，
07:44
no matter how many cows,
how many people we vaccinate,
how many people we vaccinate,
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不论我们给多少头牛、
多少个人接种疫苗，
多少个人接种疫苗，
07:47
we're still going to have exactly the same
amount of rabies up there in the bats.
amount of rabies up there in the bats.
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蝙蝠身上始终
将携带同样数量的狂犬病毒。
将携带同样数量的狂犬病毒。
07:51
The actual risk of getting bitten
hasn't changed at all.
hasn't changed at all.
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被蝙蝠咬伤的实际风险
并没有任何改变。
并没有任何改变。
07:53
So my second question was this:
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所以，我的第二个问题就是：
07:55
Could we somehow
cut the virus off at its source?
cut the virus off at its source?
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我们能否从源头消灭这些病毒？
07:59
If we could somehow reduce the amount
of rabies in the bats themselves,
of rabies in the bats themselves,
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如果我们多少能降低
蝙蝠自身携带狂犬病毒的数量，
蝙蝠自身携带狂犬病毒的数量，
08:02
then that would be a real game changer.
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这将会真正逆转现状。
08:04
We'd been talking about shifting
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我们一直在说
08:06
from a strategy of damage control
to one based on prevention.
to one based on prevention.
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要从伤害控制转变成预防的策略。
08:10
So, how do we begin to do that?
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那么，我们如何开始做这件事？
08:13
Well, the first thing
we needed to understand
we needed to understand
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第一件我们需要了解
这个病毒是如何
在它的天然宿主——
在它的天然宿主——
08:15
was how this virus actually works
in its natural host --
in its natural host --
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08:18
in the bats.
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即蝙蝠体内生存的。
08:19
And that is a tall order
for any infectious disease,
for any infectious disease,
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这对于任何传染病来说
都是一项艰巨的任务，
都是一项艰巨的任务，
08:21
particularly one in a reclusive
species like bats,
species like bats,
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尤其是对于蝙蝠这样的隐居物种，
08:25
but we had to start somewhere.
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但我们必须找到入手点。
08:28
So the way we started
was looking at some historical data.
was looking at some historical data.
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于是我们最先查看了一些历史数据：
08:31
When and where had these outbreaks
happened in the past?
happened in the past?
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这些大爆发曾经发生在何时何地？
08:35
And it became clear
that rabies was a virus
that rabies was a virus
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我们也逐渐明确了
狂犬病毒必须要
狂犬病毒必须要
08:37
that just had to be on the move.
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不断转移宿主，
它们无法保持不动。
08:39
It couldn't sit still.
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08:41
The virus might circulate in one area
for a year, maybe two,
for a year, maybe two,
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病毒可能在一个地区
传播一年，或两年，
传播一年，或两年，
08:44
but unless it found a new group of bats
to infect somewhere else,
to infect somewhere else,
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除非它能找到新蝙蝠群，
传播到别的地方，
传播到别的地方，
08:47
it was pretty much bound to go extinct.
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否则就会自然灭绝。
08:50
So with that, we solved one key part
of the rabies transmission challenge.
of the rabies transmission challenge.
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根据这点，我们解决了
一个狂犬病毒传播挑战的关键部分。
一个狂犬病毒传播挑战的关键部分。
08:55
We knew we were dealing
with a virus on the move,
with a virus on the move,
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我们知道我们在与
不断转移的病毒打交道，
不断转移的病毒打交道，
08:58
but we still couldn't say
where it was going.
where it was going.
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但我们仍旧不知道
它会传播到哪里去。
它会传播到哪里去。
09:01
Essentially, what I wanted was
more of a Google Maps-style prediction,
more of a Google Maps-style prediction,
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我想要一个类似
谷歌地图的预测图，
谷歌地图的预测图，
09:05
which is, "What's
the destination of the virus?
the destination of the virus?
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能告诉我 “病毒的目的地在哪里？
09:07
What's the route it's going
to take to get there?
to take to get there?
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它们去目的地的路径是什么？
09:10
How fast will it move?"
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速度有多快？”
09:13
To do that, I turned
to the genomes of rabies.
to the genomes of rabies.
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于是我转去研究狂犬病毒基因组。
09:17
You see, rabies, like many other viruses,
has a tiny little genome,
has a tiny little genome,
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狂犬病毒和许多其他病毒一样，
有一个很小的基因组，
有一个很小的基因组，
09:21
but one that evolves
really, really quickly.
really, really quickly.
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但是它进化得非常非常快。
09:23
So quickly that by the time the virus
has moved from one point to the next,
has moved from one point to the next,
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快到在病毒从一个地点
转移到另一个的时候，
转移到另一个的时候，
09:28
it's going to have picked up
a couple of new mutations.
a couple of new mutations.
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它就会经历几次新突变。
09:31
And so all we have to do
is kind of connect the dots
is kind of connect the dots
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因此，我们要做的
09:33
across an evolutionary tree,
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就是连结那些进化树上的点，
09:35
and that's going to tell us
where the virus has been in the past
where the virus has been in the past
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这会告诉我们
这个病毒曾经去过哪里，
这个病毒曾经去过哪里，
又是如何传播的。
09:38
and how it spread across the landscape.
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09:40
So, I went out and I collected cow brains,
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所以我出门收集了牛脑，
09:44
because that's where
you get rabies viruses.
you get rabies viruses.
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因为这是你能找到狂犬病毒的地方。
09:47
And from genome sequences that we got
from the viruses in those cow brains,
from the viruses in those cow brains,
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从牛脑病毒中获取的基因序列中，
09:52
I was able to work out
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我发现
这是一个每年能够
传播 10-20 英里的病毒。
传播 10-20 英里的病毒。
09:53
that this is a virus that spreads
between 10 and 20 miles each year.
between 10 and 20 miles each year.
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09:57
OK, so that means we do now have
the speed limit of the virus,
the speed limit of the virus,
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所以这说明我们
现在有了病毒的传播限速，
现在有了病毒的传播限速，
10:01
but still missing that other key part
of where is it going in the first place.
of where is it going in the first place.
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但依旧缺失其他关键部分，
例如它们首先向什么地方传播。
例如它们首先向什么地方传播。
10:06
For that, I needed to think
a little bit more like a bat,
a little bit more like a bat,
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要解决这个问题，
我需要用蝙蝠的思维来思考，
我需要用蝙蝠的思维来思考，
10:10
because rabies is a virus --
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因为狂犬病毒是一个病毒——
不依靠自身传播，
10:12
it doesn't move by itself,
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10:13
it has to be moved around by its bat host,
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必须围绕在蝙蝠宿主身边，
10:16
so I needed to think about
how far to fly and how often to fly.
how far to fly and how often to fly.
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所以我需要思考这个病毒
传播的距离和频率。
传播的距离和频率。
10:20
My imagination didn't get me
all that far with this
all that far with this
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我的想象力不够回答这些问题，
10:23
and neither did little digital trackers
that we first tried putting on bats.
that we first tried putting on bats.
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我们第一次尝试安装在蝙蝠上的
小型数字追踪器也没有答案。
小型数字追踪器也没有答案。
我们就是无法获取所需信息。
10:26
We just couldn't get
the information we needed.
the information we needed.
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于是，我们转向蝙蝠
交配模式的研究。
交配模式的研究。
10:29
So instead, we turned
to the mating patterns of bats.
to the mating patterns of bats.
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10:32
We could look at certain parts
of the bat genome,
of the bat genome,
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我们观察蝙蝠基因组的特定片段，
10:34
and they were telling us that some
groups of bats were mating with each other
groups of bats were mating with each other
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知道了有些蝙蝠群会相互交配，
10:37
and others were more isolated.
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但是有的比较孤立。
10:39
And the virus was basically following
the trail laid out by the bat genomes.
the trail laid out by the bat genomes.
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狂犬病毒基本上遵循了
蝙蝠基因组的踪迹。
蝙蝠基因组的踪迹。
10:44
Yet one of those trails stood out
as being a little bit surprising --
as being a little bit surprising --
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但其中的一个踪迹与众不同，
10:48
hard to believe.
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令人惊讶且难以置信。
10:50
That was one that seemed to cross
straight over the Peruvian Andes,
straight over the Peruvian Andes,
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那个踪迹似乎径直
跨越了秘鲁安第斯山脉，
跨越了秘鲁安第斯山脉，
10:53
crossing from the Amazon
to the Pacific coast,
to the Pacific coast,
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从亚马逊穿越到太平洋海岸，
10:56
and that was kind of hard to believe,
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这就是我说的
10:58
as I said,
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难以置信，
因为安第斯山脉海拔很高——
大约6700米，
大约6700米，
11:01
because the Andes are really tall --
about 22,000 feet,
about 22,000 feet,
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11:04
and that's way too high
for a vampire to fly.
for a vampire to fly.
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是吸血蝠几乎不可能飞越的高度。
11:08
Yet --
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但是——
（笑声）
11:09
(Laughter)
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当我们仔细观察后，
11:10
when we looked more closely,
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我们看到对于河岸两边
11:11
we saw, in the northern part of Peru,
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11:13
a network of valley systems
that was not quite too tall
that was not quite too tall
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想要互相交配的蝙蝠来说，
11:17
for the bats on either side
to be mating with each other.
to be mating with each other.
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秘鲁北部的一系列
峡谷流域海拔还不算太高。
峡谷流域海拔还不算太高。
11:20
And we looked a little bit more closely --
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我们又观察得更加仔细了一点——
没错，所有那些流域
都有狂犬病毒的传播，
都有狂犬病毒的传播，
11:22
sure enough, there's rabies
spreading through those valleys,
spreading through those valleys,
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11:24
just about 10 miles each year.
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1665
每年 10 英里。
11:26
Basically, exactly as our evolutionary
models had predicated it would be.
models had predicated it would be.
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基本上正如我们
的进化模型预测的那样。
的进化模型预测的那样。
11:30
What I didn't tell you
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我没有告诉你们的
11:31
is that that's actually
kind of an important thing
kind of an important thing
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是这件事的重要性，
11:34
because rabies had never been seen before
on the western slopes of the Andes,
on the western slopes of the Andes,
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因为狂犬病从未在
安第斯山脉的西坡出现，
安第斯山脉的西坡出现，
11:37
or on the whole Pacific coast
of South America,
of South America,
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或是整个南非的太平洋海岸，
11:40
so we were actually witnessing,
in real time, a historical first invasion
in real time, a historical first invasion
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所以我们实际上在亲眼目睹
一场实时的，历史首现的入侵，
一场实时的，历史首现的入侵，
11:44
into a pretty big part of South America,
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2951
对相当大面积南美洲的入侵。
11:47
which raises the key question:
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这就引出了一个关键问题：
11:49
"What are we going to do about that?"
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“我们应该做什么来应对入侵？”
11:51
Well, the obvious short-term
thing we can do is tell people:
thing we can do is tell people:
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我们在短期明确可以做的
就是告诉大家：
就是告诉大家：
11:55
you need to vaccinate yourselves,
vaccinate your animals;
vaccinate your animals;
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你需要给自己接种疫苗，
以及你的宠物也是，
以及你的宠物也是，
11:57
rabies is coming.
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狂犬病毒马上要传播到这里了。
11:59
But in the longer term,
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但是长远来说，
12:00
it would be even more powerful
if we could use that new information
if we could use that new information
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如果能够利用新的研究成果
来阻止病毒入侵，
来阻止病毒入侵，
12:04
to stop the virus
from arriving altogether.
from arriving altogether.
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这会使我们变得更加强大。
12:07
Of course, we can't just tell bats,
"Don't fly today,"
"Don't fly today,"
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当然，我们不能和蝙蝠说：
“今天不要飞。”
“今天不要飞。”
12:11
but maybe we could stop the virus
from hitching a ride along with the bat.
from hitching a ride along with the bat.
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3594
但我们或许可以阻止病毒
在蝙蝠身上的搭便车行为。
在蝙蝠身上的搭便车行为。
12:16
And that brings us to the key lesson
that we have learned
that we have learned
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我们从全球狂犬病毒管理项目中
12:19
from rabies-management programs
all around the world,
all around the world,
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所学到的最重要的一堂课，
12:22
whether it's dogs, foxes,
skunks, raccoons,
skunks, raccoons,
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4390
就是不论狗、狐狸、
臭鼬还是浣熊，
臭鼬还是浣熊，
12:26
North America, Africa, Europe.
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2789
在北美，非洲还是欧洲，
12:29
It's that vaccinating the animal source
is the only thing that stops rabies.
is the only thing that stops rabies.
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动物源的疫苗接种都是
唯一能够消除狂犬病毒的方法。
唯一能够消除狂犬病毒的方法。
12:34
So, can we vaccinate bats?
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那么，我们能给蝙蝠接种疫苗吗？
12:38
You hear about vaccinating dogs
and cats all the time,
and cats all the time,
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你们都听说过给猫狗接种疫苗，
12:41
but you don't hear too much
about vaccinating bats.
about vaccinating bats.
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但是肯定没怎么听过
给蝙蝠接种疫苗。
给蝙蝠接种疫苗。
12:44
It might sound like a crazy question,
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这问题可能听起来有点疯狂，
12:46
but the good news is that we actually
already have edible rabies vaccines
already have edible rabies vaccines
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但有一个好消息，
我们已经有专门为蝙蝠设计的
我们已经有专门为蝙蝠设计的
12:51
that are specially designed for bats.
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可食用狂犬病疫苗。
12:54
And what's even better
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更妙的是，
12:55
is that these vaccines
can actually spread from bat to bat.
can actually spread from bat to bat.
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这些疫苗可以阻止
病毒在蝙蝠间传播。
病毒在蝙蝠间传播。
13:00
All you have to do is smear it on one
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你所要做的就是
将疫苗涂抹在一只蝙蝠上，
将疫苗涂抹在一只蝙蝠上，
13:02
and let the bats' habit
of grooming each other
of grooming each other
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之后让它们
相互梳理绒毛的习惯
相互梳理绒毛的习惯
帮助你完成剩下的工作。
13:05
take care of the rest of the work for you.
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13:07
So that means, at the very least,
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所以这意味着，至少
13:09
we don't have to be out there vaccinating
millions of bats one by one
millions of bats one by one
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我们不需要用小小的注射器
去外面把上百万只蝙蝠
去外面把上百万只蝙蝠
13:12
with tiny little syringes.
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一只只抓来接种疫苗。
13:14
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
13:15
But just because we have that tool
doesn't mean we know how to use it.
doesn't mean we know how to use it.
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但工具的存在并不代表
我们知道如何使用它。
我们知道如何使用它。
13:19
Now we have a whole laundry
list of questions.
list of questions.
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现在我们有一箩筐的问题。
13:21
How many bats do we need to vaccinate?
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我们需要给多少蝙蝠接种疫苗？
13:23
What time of the year
do we need to be vaccinating?
do we need to be vaccinating?
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一年中的什么时候，
我们需要开始接种？
我们需要开始接种？
13:26
How many times a year
do we need to be vaccinating?
do we need to be vaccinating?
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一年总共需要接种几次？
13:30
All of these are questions
that are really fundamental
that are really fundamental
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所有的这些问题都是
开展任何预防接种运动
最基本的问题，
最基本的问题，
13:32
to rolling out any sort
of vaccination campaign,
of vaccination campaign,
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13:34
but they're questions
that we can't answer in the laboratory.
that we can't answer in the laboratory.
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但这些恰恰是我们在实验室中
无法解答的问题。
无法解答的问题。
13:37
So instead, we're taking
a slightly more colorful approach.
a slightly more colorful approach.
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于是，我们正在尝试
一个稍许更加有趣的方法。
一个稍许更加有趣的方法。
13:41
We're using real wild bats,
but fake vaccines.
but fake vaccines.
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使用真正的野生蝙蝠，
但接种的是假疫苗。
但接种的是假疫苗。
13:45
We use edible gels that make bat hair glow
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我们用可食用凝胶使蝙蝠毛发发光，
13:48
and UV powders that spread between
bats when they bump into each other,
bats when they bump into each other,
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以及蝙蝠在彼此碰撞时
能得以传播的紫外光粉末，
能得以传播的紫外光粉末，
13:51
and that's letting us study
how well a real vaccine might spread
how well a real vaccine might spread
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这使我们能够研究真正的疫苗
在这些野生蝙蝠群体中的
潜在的传播有效性。
潜在的传播有效性。
13:54
in these wild colonies of bats.
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13:57
We're still in the earliest
phases of this work,
phases of this work,
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我们依旧处于这个项目的初期阶段，
14:00
but our results so far
are incredibly encouraging.
are incredibly encouraging.
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可至今我们的成果非常鼓舞人心。
14:03
They're suggesting that using
the vaccines that we already have,
the vaccines that we already have,
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结果表明，使用我们已经拥有的疫苗，
14:06
we could potentially drastically reduce
the size of rabies outbreaks.
the size of rabies outbreaks.
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很有可能可以极大地
缩减狂犬病爆发的规模。
缩减狂犬病爆发的规模。
14:10
And that matters, because as you remember,
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这很重要，因为就如刚才所说，
14:13
rabies is a virus that always
has to be on the move,
has to be on the move,
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狂犬病毒是一种
经常需要变换宿主的病毒，
经常需要变换宿主的病毒，
14:16
and so every time we reduce
the size of an outbreak,
the size of an outbreak,
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所以我们每一次对爆发规模的削弱，
14:19
we're also reducing the chance
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都在降低
14:20
that the virus makes it
onto the next colony.
onto the next colony.
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病毒入侵下一个种群的可能性，
14:23
We're breaking a link
in the chain of transmission.
in the chain of transmission.
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都在打破传播链的一个环节。
14:26
And so every time we do that,
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因此每一次，
14:27
we're bringing the virus
one step closer to extinction.
one step closer to extinction.
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我们都让该病毒距离灭亡更进一步。
14:30
And so the thought, for me,
of a world in the not-too-distant future
of a world in the not-too-distant future
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不远的将来，世界将会
永远免于任何狂犬病毒侵扰的想法，
永远免于任何狂犬病毒侵扰的想法，
14:35
where we're actually talking
about getting rid of rabies altogether,
about getting rid of rabies altogether,
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对我来说
是极其鼓舞人心且令人激动的。
14:38
that is incredibly
encouraging and exciting.
encouraging and exciting.
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2071
14:41
So let me return to the original question.
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那么让我回到最初的问题。
14:43
Can we prevent pandemics?
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我们能够预防疾病大流行吗？
14:46
Well, there is no silver-bullet
solution to this problem,
solution to this problem,
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这个问题没有彻底
且完美的解决方案，
且完美的解决方案，
14:50
but my experiences with rabies
have left me pretty optimistic about it.
have left me pretty optimistic about it.
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但是我对于狂犬病毒的经验
让我对这个问题持乐观态度。
让我对这个问题持乐观态度。
14:54
I think we're not too far from a future
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我认为我们离那个未来不是太远，
14:56
where we're going to have genomics
to forecast outbreaks
to forecast outbreaks
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一个利用基因组学预测疫情爆发
14:59
and we're going to have clever
new technologies,
new technologies,
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和拥有智能新技术的未来，
15:02
like edible, self-spreading vaccines,
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例如可食用，可自行传播的疫苗，
15:05
that can get rid of these
viruses at their source
viruses at their source
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能够在这些病毒有机会传播到人类前
15:07
before they have a chance
to jump into people.
to jump into people.
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从根源消灭它们的疫苗。
15:10
So when it comes to fighting pandemics,
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所以当说到对抗疾病大流行，
15:13
the holy grail is just to get
one step ahead.
one step ahead.
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我们离胜利也就一步之遥。
15:16
And if you ask me,
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如果你问我，
15:17
I think one of the ways
that we can do that
that we can do that
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我认为其中一个
能实现这一目标的方法就是，
能实现这一目标的方法就是，
15:19
is using some of the problems
that we already have now,
that we already have now,
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利用一些现在我们
已经知道的问题，
已经知道的问题，
比如狂犬病毒——
15:22
like rabies --
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15:23
sort of the way an astronaut
might use a flight simulator,
might use a flight simulator,
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好比宇航员会用飞行模拟器，
15:26
figuring out what works and what doesn't,
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来摸索什么能起作用，而什么不行，
15:28
and building up our tool set
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并且构建我们自己的工具集，
15:29
so that when the stakes are high,
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这样当我们面临危难时，
15:31
we're not flying blind.
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我们不会盲目飞行。
15:32
Thank you.
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谢谢。
15:34
(Applause)
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（掌声）
Translated by Jiasi Hao
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Streicker - Animal-borne disease researcherDaniel Streicker investigates how everyday killer pathogens can provide insight into future outbreaks of infectious disease.
Why you should listen
Daniel Streicker uses ecology and evolution to reveal, anticipate and prevent infectious disease transmission between species. His research uses a range of approaches including longitudinal field studies in wild bats, phylodynamics, machine learning, metagenomicsand epidemiological modeling. In Peru, Streicker uses bat and virus genetics to connect bats' movements with the spread of rabies virus. With this technique, he and his team are able to forecast outbreaks before they begin, providing valuable lead times for governments to take preventative actions, such as vaccinating humans and livestock ahead of outbreaks.
Streicker is a Wellcome Trust senior research fellow and head of the Streicker Group at the University of Glasgow Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine and the MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research.
Daniel Streicker | Speaker | TED.com