ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Edward Tenner - Historian of technology and culture
Edward Tenner is an independent writer, speaker, and editor analyzing the cultural aspects of technological change.

Why you should listen

Edward Tenner is an independent writer and speaker on the history of technology and the unintended consequences of innovation. He writes for The Atlantic on history and current events, and was a founding advisor of Smithsonian's Lemelson Center, where he remains a senior research associate. He was executive editor for physical science and history at Princeton University Press, he has been a visiting lecturer at Princeton and has held visiting research positions at the Institute for Advanced Study, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and the Princeton Center for Information Technology Policy. He is now a visiting scholar in the Rutgers School of Communication and Information and an affiliate of the Center for Arts and Cultural Policy of Princeton's Woodrow Wilson School.

More profile about the speaker
Edward Tenner | Speaker | TED.com
TED2011

Edward Tenner: Unintended consequences

Edward Tenner談無心插柳

Filmed:
873,460 views

每一樣發明都改變著這個世界--不論是有意識的或無意識的。歷史學家Edward Tenner聊我們「發明的東西」和「其預期成效」之間,無法事先預見的落差。
- Historian of technology and culture
Edward Tenner is an independent writer, speaker, and editor analyzing the cultural aspects of technological change. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:15
I didn't always love unintended意外 consequences後果,
0
0
3000
我並不是一直很喜歡始料未及的後果,
00:18
but I've really learned學到了 to appreciate欣賞 them.
1
3000
2000
但我已經學著欣賞他們了。
00:20
I've learned學到了 that they're really the essence本質
2
5000
2000
我已經學到這是
00:22
of what makes品牌 for progress進展,
3
7000
2000
我們進步的原動力,
00:24
even when they seem似乎 to be terrible可怕.
4
9000
3000
就算這些後果可能是很可怕的
00:27
And I'd like to review評論
5
12000
2000
所以我想要談談
00:29
just how unintended意外 consequences後果
6
14000
3000
這些始料未及的後果
00:32
play the part部分 that they do.
7
17000
3000
是如何扮演它們的角色的。
00:35
Let's go to 40,000 years年份 before the present當下,
8
20000
5000
讓我們回到四萬年前,
00:40
to the time of the cultural文化 explosion爆炸,
9
25000
4000
一段文明爆炸的時間,
00:44
when music音樂, art藝術, technology技術,
10
29000
5000
一段音樂、藝術、科技,
00:49
so many許多 of the things that we're enjoying享受 today今天,
11
34000
2000
這些我們現在所享受的東西,
00:51
so many許多 of the things that are being存在 demonstrated證明 at TEDTED
12
36000
3000
很多在TED被展示的東西
00:54
were born天生.
13
39000
2000
開始的時代。
00:56
And the anthropologist人類學家 Randall蘭德爾 White白色
14
41000
3000
人類學家Randall White
00:59
has made製作 a very interesting有趣 observation意見:
15
44000
3000
觀察到一個很有趣的現象:
01:02
that if our ancestors祖先
16
47000
2000
就是就算我們的祖先
01:04
40,000 years年份 ago
17
49000
2000
在四萬年前
01:06
had been able能夠 to see
18
51000
3000
已經可以看到
01:09
what they had doneDONE,
19
54000
2000
他們做了什麼,
01:11
they wouldn't不會 have really understood了解 it.
20
56000
2000
他們仍然沒有辦法完全瞭解。
01:13
They were responding響應
21
58000
2000
他們只是對著
01:15
to immediate即時 concerns關注.
22
60000
3000
當下的問題做反應。
01:18
They were making製造 it possible可能 for us
23
63000
2000
他們只是想要讓我們
01:20
to do what they do,
24
65000
2000
可以做到他們所做的,
01:22
and yet然而, they didn't really understand理解
25
67000
2000
但他們不完全瞭解
01:24
how they did it.
26
69000
2000
他們是如何辦到的。
01:26
Now let's advance提前 to 10,000 years年份 before the present當下.
27
71000
5000
現在,讓我們來到一萬年前。
01:31
And this is when it really gets得到 interesting有趣.
28
76000
2000
而這會變得很有趣。
01:33
What about the domestication馴化 of grains穀物?
29
78000
3000
穀類是如何被馴化的?
01:36
What about the origins起源 of agriculture農業?
30
81000
3000
農業是如何開始的?
01:39
What would our ancestors祖先 10,000 years年份 ago
31
84000
3000
一萬年前的人
01:42
have said
32
87000
2000
如果有科技評估報告的話
01:44
if they really had technology技術 assessment評定?
33
89000
2000
他們會怎麼說?
01:46
And I could just imagine想像 the committees委員會
34
91000
2000
我可以想像
01:48
reporting報告 back to them
35
93000
2000
委員會向他們報告
01:50
on where agriculture農業 was going to take humanity人性,
36
95000
3000
至少在接下來的幾百年間,
01:53
at least最小 in the next下一個 few少數 hundred years年份.
37
98000
3000
農業如何影響人類
01:56
It was really bad news新聞.
38
101000
2000
這真的是壞消息。
01:58
First of all, worse更差 nutrition營養,
39
103000
2000
第一,較差的營養,
02:00
maybe shorter life spans跨度.
40
105000
2000
有可能會造成較短的生命。
02:02
It was simply只是 awful可怕 for women婦女.
41
107000
2000
對女人來說更是糟糕。
02:04
The skeletal骨骼 remains遺跡 from that period
42
109000
2000
從那段時間留下的骨骸
02:06
have shown顯示 that they were grinding磨碎 grain糧食 morning早上, noon中午 and night.
43
111000
5000
告訴我們他們從早到晚都在磨穀子。
02:11
And politically政治上, it was awful可怕.
44
116000
3000
政治上也很糟糕。
02:14
It was the beginning開始 of a much higher更高 degree
45
119000
3000
那是人群間更加不平等
02:17
of inequality不等式 among其中 people.
46
122000
3000
的開始。
02:20
If there had been rational合理的 technology技術 assessment評定 then,
47
125000
3000
如果當時有很理性的科技評估報告,
02:23
I think they very well might威力 have said,
48
128000
2000
我認為他們很有可能說:
02:25
"Let's call the whole整個 thing off."
49
130000
3000
「讓我們中止這個案子吧。」
02:28
Even now, our choices選擇 are having unintended意外 effects效果.
50
133000
4000
就算是現在,我們的選擇仍然有很始料未及的後果。
02:32
Historically歷史, for example,
51
137000
2000
歷史上,舉例來說,
02:34
chopsticks筷子 -- according根據 to one Japanese日本 anthropologist人類學家
52
139000
3000
筷子--根據日本人類學家
02:37
who wrote a dissertation論文 about it
53
142000
2000
在密西根大學
02:39
at the University大學 of Michigan密歇根州 --
54
144000
2000
寫的研究報告--
02:41
resulted導致 in long-term長期 changes變化
55
146000
3000
已長期性地造成
02:44
in the dentition牙列, in the teeth,
56
149000
2000
日本大眾牙齒中牙列
02:46
of the Japanese日本 public上市.
57
151000
2000
的改變。
02:48
And we are also changing改變 our teeth right now.
58
153000
3000
而且我們現在也正在改變我們的牙齒。
02:51
There is evidence證據
59
156000
2000
這是人類
02:53
that the human人的 mouth and teeth
60
158000
2000
嘴巴和牙齒正在
02:55
are growing生長 smaller all the time.
61
160000
2000
越長越小的證據。
02:57
That's not necessarily一定 a bad unintended意外 consequence後果.
62
162000
3000
那並不表示這個始料未及的後果一定是不好的。
03:00
But I think from the point of view視圖 of a Neanderthal尼安德特人,
63
165000
2000
但我認為以尼安德塔人的觀點來看,
03:02
there would have been a lot of disapproval不贊成
64
167000
2000
他們對於我們現在擁有的切菜器
03:04
of the wimpishwimpish choppers菜刀 that we now have.
65
169000
3000
會有很多不贊成的聲音。
03:07
So these things are kind of relative相對的
66
172000
3000
所以這些事其實是相對的,
03:10
to where you or your ancestors祖先 happen發生 to stand.
67
175000
4000
與你和你的祖先間的關係有關。
03:14
In the ancient world世界
68
179000
2000
在古早時代,
03:16
there was a lot of respect尊重 for unintended意外 consequences後果,
69
181000
3000
大家很尊重這些始料未及的後果,
03:19
and there was a very healthy健康 sense of caution警告,
70
184000
3000
且也有很健康的謹慎感,
03:22
reflected反射的 in the Tree of Knowledge知識,
71
187000
2000
像是智慧樹,
03:24
in Pandora's潘多拉 Box,
72
189000
2000
像是潘朵拉的盒子;
03:26
and especially特別 in the myth神話 of Prometheus普羅米修斯
73
191000
2000
尤其體現在普羅米修斯的神話中,
03:28
that's been so important重要
74
193000
2000
亦是近幾年來
03:30
in recent最近 metaphors隱喻 about technology技術.
75
195000
2000
常被用在科技的隱喻。
03:32
And that's all very true真正.
76
197000
3000
而這些都是真的。
03:35
The physicians醫師 of the ancient world世界 --
77
200000
2000
遠古時代的醫生--
03:37
especially特別 the Egyptians埃及人,
78
202000
2000
尤其是埃及人--
03:39
who started開始 medicine醫學 as we know it --
79
204000
2000
近代醫學的開創者--
03:41
were very conscious意識
80
206000
2000
是非常謹慎地對待
03:43
of what they could and couldn't不能 treat對待.
81
208000
2000
可以治及不可以治的課題。
03:45
And the translations譯文 of the surviving倖存 texts文本 say,
82
210000
5000
而在現存的文本上說到:
03:50
"This I will not treat對待. This I cannot不能 treat對待."
83
215000
2000
「這個我可以治。這個我不能治。」
03:52
They were very conscious意識.
84
217000
2000
他們是非常謹慎的。
03:54
So were the followers追隨者 of Hippocrates希波克拉底.
85
219000
2000
希波克拉底斯的跟隨者也是如此。
03:56
The Hippocratic希波克拉底 manuscripts手稿 also --
86
221000
2000
根據現今的研究,
03:58
repeatedly反复, according根據 to recent最近 studies學習 --
87
223000
3000
希波克拉底斯的手稿一再地提到
04:01
show顯示 how important重要 it is not to do harm危害.
88
226000
3000
不造成傷害是多麼重要的。
04:04
More recently最近,
89
229000
2000
更近一點,
04:06
Harvey哈維 Cushing庫欣,
90
231000
2000
哈維庫欣,
04:08
who really developed發達 neurosurgery神經外科 as we know it,
91
233000
2000
也就是讓神經外科手術發展成現今樣子的人,
04:10
who changed it from a field領域 of medicine醫學
92
235000
3000
一個完全改寫此一醫學領域的人,
04:13
that had a majority多數 of deaths死亡 resulting造成 from surgery手術
93
238000
4000
亦是一個從一開始大部份手術失敗
04:17
to one in which哪一個 there was a hopeful有希望 outlook外表,
94
242000
3000
到後來成為執行手術最有希望成功的人,
04:20
he was very conscious意識
95
245000
2000
他是非常謹慎的,
04:22
that he was not always going to do the right thing.
96
247000
3000
但他不見得每一次都做對了。
04:25
But he did his best最好,
97
250000
2000
但他已經盡力了,
04:27
and he kept不停 meticulous細緻 records記錄
98
252000
2000
他做了非常精細的紀錄,
04:29
that let him transform轉變 that branch of medicine醫學.
99
254000
3000
讓他改寫了醫學中的這個領域。
04:32
Now if we look forward前鋒 a bit
100
257000
3000
讓我們再往前看一點
04:35
to the 19th century世紀,
101
260000
2000
來到十九世紀,
04:37
we find a new style樣式 of technology技術.
102
262000
2000
我們找到科技的新面貌。
04:39
What we find is,
103
264000
2000
我們找到的是,
04:41
no longer simple簡單 tools工具,
104
266000
3000
不再使用簡單的器具,
04:44
but systems系統.
105
269000
2000
而改使用系統。
04:46
We find more and more
106
271000
2000
我們找到愈來愈多
04:48
complex複雜 arrangements安排 of machines
107
273000
2000
以複雜的組合而成的機器,
04:50
that make it harder更難 and harder更難
108
275000
2000
讓我們愈來愈難察覺
04:52
to diagnose診斷 what's going on.
109
277000
2000
到底發生了什麼事情。
04:54
And the first people who saw that
110
279000
2000
第一個發現這個問題的人是
04:56
were the telegrapherstelegraphers of the mid-中-19th century世紀,
111
281000
3000
是十九世紀中葉的電報員,
04:59
who were the original原版的 hackers黑客.
112
284000
2000
也是最早的駭客。
05:01
Thomas托馬斯 Edison愛迪生 would have been very, very comfortable自在
113
286000
3000
愛迪生在現今的軟體公司
05:04
in the atmosphere大氣層 of a software軟件 firm公司 today今天.
114
289000
3000
應該會過得非常非常好。
05:07
And these hackers黑客 had a word
115
292000
3000
而這些駭客
05:10
for those mysterious神秘 bugs蟲子 in telegraph電報 systems系統
116
295000
3000
給那些電報系統中的錯誤取了名字,
05:13
that they called bugs蟲子.
117
298000
2000
就叫作蟲子。
05:15
That was the origin起源 of the word "bug竊聽器."
118
300000
4000
這就是為什麼現在叫這些錯誤「蟲子」。
05:19
This consciousness意識, though雖然,
119
304000
2000
這樣的想法
05:21
was a little slow to seep滲透 through通過 the general一般 population人口,
120
306000
3000
並沒有很快的滲入大眾,
05:24
even people who were very, very well informed通知.
121
309000
3000
就算是那些很有知識的人也沒有特別瞭解到這點。
05:27
Samuel塞繆爾 Clemens克萊門斯, Mark標記 Twain吐溫,
122
312000
2000
Samuel Clemens也就是馬克吐溫
05:29
was a big investor投資者
123
314000
2000
是至少到1918年
05:31
in the most complex複雜 machine of all times --
124
316000
3000
是美國專利局當中
05:34
at least最小 until直到 1918 --
125
319000
2000
最複雜的機器
05:36
registered註冊 with the U.S. Patent專利 Office辦公室.
126
321000
2000
的大投資者。
05:38
That was the Paige佩奇 typesetter排字.
127
323000
2000
那就是派及打字機。
05:40
The Paige佩奇 typesetter排字
128
325000
2000
派及打字機
05:42
had 18,000 parts部分.
129
327000
2000
總共有一萬八千個零件。
05:44
The patent專利 had 64 pages網頁 of text文本
130
329000
3000
專利總共有64頁文字
05:47
and 271 figures人物.
131
332000
4000
和271張圖。
05:51
It was such這樣 a beautiful美麗 machine
132
336000
2000
那是個非常棒的機器,
05:53
because it did everything that a human人的 being存在 did
133
338000
3000
因為它做到一個人在準備模板時做的
05:56
in setting設置 type類型 --
134
341000
2000
所有事情,
05:58
including包含 returning回國 the type類型 to its place地點,
135
343000
2000
包括把模板回覆原樣,
06:00
which哪一個 was a very difficult thing.
136
345000
2000
這是件非常難的事。
06:02
And Mark標記 Twain吐溫, who knew知道 all about typesetting排版,
137
347000
2000
馬克吐溫,這個瞭解所有關於字體模板的人,
06:04
really was smitten重拳出擊 by this machine.
138
349000
3000
非常迷戀這部機器。
06:07
Unfortunately不幸, he was smitten重拳出擊 in more ways方法 than one,
139
352000
3000
不幸的,他不止在一方面的痴戀著這部機器,
06:10
because it made製作 him bankrupt破產者,
140
355000
2000
因為這讓他破產了,
06:12
and he had to tour遊覽 the world世界 speaking請講
141
357000
2000
所以他需要到處去演講
06:14
to recoup補償 his money.
142
359000
3000
才能賺回些錢。
06:17
And this was an important重要 thing
143
362000
2000
這對十九世紀的科技來說,
06:19
about 19th century世紀 technology技術,
144
364000
2000
是件重要的事,
06:21
that all these relationships關係 among其中 parts部分
145
366000
2000
這些不同零件間的關係
06:23
could make the most brilliant輝煌 idea理念 fall秋季 apart距離,
146
368000
4000
可以讓最傑出的想法崩壞,
06:27
even when judged判斷 by the most expert專家 people.
147
372000
2000
就算是最專業的人士來看亦是如此。
06:29
Now there is something else其他, though雖然, in the early 20th century世紀
148
374000
3000
在二十世紀有件事發生了,
06:32
that made製作 things even more complicated複雜.
149
377000
3000
讓整件事變得更複雜了。
06:35
And that was that safety安全 technology技術 itself本身
150
380000
3000
就算是在安全技術上
06:38
could be a source資源 of danger危險.
151
383000
2000
都有可能有危險。
06:40
The lesson of the Titanic泰坦尼克號, for a lot of the contemporaries同時代,
152
385000
3000
鐵達尼號的教訓是
06:43
was that you must必須 have enough足夠 lifeboats救生艇
153
388000
2000
你一定要有足夠載
06:45
for everyone大家 on the ship.
154
390000
2000
全船所有人的救生艇。
06:47
And this was the result結果
155
392000
3000
而這是透過
06:50
of the tragic悲慘 loss失利 of lives生活
156
395000
2000
犧牲那些無法做到救生艇的人
06:52
of people who could not get into them.
157
397000
2000
才得到的結果。
06:54
However然而, there was another另一個 case案件, the Eastland伊斯特蘭,
158
399000
3000
但是,也有另外一個例子。在Eastland,
06:57
a ship that capsized翻船 in Chicago芝加哥 Harbor港口 in 1915,
159
402000
4000
1915年在芝加哥海灣有個滿載的船
07:01
and it killed殺害 841 people --
160
406000
3000
犧牲了841條人命,
07:04
that was 14 more
161
409000
2000
比鐵達尼號
07:06
than the passenger乘客 toll收費 of the Titanic泰坦尼克號.
162
411000
3000
的總人數還多14人。
07:09
The reason原因 for it, in part部分, was
163
414000
2000
這個意外的部份原因是
07:11
the extra額外 life boats that were added添加
164
416000
3000
船上載了太多救生艇,
07:14
that made製作 this already已經 unstable不穩定 ship
165
419000
3000
讓這艘不穩定的船
07:17
even more unstable不穩定.
166
422000
2000
更加的不穩定。
07:19
And that again proves證明
167
424000
2000
這再次證明了
07:21
that when you're talking about unintended意外 consequences後果,
168
426000
3000
在討論始料未及的後果時,
07:24
it's not that easy簡單 to know
169
429000
2000
很難確切知道
07:26
the right lessons教訓 to draw.
170
431000
2000
到底應該要學到什麼。
07:28
It's really a question of the system系統, how the ship was loaded,
171
433000
3000
在這個案例上最重要的是船如何裝載貨物的,
07:31
the ballast壓載 and many許多 other things.
172
436000
3000
壓載量和其他東西的配合。
07:35
So the 20th century世紀, then,
173
440000
3000
所以在二十世紀,
07:38
saw how much more complex複雜 reality現實 was,
174
443000
2000
我們看到現實是多麼複雜的,
07:40
but it also saw a positive side.
175
445000
3000
但是以一個好的方面來看的。
07:43
It saw that invention發明
176
448000
3000
我們看到許多發明
07:46
could actually其實 benefit效益 from emergencies緊急情況.
177
451000
2000
可以在災難中受益。
07:48
It could benefit效益
178
453000
2000
也可以在
07:50
from tragedies悲劇.
179
455000
3000
悲劇事件中受益。
07:53
And my favorite喜愛 example of that --
180
458000
2000
而我最喜歡的例子是--
07:55
which哪一個 is not really widely廣泛 known已知
181
460000
2000
並不是大眾所認為的
07:57
as a technological技術性 miracle奇蹟,
182
462000
2000
科技奇蹟,
07:59
but it may可能 be one of the greatest最大 of all times,
183
464000
3000
但有可能是古今最棒的發明之一,
08:02
was the scaling縮放 up of penicillin青黴素 in the Second第二 World世界 War戰爭.
184
467000
4000
就是在第二次世界大戰盤尼西林的大量生產。
08:06
Penicillin青黴素 was discovered發現 in 1928,
185
471000
3000
盤尼西林在1928年被發現,
08:09
but even by 1940,
186
474000
2000
但一直到1940年
08:11
no commercially商業 and medically醫療 useful有用 quantities數量 of it
187
476000
3000
仍然沒有達成任何商業上或是醫學上
08:14
were being存在 produced生成.
188
479000
2000
的實用量產階段。
08:16
A number of pharmaceutical製藥 companies公司 were working加工 on it.
189
481000
3000
有一些藥廠正在研究這個。
08:19
They were working加工 on it independently獨立地,
190
484000
2000
他們各自對它做研究,
08:21
and they weren't getting得到 anywhere隨地.
191
486000
2000
但他們並沒有發現什麼。
08:23
And the Government政府 Research研究 Bureau
192
488000
2000
然後國家研究組織
08:25
brought representatives代表 together一起
193
490000
2000
將這些藥廠的代表們集合起來
08:27
and told them that this is something
194
492000
2000
跟他們說他們
08:29
that has to be doneDONE.
195
494000
2000
必須做些什麼。
08:31
And not only did they do it,
196
496000
2000
他們不但做到了,
08:33
but within two years年份,
197
498000
2000
且在兩年內,
08:35
they scaled縮放 up penicillin青黴素
198
500000
2000
將盤尼西林從
08:37
from preparation製備 in one-liter一升 flasks
199
502000
3000
一公升燒瓶製備的規模
08:40
to 10,000-gallon-加侖 vats大桶.
200
505000
4000
量產成一萬加侖大桶子的量。
08:44
That was how quickly很快 penicillin青黴素 was produced生成
201
509000
4000
盤尼西林可以這麼快地被生產,
08:48
and became成為 one of the greatest最大 medical advances進步 of all time.
202
513000
4000
而且成為醫學上一個無法取代的進展。
08:52
In the Second第二 World世界 War戰爭, too,
203
517000
2000
同樣在第二次世界大戰,
08:54
the existence存在
204
519000
2000
英國輻射測量中心
08:56
of solar太陽能 radiation輻射
205
521000
2000
測量到
08:58
was demonstrated證明 by studies學習 of interference干擾
206
523000
3000
輻射干擾而證明了
09:01
that was detected檢測 by the radar雷達 stations of Great Britain英國.
207
526000
4000
太陽輻射的存在。
09:05
So there were benefits好處 in calamities災難 --
208
530000
3000
這對災害研究是有益的--
09:08
benefits好處 to pure science科學,
209
533000
2000
對純科學有益,
09:10
as well as to applied應用的 science科學
210
535000
2000
對應用科學有益,
09:12
and medicine醫學.
211
537000
3000
對醫學有益。
09:15
Now when we come to the period after the Second第二 World世界 War戰爭,
212
540000
3000
現在當我們來到第二次世界大戰之後的時代,
09:18
unintended意外 consequences後果 get even more interesting有趣.
213
543000
4000
無心的後果變得越來越有趣了。
09:22
And my favorite喜愛 example of that
214
547000
2000
而我最喜歡的例子是
09:24
occurred發生 beginning開始 in 1976,
215
549000
3000
在1976年初發生的事情。
09:27
when it was discovered發現
216
552000
2000
在那年初
09:29
that the bacteria causing造成 Legionnaires軍團 disease疾病
217
554000
3000
造成發現退伍軍人病的細菌
09:32
had always been present當下 in natural自然 waters水域,
218
557000
3000
一直都存在於自然水中,
09:35
but it was the precise精確 temperature溫度 of the water
219
560000
4000
但在通風、空調系統中,
09:39
in heating加熱, ventilating and air空氣 conditioning空調 systems系統
220
564000
3000
水溫剛好被
09:42
that raised上調 the right temperature溫度
221
567000
4000
加熱至
09:46
for the maximum最大值 reproduction再生產
222
571000
3000
適合讓退伍軍人病菌
09:49
of Legionella軍團菌 bacillus桿菌.
223
574000
2000
可以大量繁殖的溫度。
09:51
Well, technology技術 to the rescue拯救.
224
576000
2000
當然,科技來解決問題。
09:53
So chemists化學家 got to work,
225
578000
2000
所以化學家研究了一下,
09:55
and they developed發達 a bactericide殺菌劑
226
580000
2000
他們發明了一種殺菌劑,
09:57
that became成為 widely廣泛 used in those systems系統.
227
582000
3000
後來在空調系統中被廣泛使用。
10:00
But something else其他 happened發生 in the early 1980s,
228
585000
4000
但在1980年代也發生了一些事情,
10:04
and that was that there was a mysterious神秘 epidemic疫情
229
589000
2000
就是全美國的磁帶播放器
10:06
of failures故障 of tape膠帶 drives驅動器
230
591000
3000
都莫名其妙地
10:09
all over the United聯合的 States狀態.
231
594000
2000
突然不能用了。
10:11
And IBMIBM, which哪一個 made製作 them,
232
596000
3000
製造廠商IBM
10:14
just didn't know what to do.
233
599000
3000
完全不知道該怎麼辦。
10:17
They commissioned委託 a group of their best最好 scientists科學家們
234
602000
3000
他們帶來了一組最好的科學家
10:20
to investigate調查,
235
605000
2000
來研究這個問題,
10:22
and what they found發現 was
236
607000
2000
然後發現
10:24
that all these tape膠帶 drives驅動器
237
609000
2000
這些磁帶播放器
10:26
were located位於 near ventilation通風 ducts管道.
238
611000
3000
都放在通風口附近。
10:29
What happened發生 was the bactericide殺菌劑 was formulated制定
239
614000
3000
事實上是上述殺菌劑
10:32
with minute分鐘 traces痕跡 of tin.
240
617000
2000
會製造微量的錫。
10:34
And these tin particles粒子 were deposited沉積 on the tape膠帶 heads
241
619000
3000
而且這些錫粒子會附著在播放器的磁頭上
10:37
and were crashing轟然 the tape膠帶 heads.
242
622000
3000
讓整個磁頭壞掉。
10:40
So they reformulated重新 the bactericide殺菌劑.
243
625000
3000
所以他們更改了殺菌劑的配方。
10:43
But what's interesting有趣 to me
244
628000
2000
但我覺得這個例子有趣的是
10:45
is that this was the first case案件
245
630000
2000
這大概是第一次
10:47
of a mechanical機械 device設備
246
632000
2000
機械儀器
10:49
suffering痛苦, at least最小 indirectly間接, from a human人的 disease疾病.
247
634000
3000
因為人類疾病而受到損壞。
10:52
So it shows節目 that we're really all in this together一起.
248
637000
3000
所以這告訴我們我們跟這一切都有關。
10:55
(Laughter笑聲)
249
640000
2000
(笑聲)
10:57
In fact事實, it also shows節目 something interesting有趣,
250
642000
3000
事實上,這也告訴我們另一件有趣的事,
11:00
that although雖然 our capabilities功能 and technology技術
251
645000
3000
就是雖然我們的科技
11:03
have been expanding擴大 geometrically幾何,
252
648000
2000
正在以指數成長,
11:05
unfortunately不幸, our ability能力 to model模型 their long-term長期 behavior行為,
253
650000
3000
但不幸的,我們預測長期結果的能力
11:08
which哪一個 has also been increasing增加,
254
653000
2000
卻僅僅以
11:10
has been increasing增加 only arithmetically算術.
255
655000
3000
線性成長罷了。
11:13
So one of the characteristic特性 problems問題 of our time
256
658000
3000
所以我們現今面臨的大問題是
11:16
is how to close this gap間隙
257
661000
2000
要如何縮小
11:18
between之間 capabilities功能 and foresight先見之明.
258
663000
3000
這兩者中間的差距。
11:21
One other very positive consequence後果
259
666000
3000
另外一個二十世紀科技
11:24
of 20th century世紀 technology技術, though雖然,
260
669000
3000
的重要正面結果是
11:27
was the way in which哪一個 other kinds of calamities災難
261
672000
4000
這些災難可以
11:31
could lead to positive advances進步.
262
676000
3000
增進正面的發展。
11:34
There are two historians歷史學家 of business商業
263
679000
3000
在馬里蘭大學的兩個
11:37
at the University大學 of Maryland馬里蘭,
264
682000
2000
商業歷史學家
11:39
Brent黑雁 Goldfarb戈德法布 and David大衛 Kirsch基爾希,
265
684000
2000
Brent Goldfarb和David Kirsch
11:41
who have doneDONE some extremely非常 interesting有趣 work,
266
686000
2000
對歷史上重要的發明
11:43
much of it still unpublished未公佈,
267
688000
3000
做了一些
11:46
on the history歷史 of major重大的 innovations創新.
268
691000
2000
大部份尚未發表的研究。
11:48
They have combined結合 the list名單 of major重大的 innovations創新,
269
693000
3000
他們將史上重要的發明排成一個清單,
11:51
and they've他們已經 discovered發現 that the greatest最大 number, the greatest最大 decade,
270
696000
3000
然後從他們的清單中,
11:54
for fundamental基本的 innovations創新,
271
699000
2000
他們發現最多東西
11:56
as reflected反射的 in all of the lists名單 that others其他 have made製作 --
272
701000
4000
被發明的時代,
12:00
a number of lists名單 that they have merged合併的 --
273
705000
2000
就是在他們清單中最常出現的時代
12:02
was the Great Depression蕭條.
274
707000
3000
是大蕭條時期。
12:05
And nobody沒有人 knows知道 just why this was so,
275
710000
3000
沒有人知道為什麼,
12:08
but one story故事 can reflect反映 something of it.
276
713000
3000
但以下這個故事可以反映這個事實。
12:11
It was the origin起源 of the Xerox複印 copier複印機,
277
716000
3000
就是全錄影印機發明者,
12:14
which哪一個 celebrated著名 its 50th anniversary週年
278
719000
3000
就是去年慶祝了50週年慶
12:17
last year.
279
722000
2000
的那個。
12:19
And Chester切斯特 Carlson卡爾森, the inventor發明者,
280
724000
5000
Chester Carlson,一個發明家,
12:24
was a patent專利 attorney律師.
281
729000
3000
也是一個專利律師。
12:27
He really was not intending打算
282
732000
3000
他事實上沒有很想要
12:30
to work in patent專利 research研究,
283
735000
2000
做專利研究,
12:32
but he couldn't不能 really find an alternative替代 technical技術 job工作.
284
737000
4000
但他找不到其他的工作。
12:36
So this was the best最好 job工作 he could get.
285
741000
2000
這是他能找到最好的工作。
12:38
He was upset煩亂 by the low quality質量 and high cost成本
286
743000
4000
他對現有的影印複製
12:42
of existing現有 patent專利 reproductions複製品,
287
747000
3000
的低品質及高成本感到不滿,
12:45
and so he started開始 to develop發展
288
750000
3000
所以他開始開發一種新的
12:48
a system系統 of dry photocopying複印,
289
753000
3000
影印辦法,
12:51
which哪一個 he patented專利 in the late晚了 1930s --
290
756000
3000
後來他在1930年代得到了專利,
12:54
and which哪一個 became成為 the first dry photocopier複印機
291
759000
4000
也成為1960年
12:58
that was commercially商業 practical實際的
292
763000
2000
第一個有商業價值的
13:00
in 1960.
293
765000
2000
影印機。
13:02
So we see that sometimes有時,
294
767000
2000
所以我們看到,有時候
13:04
as a result結果 of these dislocations錯位,
295
769000
2000
是一些不合適的事情
13:06
as a result結果 of people
296
771000
2000
一些人
13:08
leaving離開 their original原版的 intended career事業
297
773000
3000
沒有做他們原本想做的工作
13:11
and going into something else其他
298
776000
2000
而轉到另外一個領域,
13:13
where their creativity創造力 could make a difference區別,
299
778000
2000
讓他們的創造力可以飛馳。
13:15
that depressions窪地
300
780000
2000
也就是說挫折
13:17
and all kinds of other unfortunate不幸的 events事件
301
782000
3000
或是其它不幸的事件,
13:20
can have a paradoxically自相矛盾 stimulating刺激 effect影響
302
785000
3000
可能會有對創造力
13:23
on creativity創造力.
303
788000
2000
有一些前所未有的啓發。
13:25
What does this mean?
304
790000
2000
這是什麼意思呢?
13:27
It means手段, I think,
305
792000
2000
我覺得我的意思是
13:29
that we're living活的 in a time of unexpected意外 possibilities可能性.
306
794000
2000
我們正生活在一個有許多事無法預測的時代。
13:31
Think of the financial金融 world世界, for example.
307
796000
3000
看看現在的金融界。
13:34
The mentor導師 of Warren養兔場 Buffett巴菲特, Benjamin本傑明 Graham格雷厄姆,
308
799000
3000
Benjamin Graham也就是巴菲特的導師
13:37
developed發達 his system系統 of value investing投資
309
802000
5000
是從1929年經濟危機的損失中
13:42
as a result結果 of his own擁有 losses損失
310
807000
2000
發展出他的
13:44
in the 1929 crash緊急.
311
809000
2000
價值投資理論。
13:46
And he published發表 that book
312
811000
2000
而且他在1930年代早期
13:48
in the early 1930s,
313
813000
3000
發表了這本書,
13:51
and the book still exists存在 in further進一步 editions版本
314
816000
2000
這本書到目前仍然持續改版
13:53
and is still a fundamental基本的 textbook教科書.
315
818000
2000
成為重要的教科書。
13:55
So many許多 important重要 creative創作的 things can happen發生
316
820000
4000
所以說很多的重大創意
13:59
when people learn學習 from disasters災害.
317
824000
3000
可以在人們碰到災難的時候被啓發。
14:02
Now think of the large and small plagues瘟疫 that we have now --
318
827000
4000
現在想想我們遇到的大大小小的災難--
14:06
bed bugs蟲子, killer兇手 bees蜜蜂, spam垃圾郵件 --
319
831000
5000
塵蟎、虎頭蜂、垃圾郵件--
14:11
and it's very possible可能 that the solutions解決方案 to those
320
836000
3000
很有可能這些事情的解決辦法的價值
14:14
will really extend延伸 well beyond the immediate即時 question.
321
839000
3000
遠超過問題本身。
14:17
If we think, for example, of Louis路易 Pasteur巴斯德,
322
842000
3000
舉例來說,如果我們說Louis Pasteur
14:20
who in the 1860s
323
845000
2000
在1860年代
14:22
was asked to study研究
324
847000
2000
被要求
14:24
the diseases疾病 of silk worms蠕蟲 for the silk industry行業,
325
849000
4000
為了絲綢工業研究蠶疾病。
14:28
and his discoveries發現 were really the beginning開始
326
853000
3000
而他的發現事實上是
14:31
of the germ病菌 theory理論 of disease疾病.
327
856000
2000
細菌疾病理論的開端。
14:33
So very often經常, some kind of disaster災害 --
328
858000
3000
所以很多時候,有些災難--
14:36
sometimes有時 the consequence後果, for example,
329
861000
3000
有時候它們的後果,像是
14:39
of over-cultivation過度開墾 of silk worms蠕蟲,
330
864000
3000
大量繁殖家蠶,
14:42
which哪一個 was a problem問題 in Europe歐洲 at the time --
331
867000
2000
也正是那時歐洲的問題--
14:44
can be the key to something much bigger.
332
869000
2000
可以是開啟另外一件更重要的事情的鑰匙。
14:46
So this means手段
333
871000
2000
也就是說,
14:48
that we need to take a different不同 view視圖
334
873000
2000
我們需要以不同的角度
14:50
of unintended意外 consequences後果.
335
875000
2000
來看始料未及的後果。
14:52
We need to take a really positive view視圖.
336
877000
3000
我們需要以一個很正面的態度來看。
14:55
We need to see what they can do for us.
337
880000
3000
我們需要看到他們可以為我們做什麼。
14:58
We need to learn學習
338
883000
2000
我們需要向
15:00
from those figures人物 that I mentioned提到.
339
885000
2000
我剛剛提到的那些人們學習。
15:02
We need to learn學習, for example, from Dr博士. Cushing庫欣,
340
887000
3000
我們需要學習庫欣醫生,
15:05
who killed殺害 patients耐心
341
890000
2000
就是那個在早期
15:07
in the course課程 of his early operations操作.
342
892000
2000
失手殺死病人的醫生。
15:09
He had to have some errors錯誤. He had to have some mistakes錯誤.
343
894000
3000
他必須要犯過錯。他必須有這些失誤。
15:12
And he learned學到了 meticulously精心 from his mistakes錯誤.
344
897000
3000
他很細心地從這些錯誤中學習。
15:15
And as a result結果,
345
900000
2000
結果,
15:17
when we say, "This isn't brain surgery手術,"
346
902000
3000
當我們說:「這不是腦部手術」時,
15:20
that pays支付 tribute to how difficult it was
347
905000
3000
那告訴我們一個人
15:23
for anyone任何人 to learn學習 from their mistakes錯誤
348
908000
2000
要在一個被認為很沒希望
15:25
in a field領域 of medicine醫學
349
910000
2000
的醫學領域中
15:27
that was considered考慮 so discouraging令人沮喪 in its prospects前途.
350
912000
3000
從自我錯誤中學習有多困難。
15:30
And we can also remember記得
351
915000
3000
且我們需要記得
15:33
how the pharmaceutical製藥 companies公司
352
918000
2000
藥廠如何
15:35
were willing願意 to pool their knowledge知識,
353
920000
2000
在緊急事件發生時,
15:37
to share分享 their knowledge知識,
354
922000
2000
將他們所知道的知識
15:39
in the face面對 of an emergency,
355
924000
2000
分享給大家,
15:41
which哪一個 they hadn't有沒有 really been for years年份 and years年份.
356
926000
3000
一件他們幾年來一直沒有做的事。
15:44
They might威力 have been able能夠 to do it earlier.
357
929000
3000
他們有可能可以更早做的。
15:47
The message信息, then, for me,
358
932000
3000
對我來說,
15:50
about unintended意外 consequences後果
359
935000
2000
始料未及的後果的意義是
15:52
is chaos混沌 happens發生;
360
937000
3000
混亂是會發生的,
15:55
let's make better use of it.
361
940000
2000
我們只是要更妥善地運用他。
15:57
Thank you very much.
362
942000
2000
謝謝。
15:59
(Applause掌聲)
363
944000
4000
(掌聲)
Translated by Joan Liu
Reviewed by Oliver Hsieh

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Edward Tenner - Historian of technology and culture
Edward Tenner is an independent writer, speaker, and editor analyzing the cultural aspects of technological change.

Why you should listen

Edward Tenner is an independent writer and speaker on the history of technology and the unintended consequences of innovation. He writes for The Atlantic on history and current events, and was a founding advisor of Smithsonian's Lemelson Center, where he remains a senior research associate. He was executive editor for physical science and history at Princeton University Press, he has been a visiting lecturer at Princeton and has held visiting research positions at the Institute for Advanced Study, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and the Princeton Center for Information Technology Policy. He is now a visiting scholar in the Rutgers School of Communication and Information and an affiliate of the Center for Arts and Cultural Policy of Princeton's Woodrow Wilson School.

More profile about the speaker
Edward Tenner | Speaker | TED.com

Data provided by TED.

This site was created in May 2015 and the last update was on January 12, 2020. It will no longer be updated.

We are currently creating a new site called "eng.lish.video" and would be grateful if you could access it.

If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to write comments in your language on the contact form.

Privacy Policy

Developer's Blog

Buy Me A Coffee