EG 2007
Kevin Kelly: The next 5,000 days of the web
凱文・凱利 (Kevin Kelly) 網路世界的未來五千天
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凱文・凱利 (Kevin Kelly) 在2007年EG會議的演講中說，大家現在所熟悉的萬維網 (World Wide Web)，其實也才不過5000天的歲月而已。那麼未來的5000天，網路會變成什麼樣子呢？
Kevin Kelly - Digital visionary
There may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology. Full bio
There may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
The Internet, the Web as we know it,
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互聯網，又稱網絡，
00:18
the kind of Web -- the things we're all talking about --
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我們所說的網路，
00:21
is already less than 5,000 days old.
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歷史還不到5000天。
00:25
So all of the things that we've seen come about,
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這期間發生的所有事情，
00:29
starting, say, with satellite images of the whole Earth,
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從地球的衛星圖片開始好了。
00:32
which we couldn't even imagine happening before,
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都是你以前無法想像會發生的，
00:35
all these things rolling into our lives,
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這些闖入我們生活的所有東西，
00:39
just this abundance of things that are right before us,
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這些多采多姿的東西，就在我們眼前，
00:44
sitting in front of our laptop, or our desktop.
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在筆記型電腦或桌上型電腦上。
00:46
This kind of cornucopia of stuff
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這樣的東西像聚寶盆一樣，
00:48
just coming and never ending is amazing, and we're not amazed.
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永遠不會停止，真是令人驚訝，但我們好像不覺得驚奇。
00:54
It's really amazing that all this stuff is here.
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真的很神奇，所有東西都在這兒。
00:58
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
00:59
It's in 5,000 days, all this stuff has come.
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在短短5000天之內，所有東西都出現了。
01:03
And I know that 10 years ago,
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如果我在10年前告訴你，
01:06
if I had told you that this was all coming,
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這些東西將要來臨，
01:08
you would have said that that's impossible.
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你會說，這是不可能的。
01:11
There's simply no economic model that that would be possible.
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原因很簡單，沒有任何一套經濟模型能支持它的可能性。
01:16
And if I told you it was all coming for free,
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如果我又說，它會是免費的。
01:18
you would say, this is simply -- you're dreaming.
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你會回答，你在作夢。
01:20
You're a Californian utopian. You're a wild-eyed optimist.
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你是空想家、你狂熱的樂觀主義者。
01:24
And yet it's here.
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然而，它就在這兒。
01:26
The other thing that we know about it was that 10 years ago,
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還有，10年前
01:30
as I looked at what even Wired was talking about,
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我看到 Wired (連線雜誌) 上說，
01:33
we thought it was going to be TV, but better.
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我們認為下一個產物將會是電視，比電視更好的東西。
01:36
That was the model. That was what everybody was suggesting
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它已經是典範，
01:40
was going to be coming.
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所以大家都這麼認為它會來臨。
01:42
And it turns out that that's not what it was.
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結果，它卻不是大家所想像的。
01:45
First of all, it was impossible, and it's not what it was.
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第一、 它是個不可能；第二、它以前沒有發生過。
01:48
And so one of the things that I think we're learning --
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我想我們學到經驗，
01:49
if you think about, like, Wikipedia,
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想想維基百科
01:51
it's something that was simply impossible.
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就是個不可能的例子
01:53
It's impossible in theory, but possible in practice.
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理論上不可行，但實際上卻可行。
01:57
And if you take all these things that are impossible,
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如果你能接受這些不可能，
01:58
I think one of the things that we're learning from this era,
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從這個紀元、從過去10年裡，
02:02
from this last decade, is that we have to get good at believing in the impossible,
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我們學到，我們最好接受不可能的事，
02:06
because we're unprepared for it.
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因為我們還沒準備好。
02:09
So, I'm curious about what's going to happen in the next 5,000 days.
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因此我對於未來5000天感到好奇。
02:12
But if that's happened in the last 5,000 days,
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看看過去5000天發生的事，
02:14
what's going to happen in the next 5,000 days?
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下一個5000天會有什麼事發生呢？
02:17
So, I have a kind of a simple story,
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我有一個簡單的報導，
02:20
and it suggests that what we want to think about is this thing that we're making,
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它提示我們應該好好思考，在下個5000天裡，
02:23
this thing that has happened in 5,000 days --
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我們將製造出什麼，將發生什麼事。
02:25
that's all these computers, all these handhelds,
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藉時，所有電腦、掌上設備、
02:28
all these cell phones, all these laptops, all these servers --
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手機、筆記型電腦、伺服器…等
02:32
basically what we're getting out of all these connections
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簡單地說，所有的連接，
02:36
is we're getting one machine.
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都將形成一部機器。
02:38
If there is only one machine, and our little handhelds and devices
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"唯一"的一部機器，我們的掌上設備，
02:42
are actually just little windows into those machines,
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不過是個小小視窗
02:44
but that we're basically constructing a single, global machine.
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我們正在建造的是一部唯一涵蓋全球的機器。
02:50
And so I began to think about that.
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我發覺到
02:52
And it turned out that this machine happens to be
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這部機器正是人類
02:55
the most reliable machine that we've ever made.
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有史以來創造過、最可靠的機器。
02:58
It has not crashed; it's running uninterrupted.
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它從沒當機，它永不停止運算，
03:00
And there's almost no other machine that we've ever made
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比起我們製造過的任何機器的
03:03
that runs the number of hours, the number of days.
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工作時數、工作天數，都要來得持久。
03:07
5,000 days without interruption -- that's just unbelievable.
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5000天不間斷地運行，真是不可置信。
03:10
And of course, the Internet is longer than just 5,000 days;
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當然 Internet 的歷史超過5000天，
03:12
the Web is only 5,000 days.
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我是指 Web 不過5000天歷史
03:14
So, I was trying to basically make measurements.
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所以我試著測量這部機器，
03:20
What are the dimensions of this machine?
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它到底有多大
03:23
And I started off by calculating how many billions of clicks there are
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我開始計算全世界的電腦上，
03:27
all around the globe on all the computers.
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總共發生幾次滑鼠點擊。
03:30
And there is a 100 billion clicks per day.
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結果是 1天1千億次點擊。
03:32
And there's 55 trillion links between all the Web pages of the world.
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全世界網頁之間有55兆個連結。
03:38
And so I began thinking more about other kinds of dimensions,
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因此，我領悟到它是另一種規模。
03:41
and I made a quick list. Was it Chris Jordan, the photographer,
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我做了一個清單，攝影家克里斯喬丹說過，
03:46
talking about numbers being so large that they're meaningless?
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當數字太過巨大時，就失去意義了。
03:50
Well, here's a list of them. They're hard to tell,
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就是這個清單，不是很好閱讀。
03:52
but there's one billion PC chips on the Internet,
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如果把網路上，所有電腦上的所有晶片都計入的話，
03:56
if you count all the chips in all the computers on the Internet.
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網路上共有10億顆電腦晶片。
03:58
There's two million emails per second.
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每秒有2百萬封電子郵件產生。
04:00
So it's a very big number.
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這是一個極大的數字。
04:02
It's just a huge machine,
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它是一個極大的機器。
04:04
and it uses five percent of the global electricity on the planet.
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它還用掉地球上5%的電力。
04:08
So here's the specifications,
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這是它的明細，
04:09
just as if you were to make up a spec sheet for it:
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如果畫成一張規格表的話，
04:11
170 quadrillion transistors, 55 trillion links,
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它擁有170千兆顆電晶體、55兆個連結，
04:15
emails running at two megahertz itself,
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電子郵件以每秒2百萬赫傳送，
04:17
31 kilohertz text messaging,
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文字簡訊以每秒3萬1千赫傳送，
04:20
246 exabyte storage. That's a big disk.
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擁有 246 exabytes (10的18次方) 儲存空間。這可是一個很大的磁碟。
04:24
That's a lot of storage, memory. Nine exabyte RAM.
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有很多儲存空間，記憶體 (RAM) 為 9 exabytes。
04:27
And the total traffic on this
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它的流量
04:31
is running at seven terabytes per second.
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為每秒7兆位元組(TB)。
04:34
Brewster was saying the Library of Congress is about twenty terabytes.
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Brewster提過，美國國會圖書館擁有大約20兆位元組(TB)的資料。
04:37
So every second, half of the Library of Congress
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也就是說，每秒就有半個國會圖書館
04:40
is swooshing around in this machine. It's a big machine.
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掃過這部機器，這是一部超大機器。
04:44
So I did something else. I figured out 100 billion clicks per day,
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我還發現，1天1千億次滑鼠點擊
04:48
55 trillion links is almost the same
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和55兆個連結，幾乎就是
04:51
as the number of synapses in your brain.
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大腦突觸的數量。
04:53
A quadrillion transistors is almost the same
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1千兆顆電晶體，
04:55
as the number of neurons in your brain.
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幾乎等同於大腦的神經數量。
04:57
So to a first approximation, we have these things --
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這部機器每秒產生
05:00
twenty petahertz synapse firings.
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20千兆赫次突觸激發。
05:02
Of course, the memory is really huge.
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想當然的，記憶空間相當龐大。
05:04
But to a first approximation, the size of this machine is the size --
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從剛剛的數據看來，這部機器的規格、
05:10
and its complexity, kind of -- to your brain.
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與複雜度可以說是，等同於人腦。
05:15
Because in fact, that's how your brain works -- in kind of the same way that the Web works.
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因為人類大腦的運作方式和網路的運作方式差不多，
05:19
However, your brain isn't doubling every two years.
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只不過，人腦不會每2年倍數成長。
05:23
So if we say this machine right now that we've made
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假設這部機器
05:28
is about one HB, one human brain,
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現在等於1個人腦。
05:31
if we look at the rate that this is increasing,
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以它的成長速率，
05:34
30 years from now, there'll be six billion HBs.
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在30年後，它會等於60億個人腦。
05:39
So by the year 2040, the total processing of this machine
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意即，到了2040年，這部機器
05:43
will exceed a total processing power of humanity,
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處理原始資料的能力將超越人類。
05:46
in raw bits and stuff. And this is, I think, where
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我想這就是，
05:49
Ray Kurzweil and others get this little chart saying that we're going to cross.
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以上數值圖表想表達的。
05:54
So, what about that? Well, here's a couple of things.
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所以呢？嗯，還有幾件事，
06:00
I have three kind of general things
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有3件
06:03
I would like to say, three consequences of this.
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我想說是3項推論。
06:07
First, that basically what this machine is doing is embodying.
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第一、這部機器正在實體化
06:12
We're giving it a body. And that's what we're going to do
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在下一個5000天，我們將會
06:14
in the next 5,000 days -- we're going to give this machine a body.
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賦予這部機器一個身體。
06:17
And the second thing is, we're going to restructure its architecture.
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第二、我們將重組它的構造。
06:20
And thirdly, we're going to become completely codependent upon it.
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第三、我們將要完全地與之共存。
06:24
So let me go through those three things.
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讓我一一說明。
06:26
First of all, we have all these things in our hands.
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第一、我們手上握著不少東西裝置，
06:29
We think they're all separate devices,
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我們認為它們是獨立的
06:31
but in fact, every screen in the world
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但事實上，世界上
06:34
is looking into the one machine.
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所有的螢幕都進入這一部機器查詢。
06:37
These are all basically portals into that one machine.
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基本上，這些螢幕是入口。
06:40
The second thing is that -- some people call this the cloud,
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第二、人們所說的雲端運算。
06:44
and you're kind of touching the cloud with this.
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你得以接觸網路(cloud)。
06:46
And so in some ways, all you really need is a cloudbook.
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只需要一台cloudbook，
06:50
And the cloudbook doesn't have any storage.
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上面沒有任何儲存空間，
06:53
It's wireless. It's always connected.
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永遠保持無線上網。
06:56
There's many things about it. It becomes very simple,
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結構非常簡單。
06:58
and basically what you're doing is you're just touching the machine,
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基本上，你只要觸摸這部機器，
07:00
you're touching the cloud and you're going to compute that way.
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觸摸網路 (cloud) 就能進行運算，
07:03
So the machine is computing.
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這部機器就會計算。
07:05
And in some ways, it's sort of back
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有點像是回到
07:06
to the kind of old idea of centralized computing.
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從前的中央電腦概念。
07:09
But everything, all the cameras, and the microphones,
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而且所有東西，所有攝影機、麥克風、
07:13
and the sensors in cars
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汽車感應器等等，
07:17
and everything is connected to this machine.
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都連接到這部機器。
07:19
And everything will go through the Web.
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每一樣都會經過網路。
07:21
And we're seeing that already with, say, phones.
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我們已經使用手機連線，
07:23
Right now, phones don't go through the Web,
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現在手機還沒經過web，
07:25
but they are beginning to, and they will.
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但它們將要，也一定會經過網路。
07:28
And if you imagine what, say, just as an example, what Google Labs has
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你可以想像以 Google 實驗室 (Google Lab) 為例，
07:32
in terms of experiments with Google Docs, Google Spreadsheets, blah, blah, blah --
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Google文件、Google試算表等等，
07:36
all these things are going to become Web based.
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這些東西都將建立於網路之上。
07:39
They're going through the machine.
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它們都會經過這部機器。
07:41
And I am suggesting that every bit will be owned by the Web.
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我想每一個位元都將屬於網路。
07:46
Right now, it's not. If you do spreadsheets and things at work,
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現在還不是這樣，如果你製作一些試算表
07:49
a Word document, they aren't on the Web,
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和文件等等，它們還不在網站上，
07:52
but they are going to be. They're going to be part of this machine.
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但它們將會。它們會成為這部機器的一部份。
07:54
They're going to speak the Web language.
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它們會使用網站語言。
07:56
They're going to talk to the machine.
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它們會和這部機器交談。
07:58
The Web, in some sense, is kind of like a black hole
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網路就像黑洞，
08:01
that's sucking up everything into it.
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把一切都吸進去。
08:04
And so every thing will be part of the Web.
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每一件東西都成為網路的一部份。
08:08
So every item, every artifact that we make, will have embedded in it
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將來我們製造的每一件東西，
08:13
some little sliver of Web-ness and connection,
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都會嵌入一片小小的網路連結器，
08:16
and it will be part of this machine,
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每件東西都將成為這機器的一部份。
08:18
so that our environment -- kind of in that ubiquitous computing sense --
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這機器會無時無刻地運算，
08:21
our environment becomes the Web. Everything is connected.
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我們的周遭變成網路，每一樣東西都互相連結。
08:26
Now, with RFIDs and other things -- whatever technology it is,
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現在，我們使用無線射頻辨識系統(RFID)
08:29
it doesn't really matter. The point is that everything
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但用什麼技術都無妨，重點是，
08:32
will have embedded in it some sensor connecting it to the machine,
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每一樣東西都將內建連結到這部機器，
08:35
and so we have, basically, an Internet of things.
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基本上，我們將擁有 "Internet of Things" (實物的網際網路)
08:38
So you begin to think of a shoe as a chip with heels,
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你可以這麼想，鞋子是有鞋跟的晶片；
08:42
and a car as a chip with wheels,
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車子是有輪子的晶片。
08:45
because basically most of the cost of manufacturing cars
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車子的大半成本將來自於
08:48
is the embedded intelligence and electronics in it, and not the materials.
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它內嵌的智慧和電子設備，而不是原物料。
08:54
A lot of people think about the new economy
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很多人認為新的經濟結構
08:56
as something that was going to be a disembodied,
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將會是脫離現實的，
08:58
alternative, virtual existence,
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另一種形式的虛擬存在，
09:01
and that we would have the old economy of atoms.
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過去的經濟結構是原子。
09:04
But in fact, what the new economy really is
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但事實上，新的經濟結構應該是
09:07
is the marriage of those two, where we embed the information,
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這兩種的結合，我們把資訊
09:11
and the digital nature of things into the material world.
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和數位格式的東西放入物質世界。
09:13
That's what we're looking forward to. That is where we're going --
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這才是我們期待的。這才是我們
09:17
this union, this convergence of the atomic and the digital.
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我們前進的目標，是一個結合一個原子與數位的轉化。
09:24
And so one of the consequences of that, I believe,
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所以我相信結論會是，
09:26
is that where we have this sort of spectrum of media right now --
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現有的媒體、
09:30
TV, film, video -- that basically becomes one media platform.
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電視、電影、錄像等等，將會轉變成一種平台。
09:33
And while there's many differences in some senses,
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無論它們之間有多少差異，
09:35
they will share more and more in common with each other.
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在某種程度上，它們會擁有愈來愈多的共同點。
09:38
So that the laws of media, such as the fact that copies have no value,
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所以一些媒體定律像是："複製沒有價值"，
09:43
the value's in the uncopiable things,
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"價值來自無法複製的東西"，
09:45
the immediacy, the authentication, the personalization.
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像是即時性、認證、個人化
09:50
The media wants to be liquid.
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"媒體希望能流通"，
09:53
The reason why things are free is so that you can manipulate them,
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它們之所以是自由的，是為了讓你能任意使用，
09:56
not so that they are "free" as in "beer," but "free" as in "freedom."
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在此free不是指"免費"使用，而是指"自由"使用。
10:00
And the network effects rule,
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還有 "網路效應規則"，
10:02
meaning that the more you have, the more you get.
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意思是，愈多人使用，價值愈高。
10:04
The first fax machine -- the person who bought the first fax machine
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舉例來說，第一台傳真機，買下第一台傳真機的人
10:07
was an idiot, because there was nobody to fax to.
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是笨蛋嗎？因為沒有其他人可以接收傳真呀！
10:12
But here she became an evangelist, recruiting others
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於是他/她成為一個傳播者，號召其他人
10:16
to get the fax machines because it made their purchase more valuable.
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也購買傳真機，因為這樣就能使傳真機更有價值。
10:19
Those are the effects that we're going to see.
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這些就是我們將要看到的影響力。
10:21
Attention is the currency.
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"注意力就是貨幣"。
10:23
So those laws are going to kind of spread throughout all media.
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這些定律將會遍布所有媒體。
10:28
And the other thing about this embodiment
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另一件關於實體化的事是，
10:30
is that there's kind of what I call the McLuhan reversal.
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類似我們說的，麥克盧漢轉化。
10:33
McLuhan was saying, "Machines are the extensions of the human senses."
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他說，機器是人類感官(意識)的延伸。
10:35
And I'm saying, "Humans are now going to be
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但我說，某種程度上人類將成為
10:37
the extended senses of the machine," in a certain sense.
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機器的延伸感官(意識)。
10:40
So we have a trillion eyes, and ears, and touches,
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因此，透過所有數位相片和相機，
10:44
through all our digital photographs and cameras.
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我們擁有1兆隻眼睛、耳朵和觸覺。
10:47
And we see that in things like Flickr,
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就像 Flickr
10:52
or Photosynth, this program from Microsoft
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或Photosynth，一款微軟出品的程式，
10:55
that will allow you to assemble a view of a touristy place
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可以將上千張遊客們拍下的相片，
10:59
from the thousands of tourist snapshots of it.
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拼貼(還原)成景點的樣貌。
11:03
In a certain sense, the machine is seeing through the pixels of individual cameras.
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某種程度上來說，這部機器正看著，每一台相機的每一個畫素。
11:09
Now, the second thing that I want to talk about was this idea of restructuring,
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第二、我想談談重建的概念，
11:13
that what the Web is doing is restructuring.
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web正在重建。
11:15
And I have to warn you, that what we'll talk about is --
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我先聲明，接下來
11:17
I'm going to give my explanation of a term you're hearing, which is a "semantic Web."
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我要為語意網(semantic web)下個人的解釋。
11:21
So first of all, the first stage that we've seen
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第一階段，我們過去看到的
11:24
of the Internet was that it was going to link computers.
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Internet，是把電腦連結起來。
11:27
And that's what we called the Net; that was the Internet of nets.
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也就是我們說的網絡，
11:30
And we saw that, where you have all the computers of the world.
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那是"Internet of Net"(網的網際網路)。
11:33
And if you remember, it was a kind of green screen with cursors,
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如果你還記得當時的電腦，螢幕上都是綠色的字還有游標，
11:37
and there was really not much to do, and if you wanted to connect it,
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不能做太多事，如果想要連結，
11:39
you connected it from one computer to another computer.
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就要從一台電腦連到另一台電腦
11:42
And what you had to do was -- if you wanted to participate in this,
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如果想要參與，
11:44
you had to share packets of information.
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就要分享一份資料封包。
11:48
So you were forwarding on. You didn't have control.
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然後往前傳遞，你不能控制什麼，
11:50
It wasn't like a telephone system where you had control of a line:
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不像電話系統，你可以控制電話的另一端，
11:52
you had to share packets.
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你只是分享封包。
11:54
The second stage that we're in now is the idea of linking pages.
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第二階段，也就是現在是連結網頁的概念。
11:59
So in the old one, if I wanted to go on to an airline Web page,
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過去，如果要到航空公司的網頁，
12:02
I went from my computer, to an FTP site, to another airline computer.
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我得先從自己的電腦連到FTP站，再連到航空公司的電腦。
12:06
Now we have pages -- the unit has been resolved into pages,
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現在，我們有網頁，單位變成網頁
12:11
so one page links to another page.
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從一頁連到其他頁。
12:13
And if I want to go in to book a flight,
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如果我想訂機位，
12:16
I go into the airline's flight page, the website of the airline,
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就連到航班的頁面，航空公司的網站，
12:21
and I'm linking to that page.
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我們之間分享的就是連結。
12:23
And what we're sharing were links, so you had to be kind of open with links.
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你得打開連結。
12:27
You couldn't deny -- if someone wanted to link to you,
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你不能拒絕連結過來的人，
12:29
you couldn't stop them. You had to participate in this idea
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無法阻止，你得參與這個概念，
12:33
of opening up your pages to be linked by anybody.
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就是打開你的頁面，讓任何人都能連進來。
12:36
So that's what we were doing.
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這就是我們現在做的。
12:38
We're now entering to the third stage, which is what I'm talking about,
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現在我們要進入第三階段，
12:42
and that is where we link the data.
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我們連結資料的地方。
12:44
So, I don't know what the name of this thing is.
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我不知道這個東西的名字，
12:46
I'm calling it the one machine. But we're linking data.
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先叫它 the one machine，我們開始連結資料。
12:48
So we're going from machine to machine,
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從機器連結機器
12:50
from page to page, and now data to data.
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到網頁連結網頁，現在是資料連結資料。
12:52
So the difference is, is that rather than linking from page to page,
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不同點在於，現在我們並非連結頁面，
12:56
we're actually going to link from one idea on a page
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而是連結網頁上的一個概念
13:00
to another idea, rather than to the other page.
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到另一個概念，而不是連到另一個網頁。
13:02
So every idea is basically being supported --
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所以基本上，每一個概念
13:05
or every item, or every noun -- is being supported by the entire Web.
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或每一個項目或每一個名詞，都被整個網路所支援。
13:08
It's being resolved at the level of items, or ideas, or words, if you want.
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它已經能解析到項目或概念或單字的程度，
13:14
So besides physically coming out again into this idea
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它除了從概念裡走出來之外，
13:18
that it's not just virtual, it's actually going out to things.
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它不再只是虛擬，它會實際地連結到物件。
13:22
So something will resolve down to the information
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它會一直向下解析
13:25
about a particular person, so every person will have a unique ID.
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析到一個人的資訊，每一個人都有一個獨一無二的識別ID。
13:29
Every person, every item will have a something
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每一個物件都
13:31
that will be very specific, and will link
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有明確的識別，而且會被連結到
13:33
to a specific representation of that idea or item.
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它特定的表徵。
13:37
So now, in this new one, when I link to it,
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所以在這個階段裡，我可以連結到
13:40
I would link to my particular flight, my particular seat.
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特定的航班、特色的座位，
13:46
And so, giving an example of this thing,
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舉例來說，
13:49
I live in Pacifica, rather than -- right now Pacifica
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我住在Pacifica，
13:51
is just sort of a name on the Web somewhere.
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它不過是web上的一個名字。
13:54
The Web doesn't know that that is actually a town,
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web並不知道它是一個城市，
13:56
and that it's a specific town that I live in,
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且正是我住的地方。
13:58
but that's what we're going to be talking about.
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但這正是我們即將要提到的。
14:01
It's going to link directly to --
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它將會直接連結，
14:03
it will know, the Web will be able to read itself
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網路將能夠自行解讀。
14:06
and know that that actually is a place,
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它會知道這是個地名，
14:08
and that whenever it sees that word, "Pacifica,"
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以後只要看到Pacifica，
14:10
it knows that it actually has a place,
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它就知道這是一個地方，
14:11
latitude, longitude, a certain population.
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還知道緯度、經度、人口數等資訊。
14:14
So here are some of the technical terms, all three-letter things,
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這裡有幾個科技名詞，都由3個字母組成。
14:17
that you'll see a lot more of.
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你應該還看過更多。
14:19
All these things are about enabling this idea of linking to the data.
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這些東西都與實現"資料連結"的概念有關。
14:24
So I'll give you one kind of an example.
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我要舉一個例子，
14:27
There's like a billion social sites on the Web.
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網路上有10億個社群網站。
14:31
Each time you go into there, you have to tell it again who you are
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你每進一個就要再寫一次你的資料，你是某某某，
14:34
and all your friends are.
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你的朋友有誰誰誰。
14:35
Why should you be doing that? You should just do that once,
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為什麼要這麼做？應該做一次就行了。
14:37
and it should know who all your friends are.
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它就應該要知道你的所有朋友。
14:40
So that's what you want, is all your friends are identified,
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這就你要的，所有朋友都能辨識出來，
14:42
and you should just carry these relationships around.
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你就可以把人際關係帶著走。
14:44
All this data about you should just be conveyed,
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所有關於你的資料都應該要被傳遞，
14:47
and you should do it once and that's all that should happen.
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你只需要做一次，就這樣。
14:50
And you should have all the networks
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你應該要有這些資料之間的關係網絡。
14:52
of all the relationships between those pieces of data.
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這些資料之間的關係網絡。
14:54
That's what we're moving into -- where it sort of knows these things down to that level.
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這是我們的下一步，網路要能理解到這種程度。
14:59
A semantic Web, Web 3.0, giant global graph --
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Semantic Web(語意網)、Web 3.0、Giant Global Graph
15:02
we're kind of trying out what we want to call this thing.
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我們還在思考該怎麼稱呼它。
15:05
But what's it's doing is sharing data.
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它主要是分享資料。
15:07
So you have to be open to having your data shared, which is a much bigger step
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所以你要開放你的資料，
15:12
than just sharing your Web page, or your computer.
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比起分享網頁或電腦，對人類而言是很大的一步。
15:14
And all these things that are going to be on this
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上面的東西，
15:18
are not just pages, they are things.
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不只是網頁而是物件。
15:21
Everything we've described, every artifact or place,
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所有談論的東西、所有產品、所有地點
15:25
will be a specific representation,
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都會是一個特定的表徵，
15:27
will have a specific character that can be linked to directly.
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都會有一個特定的字符讓我們直接連結，
15:32
So we have this database of things.
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我們會有一個"物品資料庫"。
15:34
And so there's actually a fourth thing that we have not get to,
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事實上，還有第四階段，是我們還沒有到達的，
15:38
that we won't see in the next 10 years, or 5,000 days,
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即使在下一個5000天 或下一個10年，也都還看不到。
15:40
but I think that's where we're going to. And as the Internet of things --
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不過我想我們終將走到"Internet of Things"的階段。
15:45
where I'm linking directly to the particular things of my seat on the plane --
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我可以直接連結到我的機位的景象，
15:49
that that physical thing becomes part of the Web.
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這樣實際的東西會成為網路的一部份。
15:52
And so we are in the middle of this thing
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所以，我們處在一個
15:54
that's completely linked, down to every object
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"完全連結"的世界，
15:57
in the little sliver of a connection that it has.
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每一個物件都內嵌連結。
15:59
So, the last thing I want to talk about is this idea
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最後一個概念是，
16:01
that we're going to be codependent.
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相互依存。
16:04
It's always going to be there, and the closer it is, the better.
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它永遠都在，愈近愈好。
16:08
If you allow Google to, it will tell you your search history.
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如果你授權Google，它可以給你，你的搜尋記錄。
16:11
And I found out by looking at it
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我看著搜尋記錄，
16:13
that I search most at 11 o'clock in the morning.
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發現今早11點我查了不少東西。
16:16
So I am open, and being transparent to that.
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原來我是開放的，我是透明的。
16:19
And I think total personalization in this new world will require total transparency.
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我想在這個新世界裡，完全地個人化，需要你全然地透明。
16:25
That is going to be the price.
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那將付出代價。
16:27
If you want to have total personalization,
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如果你要完全地個人化，
16:28
you have to be totally transparent.
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你將需要全然地透明。
16:30
Google. I can't remember my phone number, I'll just ask Google.
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如果忘記自己的電話號碼，我可以查Google。
16:33
We're so dependent on this that I have now gotten to the point
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我們是多麼的依賴它，我們還沒走到這一步。
16:35
where I don't even try to remember things --
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不過哪天我或許不再需要記住任何事。
16:37
I'll just Google it. It's easier to do that.
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我只要查Google就好了。簡單多了。
16:39
And we kind of object at first, saying, "Oh, that's awful."
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我們或許會反感，會說"那真糟"。
16:42
But if we think about the dependency that we have on this other technology,
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但想想，我們不也依賴著
16:45
called the alphabet, and writing,
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字母和書寫？
16:47
we're totally dependent on it, and it's transformed culture.
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我們完全地依賴它們，這不過是種轉變。
16:50
We cannot imagine ourselves without the alphabet and writing.
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我們無法想像沒有字母和書寫的日子。
16:54
And so in the same way, we're going to not imagine ourselves
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同樣的，我們無法想像
16:57
without this other machine being there.
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沒有這部機器。
16:59
And what is happening with this is
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它正在發展一種
17:02
some kind of AI, but it's not the AI in conscious AI,
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人工智慧，並不是擁有個人意識的人工智慧。
17:04
as being an expert, Larry Page told me
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這是Larry Page(賴瑞佩吉，Google的創辦人)告訴我的，
17:07
that that's what they're trying to do,
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這是他們正在努力的方向。
17:08
and that's what they're trying to do.
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這是他們正在努力的方向。
17:10
But when six billion humans are Googling,
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但是，當60億人同時搜尋時，
17:13
who's searching who? It goes both ways.
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是誰在查誰呢？是雙向的。
17:15
So we are the Web, that's what this thing is.
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意即，我們就是web。這就是真相。
17:19
We are going to be the machine.
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我們將會成為這部機器。
17:21
So the next 5,000 days, it's not going to be the Web and only better.
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所以，在下一個5000天，它不會是web，而會是某個更好的東西。
17:26
Just like it wasn't TV and only better.
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就像web是比電視更好的東西。
17:28
The next 5,000 days, it's not just going to be the Web
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在下一個5000天，它不會是web，
17:31
but only better -- it's going to be something different.
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而會是某個更好的東西，它會是個不一樣的東西。
17:33
And I think it's going to be smarter.
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我想，它會更聰明，它會有智慧。
17:37
It'll have an intelligence in there, that's not, again, conscious.
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不是擁有個人意識的人工智慧，
17:41
But it'll anticipate what we're doing, in a good sense.
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而是能在合理的範圍內預測我們的行為。
17:45
Secondly, it's become much more personalized.
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第二、它會更加個人化。
17:48
It will know us, and that's good.
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它會瞭解我們，這是好事。
17:50
And again, the price of that will be transparency.
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但代價是，我們必須透明化。
17:54
And thirdly, it's going to become more ubiquitous
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第三、它會更無所不在，
17:56
in terms of filling your entire environment, and we will be in the middle of it.
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充斥四周，我們身在其中。
18:01
And all these devices will be portals into that.
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我們手上的裝置會是進入它的入口。
18:04
So the single idea that I wanted to leave with you
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我要給你們的一個觀念就是，
18:07
is that we have to begin to think about this as not just "the Web, only better,"
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我們必須開始瞭解它不會是web，而會是某個更好的東西，
18:13
but a new kind of stage in this development.
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一個全新的階段和發展，
18:16
It looks more global. If you take this whole thing,
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更全球化
18:19
it is a very big machine, very reliable machine,
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它是個極大的機器，非常可靠，
18:22
more reliable than its parts.
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比它自己的零件可靠，
18:24
But we can also think about it as kind of a large organism.
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可以把它想做是一個巨大的有機體。
18:27
So we might respond to it more as if this was a whole system,
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我們可以與之互動，它甚至超越一個系統，
18:32
more as if this wasn't a large organism
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超越一個與我們互動的巨大有機體，
18:34
that we are going to be interacting with. It's a "One."
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它是 the ONE。
18:38
And I don't know what else to call it, than the One.
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除了 the ONE，我不知道還能怎麼稱呼它。
18:41
We'll have a better word for it.
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我們終會給它一個更好的名字。
18:42
But there's a unity of some sort that's starting to emerge.
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重點是，它漸漸形成一種單一性。
18:45
And again, I don't want to talk about consciousness,
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再次強調，我不是談論個人意識，
18:48
I want to talk about it just as if it was a little bacteria,
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我把它看做像細菌
18:50
or a volvox, which is what that organism is.
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或團藻的東西，也就是我所說的有機體物質。
18:53
So, to do, action, take-away. So, here's what I would say:
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最後，我留下幾個字給大家：
18:59
there's only one machine, and the Web is its OS.
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"世上只有一部機器，web是它的作業系統"
19:03
All screens look into the One. No bits will live outside the Web.
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"所有螢幕都通向它，每個位元都在其中"
19:07
To share is to gain. Let the One read it.
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"分享就能獲得，讓 the ONE 看懂"
19:11
It's going to be machine-readable.
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你會弄些這部機器
19:12
You want to make something that the machine can read.
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看得懂的東西。
19:15
And the One is us. We are in the One.
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"the ONE 就是我們，我們就是 the ONE"
19:20
I appreciate your time.
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謝謝你們的聆聽
19:22
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kevin Kelly - Digital visionaryThere may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology.
Why you should listen
Kelly has been publisher of the Whole Earth Review, executive editor at Wired magazine (which he co-founded, and where he now holds the title of Senior Maverick), founder of visionary nonprofits and writer on biology, business and “cool tools.” He’s renounced all material things save his bicycle (which he then rode 3,000 miles), founded an organization (the All-Species Foundation) to catalog all life on Earth, championed projects that look 10,000 years into the future (at the Long Now Foundation), and more. He’s admired for his acute perspectives on technology and its relevance to history, biology and society. His new book, The Inevitable, just published, explores 12 technological forces that will shape our future.
Kevin Kelly | Speaker | TED.com