EG 2007
Kevin Kelly: The next 5,000 days of the web
Kevin Kelly web-aren urrengo 5000 egunei buruz
Filmed:
Readability: 3.3
1,751,618 views
2007ko EG konferentzian, Kevin Kelly-k estatistika bitxi bat zabaltzen du: "World Wide Web"-ak, guk ezagutzen dugun bezala, 5,000 egun ditu. Orain, Kelly-k galdetzen du, nola aurrikusi dezakegu zer datorkigun datozen 5,000 egunetan ?
Kevin Kelly - Digital visionary
There may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology. Full bio
There may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
The Internet, the Web as we know it,
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Interneta, web-a guk ezagutzen dugun bezela,
00:18
the kind of Web -- the things we're all talking about --
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web mota -- hizketan ari garen gauzak --
00:21
is already less than 5,000 days old.
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5,000 egun baino gutxiago ditu.
00:25
So all of the things that we've seen come about,
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Beraz guk ikusi ditugun gertaera guztiak,
00:29
starting, say, with satellite images of the whole Earth,
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hasteko, adibidez, satelite bidez lurraren irudiak,
00:32
which we couldn't even imagine happening before,
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ordura arte gerta zitekeenik imaginatzen ez genuena --
00:35
all these things rolling into our lives,
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gauza guzi hauek gure bizitzetan,
00:39
just this abundance of things that are right before us,
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gure aurrean ditugun gauzen oparotasun hau,
00:44
sitting in front of our laptop, or our desktop.
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gure portatilaren edo ordenagailuaren aurrean eserita.
00:46
This kind of cornucopia of stuff
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Era honetako gauzen ugalmena
00:48
just coming and never ending is amazing, and we're not amazed.
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datorrena eta amaierarik ez duena, harrigarria izanik ere ez gaitu harritzen
00:54
It's really amazing that all this stuff is here.
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Benetan harrigarria da guzi hau hemen izatea
00:58
(Laughter)
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(Parreak)
00:59
It's in 5,000 days, all this stuff has come.
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5,000 egunetan, hau guzia etorri zaigu
01:03
And I know that 10 years ago,
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Eta badakit duela 10 urte,
01:06
if I had told you that this was all coming,
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esan izango banizue guzti hau zetorrela,
01:08
you would have said that that's impossible.
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hori ezinezkoa zela esango zenidatela.
01:11
There's simply no economic model that that would be possible.
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Soilik ez dagoelako eredu ekonomikorik hau posible egingo duenik.
01:16
And if I told you it was all coming for free,
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Eta esango banizueke dohainik izango zela,
01:18
you would say, this is simply -- you're dreaming.
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esango zenuten, zera -- zu ametsetan ari zara.
01:20
You're a Californian utopian. You're a wild-eyed optimist.
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Zu Californiar utopiko bat zara. Gehiegizko optimista bat.
01:24
And yet it's here.
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Eta hala ere hemen da.
01:26
The other thing that we know about it was that 10 years ago,
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Dakigun beste gauza zera da, orain dela hamar urte,
01:30
as I looked at what even Wired was talking about,
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Wired bera ere hortaz hizketan ari zela ikusi nuenean,
01:33
we thought it was going to be TV, but better.
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uste genuen telebista baino hobea izango zela.
01:36
That was the model. That was what everybody was suggesting
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Hura zen eredua; hura zen denek ziotenaren arabera
01:40
was going to be coming.
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zetorkiguna.
01:42
And it turns out that that's not what it was.
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Eta gertatu dena ez da uste genuena.
01:45
First of all, it was impossible, and it's not what it was.
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Lehenik eta behin, ezinezkoa zenez, ez da izan uste zen bezela.
01:48
And so one of the things that I think we're learning --
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Eta beraz nire ustez ikasten ari garen gauzetako bat --
01:49
if you think about, like, Wikipedia,
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hortaz pentsatzen baduzue, Wikipedia bezela,
01:51
it's something that was simply impossible.
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soilik ezinezkoa zen gauza bat da.
01:53
It's impossible in theory, but possible in practice.
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Teorian ezinezkoa, baina praktikoki posiblea.
01:57
And if you take all these things that are impossible,
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Eta ezinezkoak diren gauza guzi hauek hartzen badira,
01:58
I think one of the things that we're learning from this era,
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garai hontaz ikasten ari garen gauzetako bat, nere iritziz,
02:02
from this last decade, is that we have to get good at believing in the impossible,
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azken hamarkadan, zera da, ezinezkoan sinisten ikasi behar dugula.
02:06
because we're unprepared for it.
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ez bait gaude horretarako prestatuta.
02:09
So, I'm curious about what's going to happen in the next 5,000 days.
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Orduan kuriositatea dut datozen 5,000 egunetan gerta dakigukenaz.
02:12
But if that's happened in the last 5,000 days,
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Baina horrela gertatu bazen azken 5,000 egunetan,
02:14
what's going to happen in the next 5,000 days?
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zer gertatuko zaigu datozen 5,000 egunetan ?
02:17
So, I have a kind of a simple story,
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Beraz, ba dut nik hontaz historiotxo bat,
02:20
and it suggests that what we want to think about is this thing that we're making,
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eta planteatzen duena zera da, pentsa dezagun egiten ari garenaz
02:23
this thing that has happened in 5,000 days --
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azken 5,000 egunetan gertatu denaz.
02:25
that's all these computers, all these handhelds,
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Ordenagailu guzti horiek, gailu txiki horiek,
02:28
all these cell phones, all these laptops, all these servers --
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mugikor guzi horiek, portatil horiek, zerbitzari guziak --
02:32
basically what we're getting out of all these connections
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azken batean konexio guzti horiekin
02:36
is we're getting one machine.
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makina bakar bat lortzen ari gara.
02:38
If there is only one machine, and our little handhelds and devices
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Eta makina bakar bat izanik, gure gailu txikiak
02:42
are actually just little windows into those machines,
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makina horren baitan lehiatilak besterik ez dira,
02:44
but that we're basically constructing a single, global machine.
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baino oinarrian eraikitzen ari garena makina bat da, makina globala.
02:50
And so I began to think about that.
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Eta beraz hortaz pentsatzen hasi nintzen.
02:52
And it turned out that this machine happens to be
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Eta konturatu nintzen makina honek
02:55
the most reliable machine that we've ever made.
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orain harte eraiki dugun makinarik fidagarriena dirudiela.
02:58
It has not crashed; it's running uninterrupted.
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Ez du matxurarik , gelditu gabe funtzionatzen du.
03:00
And there's almost no other machine that we've ever made
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Eta ez dago guk eraikitako beste makinarik
03:03
that runs the number of hours, the number of days.
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hainbeste orduz dabilenik, hainbeste egunez ari denik.
03:07
5,000 days without interruption -- that's just unbelievable.
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5,000 egun etenik gabe -- sinestu ezina.
03:10
And of course, the Internet is longer than just 5,000 days;
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Eta noski, Internetak 5,000 egun baino gehiago baditu ere --
03:12
the Web is only 5,000 days.
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web-ak 5,000 egun besterik ez ditu
03:14
So, I was trying to basically make measurements.
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Eta horri buruz neurketak egiten saitu nintzen.
03:20
What are the dimensions of this machine?
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Zein da makina honen tamaina ?
03:23
And I started off by calculating how many billions of clicks there are
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Eta hasi nintzen kalkulatzen zenbat billoi klik egiten diren
03:27
all around the globe on all the computers.
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munduan zear ordenagailu guzietan.
03:30
And there is a 100 billion clicks per day.
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Eta erantzuna da 100 billoi klik egiten direla egunero.
03:32
And there's 55 trillion links between all the Web pages of the world.
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Eta 55 trilloi esteka daudela munduko web orri guzien artean
03:38
And so I began thinking more about other kinds of dimensions,
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Eta orduan beste dimentsio mota batzuetaz pentsatzen hasi nintzen,
03:41
and I made a quick list. Was it Chris Jordan, the photographer,
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eta zerrenda azkar bat egin nuen -- eta Chris Jordan ote zen, argazkilaria,
03:46
talking about numbers being so large that they're meaningless?
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zentzua galtzerainoko tamaina duten zenbakietaz hitzegiten zuena ?
03:50
Well, here's a list of them. They're hard to tell,
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Ongi, hona horrelako zerrenda bat. Zailak dira esaten,
03:52
but there's one billion PC chips on the Internet,
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baina billoi bat PC chip daude Interneten,
03:56
if you count all the chips in all the computers on the Internet.
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Interneten dauden ordenagailu guziak kontatzen baditugu.
03:58
There's two million emails per second.
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Bi milloi email bidaltzen dira segunduko.
04:00
So it's a very big number.
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Zenbaki oso handia beraz.
04:02
It's just a huge machine,
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Makina erraldoia da,
04:04
and it uses five percent of the global electricity on the planet.
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eta mundu osoko elektrizitatearen ehuneko 5a behar du.
04:08
So here's the specifications,
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Hauek dira ba espezifikazioak,
04:09
just as if you were to make up a spec sheet for it:
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espezifikazio orri bat betetzen ari bazina bezela:
04:11
170 quadrillion transistors, 55 trillion links,
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170 quadrilloi transistore, 55 trilloi link,
04:15
emails running at two megahertz itself,
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bi megahertzeko habiaduran dijoazen emailak,
04:17
31 kilohertz text messaging,
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31 kilohertz textu motako mezuak,
04:20
246 exabyte storage. That's a big disk.
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246 hexabyte datu gordeta. Disko handia alegia.
04:24
That's a lot of storage, memory. Nine exabyte RAM.
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Asko gorde daiteke, memoria -- bederatzi hexabyte RAM.
04:27
And the total traffic on this
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Eta honen gainean dabilen trafikoa
04:31
is running at seven terabytes per second.
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zazpi terabyte segunduko habiaduran doa.
04:34
Brewster was saying the Library of Congress is about twenty terabytes.
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Brewsterren esanetan Congresuko liburutegiak hogei terabyte omen ditu.
04:37
So every second, half of the Library of Congress
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Beraz segunduro, Kongresuko Liburutegiaren erdia
04:40
is swooshing around in this machine. It's a big machine.
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pasatzen da makina honetatik. Makina galanta..
04:44
So I did something else. I figured out 100 billion clicks per day,
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Orduan beste zerbait egin nuen. Ohartu nintzen 100 billoi klik egunean,
04:48
55 trillion links is almost the same
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55 trilloi link, antzerako zerbait direla
04:51
as the number of synapses in your brain.
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gure garunean ditugun sinapsiekin alderatuta
04:53
A quadrillion transistors is almost the same
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Kuatrilloi bat transistore dira
04:55
as the number of neurons in your brain.
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gure garunean ditugun neurona kopurua.
04:57
So to a first approximation, we have these things --
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Orduan hasierako hurbilketa batean, honako hau dugu --
05:00
twenty petahertz synapse firings.
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hogei petahertz sinapsi tiro.
05:02
Of course, the memory is really huge.
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Noski memoria ikaragarria dela.
05:04
But to a first approximation, the size of this machine is the size --
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Baino hurbilketa batean, makina honen tamaina --
05:10
and its complexity, kind of -- to your brain.
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eta bera konplexutasuna, gure garunaren parekoak dira
05:15
Because in fact, that's how your brain works -- in kind of the same way that the Web works.
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Horrela funtzionatzen du gure burmuinak -- nolabait web-aren antzera.
05:19
However, your brain isn't doubling every two years.
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Ordea, gure garuna ez da bikoizten bi urtero.
05:23
So if we say this machine right now that we've made
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Beraz esaten badugu guk egin dugun makina hau
05:28
is about one HB, one human brain,
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giza garunaren baten antzekoa dela,
05:31
if we look at the rate that this is increasing,
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eta zein abiaduran hazten ari den begiratzen badugu,
05:34
30 years from now, there'll be six billion HBs.
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30 urte barru, sei billoi giza garunen parekoa izango da.
05:39
So by the year 2040, the total processing of this machine
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Horrela 2040 urterako, makina honen prozamendu gaitasuna
05:43
will exceed a total processing power of humanity,
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gizadi guztiaren prozamendu ahalmen totala gaindituko luke,
05:46
in raw bits and stuff. And this is, I think, where
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datuei eta antzekoei dagokionean . Eta hau da, nere ustez,
05:49
Ray Kurzweil and others get this little chart saying that we're going to cross.
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Ray Kurzweil-ek eta besteek iruditan ziotena gainditzera gindoazela
05:54
So, what about that? Well, here's a couple of things.
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Beraz horri buruz zer ? Ba, hona pare bat gauza.
06:00
I have three kind of general things
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Nik hiru motatako gauza orokorrak ditut
06:03
I would like to say, three consequences of this.
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Esan nahi dudana da; hiru ondorio hontaz.
06:07
First, that basically what this machine is doing is embodying.
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Lehenengoa, funtsean makina hau egiten ari dena, gorputza hartzea dela --
06:12
We're giving it a body. And that's what we're going to do
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gorputz bat ematen ari gatzaio. Hori da guk egingo duguna
06:14
in the next 5,000 days -- we're going to give this machine a body.
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datozen 5,000 egunetan -- makina honi gorputz bat ematera goaz.
06:17
And the second thing is, we're going to restructure its architecture.
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Eta bigarrengo gauza, bere arkitektura-ren egitura berrantolatzera goaz.
06:20
And thirdly, we're going to become completely codependent upon it.
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Eta hirugarrena, zeharo bere ko-dependienteak bihurtzera goaz.
06:24
So let me go through those three things.
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Goazen hiru gauza hauetaz hitzegitera.
06:26
First of all, we have all these things in our hands.
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Hasteko, gauza guzti hauek gure eskuetan ditugu.
06:29
We think they're all separate devices,
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Gure ustea da gailu guzti horiek bananduta daudela,
06:31
but in fact, every screen in the world
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baina gauza da, munduko pantaila bakoitza
06:34
is looking into the one machine.
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makina horri begira ari dela.
06:37
These are all basically portals into that one machine.
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Hauek funtsean makina horretako portalak dira.
06:40
The second thing is that -- some people call this the cloud,
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Bigarren gauza da -- batzuek honi "lainoa" deitzen diote,
06:44
and you're kind of touching the cloud with this.
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eta honekin nolabait lainoa ikutzen ari gara.
06:46
And so in some ways, all you really need is a cloudbook.
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Eta nolabait, behar dugun gauza bakarra laino-liburu ('clodbook') bat da.
06:50
And the cloudbook doesn't have any storage.
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Eta laino-liburuak ez du ezer gordetzen.
06:53
It's wireless. It's always connected.
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Kablerik ez du eta beti dago konektatua.
06:56
There's many things about it. It becomes very simple,
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Hortaz gauza asko dago. Oso sinplea da,
06:58
and basically what you're doing is you're just touching the machine,
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eta oinarrian egiten ari garena makina bera ikutzea da,
07:00
you're touching the cloud and you're going to compute that way.
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lainoa ikutzen ari gara eta horrela konputatuko da.
07:03
So the machine is computing.
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Horrela makina konputatzen ari da.
07:05
And in some ways, it's sort of back
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Nolabait esateko, garai bateko
07:06
to the kind of old idea of centralized computing.
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konputazio zentralizatuaren ideiaren antzera.
07:09
But everything, all the cameras, and the microphones,
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Gauza guztiak, kamera guztiak, mikrofonoak,
07:13
and the sensors in cars
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kotxeetako sentsoreak
07:17
and everything is connected to this machine.
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eta gauza guztiak makinara konektatuta daude.
07:19
And everything will go through the Web.
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Eta gauza guztiak web-ean zehar joango dira.
07:21
And we're seeing that already with, say, phones.
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Eta dagoeneko hori ikusten ari gara, adibidez, telefonoetan.
07:23
Right now, phones don't go through the Web,
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Oraingoz telefonoak ez doaz webetik zehar,
07:25
but they are beginning to, and they will.
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baina horretan hasiak dira, eta hala izango da.
07:28
And if you imagine what, say, just as an example, what Google Labs has
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Eta adibidez pentsatu, esate baterako, Google Labs-ek duena
07:32
in terms of experiments with Google Docs, Google Spreadsheets, blah, blah, blah --
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esperimentu gisa Google docs-arekin, Google spreadsheets, blah, blah, blah --
07:36
all these things are going to become Web based.
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gauza guzti hauek web-ean oinarrituak izango dira.
07:39
They're going through the machine.
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Makinatik zehar dabiltza.
07:41
And I am suggesting that every bit will be owned by the Web.
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Eta nik diodana da bit bakoitza web-ak bereganatuko duela.
07:46
Right now, it's not. If you do spreadsheets and things at work,
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Oraintxe bertan ez da -- lanean egiten dituzuen kalkulu orriak,
07:49
a Word document, they aren't on the Web,
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Word dokumentuak, ez daude web-ean,
07:52
but they are going to be. They're going to be part of this machine.
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baina izango dira. Makinaren baitan izango dira.
07:54
They're going to speak the Web language.
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Eta web lenguaia hitz egingo dute.
07:56
They're going to talk to the machine.
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Makinari hitz egingo diote.
07:58
The Web, in some sense, is kind of like a black hole
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Web-a zentzu batean, zulo beltz moduko bat litzateke,
08:01
that's sucking up everything into it.
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gauza guztiak xurgatzen dituena.
08:04
And so every thing will be part of the Web.
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Eta beraz dena izango da web-aren baitan.
08:08
So every item, every artifact that we make, will have embedded in it
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Elementu bakoitzak, sortzen dugun gailu bakoitzak, bere barnean
08:13
some little sliver of Web-ness and connection,
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webarekin konexio modu bat izango du,
08:16
and it will be part of this machine,
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eta makina honen barruan izango da,
08:18
so that our environment -- kind of in that ubiquitous computing sense --
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horrela gure ingurunea -- nonahi dela - konputazio zentzuan --
08:21
our environment becomes the Web. Everything is connected.
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gure ingurunea web-a bihurtzen da. Dena konektatua dago.
08:26
Now, with RFIDs and other things -- whatever technology it is,
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Orain, RFID-ekin eta horrelakoekin -- edozer teknologia izanik ere,
08:29
it doesn't really matter. The point is that everything
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ez zaio benetan axola, zeren gauza guztiak
08:32
will have embedded in it some sensor connecting it to the machine,
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izango dute txertatua bere baitan makinarekiko nolabaiteko konexioa,
08:35
and so we have, basically, an Internet of things.
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eta horrela lortzen da, funtsean, "gauzen interneta".
08:38
So you begin to think of a shoe as a chip with heels,
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Horrela, pentsatu oinetakoak zoladun txipak bezela,
08:42
and a car as a chip with wheels,
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eta kotxeak gurpildun txipak bezela.
08:45
because basically most of the cost of manufacturing cars
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Zeren oinarrian autoen fabrikazioaren kosterik handiena
08:48
is the embedded intelligence and electronics in it, and not the materials.
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ezartzen zaien inteligentzia eta elektronikan datza, eta ez materialean.
08:54
A lot of people think about the new economy
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Jende asko ari da ekonomia berriaz pentsatzen
08:56
as something that was going to be a disembodied,
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gorputzik izango ez duen zerbait bezela
08:58
alternative, virtual existence,
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birtual alternatiboa,
09:01
and that we would have the old economy of atoms.
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eta ondorioz atomoen ekonomia zaharkitua izango genuke.
09:04
But in fact, what the new economy really is
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Baina gauza da ekonomia berria
09:07
is the marriage of those two, where we embed the information,
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bi hauen ezkontza dela, non informazioa txertatzen dugun,
09:11
and the digital nature of things into the material world.
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gauzen izaera digitala mundu materialean.
09:13
That's what we're looking forward to. That is where we're going --
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Hori da gure aurrean dugun norabidea. Hara goaz --
09:17
this union, this convergence of the atomic and the digital.
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bateratze horretara, atomiko eta digitalaren uztarketara.
09:24
And so one of the consequences of that, I believe,
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Eta honen ondorioetako bat, nik uste dut,
09:26
is that where we have this sort of spectrum of media right now --
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momentu honetan dugun media espektroa da --
09:30
TV, film, video -- that basically becomes one media platform.
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TV, film, bideo -- azkenean dena euskarri bakarrean bilakatzen da.
09:33
And while there's many differences in some senses,
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Eta nahiz eta ezberdintasun ugari izan zentzu batean,
09:35
they will share more and more in common with each other.
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gero eta gehiago konpartituko dute elkarren artean.
09:38
So that the laws of media, such as the fact that copies have no value,
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Horrela media-ri dagozkion legeak: kopiatzeak ez duela baliorik.
09:43
the value's in the uncopiable things,
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Balioa kopiatu ezin diren gauzetan datza.
09:45
the immediacy, the authentication, the personalization.
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Momentukoa, autentikotasuna, pertsonalizazioa --
09:50
The media wants to be liquid.
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mediak likido izan nahi du;
09:53
The reason why things are free is so that you can manipulate them,
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gauzak doainik izatearen arrazoia hauek manipulatu ahal izatea da,
09:56
not so that they are "free" as in "beer," but "free" as in "freedom."
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ez doan izatearen zentzuan, baizik eta askatasunaren zentzuan.
10:00
And the network effects rule,
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Eta sarearen efektuak agintzen du --
10:02
meaning that the more you have, the more you get.
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esanaz gehiago baduzu, gehiago jasoko duzu.
10:04
The first fax machine -- the person who bought the first fax machine
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Lehenengo fax makina erosi zuen pertsona
10:07
was an idiot, because there was nobody to fax to.
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zoro bat zen, zeren ez bait zegoen faxa bidaltzeko inor.
10:12
But here she became an evangelist, recruiting others
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Hala ere ebangelari gisa bilakatu zen, besteak bilduz
10:16
to get the fax machines because it made their purchase more valuable.
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fax makinak eskuratzera ze horrek egiten bait zuen erosketa baliogarriagoa.
10:19
Those are the effects that we're going to see.
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Horiek dira guk ikusiko ditugunaren efektuak.
10:21
Attention is the currency.
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Adi egon behar da.
10:23
So those laws are going to kind of spread throughout all media.
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Horrela lege hauek media guztietan nolabait zabaltzen doaz.
10:28
And the other thing about this embodiment
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Eta gorputz hartze honen beste gauza
10:30
is that there's kind of what I call the McLuhan reversal.
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badela nolabait nik deitzen diodan McLuhan-en rebertsoa
10:33
McLuhan was saying, "Machines are the extensions of the human senses."
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McLuhan-ek zion, "Makinak giza zentzumenen luzapenak dira."
10:35
And I'm saying, "Humans are now going to be
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Eta nik diodana, "Gizakiak izango dira
10:37
the extended senses of the machine," in a certain sense.
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makinaren zentzuen luzapenak," zentzu konkretu batean.
10:40
So we have a trillion eyes, and ears, and touches,
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Beraz trilloi bat begi dauzkagu, eta belarri, eta ukimen,
10:44
through all our digital photographs and cameras.
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gure kamera eta argazki digitalen bitartez..
10:47
And we see that in things like Flickr,
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Eta ikusten dugu Flickr bezelakoetan,
10:52
or Photosynth, this program from Microsoft
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edo Photosynth, Microsoft-en programa hau
10:55
that will allow you to assemble a view of a touristy place
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leku turistiko baten ikuspegi batu bat lortzeko
10:59
from the thousands of tourist snapshots of it.
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turistek ateratako dizkioten milaka argazkietatik.
11:03
In a certain sense, the machine is seeing through the pixels of individual cameras.
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Zentzu batean, makina bera kamara bakoitzaren pixeletatik zehar begira ari da.
11:09
Now, the second thing that I want to talk about was this idea of restructuring,
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Orain, esan nahiko nukeen bigarren gauza berregituratze ideiarena litzateke --
11:13
that what the Web is doing is restructuring.
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alegia, weba egiten ari dena berregituratzea da.
11:15
And I have to warn you, that what we'll talk about is --
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Eta ohartu behar zaituztet, hitzegitera goazen hori da --
11:17
I'm going to give my explanation of a term you're hearing, which is a "semantic Web."
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Nire ikuspegia emango dizuet entzuten ari zareten hitz batetaz, "web semantikoa" alegia
11:21
So first of all, the first stage that we've seen
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Beraz lehenik eta behin, ikusi dugun internetaren lehenengo urratsa
11:24
of the Internet was that it was going to link computers.
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ordenagailuak estekaz lotzen zituenarena zen.
11:27
And that's what we called the Net; that was the Internet of nets.
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Eta horri deitu genion sarea -- sareen Interneta.
11:30
And we saw that, where you have all the computers of the world.
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Eta ikusi genuen munduko ordenagailu guztiak izanez gero --
11:33
And if you remember, it was a kind of green screen with cursors,
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eta gogoratzen baduzue, pantaila berde moduko bat zen kursoreekin,
11:37
and there was really not much to do, and if you wanted to connect it,
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eta ez zegoen zeregin handirik, eta bertara konektatu nahi izanez gero,
11:39
you connected it from one computer to another computer.
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ordenagailu batetik bestera konektatu behar zenuen.
11:42
And what you had to do was -- if you wanted to participate in this,
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Eta egin behar zena, bertan parte hartu nahi izanez gero,
11:44
you had to share packets of information.
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informazio paketeak trukatzea zen.
11:48
So you were forwarding on. You didn't have control.
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Horrela transmititzen ariko zinateke. Kontrolik ez zenuten.
11:50
It wasn't like a telephone system where you had control of a line:
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Ez zen telefono sistema bat bezela non zuk linearen kontrola duzun --
11:52
you had to share packets.
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paketeak trukatu behar zenituen.
11:54
The second stage that we're in now is the idea of linking pages.
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Orain gauden bigarren urratsean, ideia, orriak elkar lotzea da.
11:59
So in the old one, if I wanted to go on to an airline Web page,
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Lehen, hegazkin enpresa baten web gunera joateko,
12:02
I went from my computer, to an FTP site, to another airline computer.
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nire ordenagailutik, FTP gune batera joaten nintzen, ondoren, beste hegazkin enpresa bateko ordenagailura joateko.
12:06
Now we have pages -- the unit has been resolved into pages,
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Orain orriak dauzkagu -- unitatea orrietan neurtzen da,
12:11
so one page links to another page.
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eta orri bat beste bati lotzen zaio.
12:13
And if I want to go in to book a flight,
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Eta hegaldi bat erosi nahiko banu,
12:16
I go into the airline's flight page, the website of the airline,
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Hegazkin enpresaren orrira joango nintzateke, bere web gunera,
12:21
and I'm linking to that page.
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eta orri horretara joaten naiz.
12:23
And what we're sharing were links, so you had to be kind of open with links.
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Eta partekatzen ari garena linkak dira, orduan esku zabalak izan behar dugu linkak trukatzean.
12:27
You couldn't deny -- if someone wanted to link to you,
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Ez zenuke oztopatu beharko -- norbaitek zu linkatu nahi bazindu,
12:29
you couldn't stop them. You had to participate in this idea
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ez zenituzke oztopatu behar; ideia honetan parte hartu beharko zenuke
12:33
of opening up your pages to be linked by anybody.
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zure orriak irekiaz edonork linkatu ahal izateko.
12:36
So that's what we were doing.
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Hori zen bada egiten ari ginena.
12:38
We're now entering to the third stage, which is what I'm talking about,
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Orain hirugarren etapa baten sartzera goaz, eta horretaz ari natzaizue,
12:42
and that is where we link the data.
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alegia, oraingoan datuak linkatzen ditugu
12:44
So, I don't know what the name of this thing is.
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Nahiz eta ez jakin gauza honek ze izen duen,
12:46
I'm calling it the one machine. But we're linking data.
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Nik "makina bakarra" deitzen diot. Baina datuak linkatzen ditugu.
12:48
So we're going from machine to machine,
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Horrela makinaz makina goaz,
12:50
from page to page, and now data to data.
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orritik orrira, eta orain datutik datura.
12:52
So the difference is, is that rather than linking from page to page,
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Ezberdintasuna da, orri batetik bestera linkatu beharrean,
12:56
we're actually going to link from one idea on a page
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oraingoan orri bateko ideia batetik
13:00
to another idea, rather than to the other page.
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beste ideia batetara goazela, eta ez beste orri batetara.
13:02
So every idea is basically being supported --
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Orduan edozein ideia --
13:05
or every item, or every noun -- is being supported by the entire Web.
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edo edozein item, edo edozein izen -- web osoan oinarritua dago.
13:08
It's being resolved at the level of items, or ideas, or words, if you want.
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Elementu, ideia edo hitzen mailan ebazten da
13:14
So besides physically coming out again into this idea
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Bestalde, fisikoki ez ezik, ideia honetara bueltatuz
13:18
that it's not just virtual, it's actually going out to things.
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ez da bakarrik birtuala, gauzak irtetzen ari dira.
13:22
So something will resolve down to the information
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Orduan, informazio gehiago izango da
13:25
about a particular person, so every person will have a unique ID.
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pertsona konkretu bati buruz, pertsona orok izango du ID bakar bat.
13:29
Every person, every item will have a something
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Denek, gauza bakoitzak, izango du zerbait
13:31
that will be very specific, and will link
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oso bereizgarria, eta lotuko duena
13:33
to a specific representation of that idea or item.
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ideia edo gauza horren irudikapenera.
13:37
So now, in this new one, when I link to it,
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Horrela orain berri honetan, hara lotzen naizenean,
13:40
I would link to my particular flight, my particular seat.
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nere hegaldi berezira lotuko naiz, nire eserlekura.
13:46
And so, giving an example of this thing,
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Horrela -- honen adibide bat emateko --
13:49
I live in Pacifica, rather than -- right now Pacifica
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Ni Pacifica-n bizi naiz -- oraintxe Pacifica
13:51
is just sort of a name on the Web somewhere.
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webean nonbaiten dagoen izen moduko bat da.
13:54
The Web doesn't know that that is actually a town,
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Web-ak ez daki hura gaur egun hiri bat dela,
13:56
and that it's a specific town that I live in,
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eta ni bizi naizen hiri berezi bat dela,
13:58
but that's what we're going to be talking about.
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baina hortaz hitzegiten ariko gara.
14:01
It's going to link directly to --
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Badoa zuzenean lotzera --
14:03
it will know, the Web will be able to read itself
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web-a bere burua irakurtzeko gai izango da
14:06
and know that that actually is a place,
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eta jakiteko gaur egun leku bat dela,
14:08
and that whenever it sees that word, "Pacifica,"
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eta horrek inoiz ikusiko balu "Pacifica,"
14:10
it knows that it actually has a place,
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jakingo luke baduela leku bat,
14:11
latitude, longitude, a certain population.
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latitude, longitude, eta populazio kopuru bat.
14:14
So here are some of the technical terms, all three-letter things,
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Hemen daude beraz termino tekniko batzuk, denak hiru letra dutenak,
14:17
that you'll see a lot more of.
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ikusiko dituzue askoz gehiago.
14:19
All these things are about enabling this idea of linking to the data.
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Gauza guzti hauek datuen loturei buruzko ideia azaleratzen dute.
14:24
So I'll give you one kind of an example.
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Emango dizuet adibide bat.
14:27
There's like a billion social sites on the Web.
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Billoi bat gune sozial daude webean.
14:31
Each time you go into there, you have to tell it again who you are
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Bertara sartzen garen bakoitzean, esan behar zaio nor zaren,
14:34
and all your friends are.
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eta nortzuk diren zure lagunak.
14:35
Why should you be doing that? You should just do that once,
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Zergatik egon behar zara hori egiten? Behin egitea nahikoa litzateke,
14:37
and it should know who all your friends are.
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eta jakin beharko luke zeintzuk diren zure lagunak.
14:40
So that's what you want, is all your friends are identified,
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Hori da nahi duzuna, zure lagunak identifikatuak izatea,
14:42
and you should just carry these relationships around.
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eta datu hauek zurekin doaz
14:44
All this data about you should just be conveyed,
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Datu guzti hauek transmititu behar lirateke,
14:47
and you should do it once and that's all that should happen.
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eta behin egitea nahikoa litzateke eta hori horrela izan behar du.
14:50
And you should have all the networks
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Eta sare guzti hau eduki beharko genuke
14:52
of all the relationships between those pieces of data.
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datu ezberdin guzti horien arteko erlazioei buruz
14:54
That's what we're moving into -- where it sort of knows these things down to that level.
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Horra goaz -- gisa honetako jakintza
14:59
A semantic Web, Web 3.0, giant global graph --
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Web semantikoa bat, Web 3.0, grafika global erraldoi bat --
15:02
we're kind of trying out what we want to call this thing.
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non saiatzen ari gara gauza honi izen bat ezartzen.
15:05
But what's it's doing is sharing data.
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Baina egiten ari dena datuak zabaltzea da.
15:07
So you have to be open to having your data shared, which is a much bigger step
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Irekita egon behar dugu datuak konpartitzera, eta hau pausu askoz handiagoa da
15:12
than just sharing your Web page, or your computer.
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zure web orria zabaltzea baino, edo zure ordenagailua.
15:14
And all these things that are going to be on this
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Eta honen inguruan izango diren gauza guzti hauek
15:18
are not just pages, they are things.
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ez dira orriak bakarrik, gauzak baizik.
15:21
Everything we've described, every artifact or place,
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Deskribatu dugun guztia, gailu edo leku bakoitza,
15:25
will be a specific representation,
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errepresentazio konkretu bat izango da,
15:27
will have a specific character that can be linked to directly.
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zuzenean estekatu daiteken ezaugarri berezia bat izango du
15:32
So we have this database of things.
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Horrela lortzen dugu gauzen datu basea.
15:34
And so there's actually a fourth thing that we have not get to,
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Eta bada laugarren gauza bat lortu ez duguna,
15:38
that we won't see in the next 10 years, or 5,000 days,
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eta datozen 10 urtetan edo 5,000 egunetan ikusiko ez duguna,
15:40
but I think that's where we're going to. And as the Internet of things --
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baina uste dut hortara goazela. Eta gauzen Interneta bezela --
15:45
where I'm linking directly to the particular things of my seat on the plane --
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non zuzenean lotzen natzaio egazkineko nire jarlekuko gauzetara --
15:49
that that physical thing becomes part of the Web.
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gauza fisiko horiek web-aren parte bilakatzen dira.
15:52
And so we are in the middle of this thing
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Eta horrela gauza honen erdian aurkitzen gara
15:54
that's completely linked, down to every object
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objetu guziekin lotutzen gaituen
15:57
in the little sliver of a connection that it has.
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konexio baten bitartez
15:59
So, the last thing I want to talk about is this idea
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Orduan azkenik esan nahi dudana ideia da
16:01
that we're going to be codependent.
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elkar-dependienteak izango garela.
16:04
It's always going to be there, and the closer it is, the better.
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Bera beti izango da hor, eta gertuago izan, eta hobeto.
16:08
If you allow Google to, it will tell you your search history.
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Google-i uzten bazaio, zure bilaketen historiala esango dizu.
16:11
And I found out by looking at it
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Eta horri bergira aurkitu dut
16:13
that I search most at 11 o'clock in the morning.
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neronek goizeko 11-etan billatzen dudala gehien.
16:16
So I am open, and being transparent to that.
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Horrela ni irekia nago, eta horretan transparentea naiz.
16:19
And I think total personalization in this new world will require total transparency.
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Eta mundu berri honetan personalizazioak, transparentzia eskatzen du.
16:25
That is going to be the price.
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Hori da prezioa.
16:27
If you want to have total personalization,
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Erabateko personalizazioa nahi bada,
16:28
you have to be totally transparent.
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erabat transparentea behar duzu izan.
16:30
Google. I can't remember my phone number, I'll just ask Google.
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Google. Ez dut nire telefono zenbakia gogoratzen. Google-i galdetzen diot.
16:33
We're so dependent on this that I have now gotten to the point
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Iritxi naiz puntu bateraino, hontaz hain dependienteak bihurtu garenez
16:35
where I don't even try to remember things --
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ez naizela gauzak gogoratzen saiatu ere egiten --
16:37
I'll just Google it. It's easier to do that.
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Google-en sartuko dut. Errazagoa bait da.
16:39
And we kind of object at first, saying, "Oh, that's awful."
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Eta garen bezalakoak garelako diogu, '" Beldurgarria !!."
16:42
But if we think about the dependency that we have on this other technology,
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Baina pentsatzen badugu beste teknologiengan dugun dependentzian,
16:45
called the alphabet, and writing,
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alfabetoa eta idazketarekiko --
16:47
we're totally dependent on it, and it's transformed culture.
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zeharo dependienteak gara, eta hori kultura bihurtu da.
16:50
We cannot imagine ourselves without the alphabet and writing.
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Ezin dugu imaginatu geure burua alfabeto eta idazkerarik gabe.
16:54
And so in the same way, we're going to not imagine ourselves
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Era berean, ez dugu gure burua imaginatuko
16:57
without this other machine being there.
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makina hau hor ez delarik.
16:59
And what is happening with this is
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Eta honekin gertatzen ari dena da
17:02
some kind of AI, but it's not the AI in conscious AI,
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nolabait kontzientzia gabeko Inteligentzia Artifiziala da
17:04
as being an expert, Larry Page told me
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--hontan jakituna den Larry Page-k esaten zidanez,
17:07
that that's what they're trying to do,
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hori lortu nahian ari direla beraiek,
17:08
and that's what they're trying to do.
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eta hortaz ari direla.
17:10
But when six billion humans are Googling,
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Baina 6 milloi gizaki googleatzen ari diranean,
17:13
who's searching who? It goes both ways.
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nork nor bilatzen ? Bi norabidetan.
17:15
So we are the Web, that's what this thing is.
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Horrela gu gara weba eta hori da gauza.
17:19
We are going to be the machine.
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Makina bera izatera goaz.
17:21
So the next 5,000 days, it's not going to be the Web and only better.
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Horrela datozen 5,000 egunetan -- ez da izango weba edo hobea.
17:26
Just like it wasn't TV and only better.
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Telebista edo hobea izan ez zen bezela.
17:28
The next 5,000 days, it's not just going to be the Web
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Datozen 5,000 egun -- ez da izango web-a,
17:31
but only better -- it's going to be something different.
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edo hobea; zerbait desberdina izango da.
17:33
And I think it's going to be smarter.
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Nere ustez politagoa.
17:37
It'll have an intelligence in there, that's not, again, conscious.
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Inteligentzia izango du, naiz eta konzientziarik ez izan.
17:41
But it'll anticipate what we're doing, in a good sense.
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Bainan egiten ari garena aurrikusiko du, zentzu onean.
17:45
Secondly, it's become much more personalized.
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Bigarrenez, askoz ere pertsonalizatuagoa izango da.
17:48
It will know us, and that's good.
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Ezagutuko gaitu, eta hori ona da.
17:50
And again, the price of that will be transparency.
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Berriro diot, transparentziaren trukean.
17:54
And thirdly, it's going to become more ubiquitous
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Eta hirugarrengoz, leku guztietan egongo da
17:56
in terms of filling your entire environment, and we will be in the middle of it.
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zure ingurunean erabat izango da, eta gu haren erdian izango gara.
18:01
And all these devices will be portals into that.
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Eta gailu guzi hauek sarrerak izango dira bertara.
18:04
So the single idea that I wanted to leave with you
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Orduan nik utzi nahi dizuedan ideia bakara da
18:07
is that we have to begin to think about this as not just "the Web, only better,"
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pentsatzen hasi behar dugula hau ez dela web-a edo "zerbait hobea" izango,
18:13
but a new kind of stage in this development.
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garapenaren urrats mota berri bat baizik.
18:16
It looks more global. If you take this whole thing,
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Globalagoa dirudiena -- esandako guztia kontutan,
18:19
it is a very big machine, very reliable machine,
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Makina erraldoia da, oso makina segurua,
18:22
more reliable than its parts.
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bare osagaiak baino seguruagoa.
18:24
But we can also think about it as kind of a large organism.
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Eta pentsa genezake berataz organismo handi bat balitz bezela.
18:27
So we might respond to it more as if this was a whole system,
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Eta systema global bat izango balitz bezela jokatuko dugu,
18:32
more as if this wasn't a large organism
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organismo handi bat bezela baino.
18:34
that we are going to be interacting with. It's a "One."
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berarekin elkarreragiten duguna . 'Bera' da.
18:38
And I don't know what else to call it, than the One.
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Eta ez dakiz beste nola deitu, 'Bera' ez ezik.
18:41
We'll have a better word for it.
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Izango dugu hitz egokiagorik.
18:42
But there's a unity of some sort that's starting to emerge.
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Baina hasi berria den zerbait da
18:45
And again, I don't want to talk about consciousness,
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Eta berriro diot, ez dudala kontzientziaz hitzegin nahi,
18:48
I want to talk about it just as if it was a little bacteria,
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bera bakteria txiki moduko bat da,
18:50
or a volvox, which is what that organism is.
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edo volvox bat, hala bait da organismo hori.
18:53
So, to do, action, take-away. So, here's what I would say:
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Beraz, badugu zer eginnik. Hara nik nola esango nukeen:
18:59
there's only one machine, and the Web is its OS.
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makina bakarra da, eta web-a da bere Sistema Eragilea.
19:03
All screens look into the One. No bits will live outside the Web.
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Pantaila guziak berari begira. Bit-ik ez da biziko webetik kanpora.
19:07
To share is to gain. Let the One read it.
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Konpartitzea irabaztea da. Utzi 'Bera'-ri irakur dezan.
19:11
It's going to be machine-readable.
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Makinak irakurtzeko modukoa izango da;
19:12
You want to make something that the machine can read.
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makinak irakurri ahal duen zerbait egin nahi duzu.
19:15
And the One is us. We are in the One.
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Eta 'Bera' gu gara -- gu gaude 'Bertan'
19:20
I appreciate your time.
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Eskerrak zuen denboragatik.
19:22
(Applause)
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(Txaloak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kevin Kelly - Digital visionaryThere may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology.
Why you should listen
Kelly has been publisher of the Whole Earth Review, executive editor at Wired magazine (which he co-founded, and where he now holds the title of Senior Maverick), founder of visionary nonprofits and writer on biology, business and “cool tools.” He’s renounced all material things save his bicycle (which he then rode 3,000 miles), founded an organization (the All-Species Foundation) to catalog all life on Earth, championed projects that look 10,000 years into the future (at the Long Now Foundation), and more. He’s admired for his acute perspectives on technology and its relevance to history, biology and society. His new book, The Inevitable, just published, explores 12 technological forces that will shape our future.
Kevin Kelly | Speaker | TED.com