Stewart Brand and Chris Anderson: Mammoths resurrected, geoengineering and other thoughts from a futurist
史都華 · 布蘭德&克里斯 · 安德森: 從未來學家的觀點看復活長毛象、地球工程,及更多的想法分享
Since the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ... Full bioChris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
你創立了這份雜誌。
you founded this magazine.
這是原版的,現在很難找到了。
It's the original one.
史:是的。
這麼大的影響力?
反主流文化運動。
that I was part of at the time,
反主流文化運動。
of hippies and New Left.
有趣的趨勢在哪裡,
at where the interesting flow is
as an army officer,
我在當陸軍軍官時受的訓練。
來尋找獨創性:
to find originalities:
else is looking,
the hippies were very romantic
it was a power device.
fold, or mutilate.
was kind of a counter-counterculture thing
反–反主流文化的東西,
巴克敏斯特 · 富勒的觀點,
Buckminster Fuller's idea
define the world in interesting ways.
disappeared one week,
and engineers disappeared one week,
和工程師消失一星期,
about power to the people.
and Steve Wozniak
don't try to change human nature,
但人類天性甚至一點也沒變。
and it does not even bend,
那有效的做法
if you want to make the world better
做出奇怪的舉動,
differently like the New Left was,
that go in the right direction.
this is one of the first images,
看地球的影像之一。
Earth from outer space.
that in the spring of '66,
那算是種巧合,
在迷幻藥的作用下,
on a rooftop in San Francisco,
something that Fuller talked about,
that the Earth is flat
in terms of its resources,
that it's a sphere
on my hundred micrograms
which were right in front of me
they were sort of fanned out like this.
they are on a curved surface.
我就能看得更清楚,
I would see that even more clearly,
the circle of Earth from space.
in space for 10 years --
只看地球的某個部分。
or looking at just parts of the Earth.
沒看到完整的地球照片?
a photograph of the whole Earth yet?
議員們、秘書長們都聽到了,
and senators, secretaries got it,
一些不同的人也聽到了,
in the Politburo got it,
Catalog came out,
lazy and ingenious
且別出心裁的東西,
that you see --
Whole Earth banners and so on --
way to make the system go
來調整整個系統時,
the whole system around in a big way,
horsing-around problems,
系統本身就會自我調整,
it will adjust to the tweak.
除了許多其他形象,
among many other things,
in the environmental movement,
taking on a lot of,
almost believe are heresies.
a couple of those.
and Arctic region, used to look like.
曾經看起來是這個樣子。
used to look like that.
and the Serengeti now,
甚至整個世界。
throughout the world.
不僅是要帶回這些動物
is to not only bring back those animals
是種形成氣候穩定的系統,
stabilization system over the long run,
there in the background
a 200-year goal.
the extinction rate
in the background.
會需要更長的時間,
of bio-abundance will take longer,
我們該怎麼看待絕種問題。
should think of extinctions.
目前令人擔心的重大問題之一
concerns right now
比史上任何時期都快。
at a faster rate than ever in history.
of the Sixth Extinction
of the Sixth Extinction.
the de-extinction business,
(組織名)做的也是預防滅絕,
with Revive & Restore,
going on with extinction.
set of data out there
已用黃色三角形標示出來,
indicated by the yellow triangles,
由隕石撞擊造成的恐龍滅絕。
66 million years ago
我們即將是下一個隕石。
for a paper I wrote,
全世界所有物種的 75%
75 percent of all the species
of five-and-a-half-million species,
one and a half million.
1 萬 4 千種。
identified every year.
going on out there.
kind of used in strange ways.
「物種滅絕」這個詞有點奇怪。
卡爾季默撰寫的一篇報導,
in the New York Times,
海洋中的物種正滅絕」
Broad Studies Show."
and it mentions that since 1500,
文中提及自從 1500 年起,
十五種喔,絕種了,
have gone extinct in the oceans,
過去五十年間沒有物種絕種。
none in the last 50 years.
into the story, and it's saying,
are so overfishing the wild fishes,
the fish populations in the oceans
are probably going to go extinct.
「喔,天啊,開始覺得恐慌吧,
"Oh my God, start panicking,
all the species in the oceans."
looking into in a little more detail,
that are considered threatened
顯示有 23,000 種物種
國際自然保護聯盟(IUCN)。
for the Conservation of Nature, the IUCN.
調查了野生生命的滅絕,
surveying the loss of wildlife,
for more centuries and millennia,
第六次大滅絕的開端」
of a sixth extinction.
有道德責任要這麼做,
a moral responsibility to,
the thing that they are looking at,
可能根本沒有人會理會。
maybe no one listens.
moral this or moral that --
"precautionary principle" --
to basically say no to things.
fish extinction, animal extinction,
魚類絕種、動物絕種,
促進牠們的成長,且造成了損失。
and there is losses going on.
are caused by agriculture,
基本上會帶來更高密度,
and basically makes it more condensed,
vertical farms in town,
種植大麻的知識,
about how to grow pot in basements,
vegetables inside containers --
就是節約大自然用地。
we can do for nature.
of a destruction of the landscape is good.
bringing back species, rewilding ...
What's the story with these guys?
at peak children being alive.
fewer and fewer children.
of human population,
maybe nine and a half billion,
but probably going down.
that plays out in Europe
of abandoned farmland now,
corridors in Europe.
so many of these farms are connected
因為許多農田都相連在一起,
reforested wildlife corridors,
in this case, to Spain.
to the Netherlands.
There's lynx coming back.
完全不知道有這種動物存在。
I had no idea such a thing existed.
to the rest of Europe.
這點蠻有趣的。
which is kind of interesting.
They've been missed.
當你把掠食性動物帶回來,
when you bring back the predators,
ecosystem often.
掠食性動物和大型動物,
and large animals --
with sharp teeth and claws --
for a really rich ecosystem.
這個戲劇般的野化計畫,
more dramatic rewilding project
駭人又毛茸茸的的長毛象帶回來?
these terrifying woolly mammoths?
are the closest relative
genetically very close.
in evolutionary history.
are closer to woolly mammoths
to African elephants
with George Church at Harvard,
for four major traits
長毛象基因組取出,
genome of the woolly mammoth,
"ancient DNA analysis."
移植到活的亞洲象細胞株中,
into living Asian elephant cell lines,
它們在那裡找到適合它們的地方。
their proper place thanks to CRISPR.
把基因注射進去。
like you did with genetic engineering.
基本上你可以編輯一組對偶基因,
basically, one allele,
of another allele.
Asian elephant germline cells
你現在讓亞洲象的生殖細胞
of the traits that you're going for
a surrogate mother,
by conservation biologists,
curly-trunked, Asian elephant
in the sub-Arctic.
to get them there?
they don't like snow, right?"
bigger than people.
有象鼻,能從小雪球開始玩起,
you can start a little thing,
is tricky business, anyway.
是很難處理的事。
the surrogate Asian elephant mothers?"
says, "That's all right.
來孕育牠們。」
and grow them that way."
「是啊,也許下個世紀吧」
next century, maybe,"
《自然》刊出一則新聞,
this week in Nature
在人工子宮中培育出一隻小羊了,
in which they've grown a lamb
its gestation period.
want a world where --
thousands of these things
在研究長毛象:
working on the woolly mammoth seriously:
我們也算參與其中;
we're kind of in the middle;
喬治 · 秋吉團隊;
that are doing the genetics in the lab;
老科學家,吉莫夫,
old scientist named Zimov
who has bought into the system,
Zimov have been, for 25 years,
"Pleistocene Park,"
非常嚴峻的地區,是純凍原。
of Siberia that is pure tundra.
可能只剩下過去的 1%
of the animals on the landscape there
we saw lots of animals.
and then there's the boreal forest.
那裡就只有一點點動物。
There's just a few animals there.
a lot of grazing animals:
也帶進來了一些野牛,
they're bringing in some bison,
that they used to be.
the moss, back into grassland.
並釋放許多二氧化碳,
and releasing a lot of carbon dioxide
25 平方英哩的面積,
25 square miles,
stabilization thing.
very absorbent to sunlight,
when snow is on the ground.
around the North Pole --
around the North Pole --
生物群落區之一,
biomes in the world,
由賽吉 · 吉莫夫和尼基塔
Sergey Zimov and Nikita
they got for nothing,
不會製造糞肥!」
"... and they make no dung!"
製造糞肥,包括長毛象。
animals do, including mammoths.
保育生物學家所稱的
what conservation biologists call
就像中國或任何地方的熊貓,
pandas in China or wherever --
那些動物的生活就會過得很好,
of making life good for that animal
of creatures and plants,
能夠自我管理的程度,
of being self-managing,
can back off and say,
給擋在外面就好,
the destructive invasives,
that you're dreaming of de-extincting
許多其他物種「反絕種」,
like to move on to
how mammoths might help
tropical rainforest,
地球綠化的這個問題上。
you've thought about a lot.
is one of the most awful curses
to climate change.
this graph here, or this map.
that you get from headlines
還有發生什麼其他的事,
calls "narrative violation."
「敘事違規」。
is master of putting it out there --
這方面的應用大師——
civilization-threatening
溫室氣體,尤其是二氧化碳,
of greenhouse gases, especially CO2,
but it's not the whole story,
than these fragmentary stories.
plus water via sunshine.
加上水,再透過日照。
industrialized greenhouses,
工業化的溫室中,
因為植物會把它轉為植物質。
turn that into plant matter.
做了一些研究,
with satellites and other things,
過去超過 33 年的狀況,
over the last 33 years or so,
leaf action going on.
「主要產物」。
what ecologists call "primary production."
goes up with this.
that is sucking it down
and goes right back up,
of what you need to bear in mind,
and engineering climate
tweaking around with the system
看會不會再變更好,
see it's still getting better,
back off half a turn.
「並非所有綠色植物都同樣重要。」
"Not all green is created equal."
犧牲了壯麗的雨林
the magnificence of the rainforest
綠色池塘浮渣或是草地之類的。
or grass or something like that.
每一種形式的植物都在增加。
every form of plant is increasing.
left out of this study
in the oceans.
可能才是最重要的事。
the most important thing.
that create the atmosphere
一直在堅持的事情之一;
James Lovelock has been insisting;
尤其是對海洋生命的認知,
especially of ocean life,
of too much CO2 in the atmosphere,
the ocean doing with that?
the sea level rise,
with more global warming.
to some of the coral reefs,
a lot of bleaching from overheating.
因為海水過熱而白化。
在我們前段主題正文所說的:
in our previous session on the main stage,
is worth experimenting with enough
所造成的影響爭取多少時間。
in the warming aspect of all of this,
but usable research,
do more than tweak.
we're going to talk about
was just published by Yuval Harari.
人類的演化是成為神祇。
of humans is to become as gods.
那你大概讀完這本書了。
And you've probably finished the book.
這是個非常極端的看法。
completely remake ourselves
根本上嶄新的歷史。
brand-new chapter of history.
likes provoking people.
I'm excited and nervous.
我總是興奮又緊張。
is trying hard to lean towards
part of me is saying,
be a little bit careful
isn't it, for TED?
a little bit schizophrenic.
一點小秘訣。
statement that you made
Whole Earth Catalog,
那就好好地做好祂。」
and might as well get good at it."
you've upgraded that statement.
is that documentation
到目前為止。
from somebody --
it hasn't forgiven me yet!
when somebody quoted it,
不是你寫在第一本,
what you originally wrote
那就一回生二回熟。』」
and might as well get used to it.'"
這些我們自己說出來的故事
the stories we tell ourselves
那就好好地做好祂。」
and might as well get good at it,"
called "Whole Earth Discipline:
基本上說明了我們如神一般的存在,
basically saying that we are as gods
那就好好地做好祂。
and have to get good at it.
很多人一聽到你說生化工程,
the psychological reaction
as you talk about geoengineering
is that humans should be gods --
narrative about hubris.
失序傲慢的希臘式敘述。
really sure of yourself,
(註:希臘神話中弒父娶母的人物)
cautionary tale to always have at hand.
I've kept for myself is:
I am dead wrong about.
with scientists these days,
looks pretty good,
of not only suspicions
away from fake news.
對環境上的應用:
of this just for the environment:
它似乎已變成一個態勢,
is that, whether we like it or not,
發生在地球上許多層面的事,
of what happens on planets,
doing it intentionally.
會是怎麼樣的情況?
getting good at being a god?
可以讓我們先進行或實驗嗎?
or systems we can nudge and play with?
(註:哲學/發明家)的導師
to Buckminster Fuller
and anthropologist and biologist
人類學家和生物學家,
basically look at themselves.
去觀察這些事情。
部分的你應該總是如此看待事情。
you want to always be looking at things.
地球工程方式的喜愛
approach to geoengineering
was talking about earlier --
really incrementally,
see how it responds,
呼應了人們所說的:
that people say, quite rightly,
how the climate system works.
you don't understand."
「那不就跟人類身體系統一樣,
applies to the human body,
先行,我們也慶幸如此。」
and we're kind of glad that it has."
that is so large and complex
an anti-hubristic approach.
和對話交流的論點,
and dialogue and all these other things
賽巴斯丁所說的事情那樣。
about earlier with Sebastian [Thrun].
正在尋求社會許可證,
is looking for social license,
that I think is a good one,
有深度的議題,
problematic, deep issues
paying close attention
as it's going forward,
as it's going forward --
更令人驚奇的——
which is fantastic --
that has worked pretty well so far.
但是到目前為止都行得通。
and I are optimistic is we read
「人性中的善良天使」,
"The Better Angels of Our Nature,"
of: things are capable of getting better,
事情可以變得更好,
that happen and apply those further.
並讓它更進一步。
對於抱持樂觀的重要性,
on that optimistic note,
are willing to challenge yourself
allowing yourself to be too certain
and inspiring, actually,
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Stewart Brand - Environmentalist, futuristSince the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ...
Why you should listen
With biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, the revival of extinct species is becoming possible. Stewart Brand plans to not only bring species back but restore them to the wild.
Brand is already a legend in the tech industry for things he’s created: the Whole Earth Catalog, The WELL, the Global Business Network, the Long Now Foundation, and the notion that “information wants to be free.” Now Brand, a lifelong environmentalist, wants to re-create -- or “de-extinct” -- a few animals that’ve disappeared from the planet.
Granted, resurrecting the woolly mammoth using ancient DNA may sound like mad science. But Brand’s Revive and Restore project has an entirely rational goal: to learn what causes extinctions so we can protect currently endangered species, preserve genetic and biological diversity, repair depleted ecosystems, and essentially “undo harm that humans have caused in the past.”
Stewart Brand | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.
Why you should listen
Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.
Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.
Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.
Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.
This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.
He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.
In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.
Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com