TED2010
Sebastian Wernicke: Lies, damned lies and statistics (about TEDTalks)
關於 TEDTalks 的謊言與統計數據
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在這份絕妙且充滿幽默的分析裡，Sebastian Wernicke 將統計分析應用在 TEDTalk 裡，根據聽眾所做的評比，發展出一套可製作出最好的 TEDTalk 的工具。你會怎麼評價這個演說呢？「驚訝得合不攏嘴？」「毫無根據？」還是只是純粹「有趣」而已？
Sebastian Wernicke - Data scientist
After making a splash in the field of bioinformatics, Sebastian Wernicke moved on to the corporate sphere, where he motivates and manages multidimensional projects. Full bio
After making a splash in the field of bioinformatics, Sebastian Wernicke moved on to the corporate sphere, where he motivates and manages multidimensional projects. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
If you go on the TED website,
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若你上 TED 的網站，
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you can currently find there
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你會看到
00:21
over a full week of TEDTalk videos,
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超過一整星期的 TEDTalk 影片，
00:24
over 1.3 million
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超過13億字
00:26
words of transcripts
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的字幕。
00:28
and millions of user ratings.
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還有百萬以上的使用者評比，
00:30
And that's a huge amount of data.
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資料量很龐大。
00:33
And it got me wondering:
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所以我在想，
00:35
If you took all this data
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如果你把這些資料
00:37
and put it through statistical analysis,
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進行統計分析，
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could you reverse engineer a TEDTalk?
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你可不可能反向製作出一個 TEDTalk？
00:41
Could you create
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還是你可以創造出
00:43
the ultimate TEDTalk?
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一個「最棒的」TEDTalk？
00:45
(Laughter) (Applause)
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（掌聲）
00:47
And also, could you create
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還是說，你可以製作出
00:49
the worst possible TEDTalk
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一個最爛的 TEDTalk，
00:51
that they would still let you get away with?
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而且還可以全身而退？
00:53
To find this out, I looked at three things:
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為了找到解答，我選擇三個層面來分析。
00:55
I looked at the topic that you should choose,
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我先看該選什麼當做演說的標題，
00:57
I looked at how you should deliver it
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再來看看在台上該怎麼表達，
01:00
and the visuals onstage.
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以及該使用什麼視覺輔助。
01:02
Now, with the topic: There's a whole range of topics you can choose,
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先來說標題，你可以選的標題範圍很廣，
01:05
but you should choose wisely,
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但你應該謹慎地選擇，
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because your topic strongly correlates
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因為你所選定的標題，
01:09
with how users will react to your talk.
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將會嚴重影響聽眾對你演說的反應。
01:12
Now, to make this more concrete,
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為了讓你更明白一點，
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let's look at the list of top 10 words
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讓我們先來看看篩選出來的前十名最佳字句，
01:17
that statistically stick out
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這是統計分析的結果，
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in the most favorite TEDTalks
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是分別從聽眾最喜愛的 TEDTalk，
01:21
and in the least favorite TEDTalks.
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和聽眾最不喜愛的 TEDTalk 中所篩選出來的。
01:24
So if you came here
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所以，如果你到這兒來，
01:26
to talk about how French coffee
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發表一個主題是「法國咖啡如何
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will spread happiness in our brains,
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在我們的大腦裡傳播快樂」的演說，
01:31
that's a go.
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那就對了！
01:33
(Laughter) (Applause)
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（掌聲）
01:35
Whereas, if you wanted to talk about
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但是，如果你的主題
01:37
your project involving
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是敘述你所從事的專案計畫，
01:39
oxygen, girls, aircraft --
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內容與氧氣、女孩、飛機等字眼有關，
01:41
actually, I would like to hear that talk, (Laughter)
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我個人其實還滿想聽這種演說的，
01:43
but statistics say it's not so good.
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但統計數據卻告訴我們這不夠吸引人。
01:45
Oh, well.
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嗯, 好。
01:47
If you generalize this,
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如果我們廣泛地推論，
01:49
the most favorite TEDTalks are those
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最受歡迎的 TEDTalk 所談論的主題，
01:51
that feature topics we can connect with,
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是聽眾容易與之產生共鳴的，
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both easily and deeply,
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既簡單而又深入，
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such as happiness, our own body,
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像是快樂、我們的身體、
01:58
food, emotions.
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食物和情緒等。
02:00
And the more technical topics,
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而比較技術性的主題，
02:02
such as architecture, materials and, strangely enough, men,
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像是建築、材料、還有 – 這非常的奇怪 – 男人，
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those are not good topics to talk about.
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這些就不是那麼受歡迎的主題。
02:08
How should you deliver your talk?
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該怎麼進行演說呢？
02:10
TED is famous for keeping
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TED 最負盛名的是
02:12
a very sharp eye on the clock,
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對演說者時間的嚴格掌控，
02:14
so they're going to hate me
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所以他們會很討厭我告訴你們這一點，
02:16
for revealing this, because, actually,
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因為根據統計，
02:18
you should talk as long as they will let you. (Laughter)
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你應該在他們允取你的時間範圍內，說得愈長愈好，
02:20
Because the most favorite TEDTalks
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因為最受歡迎的 TEDTalk，
02:23
are, on average, over 50 percent longer
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平均比最不受歡迎的演說，
02:25
than the least favorite ones.
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時間長上一半。
02:28
And this holds true for all ranking lists on TED.com
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這是 TED.com 的排行榜告訴我們的事實，
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except if you want to have a talk
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除非你的演說是
02:32
that's beautiful, inspiring or funny.
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優美的、具啟發性的或是有趣的，
02:34
Then, you should be brief. (Laughter) But other than that,
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那麼，你應該簡潔些。不然的話，
02:36
talk until they drag you off the stage.
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你應該一直說到他們要把你拖下台為止。
02:39
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:41
Now, while ...
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嗯，好..
02:43
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
02:49
While you're pushing the clock, there's a few rules to obey.
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在你爭取更多演說時間的同時，還有幾項規則要遵守。
02:52
I found these rules out by comparing the statistics
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我會發現這些規則，
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of four-word phrases
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是因為我統計了演說中所出現的辭句，
02:56
that appear more often in the most favorite TEDTalks
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看看哪些在最受歡迎的 TEDTalk 中較常出現，
02:59
as opposed to the least favorite TEDTalks.
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哪些又在最不受歡迎的 TEDTalk 中出現。
03:01
I'll give you three examples.
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我會舉三個例子說明。
03:03
First of all, I must, as a speaker,
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首先，身為一個演說者，
03:05
provide a service to the audience and talk about what I will give you,
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我必須提供我所知道的資訊給聽眾，
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instead of saying what I can't have.
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而不是告訴聽眾我不知道什麼。
03:10
Secondly, it's imperative
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第二，要記住
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that you do not cite The New York Times.
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不要引用紐約時報的報導。
03:14
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:16
And finally, it's okay for the speaker -- that's the good news --
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最後，我要告訴你們一個好消息，
03:19
to fake intellectual capacity.
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要學會不懂裝懂。
03:21
If I don't understand something, I can just say, "etc., etc."
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如果不瞭解某件事，就用「諸如此類...」來矇混過去。
03:24
You'll all stay with me.
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你們都知道我在說什麼吧!
03:26
It's perfectly fine.
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這樣很好啊！
03:28
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
03:32
Now, let's go to the visuals.
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現在我們來談談視覺輔助。
03:34
The most obvious visual thing on stage is the speaker.
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在講台上最醒目的視覺標的應該就是演說者了。
03:37
And analysis shows if you want to be
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統計分析顯示，若你想成為
03:39
among the most favorite TED speakers,
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最受歡迎的 TED 演說者，
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you should let your hair grow a little bit longer than average,
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你應該把頭髮留得比一般人長一點，
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make sure you wear your glasses and be slightly more dressed-up
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記得戴上眼鏡，然後穿得比一般 TED 演說者
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than the average TED speaker.
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再正式一點，
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Slides are okay, though you might consider going for props.
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投影片可以用，但如果能有道具輔助會更好。
03:52
And now the most important thing,
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然而，最重要的事是
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that is the mood onstage.
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講台上的氣氛。
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Color plays a very important role.
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色彩佔有很重要的地位，
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Color closely correlates
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你選用的色彩會決定
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with the ratings that talks get on the website.
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你在網路上的評價
04:03
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
04:05
For example, fascinating talks
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舉例來說，被評價為「引人入勝」的 TEDTalk
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contain a statistically high amount
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都大量使用
04:09
of exactly this blue color, (Laughter)
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這種藍色，
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much more than the average TEDTalk.
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使用頻率比一般的 TEDTalk 高得多。
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Ingenious TEDTalks, much more this green color,
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被評價為「機智」的演說多是這種綠色，
04:15
etc., et.
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諸如此類...
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(Laughter) (Applause)
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（掌聲）
04:24
Now, personally, I think
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我個人覺得，
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I'm not the first one who has done this analysis,
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我應該不是第一個做這種分析的人，
04:28
but I'll leave this
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但這留給你們
04:30
to your good judgment.
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自己判斷吧！
04:33
So, now it's time to put it all together
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現在該是我們把所有東西拼湊在一起
04:35
and design the ultimate TEDTalk.
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製作出最棒的 TEDTalk 的時候了。
04:37
Now, since this is TEDActive,
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由於這是 TEDActive，
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and I learned from my analysis
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從我研究的統計資料裡，
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that I should actually give you something,
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我知道我該給你們一些實際的東西，
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I will not impose the ultimate
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我不會強迫你們做出最棒的
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or worst TEDTalk on you,
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或是最爛的 TEDTalk，
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but rather give you a tool to create your own.
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但我會給你們一套工具讓你們製作出自己的演說。
04:49
And I call this tool the TEDPad.
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我把這個工具命名為 TED Pad。
04:52
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
04:55
And the TEDPad is a matrix
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TED Pad 內含有
04:57
of 100 specifically selected,
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100 組精選語句，
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highly curated sentences
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你可以善加組合，
05:02
that you can easily piece together to get your own TEDTalk.
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製作出你自己的 TEDTalk。
05:07
You only have to make one decision,
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你所要做的決定只有一個，
05:09
and that is: Are you going to use the white version
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那就是：你是要使用白色的版本
05:11
for very good TEDTalks,
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來製作出優質的 TEDTalk，
05:13
about creativity, human genius?
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內容關於創造力、人類的才華？
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Or are you going to go with a black version,
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還是你想要選用黑色的版本？
05:17
which will allow you to create really bad TEDTalks,
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那讓你可以製作出超爛的 TEDTalk，
05:19
mostly about blogs,
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內容大部分涵蓋部落格
05:21
politics and stuff?
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還有政治這些玩意兒。
05:23
So, download it and have fun with it.
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現在就下載，好好玩一玩吧！
05:25
Now I hope you enjoy the session.
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希望你們喜歡我的演說。
05:28
I hope you enjoy designing your own
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也希望你們喜歡自己製作出來的
05:30
ultimate and worst possible TEDTalks.
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最棒及最爛的 TEDTalk。
05:32
And I hope some of you will be inspired for next year
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也希望你們之中有人會受到啟發，
05:35
to create this, which I really want to see.
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明年可以站在台上，我真的很期待你們的演說。
05:38
Thank you very much.
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謝謝你們。
05:40
(Applause) Thanks.
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sebastian Wernicke - Data scientistAfter making a splash in the field of bioinformatics, Sebastian Wernicke moved on to the corporate sphere, where he motivates and manages multidimensional projects.
Why you should listen
Dr. Sebastian Wernicke is the Chief Data Scientist of ONE LOGIC, a data science boutique that supports organizations across industries to make sense of their vast data collections to improve operations and gain strategic advantages. Wernicke originally studied bioinformatics and previously led the strategy and growth of Seven Bridges Genomics, a Cambridge-based startup that builds platforms for genetic analysis.
Before his career in statistics began, Wernicke worked stints as both a paramedic and successful short animated filmmaker. He's also the author of the TEDPad app, an irreverent tool for creating an infinite number of "amazing and really bad" and mostly completely meaningless talks. He's the author of the statistically authoritative and yet completely ridiculous "How to Give the Perfect TEDTalk."
Sebastian Wernicke | Speaker | TED.com