TED2009
P.W. Singer: Military robots and the future of war
PW Singer despre roboții militari și viitorul războaielor
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În acest discurs animat, P.W. Singer demonstrează cum utilizarea pe scară largă a roboților în războaie modifică realitățile conflictelor militare. El ne arată scenarii desprinse din science fiction - care s-ar putea sa nu fie chiar atât de fictive.
P.W. Singer - Military analyst
In P.W. Singer's most recent book, "Wired for War," he studies robotic and drone warfighters -- and explores how these new war machines are changing the very nature of human conflict. He has also written on other facets of modern war, including private armies and child soldiers. Full bio
In P.W. Singer's most recent book, "Wired for War," he studies robotic and drone warfighters -- and explores how these new war machines are changing the very nature of human conflict. He has also written on other facets of modern war, including private armies and child soldiers. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I thought I'd begin with a scene of war.
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M-am gândit să încep cu o scenă de război.
00:18
There was little to warn of the danger ahead.
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Nimic nu anunța pericolul iminent.
00:20
The Iraqi insurgent had placed the IED,
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Insurgentul irakian plasase
00:22
an Improvised Explosive Device,
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bomba artizanală
00:25
along the side of the road with great care.
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la marginea șoselei, cu mare grijă.
00:27
By 2006, there were more than 2,500
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Până în 2006 aveau loc mai mult de 2.500
00:31
of these attacks every single month,
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de astfel de atacuri, lunar,
00:34
and they were the leading cause of
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ele fiind cauza principală a
00:36
casualties among American soldiers
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victimelor din rândul soldaților americani
00:38
and Iraqi civilians.
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și a civililor irakieni.
00:40
The team that was hunting for this IED
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Echipa care căuta această bombă
00:42
is called an EOD team—
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era o echipă IDE -
00:44
Explosives Ordinance Disposal—and
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(Înlăturarea Dispozitivelor Explozive) -
00:46
they're the pointy end of the spear in the
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ei sunt cei aflați în avangarda
00:48
American effort to suppress these roadside bombs.
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efortului american de a înlătura acest tip de bombă.
00:51
Each EOD team goes out on about
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Fiecare echipă IDE răspunde la circa
00:53
600 of these bomb calls every year,
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600 de apeluri cu bombă pe an,
00:55
defusing about two bombs a day.
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dezamorsând două bombe pe zi.
00:58
Perhaps the best sign of how valuable they
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Valoarea acestor echipe în război
01:00
are to the war effort, is that
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e demonstrată de faptul că
01:02
the Iraqi insurgents put a $50,000 bounty
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insurgenții irakieni oferă o recompensă de $50.000
01:04
on the head of a single EOD soldier.
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pe capul unui soldat din echipa IDE.
01:07
Unfortunately, this particular call
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Din păcate, această misiune
01:09
would not end well.
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nu s-a încheiat cu bine.
01:11
By the time the soldier advanced close
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Până ce soldatul să se apropie destul
01:13
enough to see the telltale wires
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încât să vadă firele bombei,
01:15
of the bomb, it exploded in a wave of flame.
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aceasta a explodat într-un val de flăcări.
01:18
Now, depending how close you are
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Depinzând de distanță
01:20
and how much explosive has been packed
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și de cantitatea de explozibil conţinută de bombă
01:22
into that bomb, it can cause death
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aceasta poate cauza moarte
01:24
or injury. You have to be as far as
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sau leziuni. Trebuie să fii la cel puțin
01:26
50 yards away to escape that.
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45 de metri depărtare pentru a scăpa.
01:28
The blast is so strong it can even break
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Forța exploziei e atât de mare încât îți poate rupe
01:30
your limbs, even if you're not hit.
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membrele chiar în absența impactului.
01:32
That soldier had been on top of the bomb.
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Acel soldat era deasupra bombei.
01:34
And so when the rest of the team advanced
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Când restul echipei a avansat
01:37
they found little left. And that night the unit's
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nu au găsit prea multe rămășițe. În acea noapte,
01:39
commander did a sad duty, and he wrote
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comandantul a avut sarcina dificilă de a scrie
01:41
a condolence letter back to the United
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o scrisoare de condoleanțe în Statele Unite
01:43
States, and he talked about how hard the
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și a vorbit despre cât de dureroasă
01:45
loss had been on his unit, about the fact
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a fost pierderea pentru unitatea lui,
01:47
that they had lost their bravest soldier,
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că au pierdut cel mai curajos soldat al lor,
01:49
a soldier who had saved their lives
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un soldat care le salvase viețile
01:51
many a time.
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de nenumărate ori.
01:53
And he apologized
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Apoi comandatul a cerut iertare
01:55
for not being able to bring them home.
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pentru că nu putea să-l aducă acasă.
01:57
But then he talked up the silver lining
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Dar apoi a vorbit despre lecția
01:59
that he took away from the loss.
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primită în urma pierderii.
02:01
"At least," as he wrote, "when a robot dies,
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„Cel puțin, când un robot moare,
02:03
you don't have to write a letter
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nu trebuie să scrii o scrisoare
02:05
to its mother."
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mamei sale”.
02:07
That scene sounds like science fiction,
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Scena pare desprinsă dintr-un SF,
02:09
but is battlefield reality already.
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dar e realitatea câmpului de luptă.
02:11
The soldier in that case
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În acel caz, soldatul
02:14
was a 42-pound robot called a PackBot.
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era un robot de 19 kg numit PackBot.
02:17
The chief's letter went, not to some
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Scrisoarea nu era destinată
02:20
farmhouse in Iowa like you see
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vreunei ferme din Iowa cum vedem
02:22
in the old war movies, but went to
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în filmele vechi de război, ci companiei
02:25
the iRobot Company, which is
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iRobot,
02:27
named after the Asimov novel
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numită după romanul lui Asimov
02:30
and the not-so-great Will Smith movie,
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şi după mai puţin reuşitul film cu Will Smith,
02:32
and... um... (Laughter)...
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şi... ăăă... (Râsete)...
02:34
if you remember that
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Dacă vă amintiţi,
02:36
in that fictional world, robots started out
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în literatură, roboţii au început prin a îndeplini
02:38
carrying out mundane chores, and then
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sarcini obișnuite și abia apoi
02:40
they started taking on life-and-death decisions.
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au luat decizii de viață și de moarte.
02:42
That's a reality we face today.
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Asta e realitatea de azi.
02:44
What we're going to do is actually just
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Vom arăta o serie
02:46
flash a series of photos behind me that
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de fotografii în spatele meu
02:48
show you the reality of robots used in war
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despre roboții folosiți în războaie
02:51
right now or already at the prototype stage.
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acum sau care sunt în stadiul de prototip -
02:53
It's just to give you a taste.
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ca să vă faceți o idee.
02:56
Another way of putting it is you're not
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Nu veți vedea nimic
02:58
going to see anything that's powered
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operat de
03:00
by Vulcan technology, or teenage
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tehnologia Vulcan sau
03:02
wizard hormones or anything like that.
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hormoni adolescentini sau orice altceva.
03:04
This is all real. So why don't we
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E real. Să-i dăm drumul
03:06
go ahead and start those pictures.
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și să vedem fotografiile.
03:08
Something big is going on in war today,
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Ceva important are loc în război azi
03:10
and maybe even the history of humanity
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și posibil în istoria umanității.
03:12
itself. The U.S. military went into Iraq with
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Trupele SUA au mers în Irak cu
03:15
a handful of drones in the air.
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câteva drone.
03:17
We now have 5,300.
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Acum avem 5.300.
03:20
We went in with zero unmanned ground
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Nu aveam niciun sistem operat automat.
03:22
systems. We now have 12,000.
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Acum avem 12.000.
03:26
And the tech term "killer application"
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Termenul de „aplicație mortală”
03:28
takes on new meaning in this space.
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are alt sens în acest context.
03:31
And we need to remember that we're
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Să ținem minte că
03:33
talking about the Model T Fords,
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vorbim de modelul Ford T,
03:35
the Wright Flyers, compared
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o variantă depășită
03:37
to what's coming soon.
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în comparație cu cele din viitor.
03:39
That's where we're at right now.
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Aici ne aflăm acum.
03:41
One of the people that I recently met with
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Am făcut cunoștință recent cu
03:43
was an Air Force three-star general, and he
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un general al Forțelor Aeriene triplu decorat, care
03:45
said basically, where we're headed very
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a spus că în curând
03:47
soon is tens of thousands of robots
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mii de roboți
03:49
operating in our conflicts, and these
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vor lua parte la conflicte.
03:51
numbers matter, because we're not just
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Aceste cifre contează fiindcă nu vorbim doar
03:53
talking about tens of thousands of today's
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de zeci de mii de roboți de azi,
03:55
robots, but tens of thousands of these
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ci despre zeci de mii de prototipuri
03:57
prototypes and tomorrow's robots, because
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și roboți de mâine, fiindcă
03:59
of course, one of the things that's operating
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una dintre regulile valabile
04:02
in technology is Moore's Law,
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în tehnologie e legea lui Moore -
04:04
that you can pack in more and more
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poți introduce tot mai multă
04:06
computing power into those robots, and so
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putere de procesare în roboți, astfel încât
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flash forward around 25 years,
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în 25 de ani,
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if Moore's Law holds true,
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dacă legea lui Moore e valabilă,
04:12
those robots will be close to a billion times
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acești roboți vor avea de un miliard de ori
04:15
more powerful in their computing than today.
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mai multă putere de procesare decât azi.
04:18
And so what that means is the kind of
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Asta înseamnă că lucrurile
04:20
things that we used to only talk about at
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dezbătute doar la convenții
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science fiction conventions like Comic-Con
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de SF, gen Comic-Con,
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have to be talked about in the halls
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vor fi discutate pe coridoarele
04:26
of power and places like the Pentagon.
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unor locuri precum Pentagonul.
04:28
A robots revolution is upon us.
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Revoluția roboților e iminentă.
04:31
Now, I need to be clear here.
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Vreau să mă înțelegeți bine.
04:33
I'm not talking about a revolution where you
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Nu vorbesc despre o revoluție
04:35
have to worry about the Governor of
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în care guvernatorul
04:37
California showing up at your door,
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Californiei apare la ușa voastră,
04:39
a la the Terminator. (Laughter)
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à la Terminator. (Râsete)
04:41
When historians look at this period, they're
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Când istoricii vor studia această perioadă
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going to conclude that we're in a different
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vor concluziona ca experimentăm o altfel
04:45
type of revolution: a revolution in war,
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de revoluție: o revoluție a războiului,
04:47
like the invention of the atomic bomb.
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de magnitudinea inventării bombei atomice.
04:49
But it may be even bigger than that,
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Dar s-ar putea să fie și mai măreață,
04:51
because our unmanned systems don't just
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fiidncă sistemele operate automat nu
04:53
affect the "how" of war-fighting,
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influențează desfășurarea războaielor
04:55
they affect the "who" of fighting
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ci și pe combatanți
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at its most fundamental level.
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la un nivel profund.
04:59
That is, every previous revolution in war, be
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Fiecare revoluție militară din trecut, fie că e vorba
05:01
it the machine gun, be it the atomic bomb,
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de apariția mitralierei sau a bombei atomice
05:03
was about a system that either shot faster,
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aducea ceva care trăgea mai repede,
05:06
went further, had a bigger boom.
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mergea mai departe sau exploda mai tare.
05:09
That's certainly the case with robotics, but
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Așa e și în robotică, dar ea schimbă
05:12
they also change the experience of the warrior
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și experiența războinicului,
05:15
and even the very identity of the warrior.
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și identitatea acestuia.
05:18
Another way of putting this is that
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Altfel spus,
05:21
mankind's 5,000-year-old monopoly
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monopolul de 5000 de ani al omenirii
05:23
on the fighting of war is breaking down
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asupra războiului dispare
05:26
in our very lifetime. I've spent
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sub ochii noștri.
05:28
the last several years going around
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În ultimii ani, i-am întâlnit
05:30
meeting with all the players in this field,
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pe toți actorii din domeniu:
05:32
from the robot scientists to the science
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oamenii de știință din robotică,
05:34
fiction authors who inspired them to the
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autorii de SF care i-au inspirat,
05:36
19-year-old drone pilots who are fighting
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până la piloții de 19 ani ai dronelor
05:38
from Nevada, to the four-star generals
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ce luptă din Nevada și generalii de 4 stele
05:40
who command them, to even the Iraqi
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care-i comandă, precum și
05:42
insurgents who they are targeting and what
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pe insurgenții irakieni care erau ţinta și
05:44
they think about our systems, and
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care îmi spuneau ce cred despre sistemele noastre.
05:46
what I found interesting is not just
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Mi se pare interesant
05:48
their stories, but how their experiences
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cum experiențele lor
05:50
point to these ripple effects that are going
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au creat acest efect de domino
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outwards in our society, in our law
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în societatea noastră, în legislație,
05:54
and our ethics, etc. And so what I'd like
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etică etc.
05:56
to do with my remaining time is basically
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În timpul rămas, vreau să ilustrez
05:58
flesh out a couple of these.
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o parte din aceste efecte.
06:00
So the first is that the future of war,
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În primul rând, viitorul războiului,
06:02
even a robotics one, is not going to be
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fie și unul robotic, nu va fi
06:04
purely an American one.
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unul eminamente american.
06:06
The U.S. is currently ahead in military
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În prezent, SUA conduc
06:08
robotics right now, but we know that in
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în robotică militară, dar știm că
06:10
technology there's no such thing as
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în tehnologie nu există
06:12
a permanent first move or advantage.
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avantajul primei mutări.
06:15
In a quick show of hands, how many
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Să ridice mâna
06:17
people in this room still use
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cei care mai folosesc
06:19
Wang Computers? (Laughter)
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calculatoarele Wang? (Râsete)
06:21
It's the same thing in war. The British and
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Așa e și în război. Britanicii
06:23
the French invented the tank.
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și francezii au inventat tancul.
06:26
The Germans figured out how
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Germanii și-au dat seama
06:28
to use it right, and so what we have to
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cum să îl folosească eficient.
06:30
think about for the U.S. is that we are
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SUA dețin deocamdată avantajul,
06:32
ahead right now, but you have
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dar există alte
06:34
43 other countries out there
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43 de țări
06:36
working on military robotics, and they
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care dezvoltă robotică militară,
06:38
include all the interesting countries like
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inclusiv țări „interesante” precum
06:40
Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran.
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Rusia, China, Pakistan, Iran.
06:43
And this raises a bigger worry for me.
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Tocmai asta mă îngrijorează.
06:46
How do we move forward in this revolution
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Cum să avansăm în această revoluţie
06:48
given the state of our manufacturing
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dat fiind nivelul producției
06:50
and the state of our science and
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și pregătirea științifică
06:52
mathematics training in our schools?
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și matematică din școlile noastre?
06:54
Or another way of thinking about this is,
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Altfel spus,
06:56
what does it mean to go to war increasingly
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ce înseamnă să mergi la război
06:58
with soldiers whose hardware is made
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cu soldați al căror hardware e făcut
07:01
in China and software is written in India?
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în China, iar softul e scris în India?
07:06
But just as software has gone open-source,
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Tot așa cum softurile sunt open-source,
07:09
so has warfare.
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așa e și războiul.
07:11
Unlike an aircraft carrier or an atomic bomb,
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Spre deosebire de un portavion sau o bombă atomică,
07:14
you don't need a massive manufacturing
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nu ai nevoie de sisteme de producție mari
07:16
system to build robotics. A lot of it is
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ca să construiești roboți. Materialele
07:18
off the shelf. A lot of it's even do-it-yourself.
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pot fi cumpărate și asamblate de oricine.
07:20
One of those things you just saw flashed
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Tocmai ați văzut pe ecran
07:22
before you was a raven drone, the handheld
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o dronă Raven, ce poate fi lansată
07:24
tossed one. For about a thousand dollars,
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cu mâna. Pentru o mie de dolari,
07:26
you can build one yourself, equivalent to
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poți să construiești una,
07:28
what the soldiers use in Iraq.
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similară celor folosite în Irak.
07:30
That raises another wrinkle when it comes
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Asta ridică altă problemă când vine vorba de război și conflict.
07:32
to war and conflict. Good guys might play
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Băieții buni se pot juca cu dronele,
07:34
around and work on these as hobby kits,
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ca hobby,
07:36
but so might bad guys.
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dar la fel pot face și băieții răi.
07:38
This cross between robotics and things like
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Legătura din robotică și terorism
07:40
terrorism is going to be fascinating
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va fi fascinantă,
07:42
and even disturbing,
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dar mai ales îngrijorătoare.
07:44
and we've already seen it start.
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Am văzut deja ce se întâmplă.
07:46
During the war between Israel, a state,
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În războiul dintre Israel, un stat
07:48
and Hezbollah, a non-state actor,
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și Hezbollah, un actor nestatal,
07:51
the non-state actor flew
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al doilea a trimis
07:53
four different drones against Israel.
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4 drone în Israel.
07:55
There's already a jihadi website
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Există un site fundamentalist,
07:57
that you can go on and remotely
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de unde poți detona
07:59
detonate an IED in Iraq while sitting
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o bombă artizanală în Irak,
08:01
at your home computer.
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din fața propriului PC.
08:03
And so I think what we're going to see is
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Cred că vor apărea
08:05
two trends take place with this.
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două tendințe.
08:07
First is, you're going to reinforce the power
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Prima: puterea indivizilor
08:09
of individuals against governments,
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asupra guvernelor va crește.
08:13
but then the second is that
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Dar vom asista
08:15
we are going to see an expansion
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la o exacerbare
08:17
in the realm of terrorism.
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a terorismului.
08:19
The future of it may be a cross between
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Terorismul viitorului poate fi
08:21
al Qaeda 2.0 and the
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o combinație dintre Al-Qaeda 2.0
08:23
next generation of the Unabomber.
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și viitoarea generație Unabomber.
08:25
And another way of thinking about this
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Să reținem că
08:27
is the fact that, remember, you don't have
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nu trebuie
08:29
to convince a robot that they're gonna
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să convingi un robot
08:31
receive 72 virgins after they die
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că va primi 72 de virgine după ce moare
08:34
to convince them to blow themselves up.
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ca să se arunce în aer.
08:37
But the ripple effects of this are going to go
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Efectele se vor vedea
08:39
out into our politics. One of the people that
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și în politică. M-am întâlnit
08:41
I met with was a former Assistant Secretary of
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cu un fost secretar adjunct de la Apărare
08:43
Defense for Ronald Reagan, and he put it
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de pe vremea lui Reagan, care mi-a spus:
08:45
this way: "I like these systems because
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"Îmi plac sistemele astea fiindcă
08:47
they save American lives, but I worry about
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salvează viețile soldaților, dar mă îngrijorează
08:49
more marketization of wars,
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comercializarea războaielor,
08:51
more shock-and-awe talk,
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discursurile care produc frică
08:54
to defray discussion of the costs.
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pentru a evita discuțiile despre costuri.
08:56
People are more likely to support the use
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Oamenii tind să susțină folosirea
08:58
of force if they view it as costless."
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forței dacă o percep ca fiind gratuită.”
09:01
Robots for me take certain trends
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Roboții ilustrează câteva tendințe
09:03
that are already in play in our body politic,
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deja vizibile printre politicieni,
09:06
and maybe take them to
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și poate vor pune capăt
09:08
their logical ending point.
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acestor tendințe.
09:10
We don't have a draft. We don't
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Nu mai recrutăm soldați.
09:12
have declarations of war anymore.
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Nu mai există declarații de război.
09:15
We don't buy war bonds anymore.
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Nu mai cumpărăm obligațiuni de război.
09:17
And now we have the fact that we're
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Și acum,
09:19
converting more and more of our American
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din ce în ce mai mulți soldați americani
09:21
soldiers that we would send into harm's
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care ar fi trimiși să înfrunte pericolul
09:23
way into machines, and so we may take
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sunt înlocuiți de mașini.
09:26
those already lowering bars to war
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Am putea să luăm armele
09:29
and drop them to the ground.
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3000
și să le punem jos.
09:32
But the future of war is also going to be
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Dar războiul viitorului va fi
09:34
a YouTube war.
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unul pe Youtube.
09:36
That is, our new technologies don't merely
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Noile tehnologii nu doar că
09:38
remove humans from risk.
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2000
nu mai pun oamenii în pericol,
09:40
They also record everything that they see.
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ele înregistrează tot ce văd.
09:43
So they don't just delink the public:
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Nu numai că îndepărtează publicul,
09:46
they reshape its relationship with war.
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ele redefinesc relația lui cu războiul.
09:49
There's already several thousand
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2000
Există deja câteva mii
09:51
video clips of combat footage from Iraq
259
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2000
de înregistrări ale luptelor din Irak
09:53
on YouTube right now,
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2000
disponibile pe YouTube,
09:55
most of it gathered by drones.
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majoritatea strânse de drone.
09:57
Now, this could be a good thing.
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2000
Ar putea fi un lucru bun.
09:59
It could be building connections between
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2000
S-ar putea crea o legătură
10:01
the home front and the war front
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2000
cu totul nouă
10:03
as never before.
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între acasă și front.
10:05
But remember, this is taking place
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Dar totul are loc
10:07
in our strange, weird world, and so
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3000
în lumea noastră bizară
10:10
inevitably the ability to download these
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2000
și posibilitatea de a descărca
10:12
video clips to, you know, your iPod
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2000
videoclipurile pe iPod
10:14
or your Zune gives you
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3000
sau pe Zune le transformă
10:17
the ability to turn it into entertainment.
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4000
într-o formă de amuzament.
10:21
Soldiers have a name for these clips.
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2000
Soldații numesc aceste imagini
10:23
They call it war porn.
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„pornografie de război”.
10:25
The typical one that I was sent was
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2000
Am primit un videoclip tipic
10:27
an email that had an attachment of
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2000
ataşat unui email -
10:29
video of a Predator strike taking out
276
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2000
un videoclip cu o dronă Predator atacând
10:31
an enemy site. Missile hits,
277
616000
2000
inamicul. Rachete explodează,
10:33
bodies burst into the air with the explosion.
278
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3000
bucăți din corp zboară în aer.
10:36
It was set to music.
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2000
Totul pe un fond sonor,
10:38
It was set to the pop song
280
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2000
era un cântec pop,
10:40
"I Just Want To Fly" by Sugar Ray.
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3000
„I Just Want To Fly” - „Vreau doar să zbor”, al lui Sugar Ray.
10:43
This ability to watch more
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3000
Posibilitatea de a vedea mai mult
10:46
but experience less creates a wrinkle
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3000
și a experimenta mai puțin
10:49
in the public's relationship with war.
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2000
denaturează percepția asupra războiului.
10:51
I think about this with a sports parallel.
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2000
Să facem o paralelă cu sportul.
10:53
It's like the difference between
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638000
3000
E ca și cum vezi
10:56
watching an NBA game, a professional
287
641000
3000
un meci profesionist de baschet
10:59
basketball game on TV, where the athletes
288
644000
3000
din NBA la televizor, unde atleții
11:02
are tiny figures on the screen, and
289
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2000
sunt nişte siluete mici pe ecran,
11:04
being at that basketball game in person
290
649000
3000
dar dacă urmărești meciul din sală
11:07
and realizing what someone seven feet
291
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2000
îți dai seama cum arată
11:09
really does look like.
292
654000
2000
cineva de 2 metri.
11:11
But we have to remember,
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2000
Trebuie să ne amintim
11:13
these are just the clips.
294
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2000
că astea sunt doar niște videoclipuri.
11:15
These are just the ESPN SportsCenter
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660000
2000
E versiunea ESPN SportsCentre
11:17
version of the game. They lose the context.
296
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2000
a jocului. Contextul se pierde.
11:19
They lose the strategy.
297
664000
2000
Strategia dispare.
11:21
They lose the humanity. War just
298
666000
2000
Latura umană dispare.
11:23
becomes slam dunks and smart bombs.
299
668000
3000
Războiul se rezumă la marcarea unui gol
și bombe inteligente.
și bombe inteligente.
11:26
Now the irony of all this is that
300
671000
3000
Ironia e că
11:29
while the future of war may involve
301
674000
2000
în timp ce războiul poate implica
11:31
more and more machines,
302
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2000
din ce în ce mai multe mașini,
11:33
it's our human psychology that's driving
303
678000
2000
psihologia umană e cea care
11:35
all of this, it's our human failings
304
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2000
îl declașează, eșecurile oamenilor
11:37
that are leading to these wars.
305
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2000
duc la aceste războaie.
11:39
So one example of this that has
306
684000
2000
Un exemplu care
11:41
big resonance in the policy realm is
307
686000
2000
rezonează puternic în politică
11:43
how this plays out on our very real
308
688000
2000
e modul în care ne conducem
11:45
war of ideas that we're fighting
309
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2000
războiul ideologic
11:47
against radical groups.
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2000
împotriva grupărilor fundamentaliste.
11:49
What is the message that we think we are
311
694000
2000
Ce mesaj transmitem când
11:51
sending with these machines versus what
312
696000
2000
trimitem aceste mașini versus
11:53
is being received in terms of the message.
313
698000
3000
ce mesaj e primit?
11:56
So one of the people that I met was
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701000
2000
M-am întâlnit cu un fost
11:58
a senior Bush Administration official,
315
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2000
oficial al administrației Bush
12:00
who had this to say about
316
705000
2000
care mi-a spus asta
12:02
our unmanning of war:
317
707000
2000
despre automatizarea războiului:
12:04
"It plays to our strength. The thing that
318
709000
2000
„E un punct forte pentru noi. Oamenii
12:06
scares people is our technology."
319
711000
2000
se sperie de tehnologia noastră.”
12:08
But when you go out and meet with people,
320
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2000
Dar când întâlnești oamenii,
12:10
for example in Lebanon, it's a very
321
715000
2000
în Liban de exemplu, e o altă poveste.
12:12
different story. One of the people
322
717000
2000
Unul dintre oamenii
12:14
I met with there was a news editor, and
323
719000
2000
cu care m-am întâlnit era redactor
12:16
we're talking as a drone is flying above him,
324
721000
2000
și discutam, în timp ce o dronă zbura deasupra.
12:18
and this is what he had to say.
325
723000
2002
Mi-a zis:
12:20
"This is just another sign of the coldhearted
326
725002
1998
12:22
cruel Israelis and Americans,
327
727000
3006
12:25
who are cowards because
328
730006
1992
12:27
they send out machines to fight us.
329
731998
2006
12:29
They don't want to fight us like real men,
330
734004
1992
12:31
but they're afraid to fight,
331
735996
2007
12:33
so we just have to kill a few of their soldiers
332
738003
1991
12:35
to defeat them."
333
739994
3005
12:38
The future of war also is featuring
334
742999
2007
12:40
a new type of warrior,
335
745006
1977
12:42
and it's actually redefining the experience
336
746999
3006
12:45
of going to war.
337
750005
1998
12:47
You can call this a cubicle warrior.
338
752003
1976
12:49
This is what one Predator drone pilot
339
753994
2007
12:51
described of his experience fighting
340
756001
2007
12:53
in the Iraq War while never leaving Nevada.
341
758008
2989
12:56
"You're going to war for 12 hours,
342
760997
2005
12:58
shooting weapons at targets,
343
763002
1991
13:00
directing kills on enemy combatants,
344
765008
2991
13:03
and then you get in the car
345
767999
2006
13:05
and you drive home and within 20 minutes,
346
770005
1982
13:07
you're sitting at the dinner table
347
772003
1991
13:09
talking to your kids about their homework."
348
774009
1993
13:11
Now, the psychological balancing
349
776002
1991
13:13
of those experiences is incredibly tough,
350
778008
1993
13:15
and in fact those drone pilots have
351
780001
2992
13:18
higher rates of PTSD than many
352
782993
2008
13:20
of the units physically in Iraq.
353
785001
3005
13:23
But some have worries that this
354
788006
1992
13:25
disconnection will lead to something else,
355
789998
1994
13:27
that it might make the contemplation of war
356
792007
1998
13:29
crimes a lot easier when you have
357
794005
2005
13:31
this distance. "It's like a video game,"
358
796010
1999
13:33
is what one young pilot described to me
359
798009
1999
13:35
of taking out enemy troops from afar.
360
800008
1960
13:37
As anyone who's played Grand Theft Auto
361
801998
2995
13:40
knows, we do things in the video world
362
805008
3000
13:43
that we wouldn't do face to face.
363
808008
2996
13:46
So much of what you're hearing from me
364
811004
1998
13:48
is that there's another side
365
813002
1993
13:50
to technologic revolutions,
366
814995
2008
13:52
and that it's shaping our present
367
817003
1994
13:54
and maybe will shape our future of war.
368
818997
3001
13:57
Moore's Law is operative,
369
821998
2001
13:59
but so's Murphy's Law.
370
823999
1998
14:01
The fog of war isn't being lifted.
371
825997
2005
14:03
The enemy has a vote.
372
828002
2010
14:05
We're gaining incredible new capabilities,
373
830012
1989
14:07
but we're also seeing and experiencing
374
832001
2006
14:09
new human dilemmas. Now,
375
834007
2000
14:11
sometimes these are just "oops" moments,
376
836007
1999
14:13
which is what the head of a robotics
377
838006
1992
14:15
company described it, you just have
378
839998
2011
14:17
"oops" moments. Well, what are
379
842009
2000
14:19
"oops" moments with robots in war?
380
844009
1996
14:21
Well, sometimes they're funny. Sometimes,
381
846005
2001
14:23
they're like that scene from the
382
848006
2002
14:25
Eddie Murphy movie "Best Defense,"
383
850008
2001
14:27
playing out in reality, where they tested out
384
852009
2001
14:29
a machine gun-armed robot, and during
385
854010
1988
14:31
the demonstration it started spinning
386
855998
2001
14:33
in a circle and pointed its machine gun
387
857999
3009
14:36
at the reviewing stand of VIPs.
388
861008
2995
14:39
Fortunately the weapon wasn't loaded
389
864003
1993
14:41
and no one was hurt, but other times
390
865996
2010
14:43
"oops" moments are tragic,
391
868006
1992
14:45
such as last year in South Africa, where
392
869998
2002
14:47
an anti-aircraft cannon had a
393
872000
2999
14:50
"software glitch," and actually did turn on
394
874999
2999
14:53
and fired, and nine soldiers were killed.
395
877998
3004
14:56
We have new wrinkles in the laws of war
396
881002
2997
14:59
and accountability. What do we do
397
883999
1997
15:01
with things like unmanned slaughter?
398
885996
2010
15:03
What is unmanned slaughter?
399
888006
1998
15:05
We've already had three instances of
400
890004
2000
15:07
Predator drone strikes where we thought
401
892004
2000
15:09
we got bin Laden, and it turned out
402
894004
1994
15:11
not to be the case.
403
895998
2002
15:13
And this is where we're at right now.
404
898000
2008
15:15
This is not even talking about armed,
405
900008
2000
15:17
autonomous systems
406
902008
1989
15:19
with full authority to use force.
407
903997
2013
15:21
And do not believe that that isn't coming.
408
906010
1994
15:23
During my research I came across
409
908004
2007
15:25
four different Pentagon projects
410
910011
1985
15:27
on different aspects of that.
411
911996
2012
15:29
And so you have this question:
412
914008
2002
15:31
what does this lead to issues like
413
916010
1993
15:33
war crimes? Robots are emotionless, so
414
918003
1992
15:35
they don't get upset if their buddy is killed.
415
919995
3012
15:38
They don't commit crimes of rage
416
923007
1994
15:40
and revenge.
417
925001
2007
15:42
But robots are emotionless.
418
927008
2997
15:45
They see an 80-year-old grandmother
419
930005
1999
15:47
in a wheelchair the same way they see
420
932004
2000
15:49
a T-80 tank: they're both
421
934004
3002
15:52
just a series of zeroes and ones.
422
937006
2993
15:55
And so we have this question to figure out:
423
939999
3003
15:58
How do we catch up our 20th century
424
943002
2003
16:00
laws of war, that are so old right now
425
945005
1989
16:02
that they could qualify for Medicare,
426
946994
3008
16:05
to these 21st century technologies?
427
950002
3008
16:08
And so, in conclusion, I've talked about
428
953010
2987
16:11
what seems the future of war,
429
955997
3011
16:14
but notice that I've only used
430
959008
1990
16:16
real world examples and you've only seen
431
960998
2012
16:18
real world pictures and videos.
432
963010
2001
16:20
And so this sets a great challenge for
433
965011
2000
16:22
all of us that we have to worry about well
434
967011
1986
16:24
before you have to worry about your
435
968997
2009
16:26
Roomba sucking the life away from you.
436
971006
2001
16:28
Are we going to let the fact that what's
437
973007
1999
16:30
unveiling itself right now in war
438
975006
3000
16:33
sounds like science fiction and therefore
439
978006
2991
16:36
keeps us in denial?
440
980997
2005
16:38
Are we going to face the reality
441
983002
2004
16:40
of 21st century war?
442
985006
1993
16:42
Is our generation going to make the same
443
986999
2001
16:44
mistake that a past generation did
444
989000
2009
16:46
with atomic weaponry, and not deal with
445
991009
1998
16:48
the issues that surround it until
446
993007
1995
16:50
Pandora's box is already opened up?
447
995002
2007
16:52
Now, I could be wrong on this, and
448
997009
1998
16:54
one Pentagon robot scientist told me
449
999007
2004
16:56
that I was. He said, "There's no real
450
1001011
1994
16:58
social, ethical, moral issues when it comes
451
1003005
1995
17:00
to robots.
452
1005000
1998
17:02
That is," he added, "unless the machine
453
1006998
2001
17:04
kills the wrong people repeatedly.
454
1008999
3010
17:07
Then it's just a product recall issue."
455
1012009
2989
17:10
And so the ending point for this is
456
1014998
3011
17:13
that actually, we can turn to Hollywood.
457
1018009
5002
17:18
A few years ago, Hollywood gathered
458
1023011
1996
17:20
all the top characters and created
459
1025007
3006
17:23
a list of the top 100 heroes and
460
1028013
1997
17:25
top 100 villains of all of Hollywood history,
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the characters that represented the best
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and worst of humanity.
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Only one character made it onto both lists:
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The Terminator, a robot killing machine.
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And so that points to the fact that
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our machines can be used
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for both good and evil, but for me
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it points to the fact that there's a duality
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of humans as well.
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This week is a celebration
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of our creativity. Our creativity
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has taken our species to the stars.
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Our creativity has created works of arts
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and literature to express our love.
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And now, we're using our creativity
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in a certain direction, to build fantastic
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machines with incredible capabilities,
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maybe even one day
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an entirely new species.
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But one of the main reasons that we're
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doing that is because of our drive
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to destroy each other, and so the question
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we all should ask:
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is it our machines, or is it us
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that's wired for war?
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Thank you. (Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
P.W. Singer - Military analystIn P.W. Singer's most recent book, "Wired for War," he studies robotic and drone warfighters -- and explores how these new war machines are changing the very nature of human conflict. He has also written on other facets of modern war, including private armies and child soldiers.
Why you should listen
Peter Warren Singer is the director of the 21st Century Defense Initiative at the Brookings Institution -- where his research and analysis offer an eye-opening take on what the 21st century holds for war and foreign policy. His latest book, Wired for War, examines how the US military has been, in the words of a recent US Navy recruiting ad, "working hard to get soldiers off the front lines" and replacing humans with machines for bombing, flying and spying. He asks big questions: What will the rise of war machines mean to traditional notions of the battlefield, like honor? His 2003 book Corporate Warriors was a prescient look at private military forces. It's essential reading for anyone curious about what went on to happen in Iraq involving these quasi-armies.
Singer is a prolific writer and essayist (for Brookings, for newspapers, and for Wired.com's great Threat Level), and is expert at linking popular culture with hard news on what's coming next from the military-industrial complex. Recommended: his recent piece for Brookings called "A Look at the Pentagon's Five-Step Plan for Making Iron Man Real."
P.W. Singer | Speaker | TED.com