TED2009
P.W. Singer: Military robots and the future of war
P.W. Singer 談論軍用機器人以及未來的戰爭型態
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在這個強力的演說中, P.W. Singer 告訴我們在戰爭中廣泛使用機器人這件事正逐漸改變戰爭的本質. 他讓我們看見科幻電影中的一些場景 -- 那似乎已經不再虛幻了。
P.W. Singer - Military analyst
In P.W. Singer's most recent book, "Wired for War," he studies robotic and drone warfighters -- and explores how these new war machines are changing the very nature of human conflict. He has also written on other facets of modern war, including private armies and child soldiers. Full bio
In P.W. Singer's most recent book, "Wired for War," he studies robotic and drone warfighters -- and explores how these new war machines are changing the very nature of human conflict. He has also written on other facets of modern war, including private armies and child soldiers. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I thought I'd begin with a scene of war.
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我想從一個戰爭的場景來開始談。
00:18
There was little to warn of the danger ahead.
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這裡看不出任何徵兆來得知前方隱藏的危險。
00:20
The Iraqi insurgent had placed the IED,
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事實上伊拉克反抗軍已經在路旁
00:22
an Improvised Explosive Device,
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很小心的裝置了 IED，
00:25
along the side of the road with great care.
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那是一種簡易爆炸裝置。
00:27
By 2006, there were more than 2,500
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在 2006 這一年中，
00:31
of these attacks every single month,
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每個月有超過 2500 件這類攻擊事件，
00:34
and they were the leading cause of
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而這些正是造成
00:36
casualties among American soldiers
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美國士兵以及伊拉克居民
00:38
and Iraqi civilians.
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死傷的主要原因。
00:40
The team that was hunting for this IED
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搜尋這種 IED 的小組
00:42
is called an EOD team—
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被稱為 EOD 小組 --
00:44
Explosives Ordinance Disposal—and
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爆破性武器處理( Explosive Ordnance Disposal )
00:46
they're the pointy end of the spear in the
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他們是美軍部隊中
00:48
American effort to suppress these roadside bombs.
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專門對付路旁炸彈的尖兵。
00:51
Each EOD team goes out on about
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每個 EOD 小組每年會進行
00:53
600 of these bomb calls every year,
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大約 600 次這類炸彈任務，
00:55
defusing about two bombs a day.
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每天大概要拆兩個炸彈。
00:58
Perhaps the best sign of how valuable they
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也許對他們來說，
01:00
are to the war effort, is that
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伊拉克反抗軍用5萬美金
01:02
the Iraqi insurgents put a $50,000 bounty
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懸賞一個EOD士兵的人頭這件事，
01:04
on the head of a single EOD soldier.
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可以看出他們有多珍貴。
01:07
Unfortunately, this particular call
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很不幸的，
01:09
would not end well.
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這種特殊任務不一定能安全完成。
01:11
By the time the soldier advanced close
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某次一位資深士兵為了看訊號線
01:13
enough to see the telltale wires
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過度接近一枚炸彈，
01:15
of the bomb, it exploded in a wave of flame.
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結果它炸出了一道火牆。
01:18
Now, depending how close you are
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依據你靠得多近，
01:20
and how much explosive has been packed
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以及炸彈中裝置了多少火藥，
01:22
into that bomb, it can cause death
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它會導致人員死亡或受傷。
01:24
or injury. You have to be as far as
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你必須要保持距離
01:26
50 yards away to escape that.
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在 50 碼以上才能不受波及。
01:28
The blast is so strong it can even break
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沖擊波強大到足以震斷你的四肢，
01:30
your limbs, even if you're not hit.
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即使你沒有被炸彈擊中。
01:32
That soldier had been on top of the bomb.
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這位士兵正身處於炸彈上方。
01:34
And so when the rest of the team advanced
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而這個資深隊伍的其他人員
01:37
they found little left. And that night the unit's
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只在稍微左邊一點的位置。而在當晚，
01:39
commander did a sad duty, and he wrote
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這個隊伍的指揮官做了一件令人難過的任務，
01:41
a condolence letter back to the United
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他寫了一封哀悼的信回美國，
01:43
States, and he talked about how hard the
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他描述關於失去他的隊伍他有多傷心，
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loss had been on his unit, about the fact
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而且事實上，
01:47
that they had lost their bravest soldier,
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他們失去了最勇敢的士兵，
01:49
a soldier who had saved their lives
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一位曾經多次
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many a time.
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拯救他們性命的士兵。
01:53
And he apologized
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並且，他感到抱歉
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for not being able to bring them home.
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因為他無法將這個人帶回家。
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But then he talked up the silver lining
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但是從這個事件中，
01:59
that he took away from the loss.
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他提到了一絲希望。
02:01
"At least," as he wrote, "when a robot dies,
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如他所寫的，
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you don't have to write a letter
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「至少當一個機器人死亡時，
02:05
to its mother."
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你不用寫信給他的母親。」
02:07
That scene sounds like science fiction,
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這聽起來像是科幻電影的場景，
02:09
but is battlefield reality already.
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但這是戰場上真實的事情。
02:11
The soldier in that case
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在這個例子中的士兵，
02:14
was a 42-pound robot called a PackBot.
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是一個重達 42 磅，名為 PackBot 的機器人。
02:17
The chief's letter went, not to some
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這位長官的信，
02:20
farmhouse in Iowa like you see
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不像你在一些老舊戰爭電影所見
02:22
in the old war movies, but went to
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寄給愛荷華州的某個家園，
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the iRobot Company, which is
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而是寄給這家 iRobot 公司，
02:27
named after the Asimov novel
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名字取自 Asimov 小說
02:30
and the not-so-great Will Smith movie,
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以及不怎麼樣的 Will Smith 電影，
02:32
and... um... (Laughter)...
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還有 ... ( 笑聲 ) ...
02:34
if you remember that
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如果你還記得
02:36
in that fictional world, robots started out
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在那個科幻世界中，機器人一開始
02:38
carrying out mundane chores, and then
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只會幫我們做家事，接著，
02:40
they started taking on life-and-death decisions.
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它們可以決定我們的生死。
02:42
That's a reality we face today.
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這就是今日我們面對的真實狀況。
02:44
What we're going to do is actually just
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接下來，我將會用我身後的投影片
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flash a series of photos behind me that
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來播放一些照片給大家看，
02:48
show you the reality of robots used in war
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讓大家看看目前被用於戰場
02:51
right now or already at the prototype stage.
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以及那些已經有原型機(prototype)的機器人。
02:53
It's just to give you a taste.
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這只是稍微做個介紹。
02:56
Another way of putting it is you're not
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另外要提一下，
02:58
going to see anything that's powered
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你們現在看見的這些，
03:00
by Vulcan technology, or teenage
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並不是瓦肯人的外星技術，
03:02
wizard hormones or anything like that.
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或是少年巫師賀爾蒙作祟變出來的東西。
03:04
This is all real. So why don't we
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這一切都是真實的。
03:06
go ahead and start those pictures.
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我們開始看看這些照片吧
03:08
Something big is going on in war today,
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人性在現今的戰爭中
03:10
and maybe even the history of humanity
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出現有史以來的重大改變。
03:12
itself. The U.S. military went into Iraq with
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當初美軍進入伊拉克時，
03:15
a handful of drones in the air.
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只有少數的無人飛機，
03:17
We now have 5,300.
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現在已經增加到 5300 架。
03:20
We went in with zero unmanned ground
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當時我們沒有無人的地面系統，
03:22
systems. We now have 12,000.
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現在已經有 12000 架了。
03:26
And the tech term "killer application"
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而 "殺手級應用" 這個技術名詞
03:28
takes on new meaning in this space.
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在這兒將會有新的定義。
03:31
And we need to remember that we're
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請記住我們現在所談的是
03:33
talking about the Model T Fords,
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拿福特的Model T4 車,
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the Wright Flyers, compared
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與萊特兄弟的飛機
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to what's coming soon.
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和即將推出的最新款比較的那種巨大差異。
03:39
That's where we're at right now.
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這就是我們現在即將看見的。
03:41
One of the people that I recently met with
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我最近遇到一位
03:43
was an Air Force three-star general, and he
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空軍三星上將，他說，
03:45
said basically, where we're headed very
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基本上我們即將面對的是，
03:47
soon is tens of thousands of robots
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將會有成千上萬的機器人
03:49
operating in our conflicts, and these
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在戰場上作戰，
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numbers matter, because we're not just
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而這個數字之所以重要，是因為我們不是談論
03:53
talking about tens of thousands of today's
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成千上萬的現有機器人，
03:55
robots, but tens of thousands of these
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而是成千上萬的原型機，
03:57
prototypes and tomorrow's robots, because
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以及未來機器人，因為，
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of course, one of the things that's operating
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在現今科技裡面
04:02
in technology is Moore's Law,
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有個叫做摩爾定律的東西，
04:04
that you can pack in more and more
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就是說你將可以替機器人
04:06
computing power into those robots, and so
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裝入更多強力的運算能力，
04:08
flash forward around 25 years,
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所以往後推算 25 年的話，
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if Moore's Law holds true,
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如果摩爾定律依然正確的話，
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those robots will be close to a billion times
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這些機器人在運算能力上
04:15
more powerful in their computing than today.
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將會比今日強上十幾億倍。
04:18
And so what that means is the kind of
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這樣的話，
04:20
things that we used to only talk about at
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我們本來在一些漫畫同人展中
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science fiction conventions like Comic-Con
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討論的一些科幻小說內容，
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have to be talked about in the halls
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將會改在掌權者的會議室中談論，
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of power and places like the Pentagon.
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像是五角大廈這種地方。
04:28
A robots revolution is upon us.
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機器人的巨大轉變正在發生。
04:31
Now, I need to be clear here.
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在這兒我必須先說清楚。
04:33
I'm not talking about a revolution where you
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我並不是在說
04:35
have to worry about the Governor of
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某天加州州長會以魔鬼終結者型態
04:37
California showing up at your door,
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出現在你家門前
04:39
a la the Terminator. (Laughter)
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那種令你擔心的事。(笑聲)
04:41
When historians look at this period, they're
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以後的歷史學家看我們這段時期時，
04:43
going to conclude that we're in a different
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他們會寫說我們正處於一種不同的轉變期，
04:45
type of revolution: a revolution in war,
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一種戰爭型態的轉變，
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like the invention of the atomic bomb.
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就像是原子彈的發明一般。
04:49
But it may be even bigger than that,
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但可能還會更加重大，
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because our unmanned systems don't just
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因為我們擁有的無人系統
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affect the "how" of war-fighting,
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並不只是影響"如何"去作戰，
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they affect the "who" of fighting
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它們將影響在機器人最重要的原則，
04:57
at its most fundamental level.
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它是"和誰"在作戰。
04:59
That is, every previous revolution in war, be
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就是說，在以往的戰爭型態改變中，
05:01
it the machine gun, be it the atomic bomb,
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不論是機關槍，或是原子彈，
05:03
was about a system that either shot faster,
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都只是關於如何作到射得更快，
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went further, had a bigger boom.
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前進得更遠，或是爆炸威力更大。
05:09
That's certainly the case with robotics, but
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這些當然也和機器人有關係，
05:12
they also change the experience of the warrior
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但這將會改變士兵們的經歷，
05:15
and even the very identity of the warrior.
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甚至是士兵們的身份。
05:18
Another way of putting this is that
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另外一部分就是，
05:21
mankind's 5,000-year-old monopoly
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人類在近5000年來
05:23
on the fighting of war is breaking down
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在戰場上作戰的專利
05:26
in our very lifetime. I've spent
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將會在我們這個世代中結束。
05:28
the last several years going around
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過去幾年來，
05:30
meeting with all the players in this field,
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我到各地去拜訪這個領域的人們，
05:32
from the robot scientists to the science
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包括了製作機器人的科學家，
05:34
fiction authors who inspired them to the
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提供靈感的那些科幻小說作者，
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19-year-old drone pilots who are fighting
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那些身在內華達州
05:38
from Nevada, to the four-star generals
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負責操縱無人飛機的19歲駕駛們，
05:40
who command them, to even the Iraqi
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負責指揮這些人的四星上將，
05:42
insurgents who they are targeting and what
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甚至是被攻擊的伊拉克反抗軍，
05:44
they think about our systems, and
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詢問他們對這套系統的看法，
05:46
what I found interesting is not just
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令我感興趣的並不只是
05:48
their stories, but how their experiences
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他們自身的故事，
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point to these ripple effects that are going
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而是他們所經歷的這些
05:52
outwards in our society, in our law
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將如何影響我們的社會，我們的法律
05:54
and our ethics, etc. And so what I'd like
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以及道德觀之類的。
05:56
to do with my remaining time is basically
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我會利用剩餘的時間，
05:58
flesh out a couple of these.
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將這些作一個簡單的說明。
06:00
So the first is that the future of war,
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首先，戰爭的未來型態，
06:02
even a robotics one, is not going to be
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甚至是利用機器人的戰爭，
06:04
purely an American one.
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將不再只是美國的問題。
06:06
The U.S. is currently ahead in military
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確實現在美國在軍事機器人方面
06:08
robotics right now, but we know that in
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佔有領先的地位，但是我們知道
06:10
technology there's no such thing as
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科技這種東西不會有
06:12
a permanent first move or advantage.
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永遠保持領先這種事。
06:15
In a quick show of hands, how many
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這樣說吧，請問
06:17
people in this room still use
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這裡有多少人還在使用
06:19
Wang Computers? (Laughter)
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王安電腦? (笑聲)
06:21
It's the same thing in war. The British and
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戰爭也是一樣。英國以及
06:23
the French invented the tank.
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法國發明了坦克。
06:26
The Germans figured out how
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而德國人發現該如何
06:28
to use it right, and so what we have to
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正確的使用它，所以
06:30
think about for the U.S. is that we are
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我們現在要思考的是，
06:32
ahead right now, but you have
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雖然美國現在領先，
06:34
43 other countries out there
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但世界上還有其他43個國家
06:36
working on military robotics, and they
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正在努力開發軍事機器人，
06:38
include all the interesting countries like
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包括了那些值得注意的國家
06:40
Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran.
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例如俄羅斯、中國、巴基斯坦和伊朗。
06:43
And this raises a bigger worry for me.
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這讓我更加擔憂。
06:46
How do we move forward in this revolution
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我們該如何利用
06:48
given the state of our manufacturing
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現有的製造技術、現有的學校科學
06:50
and the state of our science and
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與數學教育，
06:52
mathematics training in our schools?
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在這個戰爭型態轉變中繼續向前?
06:54
Or another way of thinking about this is,
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換個想法的話就是，
06:56
what does it mean to go to war increasingly
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越來越多士兵在戰場上使用中國製的硬體設備，
06:58
with soldiers whose hardware is made
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以及印度所寫的電腦軟體，
07:01
in China and software is written in India?
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這將會是什麼情況呢？
07:06
But just as software has gone open-source,
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但正如同軟體逐漸趨向開放式原始碼(open source)，
07:09
so has warfare.
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戰爭也是如此。
07:11
Unlike an aircraft carrier or an atomic bomb,
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不同於飛機或是原子彈，
07:14
you don't need a massive manufacturing
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你不需要有大型生產系統來製造機器人。
07:16
system to build robotics. A lot of it is
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大部分都有現成品，
07:18
off the shelf. A lot of it's even do-it-yourself.
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有些甚至可以讓你DIY的。
07:20
One of those things you just saw flashed
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像是各位在剛才的影片中
07:22
before you was a raven drone, the handheld
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看見的烏鴉號無人飛機，
07:24
tossed one. For about a thousand dollars,
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手持拋擲的那台，只要大約1千美金，
07:26
you can build one yourself, equivalent to
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你就可以自己做一台，
07:28
what the soldiers use in Iraq.
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和那些在伊拉克的士兵們所用的完全一樣。
07:30
That raises another wrinkle when it comes
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當關係到戰爭和衝突時，
07:32
to war and conflict. Good guys might play
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這東西就會有不同的用法，
07:34
around and work on these as hobby kits,
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好人可能只是拿來玩玩，把這些當作興趣而已，
07:36
but so might bad guys.
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但壞人也會拿來玩。
07:38
This cross between robotics and things like
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這個介於機器人技術與恐怖主義行為的東西，
07:40
terrorism is going to be fascinating
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將會變得相當迷人，
07:42
and even disturbing,
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但又相當令人困擾，
07:44
and we've already seen it start.
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我們已經看見它發生了。
07:46
During the war between Israel, a state,
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在以色列這個國家，
07:48
and Hezbollah, a non-state actor,
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與真主黨這個非國家組織的戰爭中，
07:51
the non-state actor flew
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真主黨操縱了
07:53
four different drones against Israel.
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四架無人飛機來對抗以色列。
07:55
There's already a jihadi website
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你甚至可以坐在家裡，
07:57
that you can go on and remotely
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使用電腦連到一個Jehadi網站，
07:59
detonate an IED in Iraq while sitting
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遙控引爆在伊拉克的
08:01
at your home computer.
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簡易爆炸裝置。
08:03
And so I think what we're going to see is
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因此，我想這個將會導致
08:05
two trends take place with this.
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兩種趨勢的發生。
08:07
First is, you're going to reinforce the power
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第一個是，個人對抗政府的力量
08:09
of individuals against governments,
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將會變得更加強大，
08:13
but then the second is that
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但第二個則是，
08:15
we are going to see an expansion
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我們將會看見
08:17
in the realm of terrorism.
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恐怖份子的勢力範圍逐漸擴大。
08:19
The future of it may be a cross between
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未來可能將是
08:21
al Qaeda 2.0 and the
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蓋達組織2.0與
08:23
next generation of the Unabomber.
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次世代郵包炸彈客聯手的情況。
08:25
And another way of thinking about this
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另外一方面的問題是，
08:27
is the fact that, remember, you don't have
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請記住，你並不需要
08:29
to convince a robot that they're gonna
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去說服機器人相信
08:31
receive 72 virgins after they die
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在犧牲後會獲得72個處女，
08:34
to convince them to blow themselves up.
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以說服它們執行自殺炸彈任務。
08:37
But the ripple effects of this are going to go
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但這件事將會在政治上
08:39
out into our politics. One of the people that
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產生一些影響。我曾經遇到
08:41
I met with was a former Assistant Secretary of
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雷根時代的前國防部助理秘書長。
08:43
Defense for Ronald Reagan, and he put it
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他曾經這樣說過，
08:45
this way: "I like these systems because
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"我喜歡這些系統，
08:47
they save American lives, but I worry about
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因為它可以拯救許多美國人的性命，
08:49
more marketization of wars,
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但是我擔心
08:51
more shock-and-awe talk,
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這將會使得戰爭變得更加自由市場化，
08:54
to defray discussion of the costs.
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會出現更多談論代價的驚人言論。
08:56
People are more likely to support the use
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當人們認為某種方式是幾乎不需付出代價時，
08:58
of force if they view it as costless."
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人們會比較傾向去使用它。"
09:01
Robots for me take certain trends
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對我來說，機器人化是必然的趨勢，
09:03
that are already in play in our body politic,
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甚至已經在政治體系中出現，
09:06
and maybe take them to
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也許已經讓它們
09:08
their logical ending point.
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變得相當合理化。
09:10
We don't have a draft. We don't
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對於這個我們並沒有任何草案。
09:12
have declarations of war anymore.
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我們不再有任何戰爭宣言。
09:15
We don't buy war bonds anymore.
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我們不再買任何戰爭公債。
09:17
And now we have the fact that we're
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但事實上，
09:19
converting more and more of our American
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我們正在持續將那些
09:21
soldiers that we would send into harm's
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原本要送往危險區域的美國士兵們
09:23
way into machines, and so we may take
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盡量以機器人替代，這樣我們就可以
09:26
those already lowering bars to war
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讓那些反對戰爭的民調數字
09:29
and drop them to the ground.
250
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降至最低。
09:32
But the future of war is also going to be
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但是未來的戰爭，
09:34
a YouTube war.
252
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2000
也將會變成YouTube型態的戰爭。
09:36
That is, our new technologies don't merely
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就是說，我們的機器人
09:38
remove humans from risk.
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不只可以讓人們遠離危險。
09:40
They also record everything that they see.
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同時也會紀錄下它們所看見的一切。
09:43
So they don't just delink the public:
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所以它們不只是讓人群遠離戰爭，
09:46
they reshape its relationship with war.
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它們也重新塑造它與戰爭的關係。
09:49
There's already several thousand
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現在YouTube上
09:51
video clips of combat footage from Iraq
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已經有數以千計的短片
09:53
on YouTube right now,
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紀錄著伊拉克戰爭的狀況，
09:55
most of it gathered by drones.
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大部分都是由機器人所拍攝。
09:57
Now, this could be a good thing.
262
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這也許是一件好事，
09:59
It could be building connections between
263
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它可以讓一般家庭
10:01
the home front and the war front
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與戰場之間
10:03
as never before.
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形成一種前所未有的連結。
10:05
But remember, this is taking place
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但是，請記住，這正發生在
10:07
in our strange, weird world, and so
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我們所存在的詭異世界，
10:10
inevitably the ability to download these
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因此，它們勢必會被人們
10:12
video clips to, you know, your iPod
269
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下載到他們的iPod
10:14
or your Zune gives you
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或Zune裡面，
10:17
the ability to turn it into entertainment.
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甚至會變成一種娛樂。
10:21
Soldiers have a name for these clips.
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士兵們給了這種短片一個名字。
10:23
They call it war porn.
273
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他們稱呼它為戰爭色情片。
10:25
The typical one that I was sent was
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我曾經收到一則經典的影片，
10:27
an email that had an attachment of
275
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2000
是封e-mail，夾帶了一段掠奪者攻擊的影片，
10:29
video of a Predator strike taking out
276
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2000
紀錄著攻擊敵人的陣地，
10:31
an enemy site. Missile hits,
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2000
飛彈擊中目標時，
10:33
bodies burst into the air with the explosion.
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3000
敵軍的身體因為爆破而飛上空中。
10:36
It was set to music.
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2000
它被配上了音樂。
10:38
It was set to the pop song
280
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2000
它被配上了一段流行音樂
10:40
"I Just Want To Fly" by Sugar Ray.
281
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3000
Sugar Ray的"我只想飛"。
10:43
This ability to watch more
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3000
這種看得更多、
10:46
but experience less creates a wrinkle
283
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3000
但親身經歷更少的情況，
10:49
in the public's relationship with war.
284
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導致大眾與戰爭產生一種奇怪的關係。
10:51
I think about this with a sports parallel.
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2000
我想這就像是觀看運動比賽一樣。
10:53
It's like the difference between
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3000
這就像是在看一場
10:56
watching an NBA game, a professional
287
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3000
NBA比賽一樣，在電視上
10:59
basketball game on TV, where the athletes
288
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3000
看職業籃球賽時，畫面上的運動員
11:02
are tiny figures on the screen, and
289
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2000
看起來都小小的，
11:04
being at that basketball game in person
290
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3000
但是親自在籃球比賽現場時，
11:07
and realizing what someone seven feet
291
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2000
你才知道那些身高超過200公分的人
11:09
really does look like.
292
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2000
真正是什麼樣子。
11:11
But we have to remember,
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但是我們必須記住，
11:13
these are just the clips.
294
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2000
這些只是短片。
11:15
These are just the ESPN SportsCenter
295
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2000
這些是ESPN運動中心版本的比賽。
11:17
version of the game. They lose the context.
296
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它沒有故事背景，
11:19
They lose the strategy.
297
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2000
它沒有戰略，
11:21
They lose the humanity. War just
298
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2000
它沒有人性，
11:23
becomes slam dunks and smart bombs.
299
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3000
戰爭變成了像灌籃或是發射飛彈那麼簡單。
11:26
Now the irony of all this is that
300
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3000
諷刺的是，
11:29
while the future of war may involve
301
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2000
當未來戰爭
11:31
more and more machines,
302
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2000
有更多機器人加入時，
11:33
it's our human psychology that's driving
303
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2000
那是被人們的心理因素所驅使，
11:35
all of this, it's our human failings
304
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2000
那是因為人們的缺陷
11:37
that are leading to these wars.
305
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2000
導致這些戰爭發生。
11:39
So one example of this that has
306
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2000
有一個激起了政治上
11:41
big resonance in the policy realm is
307
686000
2000
很大迴響的案例，
11:43
how this plays out on our very real
308
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2000
就是當我們對抗激進份子時，
11:45
war of ideas that we're fighting
309
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2000
我們對於真實戰爭的想法
11:47
against radical groups.
310
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2000
會有什麼改變。
11:49
What is the message that we think we are
311
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2000
在什麼情況下，我們會決定
11:51
sending with these machines versus what
312
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2000
要派出這些機器人，以及
11:53
is being received in terms of the message.
313
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3000
派出這些機器人之後會有什麼結果。
11:56
So one of the people that I met was
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2000
我曾經遇到一位
11:58
a senior Bush Administration official,
315
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2000
布希內閣的高級官員，
12:00
who had this to say about
316
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2000
他曾經對於這種
12:02
our unmanning of war:
317
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2000
無人的戰爭方式這麼說：
12:04
"It plays to our strength. The thing that
318
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2000
"它讓我們的力量變大，
12:06
scares people is our technology."
319
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2000
令敵人害怕的是我們的科技"
12:08
But when you go out and meet with people,
320
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2000
但是當你走出去，遇到其他人，
12:10
for example in Lebanon, it's a very
321
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2000
例如在黎巴嫩，
12:12
different story. One of the people
322
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2000
這就變成另外一件事。
12:14
I met with there was a news editor, and
323
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2000
在那裡我遇到一個新聞記者，
12:16
we're talking as a drone is flying above him,
324
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2000
當我們在談話時，有一架無人飛機正在空中飛行著。
12:18
and this is what he had to say.
325
723000
2002
他這麼說：
"這是只是冷酷無情的另一種象徵，
12:20
"This is just another sign of the coldhearted
326
725002
1998
12:22
cruel Israelis and Americans,
327
727000
3006
殘忍的以色列和美國人們，
他們很膽小，
12:25
who are cowards because
328
730006
1992
12:27
they send out machines to fight us.
329
731998
2006
因為他們只敢派機器人來攻擊我們。
他們不願意像個男人一樣作戰，
12:29
They don't want to fight us like real men,
330
734004
1992
12:31
but they're afraid to fight,
331
735996
2007
因為他們害怕戰鬥。
所以我們必須要殺掉一些他們的士兵
12:33
so we just have to kill a few of their soldiers
332
738003
1991
12:35
to defeat them."
333
739994
3005
來打敗他們。"
12:38
The future of war also is featuring
334
742999
2007
未來的戰爭也造就了
不同型態的戰士，
12:40
a new type of warrior,
335
745006
1977
12:42
and it's actually redefining the experience
336
746999
3006
這確實重新定義了
上戰場的經歷，
12:45
of going to war.
337
750005
1998
你可以稱之為臥房戰士。
12:47
You can call this a cubicle warrior.
338
752003
1976
12:49
This is what one Predator drone pilot
339
753994
2007
以下是一位掠奪者無人飛機的駕駛
描述關於他在伊拉克戰爭中的經歷，
12:51
described of his experience fighting
340
756001
2007
而期間他從未離開過內華達州。
12:53
in the Iraq War while never leaving Nevada.
341
758008
2989
12:56
"You're going to war for 12 hours,
342
760997
2005
"你將會前進至戰場上12小時，
對著目標物射擊，
12:58
shooting weapons at targets,
343
763002
1991
直接殺掉敵人的戰鬥員，
13:00
directing kills on enemy combatants,
344
765008
2991
13:03
and then you get in the car
345
767999
2006
之後你開著車回到家，
在20分鐘之內
13:05
and you drive home and within 20 minutes,
346
770005
1982
你就可以坐在餐桌上，
13:07
you're sitting at the dinner table
347
772003
1991
和你的孩子們談論他們的回家作業。"
13:09
talking to your kids about their homework."
348
774009
1993
對於這些經歷，
13:11
Now, the psychological balancing
349
776002
1991
在心理上要達到平衡是極為困難的。
13:13
of those experiences is incredibly tough,
350
778008
1993
事實上這些無人飛機的駕駛員
13:15
and in fact those drone pilots have
351
780001
2992
13:18
higher rates of PTSD than many
352
782993
2008
比起那些在伊拉克作戰的人們
更容易得到創傷後壓力症候群。
13:20
of the units physically in Iraq.
353
785001
3005
但是有些人會擔心這種遠距作戰
13:23
But some have worries that this
354
788006
1992
13:25
disconnection will lead to something else,
355
789998
1994
會導致一些其它問題，
這將會讓企圖進行戰爭犯罪
13:27
that it might make the contemplation of war
356
792007
1998
當你有這種遠距能力時會更加容易。
13:29
crimes a lot easier when you have
357
794005
2005
一個年輕的無人飛機駕駛告訴我，
13:31
this distance. "It's like a video game,"
358
796010
1999
在遠距射殺敵人的部隊
13:33
is what one young pilot described to me
359
798009
1999
"感覺就像是電動玩具一樣"。
13:35
of taking out enemy troops from afar.
360
800008
1960
13:37
As anyone who's played Grand Theft Auto
361
801998
2995
玩過"俠盜獵車手"的人應該會知道，
任何我們在真實世界不會做的事
13:40
knows, we do things in the video world
362
805008
3000
在電玩世界裡我們可以任意進行。
13:43
that we wouldn't do face to face.
363
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2996
所以，你剛聽到我所說的
13:46
So much of what you're hearing from me
364
811004
1998
這些內容，都是科技革命
13:48
is that there's another side
365
813002
1993
13:50
to technologic revolutions,
366
814995
2008
的另外一面，
它正改變現在的我們，
13:52
and that it's shaping our present
367
817003
1994
13:54
and maybe will shape our future of war.
368
818997
3001
也許將會改變我們未來的戰爭型態。
13:57
Moore's Law is operative,
369
821998
2001
摩爾定律在這裡是可行的，
13:59
but so's Murphy's Law.
370
823999
1998
同樣的，墨菲定律也是如此。
14:01
The fog of war isn't being lifted.
371
825997
2005
戰爭的硝煙還未散去，
敵人進行了投票，
14:03
The enemy has a vote.
372
828002
2010
我們將會得到驚人的新能力，
14:05
We're gaining incredible new capabilities,
373
830012
1989
但是我們同時也在經歷
14:07
but we're also seeing and experiencing
374
832001
2006
人類新的困境。
14:09
new human dilemmas. Now,
375
834007
2000
有的時候，這些只是一種"令人驚訝"的時刻，
14:11
sometimes these are just "oops" moments,
376
836007
1999
這是製造機器人的公司所描述的
14:13
which is what the head of a robotics
377
838006
1992
14:15
company described it, you just have
378
839998
2011
"你將會有一些令人驚訝的時刻。"
那麼，對於機器人和戰爭而言，
14:17
"oops" moments. Well, what are
379
842009
2000
什麼是令人驚訝的時刻呢?
14:19
"oops" moments with robots in war?
380
844009
1996
有的時候它們會很好笑。
14:21
Well, sometimes they're funny. Sometimes,
381
846005
2001
有時候，它們就像是
14:23
they're like that scene from the
382
848006
2002
艾迪‧墨菲的電影 "兵來將擋"
14:25
Eddie Murphy movie "Best Defense,"
383
850008
2001
裡面所演的那樣，當他們測試
14:27
playing out in reality, where they tested out
384
852009
2001
武裝機器人的機關槍時，
14:29
a machine gun-armed robot, and during
385
854010
1988
14:31
the demonstration it started spinning
386
855998
2001
在展示的期間，
14:33
in a circle and pointed its machine gun
387
857999
3009
它開始轉圈圈，然後將它的機關槍
瞄準觀眾席上的貴賓們。
14:36
at the reviewing stand of VIPs.
388
861008
2995
所幸這些武器並沒有子彈，
14:39
Fortunately the weapon wasn't loaded
389
864003
1993
14:41
and no one was hurt, but other times
390
865996
2010
所以沒有人受傷。但是其他令人驚訝的時刻
則會變成悲劇，
14:43
"oops" moments are tragic,
391
868006
1992
14:45
such as last year in South Africa, where
392
869998
2002
例如去年在南非，
14:47
an anti-aircraft cannon had a
393
872000
2999
一架防空加農砲出現了官方宣稱的
14:50
"software glitch," and actually did turn on
394
874999
2999
"軟體故障"，結果它啟動了，
14:53
and fired, and nine soldiers were killed.
395
877998
3004
並且開火，結果殺死了九個士兵。
我們在戰爭規則和責任上
14:56
We have new wrinkles in the laws of war
396
881002
2997
14:59
and accountability. What do we do
397
883999
1997
出現了新的問題。我們要怎麼處理
15:01
with things like unmanned slaughter?
398
885996
2010
這些無人的屠殺工具呢?
什麼是無人的屠殺工具呢?
15:03
What is unmanned slaughter?
399
888006
1998
我們已經有三次的例子，
15:05
We've already had three instances of
400
890004
2000
當掠奪者攻擊時，
15:07
Predator drone strikes where we thought
401
892004
2000
我們以為已經殺了賓拉登，
15:09
we got bin Laden, and it turned out
402
894004
1994
15:11
not to be the case.
403
895998
2002
但結果並不是如此。
15:13
And this is where we're at right now.
404
898000
2008
這就是我們所面臨的問題。
這並不只是在說，
15:15
This is not even talking about armed,
405
900008
2000
武裝的自動化系統
15:17
autonomous systems
406
902008
1989
15:19
with full authority to use force.
407
903997
2013
擁有完整的權利去使用武器，
還有，不要以為這不會發生。
15:21
And do not believe that that isn't coming.
408
906010
1994
在我的研究中，
15:23
During my research I came across
409
908004
2007
我接觸了五角大廈針對不同領域
15:25
four different Pentagon projects
410
910011
1985
15:27
on different aspects of that.
411
911996
2012
進行的四個專案。
那麼你會有這個疑問。
15:29
And so you have this question:
412
914008
2002
是什麼導致這些變得像是戰爭犯罪?
15:31
what does this lead to issues like
413
916010
1993
機器人是沒有感情的，
15:33
war crimes? Robots are emotionless, so
414
918003
1992
15:35
they don't get upset if their buddy is killed.
415
919995
3012
所以它們不會因為同伴被殺而打亂思緒。
它們不會因為憤怒而犯罪
15:38
They don't commit crimes of rage
416
923007
1994
或進行報復。
15:40
and revenge.
417
925001
2007
但正因為機器人是沒有感情的，
15:42
But robots are emotionless.
418
927008
2997
對它們來說，
15:45
They see an 80-year-old grandmother
419
930005
1999
坐在輪椅上的80歲老婆婆，
15:47
in a wheelchair the same way they see
420
932004
2000
和T80坦克是沒有兩樣的。
15:49
a T-80 tank: they're both
421
934004
3002
他們都只是一連串 0 和 1 的訊號。
15:52
just a series of zeroes and ones.
422
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2993
15:55
And so we have this question to figure out:
423
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3003
因此我們必須想辦法解決這個問題，
我們該怎麼讓20世紀的戰爭規則
15:58
How do we catch up our 20th century
424
943002
2003
跟上時代，
16:00
laws of war, that are so old right now
425
945005
1989
16:02
that they could qualify for Medicare,
426
946994
3008
對於21世紀的科技而言，
只剩下醫療保險還能延用而已。
16:05
to these 21st century technologies?
427
950002
3008
總結而言，
16:08
And so, in conclusion, I've talked about
428
953010
2987
16:11
what seems the future of war,
429
955997
3011
我已經談論了未來戰爭的樣子，
但是請注意，
16:14
but notice that I've only used
430
959008
1990
16:16
real world examples and you've only seen
431
960998
2012
我舉的都是真實世界的例子，
你看見的都是真實世界的照片和影片。
16:18
real world pictures and videos.
432
963010
2001
對我們來說
16:20
And so this sets a great challenge for
433
965011
2000
這將是一大挑戰，
16:22
all of us that we have to worry about well
434
967011
1986
16:24
before you have to worry about your
435
968997
2009
在你開始擔心
你的自動吸塵器殺掉你之前，
16:26
Roomba sucking the life away from you.
436
971006
2001
我們必須趕快想好對策。
16:28
Are we going to let the fact that what's
437
973007
1999
難道我們要讓戰爭中的事實真相，
16:30
unveiling itself right now in war
438
975006
3000
繼續被當成是科幻電影一般，
16:33
sounds like science fiction and therefore
439
978006
2991
16:36
keeps us in denial?
440
980997
2005
而不願意去面對嗎?
我們是否要面對21世紀
16:38
Are we going to face the reality
441
983002
2004
戰爭的真相呢?
16:40
of 21st century war?
442
985006
1993
16:42
Is our generation going to make the same
443
986999
2001
我們這一代是否要像上一代一樣，
16:44
mistake that a past generation did
444
989000
2009
繼續犯下那種
使用原子彈的錯誤呢?
16:46
with atomic weaponry, and not deal with
445
991009
1998
然後一直不願意去面對這些問題，
16:48
the issues that surround it until
446
993007
1995
直到潘朵拉的盒子被打開為止嗎?
16:50
Pandora's box is already opened up?
447
995002
2007
也許我的觀點是錯的，
16:52
Now, I could be wrong on this, and
448
997009
1998
一位五角大廈的機器人科學家說我錯了，
16:54
one Pentagon robot scientist told me
449
999007
2004
他說，"對於機器人來說
16:56
that I was. He said, "There's no real
450
1001011
1994
沒有真假，社會意識，
16:58
social, ethical, moral issues when it comes
451
1003005
1995
17:00
to robots.
452
1005000
1998
倫理道德等問題。
17:02
That is," he added, "unless the machine
453
1006998
2001
唯一的問題是，
17:04
kills the wrong people repeatedly.
454
1008999
3010
除非這台機器連續殺錯了人，
這樣的話，那就是要回廠維修的問題。"
17:07
Then it's just a product recall issue."
455
1012009
2989
17:10
And so the ending point for this is
456
1014998
3011
所以，談論到最後，
我們來說說好萊塢。
17:13
that actually, we can turn to Hollywood.
457
1018009
5002
幾年前好萊塢聚集了
17:18
A few years ago, Hollywood gathered
458
1023011
1996
許多頂尖的演員，
17:20
all the top characters and created
459
1025007
3006
並且列出了好萊塢歷史上前100名英雄人物，
17:23
a list of the top 100 heroes and
460
1028013
1997
還有前100名壞蛋角色，
17:25
top 100 villains of all of Hollywood history,
461
1030010
2990
17:28
the characters that represented the best
462
1033000
2006
這些角色代表著人性中最好
和最壞的特質，
17:30
and worst of humanity.
463
1035006
1992
17:32
Only one character made it onto both lists:
464
1036998
4015
其中只有一個角色同時存在於名單之中，
就是魔鬼終結者，一個機器人型態的殺人機器。
17:36
The Terminator, a robot killing machine.
465
1041013
2996
這就點出了我們的機器
17:39
And so that points to the fact that
466
1044009
1988
17:41
our machines can be used
467
1045997
2013
可以同時被用於好事和邪惡的事，
但是對我來說，
17:43
for both good and evil, but for me
468
1048010
1999
事實上它也點出了
17:45
it points to the fact that there's a duality
469
1050009
1996
人類同時具有善和惡的雙重特性。
17:47
of humans as well.
470
1052005
3000
本週我們有個創造力的慶祝會。
17:50
This week is a celebration
471
1055005
1998
我們的創造力
17:52
of our creativity. Our creativity
472
1057003
1999
已經讓人類登上別的星球。
17:54
has taken our species to the stars.
473
1059002
1998
17:56
Our creativity has created works of arts
474
1061000
2007
我們的創造力製造出藝術品，
以及文學作品來表現我們的愛，
17:58
and literature to express our love.
475
1063007
2996
而現在我們正在使用我們的創造力，
18:01
And now, we're using our creativity
476
1066003
1998
去製造出奇妙的機器，
18:03
in a certain direction, to build fantastic
477
1068001
1993
讓它們具有不可思議的能力，
18:05
machines with incredible capabilities,
478
1070009
2987
18:08
maybe even one day
479
1072996
2009
也許有一天，
會出現一種全新的物種。
18:10
an entirely new species.
480
1075005
2997
但是，令我們這麼做的
18:13
But one of the main reasons that we're
481
1078002
2005
其中一個主要因素，
18:15
doing that is because of our drive
482
1080007
1998
就是因為我們想要毀掉彼此。
18:17
to destroy each other, and so the question
483
1082005
3000
所以，我們必須要問的是，
18:20
we all should ask:
484
1085005
1994
18:22
is it our machines, or is it us
485
1086999
2000
操縱戰爭的是我們的機器，
18:24
that's wired for war?
486
1088999
2007
還是我們自己？
謝謝大家。(掌聲)
18:26
Thank you. (Applause)
487
1091006
2098
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
P.W. Singer - Military analystIn P.W. Singer's most recent book, "Wired for War," he studies robotic and drone warfighters -- and explores how these new war machines are changing the very nature of human conflict. He has also written on other facets of modern war, including private armies and child soldiers.
Why you should listen
Peter Warren Singer is the director of the 21st Century Defense Initiative at the Brookings Institution -- where his research and analysis offer an eye-opening take on what the 21st century holds for war and foreign policy. His latest book, Wired for War, examines how the US military has been, in the words of a recent US Navy recruiting ad, "working hard to get soldiers off the front lines" and replacing humans with machines for bombing, flying and spying. He asks big questions: What will the rise of war machines mean to traditional notions of the battlefield, like honor? His 2003 book Corporate Warriors was a prescient look at private military forces. It's essential reading for anyone curious about what went on to happen in Iraq involving these quasi-armies.
Singer is a prolific writer and essayist (for Brookings, for newspapers, and for Wired.com's great Threat Level), and is expert at linking popular culture with hard news on what's coming next from the military-industrial complex. Recommended: his recent piece for Brookings called "A Look at the Pentagon's Five-Step Plan for Making Iron Man Real."
P.W. Singer | Speaker | TED.com