TEDGlobal 2011
Alex Steffen: The shareable future of cities
Aleks Stefen (Alex Steffen): Deljiva budućnost gradova
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Kako gradovi mogu pomoći u spašavanju budućnosti? Alex Steffen prikazuje neke zanimljive zelene projekte u četvrtima, koji proširuju naš pristup ka stvarima koje želimo i trebamo -- istovremeno smanjujući vreme provedeno u automobilima.
Alex Steffen - Planetary futurist
Alex Steffen explores our planet's future, telling powerful, inspiring stories about the hard choices facing humanity ... and our opportunity to create a much better tomorrow. Full bio
Alex Steffen explores our planet's future, telling powerful, inspiring stories about the hard choices facing humanity ... and our opportunity to create a much better tomorrow. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Climate change is already a heavy topic,
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Klimatske promene već predstavljaju značajnu temu
00:17
and it's getting heavier
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koja postaje sve ozbiljnija
00:19
because we're understanding
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zato što počinjemo da shvatamo
00:21
that we need to do more than we are.
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da moramo činiti više nego što sada radimo.
00:23
We're understanding, in fact,
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Mi shvatamo, zapravo,
00:25
that those of us who live in the developed world
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da bi oni među nama, koji žive u razvijenom svetu
00:27
need to be really pushing towards eliminating our emissions.
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trebali nastojati da eliminišu naše emisije štetnih gasova.
00:30
That's, to put it mildly, not what's on the table now.
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O tome se, blago rečeno, trenutno ne raspravlja.
00:33
And it tends to feel a little overwhelming
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I pomalo deluje zaprepašćujuće
00:35
when we look at what is there in reality today
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kada pogledamo današnju realnost
00:38
and the magnitude of the problem that we face.
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i veličinu problema sa kojim se susrećemo.
00:41
And when we have overwhelming problems in front of us,
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I kada imamo zaprepašćujuće probleme pred nama,
00:44
we tend to seek simple answers.
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obično tragamo za jednostavnim odgovorima.
00:47
And I think this is what we've done with climate change.
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Mislim da smo to uradili i sa klimatskim promenama.
00:50
We look at where the emissions are coming from --
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Tražimo odakle dolaze emisije gasova --
00:52
they're coming out of our tailpipes and smokestacks and so forth,
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a oni potiču iz naših izduvnih cevi, dimnjaka i tako dalje,
00:55
and we say, okay, well the problem is
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tada mi kažemo, u redu, problem je
00:57
that they're coming out of fossil fuels that we're burning,
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što emisije dolaze iz fosilnih goriva koja sagorevamo,
00:59
so therefore, the answer must be
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stoga, odgovor mora biti
01:02
to replace those fossil fuels with clean sources of energy.
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u zameni tih fosilnih goriva čistim izvorima energije.
01:05
And while, of course, we do need clean energy,
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I dok mi, naravno, imamo potrebu za čistom energijom,
01:08
I would put to you that it's possible
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naglasio bih da je moguće
01:10
that by looking at climate change
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kako se, bavljenjem klimatskim promenama
01:12
as a clean energy generation problem,
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kao problemom stvaranja čiste energije,
01:14
we're in fact setting ourselves up
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zapravo udaljavamo
01:16
not to solve it.
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od rešenja.
01:18
And the reason why
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Razlog tome
01:20
is that we live on a planet
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je činjenica da mi živimo na planeti
01:22
that is rapidly urbanizing.
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koja se ubrzano urbanizuje.
01:24
That shouldn't be news to any of us.
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Ovo ne bi trebalo biti novost za bilo koga od nas.
01:26
However, it's hard sometimes
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Međutim, ponekad je teško
01:28
to remember the extent of that urbanization.
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zapamtiti razmere te urbanizacije.
01:31
By mid-century,
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Do polovine ovog veka,
01:33
we're going to have about eight billion -- perhaps more -- people
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imaćemo oko osam milijardi ljudi -- možda i više --
01:36
living in cities or within a day's travel of one.
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koji će živeti u gradovima ili na dan putovanja od nekog grada.
01:39
We will be an overwhelmingly urban species.
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Bićemo izričito urbana vrsta.
01:42
In order to provide
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U cilju obezbeđivanja
01:44
the kind of energy that it would take
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vrste energije koja je potrebna
01:46
for eight billion people living in cities
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da osam milijardi ljudi živi u gradovima
01:48
that are even somewhat like the cities
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koji bar donekle nalikuju gradovima
01:50
that those of us in the global North live in today,
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u kakvima danas živimo mi na severnoj hemisferi,
01:52
we would have to generate
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morali bismo proizvesti
01:54
an absolutely astonishing amount of energy.
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zapanjujuću količinu energije.
01:56
It may be possible
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Moguće je
01:58
that we are not even able
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da nismo čak ni u mogućnosti
02:00
to build that much clean energy.
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da proizvedemo toliko čiste energije.
02:03
So if we're seriously talking about tackling climate change
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Pa ako već ozbiljno govorimo o bavljenju klimatskim promenama
02:06
on an urbanizing planet,
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na planeti koja se urbanizuje,
02:08
we need to look somewhere else for the solution.
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rešenje moramo potražiti na drugom mestu.
02:11
The solution, in fact, may be closer to hand than we think,
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Rešenje, zapravo, može biti bliže nego što mislimo,
02:14
because all of those cities we're building
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jer svi oni gradovi koje gradimo
02:16
are opportunities.
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su naše prilike.
02:18
Every city determines to a very large extent
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Svaki grad u velikoj meri određuje
02:21
the amount of energy used by its inhabitants.
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količinu energije koju koriste njegovi stanovnici.
02:24
We tend to think of energy use as a behavioral thing --
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Mi volimo da razmišljamo o potrošnji energije kao da je to stvar ponašanja --
02:27
I choose to turn this light switch on --
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ja odlučujem da upalim ovaj prekidač za svetlo --
02:29
but really, enormous amounts of our energy use
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ali u stvari, ogromna količina naše potrošnje energije
02:32
are predestined
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je predodređena
02:34
by the kinds of communities and cities that we live in.
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vrstom zajednica i gradova u kojima živimo.
02:37
I won't show you very many graphs today,
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Neću vam pokazati mnogo grafikona,
02:39
but if I can just focus on this one for a moment,
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ali ako mogu za trenutak da se fokusiram na ovaj,
02:42
it really tells us a lot of what we need to know --
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on nam stvarno govori mnogo o tome šta treba da znamo --
02:44
which is, quite simply,
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a to je, jednostavno,
02:46
that if you look, for example, at transportation,
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da ako, na primer, uzmemo u obzir prevoz,
02:48
a major category of climate emissions,
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glavnu kategoriju u emisiji štetnih gasova,
02:50
there is a direct relationship
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postoji direktna zavisnost
02:52
between how dense a city is
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između gustine u gradovima
02:54
and the amount of climate emissions
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i količine izduvnih gasova
02:56
that its residents spew out into the air.
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koju njegovi stanovnici ispuštaju u atmosferu.
02:59
And the correlation, of course,
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Korelacija, naravno,
03:01
is that denser places tend to have lower emissions --
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kaže da gušća mesta teže da imaju niže emisije --
03:04
which isn't really all that difficult to figure out, if you think about it.
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što i nije zapravo teško shvatiti, ako razmislite o tome.
03:07
Basically,
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U osnovi,
03:09
we substitute, in our lives,
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mi u našim životima menjamo
03:12
access to the things we want.
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pristup stvarima koje želimo.
03:14
We go out there and we hop in our cars
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Uskočimo u svoje automobile
03:16
and we drive from place to place.
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i vozimo se od jednog mesta do drugog.
03:18
And we're basically using mobility to get the access we need.
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Time koristimo mobilnost da bi dobili pristup koji nam je potreban.
03:21
But when we live in a denser community,
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Ali kada živimo u gušćoj zajednici
03:23
suddenly what we find, of course,
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odjednom shvatamo, naravno,
03:25
is that the things we need are close by.
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da potrebne stvari su zapravo blizu.
03:27
And since the most sustainable trip
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A budući da je najodrživiji put
03:29
is the one that you never had to make in the first place,
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onaj na koji iz početka ne moramo ni krenuti,
03:32
suddenly our lives become instantly more sustainable.
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odjednom naši životi istog trenutka postaju održivi.
03:35
And it is possible, of course,
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Moguće je, naravno,
03:37
to increase the density of the communities around us.
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povećati gustinu zajednica oko nas.
03:40
Some places are doing this with new eco districts,
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Neka mesta ovo izvode svojim novim eko područjima,
03:42
developing whole new sustainable neighborhoods,
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razvijajući celokupna nova održiva susedstva,
03:44
which is nice work if you can get it,
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što je lep posao ako ga možete postići,
03:46
but most of the time, what we're talking about is, in fact,
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ali većinu vremena, ono o čemu govorimo je, u stvari,
03:49
reweaving the urban fabric that we already have.
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prekrajanje urbanog materijala koji već imamo.
03:51
So we're talking about things like infill development:
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Govorimo o stvarima kao što je unutrašnji razvoj:
03:54
really sharp little changes
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iznenadne male promene
03:56
to where we have buildings, where we're developing.
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na mestima gde se nalaze zgrade, mestima gde se razvijamo.
03:58
Urban retrofitting:
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Urbana obnova:
04:00
creating different sorts of spaces and uses
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stvaranje različitih vrsta prostora i namena
04:02
out of places that are already there.
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iz mesta koja se već tamo nalaze.
04:04
Increasingly, we're realizing
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Sve više, shvatamo
04:06
that we don't even need to densify an entire city.
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da nema potrebe za zgušnjavanjem celog grada.
04:09
What we need instead is an average density
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Umesto toga potrebna nam je prosečna gustina
04:12
that rises to a level
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koja se podiže do nivoa
04:14
where we don't drive as much and so on.
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na kome ne vozimo toliko i tako dalje.
04:16
And that can be done
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A to može biti postignuto
04:18
by raising the density in very specific spots a whole lot.
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podizanjem gustine na određenim mestima.
04:21
So you can think of it as tent poles
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Možete to uporediti sa šatorskim šipkama
04:24
that actually raise the density of the entire city.
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koje zapravo podižu gustinu čitavog grada.
04:27
And we find that when we do that,
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Otkrili smo da kada uradimo to,
04:29
we can, in fact, have a few places that are really hyper-dense
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možemo, imati nekoliko mesta koja su stvarno gusto naseljena
04:31
within a wider fabric of places
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u okviru šireg tkiva mesta
04:33
that are perhaps a little more comfortable
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koja su verovatno nešto udobnija
04:35
and achieve the same results.
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i postižu iste rezultate.
04:37
Now we may find that there are places that are really, really dense
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Možemo naći da postoje mesta koja su veoma gusta,
04:40
and still hold onto their cars,
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a njeni stanovnici ne odustaju od automobila,
04:42
but the reality is that, by and large,
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ali realnost je da, sve u svemu,
04:45
what we see when we get a lot of people together with the right conditions
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ono što dobijemo kada imamo mnoštvo ljudi u pravim uslovima
04:48
is a threshold effect,
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je efekat praga,
04:50
where people simply stop driving as much,
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gde ljudi prosto prestaju toliko voziti,
04:52
and increasingly, more and more people,
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a sve više i više ljudi,
04:54
if they're surrounded by places that make them feel at home,
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ako su okruženi mestima zbog kojih se osećaju kao kod kuće,
04:56
give up their cars altogether.
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i u potpunosti odustaje od vožnje.
04:58
And this is a huge, huge energy savings,
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A to je velika, velika ušteda energije,
05:01
because what comes out of our tailpipe
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jer ono što dolazi iz izduvnih cevi
05:03
is really just the beginning of the story
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je stvarno samo početak priče
05:05
with climate emissions from cars.
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o izduvnim gasovima iz automobila.
05:07
We have the manufacture of the car, the disposal of the car,
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Imamo proizvodnju automobila, odlaganje automobilskog otpada,
05:09
all of the parking and freeways and so on.
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sve do parkinga i auto-puteva i tako dalje.
05:12
When you can get rid of all of those
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Kada uspete da se rešite svega,
05:14
because somebody doesn't use any of them really,
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zbog toga što neko ne koristi ni jedno od navedenog,
05:16
you find that you can actually cut transportation emissions
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tada otkrijete da zapravo možete smanjiti emisije izduvnih gasova
05:18
as much as 90 percent.
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čak za 90 procenata.
05:20
And people are embracing this.
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Ljudi ovo prihvataju.
05:22
All around the world, we're seeing more and more people embrace this walkshed life.
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Svugde na svetu, vidimo sve više i više ljudi koji prihvataju hodanje kao način života.
05:25
People are saying that it's moving from the idea of the dream home
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Ljudi govore da se radi o prelasku sa ideje o kući iz snova
05:28
to the dream neighborhood.
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na susedstvo iz snova.
05:30
And when you layer that over
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A kada tome dodate
05:32
with the kind of ubiquitous communications that we're starting to see,
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sveprisutnu komunikaciju koju počinjemo da uviđamo,
05:35
what you find is, in fact,
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ono što prvo dobijete, je zapravo,
05:37
even more access suffused into spaces.
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još veći pristup raširen u prostoru.
05:40
Some of it's transportation access.
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Pristup prevozu deo je toga.
05:42
This is a Mapnificent map that shows me, in this case,
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Ovo je "Mapnificent" mapa koja mi, u ovom slučaju, pokazuje
05:45
how far I can get from my home in 30 minutes
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koliko daleko mogu odmaći od svoje kuće za 30 minuta
05:47
using public transportation.
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koristeći javni prevoz.
05:49
Some of it is about walking. It's not all perfect yet.
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Drugi deo se odnosi na pešačenje. Još nije usavršeno.
05:51
This is Google Walking Maps.
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Ovo su Guglove mape pešačenja.
05:53
I asked how to do the greater Ridgeway,
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Pitao sam kako do Ridžveja,
05:55
and it told me to go via Guernsey.
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i rekao mi je da idem preko Gernsija.
05:57
It did tell me that this route
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Ipak me je upozorio da ova ruta
05:59
maybe missing sidewalks or pedestrian paths, though.
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možda ipak nema trotoare i pešačke staze.
06:01
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:03
But the technologies are getting better,
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Ali tehnologije napreduju,
06:05
and we're starting to really kind of crowdsource this navigation.
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i počinjemo da zajednički pravimo ovakvu navigaciju.
06:07
And as we just heard earlier,
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Kao što smo upravo čuli ranije,
06:09
of course, we're also learning how to put information on dumb objects.
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naravno, da takođe učimo kako da postavimo informacije na neme predmete.
06:12
Things that don't have any wiring in them at all,
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Stvari koje u sebi nemaju nikakve žice,
06:14
we're learning how to include
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učimo kako uključiti
06:16
in these systems of notation and navigation.
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u ove sisteme obeležavanja i navigacije.
06:19
Part of what we're finding with this
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Deo koji otkrivamo pomoću toga
06:21
is that what we thought
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je onaj za koji smo mislili
06:23
was the major point
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da je glavna tačka
06:25
of manufacturing and consumption,
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proizvodnje i potrošnje,
06:28
which is to get a bunch of stuff,
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kojom se dobija većina stvari,
06:30
is not, in fact,
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i koja zapravo nije
06:32
how we really live best in dense environments.
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najbolji način života u gustim okruženjima
06:34
What we're finding is that what we want
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Otkrili smo da je ono što želimo
06:36
is access to the capacities of things.
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pristup kapacitetima stvari.
06:38
My favorite example is a drill. Who here owns a drill, a home power drill?
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Moj omiljeni primer je bušilica. Ko ovde poseduje kućnu električnu bušilicu?
06:41
Okay. I do too.
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U redu, i ja takođe.
06:43
The average home power drill is used somewhere between six and 20 minutes
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Prosečna kućna bušilica se koristi negde između 6 i 20 minuta
06:45
in its entire lifetime,
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u celom svom radnom veku,
06:47
depending on who you ask.
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zavisno od toga koga pitate.
06:49
And so what we do is we buy these drills
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I tako mi kupujemo ove bušilice
06:52
that have a potential capacity of thousands of hours of drill time,
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koje imaju potencijalni kapacitet od više hiljada sati bušenja,
06:55
use them once or twice to put a hole in the wall and let them sit.
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upotrebimo ih koji put za bušenje rupe u zidu i pustimo ih da stoje.
06:58
Our cities, I would put to you,
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Naši gradovi, rekao bih,
07:00
are stockpiles of these surplus capacities.
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su gomila ovih suvišnih kapaciteta.
07:03
And while we could try and figure out
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I dok mi pokušavamo da shvatimo
07:05
new ways to use those capacities --
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nove načine da koristimo te kapacitete --
07:07
such as cooking or making ice sculptures
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kao što je kuvanje ili pravljenje ledenih skulptura
07:09
or even a mafia hit --
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ili čak i mafijaško ubistvo --
07:11
what we probably will find
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ono što ćemo verovatno otkriti
07:13
is that, in fact, turning those products into services
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je, u stvari, da pretvaranje ovih proizvoda u usluge
07:15
that we have access to when we want them,
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kojima imamo pristup kada to želimo,
07:17
is a far smarter way to go.
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je znatno pametnija stvar.
07:20
And in fact, even space itself is turning into a service.
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Zapravo se čak i prostor pretvara u uslugu.
07:23
We're finding that people can share the same spaces,
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Nalazimo da ljudi mogu deliti isti prostor,
07:25
do stuff with vacant space.
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raditi razne stvari sa praznim prostorom.
07:28
Buildings are becoming bundles of services.
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Građevine se pretvaraju u skup usluga.
07:30
So we have new designs
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Tako imamo nove projekte
07:32
that are helping us take mechanical things that we used to spend energy on --
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koji nam pomažu da uzmemo mehaničke stvari na koje smo trošili energiju --
07:35
like heating, cooling etc. --
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kao što je grejanje, hlađenje itd --
07:37
and turn them into things that we avoid spending energy on.
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i pretvorimo ih u stvari koje izbegavaju da nadalje troše energiju.
07:40
So we light our buildings with daylight.
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Tako bismo zgrade osvetljavali dnevnom svetlošću.
07:42
We cool them with breezes. We heat them with sunshine.
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Hladili bismo ih strujanjem vazduha. Grejali sunčevom svetlošću.
07:45
In fact, when we use all these things,
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Zapravo, kada koristimo sve ove stvari,
07:47
what we've found is that, in some cases,
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otkrivamo da, u nekim slučajevima,
07:49
energy use in a building can drop as much as 90 percent.
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upotreba energije u nekim zgradama može opasti za čak 90 procenata.
07:51
Which brings on another threshold effect
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Što nas dovodi do još jednog efekta praga
07:53
I like to call furnace dumping,
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koji ja volim da nazovem odbacivanje peći,
07:55
which is, quite simply,
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što je, prosto, ukoliko imate
07:57
if you have a building that doesn't need to be heated with a furnace,
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zgradu koja nema potrebe za grejanjem pomoću peći,
07:59
you save a whole bunch of money up front.
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unapred imate uštedu gomile novca.
08:01
These things actually become cheaper to build
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Zapravo postaje jeftinije graditi takve zgrade
08:03
than the alternatives.
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za razliku od alternativa.
08:05
Now when we look at being able
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Sada kada razmislimo o mogućnosti
08:08
to slash our product use, slash our transportation use,
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da umanjimo upotrebu proizvoda, prevoza,
08:11
slash our building energy use,
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energije u zgradama,
08:13
all of that is great, but it still leaves something behind.
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sve je to sjajno, ali i dalje ostavlja za sobom neke posledice.
08:16
And if we're going to really, truly become sustainable cities,
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Ako zaista želimo da postanemo pravi održivi gradovi,
08:18
we need to think a little differently.
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moramo razmišljati nešto drugačije.
08:20
This is one way to do it.
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Ovo je jedan način.
08:22
This is Vancouver's propaganda about how green a city they are.
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Ovo je propaganda Vankuvera o tome kakav su oni zeleni grad.
08:24
And certainly lots of people have taken to heart
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I zasigurno je mnogo ljudi shvatilo ozbiljno
08:26
this idea that a sustainable city is covered in greenery.
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ideju da je održiv grad prekriven zelenilom.
08:29
So we have visions like this.
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Imamo ovakve vizije.
08:31
We have visions like this. We have visions like this.
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I ovakve. I ovakve.
08:34
Now all of these are fine projects,
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Sve su ovo dobri projekti,
08:36
but they really have missed an essential point,
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ali su stvarno promašili suštinu,
08:39
which is it's not about the leaves above,
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koja se ne odnosi na lišće iznad,
08:41
it's about the systems below.
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već na sistem ispod.
08:43
Do they, for instance, capture rainwater
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Skupljaju li, na primer, kišnicu
08:45
so that we can reduce water use?
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da bismo mogli smanjiti upotrebu vode?
08:47
Water is energy intensive.
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Voda je energetski intenzivna.
08:50
Do they, perhaps, include green infrastructure,
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Da li, možda, podrazumevaju zelenu infranstrukturu,
08:52
so that we can take runoff
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da bismo mogli uzeti kišnicu
08:54
and water that's going out of our houses
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i vodu koja potiče iz naših domova
08:56
and clean it and filter it
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kao i da je pročiste i filtriraju
08:58
and grow urban street trees?
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za navodnjavanje urbanog zelenila?
09:00
Do they connect us back to the ecosystems around us
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Povezuju li nas ponovno sa ekosistemima oko nas
09:03
by, for example, connecting us to rivers
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tako što nas, na primer, povezuju sa rekama
09:05
and allowing for restoration?
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i omogućuju obnavljanje?
09:07
Do they allow for pollination,
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Da li dozvoljavaju oprašivanje,
09:09
pollinator pathways
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puteve za oprašivače
09:11
that bees and butterflies and such can come back into our cities?
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kako bi se pčele i leptiri mogli vratiti u naše gradove?
09:14
Do they even take the very waste matter
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Uzimaju li uopšte sam otpad
09:16
that we have from food and fiber and so forth,
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od naše hrane, materijala i tako dalje,
09:19
and turn it back into soil
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i da li ih vraćaju zemlji
09:21
and sequester carbon --
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odvajajući ugljenik --
09:23
take carbon out of the air
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uzimajući ugljenik iz vazduha
09:25
in the process of using our cities?
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u procesu iskorišćavanja naših gradova?
09:27
I would submit to you that all of these things are not only possible,
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Priznao bih vam da su sve te stvari ne samo moguće,
09:30
they're being done right now,
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nego se već sada rade,
09:32
and that it's a darn good thing.
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što je stvarno dobra stvar.
09:34
Because right now, our economy by and large
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Zbog toga što u ovom trenutku, naša ekonomija
09:37
operates as Paul Hawken said,
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funkcioniše kako je Pol Hoken rekao,
09:39
"by stealing the future, selling it in the present
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"kradući budućnost, prodajući je u sadašnjosti
09:41
and calling it GDP."
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i nazivajući je BDP-om".
09:43
And if we have another eight billion
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I ako dodatnih osam milijardi
09:45
or seven billion,
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ili sedam milijardi,
09:47
or six billion, even, people,
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ili čak šest milijardi ljudi,
09:49
living on a planet where their cities also steal the future,
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živi na planeti gde njihovi gradovi takođe kradu budućnost,
09:52
we're going to run out of future really fast.
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vrlo brzo će nam ponestati te budućnosti.
09:54
But if we think differently,
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Ali ako budemo drugačije razmišljali,
09:56
I think that, in fact, we can have cities
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mislim da možemo imati gradove
09:58
that are not only zero emissions,
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koji ne samo da imaju nultu emisiju,
10:00
but have unlimited possibilities as well.
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već imaju i neograničene mogućnosti.
10:02
Thank you very much.
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Puno vam hvala
10:04
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alex Steffen - Planetary futuristAlex Steffen explores our planet's future, telling powerful, inspiring stories about the hard choices facing humanity ... and our opportunity to create a much better tomorrow.
Why you should listen
Do you ever wonder whether we should be optimistic or pessimistic about the future? If you want more reasons to think things may still turn out for the better, Alex Steffen's your man. He doesn't downplay the scope and scale of the problems we face. Instead, he shows that we have the tools within our grasp for meeting those massive challenges, if we have the will to use them.
This isn't just hopeful thinking, either. Steffen uses real-world examples and big-picture research to show us that a brighter, greener future is ours to choose, and his work has earned him the ear of leading cities, corporations and philanthropic foundations. As the New York Times said a recent profile, "Alex Steffen lays out the blueprint for a successful century."
After working as a journalist on four continents, Steffen co-founded and ran the online magazine Worldchanging.com from 2003-2010. In those seven years, he made Worldchanging one of the world's leading sustainability-related publications with an archive of almost 12,000 articles and a large global audience. He also edited an internationally best-selling book surveying innovative solutions to the planet's most pressing problems: Worldchanging: A User's Guide for the 21st Century.
His most recent work is Carbon Zero, a book describing cities that create prosperity not climate change, accelerating their economies while reducing their climate emissions to zero. He is now at work on a new book and a television project. "The big open secret about sustainability work," he recently told Design Observer magazine, 'is not how bad things are. It is how good things can get."
Alex Steffen | Speaker | TED.com