TEDGlobal 2011
Alex Steffen: The shareable future of cities
Alex Steffen: Djeljiva budućnost gradova
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Kako gradovi mogu spasiti budućnost? Alex Steffen pokazuje neke zanimljive zelene projekte na razini kvartova koji povećavaju naš pristup onome što želimo i trebamo -- istovremeno smanjujući vrijeme koje provodimo u automobilima.
Alex Steffen - Planetary futurist
Alex Steffen explores our planet's future, telling powerful, inspiring stories about the hard choices facing humanity ... and our opportunity to create a much better tomorrow. Full bio
Alex Steffen explores our planet's future, telling powerful, inspiring stories about the hard choices facing humanity ... and our opportunity to create a much better tomorrow. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Climate change is already a heavy topic,
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Klimatske su promjene ozbiljna tema
00:17
and it's getting heavier
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koja postaje sve ozbiljnija
00:19
because we're understanding
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jer počinjemo shvaćati
00:21
that we need to do more than we are.
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da moramo učiniti više nego što činimo.
00:23
We're understanding, in fact,
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Zapravo, počinjemo shvaćati
00:25
that those of us who live in the developed world
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da bi oni od nas koji žive u razvijenom svijetu
00:27
need to be really pushing towards eliminating our emissions.
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trebali nastojati otkloniti emisije štetnih plinova.
00:30
That's, to put it mildly, not what's on the table now.
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O tome se, blago rečeno, trenutno ne raspravlja.
00:33
And it tends to feel a little overwhelming
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I pomalo nas zaprepasti
00:35
when we look at what is there in reality today
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kada otvorimo oči pred današnjom situacijom
00:38
and the magnitude of the problem that we face.
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i opsegom problema s kojima smo suočeni.
00:41
And when we have overwhelming problems in front of us,
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Kada se tako golemi problemi nađu pred nama,
00:44
we tend to seek simple answers.
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obično tražimo jednostavna rješenja.
00:47
And I think this is what we've done with climate change.
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Mislim da to radimo i s klimatskim promjenama.
00:50
We look at where the emissions are coming from --
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Pitamo se odakle emisije plinova dolaze --
00:52
they're coming out of our tailpipes and smokestacks and so forth,
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dolaze iz ispušnih cijevi, dimnjaka i tako dalje,
00:55
and we say, okay, well the problem is
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i kažemo, u redu, problem je u tome
00:57
that they're coming out of fossil fuels that we're burning,
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što dolaze iz fosilnih goriva koje koristimo,
00:59
so therefore, the answer must be
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dakle, rješenje mora biti
01:02
to replace those fossil fuels with clean sources of energy.
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zamjena fosilnih goriva čistim izvorima energije.
01:05
And while, of course, we do need clean energy,
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I dok nam, naravno, treba čista energija,
01:08
I would put to you that it's possible
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naglasio bih da je moguće
01:10
that by looking at climate change
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da se bavljenjem klimatskim promjenama
01:12
as a clean energy generation problem,
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kao problemom stvaranja čiste energije,
01:14
we're in fact setting ourselves up
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zapravo udaljavamo
01:16
not to solve it.
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od rješenja.
01:18
And the reason why
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Razlog tome je
01:20
is that we live on a planet
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to što živimo na planetu
01:22
that is rapidly urbanizing.
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koji se ubrzano urbanizira.
01:24
That shouldn't be news to any of us.
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To nam ne bi trebala biti novost.
01:26
However, it's hard sometimes
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Ipak, ponekad je teško
01:28
to remember the extent of that urbanization.
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imati u vidu razmjere urbanizacije.
01:31
By mid-century,
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Do polovice ovog stoljeća,
01:33
we're going to have about eight billion -- perhaps more -- people
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oko osam milijardi ljudi, možda i više,
01:36
living in cities or within a day's travel of one.
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živjet će u gradovima ili na dan udaljenosti.
01:39
We will be an overwhelmingly urban species.
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Bit ćemo iznimno urbana vrsta.
01:42
In order to provide
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Da bismo osigurali
01:44
the kind of energy that it would take
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vrstu energije koja će biti potrebna
01:46
for eight billion people living in cities
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za osam milijardi ljudi u gradovima
01:48
that are even somewhat like the cities
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koji bar donekle nalikuju gradovima
01:50
that those of us in the global North live in today,
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u kakvima danas živimo mi na sjevernoj hemisferi,
01:52
we would have to generate
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morali bismo proizvesti
01:54
an absolutely astonishing amount of energy.
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potpuno zapanjujuću količinu energije.
01:56
It may be possible
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Moguće je
01:58
that we are not even able
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da nismo čak ni u mogućnosti
02:00
to build that much clean energy.
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proizvesti toliko čiste energije.
02:03
So if we're seriously talking about tackling climate change
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Ako ozbiljno govorimo o suočavanju s klimatskim promjenama
02:06
on an urbanizing planet,
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na planetu koji se urbanizira,
02:08
we need to look somewhere else for the solution.
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rješenje moramo potražiti negdje drugdje.
02:11
The solution, in fact, may be closer to hand than we think,
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To nam je rješenje možda bliže nego što mislimo.
02:14
because all of those cities we're building
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Jer svi gradovi koje gradimo
02:16
are opportunities.
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prilike su.
02:18
Every city determines to a very large extent
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Svaki grad u velikoj mjeri određuje
02:21
the amount of energy used by its inhabitants.
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količinu energije koju troše njegovi stanovnici.
02:24
We tend to think of energy use as a behavioral thing --
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Mislimo da korištenje energije ovisi o ponašanju --
02:27
I choose to turn this light switch on --
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ja odlučujem hoću li uključiti ovaj prekidač --
02:29
but really, enormous amounts of our energy use
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no zapravo, goleme količine naše potrošnje energije
02:32
are predestined
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predodređeno je
02:34
by the kinds of communities and cities that we live in.
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vrstom zajednice i grada u kojemu živimo.
02:37
I won't show you very many graphs today,
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Danas vam neću pokazati mnogo grafikona,
02:39
but if I can just focus on this one for a moment,
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ali ako na trenutak obratite pažnju na ovaj,
02:42
it really tells us a lot of what we need to know --
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reći će nam mnoge stvari koje trebamo znati --
02:44
which is, quite simply,
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a to je, pojednostavljeno,
02:46
that if you look, for example, at transportation,
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da ako, na primjer, uzmemo u obzir prijevoz,
02:48
a major category of climate emissions,
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bitnu stavku u emisiji štetnih plinova,
02:50
there is a direct relationship
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postoji izravna veza
02:52
between how dense a city is
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između napučenosti grada
02:54
and the amount of climate emissions
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i količine ispušnih plinova
02:56
that its residents spew out into the air.
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koje njegovi stanovnici ispuštaju u zrak.
02:59
And the correlation, of course,
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A povezanost je naravno ta
03:01
is that denser places tend to have lower emissions --
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da napučenija naselja imaju nižu razinu emisije --
03:04
which isn't really all that difficult to figure out, if you think about it.
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što uopće nije teško razumjeti, ako malo razmislite.
03:07
Basically,
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Zapravo,
03:09
we substitute, in our lives,
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u svojim životima zamjenjujemo
03:12
access to the things we want.
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pristup stvarima koje želimo.
03:14
We go out there and we hop in our cars
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Izađemo van, uskočimo u automobil
03:16
and we drive from place to place.
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i vozimo se od jednog mjesta do drugog.
03:18
And we're basically using mobility to get the access we need.
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Zapravo koristimo mobilnost da bismo pristupili onome što trebamo.
03:21
But when we live in a denser community,
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Ali kada živimo u napučenijem prostoru,
03:23
suddenly what we find, of course,
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najednom shvaćamo, naravno,
03:25
is that the things we need are close by.
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da su stvari koje trebamo blizu.
03:27
And since the most sustainable trip
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A budući da je najodrživiji put
03:29
is the one that you never had to make in the first place,
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onaj na koji ne moramo ni krenuti,
03:32
suddenly our lives become instantly more sustainable.
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odjednom naši životi u trenu postaju održiviji.
03:35
And it is possible, of course,
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Naravno da je moguće
03:37
to increase the density of the communities around us.
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povećati gustoću zajednica oko nas.
03:40
Some places are doing this with new eco districts,
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Ponegdje se to čini izgradnjom novih eko područja,
03:42
developing whole new sustainable neighborhoods,
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razvojem cijelih novih održivih četvrti,
03:44
which is nice work if you can get it,
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što je lijepo ako to možete postići.
03:46
but most of the time, what we're talking about is, in fact,
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No većinu vremena, ono o čemu govorimo je zapravo
03:49
reweaving the urban fabric that we already have.
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prekrajanje urbanog materijala koji već imamo.
03:51
So we're talking about things like infill development:
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Govorimo o stvarima poput unutarnjeg razvoja:
03:54
really sharp little changes
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iznenadne male promjene
03:56
to where we have buildings, where we're developing.
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na mjestima gdje se građevine nalaze, mjestima razvoja.
03:58
Urban retrofitting:
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Urbana obnova:
04:00
creating different sorts of spaces and uses
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stvaranje raznih vrsta prostora i namjena
04:02
out of places that are already there.
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na mjestima koja već postoje.
04:04
Increasingly, we're realizing
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Sve više shvaćamo
04:06
that we don't even need to densify an entire city.
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da nije potrebno povećati gustoću cijeloga grada.
04:09
What we need instead is an average density
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Potrebno je postići prosječnu gustoću
04:12
that rises to a level
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koja raste do razine
04:14
where we don't drive as much and so on.
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na kojoj ne vozimo toliko i tako dalje.
04:16
And that can be done
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A to je moguće postići
04:18
by raising the density in very specific spots a whole lot.
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znatnim povećanjem gustoće izgrađenosti na određenim mjestima.
04:21
So you can think of it as tent poles
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Možete to usporediti sa šatorskim šipkama
04:24
that actually raise the density of the entire city.
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koje zapravo povećavaju gustoću cijelog grada.
04:27
And we find that when we do that,
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Shvaćamo da kada to činimo
04:29
we can, in fact, have a few places that are really hyper-dense
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možemo imati nekoliko mjesta iznimne gustoće
04:31
within a wider fabric of places
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unutar šireg materijala naselja
04:33
that are perhaps a little more comfortable
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koja su možda malo ugodnija
04:35
and achieve the same results.
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i postižu jednake rezultate.
04:37
Now we may find that there are places that are really, really dense
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Možemo pronaći mjesta koja su veoma, veoma gusta
04:40
and still hold onto their cars,
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no ne odustaju od automobila.
04:42
but the reality is that, by and large,
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Istina je da, sve u svemu,
04:45
what we see when we get a lot of people together with the right conditions
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ono što dobijemo kada imamo mnoštvo ljudi u pravim uvjetima
04:48
is a threshold effect,
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je efekt praga,
04:50
where people simply stop driving as much,
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pri čemu ljudi prestaju toliko voziti,
04:52
and increasingly, more and more people,
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a sve više ljudi,
04:54
if they're surrounded by places that make them feel at home,
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ako su okruženi mjestima zbog kojih se osjećaju kao kod kuće,
04:56
give up their cars altogether.
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u potpunosti odustaju od vožnje.
04:58
And this is a huge, huge energy savings,
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Dolazi do goleme uštede energije.
05:01
because what comes out of our tailpipe
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Jer ono što izlazi iz ispušnih cijevi
05:03
is really just the beginning of the story
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samo je početak priče
05:05
with climate emissions from cars.
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o ispušnim plinovima iz automobila.
05:07
We have the manufacture of the car, the disposal of the car,
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Imamo proizvodnju automobila, odlaganje automobila,
05:09
all of the parking and freeways and so on.
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parkirna mjesta, autoceste i tako dalje.
05:12
When you can get rid of all of those
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Kada se uspijete riješiti svega toga
05:14
because somebody doesn't use any of them really,
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jer ih netko uopće ne koristi,
05:16
you find that you can actually cut transportation emissions
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shvatit ćete da zapravo možete smanjiti emisije ispušnih plinova
05:18
as much as 90 percent.
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čak za 90 posto.
05:20
And people are embracing this.
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I ljudi to prihvaćaju.
05:22
All around the world, we're seeing more and more people embrace this walkshed life.
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Diljem svijeta svjedočimo tome da sve više ljudi prihvaća hodalački način života.
05:25
People are saying that it's moving from the idea of the dream home
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Ljudi govore da se radi o prelasku s ideje o domu iz snova
05:28
to the dream neighborhood.
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na susjedstvo iz snova.
05:30
And when you layer that over
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A kada tome dodate
05:32
with the kind of ubiquitous communications that we're starting to see,
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sveprisutnu komunikaciju koja se pojavljuje,
05:35
what you find is, in fact,
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ono što dobijete je zapravo
05:37
even more access suffused into spaces.
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još više pristupa raširenog u prostoru.
05:40
Some of it's transportation access.
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Pristup prijevozu dio je toga.
05:42
This is a Mapnificent map that shows me, in this case,
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Ovo je karta Mapnificent koja mi u ovom slučaju pokazuje
05:45
how far I can get from my home in 30 minutes
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koliko daleko mogu stići od svoje kuće za 30 minuta
05:47
using public transportation.
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pomoću javnog prijevoza.
05:49
Some of it is about walking. It's not all perfect yet.
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Drugi dio je pješačenje. Još nije usavršen.
05:51
This is Google Walking Maps.
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Ovo su Googleove Walking Maps.
05:53
I asked how to do the greater Ridgeway,
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Pitao sam kako proći stazu Greater Ridgeway
05:55
and it told me to go via Guernsey.
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i rekao mi je da idem preko Guernseya.
05:57
It did tell me that this route
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Ipak me upozorio da taj put
05:59
maybe missing sidewalks or pedestrian paths, though.
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možda nema nogostupe i pješačke staze.
06:01
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:03
But the technologies are getting better,
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No tehnologije napreduju
06:05
and we're starting to really kind of crowdsource this navigation.
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i na neki način počinjemo iskorištavati takvu navigaciju.
06:07
And as we just heard earlier,
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Kao što smo ranije čuli
06:09
of course, we're also learning how to put information on dumb objects.
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također učimo kako staviti informacije na nijeme predmete.
06:12
Things that don't have any wiring in them at all,
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Predmete koje nemaju nikakve žice u sebi,
06:14
we're learning how to include
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učimo kako u njih uključiti
06:16
in these systems of notation and navigation.
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notacijske i navigacijske sustave.
06:19
Part of what we're finding with this
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Ono što otkrivamo pomoću toga
06:21
is that what we thought
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je da ono što smo mislili
06:23
was the major point
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da je najvažnije
06:25
of manufacturing and consumption,
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pri proizvodnji i potrošnji,
06:28
which is to get a bunch of stuff,
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odnosno imati hrpu stvari
06:30
is not, in fact,
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zapravo nije
06:32
how we really live best in dense environments.
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najbolji način života u napučenim prostorima.
06:34
What we're finding is that what we want
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Otkrili smo da je ono što želimo
06:36
is access to the capacities of things.
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pristup velikim količinama stvari.
06:38
My favorite example is a drill. Who here owns a drill, a home power drill?
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Moj omiljeni primjer je bušilica. Tko ovdje posjeduje kućnu električnu bušilicu?
06:41
Okay. I do too.
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OK. Ja također.
06:43
The average home power drill is used somewhere between six and 20 minutes
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Prosječna bušilica koristi se između šest i 20 minuta
06:45
in its entire lifetime,
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u čitavom radnom vijeku
06:47
depending on who you ask.
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ovisno o tome koga pitate.
06:49
And so what we do is we buy these drills
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I tako mi kupujemo te bušilice
06:52
that have a potential capacity of thousands of hours of drill time,
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čiji potencijalni kapacitet iznosi na tisuće sati bušenja,
06:55
use them once or twice to put a hole in the wall and let them sit.
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upotrijebimo ih koji put za bušenje rupe u zidu i pustimo ih da stoje.
06:58
Our cities, I would put to you,
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Naši gradovi, rekao bih,
07:00
are stockpiles of these surplus capacities.
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rezerve su tih suvišnih kapaciteta.
07:03
And while we could try and figure out
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Mogli bismo se potruditi i pronaći
07:05
new ways to use those capacities --
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nove načine korištenja tih kapaciteta --
07:07
such as cooking or making ice sculptures
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kao što je kuhanje ili izrada skulptura od leda
07:09
or even a mafia hit --
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čak i mafijaški napad --
07:11
what we probably will find
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ono što ćemo vjerojatno otkriti
07:13
is that, in fact, turning those products into services
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je da je pretvaranje tih proizvoda u usluge
07:15
that we have access to when we want them,
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kojima imamo pristup kada to želimo
07:17
is a far smarter way to go.
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znatno pametnija mogućnost.
07:20
And in fact, even space itself is turning into a service.
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Zapravo se sam prostor pretvara u uslugu.
07:23
We're finding that people can share the same spaces,
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Otkrivamo da ljudi mogu dijeliti isti prostor,
07:25
do stuff with vacant space.
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raditi svašta s praznim prostorom.
07:28
Buildings are becoming bundles of services.
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Zgrade se pretvaraju u skupine usluga.
07:30
So we have new designs
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Imamo nove projekte
07:32
that are helping us take mechanical things that we used to spend energy on --
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pomoću kojih možemo mehaničke stvari na koje smo trošili energiju --
07:35
like heating, cooling etc. --
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poput grijanja, hlađenja itd. --
07:37
and turn them into things that we avoid spending energy on.
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pretvoriti u stvari na koje ne želimo trošiti energiju.
07:40
So we light our buildings with daylight.
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Tako osvjetljavamo zgrade prirodnim svjetlom.
07:42
We cool them with breezes. We heat them with sunshine.
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Hladimo ih strujanjem zraka. Grijemo ih sunčevom energijom.
07:45
In fact, when we use all these things,
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Zapravo kada koristimo te stvari,
07:47
what we've found is that, in some cases,
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otkrili smo da se u nekim slučajevima
07:49
energy use in a building can drop as much as 90 percent.
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uporaba energije u zgradi može smanjiti za čak 90 posto.
07:51
Which brings on another threshold effect
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To nas dovodi do još jednog efekta praga
07:53
I like to call furnace dumping,
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koji zovem odbacivanje peći.
07:55
which is, quite simply,
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Što je, pojednostavljeno,
07:57
if you have a building that doesn't need to be heated with a furnace,
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ako postoji zgrada koju nije potrebno grijati pomoću peći,
07:59
you save a whole bunch of money up front.
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unaprijed ćete uštediti veliku količinu novca.
08:01
These things actually become cheaper to build
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Zapravo postaje jeftinije graditi takve zgrade
08:03
than the alternatives.
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nego alternative.
08:05
Now when we look at being able
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Kada razmislimo o mogućnosti
08:08
to slash our product use, slash our transportation use,
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smanjenja uporabe proizvoda, rezanja korištenja prijevoza,
08:11
slash our building energy use,
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rezanja potrošnje energije u domu,
08:13
all of that is great, but it still leaves something behind.
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sve je to divno, no ipak ima svoje posljedice.
08:16
And if we're going to really, truly become sustainable cities,
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Ako zaista želimo postati pravi održivi gradovi
08:18
we need to think a little differently.
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moramo razmišljati malo drukčije.
08:20
This is one way to do it.
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Ovo je jedan od načina.
08:22
This is Vancouver's propaganda about how green a city they are.
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Ovo je Vancouverova propaganda o tome koliko su zelen grad.
08:24
And certainly lots of people have taken to heart
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I zasigurno je mnogo ljudi ozbiljno shvatilo
08:26
this idea that a sustainable city is covered in greenery.
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ideju da održivi grad treba biti prekriven zelenilom.
08:29
So we have visions like this.
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Ovo su vizije kakve imamo.
08:31
We have visions like this. We have visions like this.
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Ovo su vizije kakve imamo. Ovo su vizije kakve imamo.
08:34
Now all of these are fine projects,
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Sve su to dobri projekti,
08:36
but they really have missed an essential point,
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no zapravo im je promakla temeljna činjenica
08:39
which is it's not about the leaves above,
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da se ne radi o lišću iznad,
08:41
it's about the systems below.
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nego o sustavima ispod.
08:43
Do they, for instance, capture rainwater
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Skupljaju li, na primjer, kišnicu
08:45
so that we can reduce water use?
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kako bismo smanjili uporabu vode?
08:47
Water is energy intensive.
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Voda je energetski snažna.
08:50
Do they, perhaps, include green infrastructure,
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Uključuju li možda zelenu infrastrukturu
08:52
so that we can take runoff
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da bismo mogli uzeti kišnicu
08:54
and water that's going out of our houses
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i vodu koju ispuštamo iz svojih domova,
08:56
and clean it and filter it
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očistiti je i filtrirati
08:58
and grow urban street trees?
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za navodnjavanje urbanog zelenila?
09:00
Do they connect us back to the ecosystems around us
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Povezuju li nas ponovno s ekosustavima oko nas
09:03
by, for example, connecting us to rivers
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tako da nas povezuju s rijekama
09:05
and allowing for restoration?
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i omogućuju obnavljanje?
09:07
Do they allow for pollination,
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Omogućuju li oprašivanje,
09:09
pollinator pathways
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putove za oprašivače
09:11
that bees and butterflies and such can come back into our cities?
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kako bi se pčele i leptiri mogli vratiti u naše gradove?
09:14
Do they even take the very waste matter
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Uzimaju li uopće sam otpad
09:16
that we have from food and fiber and so forth,
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od naše hrane, vlakana i tako dalje,
09:19
and turn it back into soil
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i vraćaju ih zemlji
09:21
and sequester carbon --
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i odvajaju ugljik --
09:23
take carbon out of the air
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uzimaju ugljik iz zraka
09:25
in the process of using our cities?
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u postupku iskorištavanja gradova?
09:27
I would submit to you that all of these things are not only possible,
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Priznao bih vam da su sve te stvari ne samo moguće,
09:30
they're being done right now,
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nego se već rade
09:32
and that it's a darn good thing.
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što je stvarno dobra stvar.
09:34
Because right now, our economy by and large
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U ovom trenutku naše gospodarstvo općenito
09:37
operates as Paul Hawken said,
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funkcionira kako je rekao Paul Hawken:
09:39
"by stealing the future, selling it in the present
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"ukradite budućnost, prodajte je u sadašnjosti
09:41
and calling it GDP."
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i nazovite je BDP".
09:43
And if we have another eight billion
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Ako dodatnih osam milijardi
09:45
or seven billion,
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ili sedam milijardi
09:47
or six billion, even, people,
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ili čak šest milijardi ljudi
09:49
living on a planet where their cities also steal the future,
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živi na planetu na kojemu njihovi gradovi kradu budućnost
09:52
we're going to run out of future really fast.
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ubrzo će nam ponestati te budućnosti.
09:54
But if we think differently,
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No ako počnemo drukčije razmišljati
09:56
I think that, in fact, we can have cities
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mislim da zapravo možemo imati gradove
09:58
that are not only zero emissions,
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ne samo bez emisije štetnih plinova,
10:00
but have unlimited possibilities as well.
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no također s beskrajnim mogućnostima.
10:02
Thank you very much.
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Puno vam hvala.
10:04
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alex Steffen - Planetary futuristAlex Steffen explores our planet's future, telling powerful, inspiring stories about the hard choices facing humanity ... and our opportunity to create a much better tomorrow.
Why you should listen
Do you ever wonder whether we should be optimistic or pessimistic about the future? If you want more reasons to think things may still turn out for the better, Alex Steffen's your man. He doesn't downplay the scope and scale of the problems we face. Instead, he shows that we have the tools within our grasp for meeting those massive challenges, if we have the will to use them.
This isn't just hopeful thinking, either. Steffen uses real-world examples and big-picture research to show us that a brighter, greener future is ours to choose, and his work has earned him the ear of leading cities, corporations and philanthropic foundations. As the New York Times said a recent profile, "Alex Steffen lays out the blueprint for a successful century."
After working as a journalist on four continents, Steffen co-founded and ran the online magazine Worldchanging.com from 2003-2010. In those seven years, he made Worldchanging one of the world's leading sustainability-related publications with an archive of almost 12,000 articles and a large global audience. He also edited an internationally best-selling book surveying innovative solutions to the planet's most pressing problems: Worldchanging: A User's Guide for the 21st Century.
His most recent work is Carbon Zero, a book describing cities that create prosperity not climate change, accelerating their economies while reducing their climate emissions to zero. He is now at work on a new book and a television project. "The big open secret about sustainability work," he recently told Design Observer magazine, 'is not how bad things are. It is how good things can get."
Alex Steffen | Speaker | TED.com