TED2013
Erik Brynjolfsson: The key to growth? Race with the machines
Erik Brinojolfson (Erik Brynjolfsson): Ključ rasta? Takmičenje sa mašinama
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Puno ljudi ostaje bez posla ili im odlažu povišice u nedogled, kako mašine preuzimaju sve više poslova. Da li je ovo kraj rasta? Erik Brinojolfson kaže da nije - to su jednostavno problemi u rastu radikalno izmenjene ekonomije. Ovo je ubedljivi argument toga zašto su velike inovacije ispred nas... ako o kompjuterima mislimo kao o svojim saigračima. Obavezno pogledajte suprotno mišljenje Roberta Gordona.
Erik Brynjolfsson - Innovation researcher
Erik Brynjolfsson examines the effects of information technologies on business strategy, productivity and employment. Full bio
Erik Brynjolfsson examines the effects of information technologies on business strategy, productivity and employment. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Growth is not dead.
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Rast nije mrtav.
00:14
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
00:16
Let's start the story 120 years ago,
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Hajde da krenemo s pričom
pre 120 godina
pre 120 godina
00:20
when American factories began to electrify their operations,
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kada su američke fabrike
u svoje operacije počele uvode struju
u svoje operacije počele uvode struju
00:23
igniting the Second Industrial Revolution.
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i pokreću Drugu industrijsku revoluciju.
00:27
The amazing thing is
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Neverovatno je da
00:28
that productivity did not increase in those factories
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produktivnost u tim fabrikama
nije porasla
nije porasla
00:31
for 30 years. Thirty years.
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30 godina. Trideset godina.
00:34
That's long enough for a generation of managers to retire.
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To je dovoljno dugo da se penzioniše
generacija upravnika.
generacija upravnika.
00:37
You see, the first wave of managers
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Prvi talas upravnika
00:40
simply replaced their steam engines with electric motors,
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jednostavno je zamenio
parne mašine električnim motorima,
parne mašine električnim motorima,
00:43
but they didn't redesign the factories to take advantage
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ali nisu rekonstruisali fabrike
kako bi iskoristili prednosti
kako bi iskoristili prednosti
00:46
of electricity's flexibility.
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fleksibilnosti struje.
00:48
It fell to the next generation to invent new work processes,
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Na sledeću generaciju je palo
da smisli nove procese rada,
da smisli nove procese rada,
00:52
and then productivity soared,
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i produktivnost je onda eksplodirala,
00:55
often doubling or even tripling in those factories.
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u tim fabrikama, često dva ili tri puta više.
00:59
Electricity is an example of a general purpose technology,
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Struja je primer tehnologije za opštu upotrebu,
01:03
like the steam engine before it.
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poput parne mašine pre nje.
01:06
General purpose technologies drive most economic growth,
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Tehnologije za opštu upotrebu
pokreću najviše ekonomskog rasta
pokreću najviše ekonomskog rasta
01:09
because they unleash cascades of complementary innovations,
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jer oslobađaju slapove dodatnih inovacija
01:13
like lightbulbs and, yes, factory redesign.
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poput sijalica, i da,
rekonstrukcije fabrika.
rekonstrukcije fabrika.
01:16
Is there a general purpose technology of our era?
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Postoji li tenologija za opštu upotrebu
našeg doba?
našeg doba?
01:20
Sure. It's the computer.
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Naravno, to je kompjuter.
01:22
But technology alone is not enough.
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Ali sama tehnologija nije dovoljna.
01:25
Technology is not destiny.
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Tehnologija nije sudbina.
01:28
We shape our destiny,
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Mi oblikujemo svoju sudbinu,
01:29
and just as the earlier generations of managers
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i baš kao što su ranije generacije upravnika
01:32
needed to redesign their factories,
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morale da rekonstruišu svoje fabrike,
01:34
we're going to need to reinvent our organizations
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mi ćemo morati da ponovo izmislimo
svoje organizacije
svoje organizacije
01:36
and even our whole economic system.
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i čak i naš ceo sistem ekonomije.
01:39
We're not doing as well at that job as we should be.
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U tome nismo uspešni
kao što bi trebali da budemo.
kao što bi trebali da budemo.
01:42
As we'll see in a moment,
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Kao što ćemo uskoro videti,
01:44
productivity is actually doing all right,
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produktivnost je u stvari sasvim u redu,
01:46
but it has become decoupled from jobs,
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ali je postala odvojena od poslova
01:50
and the income of the typical worker is stagnating.
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i prihodi tipičnog radnika
tapkaju u mestu.
tapkaju u mestu.
01:55
These troubles are sometimes misdiagnosed
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Ovi problemi se ponekad pogrešno tumače
01:57
as the end of innovation,
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kao kraj inovacije,
02:01
but they are actually the growing pains
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ali su zapravo problemi odrastanja
02:03
of what Andrew McAfee and I call the new machine age.
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u onom što Endru Mekefi i ja
zovemo novim dobom mašina.
zovemo novim dobom mašina.
02:09
Let's look at some data.
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Pogledajmo neke podatke.
02:11
So here's GDP per person in America.
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Ovde je BDP po osobi u Americi.
02:13
There's some bumps along the way, but the big story
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Postoje male nepravilnosti, ali veliku sliku
02:16
is you could practically fit a ruler to it.
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možete praktično ravnati lenjirom.
02:19
This is a log scale, so what looks like steady growth
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Ovo je logaritmična skala, tako da je
ono što izgleda kao trajni rast
ono što izgleda kao trajni rast
02:22
is actually an acceleration in real terms.
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zapravo pravo ubrzanje.
02:25
And here's productivity.
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Ovde je produktivnost.
02:27
You can see a little bit of a slowdown there in the mid-'70s,
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Možete videti malo usporenje
sredinom '70-ih,
sredinom '70-ih,
02:30
but it matches up pretty well with the Second Industrial Revolution,
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ali prilično dobro se poklapa
sa Drugom industrijskom revolucijom
sa Drugom industrijskom revolucijom
02:34
when factories were learning how to electrify their operations.
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kada su fabrike učile kako da uvedu struju
u svoje operacije.
u svoje operacije.
02:36
After a lag, productivity accelerated again.
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Nakon zadržavanja,
produktivnost se opet ubrzala.
produktivnost se opet ubrzala.
02:41
So maybe "history doesn't repeat itself,
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Možda se "istorija ne ponavlja,
02:43
but sometimes it rhymes."
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ali ponekad se rimuje."
02:46
Today, productivity is at an all-time high,
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Produktivnost je danas na svom vrhuncu
02:49
and despite the Great Recession,
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i uprkos Velikoj recesiji
02:51
it grew faster in the 2000s than it did in the 1990s,
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2000-tih je rasla brže nego '90-ih,
02:55
the roaring 1990s, and that was faster than the '70s or '80s.
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bučnih '90-ih, i to je bilo brže
od '70-ih i '80-ih.
od '70-ih i '80-ih.
02:59
It's growing faster than it did during the Second Industrial Revolution.
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Raste brže nego u
Drugoj industrijskoj revoluciji.
Drugoj industrijskoj revoluciji.
03:03
And that's just the United States.
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A to je samo u SAD-u.
03:05
The global news is even better.
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Globalne vesti su još bolje.
03:08
Worldwide incomes have grown at a faster rate
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Svetski prihodi su rasli brže
03:10
in the past decade than ever in history.
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u prošloj deceniji nego ikada u istoriji.
03:13
If anything, all these numbers actually understate our progress,
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Ako ništa drugo, ove brojke
potcenjuju naš napredak
potcenjuju naš napredak
03:18
because the new machine age
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jer se u novom dobu mašina
03:20
is more about knowledge creation
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radi više o stvaranju znanja
03:21
than just physical production.
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nego samo o fizičkoj proizvodnji.
03:24
It's mind not matter, brain not brawn,
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To je mozak, ne materija,
pamet, a ne snaga
pamet, a ne snaga
03:27
ideas not things.
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ideje, a ne stvari.
03:29
That creates a problem for standard metrics,
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To stvara probleme za standardnu metriku,
03:31
because we're getting more and more stuff for free,
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jer sve više stvari dobijamo besplatno,
03:35
like Wikipedia, Google, Skype,
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poput Vikipedije, Gugla, Skajpa,
03:37
and if they post it on the web, even this TED Talk.
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i ako se stavi na internet,
čak i ovaj TED govor.
čak i ovaj TED govor.
03:41
Now getting stuff for free is a good thing, right?
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Besplatne stvari su dobra stvar, zar ne?
03:44
Sure, of course it is.
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Naravno da jesu.
03:46
But that's not how economists measure GDP.
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Ali ekonomisti ne mere BDP na taj način.
03:49
Zero price means zero weight in the GDP statistics.
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Nepostojeća cena predstavlja
nepostojeću težinu u statistici BDP-a.
nepostojeću težinu u statistici BDP-a.
03:55
According to the numbers, the music industry
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Ako je suditi po brojkama,
muzička industrija
muzička industrija
03:57
is half the size that it was 10 years ago,
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je sada za polovinu manja
nego pre 10 godina,
nego pre 10 godina,
04:00
but I'm listening to more and better music than ever.
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ali slušam više muzike
i bolju muziku nego ikad.
i bolju muziku nego ikad.
04:04
You know, I bet you are too.
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Mislim da je tako i kod vas.
04:06
In total, my research estimates
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U mom istraživanju se ukupno procenjuje
04:09
that the GDP numbers miss over 300 billion dollars per year
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da BDP cifre godišnje propuste
preko 300 milijardi dolara
preko 300 milijardi dolara
04:13
in free goods and services on the Internet.
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u besplatnoj robi i uslugama na internetu.
04:17
Now let's look to the future.
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Hajde da pogledamo u budućnost.
04:19
There are some super smart people
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Postoje neki veoma pametni ljudi
04:21
who are arguing that we've reached the end of growth,
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koji kažu da smo došli do kraja rasta,
04:26
but to understand the future of growth,
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ali da bismo razumeli budućnost rasta
04:29
we need to make predictions
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moramo napraviti predviđanja
04:32
about the underlying drivers of growth.
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o osnovnim pokretačima rasta.
04:35
I'm optimistic, because the new machine age
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Optimističan sam, zato što je
novo doba mašina
novo doba mašina
04:39
is digital, exponential and combinatorial.
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digitalno, eksponencijalno i kombinatorično.
04:44
When goods are digital, they can be replicated
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Kada je roba digitalna, može se kopirati
04:47
with perfect quality at nearly zero cost,
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u savršenom kvalitetu
bez skoro ikakvih troškova
bez skoro ikakvih troškova
04:51
and they can be delivered almost instantaneously.
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i može se isporučiti skoro trenutno.
04:55
Welcome to the economics of abundance.
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Dobrodošli u ekonomiju viška.
04:58
But there's a subtler benefit to the digitization of the world.
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Ali postoji suptilnija prednost digitalizacije sveta.
05:02
Measurement is the lifeblood of science and progress.
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Mera je žila kucavica nauke i napretka.
05:06
In the age of big data,
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U dobu velikih podataka
05:08
we can measure the world in ways we never could before.
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možemo premeriti svet na načine
na koje nikada pre nismo mogli.
na koje nikada pre nismo mogli.
05:13
Secondly, the new machine age is exponential.
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Drugo, novo doba mašina je eksponencijalno.
05:17
Computers get better faster than anything else ever.
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Kompjuteri se poboljšavaju
brže od ičeg drugog, ikada.
brže od ičeg drugog, ikada.
05:23
A child's Playstation today is more powerful
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Plejstejšn nekog deteta danas
05:26
than a military supercomputer from 1996.
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je moćniji od vojnog superkompjutera iz 1996.
05:30
But our brains are wired for a linear world.
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Ali naši mozgovi su podešeni za linearni svet.
05:33
As a result, exponential trends take us by surprise.
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Posledica toga je da nas iznenađuju
eksponencijalni trendovi.
eksponencijalni trendovi.
05:37
I used to teach my students that there are some things,
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Svoje učenike sam učio
da postoje neke stvari
da postoje neke stvari
05:40
you know, computers just aren't good at,
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u kojima, znate, kompjuteri nisu baš dobri,
05:42
like driving a car through traffic.
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recimo vožnja automobila kroz saobraćaj.
05:44
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:46
That's right, here's Andy and me grinning like madmen
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Tu smo Endi i ja kako se smejemo kao ludi
05:50
because we just rode down Route 101
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jer smo upravo prošli putem 101
05:52
in, yes, a driverless car.
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u kolima bez vozača.
05:56
Thirdly, the new machine age is combinatorial.
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Treće, novo doba mašina je kombinatorično.
05:58
The stagnationist view is that ideas get used up,
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Iz perspektive stagnacionista,
ideje se potroše,
ideje se potroše,
06:02
like low-hanging fruit,
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poput voća na niskim granama,
06:04
but the reality is that each innovation
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ali u stvarnosti svaka inovacija
06:07
creates building blocks for even more innovations.
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stvara gradivni materijal za još više inovacija.
06:11
Here's an example. In just a matter of a few weeks,
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Evo primera. Za samo nekoliko nedelja
06:14
an undergraduate student of mine
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jedan moj student osnovnih studija
06:16
built an app that ultimately reached 1.3 million users.
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napravio je aplikaciju
koju je preuzelo 1,3 miliona korisnika.
koju je preuzelo 1,3 miliona korisnika.
06:20
He was able to do that so easily
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To je mogao da uradi s tom lakoćom
06:22
because he built it on top of Facebook,
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jer je to uradio preko Fejsbuka,
06:24
and Facebook was built on top of the web,
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a Fejsbuk je napravljen preko mreže,
06:26
and that was built on top of the Internet,
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a to je napravljeno preko interneta,
06:27
and so on and so forth.
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i tako dalje.
06:30
Now individually, digital, exponential and combinatorial
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Pojedinačno, digitalno,
eksponencijalno i kombinatorično
eksponencijalno i kombinatorično
06:35
would each be game-changers.
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bi svaki za sebe menjali igru.
06:37
Put them together, and we're seeing a wave
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Ali stavite ih zajedno i vidimo talas
06:39
of astonishing breakthroughs,
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neverovatnih otkrića
06:41
like robots that do factory work or run as fast as a cheetah
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poput robota koji rade u fabrikama
ili trče brzo kao gepardi
ili trče brzo kao gepardi
06:44
or leap tall buildings in a single bound.
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i preskaču velike zgrade iz jednog skoka.
06:46
You know, robots are even revolutionizing
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Roboti čak prave revoluciju
06:49
cat transportation.
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i u transportu mačaka.
06:50
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:53
But perhaps the most important invention,
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Ali možda najbitniji izum,
06:55
the most important invention is machine learning.
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je mašinsko učenje.
07:00
Consider one project: IBM's Watson.
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Pogledajmo jedan projekat:
IBM-ov Votson.
IBM-ov Votson.
07:04
These little dots here,
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Ove tačkice ovde
07:05
those are all the champions on the quiz show "Jeopardy."
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su pobednici televizijskog kviza "Opasnost".
07:10
At first, Watson wasn't very good,
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Votson isprva nije bio veoma dobar,
07:13
but it improved at a rate faster than any human could,
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ali se poboljšao
brže nego što bi mogao ijedan čovek
brže nego što bi mogao ijedan čovek
07:18
and shortly after Dave Ferrucci showed this chart
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i ubrzo nakon što je Dejv Feruči
pokazao ovu tabelu
pokazao ovu tabelu
07:21
to my class at MIT,
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mom odeljenju na MIT univerzitetu,
07:23
Watson beat the world "Jeopardy" champion.
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Votson je pobedio
svetskog šampiona u "Opasnosti".
svetskog šampiona u "Opasnosti".
07:26
At age seven, Watson is still kind of in its childhood.
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U svojoj sedmoj godini,
Votson je još uvek u detinjstvu.
Votson je još uvek u detinjstvu.
07:30
Recently, its teachers let it surf the Internet unsupervised.
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Njegovi učitelji su ga nedavno pustili
da pretražuje internet bez nadzora.
da pretražuje internet bez nadzora.
07:36
The next day, it started answering questions with profanities.
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Sledećeg dana počeo je
da na pitanja odgovara vulgarnim izrazima.
da na pitanja odgovara vulgarnim izrazima.
07:42
Damn. (Laughter)
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Prokletstvo.
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
07:44
But you know, Watson is growing up fast.
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Znate, Votson brzo raste.
07:46
It's being tested for jobs in call centers, and it's getting them.
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Testiraju ga za poslove u telefonskim centralama,
i on dobija te poslove.
i on dobija te poslove.
07:50
It's applying for legal, banking and medical jobs,
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Prijavljuje se za poslove
u pravu, bankarstvu i medicini,
u pravu, bankarstvu i medicini,
07:54
and getting some of them.
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i dobija neke od njih.
07:56
Isn't it ironic that at the very moment
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Zar nije ironično što u istom trenutku
07:58
we are building intelligent machines,
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kada pravimo inteligentne mašine,
08:00
perhaps the most important invention in human history,
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možda najbitniji izum u istoriji ljudi,
08:04
some people are arguing that innovation is stagnating?
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neki ljudi još uvek tvrde
da inovacija tapka u mestu?
da inovacija tapka u mestu?
08:08
Like the first two industrial revolutions,
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Poput prve dve industrijske revolucije,
08:10
the full implications of the new machine age
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punim implikacijama novog doba mašina
08:13
are going to take at least a century to fully play out,
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će trebati makar jedan vek
da se potpuno otkriju
da se potpuno otkriju
08:16
but they are staggering.
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ali su zapanjujuće.
08:19
So does that mean we have nothing to worry about?
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Da li to znači da ne moramo
da brinemo ni o čemu?
da brinemo ni o čemu?
08:22
No. Technology is not destiny.
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Ne. Tehnologija nije sudbina.
08:26
Productivity is at an all time high,
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Produktivnost je na svom vrhuncu
08:28
but fewer people now have jobs.
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ali manje ljudi sada ima posao.
08:31
We have created more wealth in the past decade than ever,
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U prošloj deceniji smo stvorili
više bogatstva nego ikad,
više bogatstva nego ikad,
08:35
but for a majority of Americans, their income has fallen.
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ali za većinu Amerikanaca prihodi su opali.
08:38
This is the great decoupling
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Ovo je veliko razdvajanje
08:41
of productivity from employment,
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produktivnosti od zaposlenosti,
08:44
of wealth from work.
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bogatstva od rada.
08:47
You know, it's not surprising that millions of people
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Nije iznenađujuće to što su milioni ljudi
08:49
have become disillusioned by the great decoupling,
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u iluziji zbog velikog razdvajanja,
08:52
but like too many others,
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ali poput mnogih drugih,
08:54
they misunderstand its basic causes.
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pogrešno su razumeli osnovne uzroke ovoga.
08:57
Technology is racing ahead,
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Tehnologija grabi napred,
09:00
but it's leaving more and more people behind.
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a sve više ljudi ostaje iza nje.
09:03
Today, we can take a routine job,
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Danas možemo uzeti rutinski posao
09:07
codify it in a set of machine-readable instructions,
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kodirati ga u komplet uputstava
koje mašina može da čita
koje mašina može da čita
09:10
and then replicate it a million times.
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i onda ga ponoviti milion puta.
09:12
You know, I recently overheard a conversation
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Skoro sam načuo razgovor
09:15
that epitomizes these new economics.
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koji je savršen primer ove nove ekonomije.
09:17
This guy says, "Nah, I don't use H&R Block anymore.
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Neki tip kaže:
"Ne, više ne koristim H&R Block.
"Ne, više ne koristim H&R Block.
09:21
TurboTax does everything that my tax preparer did,
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TurboTax radi sve što je radila
i moja osoba za porez,
i moja osoba za porez,
09:23
but it's faster, cheaper and more accurate."
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ali brže je, jeftinije i preciznije."
09:28
How can a skilled worker
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Kako obučen radnik
09:30
compete with a $39 piece of software?
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može da se takmiči
sa softverom od 39 dolara?
sa softverom od 39 dolara?
09:33
She can't.
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Ne može.
09:35
Today, millions of Americans do have faster,
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Danas milioni Amerikanaca imaju bržu,
09:37
cheaper, more accurate tax preparation,
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jeftiniju i precizniju pripremu poreza,
09:40
and the founders of Intuit
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i osnivači Intuita
09:41
have done very well for themselves.
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su se veoma dobro obezbedili.
09:44
But 17 percent of tax preparers no longer have jobs.
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Ali 17% poreskih radnika više nema posao.
09:48
That is a microcosm of what's happening,
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To je mikrokosmos onoga što se dešava,
09:50
not just in software and services, but in media and music,
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ne samo sa softverom i uslugama,
nego i u medijima i muzici,
nego i u medijima i muzici,
09:55
in finance and manufacturing, in retailing and trade --
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u finansijama i proizvodnji,
u maloprodaji i trgovini -
u maloprodaji i trgovini -
09:59
in short, in every industry.
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ukratko, u svakoj grani privrede.
10:02
People are racing against the machine,
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Ljudi se trkaju protiv mašina,
10:05
and many of them are losing that race.
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i puno njih će tu trku izgubiti.
10:09
What can we do to create shared prosperity?
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Šta možemo uraditi
da stvorimo zajednički prosperitet?
da stvorimo zajednički prosperitet?
10:12
The answer is not to try to slow down technology.
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Odgovor je da ne smemo pokušavati
da usporimo tehnologiju.
da usporimo tehnologiju.
10:15
Instead of racing against the machine,
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Umesto trke protiv mašine,
10:18
we need to learn to race with the machine.
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treba da naučimo da trčimo
zajedno s mašinom.
zajedno s mašinom.
10:22
That is our grand challenge.
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To je naš veliki izazov.
10:25
The new machine age
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Novo doba mašina
10:27
can be dated to a day 15 years ago
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se može obeležiti jednog dana
pre 15 godina,
pre 15 godina,
10:30
when Garry Kasparov, the world chess champion,
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kada je Gari Kasparov,
svetski šampion u šahu
svetski šampion u šahu
10:33
played Deep Blue, a supercomputer.
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igrao protiv superkompjutera Deep Blue.
10:37
The machine won that day,
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Mašina je pobedila tog dana,
10:39
and today, a chess program running on a cell phone
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a danas program za šah na našem telefonu
10:42
can beat a human grandmaster.
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može da pobedi ljudskog velemajstora.
10:44
It got so bad that, when he was asked
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Došlo je do toga da kada su pitali
10:48
what strategy he would use against a computer,
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Jana Donera, holandskog velemajstora
10:50
Jan Donner, the Dutch grandmaster, replied,
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koju strategiju bi koristio protiv kompjutera,
odgovorio je:
odgovorio je:
10:54
"I'd bring a hammer."
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"Poneo bih čekić."
10:56
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
11:00
But today a computer is no longer the world chess champion.
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Ali kompjuter danas više nije
svetski velemajstor u šahu.
svetski velemajstor u šahu.
11:04
Neither is a human,
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Nije ni čovek,
11:07
because Kasparov organized a freestyle tournament
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jer je Kasparov organizovao
turnir u slobodnom stilu
turnir u slobodnom stilu
11:10
where teams of humans and computers
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gde su ekipe ljudi i kompjutera
11:12
could work together,
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radile zajedno
11:14
and the winning team had no grandmaster,
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i pobednički tim nije imao velemajstora,
11:17
and it had no supercomputer.
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nije imao superkompjuter.
11:20
What they had was better teamwork,
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Imali su bolji timski rad
11:24
and they showed that a team of humans and computers,
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i pokazali su da ekipa ljudi i kompjutera
11:29
working together, could beat any computer
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koji rade zajedno može da pobedi
bilo koji kompjuter
bilo koji kompjuter
11:32
or any human working alone.
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ili bilo kog čoveka koji rade sami.
11:36
Racing with the machine
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Trka zajedno s mašinom nadjačava
11:37
beats racing against the machine.
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trku protiv mašine.
11:40
Technology is not destiny.
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Tehnologija nije naša sudbina.
11:42
We shape our destiny.
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Mi oblikujemo svoju sudbinu.
11:44
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
11:45
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Erik Brynjolfsson - Innovation researcherErik Brynjolfsson examines the effects of information technologies on business strategy, productivity and employment.
Why you should listen
The director of the MIT Center for Digital Business and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, Erik Brynjolfsson asks how IT affects organizations, markets and the economy. His recent work studies data-driven decision-making, management practices that drive productivity, the pricing implications of Internet commerce and the role of intangible assets.
Brynjolfsson was among the first researchers to measure the productivity contributions of information and community technology (ICT) and the complementary role of organizational capital and other intangibles. His research also provided the first quantification of the value of online product variety, often known as the “Long Tail,” and developed pricing and bundling models for information goods.
His books include Wired for Innovation: How IT Is Reshaping the Economy and Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy (with Andrew McAfee); and the recent article "Big Data: The Management Revolution" (with Andrew McAfee).
Erik Brynjolfsson | Speaker | TED.com