TEDxUCL
Hannah Fry: Is life really that complex?
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Can an algorithm forecast the site of the next riot? In this accessible talk, mathematician Hannah Fry shows how complex social behavior can be analyzed and perhaps predicted through analogies to natural phenomena, like the patterns of a leopard's spots or the distribution of predators and prey in the wild.
Hannah Fry - Complexity theorist
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future. Full bio
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:10
Thanks very much.
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非常感谢。
我是汉娜福莱，一个狠角色。
00:11
I am Hannah Fry, the badass.
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今天，我想问大家一个问题：
00:13
And today I'm asking the question:
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生活真的很复杂吗？
00:14
Is life really that complex?
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我想用9分钟的时间
给你们一个答案，
给你们一个答案，
00:16
Now, I've only got nine minutes
to try and provide you with an answer,
to try and provide you with an answer,
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我把答案分成了两部分。
00:19
so what I've done
is split this neatly into two parts:
is split this neatly into two parts:
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答案一：生活真的复杂，
00:22
part one: yes;
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00:25
and later on, part two: no.
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答案二：生活并不复杂。
00:27
Or, to be more accurate: no?
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或者更准确地说：生活没那么复杂吧？
00:30
(Laughter)
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（大笑）
首先，让我试着
定义一下什么是“复杂”。
定义一下什么是“复杂”。
00:31
So first of all, let me try and define
what I mean by "complex."
what I mean by "complex."
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我可以给你很多正式的定义，
00:34
Now, I could give you
a host of formal definitions,
a host of formal definitions,
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但是用最简单的说法，
00:36
but in the simplest terms,
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复杂问题就是爱因斯坦
和他的同行都无法解决的。
和他的同行都无法解决的。
00:38
any problem in complexity is something
that Einstein and his peers can't do.
that Einstein and his peers can't do.
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那么，让我们来想象——
希望这个遥控器好用…好了。
希望这个遥控器好用…好了。
00:43
So, let's imagine --
if the clicker works ... there we go.
if the clicker works ... there we go.
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00:46
Einstein is playing a game of snooker.
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爱因斯坦正在玩斯诺克游戏。
00:48
He's a clever chap, so he knows
that when he hits the cue ball,
that when he hits the cue ball,
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他是个聪明人，
所以他知道当他击球时，
所以他知道当他击球时，
00:51
he could write you an equation
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他可以写出一个公式，
00:53
and tell you exactly where the red ball
is going to hit the sides,
is going to hit the sides,
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精确地计算出红球将要击中的位置，
红球的速度以及它将在何处停止。
00:56
how fast it's going
and where it's going to end up.
and where it's going to end up.
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00:59
Now, if you scale these snooker balls
up to the size of the solar system,
up to the size of the solar system,
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如果你将这些斯诺克球
类推到太阳系。
类推到太阳系。
01:02
Einstein can still help you.
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爱因斯坦的理论依然成立。
01:04
Sure, the physics changes,
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当然，物理上发生了改变，
但是如果你想知道
地球绕太阳的轨迹，
地球绕太阳的轨迹，
01:05
but if you wanted to know about
the path of the Earth around the Sun,
the path of the Earth around the Sun,
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爱因斯坦可以写一个公式
01:09
Einstein could write you an equation
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告诉你两者在任何时间的位置。
01:10
telling you where both objects are
at any point in time.
at any point in time.
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01:13
Now, with a surprising
increase in difficulty,
increase in difficulty,
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现在，加大难度。
01:15
Einstein could include
the Moon in his calculations.
the Moon in his calculations.
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爱因斯坦可以把
月球的引力考虑在内。
月球的引力考虑在内。
01:18
But as you add more and more planets,
Mars and Jupiter, say,
Mars and Jupiter, say,
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但是随着你增加星球的数量，
比如火星和木星，
比如火星和木星，
01:21
the problem gets too tough for Einstein
to solve with a pen and paper.
to solve with a pen and paper.
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这个问题对爱因斯坦来说，
只用笔纸来解决就太难了。
只用笔纸来解决就太难了。
01:25
Now, strangely, if instead of having
a handful of planets,
a handful of planets,
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奇怪的是，跟处理少量
棘手的行星相比，
棘手的行星相比，
01:27
you had millions of objects
or even billions,
or even billions,
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当你有百万个甚至十数亿个星体时，
01:30
the problem actually becomes much simpler,
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问题实际上是变得更简单了，
01:32
and Einstein is back in the game.
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于是爱因斯坦的理论依然适用。
01:34
Let me explain what I mean by this,
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让我来解释我想要表达什么，
01:36
by scaling these objects back down
to a molecular level.
to a molecular level.
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把这些对象缩小到分子水平。
01:40
If you wanted to trace the erratic path
of an individual air molecule,
of an individual air molecule,
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如果你想追踪单个
空气分子的不稳定轨迹，
空气分子的不稳定轨迹，
01:43
you'd have absolutely no hope.
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这是绝对没戏的。
01:45
But when you have millions
of air molecules all together,
of air molecules all together,
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但当你有百万个
空气分子的集合时，
空气分子的集合时，
01:48
they start to act in a way
which is quantifiable, predictable
which is quantifiable, predictable
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它们开始以能够量化的、可预测的，
01:52
and well-behaved.
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以及规则的方式来行动。
01:53
And thank goodness air is well-behaved,
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幸好空气的运动十分规律，
如若不然，那么
飞机就要飞进外太空了。
飞机就要飞进外太空了。
01:55
because if it wasn't,
planes would fall out of the sky.
planes would fall out of the sky.
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01:58
Now, on an even bigger scale,
across the whole of the world,
across the whole of the world,
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现在，进一步扩大
思考的范畴，全世界，
思考的范畴，全世界，
02:01
the idea is exactly the same
with all of these air molecules.
with all of these air molecules.
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对所有空气分子来说
理论是完全一致的。
理论是完全一致的。
02:04
It's true that you can't take
an individual rain droplet
an individual rain droplet
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的确，你不能拿一个单独的雨滴
02:07
and say where it's come from
or where it's going to end up.
or where it's going to end up.
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说它从哪里来或将到哪里去。
但你可以很确定的说
02:10
But you can say with pretty good certainty
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明天是否多云。
02:12
whether it will be cloudy tomorrow.
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02:14
So that's it.
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所以，就是这样。
在爱因斯坦的年代，
这就是科学能达到的高度。
这就是科学能达到的高度。
02:15
In Einstein's time,
this is how far science had got.
this is how far science had got.
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02:18
We could do really small problems
with a few objects
with a few objects
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我们可以通过
少量对象和简单的互动
少量对象和简单的互动
02:21
with simple interactions,
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来解决小问题，
02:23
or we could do huge problems
with millions of objects
with millions of objects
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或者我们可以通过
数以百万计的对象，简单的互动
数以百万计的对象，简单的互动
02:25
and simple interactions.
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去解决大问题。
02:27
But what about everything in the middle?
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但如果所有的事物都不大不小呢？
02:29
Well, just seven years
before Einstein's death,
before Einstein's death,
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就在爱因斯坦去世的七年后，
02:31
an American scientist called
Warren Weaver made exactly this point.
Warren Weaver made exactly this point.
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美国科学家沃伦 · 韦弗
（Warren Weaver）提出了这个观点。
（Warren Weaver）提出了这个观点。
02:35
He said that scientific methodology
has gone from one extreme to another,
has gone from one extreme to another,
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他说科学方法论
从一个极端到另一个极端，
从一个极端到另一个极端，
02:39
leaving out an untouched
great middle region.
great middle region.
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留下了巨大的尚未触碰的中间地带。
02:42
Now, this middle region
is where complexity science lies,
is where complexity science lies,
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这一中间地带就是
复杂科学所在的位置，
复杂科学所在的位置，
02:44
and this is what I mean by complex.
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这就是我说的复杂的意思。
02:47
Now, unfortunately, almost
every single problem you can think of
every single problem you can think of
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不幸的是，几乎你能想到的
所有跟人类行为相关的
所有跟人类行为相关的
02:50
to do with human behavior
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简单问题，
02:51
lies in this middle region.
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都在位于这个中间地带。
02:54
Einstein's got absolutely no idea
how to model the movement of a crowd.
how to model the movement of a crowd.
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爱因斯坦绝对不会知道
如何模拟人群的移动。
如何模拟人群的移动。
02:58
There are too many people
to look at them all individually
to look at them all individually
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想要对个体进行单独观察，
人数未免太多了
人数未免太多了
想把人视为气体分子，
这个数字又太少了。
这个数字又太少了。
03:01
and too few to treat them as a gas.
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03:03
Similarly, people are prone
to annoying things like decisions
to annoying things like decisions
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同样的，人们很容易
厌烦像做决定这样的事情，
厌烦像做决定这样的事情，
03:06
and not wanting to walk into each other,
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并且对了解彼此没什么兴趣，
这也使得问题变得更加复杂了。
03:08
which makes the problem
all the more complicated.
all the more complicated.
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03:11
Einstein also couldn't tell you
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爱因斯坦也没办法告诉你，
03:12
when the next stock market crash
is going to be.
is going to be.
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下一次股市崩溃将是什么时候。
03:15
Einstein couldn't tell you
how to improve unemployment.
how to improve unemployment.
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爱因斯坦无法告诉你
如何改善失业率，
如何改善失业率，
03:18
Einstein can't even tell you
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他甚至无法告诉你
03:19
whether the next iPhone
is going to be a hit or a flop.
is going to be a hit or a flop.
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下一代苹果手机
是一场失利还是翻牌。
是一场失利还是翻牌。
03:22
So to conclude part one:
we're completely screwed.
we're completely screwed.
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所以，得到结论一：
我们完全搞砸了。
我们完全搞砸了。
03:25
We've got no tools to deal with this,
and life is way too complex.
and life is way too complex.
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我们没有解决的办法，
生活太复杂了。
生活太复杂了。
03:30
But maybe there's hope,
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但或许还是有希望的，
03:31
because in the last few years,
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因为在过去的几年里，
03:33
we've begun to see the beginnings
of a new area of science
of a new area of science
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我们开始看到一个
使用数学来模拟社会体系的
使用数学来模拟社会体系的
03:37
using mathematics
to model our social systems.
to model our social systems.
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新的科学领域的兴起。
03:40
And I'm not just talking here
about statistics and computer simulations.
about statistics and computer simulations.
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我不只是在谈论
统计学和计算机模拟。
统计学和计算机模拟。
03:43
I'm talking about writing down
equations about our society
equations about our society
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我要说的是写出
关于我们社会的公式，
关于我们社会的公式，
03:46
that will help us understand
what's going on
what's going on
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帮助我们理解正在发生的事情，
03:48
in the same way as with the snooker balls
or the weather prediction.
or the weather prediction.
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就像斯诺克球或者天气预报那样。
03:52
And this has come about
because people have begun to realize
because people have begun to realize
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这个学科的出现
是因为人们已经开始意识到，
是因为人们已经开始意识到，
我们可以将类比方法应用于
03:55
that we can use and exploit analogies
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03:57
between our human systems
and those of the physical world around us.
and those of the physical world around us.
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人类系统和周边的物理环境。
04:01
Now, to give you an example:
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现在，给你一个例子：
欧洲移民这一
难以置信的复杂问题。
难以置信的复杂问题。
04:03
the incredibly complex problem
of migration across Europe.
of migration across Europe.
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04:06
Actually, as it turns out, when you view
all of the people together,
all of the people together,
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事实证明，当你把
所有人放在一起观察时，
所有人放在一起观察时，
04:10
collectively, they behave as though
they're following the laws of gravity.
they're following the laws of gravity.
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总的来说，他们表现得
就像在遵循万有引力。
就像在遵循万有引力。
04:14
But instead of planets
being attracted to one another,
being attracted to one another,
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但不像行星彼此互相吸引，
04:17
it's people who are attracted
to areas with better job opportunities,
to areas with better job opportunities,
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人们被吸引到的地区
有更好的工作机会，
有更好的工作机会，
04:21
higher pay, better quality of life
and lower unemployment.
and lower unemployment.
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更高的收入，更高质量的生活
以及更低的失业率。
以及更低的失业率。
04:25
And in the same way as people
are more likely to go for opportunities
are more likely to go for opportunities
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而且同样的，人们
更有可能选择的机会是
更有可能选择的机会是
04:29
close to where they live already --
London to Kent, for example,
London to Kent, for example,
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离他们所在的位置更近的地方
——例如，从伦敦去肯特，
——例如，从伦敦去肯特，
04:32
as opposed to London to Melbourne --
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要好过伦敦去墨尔本——
04:34
the gravitational effect of planets
far away is felt much less.
far away is felt much less.
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远处行星的万有引力效力要小得多。
04:38
So, to give you another example:
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那么，给大家另外一个例子：
04:41
in 2008, a group in UCLA
were looking into the patterns
were looking into the patterns
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2008年，加州大学洛杉矶分校的
一个小组正在研究
一个小组正在研究
04:45
of burglary hot spots in the city.
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城市中盗窃事件频发的地点分布。
04:48
Now, one thing about burglaries
is this idea of repeat victimization.
is this idea of repeat victimization.
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关于盗窃的一个方面
就是重复受害的概念。
就是重复受害的概念。
04:53
So if you have a group of burglars
who manage to successfully rob an area,
who manage to successfully rob an area,
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如果有一个团伙在某个地区
成功地进行了一场盗窃，
成功地进行了一场盗窃，
04:57
they'll tend to return to that area
and carry on burgling it.
and carry on burgling it.
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那么他们会更倾向于
返回这个区域继续盗窃。
返回这个区域继续盗窃。
05:01
So they learn the layout of the houses,
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他们摸清了房子的布局，
05:04
the escape routes
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逃跑路线，
05:06
and the local security measures
that are in place.
that are in place.
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以及当地的安保状况。
05:09
And this will continue to happen
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而且这将持续发生，直到
05:11
until local residents and police
ramp up the security,
ramp up the security,
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当地居民和警察加强安保措施，
05:14
at which point, the burglars
will move off elsewhere.
will move off elsewhere.
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盗窃者们才会转移到其他地方。
05:17
And it's that balance
between burglars and security
between burglars and security
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这就是盗窃者和安保之间的平衡，
05:19
which creates these dynamic
hot spots of the city.
hot spots of the city.
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这创造了城市的这类动态热点。
事实证明，这跟豹子形成豹斑
05:22
As it turns out,
this is exactly the same process
this is exactly the same process
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05:26
as how a leopard gets its spots,
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是同样的过程，
05:28
except in the leopard example,
it's not burglars and security,
it's not burglars and security,
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只不过在豹子的例子中
没有盗窃犯和安保，
没有盗窃犯和安保，
是化学过程创造了这些图案，
05:31
it's the chemical process
that creates these patterns
that creates these patterns
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05:35
and something called "morphogenesis."
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该过程被称为“形态发生”。
05:37
We actually know an awful lot
about the morphogenesis of leopard spots.
about the morphogenesis of leopard spots.
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事实上我们对豹斑的形态
发生已经有了深入的了解。
发生已经有了深入的了解。
05:41
Maybe we can use this to try and spot
some of the warning signs with burglaries
some of the warning signs with burglaries
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或许我们可以使用这个来试着
寻找一些关于盗窃的警告信号，
寻找一些关于盗窃的警告信号，
05:46
and perhaps, also to create
better crime strategies to prevent crime.
better crime strategies to prevent crime.
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而且或许还能够创造更好的
策略来阻止犯罪。
策略来阻止犯罪。
05:50
There's a group here at UCL
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在伦敦大学有一个团队，
05:51
who are working with
the West Midlands police right now
the West Midlands police right now
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现在正在与西米德兰郡警方合作
05:54
on this very question.
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来解决这个问题。
05:56
I could give you
plenty of examples like this,
plenty of examples like this,
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我还可以举出许多类似的例子，
05:59
but I wanted to leave you
with one from my own research
with one from my own research
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但是我想介绍一下我自己研究
伦敦暴动的例子。
06:02
on the London riots.
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06:03
Now, you probably
don't need me to tell you
don't need me to tell you
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你们可能已经听说了
去年夏天的事件，
06:05
about the events of last summer,
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伦敦和英国见证了过去的20年中
06:06
where London and the UK saw
the worst sustained period
the worst sustained period
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06:09
of violent looting and arson
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最糟糕的持续性
06:11
for over twenty years.
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暴力抢劫和纵火事件。
06:13
It's understandable that, as a society,
we want to try and understand
we want to try and understand
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这是可以理解的，作为一个社会，
我们总想尝试去理解
我们总想尝试去理解
到底是什么导致了这些暴动，
06:16
exactly what caused these riots,
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06:18
but also, perhaps, to equip our police
with better strategies
with better strategies
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而且同时，或许应该用更好的
战略来武装我们的警察，
战略来武装我们的警察，
06:22
to lead to a swifter
resolution in the future.
resolution in the future.
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拿出更好的解决方案来。
06:25
Now, I don't want to upset
the sociologists here,
the sociologists here,
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我不想在这里打击社会学家，
06:28
so I absolutely cannot talk about
the individual motivations for a rioter,
the individual motivations for a rioter,
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所以我绝对不能
讲出暴动者的个人动机，
讲出暴动者的个人动机，
06:33
but when you look at
the rioters all together,
the rioters all together,
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但当你把暴动者们放在一起看时，
06:35
mathematically, you can separate it
into a three-stage process
into a three-stage process
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从数学的角度，
你可以把它分为三个阶段，
你可以把它分为三个阶段，
06:38
and draw analogies accordingly.
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并相应地画出类比示意图。
06:40
So, step one: let's say
you've got a group of friends.
you've got a group of friends.
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第一步：假如你有了一群朋友。
06:43
None of them are involved in the riots,
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他们中没有一个人参与到暴动，
06:45
but one of them walks past
a Foot Locker which is being raided,
a Foot Locker which is being raided,
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但其中一位路过一家正在
被洗劫的Foot Locker鞋店，
被洗劫的Foot Locker鞋店，
并走进去给自己
包了一双新训练鞋。
包了一双新训练鞋。
06:49
and goes in and bags himself
a new pair of trainers.
a new pair of trainers.
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06:51
He texts one of his friends and says,
"Come on down to the riots."
"Come on down to the riots."
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他给其中一个朋友发信息说，
“快来加入暴动吧。”
“快来加入暴动吧。”
06:56
So his friend joins him,
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于是他的朋友加入了他，
06:57
and then the two of them text
more of their friends, who join them,
more of their friends, who join them,
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然后他们两个人会
发信息告诉更多的朋友，
发信息告诉更多的朋友，
07:00
and text more of their friends
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加入他们的朋友
也会发信息给更多的人，
也会发信息给更多的人，
07:02
and more and more, and so it continues.
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人数像滚雪球一样越来越多。
07:04
This process is identical to the way
that a virus spreads through a population.
that a virus spreads through a population.
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这个过程和病毒
在人群中传播的过程是一样的。
在人群中传播的过程是一样的。
07:09
If you think about the bird flu epidemic
of a couple of years ago,
of a couple of years ago,
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如果你还记得
几年前的禽流感疫情，
几年前的禽流感疫情，
07:12
the more people that were infected,
the more people that got infected,
the more people that got infected,
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越多的人被感染，
就会有更多的人受到感染，
就会有更多的人受到感染，
07:15
and the faster the virus spread
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在当局设法采取行动前，
07:17
before the authorities managed
to get a handle on events.
to get a handle on events.
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病毒传染得就更快。
07:20
And it's exactly the same process here.
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暴动也经历了相同的过程。
07:23
So let's say you've got a rioter,
he's decided he's going to riot.
he's decided he's going to riot.
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那么让我们假设有一个暴动者，
他已经决定要去参与暴动。
他已经决定要去参与暴动。
07:26
The next thing he has to do
is pick a riot site.
is pick a riot site.
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下一件他必须做的事
就是挑选暴动地点。
就是挑选暴动地点。
07:30
Now, what you should know
about rioters is that, um ...
about rioters is that, um ...
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关于暴动者你需要知道的是——
07:33
Oops, clicker's gone. There we go.
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看下这张图。
07:35
What you should know about rioters is,
they're not prepared to travel
they're not prepared to travel
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关于暴动者你需要知道的是，
他们通常并不打算去
他们通常并不打算去
离他们住的远的地方，
07:38
that far from where they live,
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07:40
unless it's a really juicy riot site.
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除非那真的是一个
非常好的暴动地点。
非常好的暴动地点。
07:42
(Laughter)
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（大笑）
07:43
So you can see that here from this graph,
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所以你可以从这张图中看出，
07:45
with an awful lot of rioters
having traveled less than a kilometer
having traveled less than a kilometer
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绝大多数暴动者参与暴动的地点
07:48
to the site that they went to.
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离家都不到1公里。
07:50
Now, this pattern is seen
in consumer models of retail spending,
in consumer models of retail spending,
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这个模式也可以在零售消费的
消费者模型中看到。
消费者模型中看到。
07:55
i.e., where we choose to go shopping.
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比如，我们选择在哪里购物。
07:57
So, of course, people like
to go to local shops,
to go to local shops,
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当然，人们喜欢去本地商店，
08:00
but you'd be prepared
to go a little bit further
to go a little bit further
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但你也并不介意
去稍远一点的地方，
去稍远一点的地方，
08:03
if it was a really good retail site.
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如果那真的是一个
很好的购物地点。
很好的购物地点。
08:05
And this analogy, actually, was already
picked up by some of the papers,
picked up by some of the papers,
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这个类比事实上
已经被一些文章引用过了，
已经被一些文章引用过了，
一些小报记者
把它称之为“暴力购物”，
把它称之为“暴力购物”，
08:09
with some tabloid press calling the events
"Shopping with violence,"
"Shopping with violence,"
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这可能或多或少总结了
我们的研究成果。
我们的研究成果。
08:12
which probably sums it up
in terms of our research.
in terms of our research.
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08:15
Oh! -- we're going backwards.
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噢，不小心回到刚才的那页了。
08:19
OK, step three.
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好了，第三步。
最后，暴动者到达目的地了，
08:21
Finally, the rioter is at his site,
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08:23
and he wants to avoid
getting caught by the police.
getting caught by the police.
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他想要避免被警察逮捕。
08:27
The rioters will avoid
the police at all times,
the police at all times,
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暴动者会随时躲着警察，
08:30
but there is some safety in numbers.
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但有些地方还是比较安全的。
08:32
And on the flip side, the police,
with their limited resources,
with their limited resources,
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反过来，警察会利用
他们有限的资源，
他们有限的资源，
08:35
are trying to protect
as much of the city as possible,
as much of the city as possible,
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试着尽可能地
保护城市中更多的地方，
保护城市中更多的地方，
08:38
arrest rioters wherever possible
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在任何可能的地点逮捕暴动者，
08:40
and to create a deterrent effect.
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并产生威慑作用。
08:45
And actually, as it turns out,
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事实上，结果证明，
08:47
this mechanism between the two species,
so to speak, of rioters and police,
so to speak, of rioters and police,
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这两种物种之间的机制，
也就是说，暴徒和警察，
也就是说，暴徒和警察，
08:51
is identical to predators
and prey in the wild.
and prey in the wild.
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和掠食者在野外捕食是一样的。
08:54
So if you can imagine rabbits and foxes,
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所以如果你想象兔子和狐狸，
08:56
rabbits are trying to avoid
foxes at all costs,
foxes at all costs,
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兔子在不惜一切代价地试着躲狐狸，
08:59
while foxes are patrolling the space,
trying to look for rabbits.
trying to look for rabbits.
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而狐狸在区域里巡逻
来试着寻找兔子。
来试着寻找兔子。
09:03
We actually know an awful lot
about the dynamics of predators and prey.
about the dynamics of predators and prey.
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实际上，我们非常了解
捕食者和猎物的动态。
捕食者和猎物的动态。
09:06
We also know a lot about
consumer spending flows.
consumer spending flows.
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我们也了解消费者支出流。
09:11
And we know a lot about
how viruses spread through a population.
how viruses spread through a population.
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而且关于病毒在人口中如何
传播，我们也颇有研究。
传播，我们也颇有研究。
09:14
So if you take these three analogies
together and exploit them,
together and exploit them,
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那么如果你把这三个类比
放在一起来观察和分析，
放在一起来观察和分析，
09:17
you can come up with a mathematical
model of what actually happened,
model of what actually happened,
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你就能对实际发生的事情
得出一个数学模型，
得出一个数学模型，
09:20
that's capable of replicating
the general patterns
the general patterns
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能够复制暴动者他们自己的
09:23
of the riots themselves.
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一般模式。
09:25
Now, once we've got this,
we can almost use this as a petri dish
we can almost use this as a petri dish
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一旦我们得到这个模型，
几乎就可以用这个作为基础，
几乎就可以用这个作为基础，
09:28
and start having conversations
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并开始讨论
09:30
about which areas of the city
were more susceptible than others
were more susceptible than others
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城市的哪些区域比
其他地区更可疑，
其他地区更可疑，
09:33
and what police tactics could be used
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以及当问题再次发生时，
09:35
if this were ever to happen
again in the future.
again in the future.
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警察可以采取哪些手段。
09:37
Even twenty years ago, modeling
of this sort was completely unheard of.
of this sort was completely unheard of.
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就在二十年前，人们对这类
建模都还一无所知。
建模都还一无所知。
09:41
But I think that these analogies
are an incredibly important tool
are an incredibly important tool
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但是我认为，这些类比方法
在追踪我们的社会问题时
在追踪我们的社会问题时
09:46
in tackling problems with our society,
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是非常重要的工具，
09:48
and perhaps, ultimately improving
our society overall.
our society overall.
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或许最终还可以
改善我们的社会环境。
改善我们的社会环境。
09:52
So, to conclude: life is complex,
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那么总结一下：生活是复杂的，
09:54
but perhaps understanding it need not
necessarily be that complicated.
necessarily be that complicated.
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但或许要理解它，没有那么复杂。
09:58
Thank you.
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谢谢。
09:59
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
Translated by jacks peng
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hannah Fry - Complexity theoristHannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future.
Why you should listen
Hannah Fry completed her PhD in fluid dynamics in early 2011 with an emphasis on how liquid droplets move. Then, after working as an aerodynamicist in the motorsport industry, she began work on an interdisciplinary project in complexity sciences at University College London. Hannah’s current research focusses on discovering new connections between mathematically described systems and human interaction at the largest scale.
Fry is the author of the TED Book, The Mathematics of Love: Patterns, Proofs, and the Search for the Ultimate Equation.
Hannah Fry | Speaker | TED.com