TED2017
Robin Hanson: What would happen if we upload our brains to computers?
罗宾 · 汉森: 如果我们把大脑上传至电脑会发生什么？
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认识一下“仿真脑” —— 模仿人类大脑的机器，可以思考，感觉和工作，就像被它们复制的真实大脑一样。身为未来主义者兼社会科学家的罗宾 · 汉森描述了一个可能的未来： 仿真脑接管了全球经济，运行在超高速计算机上，并进行自我复制完成多任务处理，只留给人类一个选择: 永久退休。看一看汉森所描述的那不可思议的未来，如果机器人统治地球时将会发生的事情。
Robin Hanson - Futurist, social scientist
Does humanity have a future as uploaded minds? In his work, Robin Hanson asks this and other extra-large questions. Full bio
Does humanity have a future as uploaded minds? In his work, Robin Hanson asks this and other extra-large questions. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Someday, we may have robots
as smart as people,
as smart as people,
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总有一天，机器人
会像人类一样聪明，
会像人类一样聪明，
00:17
artificial intelligence, AI.
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这要归功于人工智能，简称AI。
00:20
How could that happen?
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这是怎样发生的呢？
00:22
One route is that we'll just keep
accumulating better software,
accumulating better software,
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一种方法是我们将不断地
积累技术，开发出更好的软件，
积累技术，开发出更好的软件，
00:26
like we've been doing for 70 years.
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我们已经这样做了70年了。
00:28
At past rates of progress,
that may take centuries.
that may take centuries.
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按照过去的发展速度来看，
这可能需要几个世纪的时间。
这可能需要几个世纪的时间。
00:32
Some say it'll happen a lot faster
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有人说，当我们发现
00:34
as we discover grand new
powerful theories of intelligence.
powerful theories of intelligence.
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更新颖、更强大的智能理论时，
它将会更快地发生。
它将会更快地发生。
00:38
I'm skeptical.
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我对此持怀疑态度。
00:40
But a third scenario
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但还有第三种情况，
00:43
is what I'm going to talk about today.
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也是我今天要讲的。
这个想法是从人脑中移植出智能软件。
00:45
The idea is to port the software
from the human brain.
from the human brain.
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00:48
To do this, we're going to need
three technologies to be good enough,
three technologies to be good enough,
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要做到这一点，需要
让三种技术的发展足够成熟，
让三种技术的发展足够成熟，
但目前还为时尚早。
00:52
and none of them are there yet.
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00:54
First, we're going to need
lots of cheap, fast, parallel computers.
lots of cheap, fast, parallel computers.
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首先，我们需要很多便宜的，
高性能的，并行的计算机。
高性能的，并行的计算机。
01:00
Second, we're going to need
to scan individual human brains
to scan individual human brains
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第二，我们需要精确地
从空间与化学细节上
从空间与化学细节上
01:05
in fine spatial and chemical detail,
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来扫描个人的大脑，
01:07
to see exactly what cells are where,
connected to what, of what type.
connected to what, of what type.
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才能确切地知道什么类型的细胞
位于哪里，它又连接着什么结构。
位于哪里，它又连接着什么结构。
01:11
And third, we're going to need
computer models
computer models
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并且第三，我们需要一种电脑模型，
01:15
of how each kind of brain cell works --
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它包含了每一种
脑细胞的工作原理——
脑细胞的工作原理——
01:19
taking input signals,
changing interval state
changing interval state
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接受输入信号，改变间隔状态，
然后发送输出信号。
01:21
and sending output signals.
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如果我们有足够多的
各类大脑细胞模型，
各类大脑细胞模型，
01:22
If we have good enough models
of all the kinds of brain cells
of all the kinds of brain cells
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与一个足够好的大脑模型，
01:26
and a good enough model of the brain,
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我们就可以把它们结合在一起来
形成一个足够完整的大脑模型，
形成一个足够完整的大脑模型，
01:28
we can put it together to make
a good enough model of an entire brain,
a good enough model of an entire brain,
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01:32
and that model would have the same
input-output behavior as the original.
input-output behavior as the original.
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并且这个模型的输入输出行为
和人类大脑一样。
和人类大脑一样。
所以如果你跟它说话，
它可能会回话。
它可能会回话。
01:36
So if you talk to it, it might talk back.
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如果你让它去做事情，它可能会做。
01:38
If you ask it to do things,
it might do them.
it might do them.
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如果我们能做到这一点，
一切都会改变。
一切都会改变。
01:40
And if we could do that,
everything would change.
everything would change.
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几十年来人们一直在谈论这个想法，
01:43
People have been talking
about this idea for decades,
about this idea for decades,
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以“上传”的名义。
01:46
under the name of "uploads."
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01:47
I'm going to call them "ems."
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我把它们叫做“仿真脑 (em)”。
01:50
When they talk about it, they say,
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当他们谈论这个时会说，
”这真的可能吗？
01:52
"Is this even possible?
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01:54
If you made one, would it be conscious?
Or is it just an empty machine?
Or is it just an empty machine?
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如果你做了一个，它会有意识的吗？
或者它只是一个空壳的机器？
或者它只是一个空壳的机器？
01:58
If you made one of me,
is that me or someone else?"
is that me or someone else?"
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如果你创造了一个‘我’，
那它到底是我还是其他人？”
那它到底是我还是其他人？”
02:01
These are all fascinating questions
that I'm going to ignore ...
that I'm going to ignore ...
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我将忽略这些令人着迷的问题……
02:04
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:07
because I see a neglected question:
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因为我看到了一个被忽视的问题：
02:09
What would actually happen?
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究竟会发生什么事？
02:12
I became obsessed with this question.
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我对这个问题很痴迷。
02:15
I spent four years trying to analyze it,
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我花了四年时间来分析它，
02:18
using standard academic tools,
to guess what would happen,
to guess what would happen,
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使用标准的学术工具，
来猜测会发生什么，
来猜测会发生什么，
02:22
and I'm here to tell you what I found.
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下面我就来说一说我的发现。
02:24
But be warned --
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但是要注意——
02:26
I'm not offering inspiration,
I'm offering analysis.
I'm offering analysis.
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我不提供灵感，只提供分析结果。
02:30
I see my job as telling you
what's most likely to happen
what's most likely to happen
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我的工作就是告诉你
最有可能会发生的事情，
最有可能会发生的事情，
02:32
if we did the least to avoid it.
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如果我们没有努力避免它的话。
02:36
If you aren't at least a bit disturbed
by something I tell you here,
by something I tell you here,
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如果你对我在这里告诉
你的事情不感到丝毫不安的话，
你的事情不感到丝毫不安的话，
那你只是没有认真听。
02:39
you're just not paying attention.
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（笑声）
02:41
(Laughter)
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好的，我首先要告诉你们的是，
02:42
OK, the first thing I can tell you
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02:45
is that ems spend most
of their life in virtual reality.
of their life in virtual reality.
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仿真脑的大部分时间
都是在虚拟现实生活中度过的。
都是在虚拟现实生活中度过的。
02:48
This is what you might look like
if you were using virtual reality.
if you were using virtual reality.
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如果你使用虚拟现实，
这就是你的样子。
这就是你的样子。
02:54
And this is what you might see:
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这就是你们可能看到的：
02:57
sunlight glinting off of water,
you might hear gulls flying above,
you might hear gulls flying above,
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阳光在水面上闪闪发光，
你可能会听到海鸥在飞翔，
你可能会听到海鸥在飞翔，
03:00
you might even feel the wind
on your cheeks or smell seawater,
on your cheeks or smell seawater,
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在高级硬件的帮助下，
你甚至可以感觉到脸颊上的风，
你甚至可以感觉到脸颊上的风，
或者闻到海水的味道。
03:03
with advanced hardware.
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03:06
Now, if you were to spend
a lot of time here,
a lot of time here,
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如果你要花很多时间在这里，
你可能想要一个仪表盘，
03:08
you might want a dashboard
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03:09
where you could do things like
make a phone call,
make a phone call,
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让你可以做一些事情，
比如打个电话，
比如打个电话，
移动到一个新的虚拟世界，
03:12
move to a new virtual world,
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03:13
check your bank account.
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检查你的银行账户。
03:15
Now, while this is what
you would look like in virtual reality,
you would look like in virtual reality,
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这就是置身于
虚拟现实中的你真正的样子，
虚拟现实中的你真正的样子，
03:19
this is what an em
would look like in virtual reality.
would look like in virtual reality.
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同样在虚拟现实中，
这就是仿真脑的真正的样子。
这就是仿真脑的真正的样子。
03:22
It's computer hardware
sitting in a server rack somewhere.
sitting in a server rack somewhere.
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它是放在某处一个
服务器柜里的电脑硬件。
服务器柜里的电脑硬件。
03:25
But still, it could see
and experience the same thing.
and experience the same thing.
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但是，它仍然可以看到
和体验到同样的东西。
和体验到同样的东西。
03:29
But some things are different for ems.
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但对于仿真脑来说，
有些事情是不同的。
有些事情是不同的。
03:31
First, while you'll probably always notice
that virtual reality isn't entirely real,
that virtual reality isn't entirely real,
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首先，你可能会注意到
虚拟现实并不是完全真实的，
虚拟现实并不是完全真实的，
03:36
to an em, it can feel as real to them
as this room feels to you now
as this room feels to you now
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而对仿真脑来说，就像你
对这个房间或其他东西的感觉一样，
对这个房间或其他东西的感觉一样，
一切如此真实。
03:39
or as anything ever feels.
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03:41
And ems also have
some more action possibilities.
some more action possibilities.
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并且仿真脑在行动上
也有更多的可能性。
也有更多的可能性。
03:44
For example, your mind just always
runs at the same speed,
runs at the same speed,
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例如，你的大脑总是
以恒定的速度运行，
以恒定的速度运行，
但是一个仿真脑可以通过增减
计算机硬件来调整运行速度，
计算机硬件来调整运行速度，
03:47
but an em can add more or less
computer hardware to run faster or slower,
computer hardware to run faster or slower,
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03:50
and therefore, if the world around them
seems to be going too fast,
seems to be going too fast,
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因此，如果它们觉得周围的
世界发展得太快了，
世界发展得太快了，
就可以加快思维速度，
03:54
they can just speed up their mind,
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03:56
and the world around them
would seem to slow down.
would seem to slow down.
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这样它们周围的世界似乎就会变慢。
此外，一个仿真脑还可以
在那个时候复制自己的副本。
在那个时候复制自己的副本。
03:58
In addition, an em can make
a copy of itself at that moment.
a copy of itself at that moment.
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04:04
This copy would remember
everything the same,
everything the same,
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这个拷贝会记住所有的东西，
04:06
and if it starts out with the same speed,
looking at the same speed,
looking at the same speed,
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如果它以同样的速度开始运行，
以相同的速度观察一切，
以相同的速度观察一切，
04:09
it might even need to be told,
"You are the copy."
"You are the copy."
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那可能还需要告诉它：
“你只是复制品。”
“你只是复制品。”
04:12
And em could make archive copies,
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仿真脑也可以制作存档，
04:14
and with enough archives,
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如果有足够的档案，
一个仿真脑也可以是不朽的——
04:16
an em can be immortal --
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04:18
in principle, though not
usually in practice.
usually in practice.
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这是从原理上讲，
不过在现实中不太常见。
不过在现实中不太常见。
04:21
And an em can move its brain,
the computer that represents its brain,
the computer that represents its brain,
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一个仿真脑可以移动它的大脑，
也就是承载它的大脑的电脑，
也就是承载它的大脑的电脑，
04:24
from one physical location to another.
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从一个物理位置到另一个物理位置。
04:28
Ems can actually move around the world
at the speed of light,
at the speed of light,
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事实上，仿真脑可以
以光速在世界上移动，
以光速在世界上移动，
通过移动到一个新的位置，
04:31
and by moving to a new location,
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04:32
they can interact more quickly
with ems near that new location.
with ems near that new location.
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它们可以更快地与
在新位置附近的仿真脑交互。
在新位置附近的仿真脑交互。
04:36
So far, I've been talking about
what ems can do.
what ems can do.
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到目前为止，我一直在
讨论仿真脑能做什么。
讨论仿真脑能做什么。
04:41
What do ems choose to do?
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但仿真脑会选择做什么呢？
04:44
To understand that, we'll need
to understand three key facts.
to understand three key facts.
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要理解这一点，
我们需要理解三个关键的事实。
我们需要理解三个关键的事实。
04:48
First, ems by definition do what
the human they emulate would do
the human they emulate would do
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首先，根据定义，仿真脑在同一情况下
理应会做出它们所模仿的人类
理应会做出它们所模仿的人类
04:54
in the same situation.
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所做的事情。
04:56
So their lives and behavior
are very human.
are very human.
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所以它们的生活和
行为是非常人性化的。
行为是非常人性化的。
04:58
They're mainly different because
they're living in a different world.
they're living in a different world.
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其中的区别主要归因于
他们生活在一个不同的世界。
他们生活在一个不同的世界。
其次，仿真脑需要
真正的资源来生存。
真正的资源来生存。
05:02
Second, ems need
real resources to survive.
real resources to survive.
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你需要食物与住所，否则就性命不保。
05:05
You need food and shelter or you'll die.
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05:09
Also, ems need computer hardware,
energy, cooling, or they can't exist.
energy, cooling, or they can't exist.
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同样，仿真脑需要计算机硬件、
电源、散热，不然它们将不能生存。
电源、散热，不然它们将不能生存。
05:13
For every subjective minute
that an em experiences,
that an em experiences,
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对于仿真脑经历的每一个主观时刻，
05:16
someone, usually that em,
had to work to pay for it.
had to work to pay for it.
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某个“人”——它通常是仿真脑本身，
需要为此工作赚钱。
需要为此工作赚钱。
05:20
Third, ems are poor.
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第三，仿真脑很穷。
05:21
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
05:23
The em population can grow
quicker than the em economy,
quicker than the em economy,
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仿真脑社会的人口增长速度
快于仿真脑的经济体，
快于仿真脑的经济体，
05:26
so that means wages fall down
to em subsistence levels.
to em subsistence levels.
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这意味着它们的工资水平
将会低到仅能维持生活，
将会低到仅能维持生活，
05:29
That means ems have to be working
most of the time.
most of the time.
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仿真脑的大部分时间都必须工作。
05:32
So that means
this is what ems usually see:
this is what ems usually see:
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这也意味着仿真脑通常会看到：
05:35
beautiful and luxurious, but desks --
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美丽又豪华的，办公桌——
05:38
they're working most of the time.
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他们大部分的时间都在工作。
05:40
Now, a subsistence wage scenario,
you might think, is exotic and strange,
you might think, is exotic and strange,
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你可能会认为，这种只能赚取
勉强糊口的工资的情景让人匪夷所思，
勉强糊口的工资的情景让人匪夷所思，
05:44
but it's actually the usual case
in human history,
in human history,
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但这种情况在人类历史上并不罕见，
05:46
and it's how pretty much
all wild animals have ever lived,
all wild animals have ever lived,
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也几乎是所有野生动物的生活方式，
所以我们知道人类
在这种情况下会做什么。
在这种情况下会做什么。
05:49
so we know what humans do
in this situation.
in this situation.
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05:51
Humans basically do
what it takes to survive,
what it takes to survive,
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人类基本上是为了生存而行动，
05:54
and this is what lets me say
so much about the em world.
so much about the em world.
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这就是为什么我说了这么多
关于仿真脑世界的情况。
关于仿真脑世界的情况。
05:58
When creatures are rich, like you,
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当生物富有时，就像你们一样，
06:01
you have to know a lot
about what they want
about what they want
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你必须知道他们想要什么，
来弄清楚他们在做什么。
06:03
to figure out what they do.
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当生物贫穷时，
06:04
When creatures are poor,
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你知道他们大部分的
行为都是为了生存。
行为都是为了生存。
06:05
you know that they mostly do
what it takes to survive.
what it takes to survive.
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06:08
So we've been talking about the em world
from the point of view of the ems --
from the point of view of the ems --
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我们已经从仿真脑的角度
讨论了它们的世界——
讨论了它们的世界——
现在，让我们回到现实中，
来窥视它们的整个世界。
来窥视它们的整个世界。
06:12
now, let's step back
and look at their whole world.
and look at their whole world.
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首先，仿真脑社会的发展速度
比我们的快得多，
比我们的快得多，
06:14
First, the em world grows
much faster than ours,
much faster than ours,
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06:18
roughly a hundred times faster.
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大概要快100倍。
06:20
So the amount of change
we would experience in a century or two,
we would experience in a century or two,
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所以我们在一到两个世纪里
所经历的变化，
所经历的变化，
它们会在一两年内体验到。
06:23
they would experience in a year or two.
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我不太愿意把时代设计的太远，
06:25
And I'm not really willing to project
this age much beyond that,
this age much beyond that,
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因为很有可能会发生其他事情，
我不知道是什么。
我不知道是什么。
06:28
because plausibly by then something else
will happen, I don't know what.
will happen, I don't know what.
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第二，典型的仿真脑运行得更快，
06:32
Second, the typical emulation
runs even faster,
runs even faster,
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06:34
roughly a thousand times human speed.
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约是人类速度的一千倍。
06:37
So for them, they experience
thousands of years in this year or two,
thousands of years in this year or two,
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对它们来说，在这一两年内
经历了相当于我们数千年的生活，
经历了相当于我们数千年的生活，
06:42
and for them, the world around them
is actually changing more slowly
is actually changing more slowly
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他们周围的世界变化得
比你的世界似乎更慢。
06:45
than your world seems to change for you.
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06:48
Third, ems are crammed together
in a small number of very dense cities.
in a small number of very dense cities.
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第三，仿真脑在少数
人口密集的城市里挤在一起。
人口密集的城市里挤在一起。
06:52
This is not only how they see
themselves in virtual reality,
themselves in virtual reality,
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这不仅仅是它们在
虚拟现实中如何看待自己，
虚拟现实中如何看待自己，
06:56
it's also how they actually are
physically crammed together.
physically crammed together.
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也是它们实际上
是如何被挤在一起的。
是如何被挤在一起的。
06:59
So at em speeds, physical travel
feels really painfully slow,
feels really painfully slow,
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相比于仿真脑的运行速度，
其物理行进速度非常缓慢，
其物理行进速度非常缓慢，
07:03
so most em cities are self-sufficient,
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所以大多数仿真脑城市
都是自给自足的，
都是自给自足的，
大多数战争都是网络战争，
07:05
most war is cyber war,
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地球上剩余的大部分
远离仿真脑城市的地方，
远离仿真脑城市的地方，
07:07
and most of the rest of the earth
away from the em cities
away from the em cities
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留给了人类，
因为仿真脑对它并不感兴趣。
因为仿真脑对它并不感兴趣。
07:10
is left to the humans, because the ems
really aren't that interested in it.
really aren't that interested in it.
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07:14
Speaking of humans,
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说到人类，
这是你们想知道的。
07:15
you were wanting to hear about that.
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07:17
Humans must retire, at once, for good.
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人类必须同时退休，
以保持良好的生活。
以保持良好的生活。
07:22
They just can't compete.
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他们不再有竞争力了。
07:24
Now, humans start out owning
all of the capital in this world.
all of the capital in this world.
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现在，人类开始拥有
世界上所有的资本。
世界上所有的资本。
07:28
The economy grows very fast,
their wealth grows very fast.
their wealth grows very fast.
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经济增长非常快，
他们的财富也增长很快。
他们的财富也增长很快。
07:30
Humans get rich, collectively.
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人类会共同地致富。
07:34
As you may know, most humans today
don't actually own that much
don't actually own that much
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你们可能知道，现在大多数人类
并没有真正拥有什么东西，
并没有真正拥有什么东西，
07:37
besides their ability to work,
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除了他们的工作能力，
07:39
so between now and then,
they need to acquire sufficient assets,
they need to acquire sufficient assets,
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因此，从现在到那时，
他们需要获得足够的资产，
他们需要获得足够的资产，
07:42
insurance or sharing arrangements,
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准备保险或分成协议，
07:44
or they may starve.
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要不然他们可能会挨饿。
07:46
I highly recommend avoiding this outcome.
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我强烈建议避免这种结果。
07:48
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
07:50
Now, you might wonder,
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你们可能想知道，
为什么仿真脑会让人类存在？
07:51
why would ems let humans exist?
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07:53
Why not kill them, take their stuff?
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为什么不杀死并取代他们？
07:55
But notice we have many
unproductive retirees around us today,
unproductive retirees around us today,
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但是注意到今天我们身边有
很多没有效率的退休人员，
很多没有效率的退休人员，
而我们并不会杀死他们，
拿走他们的一切。
拿走他们的一切。
07:58
and we don't kill them
and take their stuff.
and take their stuff.
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08:00
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
08:02
In part, that's because it would disrupt
the institutions we share with them.
the institutions we share with them.
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在某种程度上，这是因为这样
会破坏我们与他们共享的制度。
会破坏我们与他们共享的制度。
08:07
Other groups would wonder who's next,
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其他群体就会想，谁会下一个遭殃？
08:09
so plausibly, ems may well let humans
retire in peace during the age of em.
retire in peace during the age of em.
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因此，在仿真脑时期，仿真脑
很有可能让人类和平地退休。
很有可能让人类和平地退休。
08:14
You should worry more that
the age of em only lasts a year or two
the age of em only lasts a year or two
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你应该更加担心仿真脑的时代
只会持续一到两年，
只会持续一到两年，
而你却不知道接下来会发生什么。
08:17
and you don't know what happens next.
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08:21
Ems are very much like humans,
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仿真脑和人类很像，
08:23
but they are not like the typical human.
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但它们不像典型的人类。
08:26
The typical em is a copy
of the few hundred most productive humans.
of the few hundred most productive humans.
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典型的仿真脑是
几百个最有生产力的人的翻版。
几百个最有生产力的人的翻版。
08:33
So in fact, they are as elite,
compared to the typical human,
compared to the typical human,
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所以事实上，
与一般人相比他们是精英，
与一般人相比他们是精英，
是典型的亿万富翁，
诺贝尔奖得主，
诺贝尔奖得主，
08:36
as the typical billionaire,
Nobel Prize winner,
Nobel Prize winner,
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08:39
Olympic gold medalist, head of state.
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奥运金牌得主，国家元首。
08:42
Ems look on humans
perhaps with nostalgia and gratitude,
perhaps with nostalgia and gratitude,
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仿真脑可能会带着
怀旧和感激之情看待人类，
怀旧和感激之情看待人类，
08:46
but not so much respect,
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但是没有多少尊重，
08:48
which is, if you think about it,
how you think about your ancestors.
how you think about your ancestors.
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就像你仔细想想，
自己是怎么看待祖先的。
自己是怎么看待祖先的。
我们知道许多关于
人类个体在生产力方面的不同之处。
人类个体在生产力方面的不同之处。
08:51
We know many things about how humans
differ in terms of productivity.
differ in terms of productivity.
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我们可以用这些来
预测仿真脑的特征——
预测仿真脑的特征——
08:54
We can just use those
to predict features of ems --
to predict features of ems --
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例如，他们往往聪明，认真，勤奋，
08:57
for example, they tend to be smart,
conscientious, hard-working,
conscientious, hard-working,
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已婚，有宗教信仰，中年。
09:00
married, religious, middle-aged.
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09:02
These are features of ems.
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这些是仿真脑的特点。
09:04
Em world also contains enormous variety.
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仿真脑的世界
也有巨大的多样性。
也有巨大的多样性。
09:06
Not only does it continue on with most
of the kinds of variety that humans do,
of the kinds of variety that humans do,
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它不仅延续了人类
大多数种类的多样性，
大多数种类的多样性，
包括行业与专业的多样性，
09:10
including variety of industry
and profession,
and profession,
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他们也在很多新型特点上
体现了多样性，
体现了多样性，
09:12
they also have many new kinds of variety,
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09:15
and one of the most important
is mind speed.
is mind speed.
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而其中最重要的是思维速度。
09:17
Ems can plausibly go from human speed
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仿真脑几乎可以
从与人类的思考速度齐平，
从与人类的思考速度齐平，
09:21
up to a million times
faster than human speed,
faster than human speed,
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到比人类的速度快一百万倍，
09:24
and down to a billion times
slower than human speed.
slower than human speed.
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或是比人类的速度慢10亿倍。
09:28
Faster ems tend to have
markers of high status.
markers of high status.
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更快的仿真脑往往具有较高的地位。
09:31
They embody more wealth.
They win arguments.
They win arguments.
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它们体现了更多的财富，
在争论中具有优势。
在争论中具有优势。
09:33
They sit at premium locations.
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它们位高权重。
09:34
Slower ems are mostly retirees,
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较慢的仿真脑主要是退休人员，
09:36
and they are like the ghosts
of our literature.
of our literature.
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它们就像我们文学中的幽灵一样。
如果你还记得，
鬼魂就在我们身边——
鬼魂就在我们身边——
09:39
If you recall, ghosts are all around us --
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如果你能承受代价，
也可以和它们互动。
也可以和它们互动。
09:41
you can interact with them
if you pay the price.
if you pay the price.
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但是它们不懂什么，
也产生不了多少影响，
也产生不了多少影响，
09:43
But they don't know much,
they can't influence much,
they can't influence much,
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09:45
and they're obsessed with the past,
so what's the point?
so what's the point?
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但是对过去很着迷，
不过那有什么意义呢？
不过那有什么意义呢？
（笑声）
09:48
(Laughter)
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仿真脑的生活结构中
也有更多的多样性。
也有更多的多样性。
09:49
Ems also have more variety
in the structure of their lives.
in the structure of their lives.
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09:52
This is your life: you start
and you end, really simple.
and you end, really simple.
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这就是你的生活：
从开始到结束，很简单。
从开始到结束，很简单。
这是一个仿真脑的生活，
09:55
This is the life of an em,
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每天都有一些短期的拷贝，
09:57
who every day splits off
some short-term copies
some short-term copies
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完成短期任务，然后结束。
09:59
to do short-term tasks and then end.
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我们稍后会详细讨论
这些短期版本，
这些短期版本，
10:01
We'll talk more about
those short term versions in a moment,
those short term versions in a moment,
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但是它们的效率更高，
10:05
but they are much more efficient
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因为它们不需要在第二天休息。
10:07
because they don't have to rest
for the next day.
for the next day.
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这个仿真脑很会投机取巧。
10:09
This em is more opportunistic.
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10:11
They make more copies of themselves
when there's more demand for that.
when there's more demand for that.
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当有更多需求时，
它们会进行更多次的自我复制。
它们会进行更多次的自我复制。
10:14
They don't know which way
the future's going.
the future's going.
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它们并不知道未来的发展方向。
这是一个仿真脑设计师，
10:16
This is an em designer,
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10:17
who conceives of a large system
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它构想了一个大系统，
然后再递归地分裂成拷贝
来详细说明它的构想，
来详细说明它的构想，
10:19
and then breaks recursively into copies
who elaborate that,
who elaborate that,
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10:22
so ems can implement
larger, more coherent designs.
larger, more coherent designs.
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因此，仿真脑可以实现更大、
更连贯的设计。
更连贯的设计。
这是仿真脑世界里的一个水管工，
10:26
This an emulation plumber
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10:27
who remembers that every day,
for the last 20 years,
for the last 20 years,
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它记得在过去的20年里的每一天，
它们每天只工作两小时，
是一种悠闲的生活。
是一种悠闲的生活。
10:30
they only ever worked
two hours a day, a life of leisure.
two hours a day, a life of leisure.
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10:33
But what really happened is,
every day they had a thousand copies,
every day they had a thousand copies,
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但实情是，他们每天
都有一千份拷贝，
都有一千份拷贝，
每个人都做了两小时的水管工工作，
10:36
each of whom did a two-hour plumbing job,
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其中只有一个人
第二天接着工作。
第二天接着工作。
10:38
and only one of them
went on to the next day.
went on to the next day.
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客观地说，它们的
工作时间超过了99%。
工作时间超过了99%。
10:40
Objectively, they're working
well over 99 percent of the time.
well over 99 percent of the time.
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不过主观上，他们还记得
一种悠闲的生活。
一种悠闲的生活。
10:43
Subjectively, they remember
a life of leisure.
a life of leisure.
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（笑声）
10:45
(Laughter)
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同样是你，开始到结束。
10:46
This, again, is you.
You start and you end.
You start and you end.
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这可能是你在派对开始的时候，
10:48
This could be you
if at the start of party,
if at the start of party,
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服用了一种药物，
意味着你在那天之后再也
意味着你在那天之后再也
10:50
you took a drug that meant
you would not remember that party
you would not remember that party
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想不起那天的派对。
10:53
ever after that day.
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有人告诉我，他们会这么做。
10:55
Some people do this, I'm told.
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10:57
Toward the end of the party,
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在派对即将结束的时候，
10:59
will you say to yourself,
"I'm about to die, this is terrible.
"I'm about to die, this is terrible.
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你是否会对自己说：
“我快要死了，这太可怕了。
“我快要死了，这太可怕了。
明天的那个人不是我，
因为他们不记得我做了什么。”
因为他们不记得我做了什么。”
11:02
That person tomorrow isn't me,
because they won't remember what I do."
because they won't remember what I do."
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或者你可以说，“明天，我还是我，
只是不记得我刚刚做了什么。”
只是不记得我刚刚做了什么。”
11:05
Or you could say, "I will go on tomorrow.
I just won't remember what I did."
I just won't remember what I did."
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这是一个制造短期副本的仿真脑，
11:09
This is an em who splits off
a short-term copy
a short-term copy
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11:12
to do a short-term task and then end.
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用来完成一项短期任务，然后结束。
它们有相同的两种态度。
11:13
They have the same two
attitude possibilities.
attitude possibilities.
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它们可以说，“我是一个
生命短暂的生物。我讨厌这个。”
生命短暂的生物。我讨厌这个。”
11:16
They can say, "I'm a new short-term
creature with a short life. I hate this."
creature with a short life. I hate this."
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或者“我是一个更大的生物的一部分，
它只是不记得这个部分。”
它只是不记得这个部分。”
11:19
Or "I'm a part of a larger creature
who won't remember this part."
who won't remember this part."
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我预测它们会持第二种态度，
11:23
I predict they'll have
that second attitude,
that second attitude,
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不是因为它在哲学上是正确的，
而是因为它能帮助它们更好地相处。
而是因为它能帮助它们更好地相处。
11:25
not because it's philosophically correct,
but because it helps them get along.
but because it helps them get along.
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今天，如果总统说
我们必须入侵伊拉克，
我们必须入侵伊拉克，
11:28
Today, if the president says
we must invade Iraq,
we must invade Iraq,
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你会说，“为什么？”
11:31
and you say, "Why?"
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接着他们说，“国家机密”。
11:32
and they say, "State secret,"
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你不确定是否可以信任他们，
11:33
you're not sure if you can trust them,
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但是对于仿真脑来说，总统的拷贝
与你的拷贝可以进入保险箱，
与你的拷贝可以进入保险箱，
11:35
but for ems, a copy of the president
and a copy of you can go inside a safe,
and a copy of you can go inside a safe,
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解释他们所有的秘密原因，
11:39
explain all their secret reasons,
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11:40
and then one bit comes out
from your copy to yourself,
from your copy to yourself,
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如果你被说服了，你的拷贝就会
发送给你的本体一条信息，
发送给你的本体一条信息，
告诉你：你被说服了。
11:43
telling you if you were convinced.
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所以现在你知道有一个很好的理由。
11:45
So now you can know
there is a good reason.
there is a good reason.
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11:47
I know you guys are all eager
to evaluate this world.
to evaluate this world.
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我知道你们都渴望评价这个世界。
你渴望决定你是否喜欢它，
或者讨厌它。
或者讨厌它。
11:50
You're eager to decide
if you love it or hate it.
if you love it or hate it.
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但是想想你几千年前的祖先，
11:52
But think: your ancestors
from thousands of years ago
from thousands of years ago
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会根据他们听闻的最初的几件事，
11:55
would have loved or hated your world
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11:57
based on the first few things
they heard about it,
they heard about it,
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来选择爱或恨这个世界，
因为这个世界真的很奇怪。
11:59
because your world
is really just weird.
is really just weird.
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所以在判断一个奇怪的
未来世界之前，你应该好好了解它，
未来世界之前，你应该好好了解它，
12:01
So before judging a strange future world,
you should really learn a lot about it,
you should really learn a lot about it,
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也许读一本关于它的书，
12:05
maybe read a whole book about it,
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然后，如果你不喜欢它，
那就努力工作去改变它。
那就努力工作去改变它。
12:07
and then, if you don't like it,
work to change it.
work to change it.
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谢谢。
12:09
Thank you.
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（掌声）
12:10
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robin Hanson - Futurist, social scientistDoes humanity have a future as uploaded minds? In his work, Robin Hanson asks this and other extra-large questions.
Why you should listen
In his book, The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth, Robin Hanson re-imagines humanity's role as our tech becomes smarter. A pioneer in prediction markets, also known as information markets and idea futures, Hanson has been known since the 1980s for taking the very very long view on topics as varied as (a selected list) spatial product competition, health incentive contracts, group insurance, product bans, evolutionary psychology and bioethics of health care, voter information incentives, incentives to fake expertise, Bayesian classification, agreeing to disagree, self-deception in disagreement, probability elicitation, wiretaps, image reconstruction, the history of science prizes, reversible computation, the origin of life, the survival of humanity, very long term economic growth, growth given machine intelligence and interstellar colonization.
Meanwhile, he has developed new technologies for conditional, combinatorial and intermediated trading, and he studied insider trading, manipulation and other foul play. Hanson is associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. His next book is The Elephant in the Brain, co-authored with Kevin Simler, due in 2018.
Robin Hanson | Speaker | TED.com