ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robin Hanson - Futurist, social scientist
Does humanity have a future as uploaded minds? In his work, Robin Hanson asks this and other extra-large questions.

Why you should listen

In his book, The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth, Robin Hanson re-imagines humanity's role as our tech becomes smarter. A pioneer in prediction markets, also known as information markets and idea futures, Hanson has been known since the 1980s for taking the very very long view on topics as varied as (a selected list) spatial product competition, health incentive contracts, group insurance, product bans, evolutionary psychology and bioethics of health care, voter information incentives, incentives to fake expertise, Bayesian classification, agreeing to disagree, self-deception in disagreement, probability elicitation, wiretaps, image reconstruction, the history of science prizes, reversible computation, the origin of life, the survival of humanity, very long term economic growth, growth given machine intelligence and interstellar colonization.

Meanwhile, he has developed new technologies for conditional, combinatorial and intermediated trading, and he studied insider trading, manipulation and other foul play. Hanson is associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. His next book is The Elephant in the Brain, co-authored with Kevin Simler, due in 2018.

More profile about the speaker
Robin Hanson | Speaker | TED.com
TED2017

Robin Hanson: What would happen if we upload our brains to computers?

羅賓韓森: 如果我們把我們的大腦上傳到電腦上,會如何?

Filmed:
1,430,160 views

認識一下「仿真腦」──模仿人類大腦的機器,它們可以像它們複製的大腦一樣思考、感覺和運作。未來學家和社會科學家羅賓韓森描述了一個可能的未來,仿真腦接管了全球經濟,在超快速電腦上運作,並進行自我複製完成多任務處理,只留給人類一個選擇:永久退休。來聽聽韓森所描述的那不可思議的未來,如果機器人統治地球時將會發生的事情。
- Futurist, social scientist
Does humanity have a future as uploaded minds? In his work, Robin Hanson asks this and other extra-large questions. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:13
Someday日後, we may可能 have robots機器人
as smart聰明 as people,
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總有一天,機器人
會像人類一樣聰明,
00:17
artificial人造 intelligence情報, AIAI.
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人工智慧,AI。
00:20
How could that happen發生?
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那要如何做到呢?
00:22
One route路線 is that we'll just keep
accumulating積累 better software軟件,
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其中一個方式就是,
我們只要繼續累積更好的軟體,
00:26
like we've我們已經 been doing for 70 years年份.
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就像我們過去七十年所做的。
00:28
At past過去 rates利率 of progress進展,
that may可能 take centuries百年.
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但以過去的進步速率推斷,
這樣要花上數百年。
00:32
Some say it'll它會 happen發生 a lot faster更快
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有人說,它會提早實現,
00:34
as we discover發現 grand盛大 new
powerful強大 theories理論 of intelligence情報.
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因為我們發現了
全新的強大智慧理論。
00:38
I'm skeptical懷疑的.
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我持懷疑態度。
00:40
But a third第三 scenario腳本
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但有第三種情況,
00:43
is what I'm going to talk about today今天.
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也是我今天要講的。
00:45
The idea理念 is to port港口 the software軟件
from the human人的 brain.
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這個想法是從人腦中移植出軟體。
00:48
To do this, we're going to need
three technologies技術 to be good enough足夠,
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要做到這一點,我們需要
讓三種技術的發展足夠成熟,
00:52
and none沒有 of them are there yet然而.
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但目前我們這些都還沒達到。
00:54
First, we're going to need
lots of cheap低廉, fast快速, parallel平行 computers電腦.
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第一,我們需要許多
廉價、快速、平行的電腦。
01:00
Second第二, we're going to need
to scan掃描 individual個人 human人的 brains大腦
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第二,我們需要在適當的
空間與正確的化學成分下
01:05
in fine spatial空間的 and chemical化學 detail詳情,
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掃瞄我們的大腦。
01:07
to see exactly究竟 what cells細胞 are where,
connected連接的 to what, of what type類型.
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這樣才能看出細胞的
精確位置、連結、類型。
01:11
And third第三, we're going to need
computer電腦 models楷模
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第三,我們需要一種電腦模型,
01:15
of how each kind of brain cell細胞 works作品 --
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關於各類腦細胞如何運作的模型──
01:19
taking服用 input輸入 signals信號,
changing改變 interval間隔 state
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可以讓我們輸入訊號,
改變區間的狀態,
01:21
and sending發出 output產量 signals信號.
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並再發送出訊號的模型。
01:22
If we have good enough足夠 models楷模
of all the kinds of brain cells細胞
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如果我們有夠好的各種腦細胞模型、
01:26
and a good enough足夠 model模型 of the brain,
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夠好的大腦模型,
01:28
we can put it together一起 to make
a good enough足夠 model模型 of an entire整個 brain,
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我們可以把它們結合起來,
做出一個完整的大腦模型,
01:32
and that model模型 would have the same相同
input-output輸入輸出 behavior行為 as the original原版的.
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那個模型與原本大腦所想要的
輸入和輸出行為一致。
所以,如果你跟它說話,
它可能會回話。
01:36
So if you talk to it, it might威力 talk back.
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01:38
If you ask it to do things,
it might威力 do them.
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如果你要它做事,它可能會去做。
01:40
And if we could do that,
everything would change更改.
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如果我們能做到這樣,
一切都會改變。
01:43
People have been talking
about this idea理念 for decades幾十年,
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幾十年來人們以「上傳」的方式
01:46
under the name名稱 of "uploads上傳."
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談論這個想法。
01:47
I'm going to call them "emsEMS."
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我打算稱它為「仿真腦(ems)」。
01:50
When they talk about it, they say,
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當他們在談論這個想法時,他們說:
01:52
"Is this even possible可能?
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「這是可能的嗎?」
01:54
If you made製作 one, would it be conscious意識?
Or is it just an empty machine?
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如果能做出來,它會是有意識的嗎?
還是只是個空機器?
01:58
If you made製作 one of me,
is that me or someone有人 else其他?"
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如果你仿了我的大腦,
它會是我還是另一個人?
02:01
These are all fascinating迷人 questions問題
that I'm going to ignore忽視 ...
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我將忽略這些令人著迷的問題…...
02:04
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
02:07
because I see a neglected被忽視的 question:
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因為我看到了一個被忽視的問題:
02:09
What would actually其實 happen發生?
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究竟會發生什麽事?
02:12
I became成為 obsessed痴迷 with this question.
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我對這個問題很著迷。
02:15
I spent花費 four years年份 trying to analyze分析 it,
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我花了四年時間來分析它,
02:18
using運用 standard標準 academic學術的 tools工具,
to guess猜測 what would happen發生,
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用標準的學術工具,
來猜測可能會發生什麼事,
02:22
and I'm here to tell you what I found發現.
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我來這裡是要告訴各位我的發現。
02:24
But be warned警告 --
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但,請注意──
02:26
I'm not offering inspiration靈感,
I'm offering analysis分析.
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我不是要提供靈感,
我是要提供分析。
02:30
I see my job工作 as telling告訴 you
what's most likely容易 to happen發生
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我認為我的工作是
告訴你們最有可能發生的情況,
02:32
if we did the least最小 to avoid避免 it.
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如果我們不花心思去預防,
02:36
If you aren't at least最小 a bit disturbed不安
by something I tell you here,
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如果你對於我今天告訴你的事
並不感到擔心,
02:39
you're just not paying付款 attention注意.
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那表示你沒在注意聽。
02:41
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
02:42
OK, the first thing I can tell you
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好,我能告訴各位的第一件事是,
02:45
is that emsEMS spend most
of their life in virtual虛擬 reality現實.
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仿真腦的大部分時間
都是在虛擬現實生活中度過的。
02:48
This is what you might威力 look like
if you were using運用 virtual虛擬 reality現實.
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如果你使用虛擬實境,
這就是你的樣子。
02:54
And this is what you might威力 see:
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這也是你可能會看到的:
02:57
sunlight陽光 glinting閃閃發光 off of water,
you might威力 hear gulls海鷗 flying飛行 above以上,
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陽光在水面上閃閃發光,
可能還會聽到海鷗從上面飛過,
03:00
you might威力 even feel the wind
on your cheeks臉頰 or smell seawater海水,
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你甚至可以用先進的硬體
03:03
with advanced高級 hardware硬件.
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感受到風吹撫過臉頰或
聞到海水的味道。
03:06
Now, if you were to spend
a lot of time here,
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如果你要花很多時間在這裡,
03:08
you might威力 want a dashboard儀表板
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你可能會想要一個儀表板,
03:09
where you could do things like
make a phone電話 call,
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讓你可以做一些事,
比如打電話、
03:12
move移動 to a new virtual虛擬 world世界,
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移動到一個新的虛擬世界、
03:13
check your bank銀行 account帳戶.
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查看銀行帳戶。
03:15
Now, while this is what
you would look like in virtual虛擬 reality現實,
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這是你在虛擬實境中
看起來的樣子,
03:19
this is what an emEM
would look like in virtual虛擬 reality現實.
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這是仿真腦在虛擬實境中
看起來的樣子。
03:22
It's computer電腦 hardware硬件
sitting坐在 in a server服務器 rack somewhere某處.
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它是電腦硬體,
就放在某個伺服器的機架上。
03:25
But still, it could see
and experience經驗 the same相同 thing.
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但它仍然能夠
看見和體驗同樣的東西。
03:29
But some things are different不同 for emsEMS.
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但對仿真腦來說,
有些東西是不同的。
03:31
First, while you'll你會 probably大概 always notice注意
that virtual虛擬 reality現實 isn't entirely完全 real真實,
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第一,你可能會留意到
虛擬實境並不全是真實的,
03:36
to an emEM, it can feel as real真實 to them
as this room房間 feels感覺 to you now
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但仿真腦感受到的真實度,
就像你現在對這空間
03:39
or as anything ever feels感覺.
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或對任何其它東西
感受到的真實度一樣。
03:41
And emsEMS also have
some more action行動 possibilities可能性.
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仿真腦還有更多的行為可能性。
03:44
For example, your mind心神 just always
runs運行 at the same相同 speed速度,
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比如,你的大腦
總是以同樣速度運作,
03:47
but an emEM can add more or less
computer電腦 hardware硬件 to run faster更快 or slower比較慢,
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但仿真腦可以透過增加或減少一些
電腦硬體來運作地更快或更慢,
03:50
and therefore因此, if the world世界 around them
seems似乎 to be going too fast快速,
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因此,如果它們覺得周圍的世界
發展地似乎太快了,
它們可以加快思考的速度,
03:54
they can just speed速度 up their mind心神,
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03:56
and the world世界 around them
would seem似乎 to slow down.
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這樣它們周遭的世界
似乎就會慢了下來。
03:58
In addition加成, an emEM can make
a copy複製 of itself本身 at that moment時刻.
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此外,仿真腦可以在
那個時候複製它自己。
04:04
This copy複製 would remember記得
everything the same相同,
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這個複製品會記住所有的東西,
04:06
and if it starts啟動 out with the same相同 speed速度,
looking at the same相同 speed速度,
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如果它用同樣的速度開始運作,
以同樣的速度觀察世界,
04:09
it might威力 even need to be told,
"You are the copy複製."
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它們甚至可能需要被告知:
「你只是個複製品。」
04:12
And emEM could make archive檔案 copies副本,
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仿真腦可以做歸檔副本,
04:14
and with enough足夠 archives檔案,
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一旦有足夠的歸檔副本,
04:16
an emEM can be immortal不朽 --
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仿真腦就可以永生——
04:18
in principle原理, though雖然 not
usually平時 in practice實踐.
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那是理論上,雖然實務上不常見。
04:21
And an emEM can move移動 its brain,
the computer電腦 that represents代表 its brain,
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仿真腦可以移動它的腦,
也就是代表它的腦的那台電腦,
04:24
from one physical物理 location位置 to another另一個.
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從一個實體地點移到另一個地點。
04:28
Ems埃姆斯 can actually其實 move移動 around the world世界
at the speed速度 of light,
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仿真腦可以用光速在全世界移動,
04:31
and by moving移動 to a new location位置,
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藉由移動到一個新地點,
04:32
they can interact相互作用 more quickly很快
with emsEMS near that new location位置.
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它可以更快速地與新地點
附近的仿真腦做互動。
04:36
So far, I've been talking about
what emsEMS can do.
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目前,我說的都是仿真腦能做什麼。
04:41
What do emsEMS choose選擇 to do?
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那仿真腦會選擇做什麼?
04:44
To understand理解 that, we'll need
to understand理解 three key facts事實.
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要了解這一點,我們得要
先了解三項關鍵事實。
04:48
First, emsEMS by definition定義 do what
the human人的 they emulate仿真 would do
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第一,定義上,
仿真腦在相同情境下,
會模仿出人類會做的事。
04:54
in the same相同 situation情況.
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04:56
So their lives生活 and behavior行為
are very human人的.
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所以它們的生活和行為
都非常像人類。
04:58
They're mainly主要 different不同 because
they're living活的 in a different不同 world世界.
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它們與人主要的差異在於
它們活在不同的世界裡。
05:02
Second第二, emsEMS need
real真實 resources資源 to survive生存.
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第二,仿真腦需要真實資源來存活。
05:05
You need food餐飲 and shelter庇護 or you'll你會 die.
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你需要食物和住所,不然就會死亡。
05:09
Also, emsEMS need computer電腦 hardware硬件,
energy能源, cooling冷卻, or they can't exist存在.
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同樣的,仿真腦需要電腦硬體、
能源、冷卻,不然它們將不能生存。
05:13
For every一切 subjective主觀 minute分鐘
that an emEM experiences經驗,
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仿真腦所經歷的主觀每一分鐘,
05:16
someone有人, usually平時 that emEM,
had to work to pay工資 for it.
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都是得有人付出才能得到的,
而付出的那個人通常是仿真腦本身。
05:20
Third第三, emsEMS are poor較差的.
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第三,仿真腦很窮。
05:21
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
05:23
The emEM population人口 can grow增長
quicker更快 than the emEM economy經濟,
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仿真腦數量的成長會快過
仿真腦的經濟成長,
05:26
so that means手段 wages工資 fall秋季 down
to emEM subsistence生活 levels水平.
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那意味著薪資水平會落到
仿真腦能維持生計的水平。
05:29
That means手段 emsEMS have to be working加工
most of the time.
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那意味著仿真腦
大部份的時間得要工作。
05:32
So that means手段
this is what emsEMS usually平時 see:
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那意味著仿真腦通常看見的是這個:
05:35
beautiful美麗 and luxurious豪華, but desks書桌 --
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美麗又奢華的,辦公桌──
05:38
they're working加工 most of the time.
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它們大部份的時間都在工作。
05:40
Now, a subsistence生活 wage工資 scenario腳本,
you might威力 think, is exotic異國情調 and strange奇怪,
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你可能會認為,這種勉強糊口的
工資的情景是奇異並奇怪的,
05:44
but it's actually其實 the usual通常 case案件
in human人的 history歷史,
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但這是人類歷史上常見的情況,
05:46
and it's how pretty漂亮 much
all wild野生 animals動物 have ever lived生活,
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這基本是所有野生動物的生活方式,
05:49
so we know what humans人類 do
in this situation情況.
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所以我們知道人類
在這種情況下會做什麼。
05:51
Humans人類 basically基本上 do
what it takes to survive生存,
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人類基本上會為了生存而行動,
05:54
and this is what lets讓我們 me say
so much about the emEM world世界.
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這就是讓我說了這麽多
關於仿真腦世界的原因。
05:58
When creatures生物 are rich豐富, like you,
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當生物富有時,就像你們一樣,
06:01
you have to know a lot
about what they want
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你得先要知道他們想要什麼,
06:03
to figure數字 out what they do.
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才能猜出他們會做什麼。
06:04
When creatures生物 are poor較差的,
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當生物很貧窮時,
06:05
you know that they mostly大多 do
what it takes to survive生存.
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你知道的,他們會做的
就只是生存下來。
06:08
So we've我們已經 been talking about the emEM world世界
from the point of view視圖 of the emsEMS --
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我們已經從仿真腦的觀點
談了仿真腦的世界。
06:12
now, let's step back
and look at their whole整個 world世界.
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現在我們退後一步,
來看看它們的整個世界。
第一,仿真腦世界的成長速度
比我們的世界快很多,
06:14
First, the emEM world世界 grows成長
much faster更快 than ours我們的,
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06:18
roughly大致 a hundred times faster更快.
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大約快上一百倍。
06:20
So the amount of change更改
we would experience經驗 in a century世紀 or two,
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我們經歷了一、兩個世紀的改變,
06:23
they would experience經驗 in a year or two.
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它們在一、兩年內就能完成。
06:25
And I'm not really willing願意 to project項目
this age年齡 much beyond that,
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我其實不想預測更遙遠的未來,
因為,理論上到那時就會有
其它事發生,我們無法知道。
06:28
because plausibly振振有詞 by then something else其他
will happen發生, I don't know what.
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第二,典型的仿真腦運作得更快,
06:32
Second第二, the typical典型 emulation仿真
runs運行 even faster更快,
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06:34
roughly大致 a thousand times human人的 speed速度.
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大約是人類的一千倍。
06:37
So for them, they experience經驗
thousands數千 of years年份 in this year or two,
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所以,對它們而言,它們會在
這一、兩年就經歷我們的數千年,
06:42
and for them, the world世界 around them
is actually其實 changing改變 more slowly慢慢地
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相對於你對你的周圍世界的感覺,
06:45
than your world世界 seems似乎 to change更改 for you.
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它們會覺得它們周圍的
世界改變很緩慢。
06:48
Third第三, emsEMS are crammed臨時抱佛腳 together一起
in a small number of very dense稠密 cities城市.
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第三,仿真腦會擠在
少數幾個高密度城市中。
06:52
This is not only how they see
themselves他們自己 in virtual虛擬 reality現實,
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這不只是它們在虛擬實境中
看到的自身狀況,
06:56
it's also how they actually其實 are
physically物理 crammed臨時抱佛腳 together一起.
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它們的實體也確實是
擠在同一個地方的。
06:59
So at emEM speeds速度, physical物理 travel旅行
feels感覺 really painfully痛苦 slow,
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以仿真腦速度來看,
實體旅行是要命的緩慢,
07:03
so most emEM cities城市 are self-sufficient自給,
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所以大部份的仿真腦城市
是自給自足的,
07:05
most war戰爭 is cyber網絡 war戰爭,
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大部份的戰爭是網路戰爭,
07:07
and most of the rest休息 of the earth地球
away from the emEM cities城市
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而地球上遠離
仿真腦城市的其它地方,
07:10
is left to the humans人類, because the emsEMS
really aren't that interested有興趣 in it.
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就留給人類,因為仿真腦
對這些地方真的不感興趣。
07:14
Speaking請講 of humans人類,
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說到人類,
07:15
you were wanting希望 to hear about that.
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你會想要聽到這個。
07:17
Humans人類 must必須 retire退休, at once一旦, for good.
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人類必須要退休,
一旦發生了,你就好好退休吧。
07:22
They just can't compete競爭.
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人類無法和仿真腦競爭。
07:24
Now, humans人類 start開始 out owning擁有
all of the capital首都 in this world世界.
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一開始,人類擁有
這個世界上所有的資本。
07:28
The economy經濟 grows成長 very fast快速,
their wealth財富 grows成長 very fast快速.
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經濟成長非常快,
他們的財富也成長非常快。
07:30
Humans人類 get rich豐富, collectively.
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整體而言,人類變富有了。
07:34
As you may可能 know, most humans人類 today今天
don't actually其實 own擁有 that much
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如你所知,現今大部份人
除了擁有工作能力外,
07:37
besides除了 their ability能力 to work,
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其它其實擁有的並不多。
07:39
so between之間 now and then,
they need to acquire獲得 sufficient足夠 assets資產,
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所以從現在起到那時後,
他們需要獲得足夠的資產、
07:42
insurance保險 or sharing分享 arrangements安排,
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準備保險或股權的配置,
07:44
or they may可能 starve餓死.
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不然他們就要挨餓了。
07:46
I highly高度 recommend推薦 avoiding避免 this outcome結果.
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我強烈建議要避免這個結果。
07:48
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
07:50
Now, you might威力 wonder奇蹟,
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你們可能會好奇,
07:51
why would emsEMS let humans人類 exist存在?
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為什麼仿真腦要讓人類存在?
07:53
Why not kill them, take their stuff東東?
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為什麼不殺了人類,
拿走他們的東西?
07:55
But notice注意 we have many許多
unproductive非生產性 retirees退休人員 around us today今天,
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別忘了,現今我們身邊就有很多
沒有生產力的退休者,
07:58
and we don't kill them
and take their stuff東東.
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我們不會殺了他們,拿他們的東西。
08:00
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
08:02
In part部分, that's because it would disrupt破壞
the institutions機構 we share分享 with them.
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部份原因是因為這樣會使得
我們與他們共同的制度被瓦解。
08:07
Other groups would wonder奇蹟 who's誰是 next下一個,
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其他族群就會想,誰會下一個遭殃?
08:09
so plausibly振振有詞, emsEMS may可能 well let humans人類
retire退休 in peace和平 during the age年齡 of emEM.
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所以仿真腦比較合理的做法,是讓
人類在仿真腦的時代能平靜地退休。
08:14
You should worry擔心 more that
the age年齡 of emEM only lasts持續 a year or two
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你們比較該擔心的是,
仿真腦的時代可能只有一、兩年,
而你卻不知道接下來會發生什麼事。
08:17
and you don't know what happens發生 next下一個.
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08:21
Ems埃姆斯 are very much like humans人類,
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仿真腦和人類很像,
08:23
but they are not like the typical典型 human人的.
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但它們不像典型的人類。
08:26
The typical典型 emEM is a copy複製
of the few少數 hundred most productive生產的 humans人類.
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典型的仿真腦是
幾百個最有生產力的人的翻版。
08:33
So in fact事實, they are as elite原種,
compared相比 to the typical典型 human人的,
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所以事實上,
與一般人相比它們是菁英,
08:36
as the typical典型 billionaire億萬富翁,
Nobel諾貝爾 Prize winner優勝者,
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它們是典型的億萬富翁、
諾貝爾獎得主、
08:39
Olympic奧林匹克 gold medalist得主, head of state.
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奧運金牌得主、國家元首。
08:42
Ems埃姆斯 look on humans人類
perhaps也許 with nostalgia懷舊之情 and gratitude感謝,
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仿真腦在看人類時,可能是帶著
懷舊之情和感激之情的,
08:46
but not so much respect尊重,
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但不會帶有很多尊重,
08:48
which哪一個 is, if you think about it,
how you think about your ancestors祖先.
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就像你仔細想想,
你是怎麽看待你的祖先的。
08:51
We know many許多 things about how humans人類
differ不同 in terms條款 of productivity生產率.
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我們知道許多關於
不同個體在生產力方面的不同之處。
08:54
We can just use those
to predict預測 features特徵 of emsEMS --
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我們可以用那些知識
來預測仿真腦的特徵──
08:57
for example, they tend趨向 to be smart聰明,
conscientious有良心, hard-working用功,
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比如,它們往往是
聰明的、認真的、努力的、
09:00
married已婚, religious宗教, middle-aged中年.
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已婚的、有宗教信仰的、中年的。
09:02
These are features特徵 of emsEMS.
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這些是仿真腦的特點。
09:04
EmEM world世界 also contains包含 enormous巨大 variety品種.
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仿真腦世界也有很高的多樣性。
09:06
Not only does it continue繼續 on with most
of the kinds of variety品種 that humans人類 do,
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它不只延續了人類的各種多樣性,
09:10
including包含 variety品種 of industry行業
and profession職業,
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包括產業及職業的多樣性,
09:12
they also have many許多 new kinds of variety品種,
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它們也在很多新型特點上
體現了多樣性,
09:15
and one of the most important重要
is mind心神 speed速度.
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最重要的之一就是思維速度。
09:17
Ems埃姆斯 can plausibly振振有詞 go from human人的 speed速度
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仿真腦的速度,
慢可以慢到與人類一樣的速度
09:21
up to a million百萬 times
faster更快 than human人的 speed速度,
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快可以快到比人類快
幾百萬倍的速度,
09:24
and down to a billion十億 times
slower比較慢 than human人的 speed速度.
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往下還可以比人類慢
十億倍的速度。
09:28
Faster更快 emsEMS tend趨向 to have
markers標記 of high status狀態.
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更快的仿真腦往往具有較高的地位。
09:31
They embody體現 more wealth財富.
They win贏得 arguments參數.
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它們有比較多的財富。
它們能在爭論中勝出。
09:33
They sit at premium額外費用 locations地點.
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它們位於金字塔頂端。
09:34
Slower比較慢 emsEMS are mostly大多 retirees退休人員,
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比較慢的仿真腦多半是已退休的,
09:36
and they are like the ghosts
of our literature文學.
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它們就像是我們小說中看到的鬼魂。
09:39
If you recall召回, ghosts are all around us --
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如果你有注意到,
書中的鬼魂都在我們周圍,
09:41
you can interact相互作用 with them
if you pay工資 the price價錢.
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如果你願意付出代價,
就可以與它們互動。
09:43
But they don't know much,
they can't influence影響 much,
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但它們知道的不多,
它們的影響不大,
09:45
and they're obsessed痴迷 with the past過去,
so what's the point?
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且它們沉陷在過去中,
但那有什麼意義?
09:48
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
09:49
Ems埃姆斯 also have more variety品種
in the structure結構體 of their lives生活.
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仿真腦的人生結構
也有較高的多樣性。
09:52
This is your life: you start開始
and you end結束, really simple簡單.
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這是你的人生:
開始、結束就這麼簡單。
09:55
This is the life of an emEM,
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這是仿真腦的人生,
09:57
who every一切 day splits拆分 off
some short-term短期 copies副本
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每天都會分裂出一些短暫的複製品,
09:59
to do short-term短期 tasks任務 and then end結束.
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用來完成短期任務,然後結束。
10:01
We'll talk more about
those short term術語 versions版本 in a moment時刻,
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我們稍後再討論這些短期版本,
10:05
but they are much more efficient高效
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但是它們的效率更高,
10:07
because they don't have to rest休息
for the next下一個 day.
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因為它們不需要在第二天休息。
這個仿真腦是比較機會主義者的。
10:09
This emEM is more opportunistic機會主義的.
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10:11
They make more copies副本 of themselves他們自己
when there's more demand需求 for that.
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當有需要時,它們就會
把自己複製更多份。
10:14
They don't know which哪一個 way
the future's期貨 going.
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它們不知道未來的走向。
10:16
This is an emEM designer設計師,
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這是一個仿真腦設計師,
10:17
who conceives of a large system系統
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它構想了一個很大的系統,
10:19
and then breaks休息 recursively遞歸 into copies副本
who elaborate闡述 that,
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然後再遞歸地分裂成複製品
來詳細說明它的構想,
10:22
so emsEMS can implement實行
larger, more coherent相干 designs設計.
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因此,仿真腦可以實現更大、
更連貫的設計。
10:26
This an emulation仿真 plumber水管工人
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這是個仿真腦世界裡的水管工,
10:27
who remembers記得 that every一切 day,
for the last 20 years年份,
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它記得過去二十年的每一天,
10:30
they only ever worked工作
two hours小時 a day, a life of leisure閒暇.
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它們一天只工作兩小時,
很悠閒的人生。
10:33
But what really happened發生 is,
every一切 day they had a thousand copies副本,
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但實情是,它們每天都得
複製出數千個複製品,
10:36
each of whom did a two-hour兩小時 plumbing水暖 job工作,
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每個複製品得做兩個小時的工作,
10:38
and only one of them
went on to the next下一個 day.
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它們之中只有一個
第二天會接著工作。
客觀上,它們 99% 的時間
都在努力工作。
10:40
Objectively客觀, they're working加工
well over 99 percent百分 of the time.
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主觀上,它們還記得
甚麼是悠閑的生活。
10:43
Subjectively主觀, they remember記得
a life of leisure閒暇.
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10:45
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
10:46
This, again, is you.
You start開始 and you end結束.
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同樣的,這還是你。
你開始,你結束。
10:48
This could be you
if at the start開始 of party派對,
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這可能是你,如果在派對開始時,
10:50
you took a drug藥物 that meant意味著
you would not remember記得 that party派對
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你吃了顆藥,
它會讓你在那天之後再也
10:53
ever after that day.
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想不起那場派對。
10:55
Some people do this, I'm told.
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據我所知,有些人會這樣做。
10:57
Toward the end結束 of the party派對,
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到派對尾聲時,
10:59
will you say to yourself你自己,
"I'm about to die, this is terrible可怕.
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我要問你的是,你是否會告訴自己:
「我快要死了,這太可怕了。
11:02
That person tomorrow明天 isn't me,
because they won't慣於 remember記得 what I do."
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明天的那個我其實不是我,
因為他不會記得我做過的事。」
11:05
Or you could say, "I will go on tomorrow明天.
I just won't慣於 remember記得 what I did."
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或者說:「明天,我還是我,
只是不記得我過去做了什麽。」
11:09
This is an emEM who splits拆分 off
a short-term短期 copy複製
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這是分裂出短期複製品的仿真腦,
11:12
to do a short-term短期 task任務 and then end結束.
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用來做短期工作,然後就結束。
11:13
They have the same相同 two
attitude態度 possibilities可能性.
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它們同樣也有這兩種可能的態度。
11:16
They can say, "I'm a new short-term短期
creature生物 with a short life. I hate討厭 this."
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它們會說:「我是新的短期生物,
生命很短。我討厭這樣。」
或「我是更大生物的一部份,
只是記不得是哪一部份。」
11:19
Or "I'm a part部分 of a larger creature生物
who won't慣於 remember記得 this part部分."
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我預測它們會採用第二種態度,
11:23
I predict預測 they'll他們會 have
that second第二 attitude態度,
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不是因為哲學正確性,而是因為
那種態度能幫助它們相處。
11:25
not because it's philosophically哲學 correct正確,
but because it helps幫助 them get along沿.
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11:28
Today今天, if the president主席 says
we must必須 invade入侵 Iraq伊拉克,
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如果今天總統說
我們必須要侵略伊拉克,
11:31
and you say, "Why?"
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你說:「為什麼?」
11:32
and they say, "State secret秘密,"
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他們說:「國家機密。」
11:33
you're not sure if you can trust相信 them,
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你不確定是否可以信任他們,
但對仿真腦而言,總統的複製品和
你的複製品可以進入一個保險箱,
11:35
but for emsEMS, a copy複製 of the president主席
and a copy複製 of you can go inside a safe安全,
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11:39
explain說明 all their secret秘密 reasons原因,
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解釋它們所有的秘密原因,
11:40
and then one bit comes out
from your copy複製 to yourself你自己,
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然後有一個位元訊號
從你的複製品回來告知你,
11:43
telling告訴 you if you were convinced相信.
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讓你知道你是否有被說服。
11:45
So now you can know
there is a good reason原因.
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這樣你就會知道有個好理由存在。
11:47
I know you guys are all eager急於
to evaluate評估 this world世界.
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我知道你們都很渴望評估那個世界。
11:50
You're eager急於 to decide決定
if you love it or hate討厭 it.
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你想盡快決定
你是否喜歡它或討厭它。
11:52
But think: your ancestors祖先
from thousands數千 of years年份 ago
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但想想:你數千年前的祖先
11:55
would have loved喜愛 or hated your world世界
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會根據他們聽聞的最初的幾件事,
11:57
based基於 on the first few少數 things
they heard聽說 about it,
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來選擇愛或恨你現在這個世界嗎?
因為你的世界聽起來是很奇怪的。
11:59
because your world世界
is really just weird奇怪的.
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12:01
So before judging判斷 a strange奇怪 future未來 world世界,
you should really learn學習 a lot about it,
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所以在評斷一個奇怪的
未來世界之前,
你應該好好學習它,
也許讀一本關於它的書,
12:05
maybe read a whole整個 book about it,
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12:07
and then, if you don't like it,
work to change更改 it.
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然後,如果你不喜歡它,
就努力去改變它。
12:09
Thank you.
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謝謝。
12:10
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Lilian Chiu
Reviewed by Yi-Fan Yu

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robin Hanson - Futurist, social scientist
Does humanity have a future as uploaded minds? In his work, Robin Hanson asks this and other extra-large questions.

Why you should listen

In his book, The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth, Robin Hanson re-imagines humanity's role as our tech becomes smarter. A pioneer in prediction markets, also known as information markets and idea futures, Hanson has been known since the 1980s for taking the very very long view on topics as varied as (a selected list) spatial product competition, health incentive contracts, group insurance, product bans, evolutionary psychology and bioethics of health care, voter information incentives, incentives to fake expertise, Bayesian classification, agreeing to disagree, self-deception in disagreement, probability elicitation, wiretaps, image reconstruction, the history of science prizes, reversible computation, the origin of life, the survival of humanity, very long term economic growth, growth given machine intelligence and interstellar colonization.

Meanwhile, he has developed new technologies for conditional, combinatorial and intermediated trading, and he studied insider trading, manipulation and other foul play. Hanson is associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. His next book is The Elephant in the Brain, co-authored with Kevin Simler, due in 2018.

More profile about the speaker
Robin Hanson | Speaker | TED.com