TED2009
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: A prediction for the future of Iran
布鲁斯·布恩诺·德·梅斯奎塔预测伊朗局势的未来
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布鲁斯·布恩诺·德·梅斯奎塔利用数学分析在预测一些人类突发事件，像战争，政权转变，巴勒斯坦起义等等(通常正确)。进过一番精炼的解释他预测的方法，梅斯奎塔对伊朗局势做出了三个预言。
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita - Political scientist
A consultant to the CIA and the Department of Defense, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has built an intricate computer model that can predict the outcomes of international conflicts with bewildering accuracy. Full bio
A consultant to the CIA and the Department of Defense, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has built an intricate computer model that can predict the outcomes of international conflicts with bewildering accuracy. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
What I'm going to try to do is explain to you
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我将很快的向大家解释一下
00:21
quickly how to predict,
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我们怎样预测未来
00:23
and illustrate it with some predictions
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并且向大家展示一下
00:25
about what Iran is going to do in the next couple of years.
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我们对未来几年伊朗局势所做出的一些预测
00:30
In order to predict effectively,
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为了做出准确的预测
00:33
we need to use science.
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我们需要利用科学
00:36
And the reason that we need to use science
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而利用科学的原因是
00:39
is because then we can reproduce what we're doing;
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我们可以重复验证所得到的结果
00:41
it's not just wisdom or guesswork.
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这就不是智者的预言或者瞎猜
00:44
And if we can predict,
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如果我们可以预测未来
00:47
then we can engineer the future.
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我们就可以操纵未来
00:49
So if you are concerned to influence energy policy,
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换言之，当你想去左右国家能源政策的时候
00:53
or you are concerned to influence national security policy,
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或者，当你想去影响国防政策
00:58
or health policy, or education,
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医疗政策或教育政策的时候
01:01
science -- and a particular branch of science -- is a way to do it,
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科学，其中一门科学将会为你指明未来
01:05
not the way we've been doing it,
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并不是靠我们所使用的方法
01:07
which is seat-of-the-pants wisdom.
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凭借经验或直觉去预言
01:09
Now before I get into how to do it
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现在，在我进入主题之前
01:11
let me give you a little truth in advertising,
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我先给大家一些事先声明，
01:14
because I'm not engaged in the business of magic.
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我不是算命的
01:17
There are lots of thing that the approach I take can predict,
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有一些东西我可以预测
01:21
and there are some that it can't.
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有一些我不能
01:23
It can predict complex negotiations
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我可以预测一些大型谈判
01:26
or situations involving coercion --
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牵涉强制力的一些情景
01:29
that is in essence everything that has to do with politics,
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总的来说，那就是所有和政治有关的事情
01:33
much of what has to do with business,
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也包括一部份商业方面的
01:35
but sorry, if you're looking to speculate in the stock market,
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但如果你想在股市抄底，那实在不好意思
01:41
I don't predict stock markets -- OK,
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我确实不能预测股票市场，不过，好吧
01:43
it's not going up any time really soon.
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反正最近是绝对不可能涨上去的
01:46
But I'm not engaged in doing that.
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但那是我不会预测的
01:49
I'm not engaged in predicting random number generators.
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我也不会去预测随机生成的数字
01:52
I actually get phone calls from people
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有人曾今打电话问我
01:54
who want to know what lottery numbers are going to win.
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下期中奖彩票号码是多少
01:57
I don't have a clue.
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那我爱莫能助。
02:00
I engage in the use of game theory, game theory is a branch of mathematics
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我所研究的是博弈论的应用，博弈论是数学的一个分支
02:04
and that means, sorry, that even in the study of politics,
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也就是说，对不起（文科生们），数学已经进入了
02:08
math has come into the picture.
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政治学的研究领域
02:11
We can no longer pretend that we just speculate about politics,
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我们现在不能被动的盲目的去推测政治
02:15
we need to look at this in a rigorous way.
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我们应该采取科学严谨的方法。
02:18
Now, what is game theory about?
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那，到底什么是博弈论?
02:21
It assumes that people are looking out for what's good for them.
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博弈论有一个假设，那就是人人为己
02:26
That doesn't seem terribly shocking --
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这并不是一个让人吃惊的假设
02:28
although it's controversial for a lot of people --
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尽管有很多人认为人人都是自私自利
02:30
that we are self-interested.
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是有争议的命题
02:34
In order to look out for what's best for them
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为了设法得到对自己最好的东西
02:36
or what they think is best for them,
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或者是他们所认定的对自己最好的东西
02:38
people have values -- they identify what they want, and what they don't want.
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人们会通过他们不同的价值观，来识别他们所想要的和所憎恨的
02:42
And they have beliefs about what other people want,
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而且，他们对别人想要什么，不想要什么
02:45
and what other people don't want, how much power other people have,
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别人有多少势力，他们能拿走多少你想要的
02:48
how much those people could get in the way of whatever it is that you want.
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保留他们自己的观点
02:52
And they face limitations, constraints,
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他们会遇到一些条件限制，约束
02:56
they may be weak, they may be located in the wrong part of the world,
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也许他们十分的不起眼，也许他们在不应在的一些地方
02:59
they may be Einstein, stuck away farming
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他们可能是爱因斯坦，但是被可能被困在
03:02
someplace in a rural village in India not being noticed,
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印度的某个村落在种田
03:06
as was the case for Ramanujan for a long time,
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就像拉马努金一样
03:09
a great mathematician but nobody noticed.
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一个很少人关注的印度天才数学家
03:12
Now who is rational?
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那，谁是理性的
03:14
A lot of people are worried about what is rationality about?
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很多人都在冥想到底什么是理性的
03:17
You know, what if people are rational?
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人人都是理性的
03:19
Mother Theresa, she was rational.
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特蕾莎修女，她是理性的
03:22
Terrorists, they're rational.
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恐怖分子，他们也是理性
03:26
Pretty much everybody is rational.
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绝大多数人都是理性的
03:29
I think there are only two exceptions that I'm aware of --
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我只知道两种例外情况
03:32
two-year-olds, they are not rational,
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两岁大的孩子，他们不是理性的
03:34
they have very fickle preferences,
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他们想要的东西随时都在变
03:37
they switch what they think all the time,
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他们的思维方式也在不停的变化
03:39
and schizophrenics are probably not rational,
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精神分裂症患者也不是理性的
03:42
but pretty much everybody else is rational.
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但除了以上两者以外，其他所有人都是理性的
03:44
That is, they are just trying to do
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所谓理性，那就是人们试着去做
03:46
what they think is in their own best interest.
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他们认为对他们自己最有利的事情
03:51
Now in order to work out what people are going to do
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现在，为了预测人们将要做什么
03:53
to pursue their interests,
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来获取他们的个人利益
03:55
we have to think about who has influence in the world.
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我们研究那些有影响力的人物
03:57
If you're trying to influence corporations to change their behavior,
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如果，你想去左右一些企业的行为
04:02
with regard to producing pollutants,
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例如，减少他们污染物的排放量
04:05
one approach, the common approach,
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有一个方法，一种常见的方法
04:07
is to exhort them to be better,
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那就是给他们一些忠告
04:09
to explain to them what damage they're doing to the planet.
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告诉他们这些污染物正在破坏我们的地球
04:12
And many of you may have noticed that doesn't have
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你会发现这些手段的效果
04:14
as big an effect, as perhaps you would like it to have.
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并没有你所想象中的那么大
04:18
But if you show them that it's in their interest,
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但是，如果你告诉他们环保符合他们的利益
04:21
then they're responsive.
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他们就会有所回应
04:23
So, we have to work out who influences problems.
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所以，我们就应该找出谁是有影响力的人物。
04:26
If we're looking at Iran, the president of the United States
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如果我们研究伊朗，我们就会发现
04:28
we would like to think, may have some influence --
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美国总统会有一定的影响力
04:31
certainly the president in Iran has some influence --
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当然伊朗的总统也有一定的影响力
04:35
but we make a mistake if we just pay attention
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但我们会犯一个错误
04:38
to the person at the top of the power ladder
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当我们只关心决策层的领导
04:41
because that person doesn't know much about Iran,
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因为那个领导人不一定理解伊朗
04:44
or about energy policy,
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抑或能源政策
04:46
or about health care,
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或者医疗政策
04:48
or about any particular policy.
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甚至有可能不了解任何的政策
04:50
That person surrounds himself or herself with advisers.
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那个领导人的周围一定还有很多的顾问
04:55
If we're talking about national security problems,
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若是我们在讨论国家安全问题
04:57
maybe it's the Secretary of State,
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那个顾问可能是国务卿
04:59
maybe it's the Secretary of Defense,
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可能是国防部长
05:01
the Director of National Intelligence,
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情报部门的主任
05:03
maybe the ambassador to the United Nations, or somebody else
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或者是驻联合国的大使，或是决策层自选的
05:05
who they think is going to know more about the particular problem.
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一些相关问题专家。
05:09
But let's face it, the Secretary of State doesn't know much about Iran.
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但现实是，国务卿也不一定十分了解伊朗
05:12
The secretary of defense doesn't know much about Iran.
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国防部长不一定十分了解伊朗
05:15
Each of those people in turn
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这些顾问们，同样的
05:18
has advisers who advise them,
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他们也被更多的顾问所包围着
05:20
so they can advise the president.
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这样他们才能向总统进谏
05:23
There are lots of people shaping decisions
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所以，是许多人影响做出决策
05:26
and so if we want to predict correctly
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也就是说，如果我们想正确的做出预测
05:28
we have to pay attention to everybody
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我们必须关注影响决策结果
05:31
who is trying to shape the outcome,
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的每一个人
05:33
not just the people at the pinnacle
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并不仅仅是在决策机构
05:36
of the decision-making pyramid.
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金字塔尖上的人
05:40
Unfortunately, a lot of times we don't do that.
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但不幸的是，大多数时候我们没有这么做
05:42
There's a good reason that we don't do that,
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我们有很好的理由不这样做，
05:44
and there's a good reason that using game theory and computers,
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我们也有好的理由去利用博弈论和电脑
05:47
we can overcome the limitation
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来克服仅仅关注在决策层的几个人
05:50
of just looking at a few people.
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而做出预测的局限性
05:52
Imagine a problem with just five decision-makers.
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让我们来假想一个仅有五个决策人的情况。
05:56
Imagine for example
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比如说
05:58
that Sally over here,
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Sally在那里
06:00
wants to know what Harry, and Jane,
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她想知道Harry, Jane, George和Frank
06:03
and George and Frank are thinking,
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在想些什么
06:06
and sends messages to those people.
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她向其他人提供了一些信息
06:08
Sally's giving her opinion to them,
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Sally在给其他人传达她的观点
06:10
and they're giving their opinion to Sally.
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其他人把他们的观点告诉给她
06:13
But Sally also wants to know
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但Sally还想知道
06:15
what Harry is saying to these three,
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Harry在给其他三个人说了些什么
06:18
and what they're saying to Harry.
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其他三个人有给Harry说了些什么
06:20
And Harry wants to know
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然后Harry还想知道
06:22
what each of those people are saying to each other, and so on,
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其他人有在说些什么，以此类推
06:25
and Sally would like to know what Harry thinks those people are saying.
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Sally还想知道Harry认为其他人在说些什么
06:28
That's a complicated problem; that's a lot to know.
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这就变成了一个很复杂的问题，太多的信息
06:31
With five decision-makers
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当有五个决策人的时候
06:34
there are a lot of linkages --
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就有很多的联系信息
06:36
120, as a matter of fact,
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事实上有120个
06:38
if you remember your factorials.
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如果你记得5的阶乘
06:40
Five factorial is 120.
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5的阶乘是120
06:42
Now you may be surprised to know
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但也许出乎你的意外
06:44
that smart people can keep 120 things straight
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一个聪明的人可以在大脑里
06:47
in their head.
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搞清楚120事情的来龙去脉
06:49
Suppose we double the number of influencers
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但如果我们把决策人的数量翻一倍
06:51
from five to 10.
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从五人到十人
06:53
Does that mean we've doubled the number of pieces of information
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那我们是不是简单的关系的数量
06:57
we need to know, from 120 to 240?
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也乘以2， 从120到240呢？
06:59
No. How about 10 times?
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不？十倍？
07:01
To 1,200? No.
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1200？不
07:04
We've increased it to 3.6 million.
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我们事实上增加到了三百六十万条信息
07:07
Nobody can keep that straight in their head.
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没人能够把这弄清楚
07:09
But computers,
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但是电脑可以
07:12
they can. They don't need coffee breaks,
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它们可以。它们不用停下来喝咖啡
07:15
they don't need vacations,
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它们不会放假
07:18
they don't need to go to sleep at night,
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它们晚上不用睡觉
07:20
they don't ask for raises either.
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他们也不会要求加薪
07:23
They can keep this information straight
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它们能够理清楚所有的信息
07:25
and that means that we can process the information.
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也就是说，我们可以利用它们来处理信息
07:28
So I'm going to talk to you about how to process it,
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接下来，我会告诉你们怎样来处理
07:30
and I'm going to give you some examples out of Iran,
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然后我会向你们展示一下关于伊朗的一些预测
07:33
and you're going to be wondering,
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你也许会纳闷儿了
07:35
"Why should we listen to this guy?
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我们凭什么相信这个家伙？
07:37
Why should we believe what he's saying?"
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为什么我们要听信他所说的？
07:40
So I'm going to show you a factoid.
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所以，我先让你们看个数据
07:44
This is an assessment by the Central Intelligence Agency
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这是中情局提供的一份评估报告
07:47
of the percentage of time
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关于我所提到的这个模型
07:49
that the model I'm talking about
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所做出的一些正确预测
07:51
is right in predicting things whose outcome is not yet known,
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反而是提供数据的专家
07:54
when the experts who provided the data inputs
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做出了错误的预测
07:58
got it wrong.
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错误的预测
08:00
That's not my claim, that's a CIA claim -- you can read it,
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我不是自卖自夸，这是中情局的东西，你可以读到的
08:03
it was declassified a while ago. You can read it in a volume edited by
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这报告在前一阵子解的密。你可以在
08:06
H. Bradford Westerfield, Yale University Press.
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H. Bradford Westerfield编撰的一本书里读到，耶鲁大学出版社
08:09
So, what do we need to know
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所以，我们需要什么样的信息
08:11
in order to predict?
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来做出预测呢？
08:13
You may be surprised to find out we don't need to know very much.
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也许出乎你的意料之外，我们不需要太多的东西
08:16
We do need to know who has a stake
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我们需要知道的是：哪些人有利害关系
08:19
in trying to shape the outcome of a decision.
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并试图左右决策。
08:24
We need to know what they say they want,
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我们需要知道，他们口头上说的目标是什么
08:27
not what they want in their heart of hearts,
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不一定是他们真正心里所想的目标
08:30
not what they think they can get,
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不一定是他们认为他们能够得到的
08:32
but what they say they want, because that is a strategically chosen position,
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而是挂在嘴边的目的，因为那是一个策略性姿态
08:35
and we can work backwards from that
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我们可以反过来推测，到底什么是
08:37
to draw inferences about important features of their decision-making.
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真正的左右他们决策的重点。
08:41
We need to know how focused they are
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我们还需要知道，对于面临的问题
08:43
on the problem at hand.
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他们的关切程度有多少。
08:45
That is, how willing are they to drop what they're doing when the issue comes up,
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也就是说，当争议出现时，他们有多情愿放弃手头的东西
08:48
and attend to it instead of something else that's on their plate --
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并且注意这些而不是盘子里的其他东西
08:52
how big a deal is it to them?
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这些东西对他们的重要程度是多少？
08:54
And how much clout could they bring to bear
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我们还需知道 对这件事情到底他们能有多大的影响力
08:57
if they chose to engage on the issue?
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如果他们选择介入议题。
09:02
If we know those things
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如果我们了解到了这些
09:04
we can predict their behavior by assuming that everybody
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我们假设决策人都十分关心
09:07
cares about two things on any decision.
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决策的两个东西（“名“与“利”），从而预测他们会做出的决策。
09:12
They care about the outcome. They'd like an outcome as close to
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他们重视结果，并尽可能的把最终决策
09:14
what they are interested in as possible.
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拉向对自己有利的方向
09:17
They're careerists, they also care about getting credit --
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这些决策人也是干事业的，他们关心自己的信誉
09:20
there's ego involvement,
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成就感是一个因素
09:22
they want to be seen as important in shaping the outcome,
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他们希望别人把他们看成促成决策结果的重要人物
09:26
or as important, if it's their druthers, to block an outcome.
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或者，成为阻碍决策结果的产生的重要人物。
09:31
And so we have to figure out how they balance those two things.
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所以，我们还要找到他们名利双收的平衡点
09:34
Different people trade off
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对于最终决策和成就感
09:36
between standing by their outcome,
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人人都有不一样的权衡
09:39
faithfully holding to it, going down in a blaze of glory,
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有的人信守承诺，虔诚的追求荣光，
09:42
or giving it up, putting their finger in the wind,
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有的不管如何，见风使舵，
09:45
and doing whatever they think is going to be a winning position.
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朝着自认获利方向行动。
09:48
Most people fall in between, and if we can work out where they fall
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有的人站在在中间。如果我们知道他们的态度
09:51
we can work out how to negotiate with them
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我们就可以对他做相应的工作
09:53
to change their behavior.
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来改变他的行为
09:55
So with just that little bit of input
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所以，利用那些信息
09:58
we can work out what the choices are that people have,
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我们可以找出决策者们有什么样的选择
10:01
what the chances are that they're willing to take,
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他们愿意冒多大的风险
10:04
what they're after, what they value, what they want,
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他们想要什么，他们的价值观，他们的目的
10:07
and what they believe about other people.
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和他们认为别人想要什么
10:10
You might notice what we don't need to know:
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你可能注意到了有一些信息是不重要的
10:14
there's no history in here.
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我们不需要知道过去的历史
10:16
How they got to where they are
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他们怎么回到今天这个地步
10:18
may be important in shaping the input information,
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也许对他们做出决策很重要
10:20
but once we know where they are
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但一旦我们知道他们到了今天局势
10:22
we're worried about where they're going to be headed in the future.
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我们想知道的就是他们未来的发展方向
10:25
How they got there turns out not to be terribly critical in predicting.
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所以，今天的形势是如何形成的，在预测中并不关键
10:29
I remind you of that 90 percent accuracy rate.
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我再提醒下大家我们百分之九十的正确率
10:33
So where are we going to get this information?
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那么，我们怎样获得相关信息呢？
10:35
We can get this information
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我们通过各种渠道搜集信息
10:38
from the Internet, from The Economist,
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互联网，经济学人杂志
10:41
The Financial Times, The New York Times,
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金融时报，纽约时报
10:44
U.S. News and World Report, lots of sources like that,
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美国新闻和世界报道，还有其他一些资源
10:47
or we can get it from asking experts
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或者我们会直接去询问那些
10:49
who spend their lives studying places and problems,
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花费了毕生精力来研究该地区和问题的专家
10:52
because those experts know this information.
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因为他们有大量的信息
10:55
If they don't know, who are the people trying to influence the decision,
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如果那些专家都不知道有哪些人在影响最终决策
10:58
how much clout do they have,
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那些人有多大能耐
11:00
how much they care about this issue, and what do they say they want,
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有多关心最终结果，那些人表面上的目的
11:03
are they experts? That's what it means to be an expert,
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那他们还是什么“专家”。作为专家
11:06
that's the basic stuff an expert needs to know.
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他们就应该知道这些基础问题的答案
11:10
Alright, lets turn to Iran.
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好，现在我们转向伊朗
11:12
Let me make three important predictions --
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我会做出三个重要的预测
11:15
you can check this out, time will tell.
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我们走着瞧，时间会证明一切
11:18
What is Iran going to do about its nuclear weapons program?
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伊朗的核武器计划是怎样的？
11:26
How secure is the theocratic regime in Iran?
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伊朗政教合一的政权是否稳定？
11:29
What's its future?
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它的未来怎样？
11:31
And everybody's best friend,
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还有我们大家的朋友
11:34
Ahmadinejad. How are things going for him?
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伊朗总统内贾德。 他的下场是怎样的？
11:37
How are things going to be working out for him in the next year or two?
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他未来一两年的日子好过吗？
11:43
You take a look at this, this is not based on statistics.
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你们可以看看这个，这些不是基于统计数字
11:46
I want to be very clear here. I'm not projecting some past data into the future.
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我想明确这一点。我不是在用过去的数字来预测未来
11:51
I've taken inputs on positions and so forth,
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我把各种有影响力的人物关于些问题所占的位置
11:54
run it through a computer model
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输入一个电脑模型
11:56
that had simulated the dynamics of interaction,
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并模拟真人动态互相影响的过程
11:59
and these are the simulated dynamics,
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这就是整个模拟的动态过程
12:01
the predictions about the path of policy.
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我们对伊朗核政策路线的预测
12:04
So you can see here on the vertical axis,
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你先可以看到纵轴
12:07
I haven't shown it all the way down to zero,
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我没有一直写到零
12:09
there are lots of other options, but here I'm just showing you the prediction,
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这还有其他很多可能，但我仅仅展示了我们的预测
12:12
so I've narrowed the scale.
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我也缩小了比例
12:14
Up at the top of the axis, "Build the Bomb."
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在纵轴的最高处写着 ：制造核弹
12:17
At 130, we start somewhere above 130,
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在130这个位置，我们大概从130开始
12:21
between building a bomb, and making enough weapons-grade fuel
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那是在制造一枚核弹
12:24
so that you could build a bomb.
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和生产足够核武器原料之间
12:26
That's where, according to my analyses,
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根据我的分析，那就是
12:29
the Iranians were at the beginning of this year.
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伊朗人今年初所在的位置
12:32
And then the model makes predictions down the road.
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现在，我们的模型开是进行预测了
12:35
At 115 they would only produce enough weapons grade fuel
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在115，他们只会生产足够的核武器原料
12:39
to show that they know how, but they wouldn't build a weapon:
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以展示他们懂得怎么造，但他们不会去造
12:41
they would build a research quantity.
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他们会制造足够的原料用于科研
12:43
It would achieve some national pride,
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这样可以震震国威
12:45
but not go ahead and build a weapon.
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但不会去制造真正的核弹
12:48
And down at 100 they would build civilian nuclear energy,
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在下面100的地方，他们会制造和原料以用于核能生产
12:50
which is what they say is their objective.
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也就是他们口头上的目标
12:54
The yellow line shows us the most likely path.
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黄线告诉我们他们最有可能的路线
12:57
The yellow line includes an analysis
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这条黄线包括了
12:58
of 87 decision makers in Iran,
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87个重要的伊朗决策人
13:01
and a vast number of outside influencers
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和大量向伊朗施加压力
13:04
trying to pressure Iran into changing its behavior,
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的外国势力
13:07
various players in the United States, and Egypt,
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这包括： 美国，埃及
13:10
and Saudi Arabia, and Russia, European Union,
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沙特阿拉伯，俄罗斯，欧盟
13:12
Japan, so on and so forth.
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和日本，等等
13:14
The white line reproduces the analysis
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白线所代表的
13:18
if the international environment
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是将外国势力排除在外的伊朗政策走向
13:20
just left Iran to make its own internal decisions,
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如果国外势力不向伊朗施加压力
13:23
under its own domestic political pressures.
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让伊朗人自己做决定
13:25
That's not going to be happening,
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虽然那不会发生
13:27
but you can see that the line comes down faster
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但是你可以看到，线向下滑的更快了
13:31
if they're not put under international pressure,
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若没有国际压力的情况下
13:34
if they're allowed to pursue their own devices.
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而让他们自己发展
13:36
But in any event, by the end of this year,
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但不管怎样，在今年底
13:39
beginning of next year, we get to a stable equilibrium outcome.
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明年初，我们会有出现一个平衡
13:42
And that equilibrium is not what the United States would like,
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这个平衡不是美国想要的，
13:46
but it's probably an equilibrium that the United States can live with,
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不过这个平衡是美国可以忍受的，
13:49
and that a lot of others can live with.
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很多人都可以忍受它。
13:51
And that is that Iran will achieve that nationalist pride
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那就是，伊朗以制造足够的核武器原料
13:55
by making enough weapons-grade fuel, through research,
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获得民族自豪感，
13:59
so that they could show that they know how to make weapons-grade fuel,
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展示他们有能力制造武器级核燃料，
14:03
but not enough to actually build a bomb.
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但不够制造一枚核弹。
14:08
How is this happening?
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这是怎么会事？
14:10
Over here you can see this is the distribution
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在这里，你可以看到
14:14
of power in favor of civilian nuclear energy today,
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今天支持修建核电站的势力分布
14:19
this is what that power block is predicted to be like
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也就是说，这就是在2010年末，2011年初
14:22
by the late parts of 2010, early parts of 2011.
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这个可能性的支持者将会变成这样
14:28
Just about nobody supports research on weapons-grade fuel today,
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虽然今天没有支持生产足够核武器原料
14:32
but by 2011 that gets to be a big block,
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但在2011年，那一组人将变成最大的一块
14:35
and you put these two together, that's the controlling influence in Iran.
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把这两块放在一起，他们便成了控制伊朗的主流力量
14:39
Out here today, there are a bunch of people --
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在今天，有一群人
14:42
Ahmadinejad for example --
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比如说，内贾德先生
14:44
who would like not only to build a bomb,
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他们不仅想造一枚核弹
14:46
but test a bomb.
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还想实验一枚核弹
14:48
That power disappears completely;
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那一股势力在2011年
14:50
nobody supports that by 2011.
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将会彻底的消失
14:53
These guys are all shrinking,
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这些人在缩小
14:55
the power is all drifting out here,
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这股势力将会移向那里
14:58
so the outcome is going to be the weapons-grade fuel.
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所以结果将是他们会制造核武原料
15:01
Who are the winners and who are the losers in Iran?
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那么在伊朗到底谁是赢家和输家呢？
15:04
Take a look at these guys, they're growing in power,
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我们来看看这些人，他们的势力在增加
15:07
and by the way, this was done a while ago
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顺便说一下，这个预测做了有一阵子了
15:10
before the current economic crisis,
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在这次金融危机之前做的
15:12
and that's probably going to get steeper.
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那就是说 这条线也许会变得更陡
15:14
These folks are the moneyed interests in Iran,
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这条线代表的是金钱利益集团
15:16
the bankers, the oil people, the bazaaries.
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银行家，石油集团,商人
15:20
They are growing in political clout,
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他们的政治势力在扩大
15:23
as the mullahs are isolating themselves --
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而毛拉(伊斯兰神学家)们在孤立自己
15:26
with the exception of one group of mullahs,
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除了美国人不太了解的
15:28
who are not well known to Americans.
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一类毛拉没有这样
15:30
That's this line here, growing in power,
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他们就是这条线，他们的政治力量也在增长
15:32
these are what the Iranians call the quietists.
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这就是伊朗人所谓的“安静者”们
15:36
These are the Ayatollahs, mostly based in Qom,
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这些是在库姆(Qom)的阿亚图拉(伊斯兰教什叶派的最高宗教职衔)，
15:39
who have great clout in the religious community,
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他们在伊朗宗教团体很有势力
15:43
have been quiet on politics and are going to be getting louder,
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他们现在虽然很安静，他们的声音变得越来越大
15:46
because they see Iran going in an unhealthy direction,
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因为他们认为伊朗的发展方向不健康
15:48
a direction contrary
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是与霍梅尼(伊朗1979革命精神领袖）构想
15:50
to what Khomeini had in mind.
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的路线完全相反
15:54
Here is Mr. Ahmadinejad.
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这条线是内贾德先生
15:56
Two things to notice: he's getting weaker,
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注意两件事，一 他越来越弱
15:59
and while he gets a lot of attention in the United States,
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他在美国确实吸引了很多的注意
16:01
he is not a major player in Iran.
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但他在伊朗并不是一个主要人物
16:03
He is on the way down.
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他已在下坡路上
16:05
OK, so I'd like you to take a little away from this.
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好吧，这我们就说到这里
16:09
Everything is not predictable: the stock market
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并不是所有的事情都可以被预测，股票市场
16:11
is, at least for me, not predictable,
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至少对我来说，是不可预测的
16:14
but most complicated negotiations are predictable.
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但是绝大多数的谈判是可以预测的
16:19
Again, whether we're talking health policy, education,
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再说一次， 无论是说医疗政策，教育政策
16:23
environment, energy,
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环境，能源政策
16:26
litigation, mergers,
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诉讼，公司合并
16:28
all of these are complicated problems
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所有这些复杂的问题
16:30
that are predictable,
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都是可以预测的
16:32
that this sort of technology can be applied to.
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都是适用这种技术的。
16:36
And the reason that being able to predict those things is important,
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我们可以去预测这些事情是很重要的
16:41
is not just because you might run a hedge fund and make money off of it,
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不仅仅因为你可以开个对冲基金来挣一大笔钱
16:44
but because if you can predict what people will do,
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而是因为你可以去预测人类的行为
16:47
you can engineer what they will do.
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然后去操纵他们的行为
16:50
And if you engineer what they do you can change the world,
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如果你可以操纵行为，那你就可以改变世界
16:52
you can get a better result.
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你可以得到一个更好的结果
16:54
I would like to leave you with one thought, which is
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我最终想说的一点是
16:57
for me, the dominant theme of this gathering,
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对我来说，这次集会的宗旨就是
17:02
and is the dominant theme of this way of thinking about the world.
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也就是应该是我们看待这个世界的宗旨
17:05
When people say to you,
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当有人说
17:08
"That's impossible,"
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“这不可能”
17:10
you say back to them,
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你回应道
17:12
"When you say 'That's impossible,'
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“当你说‘不可能’的时候”
17:14
you're confused with,
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你其实在说
17:16
'I don't know how to do it.'"
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“我不知道怎样去做”
17:19
Thank you.
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谢谢
17:21
(Applause)
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鼓掌
17:25
Chris Anderson: One question for you.
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我有一个问题
17:27
That was fascinating.
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那太让人着迷了
17:30
I love that you put it out there.
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我很喜欢你刚才讲的
17:33
I got very nervous halfway through the talk though,
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你说到一半的时候，我变得很紧张
17:35
just panicking whether you'd included in your model, the possibility that
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在你的模型中， 你是否认为
17:38
putting this prediction out there might change the result.
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公布你的预测可能会改变未来结果
17:42
We've got 800 people in Tehran who watch TEDTalks.
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我们在德黑兰有800个人在观看TEDTalks
17:45
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: I've thought about that,
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我想过这个问题
17:47
and since I've done a lot of work for the intelligence community,
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因为我和情报机构进行了大量的工作
17:51
they've also pondered that.
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他们也想过这个问题
17:53
It would be a good thing if
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如果人人都投入更多的注意力
17:56
people paid more attention, took seriously,
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更加的重视它
17:59
and engaged in the same sorts of calculations,
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进行同样的计算预测
18:01
because it would change things. But it would change things in two beneficial ways.
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我们可以改变很多的事情。 益处主要是两个方面的
18:05
It would hasten how quickly people arrive at an agreement,
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它可以催促人们达成一个协议
18:11
and so it would save everybody a lot of grief and time.
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所以大家都可以省很多不必要悲伤和时间
18:14
And, it would arrive at an agreement that everybody was happy with,
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然后，这个种协议是皆大欢喜的
18:18
without having to manipulate them so much --
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不用进行太多的操控
18:21
which is basically what I do, I manipulate them.
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那就是我所做的，操控结果
18:24
So it would be a good thing.
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所以，这是一个很好的东西
18:26
CA: So you're kind of trying to say, "People of Iran, this is your destiny, lets go there."
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那么，你就是在试着说：“伊朗的人们， 这就是你的命运， 大家就这样做吧."
18:30
BBM: Well, people of Iran, this is what many of you are going to evolve to want,
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我会说，伊朗的人们， 这就是你们期望达到的结果
18:36
and we could get there a lot sooner,
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我们可以更快的达成协议
18:38
and you would suffer a lot less trouble from economic sanctions,
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你们可以少受一点经济制裁
18:41
and we would suffer a lot less fear of the use of military force on our end,
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我们可以少一点军事行动的恐惧
18:47
and the world would be a better place.
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这个世界将会变得更加美好
18:49
CA: Here's hoping they hear it that way. Thank you very much Bruce.
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我们希望他们是这样认为的。谢谢你布鲁斯
18:52
BBM: Thank you.
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谢谢
18:54
(Applause)
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鼓掌
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita - Political scientistA consultant to the CIA and the Department of Defense, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has built an intricate computer model that can predict the outcomes of international conflicts with bewildering accuracy.
Why you should listen
Every motive has a number, says Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. A specialist in foreign policy, international relations and state building, he is also a leading -- if controversial -- scholar of rational choice theory, which says math underlies the nation-scale consequences of individuals acting for personal benefit. He created forecasting technology that has, time and again, exceeded the accuracy of old-school analysis, even with thorny quarrels charged by obscure contenders, and often against odds. (One example: He called the second Intifada two years in advance.)
Bueno de Mesquita's company, Mesquita & Roundell, sells his system's predictions and analysis to influential government and private institutions that need heads-ups on policy. He teaches at NYU and is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita | Speaker | TED.com