ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Lisa Margonelli - Writer
Director of the New America Foundation Energy Policy Initiative, Lisa Margonelli writes about the global culture and economy of energy.

Why you should listen

Lisa Margonelli's work examines the promise and possibility of a post-oil world. She has studied California's opportunity to benefit from new technologies and policies, and is looking at the unexpected complications of alternative fuels and energy efficiency.

Margonelli has been published in The Atlantic, New York Times online, Washington Post, Wired and other publications. Her book about the oil supply chain, Oil On the Brain: Petroleum's Long Strange Trip to Your Tank, was recognized as one of the 25 Notable Books of 2007 by the American Library Association.

More profile about the speaker
Lisa Margonelli | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxOilSpill

Lisa Margonelli: The political chemistry of oil

莉莎 马格内莉:石油政治的化学结构

Filmed:
581,463 views

在海湾石油泄漏的余波中,莉莎 马格内莉说钻井暂缓和行政罢黜实际是一个噱头,却忽略了整个事件真正的中心:过度的石油消费。她将与我们分享一个大胆的计划--让美国逐渐摆脱对石油的依赖,让消费者直面石油的真实价值。
- Writer
Director of the New America Foundation Energy Policy Initiative, Lisa Margonelli writes about the global culture and economy of energy. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:15
So I'm going to talk to you about you about the political政治 chemistry化学 of oil spills泄漏
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我想谈谈石油泄漏的政治化学结构,
00:18
and why this is an incredibly令人难以置信 important重要,
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以及为什么这一点很重要,
00:21
long, oily油腻, hot summer夏季,
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冗长油腻的酷暑,
00:23
and why we need to keep ourselves我们自己 from getting得到 distracted分心.
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我们又为什么需要保持注意力集中。
00:26
But before I talk about the political政治 chemistry化学,
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但在我谈政治之前,
00:28
I actually其实 need to talk about the chemistry化学 of oil.
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让我先讲讲石油的化学性质。
00:31
This is a photograph照片 from when I visited参观
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这张照片摄于
00:33
Prudhoe普拉德霍 Bay in Alaska阿拉斯加州 in 2002
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二零零二年我探访阿拉斯加的普拉德霍湾时
00:36
to watch the Minerals矿产 Management管理 Service服务
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我当时是去去察看美国矿产管理局
00:38
testing测试 their ability能力
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测试他们
00:40
to burn烧伤 oil spills泄漏 in ice.
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在冰里燃烧石油泄漏的能力。
00:42
And what you see here is, you see a little bit of crude原油 oil,
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现在你可以看到一些原油,
00:44
you see some ice cubes立方体,
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你可以看到一些冰块,
00:46
and you see two sandwich三明治 baggies灯笼裤 of napalm凝固汽油.
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你还可以看到两个塑胶袋装的凝固汽油。
00:49
The napalm凝固汽油 is burning燃烧 there quite相当 nicely很好.
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那些凝固汽油燃烧得很不错。
00:51
And the thing is, is that
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这其实是说
00:53
oil is really an abstraction抽象化 for us as the American美国 consumer消费者.
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石油实际上对我们美国消费者来说是一个很抽象的东西。
00:56
We're four percent百分 of the world's世界 population人口;
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我们占世界人口的百分之四;
00:58
we use 25 percent百分 of the world's世界 oil production生产.
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我们使用世界石油生产量的百分之二十五。
01:01
And we don't really understand理解 what oil is,
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我们却并不知道什么是石油,
01:04
until直到 you check out its molecules分子,
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直到你测试了它的分子,
01:06
And you don't really understand理解 that until直到 you see this stuff东东 burn烧伤.
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直到你看到这个东西燃烧,你才会理解它。
01:09
So this is what happens发生 as that burn烧伤 gets得到 going.
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这就是燃烧时的情况。
01:11
It takes off. It's a big wooshwoosh.
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然后它“呼”的一声,就熄灭了。
01:13
I highly高度 recommend推荐 that you get a chance机会 to see crude原油 oil burn烧伤 someday日后,
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我强烈建议你找个机会去看看原油燃烧,
01:16
because you will never need to hear another另一个 poli波利 sci科幻 lecture演讲
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因为你将永远不再需要去听
01:19
on the geopolitics地缘政治 of oil again.
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关于石油的地缘政治学的政治科学讲座。
01:22
It'll它会 just bake your retinas视网膜.
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它将烘烤你的视网膜。
01:24
So there it is; the retinas视网膜 are baking.
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这就是,视网膜正在被烘烤。
01:26
Let me tell you a little bit about this chemistry化学 of oil.
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让我来给你们讲讲石油的化学成分。
01:29
Oil is a stew of hydrocarbon molecules分子.
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石油是碳氢化合物分子的混合物。
01:32
It starts启动 of with the very small ones那些,
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它从非常小的分子开始,
01:34
which哪一个 are one carbon, four hydrogen --
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是一个碳,四个氢--
01:36
that's methane甲烷 -- it just floats彩车 off.
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那是甲烷--它会漂走。
01:38
Then there's all sorts排序 of intermediate中间 ones那些 with middle中间 amounts of carbon.
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然后这些中间的分子含有中等含量的碳。
01:41
You've probably大概 heard听说 of benzene rings戒指; they're very carcinogenic致癌.
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你大概听说过苯环;它们是高度致癌的。
01:44
And it goes all the way over
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然后到了
01:46
to these big, thick, galumphygalumphy ones那些 that have hundreds数以百计 of carbons,
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这些巨大的,密集的,笨重的分子含有数百个碳,
01:48
and they have thousands数千 of hydrogens,
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它们有数千个氢,
01:50
and they have vanadium and heavy metals金属 and sulfur
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它们还含有钒,重金属和硫磺
01:52
and all kinds of craziness发狂 hanging off the sides双方 of them.
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还有各种奇怪的分子悬挂在它们的侧面。
01:54
Those are called the asphaltenes沥青质; they're an ingredient成分 in asphalt沥青.
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那些叫做沥青烯;它们是沥青的成分。
01:57
They're very important重要 in oil spills泄漏.
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它们在石油泄漏中十分的重要。
01:59
Let me tell you a little bit about
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让我来给你们讲讲这些
02:01
the chemistry化学 of oil in water.
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在水中的石油的化学性质。
02:04
It is this chemistry化学 that makes品牌 oil so disastrous惨重.
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正是这种化学性质导致石油具有极大的灾害性。
02:07
Oil doesn't sink水槽, it floats彩车.
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石油不下沉,石油漂浮。
02:09
If it sank沉没, it would be a whole整个 different不同 story故事 as far as an oil spill.
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如果它下沉,那石油泄漏将是一个完全不同的故事了。
02:12
And the other thing it does is it spreads利差 out the moment时刻 it hits点击 the water.
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另外一件事就是当石油一接触到水便扩散开来。
02:15
It spreads利差 out to be really thin,
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它扩散到十分的薄,
02:17
so you have a hard time corralling网罗 it.
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因此会很难将其围堵起来。
02:19
The next下一个 thing that happens发生
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接下来发生的事情
02:21
is the light ends结束 evaporate蒸发,
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就是那些轻的物质会挥发,
02:24
and some of the toxic有毒的 things float浮动 into the water column
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一些有毒物质漂浮到水层中
02:27
and kill fish eggs
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杀死鱼卵
02:29
and smaller fish and things like that, and shrimp.
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和一些小鱼,小虾。
02:32
And then the asphaltenes沥青质 -- and this is the crucial关键 thing --
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然后沥青烯--这是决定的东西--
02:34
the asphaltenes沥青质 get whipped鞭打 by the waves波浪
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沥青烯被波浪拍打成
02:37
into a frothy多泡的 emulsion乳胶, something like mayonnaise蛋黄酱.
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充满泡沫的乳状液,像蛋黄酱一样。
02:39
It triples三元 the amount
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它增加三倍
02:41
of oily油腻, messy goo感伤 that you have in the water,
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那些在水中的油腻的,肮脏的粘状物的总量
02:44
and it makes品牌 it very hard to handle处理.
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并且它使得很难去处理。
02:46
It also makes品牌 it very viscous粘性的.
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它也使得它(泄漏的石油)变得很粘滞。
02:48
When the Prestige声望 sank沉没 off the coast of Spain西班牙,
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当威望号油轮在西班牙海岸沉没后,
02:51
there were big, floating漂浮的 cushions靠垫 the size尺寸 of sofa沙发 cushions靠垫
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沙发垫大小的如胶状的石油层
02:54
of emulsified乳化 oil,
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漂浮在海面,
02:56
with the consistency一致性, or the viscosity粘性, of chewing咀嚼 gum.
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就像粘滞性的口香糖。
02:58
It's incredibly令人难以置信 hard to clean清洁 up.
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清理的困难程度让人难以置信。
03:00
And every一切 single oil is different不同 when it hits点击 water.
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并且每一滴接触到水面的油都不同。
03:03
When the chemistry化学 of the oil and water
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当石油和水的化学成分
03:05
also hits点击 our politics政治,
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同样地触及到政治,
03:07
it's absolutely绝对 explosive爆炸物.
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一场爆发是无法避免的。
03:09
For the first time, American美国 consumers消费者
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美国消费者第一次,
03:11
will kind of see the oil supply供应 chain in front面前 of themselves他们自己.
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直面石油供应链。
03:15
They have a "eureka尤里卡!" moment时刻,
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他们会有“我发现了!”的一瞬间,
03:17
when we suddenly突然 understand理解 oil in a different不同 context上下文.
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那一刻我们从另一个角度重新认识了石油。
03:20
So I'm going to talk just a little bit about the origin起源 of these politics政治,
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因此,我将简短的讲述一下这些政治的起源,
03:23
because it's really crucial关键 to understanding理解
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因为这对了解
03:25
why this summer夏季 is so important重要, why we need to stay focused重点.
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为什么这个夏天是如此重要,为什么我们需要关注它至关重要。
03:28
Nobody没有人 gets得到 up in the morning早上 and thinks,
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没有人早晨起来后想,
03:30
"Wow! I'm going to go buy购买
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“哇!我要把一些三碳到十二碳的分子
03:32
some three-carbon-to-三碳 -12-carbon-碳 molecules分子 to put in my tank坦克
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装到我的油箱里
03:34
and drive驾驶 happily高高兴兴 to work."
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然后开心地开车去上班。”
03:36
No, they think, "Ugh. I have to go buy购买 gas加油站.
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不,他们想的是,“哎,我得去买汽油。
03:38
I'm so angry愤怒 about it. The oil companies公司 are ripping翻录 me off.
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太生气了。这些石油公司分明是在敲竹杠。
03:40
They set the prices价格, and I don't even know.
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我对他们如何决定价格毫不知情。
03:42
I am helpless无助 over this."
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太无助了。”
03:44
And this is what happens发生 to us at the gas加油站 pump --
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这就是我们在加油站所发生的事情。
03:46
and actually其实, gas加油站 pumps are specifically特别 designed设计
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实际上,加油站是被精心策划了的
03:48
to diffuse扩散 that anger愤怒.
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目的是减轻我们的愤怒。
03:50
You might威力 notice注意 that many许多 gas加油站 pumps, including包含 this one,
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你也许会发现很多加油站,包括这个,
03:52
are designed设计 to look like ATMs自动取款机.
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看上去好像自动取款机。
03:54
I've talked to engineers工程师. That's specifically特别 to diffuse扩散 our anger愤怒,
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我曾与工程师谈论过,这设计就是为了减轻我们的愤怒感,
03:57
because supposedly按说 we feel good about ATMs自动取款机.
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因为我们天生对自动取款机有好感。
03:59
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
04:01
That shows节目 you how bad it is.
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看看它有多么坏。
04:03
But actually其实, I mean, this feeling感觉 of helplessness无奈
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但是事实上,我所说的这种无助感
04:05
comes in because most Americans美国人 actually其实 feel
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是指大多数美国人认定
04:08
that oil prices价格 are the result结果 of a conspiracy阴谋,
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汽油的价格是一种密谋,
04:11
not of the vicissitudes沧桑 of the world世界 oil market市场.
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而非世界石油市场的盛衰。
04:14
And the thing is, too,
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但要命的是,
04:16
is that we also feel very helpless无助 about the amount that we consume消耗,
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我们对消费总量也一无所知,
04:18
which哪一个 is somewhat有些 reasonable合理,
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这多少也合理,
04:20
because in fact事实, we have designed设计 this system系统
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实际上我们设计了这个系统,
04:23
where, if you want to get a job工作,
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如果你想找个工作,
04:26
it's much more important重要 to have a car汽车 that runs运行,
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首先得有一辆能跑的车,
04:29
to have a job工作 and keep a job工作, than to have a GEDGED.
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为了找到并维持这份工作,得有一个汽油发动机驱动装置(注:GED:Gasoline Engine Driven)
04:32
And that's actually其实 very perverse.
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其实这很荒谬。
04:34
Now there's another另一个 perverse thing about the way we buy购买 gas加油站,
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另外一件反常的事情是关于我们买汽油
04:36
which哪一个 is that we'd星期三 rather be doing anything else其他.
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也就是我们宁可做点别的事情。
04:38
This is BP'sBP的 gas加油站 station
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这是英国石油公司BP(注:BP:British Petroleum)的加油站
04:40
in downtown市中心 Los洛杉矶 Angeles洛杉矶.
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在洛杉矶的市中心。
04:42
It is green绿色. It is a shrine神社 to greenishness淡绿色.
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它是绿色的,它仿佛一座绿色圣殿。
04:45
"Now," you think, "why would something so lame
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现在请你想想,“为什么一些本无说服力的东西
04:48
work on people so smart聪明?"
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能如此巧妙地说服人们?”
04:50
Well, the reason原因 is, is because, when we're buying购买 gas加油站,
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原因在于:当我们买汽油时,
04:53
we're very invested投资 in this sort分类 of cognitive认知 dissonance不和谐.
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我们产生了某种认知失调。
04:56
I mean, we're angry愤怒 at the one hand and we want to be somewhere某处 else其他.
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我们一方面很生气,我们想去别的地方,
04:59
We don't want to be buying购买 oil;
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而不是站在这儿买汽油;
05:01
we want to be doing something green绿色.
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另一方面,我们又想做些绿色环保的事情。
05:03
And we get kind of in on our own拥有 con.
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我们陷入了自己设计的矛盾之中。
05:06
I mean -- and this is funny滑稽,
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这挺有意思的。
05:08
it looks容貌 funny滑稽 here.
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看起来很可笑。
05:10
But in fact事实, that's why the slogan口号 "beyond petroleum石油" worked工作.
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但是实际上这就是为什么“超越石油”这个标语能起作用。
05:13
But it's an inherent固有 part部分 of our energy能源 policy政策,
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作为能源政策固有的一个部分,
05:16
which哪一个 is we don't talk about
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我们不去谈论
05:18
reducing减少 the amount of oil that we use.
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怎样减少我们使用石油的总量。
05:20
We talk about energy能源 independence独立. We talk about hydrogen cars汽车.
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我们谈论能源独立。我们谈论氢能汽车。
05:23
We talk about biofuels生物燃料 that haven't没有 been invented发明 yet然而.
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我们谈论还没有被发明出来的生物能源。
05:25
And so, cognitive认知 dissonance不和谐
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因此,认知失调
05:28
is part部分 and parcel of the way that we deal合同 with oil,
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是我们对待石油的一部分,
05:31
and it's really important重要 to dealing交易 with this oil spill.
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并且它也对处理石油泄漏十分重要。
05:33
Okay, so the politics政治 of oil
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石油政治
05:36
are very moral道德 in the United联合的 States状态.
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在美国是很有道义的。
05:38
The oil industry行业 is like a huge巨大, gigantic巨大 octopus章鱼
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石油业就像一只巨大的章鱼,
05:41
of engineering工程 and finance金融
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它涉及工程、金融
05:43
and everything else其他,
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以及其他所有的行业,
05:45
but we actually其实 see it in very moral道德 terms条款.
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但是实际上我们认为它很有道德。
05:47
This is an early-on早在 photograph照片 -- you can see, we had these gushersgushers.
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这是较早前的一张照片。你可以看到,这里有些喷油井。
05:50
Early journalists记者 looked看着 at these spills泄漏,
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早前的一些记者看到这些泄漏,
05:52
and they said, "This is a filthy污秽 industry行业."
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他们说,“这是一个肮脏的产业。”
05:54
But they also saw in it
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但是他们也看到
05:56
that people were getting得到 rich丰富 for doing nothing.
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人们什么都不用做就可以赚大笔钱。
05:58
They weren't farmers农民, they were just getting得到 rich丰富 for stuff东东 coming未来 out of the ground地面.
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他们不是农民,他们却靠土地上冒出来的东西发财。
06:01
It's the "Beverly贝弗利 Hillbillies山人," basically基本上.
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这根本就是“豪门新人类”(注:Beverly Hillbillies 60年代美国喜剧)。
06:03
But in the beginning开始, this was seen看到 as a very morally道德 problematic问题 thing,
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刚开始时,这件事的道德问题是有争论的,
06:06
long before it became成为 funny滑稽.
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早在它变得有趣之前。
06:08
And then, of course课程, there was John约翰 D. Rockefeller洛克菲勒.
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然后,当然,这里是约翰 D. 洛克菲勒。
06:11
And the thing about John约翰 D. is that
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关于约翰 D.的是
06:13
he went into this chaotic混乱的 wild-east野生东
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他进入了这个混乱的
06:15
of oil industry行业,
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石油产业,
06:17
and he rationalized合理化 it
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他使之合理化
06:19
into a vertically垂直 integrated集成 company公司, a multinational跨国.
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成为了一个纵向整合的公司,一个跨国公司。
06:22
It was terrifying可怕的; you think Walmart沃尔玛(Walmart) is a terrifying可怕的 business商业 model模型 now,
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这是极可怕的。你现在认为沃尔玛是个可怕的经营模式,
06:25
imagine想像 what this looked看着 like in the 1860s or 1870s.
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想象一下这些在一八六零年或者一八七零年代是什么样子。
06:28
And it also the kind of root
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这也是
06:31
of how we see oil as a conspiracy阴谋.
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我们视石油(行业)为一个密谋的根源。
06:34
But what's really amazing惊人 is that
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但是真正惊人的是
06:36
Ida艾达 Tarbell塔贝尔, the journalist记者,
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记者艾达 塔贝尔,
06:39
went in and did a big expos博览会é of Rockefeller洛克菲勒
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走进并且曝光了洛克菲勒的内幕,
06:42
and actually其实 got the whole整个 antitrust反垄断 laws法律
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接着推进了
06:44
put in place地点.
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完整的反垄断法。
06:46
But in many许多 ways方法,
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但是在很多方面,
06:48
that image图片 of the conspiracy阴谋 still sticks with us.
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密谋的印象始终缠绕着我们。
06:50
And here's这里的 one of the things
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其中有一件事情
06:52
that Ida艾达 Tarbell塔贝尔 said --
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艾达 塔贝尔说过。
06:54
she said, "He has a thin nose鼻子 like a thorn.
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她说,“他有一个像刺一般细的鼻子。
06:57
There were no lips嘴唇.
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没有嘴唇。
06:59
There were puffs泡芙 under the little colorless无色 eyes眼睛
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他无生气的眼睛下有鼓起的眼袋
07:01
with creases折痕 running赛跑 from them."
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布满皱纹。“
07:03
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
07:05
Okay, so that guy is actually其实 still with us.
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所以那个人仍然和我们在一起。
07:07
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
07:09
I mean, this is a very pervasive无处不在 -- this is part部分 of our DNA脱氧核糖核酸.
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我的意思是,这是一个非常普遍的--这是我们基因的一部分。
07:12
And then there's this guy, okay.
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然后这个人在这里。
07:15
So, you might威力 be wondering想知道 why it is that,
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所以,你可能想知道为什么
07:17
every一切 time we have high oil prices价格 or an oil spill,
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每次我们有了高价石油或者石油泄漏,
07:19
we call these CEOs老总 down to Washington华盛顿,
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我们把这些首席执行官叫到华盛顿,
07:22
and we sort分类 of pepper胡椒 them with questions问题 in public上市 and we try to shame耻辱 them.
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公开地接二连三地问他们,试图羞辱他们。
07:25
And this is something that we've我们已经 been doing since以来 1974,
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这就是从一九七四年以来我们一直在做的,
07:28
when we first asked them, "Why are there these obscene猥亵 profits利润?"
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当我们第一次问他们,“为什么这有肮脏的利润?”
07:31
And we've我们已经 sort分类 of personalized个性化 the whole整个 oil industry行业
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我们似乎将整个石油行业当成
07:33
into these CEOs老总.
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首席执行官们个人的产业。
07:35
And we take it as, you know --
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我们尝试
07:38
we look at it on a moral道德 level水平,
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从道德角度去看待它,
07:40
rather than looking at it on a legal法律 and financial金融 level水平.
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而不是从一个法律和金融的角度去看它。
07:43
And so I'm not saying these guys aren't liable容易 to answer回答 questions问题 --
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我并不是说这些人没有资格回答问题,
07:46
I'm just saying that, when you focus焦点 on
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我只是说,当你关注
07:48
whether是否 they are or are not a bunch of greedy贪婪 bastards混蛋,
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他们是否是一群贪婪的混蛋,
07:51
you don't actually其实 get around to the point
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你实际上并没有找到重点
07:53
of making制造 laws法律 that are either going to either change更改 the way they operate操作,
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即,你必须制定法律改变他们运营的方式,
07:56
or you're going to get around
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或者你开始
07:58
to really reducing减少 the amount of oil
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认真地减少石油消费量,
08:00
and reducing减少 our dependence依赖 on oil.
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减少我们对于石油的依赖程度。
08:02
So I'm saying this is kind of a distraction娱乐.
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因此我说这是种分心。
08:04
But it makes品牌 for good theater剧院,
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但是这是一个很好的噱头,
08:06
and it's powerfully有力 cathartic泻药 as you probably大概 saw last week.
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非常有力,正如你上个星期所看到的。
08:10
So the thing about water oil spills泄漏
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关于石油泄漏最重要的
08:12
is that they are very politically政治上 galvanizing镀锌.
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是它们带有很强的政治争议。
08:15
I mean, these pictures图片 -- this is from the Santa圣诞老人 Barbara芭芭拉 spill.
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我的意思是,那些照片--这是来自于圣巴巴拉市的石油泄漏。
08:18
You have these pictures图片 of birds鸟类.
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这是些鸟的照片。
08:20
They really influence影响 people.
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它们的确影响着人们。
08:22
When the Santa圣诞老人 Barbara芭芭拉 spill happened发生 in 1969,
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一九六九年,圣巴巴拉市的石油泄漏,
08:25
it formed形成 the environmental环境的 movement运动 in its modern现代 form形成.
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促成了现代化的环保运动,
08:27
It started开始 Earth地球 Day.
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开创了地球日。
08:29
It also put in place地点 the National国民 Environmental环境的 Policy政策 Act法案,
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它也同时推进了国家环境政策法案,
08:32
the Clean清洁 Air空气 Act法案, the Clean清洁 Water Act法案.
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洁净空气法案,和洁净水法案。
08:35
Everything that we are really stemmed朵朵 from this period.
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所有的一切都起源于这个时期。
08:38
I think it's important重要 to kind of look at these pictures图片 of the birds鸟类
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我认为观察一下这些鸟的照片很重要
08:41
and understand理解 what happens发生 to us.
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并且了解我们周围发生了什么。
08:43
Here we are normally一般;
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经常性的,
08:45
we're standing常设 at the gas加油站 pump, and we're feeling感觉 kind of helpless无助.
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我们站在加油站,感觉很无助。
08:47
We look at these pictures图片
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我们看着这些照片,
08:49
and we understand理解, for the first time, our role角色 in this supply供应 chain.
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然后我们第一次明白了,我们在供应链上的角色。
08:52
We connect the dots in the supply供应 chain.
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我们将供应链上的这些点链接起来。
08:54
And we have this kind of --
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然后我们似乎--
08:56
as voters选民, we have kind of a "eureka尤里卡!" moment时刻.
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作为投票者,我们有了一个“我发现了”的时刻。
08:59
This is why these moments瞬间 of these oil spills泄漏
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这就是为什么这些石油泄漏的瞬间
09:01
are so important重要.
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是如此的重要。
09:03
But it's also really important重要 that we don't get distracted分心
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但是我们不
09:06
by the theater剧院 or the morals of it.
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被这噱头或者是它的道义所转移注意力也是很重要的。
09:08
We actually其实 need to go in
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我们的确需要深入问题的根源,
09:10
and work on the roots of the problem问题.
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并且解决问题。
09:12
One of the things that happened发生 with the two previous以前 oil spills泄漏
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前两次石油泄漏
09:15
was that we really worked工作 on some of the symptoms症状.
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我们致力于解决某些症状。
09:18
We were very reactive反应, as opposed反对 to being存在 proactive主动
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我们并非主动,而是十分被动地
09:20
about what happened发生.
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接受所发生的事情。
09:22
And so what we did was, actually其实,
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因此我们仅仅是,
09:24
we made制作 moratoriums暂停 on the east and west西 coasts海岸 on drilling钻孔.
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暂缓了在东海岸和西海岸的钻油。
09:27
We stopped停止 drilling钻孔 in ANWRANWR,
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我们停止了在北极野生生物国家保护区的钻油(注:ANWR:Arctic National Wildlife Refuge)
09:30
but we didn't actually其实 reduce减少 the amount of oil that we consumed消费.
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但是我们实际上并没有减少石油的消费量。
09:33
In fact事实, it's continued继续 to increase增加.
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事实上,消费在持续增加。
09:35
The only thing that really reduces减少 the amount of oil that we consume消耗
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唯一能减少我们消费石油的办法就是
09:38
is much higher更高 prices价格.
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较高的价格。
09:40
As you can see, our own拥有 production生产 has fallen堕落 off
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正如你所见,我们的生产量已经减少了
09:42
as our reservoirs水库 have gotten得到 old and expensive昂贵 to drill钻头 out.
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由于我们油库已经变得陈旧并且钻油也十分昂贵。
09:44
We only have two percent百分 of the world's世界 oil reserves储量;
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我们仅有世界石油储藏量的百分之二。
09:47
65 percent百分 of them are in the Persian波斯语 Gulf海湾.
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百分之六十五的石油储藏在波斯湾。
09:50
One of the things that's happened发生 because of this
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这也导致了另一件事的发生。
09:52
is that, since以来 1969,
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自一九六九年起,
09:55
the country国家 of Nigeria尼日利亚, or the part部分 of Nigeria尼日利亚 that pumps oil,
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尼日利亚,或者说尼日利亚的产油区,
09:58
which哪一个 is the delta三角洲 -- which哪一个 is two times the size尺寸 of Maryland马里兰 --
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也就是三角洲--面积约为马里兰州两倍大小--
10:01
has had thousands数千 of oil spills泄漏 a year.
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每年发生数千起石油泄漏事件。
10:03
I mean, we've我们已经 essentially实质上 been exporting出口 oil spills泄漏
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这就好像出口石油泄漏。
10:05
when we import进口 oil from places地方
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当我们从那些
10:07
without tight environmental环境的 regulations法规.
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缺乏严谨环境管理的地区进口石油,
10:09
That has been the equivalent当量 of an Exxon埃克森 Valdez瓦尔迪兹 spill
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这与埃克森-瓦尔迪兹号油轮泄漏事件相同,
10:12
every一切 year since以来 1969.
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一九六九年起的每一年都是如此。
10:15
And we can wrap our heads around the spills泄漏,
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我们完全了解石油泄漏,
10:17
because that's what we see here,
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因为我们目睹了这里所发生的一切,
10:19
but in fact事实, these guys actually其实 live生活 in a war战争 zone.
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这些人所居住的是一个战区。
10:21
There's a thousand battle-related战斗相关 deaths死亡 a year
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这里每年有数千人死于交战,
10:24
in this area twice两次 the size尺寸 of Maryland马里兰,
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就在这个有着马里兰州两倍大面积的地方,
10:26
and it's all related有关 to the oil.
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这都与石油有关。
10:28
And these guys, I mean, if they were in the U.S.,
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这些人如果生活在美国,
10:30
they might威力 be actually其实 here in this room房间.
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他们可能就在这个房间里。
10:32
They have degrees in political政治 science科学, degrees in business商业 --
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他们有可能有政治学或者商学学位。
10:34
they're entrepreneurs企业家. They don't actually其实 want to be doing what they're doing.
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他们是企业家。他们事实上并不想做他们所从事的。
10:38
And it's sort分类 of one of the other groups of people
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这其实是另外一群人
10:41
who pay工资 a price价钱 for us.
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他们为我们付出代价。
10:43
The other thing that we've我们已经 doneDONE,
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我们所做的另外一件事,
10:45
as we've我们已经 continued继续 to increase增加 demand需求,
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由于我们持续增长需求,
10:47
is that we kind of play a shell贝壳 game游戏 with the costs成本.
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实则用成本来玩一个骗局。
10:50
One of the places地方 we put in a big oil project项目
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其中一个正在进行的一个巨大的石油项目的地方
10:53
in Chad乍得, with Exxon埃克森.
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是在乍得,由埃克森石油公司负责。
10:55
So the U.S. taxpayer纳税人 paid支付 for it;
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美国纳税人为此买单,
10:57
the World世界 Bank银行, Exxon埃克森 paid支付 for it.
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世界银行,埃克森石油公司也为此付账。
10:59
We put it in. There was a tremendous巨大 banditry土匪 problem问题.
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这是一个巨大的盗匪问题。
11:02
I was there in 2003.
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二零零三年的时候我在那里。
11:04
We were driving主动 along沿 this dark黑暗, dark黑暗 road,
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我们沿着这个很黑很黑的路行驶,
11:06
and the guy in the green绿色 stepped加强 out,
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有个穿着绿色衣服的人走了出去,
11:08
and I was just like, "Ahhh唉唉! This is it."
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我就说,“啊!这就是。”
11:11
And then the guy in the Exxon埃克森 uniform制服 stepped加强 out,
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之后有个穿着埃克森制服的人走了出去,
11:14
and we realized实现 it was okay.
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于是我们意识到一切正常。
11:16
They have their own拥有 private私人的 sort分类 of army军队 around them at the oil fields领域.
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他们在油田有自己的私人军队驻守。
11:18
But at the same相同 time,
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但与此同时,
11:20
Chad乍得 has become成为 much more unstable不稳定,
276
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乍得变得更加得不稳定,
11:22
and we are not paying付款 for that price价钱 at the pump.
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我们在加油站并不支付这些代价。
11:25
We pay工资 for it in our taxes on April四月 15th.
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我们以四月十五日纳的税来支付这些费用。
11:28
We do the same相同 thing
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我们做同样的事情
11:30
with the price价钱 of policing治安 the Persian波斯语 Gulf海湾
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用监管波斯湾的费用
11:32
and keeping保持 the shipping运输 lanes车道 open打开.
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来维持海洋航道开放。
11:34
This is 1988 --
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这是一九八八年。
11:36
we actually其实 bombed轰炸 two Iranian伊朗的 oil platforms平台 that year.
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那一年我们炸毁了两座伊朗的石油平台。
11:39
That was the beginning开始 of an escalating不断升级 U.S. involvement参与 there
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那时美国刚开始升级对那里的干涉
11:41
that we do not pay工资 for at the pump.
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我们不在加油站支付(那些干涉的费用)。
11:43
We pay工资 for it on April四月 15th,
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我们在四月十五日为此支付,
11:45
and we can't even calculate计算 the cost成本 of this involvement参与.
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而我们甚至不能计算出这些干涉的花费。
11:48
The other place地点 that is sort分类 of supporting支持 our dependence依赖 on oil
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另有一个地方,一直支持我们对于石油的依赖,
11:51
and our increased增加 consumption消费
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支持我们增加消费,
11:54
is the Gulf海湾 of Mexico墨西哥,
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就是墨西哥湾,
11:56
which哪一个 was not part部分 of the moratoriums暂停.
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而此地并非暂缓钻油的一部分。
11:58
Now what's happened发生 in the Gulf海湾 of Mexico墨西哥 -- as you can see,
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现在在墨西哥湾发生了什么...正如你所见,
12:00
this is the Minerals矿产 Management管理 diagram
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这是关于
12:02
of wells for gas加油站 and oil.
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汽油和石油井的矿产管理图表
12:04
It's become成为 this intense激烈 industrialized工业化 zone.
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它变成了如此紧张的工业区。
12:06
It doesn't have the same相同 resonance谐振 for us
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它和我们没有共鸣
12:08
that the Arctic北极 National国民 Wildlife野生动物 Refuge避难所 has,
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而北极野生生物国家保护区却有,
12:10
but it should, I mean, it's a bird sanctuary避难所.
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但是它本该是个鸟类保护区。
12:13
Also, every一切 time you buy购买 gasoline汽油 in the United联合的 States状态,
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并且,每一次你在美国买汽油,
12:15
half of it is actually其实 being存在 refined精制 along沿 the coast,
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其中的一半实际上是在海岸精炼的,
12:18
because the Gulf海湾 actually其实 has
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因为海湾实际上拥有
12:20
about 50 percent百分 of our refining精制 capacity容量
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大约百分之五十的精炼生产量
12:22
and a lot of our marine海洋 terminals终端 as well.
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和很多的海运油库。
12:24
So the people of the Gulf海湾 have essentially实质上 been subsidizing补贴 the rest休息 of us
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因此在海湾的人们实质上是
12:27
through通过 a less-clean不太干净 environment环境.
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通过(生活在)一个较差的环境来补助我们。
12:30
And finally最后, American美国 families家庭 also pay工资 a price价钱 for oil.
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最后,美国的家庭也为石油付出代价。
12:33
Now on the one hand, the price价钱 at the pump is not really very high
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另一方面,在加油站所支付的价格并不是十分高的
12:36
when you consider考虑 the actual实际 cost成本 of the oil,
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当你考虑到石油的实际成本,
12:38
but on the other hand,
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但在另一方面,
12:40
the fact事实 that people have no other transit过境 options选项
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事实是人们没有其他的运输选择
12:43
means手段 that they pay工资 a large amount of their income收入
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也就是说他们支付他们工资的很大一部分
12:46
into just getting得到 back and forth向前 to work,
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用在往返于工作上,
12:48
generally通常 in a fairly相当 crummy照出 car汽车.
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大部分在一个劣等的车上。
12:50
If you look at people who make $50,000 a year, they have two kids孩子,
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如果你看到一些人他们一年挣五万美元,有两个孩子,
12:53
they might威力 have three jobs工作 or more,
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他们可能有三个或多个工作,
12:55
and then they have to really commute改判.
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并且他们需要通勤。
12:57
They're actually其实 spending开支 more on their car汽车 and fuel汽油
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他们实际上在汽车和燃油上的花费
13:00
than they are on taxes or on health健康 care关心.
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比他们在税和医疗保健上的花费更多。
13:02
And the same相同 thing happens发生
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同样的事情发生在
13:04
at the 50th percentile百分, around 80,000.
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百分之五十的比例上,大约有八万。
13:07
Gasoline汽油 costs成本 are a tremendous巨大 drain排水
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汽油的成本在
13:09
on the American美国 economy经济,
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美国经济上是一个巨大的耗费,
13:11
but they're also a drain排水 on individual个人 families家庭
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但是它也是每个个体家庭的巨大耗费,
13:14
and it's kind of terrifying可怕的 to think about what happens发生 when prices价格 get higher更高.
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当价格上涨时就很难想象将会发生什么。
13:17
So, what I'm going to talk to you about now is:
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于是,我现在将向你们讲述的是:
13:20
what do we have to do this time?
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这一次我们要如何做呢?
13:22
What are the laws法律? What do we have to do to keep ourselves我们自己 focused重点?
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有哪些法律呢?我们做什么才能保持专注呢?
13:25
One thing is -- we need to stay away from the theater剧院.
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其一就是,我们需要远离那些噱头。
13:27
We need to stay away from the moratoriums暂停.
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我们应该远离暂缓钻油。
13:29
We need to focus焦点 really back again
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我们应该回过头来关注
13:31
on the molecules分子.
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那些分子。
13:33
The moratoriums暂停 are fine, but we do need to focus焦点
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暂缓钻油是可以的,但是我们需要关注
13:36
on the molecules分子 on the oil.
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石油的分子。
13:38
One of the things that we also need to do,
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还有一件事情我们需要去做的,
13:40
is we need to try to not kind of fool傻子 ourselves我们自己
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是我们不应该愚弄我们自己
13:42
into thinking思维 that you can have a green绿色 world世界,
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认为我们不用减少石油用量,
13:45
before you reduce减少 the amount of oil that we use.
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就可以拥有一个绿色世界。
13:47
We need to focus焦点 on reducing减少 the oil.
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我们需要关注于减少石油。
13:49
What you see in this top最佳 drawing画画 is a schematic概要
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现在你看到的这个图
13:52
of how petroleum石油 gets得到 used in the U.S. economy经济.
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显示了石油在美国整个经济体中的运用。
13:54
It comes in on the side -- the useful有用 stuff东东 is the dark黑暗 gray灰色,
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它从这边过来--有用的东西是深灰色的,
13:57
and the un-useful联合国有用 stuff东东,
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这些无用的东西,
13:59
which哪一个 is called the rejected拒绝 energy能源 -- the waste浪费,
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被叫做废弃能量,这些废弃物,
14:02
goes up to the top最佳.
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在上部。
14:04
Now you can see that the waste浪费 far outweighs胜过
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你可以看到这些废弃物大大多于
14:06
the actually其实 useful有用 amount.
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实际有效用的总量。
14:08
And one of the things that we need to do
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我们需要做的一件事情
14:10
is, not only fix固定 the fuel汽油 efficiency效率 of our vehicles汽车
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就是,不仅仅稳定我们交通工具的燃油效能
14:12
and make them much more efficient高效,
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使它们变得更加有效率,
14:14
but we also need to fix固定 the economy经济 in general一般.
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我们还需要稳定我们的经济大局。
14:16
We need to remove去掉 the perverse incentives奖励 to use more fuel汽油.
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我们需要尽量避免耗费更多的燃料。
14:19
For example, we have an insurance保险 system系统
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例如,我们有一个保险系统
14:21
where the person who drives驱动器 20,000 miles英里 a year
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一个一年内驾驶两万英里的人
14:24
pays支付 the same相同 insurance保险 as somebody who drives驱动器 3,000.
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与一个驾驶了三千英里的人交付同样的保险金。
14:27
We actually其实 encourage鼓励 people to drive驾驶 more.
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这其实是在鼓励人们行驶更长的里程。
14:29
We have policies政策 that reward奖励 sprawl蔓生 -- we have all kinds of policies政策.
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我们有奖励杂乱扩张的政策。我们有各种各样的政策。
14:32
We need to have more mobility流动性 choices选择.
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我们需要更多的灵活性选择。
14:34
We need to make the gas加油站 price价钱
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我们需要使汽油的价格
14:36
better reflect反映 the real真实 cost成本 of oil.
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更好的反应其真实的成本。
14:38
And we need to shift转移 subsidies补贴 from the oil industry行业,
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我们要将把对石油工业的补助,
14:41
which哪一个 is at least最小 10 billion十亿 dollars美元 a year,
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每年至少一百亿美元,
14:44
into something that allows允许 middle-class中产阶级 people to find better ways方法 to commute改判.
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转移到改善那些使中产阶级的人们的处境上。
14:47
Whether是否 that's getting得到 a much more efficient高效 car汽车
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是否能拥有更高效的汽车
14:50
and also kind of building建造 markets市场
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或是创造
14:52
for new cars汽车 and new fuels燃料 down the road,
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利用新型汽车和新型燃料的市场
14:54
this is where we need to be.
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这才是我们需要做的。
14:56
We need to kind of rationalize理顺 this whole整个 thing,
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我们需要把这一切重新整理,
14:58
and you can find more about this policy政策.
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你将发现更多关于这一政策的信息。
15:00
It's called STRONG强大, which哪一个 is "Secure安全 Transportation运输
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这一政策叫做STRONG,” Secure Transportation, Reducing Oil Needs Gradually."
15:02
Reducing减少 Oil Needs需求 Gradually逐渐,"
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“安全运输,并逐步减低石油用量”
15:04
and the idea理念 is instead代替 of being存在 helpless无助, we need to be more strong强大.
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主旨是,与其处在一种无助状态,我们要变得更强。
15:07
They're up at NewAmericaNewAmerica.net.
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具体的内容在NewAmerica.net(网站)上。
15:09
What's important重要 about these
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所有这些重要的是
15:11
is that we try to move移动
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我们试图将
15:13
from feeling感觉 helpless无助 at the pump,
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在加油站的那种无助感
15:15
to actually其实 being存在 active活性
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转变为主动,
15:17
and to really sort分类 of thinking思维 about who we are,
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认真思考我们是谁,
15:20
having kind of that special特别 moment时刻,
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在那一特殊的时刻,
15:22
where we connect the dots actually其实 at the pump.
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在加油站的我们是整个链接上的哪一个环节
15:25
Now supposedly按说, oil taxes
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假如,石油税
15:28
are the third第三 rail of American美国 politics政治 -- the no-fly禁航 zone.
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在美国的政治上是一个禁忌的话题--如同禁飞区。
15:31
I actually其实 -- I agree同意 that a dollar美元 a gallon加仑 on oil
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我同意一美元买一加仑的汽油
15:33
is probably大概 too much,
383
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是有点贵,
15:35
but I think that if we started开始 this year
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但是我认为如果我们从今年开始
15:37
with three cents a gallon加仑 on gasoline汽油,
385
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以一加仑汽油三美分
15:40
and upped调升 it to six cents next下一个 year, nine cents the following以下 year,
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然后明年增加到六美分,后年九美分,
15:43
all the way up to 30 cents by 2020,
387
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一直这样增加到二零二零年的三十美分,
15:46
that we could actually其实 significantly显著 reduce减少 our gasoline汽油 consumption消费,
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如此这般就可以显著地减少我们对汽油的消费,
15:49
and at the same相同 time we would give people time to prepare准备,
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同时我们应该给予人们准备的时间,
15:52
time to respond响应,
390
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反应的时间,
15:54
and we would be raising提高 money and raising提高 consciousness意识 at the same相同 time.
391
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收入提高的同时,人们的觉悟也在提高。
15:57
Let me give you a little sense of how this would work.
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让我来用一个简单的道理演示这如何工作。
16:00
This is a gas加油站 receipt收据, hypothetically假设, for a year from now.
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这是一张汽油的收据,假设,从现在起一年。
16:03
The first thing that you have on the tax is --
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首先在这个税上的是,
16:05
you have a tax for a stronger America美国 -- 33 cents.
395
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一个对“更强壮的美国”的税--三十三美分。
16:08
So you're not helpless无助 at the pump.
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如此在加油站的你将不再感觉无助。
16:10
And the second第二 thing that you have is a kind of warning警告 sign标志,
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然后这里有一个警告的标示,
16:13
very similar类似 to what you would find
398
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与你在香烟盒子上
16:15
on a cigarette香烟 pack.
399
960000
2000
看到的警告标示非常相似。
16:17
And what it says is, "The National国民 Academy学院 of Sciences科学
400
962000
3000
它说的是,“国家科学院
16:20
estimates估计 that every一切 gallon加仑 of gas加油站 you burn烧伤 in your car汽车
401
965000
3000
预测您的汽车所燃烧的每一加仑的汽油
16:23
creates创建 29 cents in health健康 care关心 costs成本."
402
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造成医疗保健的二十九美分代价。”
16:25
That's a lot.
403
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这是很多的。
16:27
And so this -- you can see that you're paying付款 considerably相当 less
404
972000
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如此一来--你可以看到你支付相当少的
16:29
than the health健康 care关心 costs成本 on the tax.
405
974000
3000
医疗保健费用在税收上。
16:32
And also, the hope希望 is that
406
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并且,期望是
16:35
you start开始 to be connected连接的 to the whole整个 greater更大 system系统.
407
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你开始和这整个庞大的系统连接起来。
16:38
And at the same相同 time, you have a number that you can call
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同时,有一个号码你可以拨打
16:40
to get more information信息 on commuting上下班,
409
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3000
可以获取更多的关于通勤的信息,
16:43
or a low-interest低利率 loan贷款 on a different不同 kind of car汽车,
410
988000
3000
或者对一个不同汽车的低息贷款,
16:46
or whatever随你 it is you're going to need
411
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无论如何你将
16:48
to actually其实 reduce减少 your gasoline汽油 dependence依赖.
412
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确实地减少你对汽油的依赖。
16:52
With this whole整个 sort分类 of suite套房 of policies政策,
413
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依据这整套的政策,
16:54
we could actually其实 reduce减少 our gasoline汽油 consumption消费 --
414
999000
2000
我们可以实实在在地减少汽油的消费量--
16:56
or our oil consumption消费 --
415
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或是石油的消费量--
16:58
by 20 percent百分 by 2020.
416
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百分之二十到二零二零年。
17:01
So, three million百万 barrels a day.
417
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3000
也就是一天三百万桶。
17:04
But in order订购 to do this,
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1009000
2000
但是为了做这些,
17:06
one of the things we really need to do, is we need to remember记得
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有一件事情我们必须要做的就是我们要记得
17:08
we are people of the hydrocarbon.
420
1013000
2000
我们是依赖碳氢化合物的人。
17:10
We need to keep or minds头脑 on the molecules分子
421
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2000
我们必须集中精力在分子上
17:12
and not get distracted分心 by the theater剧院,
422
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3000
不要被噱头所分心,
17:15
not get distracted分心 by the cognitive认知 dissonance不和谐
423
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2000
不要因为认知失调而分神,
17:17
of the green绿色 possibilities可能性 that are out there.
424
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这里根本不存在绿色可能性。
17:19
We need to kind of get down and do the gritty坚韧不拔 work
425
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2000
我们需要着手认真的做些棘手的工作
17:21
of reducing减少 our dependence依赖 upon this fuel汽油 and these molecules分子.
426
1026000
3000
来减少我们对这些燃料和分子的依赖性。
17:24
Thank you.
427
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谢谢。
17:26
(Applause掌声)
428
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(掌声)
Translated by Guo Tang
Reviewed by Qian Yue

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Lisa Margonelli - Writer
Director of the New America Foundation Energy Policy Initiative, Lisa Margonelli writes about the global culture and economy of energy.

Why you should listen

Lisa Margonelli's work examines the promise and possibility of a post-oil world. She has studied California's opportunity to benefit from new technologies and policies, and is looking at the unexpected complications of alternative fuels and energy efficiency.

Margonelli has been published in The Atlantic, New York Times online, Washington Post, Wired and other publications. Her book about the oil supply chain, Oil On the Brain: Petroleum's Long Strange Trip to Your Tank, was recognized as one of the 25 Notable Books of 2007 by the American Library Association.

More profile about the speaker
Lisa Margonelli | Speaker | TED.com