TEDSalon 2007 Hot Science
Juan Enriquez: Using biology to rethink the energy challenge
JUAN ENRIQUEZ 想要種植能源
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Juan Enriquez 向我們對生物能源的定義提出了挑戰。 石油，煤炭，煤氣和其他的碳氫化合物不是人造化學物質，而是基於植物的生物產品-因此，是可以成長的。他認為，我們對待燃料的整個方式都需要改變。
Juan Enriquez - Futurist
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
What is bioenergy? Bioenergy is not ethanol.
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什麽是生物能源？ 生物能源不是乙醇。
00:31
Bioenergy isn't global warming. Bioenergy is
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生物能源不是全球變暖。生物能源是
00:37
something which seems counterintuitive. Bioenergy
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一種看上去違反直覺的東西。生物能源
00:39
is oil. It's gas. It's coal. And part of building
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是石油，是煤氣，是煤碳。
00:44
that bridge to the future, to the point where we
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我們建造通向未來的橋梁-直到我們
00:46
can actually see the oceans in a rational way, or
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能夠真正以理性的眼光來看待海洋或
00:49
put up these geo-spatial orbits that will twirl or
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建造可以旋轉或釋放微波或其他物質的地球空間軌道-
00:54
do microwaves or stuff, is going to depend on how
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將取決於
00:57
we understand bioenergy and manage it. And to do
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我們怎樣理解和管理生物能源。要做到這些，
01:00
that, you really have to look first at agriculture.
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你真的必須首先瞭解農業。
01:03
So we've been planting stuff for 11,000 years. And
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我們已經從事種植業有11,000年了。
01:07
in the measure that we plant stuff, what we learn
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在種植的過程中，我們從農業中學到的
01:10
from agriculture is you've got to deal with pests,
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是你需要對付害蟲，
01:13
you've got to deal with all types of awful things,
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你需要對付各種各樣的可怕的東西，
01:16
you've got to cultivate stuff. In the measure
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你需要培育作物。
01:17
that you learn how to use water to cultivate, then
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你在種植的過程中學會怎樣用水進行灌溉，然後
01:21
you're going to be able to spread beyond the Nile.
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你才能將種植業傳播到尼羅河以外的地區。
01:24
You're going to be able to power stuff, so irrigation
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你需要能夠提供動力，所以灌溉
01:27
makes a difference.
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使事情發生了變化。
01:29
Irrigation starts to make you be allowed to plant
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灌溉開始使你能夠
01:31
stuff where you want it, as opposed to where the
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在你想要種的地方種植作物，而不只是局限於
01:34
rivers flood. You start getting this organic
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河流自然流到的地域。於是你開始了這種有機
01:36
agriculture; you start putting machinery onto this
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農業， 你開始在農業中使用機械。
01:40
stuff. Machinery, with a whole bunch of water,
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機械與大量的水一起，
01:43
leads to very large-scale agriculture.
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導致了大規模農業的產生。
01:46
You put together machines and water, and you get
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你將機器和水放在一起，就得到
01:50
landscapes that look like this. And then you get
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看上去是這樣子的景觀。然後你獲得
01:54
sales that look like this. It's brute force. So
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看上去是這樣子的銷售。這是蠻力。所以
01:58
what you've been doing in agriculture is you start
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你在農業領域所做的是，你從
02:00
out with something that's a reasonably natural
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一個相對說來是自然的系統出發。
02:02
system. You start taming that natural system. You
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你開始征服這一自然系統。
02:04
put a lot of force behind that natural system. You
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你在這一自然系統的背後添加了大量機械動力。
02:07
put a whole bunch of pesticides and herbicides --
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你將大量的殺蟲劑和除草劑
02:11
(Laughter) -- behind that natural system, and you
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-（笑聲）-添加到這個自然系統的背後，你
02:19
end up with systems that look like this.
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最終得到的是看上去是這樣子的系統。
02:23
And it's all brute force. And that's the way we've
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這些都是蠻力。這就是我們
02:26
been approaching energy. So the lesson in
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處理能源的方式。所以， 在農業上我們得到
02:29
agriculture is that you can actually change the
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的教訓就是實際上你可以改變這種
02:32
system that's based on brute force as you start
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基於蠻力的體系，當你開始
02:35
merging that system and learning that system and
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將不同的元素融入這一系統，並且試圖瞭解這一系統，並且
02:37
actually applying biology. And you move from a
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在其中實際運用生物學的原理。這樣，你就從
02:40
discipline of engineering, you move from a
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工程學的領域，你就從
02:42
discipline of chemistry, into a discipline of
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化學的領域，轉向了
02:44
biology. And probably one of the most important
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生物學的領域。可能地球上最重要的
02:48
human beings on the planet is this guy behind me.
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一個人就是我身後的這個人。
02:51
This is a guy called Norman Borlaug. He won the
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這個人名叫Norman Borlaug .
02:53
Nobel Prize. He's got the Congressional Medal of
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他獲得了諾貝爾獎。他獲得了國會榮譽獎章。
02:55
Honor. He deserves all of this stuff. And he
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這些榮譽都是他應得的。他
02:59
deserves this stuff because he probably has fed
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應該得到這些榮譽是因為他可能比
03:01
more people than any other human being alive
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任何其他活著的人都養活了更多的人。
03:04
because he researched how to put biology behind
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因為他從事在種子技術中運用生物學的研究。
03:07
seeds. He did this in Mexico. The reason why India
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他是在墨西哥從事這一研究的。
03:12
and China no longer have these massive famines is
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印度和中國不再有大規模饑荒的原因是
03:15
because Norman Borlaug taught them how to grow
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因為Norman Borlaug 教會了他們怎樣
03:17
grains in a more efficient way and launched the
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更有效的種植糧食，開啟了
03:20
Green Revolution. That is something that a lot of
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綠色革命的先河。許多
03:23
people have criticized. But of course, those are
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人都曾經批評過這件事。但是當然， 這些批評的人都是
03:24
people who don't realize that China and India,
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都是沒有意識到中國和印度
03:27
instead of having huge amounts of starving people,
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不但不再有巨大數量的處於饑荒狀態的人口，
03:30
are exporting grains.
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而且變成了糧食出口國的人。
03:32
And the irony of this particular system is the
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具有諷刺意味的是，
03:34
place where he did the research, which was Mexico,
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他從事研究的地方-就是墨西哥-卻
03:37
didn't adopt this technology, ignored this
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沒有採用他的技術，而是忽略這一
03:39
technology, talked about why this technology
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技術，他們談論的是為什麽這一技術
03:42
should be thought about, but not really applied.
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應當得到考慮卻不能真的運用。
03:44
And Mexico remains one of the largest grain
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墨西哥仍然是全世界最大的糧食
03:47
importers on the planet because it doesn't apply
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進口國之一，因為它沒有運用
03:50
technology that was discovered in Mexico. And in
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在墨西哥本土發現的技術。實際上，
03:53
fact, hasn't recognized this man, to the point
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墨西哥沒有認可這個人，
03:55
where there aren't statues of this man all over
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在整個墨西哥都沒有他的塑像。
03:58
Mexico. There are in China and India. And the
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在中國和印度卻有他的塑像。
04:01
Institute that this guy ran has now moved to
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這個人管理的研究機構現在搬到了印度。
04:03
India. That is the difference between adopting
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這就是採用技術和討論技術的
04:07
technologies and discussing technologies.
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區別。
04:10
Now, it's not just that this guy fed a huge amount
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現在，不僅僅是關於這個人養活了
04:14
of people in the world. It's that this is the net
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世界上為數眾多的人， 而是關於
04:17
effect in terms of what technology does, if you
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技術可以帶來什麽樣的凈效應，如果你
04:20
understand biology.
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瞭解生物學的話。
04:23
What happened in agriculture? Well, if you take
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農業領域中發生過什麽？如果你觀察
04:24
agriculture over a century, agriculture in about
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一個世紀以來的農業，
04:27
1900 would have been recognizable to somebody
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一千年前從事種植的人是可以辨認出
04:30
planting a thousand years earlier. Yeah, the plows look
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1900年左右的農業的。是的，犁看起來
04:33
different. The machines were tractors or stuff
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不同。使用的機器是拖拉機等機械
04:37
instead of mules, but the farmer would have
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而不是騾子，但是農人能夠
04:40
understood: this is what the guy's doing, this is
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理解，這個人做的是什麽，
04:42
why he's doing it, this is where he's going. What
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他為什麽這麼做，他會得到什麽結果。
04:45
really started to change in agriculture is when
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農業真正開始變化的時候是
04:47
you started moving from this brute force
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你開始從
04:49
engineering and chemistry into biology, and that's
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工程和化學的蠻力向生物學轉變時。
04:51
where you get your productivity increases. And as
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你的生產力是在這裡得到增長的。
04:54
you do that stuff, here's what happens to
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當你從事這種生產時，生產力的變化
04:57
productivity.
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是這樣的。
04:58
Basically, you go from 250 hours to produce 100
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基本上是這樣的，從1950 年到2000年，你生產100 蒲式耳的糧食的時間
05:01
bushels, to 40, to 15, to five. Agricultural labor
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從250小時降到40小時， 再到15小時， 再到5小時。
05:06
productivity increased seven times, 1950 to 2000,
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生產效率提高了七倍。
05:11
whereas the rest of the economy increased about
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而同期經濟平均增長率是大約
05:13
2.5 times. This is an absolutely massive increase
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2.5倍。這絕對是
05:14
in how much is produced per person.
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人均產量的巨大增長。
05:20
The effect of this, of course, is it's not just
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其效果是，當然，不止是
05:22
amber waves of grain, it is mountains of stuff.
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滾滾而來的糧食，而是糧食堆積成山。
05:26
And 50 percent of the EU budget is going to subsidize
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歐共體百分之五十的的預算將會對
05:28
agriculture from mountains of stuff that people
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農業提供補貼。而歐共體的預算是從人們已經過量生產的
05:31
have overproduced.
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堆積成山的糧食中來的。
05:34
This would be a good outcome for energy. And of
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這對能源來說可以是一個好的結果。
05:37
course, by now, you're probably saying to
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當然，聽到這裡，你可能在對你
05:39
yourself, "Self, I thought I came to a talk about
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自己說，“呀，我認為我來是談能源的，
05:44
energy and here's this guy talking about biology."
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這個傢伙卻在這裡談生物。”
05:49
So where's the link between these two things?
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所以，這兩者之間的聯繫是什麽呢？
05:52
One of the ironies of this whole system is we're
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這整個體系的自相矛盾之處是
05:54
discussing what to do about a system that we don't
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我們在討論對如何操作一個我們
05:56
understand. We don't even know what oil is. We
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不瞭解的體系。我們甚至都不知道石油是什麽。
06:01
don't know where oil comes from. I mean,
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我們也不知道石油是從哪裡來的。我的意思是，
06:03
literally, it's still a source of debate what
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準確的說，石油是什麽和石油是從哪裡來的
06:05
this black river of stuff is and where it comes
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還是引起爭論的問題。
06:08
from. The best assumption, and one of the best
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在這個問題上最好的假設，最好的猜測之一是
06:11
guesses in this stuff, is that this stuff comes
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石油是從
06:14
out of this stuff, that these things absorb
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這些東西來的。這些東西吸收
06:18
sunlight, rot under pressure for millions of
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陽光，在數百年的壓力下腐爛，
06:21
years, and you get these black rivers.
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你得到的就是這些黑色的河流。
06:26
Now, the interesting thing about that thesis -- if
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現在，關於這些理論的有趣的事是
06:28
that thesis turns out to be true -- is that oil,
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-如果這個理論是正確的-石油，
06:32
and all hydrocarbons, turned out to be
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和所有的烴，看來是
06:34
concentrated sunlight. And if you think of
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積聚的陽光。如果你想到
06:38
bioenergy, bioenergy isn't ethanol. Bioenergy is
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生物能源，生物能源不是乙醇。生物能源是
06:41
taking the sun, concentrating it in amoebas,
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吸收光能，將其集中在變形蟲身上，
06:44
concentrating it in plants, and maybe that's why
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集中在植物上，可能那就是
06:47
you get these rainbows.
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你得到這些彩虹的原因。
06:50
And as you're looking at this system, if
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當你觀察這個系統的時候，
06:53
hydrocarbons are concentrated sunlight, then
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如果烴是聚集的陽光，那麽
06:57
bioenergy works in a different way. And we've got
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生物能源是以不同的方式產生的。我們已經
07:01
to start thinking of oil and other hydrocarbons as
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開始將石油和其他的烴想成
07:05
part of these solar panels.
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這些太陽能電池板的一部份。
07:09
Maybe that's one of the reasons why if you fly
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可能那就是原因
07:11
over west Texas, the types of wells that you're
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如果你飛過德克薩斯西部，你將會開始見到的這種井
07:15
beginning to see don't look unlike those pictures
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不是和堪薩斯的這些照片
07:19
of Kansas and those irrigated plots.
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和這些灌溉田地沒有相似之處的
07:23
This is how you farm oil. And as you think of
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這就是你怎樣在油田採油。當你想到
07:25
farming oil and how oil has evolved, we started
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採油和石油是怎樣演變的，我們開始
07:29
with this brute force approach. And then what did
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這種採用蠻力的方法。那麽我們學到了
07:33
we learn? Then we learned we had to go bigger. And
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什麽？那麽我們學到了我們不得不擴大規模。
07:36
then what'd we learn? Then we have to go even
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然後我們學到什麽？然後我們不得不再
07:39
bigger. And we are getting really destructive as
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擴大規模。這樣我們在走出去開採生物能源時，
07:43
we're going out and farming this bioenergy.
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我們真的變得有毀滅性了。
07:47
These are the Athabasca tar sands, and there's an
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這些是阿薩巴斯卡油砂， 數量
07:49
enormous amount -- first of mining, the largest
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巨大-首先是開採，
07:52
trucks in the world are working here, and then
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世界上最大的卡車在這裡工作， 然後
07:55
you've got to pull out this black sludge, which is
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你需要弄出這些黑色的污泥，
07:57
basically oil that doesn't flow. It's tied to the
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這些污泥實際上是不會流動的石油。石油是與
08:00
sand. And then you've got to use a lot of steam to
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沙混在一起的。然後你需要用大量的蒸汽
08:02
separate it, which only works at today's oil
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來分離它， 這種方式僅僅是在今天的油價下
08:05
prices.
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才能實現的。
08:07
Coal. Coal turns out to be virtually the same
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煤。煤基本上是同樣的
08:11
stuff. It is probably plants, except that these
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東西。它可能是植物，不同的是它是來自那些
08:15
have been burned and crushed under pressure.
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被燃燒並在壓力下粉碎的植物。
08:19
So you take something like this, you burn it, you
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所以你拿一些這樣的東西，將它點燃，再
08:21
put it under pressure, and likely as not, you get
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將它置於壓力下，很有可能，你會得到
08:23
this. Although, again, I stress: we don't know.
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這個。但是，再一次強調：我們不知道。
08:26
Which is curious as we debate all this stuff. But
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這一事實是我們在辯論所有這些時應該感到奇怪的。
08:29
as you think of coal, this is what burned wheat
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但當你想到煤時,這是燒焦的麥核的樣子，
08:32
kernels look like. Not entirely unlike coal.
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看上去不是完全不像煤。
08:37
And of course, coalmines are very dangerous
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當然，煤礦是非常危險的
08:40
places because in some of these coalmines, you
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地方，因為在有些煤礦中
08:43
get gas. When that gas blows up, people die. So
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有氣體。當這種氣體爆炸時，會死人。所以
08:50
you're producing a biogas out of coal in some
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在有些煤礦中， 你能從煤里生產沼氣，
08:52
mines, but not in others.
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但是另一些煤礦卻不能。
08:55
Any place you see a differential, there're some
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在你看到差異的任何地方， 都會有一些
08:57
interesting questions. There's some questions as
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有趣的問題。有些問題是關於
09:00
to what you should be doing with this stuff. But
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你應當用這種東西來做什麽的。但是
09:02
again, coal. Maybe the same stuff, maybe the same
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再一次說， 煤。 可能是同樣的東西，可能是同樣的系統，
09:06
system, maybe bioenergy, and you're applying
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可能是生物能源，你在運用
09:08
exactly the same technology.
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完全相同的技術。
09:10
Here's your brute force approach. Once you get
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這就是你的使用蠻力方法。一旦你運用
09:13
through your brute force approach, then you just
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了使用蠻力的方式，
09:14
rip off whole mountaintops. And you end up with
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整座山頂就會被夷平。你最終就
09:18
the single largest source of carbon emissions,
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得到了最大的碳排放來源，
09:21
which are coal-fired gas plants. That is probably
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即燃煤天然氣發電廠。那可能
09:25
not the best use of bioenergy.
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不是對生物能源的最好的利用。
09:29
As you think of what are the alternatives to this
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當你在思考這一體系的替代方法時
09:31
system -- it's important to find alternatives
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-找到替代方法是重要的，
09:34
because it turns out that the U.S. is dwindling in
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因為實際上美國的石油儲備
09:37
its petroleum reserves, but it is not dwindling in
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在萎縮，但是煤炭儲備沒有萎縮，
09:39
its coal reserves, nor is China. There are huge
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中國的煤炭儲備也沒有萎縮。
09:44
coal reserves that are sitting out there, and
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煤炭的儲備糧巨大，
09:47
we've got to start thinking of them as biological
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我們需要開始將它們設想成生物
09:49
energy, because if we keep treating them as
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能源，因為如果我們繼續將它們當成
09:51
chemical energy, or engineering energy, we're
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化學能源，或工程能源，我們
09:54
going to be in deep doo-doo.
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將不知道會有什麽大麻煩。
09:59
Gas is a similar issue. Gas is also a biological
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天然氣是一個相似的問題。天然氣也是生物
10:04
product. And as you think of gas, well, you're
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產品。但你想到天然氣時，你認為
10:09
familiar with gas. And here's a different way of
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你很熟悉天然氣。這是一種
10:14
mining coal.
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採煤的不同的方法。
10:17
This is called coal bed methane. Why is this
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這叫做煤床甲烷。為什麼這張
10:20
picture interesting? Because if coal turns out to
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照片有趣呢？因為煤是
10:23
be concentrated plant life, the reason why you may
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濃縮的植物，你可以
10:27
get a differential in gas output between one mine
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在不同的煤礦得到不同的天然氣輸出量的原因-
10:31
and another -- the reason why one mine may blow up
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-一個煤礦可能爆炸
10:33
and another one may not blow up -- may be because
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另一個煤礦可能不會爆炸的原因-可能是因為
10:36
there's stuff eating that stuff and producing gas.
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這個東西吃掉那個東西並產生氣體。
10:42
This is a well-known phenomenon. (Laughter) You
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這是一個眾所周知的現象。（笑聲）你
10:47
eat certain things, you produce a lot of gas. It
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吃某些東西，你會生產大量的氣體。
10:52
may turn out that biological processes in coalmines
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可能煤礦裡的生物過程
10:55
have the same process. If that is true, then
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也是一樣的。如果這是真的，那麼
10:58
one of the ways of getting the energy out of coal
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從煤炭裡得到能源的方法之一
11:00
may not be to rip whole mountaintops off, and it
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可能不是把整個山頂鏟掉，
11:04
may not be to burn coal. It may be to have stuff
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可能不是燃燒煤炭。而可能是用
11:08
process that coal in a biological fashion as you
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生物方法處理煤，如同
11:11
did in agriculture.
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在農業上採用的方法一樣。
11:14
That is what bioenergy is. It is not ethanol. It
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這就是生物能源。生物能源不是乙醇。
11:18
is not subsidies to a few companies. It is not
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不是對一些公司提供補貼。不是
11:21
importing corn into Iowa because you've built so
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因為建造了這麼多的乙醇工廠，
11:24
many of these ethanol plants. It is beginning to
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就進口玉米到愛荷華州。而是開始
11:27
understand the transition that occurred in
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瞭解農業中產生的
11:29
agriculture, from brute force into biological
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從蠻力到生物力量的變遷。
11:32
force. And in the measure that you can do that,
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在那些可以採用的方法中，
11:34
you can clean some stuff, and you can clean it
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你可以清潔一些東西，你可以很快的
11:35
pretty quickly.
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清潔它。
11:37
We already have some indicators of productivity on
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我們在這方面已經有一些提高生產效率的徵兆。
11:40
this stuff. OK, if you put steam into coal fields
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如果你將蒸汽加入已經流動幾了十年的
11:44
or petroleum fields that have been running for
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煤田或油田，
11:47
decades, you can get a really substantial
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你可以得到巨大的，
11:49
increase, like an eight-fold increase, in your
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大約八倍的輸出增長。
11:52
output. This is just the beginning stages of this
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這還只是這種技術的
11:56
stuff.
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初期。
11:57
And as you think of biomaterials, this guy -- who
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當你想到生物材料，這個人-
11:59
did part of the sequencing of the human genome,
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-他參加了人類基因組排序的工作，
12:02
who just doubled the databases of genes and
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剛剛通過環遊世界的方式讓已知的基因和蛋白質庫
12:04
proteins known on earth by sailing around the
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數據翻倍。
12:06
world -- has been thinking about how you structure
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-也在考慮怎樣構建這個體系。
12:10
this. And there's a series of smart people
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許多聰明人都
12:11
thinking about this. And they've been putting
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在考慮它。 他們設立了
12:14
together companies like Synthetic Genomics, like,
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Synthetic GenoMICS， CAMBRIA，CONDON
12:16
a Cambria, like Codon, and what those companies are
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這樣的公司，這些公司
12:20
trying to do is to think of, how do you apply
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試圖做的是考慮怎樣運用
12:23
biological principles to avoid brute force?
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生物學原理來避免蠻力？
12:27
Think of it in the following terms. Think of it as
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用下面的方式來思考。將它看做
12:30
beginning to program stuff for specific purposes.
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開始進行特殊目的編程。
12:34
Think of the cell as a hardware. Think of the
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將細胞看成硬件。將
12:37
genes as a software. And in the measure that you
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基因看成軟件。當你
12:40
begin to think of life as code that is
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開始將生命看成
12:43
interchangeable, that can become energy, that can
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可以互換的代碼，它可以變成能源，可以
12:46
become food, that can become fiber, that can
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變成食物，可以變成纖維，可以
12:48
become human beings, that can become a whole
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變成人，可以變成一系列的
12:50
series of things, then you've got to shift your
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東西。那麼你就會改變你
12:53
approach as to how you're going to structure and
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構建，處理，思考能源問題的方式，
12:55
deal and think about energy in a very different
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採用非常不同的
12:59
way.
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方式來思考能源問題。
13:01
What are the first principles of this stuff and
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這裡最重要的原則是什麽，
13:03
where are we heading? This is one of the gentle
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我們走的路通向哪裡去呢？
13:06
giants on the planet. He's one of the nicest human
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這是這個星球上的一個溫和的巨人。他是你遇到的
13:09
beings you've ever met. His name is Hamilton
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最好的人之一。他的名字是漢密爾頓
13:12
Smith. He won the Nobel for figuring out how to
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斯密斯。他因為找出了怎樣分割基因的方法
13:15
cut genes -- something called restriction enzymes.
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得到了諾貝爾獎-一種叫限制性內切酶的東西。
13:20
He was at Hopkins when he did this, and he's such
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當他做這事時是在霍普金斯大學，他是
13:22
a modest guy that the day he won, his mother
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一個如此謙虛的人，在他得獎的那一天，他的母親
13:25
called him and said, "I didn't realize there was
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打電話說，“我不知道霍普金斯大學還有一個叫漢密爾頓斯密斯
13:28
another Ham Smith at Hopkins. Do you know he just
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的人。你知道他剛剛
13:30
won the Nobel?" (Laughter) I mean, that was Mom,
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得到了諾貝爾獎嗎？”（笑聲）我的意思是，那是他的母親。
13:38
but anyway, this guy is just a class act. You find
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但是無論如何，這個人只是一類人中的一個。
13:41
him at the bench every single day, working on a
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他每天都在工作臺前，
13:44
pipette and building stuff. And one of the things
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用微量吸管工作，建構東西。 這個人在建造的東西中的一個
13:48
this guy just built are these things.
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就是這些東西。
13:50
What is this? This is the first transplant of
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這是什麽呢？這是純DNA的第一次
13:52
naked DNA, where you take an entire DNA operating
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移植，你將整個DNA運作系統從細胞里
13:55
system out of one cell, insert it into a different
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分離出來，將它植入不同的
13:58
cell, and have that cell boot up as a separate
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細胞裡，讓那個細胞成長為一個不同的
14:01
species. That's one month old. You will see stuff
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物種。它一個月大。在下一個月，你會看到和
14:07
in the next month that will be just as important
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這一樣重要的
14:09
as this stuff.
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東西。
14:11
And as you think about this stuff and what the
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當你思考這種東西
14:13
implications of this are, we're going to start not
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及其暗示時，我們將開始不再會
14:16
just converting ethanol from corn with very high
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僅僅使用高補貼將玉米變成乙醇。
14:21
subsidies. We're going to start thinking about
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我們將開始思考生物學進入
14:23
biology entering energy. It is very expensive to
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能源領域。處理這種東西是
14:28
process this stuff, both in economic terms and in
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非常昂貴的，在經濟和能源的意義上
14:32
energy terms.
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都是這樣。
14:34
This is what accumulates in the tar sands of
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這是阿爾貝塔省的油砂裡聚集的東西。
14:36
Alberta. These are sulfur blocks. Because as you
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這些是硫磺塊。因為當你
14:40
separate that petroleum from the sand, and use an
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將石油從沙裡分離出來時，使用蒸汽你
14:43
enormous amount of energy inside that vapor --
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要使用大量的能量
14:47
steam to separate this stuff -- you also have to
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來分離石油-你也不得不
14:49
separate out the sulfur. The difference between
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將硫分離出來。 這是輕原油和重原油
14:51
light crude and heavy crude -- well, it's about 14
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的區別-這區別大約是一桶14美元。
14:54
bucks a barrel. That's why you're building these
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這就是你在建造
14:57
pyramids of sulfur blocks. And by the way, the
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這些硫磺金字塔的原因。順便說一下，
14:59
scale on these things is pretty large.
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它的規模相當大。
15:03
Now, if you can take part of the energy content
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現在， 如果你可以將從事這種工作
15:05
out of doing this, you reduce the system, and you
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消耗的能源減少一部份，你就簡化了體系，
15:09
really do start applying biological principles to
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你就真的開始在將生物學原理用在能源上了。
15:11
energy. This has to be a bridge to the point where
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這是一個橋樑，通過它， 我們可以
15:16
you can get to wind, to the point where you can
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將應用延伸到風能，延伸到
15:18
get to solar, to the point where you can get to
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太陽能，延伸到
15:20
nuclear -- and hopefully you won't build the next
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核能-這樣你就有希望不用再在有地震危險的
15:23
nuclear plant on a beautiful seashore next to an
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美麗的海濱建設
15:26
earthquake fault. (Laughter) Just a thought.
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核電廠了。（笑聲）。只是一個想法。
15:35
But in the meantime, for the next decade at least,
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但是同時，至少下一個十年，
15:39
the name of the game is hydrocarbons. And be that
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遊戲的主角名字的是烴。無論那是
15:42
oil, be that gas, be that coal, this is what we're
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石油，是天然氣，是煤，這是我們正在
15:46
dealing with. And before I make this talk too
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使用的。 在我講得太長之前，
15:50
long, here's what's happening in the current
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這是正在現在的能源體系里
15:55
energy system.
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發生的。
15:57
86 percent of the energy we consume are
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我們消耗的百分之八十六的能源是
15:59
hydrocarbons. That means 86 percent of the stuff we're
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烴。這意味著我們消費的百分之八十六的能源
16:02
consuming are probably processed plants and
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可能是植物和
16:05
amoebas and the rest of the stuff. And there's a
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變形蟲和其他的東西演化而來的。
16:08
role in here for conservation. There's a role in
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在這裡資源保護有它的作用，替代能源有它的作用。
16:10
here for alternative stuff, but we've also got to
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但是我們也要
16:12
get that other portion right.
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把其它的那部份做好。
16:15
How we deal with that other portion is our bridge
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我們怎樣處理那個部份是我們通向
16:17
to the future. And as we think of this bridge to
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未來的橋樑。
16:20
the future, one of the things you should ponder
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你應該思考的一件事是：
16:23
is: we are leaving about two-thirds of the oil today
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我們在這些井裡留下了三分之二的
16:26
inside those wells. So we're spending an enormous
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石油。 所以我們花費了大量的
16:29
amount of money and leaving most of the energy
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金錢，卻讓大部份的能源留在
16:32
down there. Which, of course, requires more energy
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那下面。 這當然需要更多的能源
16:35
to go out and get energy. The ratios become
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來開採能源。 消耗在開採上的能源與產出的能源的比例
16:38
idiotic by the time you get to ethanol. It may
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在你到達提煉乙醇這一步時已經顯得愚蠢了。
16:40
even be a one-to-one ratio on the energy input and
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能源的投入和輸出比例甚至會達到
16:43
the energy output. That is a stupid way of
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一比一。 這樣管理這個體系是一種
16:46
managing this system.
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愚蠢的方法。
16:49
Last point, last graph. One of the things that
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最後一點， 最後一個說明圖。我們要做的
16:53
we've got to do is to stabilize oil prices. This
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一件事是穩定石油價格。
16:57
is what oil prices look like, OK?
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這是石油價格看起來象什麽樣子，好吧？
16:59
This is a very bad system because what happens is
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這是非常糟糕的體系，因為你的
17:02
your hurdle rate gets set very low. People come up
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最低回報率被定得很低。例如，當有人
17:05
with really smart ideas for solar panels, or for
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有真的聰明的關於太陽能電池板，或風能，或別的東西的
17:08
wind, or for something else, and then guess what?
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主意的時候，猜一猜會怎樣？
17:10
The oil price goes through the floor. That company
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油價跌到了最低點。這個公司
17:12
goes out of business, and then you can bring the
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就倒閉，然後你可以再將
17:14
oil price back up.
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油價提高。
17:16
So if I had one closing and modest suggestion,
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所以如果我可以用一個謙虛的建議來結束我的談話
17:20
let's set a stable oil price in Europe and the
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那就是讓我們在歐洲和美國建立一個穩定的油價。
17:22
United States. How do you do that? Well, let's put
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怎麼做呢？讓我們
17:27
a tax on oil that is a non-revenue tax, and it
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對石油徵收一項非收入稅類的稅，
17:29
basically says for the next 20 years, the price of
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基本上就是說下一個二十年，石油的
17:33
oil will be -- whatever you want, 35 bucks, 40
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價格將是-你想要的任何價格，35美元，40美元。
17:36
bucks. If the OPEC price falls below that, we tax
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如果OPEC的價格低於這個價格，我們就
17:40
it. If the OPEC price goes above that, the tax
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收稅。如果OPEC價格高於這個價格，就不
17:43
goes away.
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收稅。
17:46
What does that do for entrepreneurs? What does it
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這對企業家有什麽好處呢？ 這對
17:47
do for companies? It tells people, if you can
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公司有什麽好處呢？ 它告訴人們，如果你可以
17:50
produce energy for less than 35 bucks a barrel, or
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生產價格低於於35美元一桶的能源，或少於
17:53
less than 40 bucks a barrel, or less than 50 bucks
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40美元一桶，或少於50美元
17:55
a barrel -- let's debate it -- you will have a
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一桶-這是我們可以討論的-你將會
17:59
business. But let's not put people through this
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有生意。但是讓我們不要把人們置於
18:01
cycle where it doesn't pay to research because
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這樣的一個循環，即做研究是沒有回報的，因為
18:04
your company will go out of business as OPEC
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你的公司會破產，因為OPEC
18:06
drives alternatives and keeps bioenergy from
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控制了替代能源而讓生物能源
18:09
happening. Thank you.
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不能成功。 謝謝。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Juan Enriquez - FuturistJuan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society.
Why you should listen
A broad thinker who studies the intersections of these fields, Enriquez has a talent for bridging disciplines to build a coherent look ahead. He is the managing director of Excel Venture Management, a life sciences VC firm. He recently published (with Steve Gullans) Evolving Ourselves: How Unnatural Selection and Nonrandom Mutation Are Shaping Life on Earth. The book describes a world where humans increasingly shape their environment, themselves and other species.
Enriquez is a member of the board of Synthetic Genomics, which recently introduced the smallest synthetic living cell. Called “JCVI-syn 3.0,” it has 473 genes (about half the previous smallest cell). The organism would die if one of the genes is removed. In other words, this is the minimum genetic instruction set for a living organism.
Juan Enriquez | Speaker | TED.com