TEDSummit
Bettina Warburg: How the blockchain will radically transform the economy
Bettina Warburg: 区块链将如何彻底改变经济
Filmed:
Readability: 5.1
3,779,189 views
让我们向“分散式经济”问好-区块链将要改变一切。Bettina Warburg清晰描述了”区块链“这个复杂（且令人困惑的）的技术，她告诉我们随着”区块链“技术的出现，我们将不再需要通过银行和政府这样的集中机构来促成交易，并将旧时代商业和金融模式演变成一个全新有趣的模式：一个分散、透明、自主的交易系统。
Bettina Warburg - Blockchain entrepreneur and researcher
Bettina Warburg is a blockchain researcher, entrepreneur and educator. A political scientist by training, she has a deep passion for the intersection of politics and technology. Full bio
Bettina Warburg is a blockchain researcher, entrepreneur and educator. A political scientist by training, she has a deep passion for the intersection of politics and technology. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Economists have been exploring
people's behavior for hundreds of years:
people's behavior for hundreds of years:
0
1000
4960
经济学家已经研究人类行为数百年的时间了，
00:18
how we make decisions,
1
6880
1576
研究我们如何做决定，
00:20
how we act individually and in groups,
2
8480
3056
我们作为个人和群体时如何表现，
00:23
how we exchange value.
3
11560
1720
我们如何交换价值。
他们还研究促进我们交易的机构，
00:26
They've studied the institutions
that facilitate our trade,
that facilitate our trade,
4
14760
3456
00:30
like legal systems,
5
18240
1416
例如法制系统，
00:31
corporations,
6
19680
1240
公司，
00:33
marketplaces.
7
21520
1200
交易市场。
00:35
But there is a new,
technological institution
technological institution
8
23600
3456
但现在有一种全新的技术，
00:39
that will fundamentally change
how we exchange value,
how we exchange value,
9
27080
4016
它能从根本上改变我们交易的方式，
它叫做“区块链”。
00:43
and it's called the blockchain.
10
31120
1480
00:46
Now, that's a pretty bold statement,
11
34040
2656
现在来说，这是个很大胆的陈述，
00:48
but if you take nothing else
away from this talk,
away from this talk,
12
36720
3136
但是如果你在这里什么都没听懂的话，
00:51
I actually want you to remember
13
39880
1736
我仍希望各位记得
00:53
that while blockchain technology
is relatively new,
is relatively new,
14
41640
3936
即使“区块链”技术相对很新鲜，
00:57
it's also a continuation
of a very human story,
of a very human story,
15
45600
4376
但它也是我们人类故事的一个延续，
故事是这样的：
01:02
and the story is this.
16
50000
1520
作为人类，我们一直在寻找
01:04
As humans, we find ways
17
52080
2016
那些能降低彼此之间不确定性的方式，
01:06
to lower uncertainty about one another
18
54120
2816
以便我们能够进行交易。
01:08
so that we can exchange value.
19
56960
1800
01:13
Now, one of the first people
to really explore the idea
to really explore the idea
20
61080
3495
目前为止，最先真正在经济学里
研究如何将制度作为工具
01:16
of institutions as a tool in economics
21
64599
3177
来降低我们彼此之间不确定性
01:19
to lower our uncertainties
about one another
about one another
22
67800
2456
以便我们能够交易的人中，
01:22
and be able to do trade
23
70280
1896
有一位是诺贝尔经济学奖获得者
道格拉斯－诺斯。
道格拉斯－诺斯。
01:24
was the Nobel economist Douglass North.
24
72200
2640
01:27
He passed away at the end of 2015,
25
75680
2136
他于2015年年底辞世，
01:29
but North pioneered what's called
"new institutional economics."
"new institutional economics."
26
77840
4720
但他开创了“新制度经济学”。
01:35
And what he meant by institutions
were really just formal rules
were really just formal rules
27
83120
4176
他所说的制度是指那些正式的规则，
比如说宪法，
01:39
like a constitution,
28
87320
1976
01:41
and informal constraints, like bribery.
29
89320
2920
还有一些非正式的规则，例如贿赂。
01:45
These institutions are really the grease
30
93280
2896
这些制度是带动
我们经济发展的润滑剂。
01:48
that allow our economic
wheels to function,
wheels to function,
31
96200
2936
01:51
and we can see this play out
over the course of human history.
over the course of human history.
32
99160
3120
这些制度在整个人类历史上
一直扮演重要角色。
一直扮演重要角色。
01:55
If we think back to when we were
hunter-gatherer economies,
hunter-gatherer economies,
33
103120
3456
如果我们回想一下，
当我们还处于采集狩猎经济时代时，
当我们还处于采集狩猎经济时代时，
01:58
we really just traded
within our village structure.
within our village structure.
34
106600
2936
我们只能在自己村落里做交易，
02:01
We had some informal constraints in place,
35
109560
2416
交易在空间上受到了一些非正式的限制，
02:04
but we enforced
all of our trade with violence
all of our trade with violence
36
112000
3536
但是我们会用暴力或是社会影响力
强制进行这些交易。
02:07
or social repercussions.
37
115560
1880
02:09
As our societies grew more complex
38
117960
2336
当我们的社会变得更加复杂，
02:12
and our trade routes grew more distant,
39
120320
3216
并且我们交易的路线变得更加遥远，
02:15
we built up more formal institutions,
40
123560
3016
我们建立了更多的正式机构，
02:18
institutions like banks for currency,
41
126600
3336
例如货币银行，
02:21
governments, corporations.
42
129960
2696
政府，公司。
在交易的不确定性和复杂性增加
02:24
These institutions
helped us manage our trade
helped us manage our trade
43
132680
2536
以及我们的个人掌控力下降的情况下。
02:27
as the uncertainty
and the complexity grew,
and the complexity grew,
44
135240
3016
02:30
and our personal control was much lower.
45
138280
2600
这些机构能帮助我们管理我们的交易。
最终，随着互联网的发展，
我们在网上也建立了同样的机构。
我们在网上也建立了同样的机构。
02:33
Eventually with the internet,
we put these same institutions online.
we put these same institutions online.
46
141560
4280
02:38
We built platform marketplaces
like Amazon, eBay, Alibaba,
like Amazon, eBay, Alibaba,
47
146600
4376
我们建立了交易平台，
如亚马逊，易趣、阿里巴巴，
如亚马逊，易趣、阿里巴巴，
02:43
just faster institutions
that act as middlemen
that act as middlemen
48
151000
3536
这些运作更快速的机构
扮演了中间人的角色，
扮演了中间人的角色，
促进了人们的经济活动。
02:46
to facilitate human economic activity.
49
154560
2920
正如道格拉斯.诺斯预测的，
02:51
As Douglass North saw it,
50
159840
2136
02:54
institutions are a tool
to lower uncertainty
to lower uncertainty
51
162000
3656
制度是用来降低不确定性的工具，
让我们可以在社会中建立联系
并交换各种有价值的东西。
并交换各种有价值的东西。
02:57
so that we can connect and exchange
all kinds of value in society.
all kinds of value in society.
52
165680
4320
03:02
And I believe we are now entering
53
170840
2336
我还相信我们现在正在进入
一个更深远更重大的演变，
03:05
a further and radical evolution
54
173200
2976
人们之间的互动和交易方式将改变。
03:08
of how we interact and trade,
55
176200
2456
因为，这是第一次我们可以降低不确定
03:10
because for the first time,
we can lower uncertainty
we can lower uncertainty
56
178680
3576
不是通过政治或者经济机构，
03:14
not just with political
and economic institutions,
and economic institutions,
57
182280
3576
03:17
like our banks, our corporations,
our governments,
our governments,
58
185880
3736
例如银行，公司和政府，
而是单独依靠技术做到这点。
03:21
but we can do it with technology alone.
59
189640
2360
03:25
So what is the blockchain?
60
193920
2016
所以什么是“区块链”呢？
“区块链”技术是一种分散式数据库，
03:27
Blockchain technology
is a decentralized database
is a decentralized database
61
195960
4056
它通过对等网络
03:32
that stores a registry
of assets and transactions
of assets and transactions
62
200040
3536
存储使用者的资产登记和交易信息，
03:35
across a peer-to-peer network.
63
203600
1800
基本来说，这是一个公开的记录系统，
03:38
It's basically a public registry
64
206160
2136
上面记录了谁拥有什么和谁交易过什么。
03:40
of who owns what and who transacts what.
65
208320
2840
03:43
The transactions are secured
through cryptography,
through cryptography,
66
211920
2976
交易记录是通过密码被安全保护的，
03:46
and over time, that transaction history
gets locked in blocks of data
gets locked in blocks of data
67
214920
5776
时间一过，交易记录会被封存在数据块里，
然后数据块会进行加密连接并安全封存。
03:52
that are then cryptographically
linked together and secured.
linked together and secured.
68
220720
3480
03:57
This creates and immutable,
unforgeable record
unforgeable record
69
225360
4176
这就创建了一个不可改变且不会丢失的记录，
包含了所有这个网络下的交易记录。
04:01
of all of the transactions
across this network.
across this network.
70
229560
3816
这些记录在这个网络的每台电脑上
都进行了备份。
都进行了备份。
04:05
This record is replicated
on every computer that uses the network.
on every computer that uses the network.
71
233400
4400
04:11
It's not an app.
72
239240
1240
这不是一个应用程序，
也不是一个公司。
04:13
It's not a company.
73
241080
1240
04:15
I think it's closest in description
to something like Wikipedia.
to something like Wikipedia.
74
243120
3760
我觉得最接近的描述
应该像是维基百科。
应该像是维基百科。
04:19
We can see everything on Wikipedia.
75
247800
2056
我们在维基百科上能看到每样东西，
04:21
It's a composite view that's constantly
changing and being updated.
changing and being updated.
76
249880
4040
它是不断变化和更新的复合面貌。
04:27
We can also track those changes
over time on Wikipedia,
over time on Wikipedia,
77
255880
3656
我们也可以在维基百科上
实时跟踪这些变化，
实时跟踪这些变化，
04:31
and we can create our own wikis,
78
259560
2296
我们也可以创建我们自己的维基。
04:33
because at their core,
they're just a data infrastructure.
they're just a data infrastructure.
79
261880
2840
因为他们的核心，
只是数据的基础架构。
只是数据的基础架构。
04:38
On Wikipedia, it's an open platform
that stores words and images
that stores words and images
80
266600
5496
维基百科是一个开放的平台，
储存着文字和图片，
储存着文字和图片，
以及随时间更新的数据。
04:44
and the changes to that data over time.
81
272120
2480
04:47
On the blockchain,
82
275520
1456
“区块链”，
04:49
you can think of it
as an open infrastructure
as an open infrastructure
83
277000
2936
你也可以把它当成一个开放的基础设施架构，
上面储存着各种各样的资产。
04:51
that stores many kinds of assets.
84
279960
2680
04:55
It stores the history of custodianship,
85
283760
2736
它存储了资产的履历，包含资产的管理者、
04:58
ownership and location
86
286520
2216
拥有者和地点等变动信息。
05:00
for assets like
the digital currency Bitcoin,
the digital currency Bitcoin,
87
288760
3656
这些资产包括像比特币那样的资产，
以及其他数字资产，
05:04
other digital assets
88
292440
1576
05:06
like a title of ownership of IP.
89
294040
3320
比如一个网络IP的所有权。
05:10
It could be a certificate, a contract,
90
298480
3136
它可以是一个证书、一个合同，
现实世界的物件，
05:13
real world objects,
91
301640
1256
05:14
even personal identifiable information.
92
302920
2800
甚至是个人的身份信息。
05:19
There are of course other
technical details to the blockchain,
technical details to the blockchain,
93
307080
3856
当然“区块链”还有其他的技术细节，
05:22
but at its core, that's how it works.
94
310960
2016
但它的核心是这样运作的。
05:25
It's this public registry
that stores transactions in a network
that stores transactions in a network
95
313000
4336
它是公开的记录系统，
存储着该网络的所有交易记录，
存储着该网络的所有交易记录，
05:29
and is replicated so that it's very secure
and hard to tamper with.
and hard to tamper with.
96
317360
4200
而且它可以复制到网络中的每台电脑，
因此它非常安全，很难被篡改。
因此它非常安全，很难被篡改。
05:35
Which brings me to my point
97
323120
2136
这就引申出我要说的重点，
”区块链“可以如何降低”不确定性“，
05:37
of how blockchains lower uncertainty
98
325280
3056
05:40
and how they therefore promise
to transform our economic systems
to transform our economic systems
99
328360
4136
以及他们如何因此彻底地
改变我们的经济体系。
05:44
in radical ways.
100
332520
1200
05:47
So uncertainty is kind of a big term
101
335880
2336
“不确定性”在经济上，
似乎是一个大术语，
05:50
in economics,
102
338240
1376
05:51
but I want to go through three forms of it
103
339640
2056
但是我想通过三个方面来介绍
我们日常交易中几乎都会遇到的
不确定性问题，
不确定性问题，
05:53
that we face in almost all
of our everyday transactions,
of our everyday transactions,
104
341720
3376
以及”区域块“在这些问题中可以扮演的角色。
05:57
where blockchains can play a role.
105
345120
2096
我们面对的不确定性例如：
我们不知在跟谁交易，
我们不知在跟谁交易，
05:59
We face uncertainties
like not knowing who we're dealing with,
like not knowing who we're dealing with,
106
347240
3376
交易过程不透明，
06:02
not having visibility into a transaction
107
350640
2816
还有如果出现问题我们不知如何求助。
06:05
and not having recourse
if things go wrong.
if things go wrong.
108
353480
2920
06:09
So let's take the first example,
not knowing who we're dealing with.
not knowing who we're dealing with.
109
357520
3360
那么我们来先谈谈第一条，不知在跟谁交易。
06:13
Say I want to buy
a used smartphone on eBay.
a used smartphone on eBay.
110
361720
3360
比如说我想在易趣上买个二手手机，
06:17
The first thing I'm going to do
is look up who I'm buying from.
is look up who I'm buying from.
111
365760
3320
我要做的第一件事就是确认我要跟谁买。
06:21
Are they a power user?
112
369600
1736
他们是超级用户吗？
06:23
Do they have great reviews and ratings,
or do they have no profile at all?
or do they have no profile at all?
113
371360
4120
他们有收到好评吗？
还是说根本没有他们的介绍？
还是说根本没有他们的介绍？
06:28
Reviews, ratings, checkmarks:
114
376960
2776
评价，打分，核查标记：
06:31
these are the attestations
about our identities
about our identities
115
379760
3616
这些是我们今天用来拼凑
对方身份信息的证据，
06:35
that we cobble together today
116
383400
1616
这些信息用来降低对方身份的不确定性。
06:37
and use to lower uncertainty
about who we're dealing with.
about who we're dealing with.
117
385040
3440
06:41
But the problem is
they're very fragmented.
they're very fragmented.
118
389840
3016
但问题是这些信息非常零碎，
想想你个人就有多少份简介。
06:44
Think about how many profiles you have.
119
392880
2320
06:48
Blockchains allow for us
to create an open, global platform
to create an open, global platform
120
396520
5496
”区块链“可以让我们创建
一个开放的、全球的平台，
一个开放的、全球的平台，
06:54
on which to store any attestation
about any individual
about any individual
121
402040
4376
可以存储来自任何来源的
个人身份证明信息。
06:58
from any source.
122
406440
1400
07:00
This allows us to create a user-controlled
123
408480
3296
这样，我们创建了一个用户控制的
便携的身份证明。
07:03
portable identity.
124
411800
1360
07:07
More than a profile,
125
415800
1896
这不只是一个简介，
07:09
it means you can selectively reveal
126
417720
3296
它意味着你可以选择性地揭示
你的不同个人属性
07:13
the different attributes about you
127
421040
1936
07:15
that help facilitate trade or interaction,
128
423000
3296
以便交易或者互动。
例如想证明政府给你发了一个身份证，
07:18
for instance that a government
issued you an ID,
issued you an ID,
129
426320
2856
或者证明你超过21岁，
07:21
or that you're over 21,
130
429200
2256
07:23
by revealing the cryptographic proof
131
431480
2616
只要揭示相关的密码凭证，
07:26
that these details exist
and are signed off on.
and are signed off on.
132
434120
2880
就可证明这些信息是
真实存在并且通过签字的。
真实存在并且通过签字的。
07:30
Having this kind of portable identity
133
438960
2056
有了这种连接真实与数字世界的
07:33
around the physical world
and the digital world
and the digital world
134
441040
3016
便携式身份证明，
意味着我们可以用一种全新的方式
07:36
means we can do all kinds of human trade
135
444080
3296
来做任何类型的交易。
07:39
in a totally new way.
136
447400
1400
07:42
So I've talked about how blockchains
could lower uncertainty
could lower uncertainty
137
450600
2896
我阐述完”区块链“在我们跟谁交易方面
是如何降低不确定性的。
07:45
in who we're dealing with.
138
453520
1536
第二个我们经常遇到的不确定性问题
07:47
The second uncertainty that we often face
139
455080
2576
是交易过程缺乏透明度。
07:49
is just not having transparency
into our interactions.
into our interactions.
140
457680
3200
07:53
Say you're going to send me
that smartphone by mail.
that smartphone by mail.
141
461600
2736
比如说你要给我邮寄智能手机
07:56
I want some degree of transparency.
142
464360
1696
我想要有一定的透明度。
07:58
I want to know that the product I bought
is the same one that arrives in the mail
is the same one that arrives in the mail
143
466080
4296
我想知道我买的东西跟寄到我邮箱里的东西
是否是同一个东西，
是否是同一个东西，
还有一些关于这个东西邮寄过程的记录。
08:02
and that there's some record
for how it got to me.
for how it got to me.
144
470400
2376
08:04
This is true not just
for electronics like smartphones,
for electronics like smartphones,
145
472800
2616
不仅像智能手机这样的电子产品如此，
08:07
but for many kinds of goods and data,
146
475440
3176
很多类型的产品和数据也适用，
08:10
things like medicine, luxury goods,
147
478640
2640
例如药物，奢侈品，
08:14
any kind of data or product
that we don't want tampered with.
that we don't want tampered with.
148
482000
3520
以及任何我们不想被掉包的数据或产品。
08:18
The problem in many companies,
149
486880
2216
很多公司都有这个问题，
08:21
especially those that produce
something complicated like a smartphone,
something complicated like a smartphone,
150
489120
3336
尤其是那些生产像智能手机这种复杂产品的公司，
他们通过一个水平的供货链，
08:24
is they're managing
all of these different vendors
all of these different vendors
151
492480
2496
来管理所有不同的供应商。
08:27
across a horizontal supply chain.
152
495000
1880
08:30
All of these people
that go into making a product,
that go into making a product,
153
498240
2576
参与产品制造的所有相关人士，
他们没有同一份数据库。
08:32
they don't have the same database.
154
500840
1656
他们不使用同一套基础数据架构，
08:34
They don't use the same infrastructure,
155
502520
2016
08:36
and so it becomes really hard to see
transparently a product evolve over time.
transparently a product evolve over time.
156
504560
5120
因此很难看到一个产品是如何随时间变化的。
08:43
Using the blockchain, we can create
157
511840
1935
利用区块链，我们可以在
08:45
a shared reality
across nontrusting entities.
across nontrusting entities.
158
513799
3760
在陌生的个体之间
创建一个共享的事实。
创建一个共享的事实。
08:50
By this I mean
159
518640
1216
我的意思是
08:51
all of these nodes in the network
do not need to know each other
do not need to know each other
160
519880
3376
所有在这个网络里的的节点
不需要互相认识，
不需要互相认识，
或者互相信任，
08:55
or trust each other,
161
523280
1416
因为他们都有能力
08:56
because they each have the ability
162
524720
2136
自己来监控和确认生产链。
08:58
to monitor and validate
the chain for themselves.
the chain for themselves.
163
526880
3080
09:03
Think back to Wikipedia.
164
531040
1736
回看一下维基百科。
09:04
It's a shared database,
165
532800
2176
它是一个共享的数据库，
即使它同时拥有很多不同的读者
09:07
and even though it has multiple readers
166
535000
2816
和不同作者，
09:09
and multiple writers at the same time,
167
537840
2096
但是只有一个事实。
09:11
it has one single truth.
168
539960
1720
09:14
So we can create that using blockchains.
169
542720
2096
我们可以利用区块链来创建类似的系统。
09:16
We can create a decentralized database
that has the same efficiency of a monopoly
that has the same efficiency of a monopoly
170
544840
5976
我们可以创建一个分散的数据库，
让它有跟垄断一样的效果，
让它有跟垄断一样的效果，
但不用真的创建中心管理机构。
09:22
without actually creating
that central authority.
that central authority.
171
550840
2680
09:26
So all of these vendors,
all sorts of companies,
all sorts of companies,
172
554200
2416
因此所有的供应商，所有类型的公司，
09:28
can interact using the same database
without trusting one another.
without trusting one another.
173
556640
3960
不需要相互信任，
都可以使用这个相同的数据库，
都可以使用这个相同的数据库，
09:34
It means for consumers,
we can have a lot more transparency.
we can have a lot more transparency.
174
562200
3536
对消费者来说，
我们对产品就有了更多的透明度。
我们对产品就有了更多的透明度。
当一个现实世界的东西寄出时，
09:37
As a real-world object travels along,
175
565760
2136
我们可以它的数字认证或者标记
在区块链上变动
在区块链上变动
09:39
we can see its digital certificate
or token move on the blockchain,
or token move on the blockchain,
176
567920
5176
随着它的移动而添加记录值。
09:45
adding value as it goes.
177
573120
1720
09:48
This is a whole new world
in terms of our visibility.
in terms of our visibility.
178
576360
3840
就我们的能见度而言，
这是一个全新的世界。
这是一个全新的世界。
09:53
So I've talked about how blockchains
can lower our uncertainties about identity
can lower our uncertainties about identity
179
581720
4600
现在我已经描述了区块链
如何在身份认证方面降低不确定性
如何在身份认证方面降低不确定性
09:59
and how they change
what we mean about transparency
what we mean about transparency
180
587240
3216
以及如何改变供应链中
长距离和复杂贸易中的透明度。
10:02
in long distances and complex trades,
like in a supply chain.
like in a supply chain.
181
590480
3760
10:07
The last uncertainty that we often face
182
595520
2096
最后我们经常遇到
也是一个最难限制的“不确定性”是
也是一个最难限制的“不确定性”是
10:09
is one of the most open-ended,
and it's reneging.
and it's reneging.
183
597640
2640
违约问题。
如果你不给我寄手机怎么办？
10:12
What if you don't send me the smartphone?
184
600920
2496
10:15
Can I get my money back?
185
603440
1560
我能拿回我的钱吗？
10:17
Blockchains allow us to write code,
186
605800
3696
区块链让我们可以在个体之间，
写代码
10:21
binding contracts,
187
609520
1696
建合约
10:23
between individuals
188
611240
1656
10:24
and then guarantee
that those contracts will bear out
that those contracts will bear out
189
612920
3656
还担保在没有第三方介入的情况下
这些合约就能履行。
10:28
without a third party enforcer.
190
616600
1960
10:31
So if we look at the smartphone example,
you could think about escrow.
you could think about escrow.
191
619720
3896
因此如果我们来看手机的例子，
你可能会想到第三方托管。
你可能会想到第三方托管。
你花钱买这个手机，
10:35
You are financing that phone,
192
623640
2096
10:37
but you don't need to release the funds
193
625760
2536
但你不必在尚未确认
所有合同条件都符合
所有合同条件都符合
并拿到手机前，
10:40
until you can verify
that all the conditions have been met.
that all the conditions have been met.
194
628320
2816
把钱付给卖家。
10:43
You got the phone.
195
631160
1200
10:46
I think this is one
of the most exciting ways
of the most exciting ways
196
634240
2416
我觉得这是区块链在降低不确定性方面
最让人兴奋的地方。
10:48
that blockchains lower our uncertainties,
197
636680
2440
10:51
because it means to some degree
198
639840
1576
因为这意味着，在某种层面上，
10:53
we can collapse institutions
and their enforcement.
and their enforcement.
199
641440
3600
我们可以不再需要
通过机构来保证交易执行了，
通过机构来保证交易执行了，
10:59
It means a lot of human economic activity
200
647720
2696
意味着有更多的人类经济活动，
可以自动地得到担保抵押，
11:02
can get collateralized and automated,
201
650440
5016
而将很多人为干扰因素局限在外边，
11:07
and push a lot of human
intervention to the edges,
intervention to the edges,
202
655480
3056
11:10
the places where information moves
from the real world to the blockchain.
from the real world to the blockchain.
203
658560
3960
信息从真实世界进入到区块链后
就不再受干扰。
就不再受干扰。
11:16
I think what would probably
floor Douglass North
floor Douglass North
204
664880
2456
我觉得这个技术的使用，
11:19
about this use of technology
205
667360
2376
会让道格拉斯.诺斯感到冲击的是
11:21
is the fact that the very thing
that makes it work,
that makes it work,
206
669760
3016
”区块链“技术真的办到了他说的事情。
而让”区块链“保持安全和正确的
11:24
the very thing that keeps the blockchain
secure and verified,
secure and verified,
207
672800
4536
恰恰就是我们彼此之间的不信任。
11:29
is our mutual distrust.
208
677360
1960
11:33
So rather than all of our uncertainties
209
681600
3096
因此我们不再需要让所有的不确定性
拖慢我们的脚步，
11:36
slowing us down
210
684720
1616
11:38
and requiring institutions
211
686360
2496
或是建立一些机构
像银行，政府，公司，
11:40
like banks, our governments,
our corporations,
our corporations,
212
688880
3080
11:45
we can actually harness
all of that collective uncertainty
all of that collective uncertainty
213
693360
4376
实际上我们可以驾驭这些所有的不确定性，
并用它进行更多的合作和交换，而且更快更开放。
11:49
and use it to collaborate and exchange
more and faster and more open.
more and faster and more open.
214
697760
5600
11:56
Now, I don't want you
to get the impression
to get the impression
215
704800
2056
现在，我不想你有这样一个印象
以为区块链可以解决任何事情。
11:58
that the blockchain
is the solution to everything,
is the solution to everything,
216
706880
2376
12:01
even though the media has said
that it's going to end world poverty,
that it's going to end world poverty,
217
709280
4920
虽然有媒体称它将消灭世界贫穷，
12:07
it's also going to solve
the counterfeit drug problem
the counterfeit drug problem
218
715840
2736
将要解决毒品问题，
还有拯救热带雨林的潜力。
12:10
and potentially save the rainforest.
219
718600
2200
12:14
The truth is, this technology
is in its infancy,
is in its infancy,
220
722320
3976
但事实是，这个技术还处于起步阶段，
在我们真正理解所有
12:18
and we're going to need to see
a lot of experiments take place
a lot of experiments take place
221
726320
3216
”区域块“技术在经济上的应用案例之前，
12:21
and probably fail
222
729560
1416
12:23
before we truly understand
all of the use cases
all of the use cases
223
731000
3536
我们还需观察许多实验的结果，
也有可能会失败。
12:26
for our economy.
224
734560
1200
12:29
But there are tons of people
working on this,
working on this,
225
737240
2176
但是有很多人正在从事这方面的研究，
12:31
from financial institutions
226
739440
1696
从金融机构，
到技术公司，新兴公司和学校。
12:33
to technology companies,
start-ups and universities.
start-ups and universities.
227
741160
3160
其中的一个原因就是
这不仅仅是一个经济方面的演变，
这不仅仅是一个经济方面的演变，
12:37
And one of the reasons is
that it's not just an economic evolution.
that it's not just an economic evolution.
228
745120
4936
这也是计算机科学方面的创新。
12:42
It's also an innovation
in computer science.
in computer science.
229
750080
3720
12:49
Blockchains give us
the technological capability
the technological capability
230
757360
3456
“区块链”提供我们一个技术能力
12:52
of creating a record of human exchange,
231
760840
3576
使我们能够创建交易记录，
货币交换的记录，
12:56
of exchange of currency,
232
764440
1560
12:58
of all kinds of digital
and physical assets,
and physical assets,
233
766720
3696
各种数据和物质资产的记录，
甚至是我们的个人属性记录，
13:02
even of our own personal attributes,
234
770440
2576
它用一个全新的方式进行记录。
13:05
in a totally new way.
235
773040
1320
13:07
So in some ways,
236
775720
1336
所以在某些方面来说，
13:09
they become a technological institution
237
777080
2976
他们变成了一个技术机构，
它拥有我们以往社会中用到的传统机构的
13:12
that has a lot of the benefits
238
780080
1776
13:13
of the traditional institutions
we're used to using in society,
we're used to using in society,
239
781880
3200
很多优点。
13:18
but it does this in a decentralized way.
240
786200
2920
但它是通过一个分散的方式达成的。
13:22
It does this by converting
a lot of our uncertainties
a lot of our uncertainties
241
790360
3536
它将很多的不确定性
转化为确定。
13:25
into certainties.
242
793920
1200
13:28
So I think we need to start
preparing ourselves,
preparing ourselves,
243
796360
3536
所以我认为我们要开始准备了，
因为我们即将面对这样一个世界，
13:31
because we are about to face a world
244
799920
2536
13:34
where distributed, autonomous institutions
245
802480
3136
这个世界里，分散的、自主式的机构
13:37
have quite a significant role.
246
805640
2000
将扮演相当重要的角色。
13:40
Thank you.
247
808600
1216
谢谢
13:41
(Applause)
248
809840
2360
（掌声）
13:50
Bruno Giussani: Thank you, Bettina.
249
818400
1667
Bruno Giussani: 谢谢 Bettina.
13:52
I think I understood that it's coming,
250
820880
3696
我觉得我能理解”区块链“将要到来，
它提供了很多潜在的机会，
13:56
it offers a lot of potential,
251
824600
1896
13:58
and it's complex.
252
826520
2176
而且很复杂。
14:00
What is your estimate
for the rate of adoption?
for the rate of adoption?
253
828720
5080
你预计”区域块“的采用率会是怎样呢？
14:07
Bettina Warburg: I think
that's a really good question.
that's a really good question.
254
835120
2616
Bettina Warburg: 这是个好问题。
我的实验大部分
14:09
My lab is pretty much focused
255
837760
1416
14:11
on going the enterprise
and government route first,
and government route first,
256
839200
3456
先从企业和政府方面入手，
14:14
because in reality,
blockchain is a complex technology.
blockchain is a complex technology.
257
842680
3536
因为在现实中，区块链是个很复杂的技术，
在座有多少人是真正理解因特网的运作呢？
14:18
How many of you actually understand
how the internet works?
how the internet works?
258
846240
2776
14:21
But you use it every day,
259
849040
1656
但是你们每天都在使用，
14:22
so I think we're sort of facing
the same John Sculley idea
the same John Sculley idea
260
850720
3776
所以我觉得我们在面对
約翰．史考利（前苹果公司执行官）所说的情况，
約翰．史考利（前苹果公司执行官）所说的情况，
14:26
of technology should either be
invisible or beautiful,
invisible or beautiful,
261
854520
3656
科技要么最好让人看不到要么让人觉得很美，
14:30
and blockchain is kind of
neither of those things right now,
neither of those things right now,
262
858200
3856
而区块链目前两样都不具备。
14:34
so it's better suited
for either really early adopters
for either really early adopters
263
862080
3976
所以它更适合于早期使用者
这种人既能接受它，也能修改它，
14:38
who kind of get it and can tinker around
264
866080
2216
14:40
or for finding those best use cases
265
868320
2976
或者用来从中找到最佳使用情景，
比如企业或政府层级的用户
14:43
like identity or asset tracking
or smart contracts
or smart contracts
266
871320
3176
14:46
that can be used at that level
of an enterprise or government.
of an enterprise or government.
267
874520
4016
可以用来做身份证明、资产追踪，或者智能合同。
BG: 谢谢，谢谢你来到TED
14:50
BG: Thank you. Thanks for coming to TED.
268
878560
1905
14:52
BW: Thanks.
269
880489
1207
BW:谢谢
14:53
(Applause)
270
881720
2400
(掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bettina Warburg - Blockchain entrepreneur and researcherBettina Warburg is a blockchain researcher, entrepreneur and educator. A political scientist by training, she has a deep passion for the intersection of politics and technology.
Why you should listen
A graduate of both Georgetown and Oxford, Bettina Warburg started her career as a political scientist and public foresight researcher at a prominent Silicon Valley think tank. Today, she has taken her skills as a researcher and scientist and is applying them toward an entrepreneurial career by co-founding a venture studio business called Animal Ventures. There, she spends most of her time incubating new startup ideas, advising Fortune 500 clients, governments and universities in developing minimum viable products, and strategizing around blockchain, artificial intelligence, industrial internet of things and digital platforms.
Warburg is the executive producer of a Silicon Valley tech show called Tech on Politics, interviewing some of the world's most influential political operatives, entrepreneurs, government official, and the creators of some of the most exciting digital products on the market.
Warburg recently launched a new Blockchain education course called "The Basics of Blockchain." The hope is that this course will help spread the body of blockchain knowledge, inspire a new generation of entrepreneurs and get more people ready for the coming revolution.
Bettina Warburg | Speaker | TED.com