Alex Edmans: What to trust in a "post-truth" world
أليكس إدمانز: بماذا يمكننا الثقة في عالم "ما وراء الحقيقة"
Alex Edmans uses rigorous academic research to influence real-life business practices -- in particular, how companies can pursue purpose as well as profit. Full bio
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and she loved skateboarding.
كانت تحب التزلج
brain cancer and four months to live.
الدماغ وأربعة أشهر للعيش
and radiotherapy had no effect.
لم يكن لهم أي تأثير
for her brother, who had autism,
الذي كان يعاني من مرض التوحد
who had multiple sclerosis.
التصلب المتعدد
with meditation
for fruit and vegetables.
shared and reached millions of people.
ووصلت الى ملايين الاشخاص
traditional medicine
a healthy eating app,
في أغسطس 2013
in the first month.
without ever checking if it was true.
of confirmation bias.
if it confirms what we'd like to be true.
كانت تعزز لما نود ان يكون صحيحا
that contradicts it.
that we share and we ignore?
والقصص التي نتجاهلها؟
in health advice.
في الإستشارات الصحية
word of 2016 was "post-truth."
كانت "ما وراء الحقيقة"
in a post-truth world
في عالم ماوراء الحقيقة
on checking the facts.
في التدقيق على الحقائق
the facts is not enough.
لا يكفي
fundamental techniques in statistics.
أكثر التقنيات الأساسية في الإحصاء
support the theory?"
النظرية؟"
that the theory is true?
أن النظرية صحيحة؟
"Is the data consistent with the theory?"
"هل تتطابق البيانات مع النظرية؟"
supports the theory.
but forgotten third term --
with rival theories.
مع نظريات منافسة
we never consider the rival theories,
لا نأخذ النظريات المنافسة في عين الإعتبار
of our own pet theory.
Does Belle's story support the theory
قصة بيل نظرية
with diet curing cancer?"
الحمية تعالج السرطان؟"
we'd see stories like Belle's.
سوف نرى قصص أخرى مثل قصة بيل
a patient apparently self-cured
ذاتيا على ما يبدو
in the first place.
بالخطأ في المقام الأول
was bad for your health,
مضراً بصحتك
who lived until 100.
عاش الى عمر المئة
was good for your income,
جيداً لزيادة دخلك
who didn't go to university.
لم يدرس في جامعة
is not that it was false.
أنها غير صحيحة
where diet alone failed,
التي فشلت فيها الحمية وحدها
because they are new,
they're what normally happens.
هم ما يحدث في العادة
99 percent that we ignore.
التي نتجاهلها
listen to the one percent,
السماع الى الـ1 بالمئة
of confirmation bias.
من الإنحياز التأكيدي
that we live in a post-truth world;
في عالم ما وراء الحقيقة
they're vivid, they bring it to life.
شديدة الوضوح، و تجلب الأشياء للحياة
every talk with a story.
حديث بقصة
is meaningless and misleading
with rival theories.
by psychologist Peter Wason
النفسي بيتر واسون
that generated them.
it's successive even numbers.
أنها أرقام متتاليه زوجية
of successive even numbers:
الأرقام المتتالية الزوجية
of successive even numbers also work,
من الاعداد المتتالية الزوجية صحيحة ايضاً
with rival theories.
is any three even numbers.
أرقام زوجية
of confirmation bias:
على الإنحياز التأكيدي:
with rival theories.
one theory and rules out others.
واحدة وتستبعد الآخرين
to play devil's advocate.
أن تكون محامي الشيطان
that would disprove your theory
أن يدحض نظريتك
"any three even numbers"
أن يستبعد "أي ثلاثة أرقام زوجية"
but not rule out yours.
ولن يستبعد نظريتك
of testing the 4, 12, 26,
4, 12, 26
and prove their pet theory to be wrong.
فيثبتون بذلك أن نظريتهم المفضلة خاطئة
about failing to search for new data,
الفشل في البحث عن بيانات جديدة
data once you receive it.
البيانات عند استلامها
to important, real-world problems.
مشاكل العالم الحقيقي المهمة أيضاً
admissions director
students with good grades
with the rival theory.
with good grades do well,
يبلون حسناً
because you never let in poor students
لأنك لم يسبق لك قبول طالب فقير
because it may not be true.
هناك احتمال أن تكون غير صحيحة
if it's only one data point.
كانت نقطة بيانات واحدة
if it's consistent with rival theories.
كانت متناسقة مع نظريات منافسة
the inflection points of life,
that you don't have a story
other viewpoints.
النظر الأخرى بفعالية
you flagrantly disagree with.
بشدّة معه
may be wrong, in your view.
يقولون هو خاطئ
who challenge you,
تحدياً لك
that actively encourages dissent.
(تفكير القطيع)
management's lending decisions,
الإقراض الخاصة بالإدارة
to be devil's advocate
is something to learn from
forgotten terms in Bayesian inference.
في "استدلال بايزي"
to a starting point.
that your pet theory must be true,
نظريتك التي تدعمها صحيحة
to the possibility of being wrong
كونك على خطأ
slow-witted man
any idea of them already.
to the most intelligent man
that he knows already."
unpopular advice that I could give you.
مستحبة قد أعطيك إياها
famously said that people in this country
شهيرة وهي أن الناس في هذا البلد
would trust their hairdresser --
يثقون في مصفف الشعر الخاص بهم
the health service and even charities.
الخدمات الصحية أو حتى الجمعيات الخيرية
discovered by a mom,
اكتشفتها أم،
on vaccination.
who go with their gut,
من يتبعون حدسهم،
water to a baby with diarrhea,
أبداً لطفل يعاني من الإسهال
flow out the other end.
to the man on the street.
who spent years doing surgery
في إجراء الجراحات
to every major decision.
على كل قرار مهم نتخذه
is they're seen as out of touch.
أنهم لا علاقة لهم بالواقع
speak for the man on the street.
يتكلم مع الرجل الذي في الشارع
for the man on the street
from imposing their own view
وجهة النظر الخاصة بها
why experts are not trusted
say different things.
أشياء مختلفة
the EU would be bad for Britain,
الإتحاد الأوروبي سيكون سيئاً لبريطانيا
will be wrong.
سيكونون على خطأ
written by experts are wrong.
التي كتبها الخبراء خاطئة
the evidence doesn't actually support.
an expert's word for it.
on executive pay hit national headlines.
الصحف الوطنية في نوفمبر 2016
who covered the study
التي نشرت عنها
just handpick any study
إنتقاء أي دراسة
that if seven studies show A
أشارت الى "أ"
the credentials of the authors.
المؤلف على نحو إنتقادي
the credentials of a potential surgeon.
جراح محتمل على نحو انتقادي
in the top academic journals.
نخبة الصحف الأكاديمية
of being detached from the real world.
بأنهم منفصلين عن العالم الحقيقي
years to spend on a study.
قضاء سنوات على دراسة ما
from causation.
والعلاقة السببية
the higher the standard.
كل ما كانت المعايير أعلى
reject 95 percent of papers.
أمر بالغ الأهمية أيضاً
mistakes are made.
لا تزال الأخطاء تُرتكب
with something checked
because we like the findings,
استحسنا إستنتاجاتها
or whether it's even been vetted,
أو حتى هل تم فحصها،
that that study is misleading.
of our analysis.
or predict something with certainty,
بشيء ما على وجه اليقين
a sweeping, unqualified statement.
مغرٍ جداً
or to be tweeted in 140 characters.
أو أن يُغرّد فيك من 140 حرف
it may not apply in every setting.
قد لا تنطبق على كل الأوضاع
causes longer life,"
حياة أطول،"
is correlated with longer life.
مرتبط مع الحياة الطويلة
who exercise as well.
الرياضة أيضاً.
is "pause before sharing anything."
مشاركة أي شيء"
"First, do no harm."
"أولاً، لا تضر أحداً"
to get likes or retweets.
على إعجابات أو إعادة تغريدات
we don't challenge anyone's thinking.
الناس, و لن نتحدى فكرة أي شخص
by large-scale evidence?
ببيانات واسعة النطاق؟
what are their credentials?
وما مقدار أهلية الكاتب؟
how rigorous is the journal?
the million-dollar question:
authors with the same credentials
الكتاب بنفس أهليّتهم،
to believe it and to share it?
تصدقها وتشاركها؟
or an individual's health problem,
أو مشكلة صحية لشخص ما
the very best evidence to guide us.
أفضل الأدلة لتقودنا
can it be data.
can it be evidence.
can we move from a post-truth world
من عالم ما وراء الحقيقة
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alex Edmans - Finance professor, editorAlex Edmans uses rigorous academic research to influence real-life business practices -- in particular, how companies can pursue purpose as well as profit.
Why you should listen
Alex Edmans is professor of finance at London Business School and managing editor of the Review of Finance, the leading academic finance journal in Europe. He is an expert in corporate governance, executive compensation, corporate social responsibility and behavioral economics.
Edmans has a unique combination of deep academic rigor and practical business experience. He's particularly passionate about translating complex academic research into practical ideas that can then be applied to real-life problems. He has spoken at the World Economic Forum in Davos, at the World Bank Distinguished Speaker Series and in the UK House of Commons. Edmans is heavily involved in the ongoing reform of corporate governance, in particular to ensure that both the diagnosis of problems and suggested solutions are based on rigorous evidence rather than anecdote. He was appointed by the UK government to study the effect of share buybacks on executive pay and investment. Edmans also serves on the Steering Group of The Purposeful Company, which aims to embed purpose into the heart of business, and on Royal London Asset Management's Responsible Investment Advisory Committee.
Edmans has been interviewed by Bloomberg, BBC, CNBC, CNN, ESPN, Fox, ITV, NPR, Reuters, Sky News and Sky Sports, and has written for the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and Harvard Business Review. He runs a blog, Access to Finance, that makes academic research accessible to a general audience, and was appointed Mercers' School Memorial Professor of Business by Gresham College, to give free lectures to the public. Edmans was previously a tenured professor at Wharton, where he won 14 teaching awards in six years. At LBS, he won the Excellence in Teaching award, LBS's highest teaching accolade.
Alex Edmans | Speaker | TED.com