TEDxBeaconStreet
Alex Wissner-Gross: A new equation for intelligence
En ny ligning for intelligens.
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Er der en ligning for intelligens? Ja. Den er F = T ∇ Sτ. I et fascinerende og informativ foredrag, forklarer fysiker- og computerforsker Alex Wissner-Gross, hvad i alverden det betyder. (Filmet ved TEDxBeaconStreet)
Alex Wissner-Gross - Scientist, entrepreneur, inventor
Alex Wissner-Gross applies science and engineering principles to big (and diverse) questions, like: "What is the equation for intelligence?" and "What's the best way to raise awareness about climate change?" Full bio
Alex Wissner-Gross applies science and engineering principles to big (and diverse) questions, like: "What is the equation for intelligence?" and "What's the best way to raise awareness about climate change?" Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Intelligence -- what is it?
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Intelligens -- hvad er det?
00:16
If we take a look back at the history
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Hvis vi tager et kig tilbage i historien
00:18
of how intelligence has been viewed,
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over hvordan intelligens er blevet opfattet,
00:21
one seminal example has been
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har et skelsættende eksempel været
00:25
Edsger Dijkstra's famous quote that
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Edsger Dijkstras kendte citat at
00:28
"the question of whether a machine can think
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"Spørgsmålet om hvorvidt en maskine kan tænke
00:31
is about as interesting
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er omtrent så interessant,
00:32
as the question of whether a submarine
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som spørgsmålet om hvorvidt en ubåd
00:35
can swim."
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kan svømme."
00:37
Now, Edsger Dijkstra, when he wrote this,
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Da Edsger Dijkstra skrev dette,
00:41
intended it as a criticism
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mente han det som en kritik
00:43
of the early pioneers of computer science,
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af de tidlige pionerer i computervidenskab,
00:46
like Alan Turing.
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som Alan Turing.
00:48
However, if you take a look back
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Men hvis du tager et kig tilbage,
00:50
and think about what have been
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og tænker over hvad der har været
00:52
the most empowering innovations
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de mest kraftfulde opfindelser
00:54
that enabled us to build
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som har sat os i stand til at bygge
00:56
artificial machines that swim
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kunstige maskiner der kan svømme
00:58
and artificial machines that [fly],
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og kunstige maskiner som flyver,
01:01
you find that it was only through understanding
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så vil du se, at det kun var gennem en forståelse
01:05
the underlying physical mechanisms
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af de underliggende fysiske mekanismer
01:07
of swimming and flight
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af svømning og flyvning
01:10
that we were able to build these machines.
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at vi var i stand til at bygge disse maskiner.
01:13
And so, several years ago,
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Og så for flere år siden,,
01:15
I undertook a program to try to understand
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satte jeg et forskningsprogram i værks for at forstå
01:19
the fundamental physical mechanisms
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de fundamentale fysiske mekanismer
01:21
underlying intelligence.
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der lå bag intelligens.
01:24
Let's take a step back.
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Lad os tage et skridt tilbage.
01:26
Let's first begin with a thought experiment.
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Lad os først begynde med et tankeeksperiment.
01:29
Pretend that you're an alien race
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Forestil dig at du er en fremmed race,
01:32
that doesn't know anything about Earth biology
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som ikke kender noget til jordens biologi
01:35
or Earth neuroscience or Earth intelligence,
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eller jordens neurovidenskab eller jordens intelligens,
01:38
but you have amazing telescopes
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men du har fantastiske teleskoper,
01:40
and you're able to watch the Earth,
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og du er i stand til at overvåge jorden,
01:43
and you have amazingly long lives,
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og du har fantastisk lange liv,
01:45
so you're able to watch the Earth
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så du er i stand til at overvåge jorden
01:46
over millions, even billions of years.
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over millioner eller endda milliarder af år.
01:50
And you observe a really strange effect.
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Og du observerer en meget underlig effekt.
01:53
You observe that, over the course of the millennia,
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Du observerer at over tusindvis af år,
01:57
Earth is continually bombarded with asteroids
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er jorden konstant under bombardement af asteroider
02:02
up until a point,
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indtil et tidspunkt,
02:04
and that at some point,
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og ved det tidspunkt,
02:05
corresponding roughly to our year, 2000 AD,
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omtrent svarende til vores år 2000,
02:09
asteroids that are on
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asteroider som er på
02:11
a collision course with the Earth
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en kollisions kurs med jorden.
02:13
that otherwise would have collided
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som ellers ville have kollideret
02:15
mysteriously get deflected
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på mystisk vis bliver afbøjet,
02:17
or they detonate before they can hit the Earth.
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eller de detonerer før de kan ramme jorden.
02:20
Now of course, as earthlings,
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Selvfølgelig som jordboere
02:23
we know the reason would be
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ved vi, at grunden er
02:24
that we're trying to save ourselves.
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at vi prøver at redde os selv.
02:26
We're trying to prevent an impact.
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Vi prøver at forhindre et sammenstød.
02:29
But if you're an alien race
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Men hvis du er en fremmed race,
02:31
who doesn't know any of this,
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som ikke ved dette,
02:32
doesn't have any concept of Earth intelligence,
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som ikke har noget koncept af jordintelligens,
02:34
you'd be forced to put together
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ville du være nødsaget til at sammenstrikke
02:36
a physical theory that explains how,
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en fysisk teori som forklarer hvorledes
02:39
up until a certain point in time,
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op til et vist tidspunkt,
02:41
asteroids that would demolish the surface of a planet
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asteroider som ville ødelægge overfladen af en planet
02:46
mysteriously stop doing that.
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på mystisk vis stopper med at gøre det.
02:49
And so I claim that this is the same question
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Og så forelægger jeg, at dette er det samme spørgsmål
02:53
as understanding the physical nature of intelligence.
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som at forstå den fysiske natur af intelligens.
02:57
So in this program that I
undertook several years ago,
undertook several years ago,
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Så i det forskningsprogram jeg startede for mange år tilbage,
03:01
I looked at a variety of different threads
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kiggede jeg på en række af forskellige tråde
03:04
across science, across a variety of disciplines,
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over videnskab, over en række forskellige discipliner,
03:07
that were pointing, I think,
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som pegede på, tror jeg,
03:09
towards a single, underlying mechanism
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en underliggende mekaniske
03:12
for intelligence.
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for intelligens.
03:13
In cosmology, for example,
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I kosmologi for eksempel
03:16
there have been a variety of
different threads of evidence
different threads of evidence
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har der været en række af forskellige tråde af beviser
03:18
that our universe appears to be finely tuned
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at vores univers synes at være fin tunet
03:22
for the development of intelligence,
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til udviklingen af intelligens,
03:24
and, in particular, for the development
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og i særdeleshed for udviklingen
03:26
of universal states
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af universelle stadier
03:28
that maximize the diversity of possible futures.
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som maksimere udvalget af mulige fremtider.
03:32
In game play, for example, in Go --
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I spil, foreksempel i 'Go' ..
03:35
everyone remembers in 1997
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alle kan huske i 1997,
03:38
when IBM's Deep Blue beat
Garry Kasparov at chess --
Garry Kasparov at chess --
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hvor IBM's 'Deep Blue' slog Garry Kasparov i skak --
03:42
fewer people are aware
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færre folk er opmærksomme på
03:43
that in the past 10 years or so,
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at i de sidste 10 år eller der omkring,
03:45
the game of Go,
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er spillet Go
03:46
arguably a much more challenging game
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velsagtens et langt mere udfordrende spil,
03:48
because it has a much higher branching factor,
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fordi det har et meget højere forgrenings faktor,
03:51
has also started to succumb
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også begyndt at bukke under
03:53
to computer game players
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for computerspillere
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for the same reason:
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af den samme grund:
03:56
the best techniques right now
for computers playing Go
for computers playing Go
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de bedste teknikker lige nu for computere, som spiller Go
03:59
are techniques that try to maximize future options
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er teknikker som prøver på at maksimere fremtidige muligheder
04:02
during game play.
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under spillet.
04:04
Finally, in robotic motion planning,
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Til slut, i robotbevægelses planlægning
04:08
there have been a variety of recent techniques
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har der været en række af nye teknikker
04:10
that have tried to take advantage
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som har prøvet på at drage fordel
04:12
of abilities of robots to maximize
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af robotters evner til at maksimere
04:15
future freedom of action
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fremtidig handlerum
04:17
in order to accomplish complex tasks.
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med henblik på at gennemføre komplekse opgaver.
04:20
And so, taking all of these different threads
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Og så tog jeg alle disse forskellige tråde
04:22
and putting them together,
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og satte dem sammen,
04:24
I asked, starting several years ago,
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og spurgte, startende for flere år siden,
04:27
is there an underlying mechanism for intelligence
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er der en underliggende mekanisme for intelligens
04:29
that we can factor out
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som vi kan ekstrapolere
04:31
of all of these different threads?
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ud af alle disse forskellige tråde?
04:33
Is there a single equation for intelligence?
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Er der en enlig ligning for intelligens?
04:37
And the answer, I believe, is yes.
["F = T ∇ Sτ"]
["F = T ∇ Sτ"]
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Og svaret, tror jeg, er ja.
["F = T ∇ Sτ"]
["F = T ∇ Sτ"]
04:41
What you're seeing is probably
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Hvad du ser er formentlig
04:43
the closest equivalent to an E = mc²
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den tætteste ligning på en E = mc²
04:46
for intelligence that I've seen.
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for intelligens, som jeg har set.
04:49
So what you're seeing here
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Så hvad du ser her
04:51
is a statement of correspondence
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er en erklæring om korrespondance
04:53
that intelligence is a force, F,
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at intelligens er en kraft, F,
04:58
that acts so as to maximize future freedom of action.
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som handler for at maksimere fremtidig handlefrihed.
05:02
It acts to maximize future freedom of action,
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Den handler for at maksimere handlefrihed,
05:05
or keep options open,
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eller holde muligheder åbne,
05:06
with some strength T,
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med en styrke T,
05:08
with the diversity of possible accessible futures, S,
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med mangfoldigheden af mulige tilgængelige fremtider, S,
05:13
up to some future time horizon, tau.
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op til en vis fremtidig tidshorisont, tau.
05:16
In short, intelligence doesn't like to get trapped.
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Kort sagt, intelligens kan ikke lide at blive fanget.
05:19
Intelligence tries to maximize
future freedom of action
future freedom of action
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Intelligens prøver på at maksimere fremtidig handlefrihed
05:22
and keep options open.
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og holde muligheder åbne.
05:25
And so, given this one equation,
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Og så givet denne ligning,
05:27
it's natural to ask, so what can you do with this?
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er det naturligt at spørge, hvad kan du gøre med den?
05:30
How predictive is it?
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Hvor forudsigelig er den?
05:31
Does it predict human-level intelligence?
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Forudser den intelligens på menneske niveau?
05:33
Does it predict artificial intelligence?
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Forudser den kunstig intelligens?
05:36
So I'm going to show you now a video
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Nu vil jeg vise jer en video
05:38
that will, I think, demonstrate
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som vil, tror jeg, demonstrere
05:41
some of the amazing applications
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noget af det fantastiske potentiale
05:44
of just this single equation.
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af denne ene ligning.
05:46
(Video) Narrator: Recent research in cosmology
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(Video) Fortæller: Nylig forskning i kosmologi
05:48
has suggested that universes that produce
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har antydet at universer, som producerer
05:50
more disorder, or "entropy," over their lifetimes
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mere uorden eller "entropi", over deres livstid
05:54
should tend to have more favorable conditions
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burde være tilbøjelige til at have mere favorable vilkår
05:56
for the existence of intelligent
beings such as ourselves.
beings such as ourselves.
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for eksistens af intelligente væsner som os selv.
05:59
But what if that tentative cosmological connection
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Men hvad hvis det tentative kosmologiske forbindelse
06:02
between entropy and intelligence
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mellem entropi og intelligens
06:04
hints at a deeper relationship?
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antyder et dybere forhold?
06:05
What if intelligent behavior doesn't just correlate
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Men hvad hvis intelligent opførsel ikke bare korrelerer
06:08
with the production of long-term entropy,
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med produktionen af langvarig entropi,
06:10
but actually emerges directly from it?
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men faktisk stammer direkte fra det?
06:12
To find out, we developed a software engine
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For at finde ud af det, udviklede vi en software engine
06:14
called Entropica, designed to maximize
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kaldet Entropica, designet til at maksimere
06:17
the production of long-term entropy
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produktionen af langvarig entropi
06:19
of any system that it finds itself in.
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i hvilket som helst system det befinder sig i.
06:21
Amazingly, Entropica was able to pass
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Utroligt nok, var Entropica i stand til at bestå
06:23
multiple animal intelligence
tests, play human games,
tests, play human games,
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adskillige intelligenstest for dyr, spille menneske spil
06:27
and even earn money trading stocks,
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og endda tjene penge ved at handle aktier,
06:29
all without being instructed to do so.
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alt sammen uden at blive instrueret til det.
06:31
Here are some examples of Entropica in action.
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Her er nogle eksempler på Entropica i aktion.
06:34
Just like a human standing
upright without falling over,
upright without falling over,
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Ligesom et menneske står oprejst uden at vælte
06:37
here we see Entropica
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ser vi her Entropica.
06:38
automatically balancing a pole using a cart.
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automatisk balancere en pæl ved hjælp af en vogn.
06:41
This behavior is remarkable in part
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Denne opførsel er bemærkelsesværdig til dels
06:43
because we never gave Entropica a goal.
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fordi vi aldrig gav Entropica et mål.
06:45
It simply decided on its own to balance the pole.
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Det besluttede simpelthen på egen vis at balancere pælen.
06:48
This balancing ability will have appliactions
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Denne balanceringsevne vil have applikationer
06:51
for humanoid robotics
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for humanoid robotteknologi
06:52
and human assistive technologies.
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og teknologiske hjælpemidler til mennesker.
06:55
Just as some animals can use objects
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Lige som nogle dyr kan benytte objekter
06:57
in their environments as tools
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i deres miljø som værktøjer
06:58
to reach into narrow spaces,
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for at nå ind i snævre rum,
07:00
here we see that Entropica,
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ser vi her Entropica
07:02
again on its own initiative,
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igen på eget initiativ,
07:04
was able to move a large
disk representing an animal
disk representing an animal
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være i stand til at bevæge en stor disk repræsenterende et dyr
07:07
around so as to cause a small disk,
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omkring med det formål at en smal disk,
07:09
representing a tool, to reach into a confined space
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repræsenterende et værktøj, at nå ind i et afgrænset rum
07:12
holding a third disk
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holdende en tredje disk
07:13
and release the third disk
from its initially fixed position.
from its initially fixed position.
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og frigive den tredje disk fra dens oprindelige fastlåste position.
07:16
This tool use ability will have applications
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Denne evne til at benytte værktøjer vil have applikationer
07:18
for smart manufacturing and agriculture.
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for smart produktion og landbrug.
07:21
In addition, just as some other animals
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Ydermere, ligesom nogle andre dyr
07:23
are able to cooperate by pulling
opposite ends of a rope
opposite ends of a rope
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er i stand til at samarbejde ved at hive i modsat ende af et reb
07:25
at the same time to release food,
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på samme tid for at frigive mad,
07:27
here we see that Entropica is able to accomplish
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ser vi her at Entropica er i stand til at opnå
07:30
a model version of that task.
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en model version af den opgave.
07:32
This cooperative ability has interesting implications
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Denne koorporationsevne har interessante implikationer
07:34
for economic planning and a variety of other fields.
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for økonomiskplanlægning og en række af andre områder.
07:38
Entropica is broadly applicable
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Entropica er bredt anvendelig
07:40
to a variety of domains.
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for en række af områder.
07:42
For example, here we see it successfully
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For eksempel, ser vi det her succesfuldt
07:44
playing a game of pong against itself,
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spille et spil 'Pong' mod sig selv,
07:47
illustrating its potential for gaming.
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illustrerende dets potentiale for spil.
07:49
Here we see Entropica orchestrating
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Her ser vi Entropica orkestrere
07:51
new connections on a social network
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nye forbindelser på et socialt netværk,
07:53
where friends are constantly falling out of touch
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hvor venner konstant falder ud af kontakt,
07:56
and successfully keeping
the network well connected.
the network well connected.
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og succesfyldt holde netværket forbundet.
07:58
This same network orchestration ability
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Denne samme netværks orkestreringsevne
08:01
also has applications in health care,
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har også applikationer i sundhedssektoren,
08:03
energy, and intelligence.
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energi og efterretning.
08:06
Here we see Entropica directing the paths
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Her ser vi Entropica dirigere vejene
08:08
of a fleet of ships,
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for en flåde af skibe,
08:10
successfully discovering and
utilizing the Panama Canal
utilizing the Panama Canal
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succesfuldt opdage og benytte Panama kanalen
08:13
to globally extend its reach from the Atlantic
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til globalt at udvide dets rækkevidde fra Atlanten
08:15
to the Pacific.
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til Stillehavet.
08:17
By the same token, Entropica
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Af samme grund, er Entropica
08:19
is broadly applicable to problems
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bredt anvendelig til problemer
08:20
in autonomous defense, logistics and transportation.
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i autonomt forsvar, logistik og transport.
08:26
Finally, here we see Entropica
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Til slut ser vi her Entropica
08:28
spontaneously discovering and executing
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spontant opdage og eksekvere
08:30
a buy-low, sell-high strategy
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en køb-lavt, sælg-højt strategi
08:32
on a simulated range traded stock,
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på en simuleret række af handlede aktier
08:35
successfully growing assets under management
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succesfyldt udvide antallet af aktiver under forvaltning
08:37
exponentially.
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eksponentiel.
08:38
This risk management ability
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Denne risikostyringsevne
08:40
will have broad applications in finance
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vil have brede anvendelsesområder inden for finans
08:42
and insurance.
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og forsikring.
08:46
Alex Wissner-Gross: So what you've just seen
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Alex Wissner-Gross: Så hvad I lige har set
08:48
is that a variety of signature human intelligent
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er at et udpluk af menneskelig intelligent
08:52
cognitive behaviors
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kognitivt opførsel
08:54
such as tool use and walking upright
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som at benytte værktøjer gå oprejst
08:57
and social cooperation
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og social koorporation
08:59
all follow from a single equation,
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alle stammer fra en enkelt ligning,
09:02
which drives a system
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som driver et system
09:04
to maximize its future freedom of action.
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til at maksimere sin fremtidige handlefrihed.
09:07
Now, there's a profound irony here.
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Der er en dybtgående ironi her.
09:10
Going back to the beginning
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Gående tilbage til begyndelsen
09:12
of the usage of the term robot,
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af benyttelsen af begrebet robot,
09:16
the play "RUR,"
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spillet "RUR"
09:19
there was always a concept
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var der altid et koncept,
09:21
that if we developed machine intelligence,
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at hvis vi udviklede kunstig intelligens
09:24
there would be a cybernetic revolt.
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ville der opstå en kybernetisk oprør.
09:27
The machines would rise up against us.
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Maskinerne ville rejse se op imod os.
09:31
One major consequence of this work
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En væsentlig konsekvens af dette arbejde
09:33
is that maybe all of these decades,
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er at vi måske alle disse årtider
09:36
we've had the whole concept of cybernetic revolt
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har haft konceptet af kybernetisk oprør
09:39
in reverse.
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omvendt.
09:41
It's not that machines first become intelligent
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Det er ikke at maskiner først bliver intelligente
09:44
and then megalomaniacal
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og derefter får storhedsvanvid
09:46
and try to take over the world.
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og forsøger at overtage verden.
09:48
It's quite the opposite,
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Det er præcist det modsatte,
09:50
that the urge to take control
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at trangen til at tage kontrol
09:53
of all possible futures
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af alle mulige fremtider
09:55
is a more fundamental principle
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er et mere fundamentalt princip
09:57
than that of intelligence,
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end det af vores intelligens,
09:58
that general intelligence may in fact emerge
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at general intelligens muligvis kan opstå
10:02
directly from this sort of control-grabbing,
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direkte fra denne form af forsøg på at opnå kontrol
10:06
rather than vice versa.
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snarere end omvendt.
10:10
Another important consequence is goal seeking.
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En anden vigtig konsekvens er målsøgning.
10:14
I'm often asked, how does the ability to seek goals
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Jeg bliver ofte spurgt, hvordan evnen til at søge mål
10:18
follow from this sort of framework?
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følger denne form for ramme?
10:20
And the answer is, the ability to seek goals
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Og svaret er, evnen til at søge mål
10:23
will follow directly from this
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vil følge direkte fra dette
10:24
in the following sense:
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i den følgende mening:
10:26
just like you would travel through a tunnel,
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præcist ligesom du ville rejse gennem en tunnel,
10:29
a bottleneck in your future path space,
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en flaskehals i dit fremtidige vej rum
10:32
in order to achieve many other
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for at opnå mange andre
10:34
diverse objectives later on,
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forskelligartede objektiver senere,
10:36
or just like you would invest
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eller præcist som du ville investere
10:38
in a financial security,
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i en finansiel sikkerhed
10:40
reducing your short-term liquidity
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for at reducere din kortsigtede likviditet
10:42
in order to increase your wealth over the long term,
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for at øge din velstand på lang sigt,
10:44
goal seeking emerges directly
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målsøgning opstår direkte
10:47
from a long-term drive
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fra en langsigtet lyst
10:48
to increase future freedom of action.
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til at øge fremtidig handlefrihed.
10:52
Finally, Richard Feynman, famous physicist,
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Til slut, Richard Feynman, kendt fysiker,
10:56
once wrote that if human civilization were destroyed
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skrev engang at hvis den menneskelige
civilisation blev tilintetgjort
civilisation blev tilintetgjort
11:00
and you could pass only a single concept
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og du kun kunne videregive et enkelt koncept
11:02
on to our descendants
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til vores efterkommere
11:03
to help them rebuild civilization,
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for at hjælpe dem med at opbygge civilisationen,
11:05
that concept should be
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burde det koncept være,
11:07
that all matter around us
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at all materiale omkring os
11:09
is made out of tiny elements
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er laver ud af små elementer,
11:11
that attract each other when they're far apart
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som tiltrækker hinanden, når de er langt fra hinanden,
11:14
but repel each other when they're close together.
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men frastøder hinanden når de er tæt.
11:17
My equivalent of that statement
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Min ækvivalent af denne erklæring,
11:19
to pass on to descendants
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at videregive til efterkommere,
11:20
to help them build artificial intelligences
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for at hjælpe dem med at bygge kunstig intelligens,
11:23
or to help them understand human intelligence,
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eller hjælpe dem med at forstå menneskelig intelligens,
11:26
is the following:
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er det følgende:
11:27
Intelligence should be viewed
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Intelligens burde blive opfattet
11:29
as a physical process
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som en fysisk proces
11:30
that tries to maximize future freedom of action
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som prøver at maksimere fremtidig handlefrihed
11:33
and avoid constraints in its own future.
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og undgå hindringer i sin egen fremtid.
11:37
Thank you very much.
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Mange tak.
11:38
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alex Wissner-Gross - Scientist, entrepreneur, inventorAlex Wissner-Gross applies science and engineering principles to big (and diverse) questions, like: "What is the equation for intelligence?" and "What's the best way to raise awareness about climate change?"
Why you should listen
Alex Wissner-Gross is a serial big-picture thinker. He applies physics and computer science principles to a wide variety of topics, like human intelligence, climate change and financial trading.
Lately Wissner-Gross started wondering: Why have we searched for so long to understand intelligence? Can it really be this elusive? His latest work posits that intelligence can indeed be defined physically, as a dynamic force, rather than a static property. He explains intelligence in terms of causal entropic forces, ultimately defining it as "a force to maximize future freedom of action."
Wissner-Gross is a fellow at the Harvard Institute for Applied Computational Science and a research affiliate at the MIT Media Lab. He has a Ph.D. in physics from Harvard and bachelor's degrees in physics, electrical science and engineering, and mathematics from MIT.
Alex Wissner-Gross | Speaker | TED.com