TEDGlobal 2010
Steven Johnson: Where good ideas come from
Steven Johnson: kuidas tekivad head ideed
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Tihti omistavad inimesed oma ideed eraldiseisvatele "Heureka!"-hetkedele. Steven Johnson aga näitab, kuidas ajalugu tõestab vastupidist. Tema põnev ringkäik viib meid Londoni kohvikute "vedelikvõrgustikest" Charles Darwini pika, aeglase aimuseni ja sealt edasi tänapäeva kiire veebini.
Steven Johnson - Writer
Steven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience. Full bio
Steven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Just a few minutes ago, I took this picture
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Vaid mõned minutid tagasi tegin ma selle pildi
00:18
about 10 blocks from here.
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siit umbes 10 kvartali kaugusel.
00:20
This is the Grand Cafe here in Oxford.
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See on Grand Cafe siin Oxfordis.
00:23
I took this picture because this turns out to be
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Ma tegin selle pildi, sest tuleb välja, et see on
00:26
the first coffeehouse to open
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esimene kohvik, mis Inglismaal
00:28
in England in 1650.
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avati, aastal 1650.
00:30
That's its great claim to fame,
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Kuulsusrikas kohvik!
00:32
and I wanted to show it to you,
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Ma tahtsin teile seda näidata
00:34
not because I want to give you the kind of Starbucks tour
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mitte selleks, et teha teile mingi Starbucks-ringkäik
00:36
of historic England,
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ajaloolisest Inglismaast,
00:38
but rather because
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vaid sellepärast,
00:40
the English coffeehouse was crucial
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et kohvik oli Inglismaal ülioluline
00:42
to the development and spread
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selleks, et areneks ja leviks
00:45
of one of the great intellectual flowerings of the last 500 years,
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üks viimase 500 aasta suurimaid intellektuaalseid õitsenguid -
00:48
what we now call the Enlightenment.
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valgustusajastu.
00:51
And the coffeehouse played such a big role
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Kohvik mängis nii suurt rolli
00:53
in the birth of the Enlightenment,
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valgustuse tekkimises
00:55
in part, because of what people were drinking there.
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osaliselt selle pärast, mida inimesed seal jõid.
00:57
Because, before the spread
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Enne seda, kui kohvi ja tee
01:00
of coffee and tea through British culture,
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Briti kultuuris kodunesid,
01:03
what people drank -- both elite and mass folks drank --
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oli põhiliseks joogiks - nii eliidil kui ka tavainimestel -
01:06
day-in and day-out, from dawn until dusk
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päevast päeva, koidust ehani -
01:08
was alcohol.
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alkohol.
01:10
Alcohol was the daytime beverage of choice.
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Terve päev otsa oli joogiks alkohol.
01:12
You would drink a little beer with breakfast and have a little wine at lunch,
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Hommikusöögi juurde väike õlu ja lõunasöögiks vein,
01:15
a little gin -- particularly around 1650 --
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natuke džinni - eriti 1650. aasta paiku -
01:18
and top it off with a little beer and wine at the end of the day.
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ja päeva lõpetuseks jälle natuke õlut ja veini.
01:20
That was the healthy choice -- right --
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See oli tervislik valik,
01:22
because the water wasn't safe to drink.
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sest vesi ei kõlvanud juua.
01:24
And so, effectively until the rise of the coffeehouse,
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Seega, kuni kohvikute populaarsuse tõusuni
01:27
you had an entire population
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oli kogu rahvas praktiliselt
01:29
that was effectively drunk all day.
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terve päev purjus.
01:32
And you can imagine what that would be like, right, in your own life --
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Te ju kujutate oma elu ette, mismoodi see oleks -
01:34
and I know this is true of some of you --
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ma tean, mõnede puhul teist on see tõsi ka -
01:36
if you were drinking all day,
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kui te jooksite päev läbi
01:39
and then you switched from a depressant to a stimulant in your life,
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ja siis vahetaksite rahusti oma elus erguti vastu,
01:42
you would have better ideas.
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teil tekiksid küll paremad ideed.
01:44
You would be sharper and more alert.
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Oleksite teravama taibuga ja erksamad.
01:46
And so it's not an accident that a great flowering of innovation happened
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Niisiis pole see juhus, et suur innovatsiooni õitseng juhtus just siis,
01:49
as England switched to tea and coffee.
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kui Inglismaa tee ja kohvi poole pöördus.
01:52
But the other thing that makes the coffeehouse important
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Teine põhjus, miks kohvik osutus nii tähtsaks,
01:55
is the architecture of the space.
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oli selle ruumiline ülesehitus.
01:57
It was a space where people would get together
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See oli koht, kus võisid kokku saada erineva
01:59
from different backgrounds,
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taustaga inimesed erinevatelt
02:01
different fields of expertise, and share.
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tegevusaladelt ja omi mõtteid jagada.
02:03
It was a space, as Matt Ridley talked about, where ideas could have sex.
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See oli koht, kus - nagu Matt Ridley rääkis - ideed võisid seksida.
02:06
This was their conjugal bed, in a sense --
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See oli teatud mõttes nende abieluvoodi.
02:08
ideas would get together there.
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Ideed said seal kokku.
02:10
And an astonishing number of innovations from this period
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Hämmastavalt suur arv innovatsioone sellest ajajärgust
02:13
have a coffeehouse somewhere in their story.
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ongi miskitpidi mõne kohvikuga seotud.
02:16
I've been spending a lot of time thinking about coffeehouses
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Ma olen viimase viie aasta jooksul veetnud palju aega
02:19
for the last five years,
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kohvikute üle mõteldes,
02:21
because I've been kind of on this quest
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sest ma olen olnud otsingul,
02:23
to investigate this question
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leidmas vastust küsimusele,
02:25
of where good ideas come from.
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kust tulevad head ideed.
02:27
What are the environments
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Mis on need keskkonnad,
02:29
that lead to unusual levels of innovation,
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mis viivad erakordse innovatsioonitasemeni,
02:32
unusual levels of creativity?
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erakordse loovuseni?
02:35
What's the kind of environmental --
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Milline on see keskkonna...
02:37
what is the space of creativity?
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milline on see loovuse ruum?
02:39
And what I've done is
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Selle käigus olen ma
02:41
I've looked at both environments like the coffeehouse;
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uurinud selliseid keskkondi nagu kohvikud,
02:43
I've looked at media environments, like the world wide web,
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olen vaadanud meediakeskkondi nagu seda on Internet,
02:45
that have been extraordinarily innovative;
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mis on olnud erakordselt innovaatilised.
02:47
I've gone back to the history of the first cities;
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Olen vaadanud esimeste linnade ajalugu ning
02:50
I've even gone to biological environments,
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läinud isegi bioloogilistesse keskkondadesse
02:52
like coral reefs and rainforests,
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nagu korallrahud ja vihmametsad,
02:54
that involve unusual levels of biological innovation;
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milles on tavatult kõrge bioloogilise innovatsiooni tase,
02:57
and what I've been looking for is shared patterns,
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otsides ühiseid mustreid,
03:00
kind of signature behavior that shows up
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iseloomulikke käitumismalle, mida võib
03:02
again and again in all of these environments.
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ikka ja jälle kõigis neis keskkondades näha.
03:05
Are there recurring patterns that we can learn from,
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Kas on korduvaid mustreid, millest võime õppida,
03:08
that we can take and kind of apply to our own lives,
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mida saame kuidagi rakendada omaenda eludes,
03:10
or our own organizations,
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oma organisatsioonides
03:12
or our own environments to make them more creative and innovative?
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või keskkonnas, et muuta neid loomingulisemaks ja uuenduslikemaks?
03:14
And I think I've found a few.
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Ma arvan, et olen mõned leidnud.
03:16
But what you have to do to make sense of this
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Kuid sellest aru saamiseks ja tõepoolest
03:19
and to really understand these principles
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nende põhimõtete mõistmiseks
03:21
is you have to do away
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tuleb unustada
03:23
with a lot of the way in which our conventional metaphors and language
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suur osa sellest, mil viisil meie harjumuspärased metafoorid ja keel
03:26
steers us towards
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juhivad meid teatud
03:28
certain concepts of idea-creation.
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arusaamadeni ideede loomisest.
03:30
We have this very rich vocabulary
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Meil on väga rikkalik sõnavara
03:32
to describe moments of inspiration.
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inspiratsioonihetkede kirjeldamiseks.
03:34
We have the kind of the flash of insight,
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Meil on sisekaemuse välgatused,
03:37
the stroke of insight,
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äkiline äratundmine,
03:39
we have epiphanies, we have "eureka!" moments,
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ilmutused ja "heureka!"-hetked
03:42
we have the lightbulb moments, right?
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ning ideesähvatused, eks ole?
03:44
All of these concepts,
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Kõik need arusaamad,
03:46
as kind of rhetorically florid as they are,
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retooriliselt ilustatud nagu nad on,
03:49
share this basic assumption,
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põhinevad lihtsal oletusel,
03:51
which is that an idea is a single thing,
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et idee on selline eraldiseisev asi,
03:54
it's something that happens often
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miski, mis tihti juhtub ühel
03:56
in a wonderful illuminating moment.
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imelisel valgustaval hetkel.
03:59
But in fact, what I would argue and what you really need to kind of begin with
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Kuid ma väidaksin hoopis - sellest peaks tegelikult alustama -
04:02
is this idea that an idea is a network
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et idee kui selline
04:05
on the most elemental level.
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on lihtne võrgustik.
04:07
I mean, this is what is happening inside your brain.
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Tähendab, see on see, mis juhtub teie ajus.
04:09
An idea -- a new idea -- is a new network of neurons
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Idee - uus idee - on uus võrgustik närvirakkudest,
04:12
firing in sync with each other inside your brain.
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mis saadavad ajus välja impulsse üksteisega sünkroonis.
04:15
It's a new configuration that has never formed before.
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See on uus konfiguratsioon, mida enne pole tekkinud.
04:18
And the question is: how do you get your brain into environments
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Küsimus: kuidas saada oma aju sellisesse keskkonda,
04:21
where these new networks are going to be more likely to form?
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kus need uued võrgustikud on tõenäolisemad tekkima?
04:24
And it turns out that, in fact, the kind of network patterns of the outside world
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Tuleb välja, et tegelikult on välise maailma võrgustike mustrid
04:27
mimic a lot of the network patterns
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sarnased paljudele inimese aju
04:29
of the internal world of the human brain.
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sisemaailma võrgustike mustritele.
04:32
So the metaphor I'd like the use
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Nii võin ma hea metafoori
04:34
I can take
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võtta
04:36
from a story of a great idea that's quite recent --
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ühe suure idee loost, mis on päris värske -
04:39
a lot more recent than the 1650s.
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palju hilisem kui 1650-ndad.
04:43
A wonderful guy named Timothy Prestero,
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Üks vaimustav mees, Timothy Prestero,
04:45
who has a company called ... an organization called Design That Matters.
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kellel on organisatsioon nimega Design that Matters.
04:48
They decided to tackle this really pressing problem
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Nad otsustasid käsile võtta pakilise ülesande,
04:53
of, you know, the terrible problems we have with infant mortality rates
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rasked probleemid seoses imikusuremuskordajaga
04:55
in the developing world.
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arengumaades.
04:57
One of the things that's very frustrating about this is that we know,
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Üks väga masendav tõsiasi selle juures on teadmine,
05:00
by getting modern neonatal incubators
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et vastsündinute inkubaatorite olemasolu
05:03
into any context,
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ükskõik kus,
05:05
if we can keep premature babies warm, basically -- it's very simple --
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enneaegsete imikute soojas hoidmiseks - see on ju väga lihtne -
05:08
we can halve infant mortality rates in those environments.
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vähendab imikute suremust poole võrra.
05:11
So, the technology is there.
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See tehnoloogia on olemas.
05:13
These are standard in all the industrialized worlds.
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Need on tavavarustus kõigis arenenud tööstusriikides.
05:16
The problem is, if you buy a $40,000 incubator,
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Probleem tekib siis, kui osta 40 000-dollariline aparaat
05:19
and you send it off
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ja saata see teele
05:21
to a mid-sized village in Africa,
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keskmise suurusega Aafrika külla,
05:23
it will work great for a year or two years,
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töötab see seal hästi aasta või paar,
05:25
and then something will go wrong and it will break,
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kuid siis läheb see läheb rikki,
05:28
and it will remain broken forever,
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ja jääbki igaveseks katkiseks,
05:30
because you don't have a whole system of spare parts,
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sest puudub varuosade süsteem
05:33
and you don't have the on-the-ground expertise
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ja koha peal pole ühtki kompetentset inimest
05:35
to fix this $40,000 piece of equipment.
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selle kalli seadme parandamiseks.
05:37
And so you end up having this problem where you spend all this money
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Nii meil ongi lõpuks probleem, et kulutame küll palju raha
05:39
getting aid and all these advanced electronics to these countries,
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nende riikide nüüdisaegse tehnikaga varustamiseks,
05:42
and then it ends up being useless.
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kuid lõpuks muutub see kasutuks.
05:44
So what Prestero and his team decided to do
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Niisiis otsustasid Prestero ja tema meeskond
05:46
is to look around and see: what are the abundant resources
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ringi vaadata ja uurida: milliseid ressursse leidub külluses
05:49
in these developing world contexts?
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nendes arengumaades?
05:51
And what they noticed was they don't have a lot of DVRs,
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Nad märkasid, et neil pole just palju videosalvesteid
05:54
they don't have a lot of microwaves,
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ega kuigi palju mikrolaineahjusid,
05:56
but they seem to do a pretty good job of keeping their cars on the road.
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aga autode töökorras hoidmisega saavad nad hästi hakkama.
05:59
There's a Toyota Forerunner
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Toyota 4Runner on
06:01
on the street in all these places.
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kõigis neis paigus tänavatel.
06:03
They seem to have the expertise to keep cars working.
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Näib, et nad oskavad hästi autosid käigus hoida.
06:06
So they started to think,
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Nii tulid nad ideele:
06:08
"Could we build a neonatal incubator
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"Kas me saaksime teha inkubaatori,
06:10
that's built entirely out of automobile parts?"
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mis koosneks täielikult autoosadest?"
06:13
And this is what they ended up coming with.
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Tulemuseks oli see riistapuu siin.
06:15
It's called a "neonurture device."
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Seadme nimi on NeoNurture.
06:17
From the outside, it looks like a normal little thing
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Väljastpoolt paistab see nagu üks tavaline asi,
06:19
you'd find in a modern, Western hospital.
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mida võib näha moodsas lääne haiglas.
06:21
In the inside, it's all car parts.
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Sees on aga autoosad.
06:23
It's got a fan, it's got headlights for warmth,
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Sel on ventilaator, esituled soojuse jaoks
06:25
it's got door chimes for alarm --
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ja autouste alarm häire jaoks.
06:27
it runs off a car battery.
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See töötab autoaku pealt.
06:29
And so all you need is the spare parts from your Toyota
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Nii et vaja on ainult oma Toyota varuosasid,
06:31
and the ability to fix a headlight,
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oskust esituld parandada
06:33
and you can repair this thing.
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ja seda saabki remontida.
06:35
Now, that's a great idea, but what I'd like to say is that, in fact,
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See on muidugi hiilgav idee, aga tegelikult
06:38
this is a great metaphor for the way that ideas happen.
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on see väga hea metafoor ka selle jaoks, kuidas ideed tekivad.
06:40
We like to think our breakthrough ideas, you know,
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Meile meeldib mõelda, et meie läbimurde-ideed
06:42
are like that $40,000, brand new incubator,
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on nagu see hirmkallis, uhiuus inkubaator,
06:44
state-of-the-art technology,
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tehnoloogia viimane sõna,
06:46
but more often than not, they're cobbled together
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aga tihtilugu on uued ideed kokku klopsitud hoopis
06:48
from whatever parts that happen to be around nearby.
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igasugu osadest, mis juhtuvad käepärast olema.
06:50
We take ideas from other people,
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Me võtame ideid teistelt -
06:52
from people we've learned from, from people we run into in the coffee shop,
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nendelt, kellelt õpime; nendelt, kellega juhuslikult kohvikus kokku saame -
06:55
and we stitch them together into new forms and we create something new.
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ja seome need kokku uuteks vormideks, luues midagi täiesti uut.
06:58
That's really where innovation happens.
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Nii toimuvad tegelikult uuendused.
07:01
And that means that we have to change some of our models
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See tähendab, et peame muutma mõningaid oma arusaamu
07:03
of what innovation and deep thinking really looks like, right.
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sellest, kuidas uuendus ja ideede areng toimuvad.
07:06
I mean, this is one vision of it.
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See on üks nägemus sellest.
07:08
Another is Newton and the apple, when Newton was at Cambridge.
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Teine on Newton ja õun ajast, mil Newton Cambridge'is oli.
07:11
This is a statue from Oxford.
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See on kuju Oxfordis.
07:13
You know, you're sitting there thinking a deep thought,
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Teate küll, puu all istumise ja sügavalt mõtlemise ajal
07:15
and the apple falls from the tree, and you have the theory of gravity.
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kukub puu otsast õun ja äkki ongi olemas gravitatsiooniteooria.
07:18
In fact, the spaces that have historically led to innovation
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Tegelikult näevad kohad, mis läbi ajaloo uuendusteni
07:21
tend to look like this, right.
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on viinud, pigem sellised välja.
07:23
This is Hogarth's famous painting of a kind of political dinner at a tavern,
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See on Hogarthi kuulus maal poliitilisest õhtusöögist kõrtsis,
07:26
but this is what the coffee shops looked like back then.
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aga just sellised olid ka kohvikud tol ajal.
07:29
This is the kind of chaotic environment
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See on selline kaootiline keskkond,
07:31
where ideas were likely to come together,
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kuhu ideed tõenäoliselt kokku tulid,
07:33
where people were likely to have
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kus tõenäoliselt põrkasid kokku
07:35
new, interesting, unpredictable collisions -- people from different backgrounds.
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uus, huvitav ja ettearvamatu erinevate taustadega inimeste näol.
07:38
So, if we're trying to build organizations that are more innovative,
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Seega, kui me tahame uuendusaltimaid organisatsioone,
07:40
we have to build spaces that -- strangely enough -- look a little bit more like this.
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peame looma kohti, mis oleksid sarnased sellele siin.
07:43
This is what your office should look like,
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Sellised peaksid olema teie kontorid.
07:45
is part of my message here.
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See on osa minu sõnumist.
07:47
And one of the problems with this is that
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Üks probleem selle juures on see,
07:49
people are actually -- when you research this field --
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kui asja uurida, on inimesed tegelikult
07:52
people are notoriously unreliable,
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paganama ebausaldusväärsed,
07:54
when they actually kind of self-report
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kui nad kirjeldavad,
07:56
on where they have their own good ideas,
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kus neil head ideed tekivad,
07:58
or their history of their best ideas.
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või kuidas parimad ideed kujunevad.
08:00
And a few years ago, a wonderful researcher named Kevin Dunbar
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Mõned aastad tagasi otsustas suurepärane teadur Kevin Dunbar
08:03
decided to go around
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ringi käia ja sisuliselt
08:05
and basically do the Big Brother approach
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rakendada tõsielusaate lähenemist,
08:07
to figuring out where good ideas come from.
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et teada saada, kust tulevad head ideed.
08:09
He went to a bunch of science labs around the world
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Ta käis mitmetes teaduslaborites üle maailma,
08:12
and videotaped everyone
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filmides seal kõiki
08:14
as they were doing every little bit of their job.
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sellel ajal, kui nad oma igapäevatööd tegid.
08:16
So when they were sitting in front of the microscope,
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Nii seda, kui nad istusid mikroskoobi taga
08:18
when they were talking to their colleague at the water cooler, and all these things.
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kui ka seda, kui nad vestlesid kolleegiga kohvinurgas - kõike sellist.
08:20
And he recorded all of these conversations
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Ta filmis kõiki neid vestlusi
08:22
and tried to figure out where the most important ideas,
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ja üritas välja nuputada, kus sünnivad
08:24
where they happened.
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kõige tähtsamad ideed.
08:26
And when we think about the classic image of the scientist in the lab,
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Tüüpiliselt, kui mõtleme teadlastest laborites, on meil
08:29
we have this image -- you know, they're pouring over the microscope,
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kujutluspilt sellest, teate küll, kuidas nad mikroskoobi all uurides
08:32
and they see something in the tissue sample.
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näevad midagi koeproovis.
08:34
And "oh, eureka," they've got the idea.
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Ja "Oi, heureka!" ongi neil idee käes.
08:37
What happened actually when Dunbar kind of looked at the tape
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Kui Dunbar filmitu läbi vaatas, nägi ta, et tegelikult
08:40
is that, in fact, almost all of the important breakthrough ideas
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tekkisid peaaegu kõik tähtsad läbimurde-ideed
08:43
did not happen alone in the lab, in front of the microscope.
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kusagil mujal, mitte üksinda laboris mikroskoobi taga.
08:46
They happened at the conference table
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Nad tekkisid nõupidamistelaua taga
08:48
at the weekly lab meeting,
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iganädalastel koosolekutel,
08:50
when everybody got together and shared their kind of latest data and findings,
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kui kõik said kokku ja jagasid omavahel uusimaid andmeid ja leide;
08:53
oftentimes when people shared the mistakes they were having,
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tihtipeale siis, kui inimesed rääkisid tehtud vigadest,
08:55
the error, the noise in the signal they were discovering.
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eksimustest ja kõigest, mis takistas läbimurret.
08:58
And something about that environment --
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Midagi selle keskkonna juures -
09:01
and I've started calling it the "liquid network,"
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mina nimetan seda "vedelikvõrgustikuks" -
09:03
where you have lots of different ideas that are together,
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kus on koos palju erinevaid ideid,
09:06
different backgrounds, different interests,
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erinevaid taustu ja huvisid, mis
09:08
jostling with each other, bouncing off each other --
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tõuklevad üksteisega, põrkuvad omavahel -
09:10
that environment is, in fact,
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midagi selles keskkonnas
09:12
the environment that leads to innovation.
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on see, mis viib innovatsioonini.
09:14
The other problem that people have
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Inimeste teine probleem
09:16
is they like to condense their stories of innovation down
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on nende soov suruda oma innovatsioonilood kokku
09:18
to kind of shorter time frames.
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lühemale ajaskaalale.
09:20
So they want to tell the story of the "eureka!" moment.
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Nad tahavad rääkida loo just oma "heureka!" hetkest.
09:23
They want to say, "There I was, I was standing there
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Nad tahavad öelda: "Seal ma siis seisin
09:25
and I had it all suddenly clear in my head."
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ja korraga oligi kõik mu peas selge."
09:27
But in fact, if you go back and look at the historical record,
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Aga tegelikult, kui nad vaatavad ajas tagasi,
09:30
it turns out that a lot of important ideas
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tuleb välja, et paljudel tähtsatel ideedel
09:33
have very long incubation periods --
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on väga pikk inkubatsiooniaeg.
09:36
I call this the "slow hunch."
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Ma panin sellele nimeks "aeglane eelaimus".
09:38
We've heard a lot recently
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Hiljuti on olnud palju kuulda
09:40
about hunch and instinct
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aimustest ja instinktist
09:42
and blink-like sudden moments of clarity,
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ja hetkega saabuvast selgusest,
09:45
but in fact, a lot of great ideas
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kuid tegelikult jäävad paljud suured ideed
09:47
linger on, sometimes for decades,
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mõnikord aastakümneteks
09:49
in the back of people's minds.
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kellegi pähe toppama.
09:51
They have a feeling that there's an interesting problem,
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Neil on tunne, et on üks huvitav probleem,
09:53
but they don't quite have the tools yet to discover them.
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aga neil pole veel päris õigeid tööriistu selle avastamiseks.
09:56
They spend all this time working on certain problems,
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Nad töötavad kogu aeg mingite probleemide kallal,
09:59
but there's another thing lingering there
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aga üks idee ootab ikka oma aega -
10:01
that they're interested in, but they can't quite solve.
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huvitav on see küll, aga lahendust nad ei leia.
10:03
Darwin is a great example of this.
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Darwin on selle kohta hea näide.
10:05
Darwin himself, in his autobiography,
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Darwin ise räägib oma autobiograafias
10:07
tells the story of coming up with the idea
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loo sellest, et idee looduslikust valikust
10:09
for natural selection
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tekkis tal
10:11
as a classic "eureka!" moment.
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klassikalise "heureka!" hetkena.
10:13
He's in his study,
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Oma kabinetis,
10:15
it's October of 1838,
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1838. aasta oktoobris
10:17
and he's reading Malthus, actually, on population.
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luges ta üldse Malthust rahvastiku kohta.
10:19
And all of a sudden,
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Ja ühtäkki
10:21
the basic algorithm of natural selection kind of pops into his head
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turgatab talle pähe loodusliku valiku põhialgoritm ja ta lausub:
10:24
and he says, "Ah, at last, I had a theory with which to work."
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"Lõpuks ometi oli mul teooria, millega edasi töötada."
10:27
That's in his autobiography.
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See on ta autobiograafias.
10:29
About a decade or two ago,
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Kümmekond aastat tagasi
10:31
a wonderful scholar named Howard Gruber went back
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võttis õpetlane nimega Howard Gruber ette
10:33
and looked at Darwin's notebooks from this period.
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ja vaatas läbi Darwini märkmikke sellest perioodist.
10:36
And Darwin kept these copious notebooks
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Darwin pidas mahukaid märkmikke,
10:38
where he wrote down every little idea he had, every little hunch.
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kuhu ta kirjutas üles iga väikseimagi idee ja õrna aimuse.
10:41
And what Gruber found was
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Gruber leidis, et
10:43
that Darwin had the full theory of natural selection
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Darwinil oli terve loodusliku valiku teooria olemas
10:46
for months and months and months
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juba mitmeid kuid enne
10:48
before he had his alleged epiphany,
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oma väidetavat ilmutushetke
10:50
reading Malthus in October of 1838.
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1838.a. oktoobris Malthust lugedes.
10:53
There are passages where you can read it,
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On olemas lõigud, mida lugedes tekib
10:55
and you think you're reading from a Darwin textbook,
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tunne, nagu oleksid need mõnest Darwini õpikust
10:58
from the period before he has this epiphany.
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tema avastusele eelnevast ajast.
11:01
And so what you realize is that Darwin, in a sense,
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Nii saamegi aru, et teatud mõttes oli Darwinil
11:03
had the idea, he had the concept,
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juba see käsitlus olemas,
11:05
but was unable of fully thinking it yet.
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aga veel mõtlemises "kinni".
11:08
And that is actually how great ideas often happen;
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Tihtipeale head ideed just nii tekivadki:
11:11
they fade into view over long periods of time.
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nad tõusevad pinnale pika aja jooksul.
11:13
Now the challenge for all of us is:
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Meie kõigi ees seisab väljakutse:
11:15
how do you create environments
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kuidas luua selliseid keskkondi,
11:17
that allow these ideas to have this kind of long half-life, right?
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mis võimaldavad ideedele pikka küpsemisperioodi?
11:19
It's hard to go to your boss and say,
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Raske on minna ja öelda oma ülemusele:
11:21
"I have an excellent idea for our organization.
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"Mul on suurepärane idee meie ettevõtte jaoks.
11:23
It will be useful in 2020.
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See muutub kasulikuks 2020. aastal.
11:26
Could you just give me some time to do that?"
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Kas annate mulle sellega tegelemiseks aega?"
11:28
Now a couple of companies -- like Google --
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Mõned ettevõtted, nagu näiteks Google,
11:30
they have innovation time off, 20 percent time,
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annavad 20% tööajast vabaks uuenduste jaoks,
11:32
where, in a sense, those are hunch-cultivating mechanisms in an organization.
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mis tegelikult ongi ettevõttesisene aimuste küpsemise tööriist.
11:35
But that's a key thing.
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See ongi edu võti.
11:38
And the other thing is to allow those hunches
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Teine asi on lasta neil aimustel
11:40
to connect with other people's hunches; that's what often happens.
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luua ühendus teiste inimeste ideedega - mis ka tihtipeale juhtub.
11:43
You have half of an idea, somebody else has the other half,
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Sul on üks pool ideest, kellelgi on selle idee teine pool
11:45
and if you're in the right environment,
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ja õiges keskkonnas olles
11:47
they turn into something larger than the sum of their parts.
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muutuvad need millekski suuremaks kui 1+1.
11:49
So, in a sense,
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Ühest küljest
11:51
we often talk about the value
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räägime me tihti, kui tähtis on
11:53
of protecting intellectual property,
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intellektuaalse omandi kaitse,
11:55
you know, building barricades,
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teate küll, tõkete ehitamine,
11:57
having secretive R&D labs, patenting everything that we have,
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arenduslaborites salatsemine, kõige olemasoleva patenteerimine,
12:00
so that those ideas will remain valuable,
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et ideed säilitaksid oma väärtuse
12:03
and people will be incentivized to come up with more ideas,
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ja inimesed oleksid motiveeritud uusi ideid välja käima
12:05
and the culture will be more innovative.
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ning kultuur muutuks uuendusaltimaks.
12:08
But I think there's a case to be made
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Teisest küljest aga on vajalik
12:10
that we should spend at least as much time, if not more,
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kulutada sama palju aega, kui mitte rohkem,
12:13
valuing the premise of connecting ideas
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ideede eos ühendamise väärtustamisele,
12:15
and not just protecting them.
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mitte ainult nende kaitsmisele.
12:17
And I'll leave you with this story,
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Lõpetuseks räägin ma teile ühe loo,
12:19
which I think captures a lot of these values,
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mis minu arvates näitab neid väärtusi
12:22
and it's just wonderful kind of tale of innovation
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ja on väga hea lugu
12:24
and how it happens in unlikely ways.
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ettearvamatust innovatsioonist.
12:27
It's October of 1957,
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On 1957.a oktoober,
12:30
and Sputnik has just launched,
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Sputnik on hiljuti startinud.
12:32
and we're in Laurel Maryland,
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Me oleme Laurelis, Marylandis,
12:34
at the applied physics lab
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rakendusfüüsika laboris,
12:36
associated with Johns Hopkins University.
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mis on osa Johns Hopkinsi Ülikoolist.
12:38
And it's Monday morning,
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On esmaspäeva hommik
12:40
and the news has just broken about this satellite
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ja uudised Maa ümber tiirlevast satelliidist
12:42
that's now orbiting the planet.
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on just teatavaks saanud.
12:45
And of course, this is nerd heaven, right?
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Mõistagi oleme me nohikute paradiisis.
12:47
There are all these physics geeks who are there thinking,
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Kõik need füüsikatarkurid mõtlevad:
12:49
"Oh my gosh! This is incredible. I can't believe this has happened."
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"Jessas! See on vapustav. Ma ei suuda uskuda, et see juhtus."
12:52
And two of them,
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Kaks neist,
12:54
two 20-something researchers at the APL
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füüsikalabori teadurid vanuses 20 ja natuke peale,
12:56
are there at the cafeteria table
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istuvad kohvikulaua taga
12:58
having an informal conversation with a bunch of their colleagues.
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ja ajavad töökaaslastega niisama juttu.
13:01
And these two guys are named Guier and Weiffenbach.
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Nende meeste nimed on Guier ja Weiffenbach.
13:04
And they start talking, and one of them says,
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Nad ajavad juttu ja üks neist ütleb:
13:06
"Hey, has anybody tried to listen for this thing?
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"Hei, kas keegi on proovinud seda värki kuulata?
13:08
There's this, you know, man-made satellite up there in outer space
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Seal üleval kosmoses on ju inimkäte loodud satelliit,
13:11
that's obviously broadcasting some kind of signal.
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kindlasti saadab see välja mingisugust signaali.
13:13
We could probably hear it, if we tune in."
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Seda saaks ilmselt kuulda, kui õigesti häälestada."
13:16
And so they ask around to a couple of their colleagues,
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Nad uurivad mõne kolleegi käest
13:18
and everybody's like, "No, I hadn't thought of doing that.
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ja need vastavad: "Ei, ma pole selle peale mõelnud.
13:20
That's an interesting idea."
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See on huvitav idee."
13:22
And it turns out Weiffenbach is kind of an expert
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Tuleb välja, et Weiffenbach on tegelikult ekspert
13:25
in microwave reception,
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mikrolainete vastuvõtmise alal
13:27
and he's got a little antennae set up
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ja tal on tööruumis olemas
13:29
with an amplifier in his office.
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väiksed antennid koos võimendiga.
13:31
And so Guier and Weiffenbach go back to Weiffenbach's office,
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Guier ja Weiffenbach lähevad tagasi viimase ruumi
13:33
and they start kind of noodling around -- hacking, as we might call it now.
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ja hakkavad proovima - või häkkima, nagu praegusel ajal öeldakse.
13:36
And after a couple of hours, they actually start picking up the signal,
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Juba paari tunni pärast püüavad nad signaali kinni,
13:39
because the Soviets made Sputnik
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sest Nõukogude Liit tegi Sputniku
13:41
very easy to track.
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väga lihtsalt jälgitavaks.
13:43
It was right at 20 MHz, so you could pick it up really easily,
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Sagedus oli täpselt 20 MHz ja signaali oli kerge kinni püüda,
13:46
because they were afraid that people would think it was a hoax, basically.
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sest nad kartsid, et seda peetakse pettuseks.
13:48
So they made it really easy to find it.
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Nii nad muutsidki selle kergesti leitavaks.
13:50
So these two guys are sitting there listening to this signal,
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Need kaks meest istuvad siis seal ja kuulavad seda signaali.
13:53
and people start kind of coming into the office and saying,
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ja inimesed tulevad ruumist läbi ja ütlevad:
13:55
"Wow, that's pretty cool. Can I hear? Wow, that's great."
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"Vau, see on päris lahe. Las ma kuulan ka. Vinge!"
13:58
And before long, they think, "Well jeez, this is kind of historic.
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Varsti tuleb neil uus mõte: "Aga see on ju midagi ajaloolist.
14:01
We may be the first people in the United States to be listening to this.
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Võib-olla oleme me esimesed Ameerika Ühendriikides, kes seda kuulevad.
14:03
We should record it."
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Salvestame seda."
14:05
And so they bring in this big, clunky analog tape recorder
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Nad toovad kohale suure, kohmaka magnetofoni
14:07
and they start recording these little bleep, bleeps.
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ja hakkavad neid väikeseid piikse lindistama.
14:10
And they start writing the kind of date stamp, time stamps
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Nad kirjutavad üles ka kuupäeva ja ajamärgised
14:13
for each little bleep that they record.
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iga väikese lindistatud piiksu kohta.
14:16
And they they start thinking, "Well gosh, you know, we're noticing
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Nad hakkavad mõtlema: "Aga, vaadake, me märkame siin
14:18
small little frequency variations here.
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väikeseid muutusi sageduses.
14:21
We could probably calculate the speed
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Me saame ilmselt arvutada kiiruse,
14:24
that the satellite is traveling,
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millega satelliit liigub,
14:26
if we do a little basic math here
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kui teeme mõned arvutused
14:28
using the Doppler effect."
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Doppleri efekti kasutades."
14:30
And then they played around with it a little bit more,
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Siis nad mängisid sellega veel natuke ja
14:32
and they talked to a couple of their colleagues
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rääkisid paari kolleegiga
14:34
who had other kind of specialties.
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teistelt erialadelt.
14:36
And they said, "Jeez, you know,
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Siis nad arvasid: "Teate, aga
14:38
we think we could actually take a look at the slope of the Doppler effect
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me usume, et saame Doppleri efekti kallet vaadates
14:40
to figure out the points at which
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määrata ära need punktid,
14:42
the satellite is closest to our antennae
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kus satelliit on antennidele kõige lähemal
14:44
and the points at which it's farthest away.
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ja kus ta on nendest kõige kaugemal.
14:46
That's pretty cool."
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See on päris lahe."
14:48
And eventually, they get permission --
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Lõpuks nad saavadki loa -
14:50
this is all a little side project that hadn't been officially part of their job description.
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see kõik oli väike kõrvalprojekt, mis ei olnud ametlikult nende tööülesanne.
14:53
They get permission to use the new, you know, UNIVAC computer
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Nad saavad loa kasutada uut UNIVAC arvutit,
14:56
that takes up an entire room that they'd just gotten at the APL.
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mis võtab enda alla terve toa ja mille labor oli just saanud.
14:59
They run some more of the numbers, and at the end of about three or four weeks,
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Nad teevad veel mõned arvutused ja umbes kolme-nelja nädala pärast
15:02
turns out they have mapped the exact trajectory
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on nad kaardistanud satelliidi täpse trajektoori
15:05
of this satellite around the Earth,
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ümber Maa - ning seda kõike
15:07
just from listening to this one little signal,
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lihtsalt üht väikest signaali kuulates,
15:09
going off on this little side hunch that they'd been inspired to do
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üht kõrvalist aimust järgides, millele nad said innustust
15:12
over lunch one morning.
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söögilauavestluse ajal.
15:15
A couple weeks later their boss, Frank McClure,
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Paar nädalat hiljem kutsub nende ülemus Frank McClure
15:18
pulls them into the room and says,
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nad oma kabinetti ja ütleb:
15:20
"Hey, you guys, I have to ask you something
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"Kuulge, ma pean teilt midagi küsima
15:22
about that project you were working on.
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projekti kohta, mille kallal te töötasite.
15:24
You've figured out an unknown location
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Te määrasite kindlaks ümber Maa tiirleva
15:26
of a satellite orbiting the planet
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satelliidi asukoha
15:29
from a known location on the ground.
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ühest kindlast asukohast maa peal.
15:31
Could you go the other way?
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Kas teistpidi ka saab?
15:33
Could you figure out an unknown location on the ground,
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Kas te saate kindlaks määrata teadmata asukoha Maal,
15:35
if you knew the location of the satellite?"
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kui teate satelliidi asukohta?"
15:38
And they thought about it and they said,
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Nad mõtlesid ja ütlesid:
15:40
"Well, I guess maybe you could. Let's run the numbers here."
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"Arvatavasti saab. Peame mõned arvutused tegema."
15:43
So they went back, and they thought about it.
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Nad läksid tagasi ja mõtlesid sellest.
15:45
And they came back and said, "Actually, it'll be easier."
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Tagasi tulles ütlesid nad: "See on tegelikult lihtsamgi."
15:47
And he said, "Oh, that's great.
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McClure vastas: "Väga hea.
15:49
Because see, I have these new nuclear submarines
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Vaadake, mul on uued tuumaallveelaevad,
15:52
that I'm building.
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neid parasjagu ehitatakse.
15:54
And it's really hard to figure out how to get your missile
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Väga raske on kindlaks määrata raketi teekonda,
15:57
so that it will land right on top of Moscow,
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et see täpselt Moskvat tabaks,
15:59
if you don't know where the submarine is in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
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kui pole teada, kus allveelaev Vaikses ookeanis täpselt asub.
16:02
So we're thinking, we could throw up a bunch of satellites
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Me mõtlesime, et võiks üles saata hulga satelliite ja
16:05
and use it to track our submarines
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jälgida nendega meie allveelaevu,
16:08
and figure out their location in the middle of the ocean.
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määrates kindlaks nende asukoha keset ookeani.
16:10
Could you work on that problem?"
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Kas te saate sellega tegeleda?"
16:12
And that's how GPS was born.
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Nii sündiski GPS.
16:15
30 years later,
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30 aastat hiljem
16:17
Ronald Reagan actually opened it up and made it an open platform
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avas Ronald Reagan selle tsiviilkasutuseks ja muutis avatud platvormiks,
16:20
that anybody could kind of build upon
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kuhu igaüks võib peale ehitada
16:22
and anybody could come along and build new technology
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ja juurde arendada uut tehnoloogiat, mis
16:25
that would create and innovate
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oleks loov ja innovaatiline.
16:27
on top of this open platform,
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Sellele avatud platvormile
16:29
left it open for anyone to do
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võis igaüks rajada
16:31
pretty much anything they wanted with it.
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praktiliselt kõike, mida ta teha tahtis.
16:33
And now, I guarantee you
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Ja nüüd ma garanteerin,
16:35
certainly half of this room, if not more,
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et vähemalt pooltel siinolijaist
16:37
has a device sitting in their pocket right now
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on praegu taskus mõni seade,
16:39
that is talking to one of these satellites in outer space.
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mis räägib ühega neist satelliitidest avakosmoses.
16:42
And I bet you one of you, if not more,
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Ja ma vean kihla, et vähemalt üks teist
16:45
has used said device and said satellite system
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on kasutanud seda seadet ja satelliite
16:48
to locate a nearby coffeehouse somewhere in the last --
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mõne lähedal asuva kohviku leidmiseks viimase ...
16:51
(Laughter)
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(Naer)
16:53
in the last day or last week, right?
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päeva või nädala jooksul, õigus?
16:56
(Applause)
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(Aplaus)
16:59
And that, I think,
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Ja see, ma usun,
17:01
is a great case study, a great lesson
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on väga hea näide ja õppetund
17:04
in the power, the marvelous, kind of unplanned
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sellest imelisest, planeerimata, arenevast,
17:06
emergent, unpredictable power
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ettearvamatust jõust, mis on
17:09
of open innovative systems.
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avatud innovaatilistel süsteemidel.
17:11
When you build them right, they will be led to completely new directions
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Kui need õigesti ehitada, antakse neile hoopis teistsugune suund,
17:13
that the creators never even dreamed of.
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kui nende loojad eales ette oskavad kujutada.
17:15
I mean, here you have these guys
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Needsamad kaks meest
17:17
who basically thought they were just following this hunch,
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mõtlesid, et nad järgisid lihtsalt üht ideekest,
17:19
this little passion that had developed,
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seda väikest tekkinud kirge;
17:21
then they thought they were fighting the Cold War,
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pärastpoole nad arvasid, et peavad külma sõda,
17:23
and then it turns out they're just helping somebody
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ja nüüd tuleb välja, et nad aitavad kellelgi lihtsalt
17:25
find a soy latte.
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tassi kohvi leida.
17:27
(Laughter)
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(Naer)
17:29
That is how innovation happens.
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Nii toimubki innovatsioon.
17:31
Chance favors the connected mind.
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Juhus soosib seoseid loovat mõistust.
17:33
Thank you very much.
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Suur tänu!
17:35
(Applause)
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(Aplaus)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Johnson - WriterSteven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience.
Why you should listen
Steven Johnson is a leading light of today's interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to innovation. His writings have influenced everything from cutting-edge ideas in urban planning to the battle against 21st-century terrorism. Johnson was chosen by Prospect magazine as one of the top ten brains of the digital future, and The Wall Street Journal calls him "one of the most persuasive advocates for the role of collaboration in innovation."
Johnson's work on the history of innovation inspired the Emmy-nominated six-part series on PBS, "How We Got To Now with Steven Johnson," which aired in the fall of 2014. The book version of How We Got To Now was a finalist for the PEN/E.O. Wilson Literary Science Writing Award. His new book, Wonderland: How Play Made the Modern World, revolves around the creative power of play and delight: ideas and innovations that set into motion many momentous changes in science, technology, politics and society.
Johnson is also the author of the bestselling Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation, one of his many books celebrating progress and innovation. Others include The Invention of Air and The Ghost Map. Everything Bad Is Good For You, one of the most discussed books of 2005, argued that the increasing complexity of modern media is training us to think in more complex ways. Emergence and Future Perfect explore the power of bottom-up intelligence in both nature and contemporary society.
An innovator himself, Johnson has co-created three influential sites: the pioneering online magazine FEED, the Webby-Award-winning community site, Plastic.com, and the hyperlocal media site outside.in, which was acquired by AOL in 2011.
Johnson is a regular contributor to WIRED magazine, as well as the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and many other periodicals. He has appeared on many high-profile television programs, including "The Charlie Rose Show," "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer."
Steven Johnson | Speaker | TED.com