TEDGlobal 2010
Steven Johnson: Where good ideas come from
Steven Johnson: Odakle potječu dobre ideje
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Ljudi često misle kako njihove ideje potječu iz pojedinačnih "Eureka!" trenutaka. Ali Steven Johnson pokazuje kako nam povijest govori drugačiju priču. Njegovo očaravajuće predavanje nas vodi od "likvidnih mreža" londonskih kafića preko dugog i sporog otkrića Charlesa Darwina, do današnjeg brzog Interneta.
Steven Johnson - Writer
Steven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience. Full bio
Steven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Just a few minutes ago, I took this picture
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Prije nekoliko minuta, snimio sam ovu fotografiju
00:18
about 10 blocks from here.
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otprilike desetak ulica odavde.
00:20
This is the Grand Cafe here in Oxford.
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Ovo je Grand Cafe, tu u Oxfordu.
00:23
I took this picture because this turns out to be
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Snimio sam ovu fotografiju jer ispada da je to
00:26
the first coffeehouse to open
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prvi kafić otvoren
00:28
in England in 1650.
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u Engleskoj 1650. godine.
00:30
That's its great claim to fame,
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U tome leži njegova slava.
00:32
and I wanted to show it to you,
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Želio sam vam ga pokazati,
00:34
not because I want to give you the kind of Starbucks tour
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ne zato da vas provedem kroz povijesni Starbucks
00:36
of historic England,
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Engleske,
00:38
but rather because
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već stoga što su
00:40
the English coffeehouse was crucial
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Engleski kafići bili presudni
00:42
to the development and spread
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za razvoj i širenje
00:45
of one of the great intellectual flowerings of the last 500 years,
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jednog od najvećih intelektualnih procvata u zadnjih 500 godina,
00:48
what we now call the Enlightenment.
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ono što danas zovemo Prosvjetiteljstvom.
00:51
And the coffeehouse played such a big role
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A kafići su odigrali tako veliku ulogu
00:53
in the birth of the Enlightenment,
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u rođenju Prosvjetiteljstva,
00:55
in part, because of what people were drinking there.
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djelomice poradi onoga što se u njima pilo.
00:57
Because, before the spread
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Zato što je, prije širenja
01:00
of coffee and tea through British culture,
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kave i čaja britanskom kulturom,
01:03
what people drank -- both elite and mass folks drank --
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ono što su ljudi pili - ono što je bilo piće i elite i narodnih masa –
01:06
day-in and day-out, from dawn until dusk
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iz dana u dan, od jutra do sutra,
01:08
was alcohol.
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bio alkohol.
01:10
Alcohol was the daytime beverage of choice.
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Alkohol je bio dnevno piće izbora.
01:12
You would drink a little beer with breakfast and have a little wine at lunch,
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Popili biste malo pivo uz doručak i nešto vina uz ručak,
01:15
a little gin -- particularly around 1650 --
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malo džina – osobito oko 1650-e –
01:18
and top it off with a little beer and wine at the end of the day.
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a povrh toga malo piva i vina na kraju dana.
01:20
That was the healthy choice -- right --
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Ovo je bio zdravi izbor, ustvari,
01:22
because the water wasn't safe to drink.
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zato što voda nije bila sigurna za piće.
01:24
And so, effectively until the rise of the coffeehouse,
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I tako, zapravo, do uspona kafića,
01:27
you had an entire population
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cijela populacija
01:29
that was effectively drunk all day.
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bila je pijana cijeli dan.
01:32
And you can imagine what that would be like, right, in your own life --
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A možete si zamisliti čemu bi to bilo nalik, zapravo, u vašem vlastitom životu –
01:34
and I know this is true of some of you --
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a ja znam da je to istina nekih od vas –
01:36
if you were drinking all day,
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ako ste pili po cijeli dan,
01:39
and then you switched from a depressant to a stimulant in your life,
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kad biste se prebacili sa depresiva na stimulanse u svom životu,
01:42
you would have better ideas.
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imali biste bolje ideje.
01:44
You would be sharper and more alert.
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Bili biste oštroumniji i živahniji.
01:46
And so it's not an accident that a great flowering of innovation happened
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I zato nije slučajno da se veliki procvat inovacija dogodio
01:49
as England switched to tea and coffee.
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u trenutku kad se Engleska prebacila na čaj i kavu.
01:52
But the other thing that makes the coffeehouse important
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No druga stvar koja kafiće čini važnima
01:55
is the architecture of the space.
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je arhitektura prostora.
01:57
It was a space where people would get together
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To je bio prostor u kojemu su se zajedno našli ljudi
01:59
from different backgrounds,
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različita obrazovanja,
02:01
different fields of expertise, and share.
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različitih područja ekspertize i imali nešto zajedničko.
02:03
It was a space, as Matt Ridley talked about, where ideas could have sex.
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To je bio prostor, kao što je govorio Matt Ridley, u kojemu su ideje mogle doživjeti seks.
02:06
This was their conjugal bed, in a sense --
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Ovo je bio njihov bračni krevet, u nekom smislu.
02:08
ideas would get together there.
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Ideje bi se tamo spajale.
02:10
And an astonishing number of innovations from this period
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Iznenađujući broj inovacija iz toga doba
02:13
have a coffeehouse somewhere in their story.
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imaju kafić negdje u svojoj priči.
02:16
I've been spending a lot of time thinking about coffeehouses
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Provodio sam mnogo vremena razmišljajući o kafićima
02:19
for the last five years,
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u zadnjih pet godina,
02:21
because I've been kind of on this quest
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jer sam bio u traganju za
02:23
to investigate this question
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odgovorom na pitanje
02:25
of where good ideas come from.
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od kuda dolaze dobre ideje.
02:27
What are the environments
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Kakva su okruženja
02:29
that lead to unusual levels of innovation,
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koja dovode do neuobičajene razine inovacija,
02:32
unusual levels of creativity?
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neuobičajene razine kreativnosti?
02:35
What's the kind of environmental --
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Koja je to vrsta okruženja –
02:37
what is the space of creativity?
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što je prostor za kreativnost?
02:39
And what I've done is
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I ono što sam učinio,
02:41
I've looked at both environments like the coffeehouse;
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tragao sam za okruženjem nalik na kafić;
02:43
I've looked at media environments, like the world wide web,
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proučavao sam medijska okruženja kakav je World Wide Web,
02:45
that have been extraordinarily innovative;
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a koji je bio izvanredno inovativan;
02:47
I've gone back to the history of the first cities;
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vratio sam se u povijest prvih gradova;
02:50
I've even gone to biological environments,
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čak sam otišao do bioloških okruženja,
02:52
like coral reefs and rainforests,
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kao što su koraljni grebeni i prašume,
02:54
that involve unusual levels of biological innovation;
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koji sadržavaju neobične razine biološke inovativnosti;
02:57
and what I've been looking for is shared patterns,
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a ono što sam tražio bio je zajednički obrazac,
03:00
kind of signature behavior that shows up
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neku vrstu znakovitog ponašanja koja se iznova
03:02
again and again in all of these environments.
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pojavljuje u svim tim okruženjima.
03:05
Are there recurring patterns that we can learn from,
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Postoje li ponovljeni obrasci iz kojih možemo naučiti,
03:08
that we can take and kind of apply to our own lives,
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koje možemo preuzeti i primijeniti u vlastitim životima,
03:10
or our own organizations,
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ili našim vlastitim organizacijama,
03:12
or our own environments to make them more creative and innovative?
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kako bismo ih učinili kreativnijima i inovativnijima?
03:14
And I think I've found a few.
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I mislim da sam ih pronašao nekoliko.
03:16
But what you have to do to make sense of this
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Ali ono što trebate učiniti da bi ovo imalo smisla
03:19
and to really understand these principles
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i da bi stvarno razumjeli ove principe
03:21
is you have to do away
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jest odmaknuti se
03:23
with a lot of the way in which our conventional metaphors and language
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od uobičajenih metafora i jezika
03:26
steers us towards
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koji nas usmjerava prema
03:28
certain concepts of idea-creation.
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određenim konceptima kreiranja ideja.
03:30
We have this very rich vocabulary
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Mi imamo taj vrlo bogati rječnik
03:32
to describe moments of inspiration.
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koji opisuje trenutke inspiracije.
03:34
We have the kind of the flash of insight,
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Imamo trenutke spoznaje,
03:37
the stroke of insight,
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bljesak spoznaje,
03:39
we have epiphanies, we have "eureka!" moments,
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imamo uvide, „eureka!“ trenutke,
03:42
we have the lightbulb moments, right?
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zatim trenutke prosvjetljenja, zar ne?
03:44
All of these concepts,
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Svi ovi pojmovi,
03:46
as kind of rhetorically florid as they are,
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kao vrste retoričkih ukrasa, što i jesu,
03:49
share this basic assumption,
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dijele istu osnovnu pretpostavku,
03:51
which is that an idea is a single thing,
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a to je da je ideja jedna stvar,
03:54
it's something that happens often
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nešto što se često događa
03:56
in a wonderful illuminating moment.
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u predivnom trenutku prosvjetljenja.
03:59
But in fact, what I would argue and what you really need to kind of begin with
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No ustvari, što bih ja prodiskutirao, i od čega vi stvarno trebate početi,
04:02
is this idea that an idea is a network
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je misao da je ideja mreža
04:05
on the most elemental level.
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na najosnovnijoj razini.
04:07
I mean, this is what is happening inside your brain.
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Ustvari, evo što se događa u vašoj glavi.
04:09
An idea -- a new idea -- is a new network of neurons
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Neka ideja, nova ideja, je nova mreža neurona
04:12
firing in sync with each other inside your brain.
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koji šalju signale sinkronizirano jedan s drugim u vašoj glavi.
04:15
It's a new configuration that has never formed before.
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To je konfiguracija nikad prije stvorena.
04:18
And the question is: how do you get your brain into environments
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Pitanje je: kako staviti svoj mozak u okoliš
04:21
where these new networks are going to be more likely to form?
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u kojemu je najvjerojatnije da će se ove mreže složiti?
04:24
And it turns out that, in fact, the kind of network patterns of the outside world
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Ispostavilo se, ustvari, da obrasci mreža iz vanjskog svijeta
04:27
mimic a lot of the network patterns
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oponašaju mreže
04:29
of the internal world of the human brain.
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unutarnjeg svijeta mozga.
04:32
So the metaphor I'd like the use
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Metaforu koju bih volio koristiti
04:34
I can take
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uzeo sam
04:36
from a story of a great idea that's quite recent --
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iz suvremene priče o izvrsnoj ideji –
04:39
a lot more recent than the 1650s.
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znatno suvremenije od 1650-ih.
04:43
A wonderful guy named Timothy Prestero,
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Izvanredni momak imenom Timothy Prestero
04:45
who has a company called ... an organization called Design That Matters.
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koji ima tvrtku imenom … organizaciju koja se zove Dizajn koji je važan.
04:48
They decided to tackle this really pressing problem
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Oni su odlučili latiti se neodložnog problema,
04:53
of, you know, the terrible problems we have with infant mortality rates
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znate, užasnog problema smrtnosti djece
04:55
in the developing world.
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u zemljama u razvoju.
04:57
One of the things that's very frustrating about this is that we know,
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Jedna od stvari koja je užasno frustrirajuća u vezi s tim,
05:00
by getting modern neonatal incubators
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je postaviti moderne inkubatore
05:03
into any context,
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za dojenčad,
05:05
if we can keep premature babies warm, basically -- it's very simple --
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jer ako možete održavati preuranjeno rođene bebe toplima, u osnovi - to je vrlo jednostavno –
05:08
we can halve infant mortality rates in those environments.
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možete prepoloviti dojenačku smrt u tim krajevima.
05:11
So, the technology is there.
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Dakle, tehnologija postoji.
05:13
These are standard in all the industrialized worlds.
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Ona je standard u cijelom industrijskom svijetu.
05:16
The problem is, if you buy a $40,000 incubator,
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Problem je, ako kupite inkubator od 40 000 $ i
05:19
and you send it off
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pošaljete ga u
05:21
to a mid-sized village in Africa,
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selo srednje veličine u Afriku,
05:23
it will work great for a year or two years,
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radit će odlično godinu dana ili dvije,
05:25
and then something will go wrong and it will break,
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zatim će se pokvariti i sve će propasti
05:28
and it will remain broken forever,
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jer će ostati zauvijek pokvaren,
05:30
because you don't have a whole system of spare parts,
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jer vam nedostaje cijeli sustav opskrbe rezervnim dijelovima
05:33
and you don't have the on-the-ground expertise
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i nemate na licu mjesta stručnjake
05:35
to fix this $40,000 piece of equipment.
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da popravite komad opreme vrijedan 40 000$.
05:37
And so you end up having this problem where you spend all this money
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I tako završite s tim problemom nakon što ste potrošili sav taj novac
05:39
getting aid and all these advanced electronics to these countries,
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da dopremite pomoć i svu tu naprednu elektroniku do ovih zemalja,
05:42
and then it ends up being useless.
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koja na kraju završi kao beskorisna.
05:44
So what Prestero and his team decided to do
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Pa su Prestero i njegov tim odlučili
05:46
is to look around and see: what are the abundant resources
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potražiti uokolo i pronaći: koja su sredstva u izobilju na raspolaganju
05:49
in these developing world contexts?
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u kontekstu zemalja u razvoju?
05:51
And what they noticed was they don't have a lot of DVRs,
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Primijetili su kako oni nemaju puno DVR-ova
05:54
they don't have a lot of microwaves,
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i mikrovalnih pećnica,
05:56
but they seem to do a pretty good job of keeping their cars on the road.
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ali se čini kako rade sasvim dobar posao u održavanju svojih automobila na cestama.
05:59
There's a Toyota Forerunner
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Na sve strane na svim ulicama vidite
06:01
on the street in all these places.
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Toyota Forerunner.
06:03
They seem to have the expertise to keep cars working.
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Čini se kako imaju stručnjake za održavanje automobila.
06:06
So they started to think,
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Zato su počeli razmišljati,
06:08
"Could we build a neonatal incubator
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„Možemo li napraviti inkubator za dojenčad
06:10
that's built entirely out of automobile parts?"
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sastavljen samo od automobilskih dijelova?“
06:13
And this is what they ended up coming with.
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I evo do čega su došli.
06:15
It's called a "neonurture device."
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Zove se uređaj za njegovanje novorođenčadi.
06:17
From the outside, it looks like a normal little thing
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Izvana izgleda kao normalna mala stvarčica
06:19
you'd find in a modern, Western hospital.
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koju nalazite u modernim zapadnjačkim bolnicama.
06:21
In the inside, it's all car parts.
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Unutra su automobilski dijelovi.
06:23
It's got a fan, it's got headlights for warmth,
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Ima ventilator, farove za grijanje,
06:25
it's got door chimes for alarm --
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zvono sa ulaznih vrata za alarm.
06:27
it runs off a car battery.
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Ide na akumulator iz automobila.
06:29
And so all you need is the spare parts from your Toyota
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Pa tako sve što vam treba su rezervni dijelovi iz vaše Toyote
06:31
and the ability to fix a headlight,
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i vještina popravljanja farova,
06:33
and you can repair this thing.
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da ga popravite.
06:35
Now, that's a great idea, but what I'd like to say is that, in fact,
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I sada, to je izvrsna ideja, ali ono što želim reći,
06:38
this is a great metaphor for the way that ideas happen.
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da je ovo ustvari izvrsna metafora za način kako se događaju velike ideje.
06:40
We like to think our breakthrough ideas, you know,
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Volimo misliti kao su naše revolucionarne ideje, znate,
06:42
are like that $40,000, brand new incubator,
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poput posve novog inkubatora od 40 000$,
06:44
state-of-the-art technology,
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vrhunac tehnologije,
06:46
but more often than not, they're cobbled together
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no češće ne nego da, sklepane su od
06:48
from whatever parts that happen to be around nearby.
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kakvih god komadića koji su se zadesili u blizini.
06:50
We take ideas from other people,
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Preuzimamo ideje od drugih ljudi,
06:52
from people we've learned from, from people we run into in the coffee shop,
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od ljudi od kojih smo učili, od ljudi na koje smo naletjeli u kafiću
06:55
and we stitch them together into new forms and we create something new.
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i skrpamo ih zajedno u novi oblik i stvorimo nešto novo.
06:58
That's really where innovation happens.
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To je stvarno mjesto na kojemu nastaju ideje.
07:01
And that means that we have to change some of our models
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To znači da moramo promijeniti neke od naših modela
07:03
of what innovation and deep thinking really looks like, right.
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o tome kako inovacije i duboko promišljanje stvarno izgledaju.
07:06
I mean, this is one vision of it.
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Ustvari, ovo je jedno viđenje toga.
07:08
Another is Newton and the apple, when Newton was at Cambridge.
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Drugo je Newton i jabuka, dok je Newton bio u Cambridgu.
07:11
This is a statue from Oxford.
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Ovo je statua iz Oxforda.
07:13
You know, you're sitting there thinking a deep thought,
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Znate, sjedite tamo duboko zamišljeni,
07:15
and the apple falls from the tree, and you have the theory of gravity.
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jabuka pada sa drveta i vi imate teoriju gravitacije.
07:18
In fact, the spaces that have historically led to innovation
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U stvari, prostori koji su povijesno vodili ka ovom otkriću
07:21
tend to look like this, right.
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izgledaju ovako, točno.
07:23
This is Hogarth's famous painting of a kind of political dinner at a tavern,
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Ovo je slavna Hogarthova slika nekakvog političkog domjenka u gostionici,
07:26
but this is what the coffee shops looked like back then.
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ali tako su nekad izgledali kafići.
07:29
This is the kind of chaotic environment
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To je ona vrsta kaotičnog okruženja
07:31
where ideas were likely to come together,
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u kojemu su se sretale ideje,
07:33
where people were likely to have
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u kojemu su ljudi imali
07:35
new, interesting, unpredictable collisions -- people from different backgrounds.
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nove, zanimljive, nepredvidljive susrete – ljudi iz različitih okruženja.
07:38
So, if we're trying to build organizations that are more innovative,
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I tako, ako nastojimo izgraditi organizacije koje su inovativnije,
07:40
we have to build spaces that -- strangely enough -- look a little bit more like this.
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moramo izgraditi prostore koji, iznenađujuće, izgledaju više poput ovoga.
07:43
This is what your office should look like,
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Ovako bi trebao izgledati vaš ured
07:45
is part of my message here.
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i to je dio moje poruke ovdje.
07:47
And one of the problems with this is that
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Jedan od problema vezanih za to da su
07:49
people are actually -- when you research this field --
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ljudi zapravo – kada se istražuje ovo područje –
07:52
people are notoriously unreliable,
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ljudi su grozno nepouzdani
07:54
when they actually kind of self-report
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kada zapravo sami govore o tome
07:56
on where they have their own good ideas,
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gdje su dobili dobre ideje
07:58
or their history of their best ideas.
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ili o povijesti njihovih najboljih ideja.
08:00
And a few years ago, a wonderful researcher named Kevin Dunbar
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Prije nekoliko godina odlični istraživač Kevih Dunbar
08:03
decided to go around
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odlučio je ići uokolo i
08:05
and basically do the Big Brother approach
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učiniti „Big Brother“ pristup
08:07
to figuring out where good ideas come from.
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otkrivanju odakle dolaze dobre ideje.
08:09
He went to a bunch of science labs around the world
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Otišao je u mnogo znanstvenih laboratorija u svijetu
08:12
and videotaped everyone
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i snimao sve
08:14
as they were doing every little bit of their job.
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dok su radili i najmanje djeliće svojih poslova.
08:16
So when they were sitting in front of the microscope,
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Kada su sjedili ispred mikroskopa,
08:18
when they were talking to their colleague at the water cooler, and all these things.
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kada su pričali s kolegama pored stroja za vodu i ostale stvari.
08:20
And he recorded all of these conversations
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Snimio je sve razgovore i
08:22
and tried to figure out where the most important ideas,
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pokušao otkriti gdje se najvažnije ideje
08:24
where they happened.
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događaju.
08:26
And when we think about the classic image of the scientist in the lab,
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Kada razmišljamo o klasičnoj slici znanstvenika u laboratoriju,
08:29
we have this image -- you know, they're pouring over the microscope,
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zamišljamo ih – znate, nagnute nad mikroskopom
08:32
and they see something in the tissue sample.
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i gledaju nešto u uzorku tkiva.
08:34
And "oh, eureka," they've got the idea.
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I „eureka!“ dobili su ideju.
08:37
What happened actually when Dunbar kind of looked at the tape
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Kada je Dunbar pogledao sve snimke zapravo je vidio
08:40
is that, in fact, almost all of the important breakthrough ideas
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da se gotovo sva značajna otkrića
08:43
did not happen alone in the lab, in front of the microscope.
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nisu dogodila sama u laboratoriju, pred mikroskopima.
08:46
They happened at the conference table
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Dogodila su se za konferencijskim stolovima
08:48
at the weekly lab meeting,
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za vrijeme tjednog sastanka,
08:50
when everybody got together and shared their kind of latest data and findings,
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gdje su se svi sastali i podijelili svoje najnovije podatke i istraživanja,
08:53
oftentimes when people shared the mistakes they were having,
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često su ljudi podijelili i pogreške koje su napravili,
08:55
the error, the noise in the signal they were discovering.
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šum u signalu u otkrićima.
08:58
And something about that environment --
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I nešto vezano za to okruženje –
09:01
and I've started calling it the "liquid network,"
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počeo sam ga zvati „tekuća mreža,“
09:03
where you have lots of different ideas that are together,
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gdje zajedno postoji mnogo različitih ideja,
09:06
different backgrounds, different interests,
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različitih obrazovanja, različitih interesa,
09:08
jostling with each other, bouncing off each other --
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koji se sukobljavaju i odbijaju jedan od drugog –
09:10
that environment is, in fact,
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to okruženje je zapravo,
09:12
the environment that leads to innovation.
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okruženje koje vodi do otkrića.
09:14
The other problem that people have
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Drugi problem koji ljudi imaju je
09:16
is they like to condense their stories of innovation down
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to što vole svoje priče o otkrićima svesti
09:18
to kind of shorter time frames.
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na manje vremenske okvire.
09:20
So they want to tell the story of the "eureka!" moment.
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Zapravo žele ispričati priču o „eureka!“ trenutku.
09:23
They want to say, "There I was, I was standing there
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Žele reći „ Bio sam tamo, stajao i
09:25
and I had it all suddenly clear in my head."
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odjednom mi se sve razbistrilo u glavi.“
09:27
But in fact, if you go back and look at the historical record,
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Zapravo, ako se ode unatrag i pogleda prošle zabilješke,
09:30
it turns out that a lot of important ideas
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ispostavi se da mnogo važnih ideja
09:33
have very long incubation periods --
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imaju dugačko vrijeme inkubacije.
09:36
I call this the "slow hunch."
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To zovem „sporom slutnjom.“
09:38
We've heard a lot recently
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U posljednje vrijeme čuli smo dosta
09:40
about hunch and instinct
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o slutnjama i instinktu i
09:42
and blink-like sudden moments of clarity,
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iznenadnim trenucima bistrine,
09:45
but in fact, a lot of great ideas
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ali zapravo se mnoge velike ideje
09:47
linger on, sometimes for decades,
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zadržavaju, nekada čak i desetljećima,
09:49
in the back of people's minds.
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skrivene u ljudskim umovima.
09:51
They have a feeling that there's an interesting problem,
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Oni imaju osjećaj da postoji zanimljiv problem
09:53
but they don't quite have the tools yet to discover them.
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ali još nemaju oruđe da ih otkriju.
09:56
They spend all this time working on certain problems,
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Provode sve vrijeme radeći na određenom problemu,
09:59
but there's another thing lingering there
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a tu je zapravo nešto drugo
10:01
that they're interested in, but they can't quite solve.
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što ih zanima, ali ne mogu to riješiti.
10:03
Darwin is a great example of this.
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Darwin je odličan primjer toga.
10:05
Darwin himself, in his autobiography,
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Darwin sam u svojoj autobiografiji
10:07
tells the story of coming up with the idea
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priča priču o dolasku do ideje
10:09
for natural selection
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prirodne selekcije
10:11
as a classic "eureka!" moment.
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kao klasičnom „eureka“ trenutku.
10:13
He's in his study,
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On je u svojoj radnoj sobi,
10:15
it's October of 1838,
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listopad je 1838.
10:17
and he's reading Malthus, actually, on population.
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i on čita Malthusovo djelo o populaciji.
10:19
And all of a sudden,
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I odjednom,
10:21
the basic algorithm of natural selection kind of pops into his head
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osnovni algoritam prirodne selekcije stvori mu se u mislima i
10:24
and he says, "Ah, at last, I had a theory with which to work."
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on kaže, „ Ah, konačno imam teoriju s kojom mogu raditi.“
10:27
That's in his autobiography.
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To stoji u njegovoj autobiografiji.
10:29
About a decade or two ago,
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Prije desetljeće-dva,
10:31
a wonderful scholar named Howard Gruber went back
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izvanredni učenjak Howard Gruber
10:33
and looked at Darwin's notebooks from this period.
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pogledao je Darwinove bilježnice iz tog razdoblja.
10:36
And Darwin kept these copious notebooks
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Darwin je imao pune bilježnice
10:38
where he wrote down every little idea he had, every little hunch.
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gdje je zapisivao svaku malu ideju koju je imao, svaku slutnju.
10:41
And what Gruber found was
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Ono što je Gruber otkrio je to
10:43
that Darwin had the full theory of natural selection
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da je Darwin imao cijelu teoriju prirodne selekcije
10:46
for months and months and months
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mjesecima i mjesecima
10:48
before he had his alleged epiphany,
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prije navodnog otkrića dok je
10:50
reading Malthus in October of 1838.
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čitao Malthusa listopada 1838.
10:53
There are passages where you can read it,
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Postoje odlomci koji se mogu pročitati i
10:55
and you think you're reading from a Darwin textbook,
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pomislite da je to Darwinov udžbenik,
10:58
from the period before he has this epiphany.
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a zapravo su iz razdoblja prije njegovog otkrića.
11:01
And so what you realize is that Darwin, in a sense,
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I onda shvatite da je Darwin
11:03
had the idea, he had the concept,
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imao ideju, imao koncept,
11:05
but was unable of fully thinking it yet.
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ali ju nije mogao potpuno domisliti.
11:08
And that is actually how great ideas often happen;
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I to je način kako se velike ideje obično dogode;
11:11
they fade into view over long periods of time.
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postaju jasnije nakon većeg vremenskog razdoblja.
11:13
Now the challenge for all of us is:
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Sada je izazov za sve nas:
11:15
how do you create environments
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kako stvoriti okruženje
11:17
that allow these ideas to have this kind of long half-life, right?
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koje dopušta tim idejama da imaju takav način polu-života, zar ne?
11:19
It's hard to go to your boss and say,
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Teško je otići do svog šefa i reći
11:21
"I have an excellent idea for our organization.
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„ Imam odličnu ideju vezanu za našu organizaciju.
11:23
It will be useful in 2020.
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Bit će korisna 2020.
11:26
Could you just give me some time to do that?"
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Možete li mi samo dati vremena da to učinim?“
11:28
Now a couple of companies -- like Google --
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Nekoliko tvrtki, poput Googlea,
11:30
they have innovation time off, 20 percent time,
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imaju slobodno vrijeme za inovacije, 20 posto vremena,
11:32
where, in a sense, those are hunch-cultivating mechanisms in an organization.
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koje je zapravo mehanizam za uzgajanje slutnji u organizaciji.
11:35
But that's a key thing.
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To je ključna stvar.
11:38
And the other thing is to allow those hunches
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Druga stvar je omogućiti slutnjama
11:40
to connect with other people's hunches; that's what often happens.
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da se povežu sa slutnjama drugih ljudi; to se često događa.
11:43
You have half of an idea, somebody else has the other half,
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Vi imate polovicu ideje, netko ima drugu polovicu i,
11:45
and if you're in the right environment,
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ako ste u pravom okruženju,
11:47
they turn into something larger than the sum of their parts.
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one narastu u nešto veće od zbroja svojih dijelova.
11:49
So, in a sense,
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Često
11:51
we often talk about the value
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govorimo o važnosti
11:53
of protecting intellectual property,
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zaštite intelektualnog vlasništva,
11:55
you know, building barricades,
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znate, gradimo barikade,
11:57
having secretive R&D labs, patenting everything that we have,
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imamo tajne laboratorije za istraživanje i razvoj, patentiramo sve što imamo
12:00
so that those ideas will remain valuable,
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kako bi te ideje ostale vrijedne,
12:03
and people will be incentivized to come up with more ideas,
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i ljudi bili potaknuti da dobiju još ideja
12:05
and the culture will be more innovative.
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i civilizacija bi bila inovativnija.
12:08
But I think there's a case to be made
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Ali mislim da možemo zaključiti
12:10
that we should spend at least as much time, if not more,
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da bi trebali provoditi bar jednako vremena, ako ne i više,
12:13
valuing the premise of connecting ideas
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vrednujući povezivanje ideja,
12:15
and not just protecting them.
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a ne samo njihovu zaštitu.
12:17
And I'll leave you with this story,
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Napustit ću vas sa jednom pričom u
12:19
which I think captures a lot of these values,
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koju su uključene mnoge od ovih vrijednosti,
12:22
and it's just wonderful kind of tale of innovation
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i to je prekrasna priča o inovaciji
12:24
and how it happens in unlikely ways.
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i kako se ona događa na neobične načine.
12:27
It's October of 1957,
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Bio je listopad 1957.
12:30
and Sputnik has just launched,
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i Sputnik je bio lansiran,
12:32
and we're in Laurel Maryland,
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i mi smo bili u Laurel Marylandu
12:34
at the applied physics lab
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u laboratoriju za primijenjenu fiziku
12:36
associated with Johns Hopkins University.
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udruženu sa Sveučilištem Johns Hopkins.
12:38
And it's Monday morning,
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Ponedjeljak ujutro je
12:40
and the news has just broken about this satellite
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i upravo je izišla vijest o tom satelitu
12:42
that's now orbiting the planet.
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koji kruži oko planeta.
12:45
And of course, this is nerd heaven, right?
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Naravno, to je raj za štrebere, zar ne?
12:47
There are all these physics geeks who are there thinking,
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Tu su svi ti štreberi fizike i svi misle
12:49
"Oh my gosh! This is incredible. I can't believe this has happened."
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„ O moj Bože! Ovo je nevjerojatno. Ne mogu vjerovati da se to dogodilo.“
12:52
And two of them,
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I dvojica njih,
12:54
two 20-something researchers at the APL
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dvadesetogodišnjaka istraživača iz laboratorija za fiziku,
12:56
are there at the cafeteria table
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za stolom u kantini
12:58
having an informal conversation with a bunch of their colleagues.
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vode neformalan razgovor sa svojim kolegama.
13:01
And these two guys are named Guier and Weiffenbach.
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Ta dvojica zovu se Guier i Weiffenbach.
13:04
And they start talking, and one of them says,
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Započnu razgovor i jedan od njih kaže,
13:06
"Hey, has anybody tried to listen for this thing?
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" Hej, je li tko pokušao slušati tu stvar?
13:08
There's this, you know, man-made satellite up there in outer space
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Tamo je satelit koji su ljudi napravili i koji se nalazi gore u svemiru
13:11
that's obviously broadcasting some kind of signal.
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i očigledno emitira nekakvu vrstu signala.
13:13
We could probably hear it, if we tune in."
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Vjerojatno bismo ga mogli čuti ako podesimo uređaje.“
13:16
And so they ask around to a couple of their colleagues,
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Pitali su uokolo nekoliko svojih kolega i
13:18
and everybody's like, "No, I hadn't thought of doing that.
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svi su rekli, „Ne, nisam se toga sjetio.
13:20
That's an interesting idea."
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Zanimljiva ideja.“
13:22
And it turns out Weiffenbach is kind of an expert
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I ispostavilo se da je Weiffenbach stručnjak
13:25
in microwave reception,
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u primanju mikrovalova,
13:27
and he's got a little antennae set up
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i da ima malu antenu sa
13:29
with an amplifier in his office.
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pojačivačem postavljenu u svom uredu.
13:31
And so Guier and Weiffenbach go back to Weiffenbach's office,
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I tako su Guier i Weiffenbach otišli do Weiffenbachovog ureda
13:33
and they start kind of noodling around -- hacking, as we might call it now.
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i počeli mozgati – hakirati, kako bismo to mogli nazvati danas.
13:36
And after a couple of hours, they actually start picking up the signal,
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I nakon nekoliko sati uhvatili su signal,
13:39
because the Soviets made Sputnik
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jer je ruski Sputnik
13:41
very easy to track.
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bio lak za praćenje.
13:43
It was right at 20 MHz, so you could pick it up really easily,
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Bio je na 20MHz i moglo ga se lako uhvatiti,
13:46
because they were afraid that people would think it was a hoax, basically.
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jer su se bojali da će ljudi misliti da je to prijevara.
13:48
So they made it really easy to find it.
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Zato su ga napravili jednostavnog za naći.
13:50
So these two guys are sitting there listening to this signal,
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Njih su dvojica sjedili i slušali signal
13:53
and people start kind of coming into the office and saying,
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i ljudi su počeli dolaziti u ured govoreći,
13:55
"Wow, that's pretty cool. Can I hear? Wow, that's great."
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„Wow, to je baš super. Mogu li čuti? Wow to je odlično."
13:58
And before long, they think, "Well jeez, this is kind of historic.
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I ubrzo su pomislili „O Bože, ovo je povijesni trenutak.
14:01
We may be the first people in the United States to be listening to this.
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Mi smo prvi ljudi u SAD-u koji ovo slušaju.
14:03
We should record it."
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Trebali bismo to snimiti.“
14:05
And so they bring in this big, clunky analog tape recorder
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Donijeli su veliki i bučni analogni rekorder i
14:07
and they start recording these little bleep, bleeps.
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počeli snimati te male pištave signale.
14:10
And they start writing the kind of date stamp, time stamps
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I počeli su zapisivati vremenske bilješke, bilješke
14:13
for each little bleep that they record.
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svakog signala kojeg su snimili.
14:16
And they they start thinking, "Well gosh, you know, we're noticing
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I pomislili su „ Oh, primijetili smo
14:18
small little frequency variations here.
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male varijacije frekvencije ovdje.
14:21
We could probably calculate the speed
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Vjerojatno bismo mogli izračunati brzinu
14:24
that the satellite is traveling,
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kojom satelit putuje
14:26
if we do a little basic math here
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ako primijenimo malo osnovne matematike
14:28
using the Doppler effect."
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koristeći Dopplerov učinak.
14:30
And then they played around with it a little bit more,
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I još su se malo igrali s tim
14:32
and they talked to a couple of their colleagues
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i pričali sa nekoliko kolega
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who had other kind of specialties.
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stručnih u različitim područjima.
14:36
And they said, "Jeez, you know,
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Rekli su, „ O Bože, znate,
14:38
we think we could actually take a look at the slope of the Doppler effect
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mislimo da bismo mogli pomoću tih rezultata Dopplerova učinka
14:40
to figure out the points at which
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otkriti točku gdje je
14:42
the satellite is closest to our antennae
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satelit najbliži našoj anteni i
14:44
and the points at which it's farthest away.
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točku gdje je najudaljeniji.
14:46
That's pretty cool."
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To je poprilično super.“
14:48
And eventually, they get permission --
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Naposljetku su dobili dozvolu –
14:50
this is all a little side project that hadn't been officially part of their job description.
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bio je to mali sporedni projekt koji nije bio službeno dio opisa njihovog posla.
14:53
They get permission to use the new, you know, UNIVAC computer
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Dobili su dozvolu da koriste novo UNIVAC računalo
14:56
that takes up an entire room that they'd just gotten at the APL.
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koje je zauzimalo cijelu prostoriju, a koje su tek bili dobili u laboratoriju za primijenjenu fiziku.
14:59
They run some more of the numbers, and at the end of about three or four weeks,
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Obradili su još nekoliko brojeva i nakon tri-četiri tjedna
15:02
turns out they have mapped the exact trajectory
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ispostavilo se da su izračunali točnu putanju
15:05
of this satellite around the Earth,
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satelita oko Zemlje,
15:07
just from listening to this one little signal,
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samo slušajući jedan mali signal
15:09
going off on this little side hunch that they'd been inspired to do
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na koji su skrenuli pažnju prateći intuiciju
15:12
over lunch one morning.
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za vrijeme ručka jednog jutra.
15:15
A couple weeks later their boss, Frank McClure,
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Nekoliko tjedana kasnije njihov šef, Frank McClure,
15:18
pulls them into the room and says,
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pozvao ih je u ured i rekao
15:20
"Hey, you guys, I have to ask you something
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„ Hej momci, moram vas pitati nešto
15:22
about that project you were working on.
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vezano za projekt na kojem radite.
15:24
You've figured out an unknown location
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Otkrili ste nepoznatu lokaciju
15:26
of a satellite orbiting the planet
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satelita koji kruži oko planeta
15:29
from a known location on the ground.
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sa poznate lokacije na zemlji.
15:31
Could you go the other way?
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Možete li obrnuto?
15:33
Could you figure out an unknown location on the ground,
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Možete li otkriti nepoznatu lokaciju na zemlji
15:35
if you knew the location of the satellite?"
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ako znate lokaciju satelita?“
15:38
And they thought about it and they said,
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Razmislili su o tome i rekli
15:40
"Well, I guess maybe you could. Let's run the numbers here."
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„Pa valjda bismo mogli. Da vidimo što kažu brojevi.“
15:43
So they went back, and they thought about it.
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Otišli su i razmislili o tome.
15:45
And they came back and said, "Actually, it'll be easier."
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Kada su se vratili rekli su „Zapravo, bilo bi lakše.“
15:47
And he said, "Oh, that's great.
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A on je rekao „Oh, to je odlično.
15:49
Because see, I have these new nuclear submarines
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Zato što gradim nove nuklearne
15:52
that I'm building.
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podmornice.
15:54
And it's really hard to figure out how to get your missile
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I poprilično je teško otkriti kako usmjeriti projektile
15:57
so that it will land right on top of Moscow,
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da se spuste na Moskvu,
15:59
if you don't know where the submarine is in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
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ako se ne znaju njihove lokacije u Tihom oceanu.
16:02
So we're thinking, we could throw up a bunch of satellites
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Stoga smo mislili, mogli bismo poslati mnogo satelita
16:05
and use it to track our submarines
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i koristiti ih da pratimo naše podmornice
16:08
and figure out their location in the middle of the ocean.
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i otkrijemo njihove lokacije usred oceana.
16:10
Could you work on that problem?"
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Možete li poraditi na tom problemu?“
16:12
And that's how GPS was born.
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I tako je GPS rođen.
16:15
30 years later,
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30 godina kasnije,
16:17
Ronald Reagan actually opened it up and made it an open platform
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Ronald Reagan zapravo je otvorio i učinio to otvorenim pitanjem
16:20
that anybody could kind of build upon
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na temelju kojeg bilo tko može graditi i
16:22
and anybody could come along and build new technology
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bilo tko može osmisliti i izgraditi novu tehnologiju
16:25
that would create and innovate
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koja bi bila kreirana i inovirana
16:27
on top of this open platform,
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na temelju tog otvorenog pitanja,
16:29
left it open for anyone to do
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ostavio ga je otvorenim
16:31
pretty much anything they wanted with it.
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za bilo koga da učini što god hoće.
16:33
And now, I guarantee you
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I sada, jamčim vam
16:35
certainly half of this room, if not more,
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da sigurno polovina ove prostorije, ako ne i više,
16:37
has a device sitting in their pocket right now
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ima uređaj u svojim džepova koji trenutno
16:39
that is talking to one of these satellites in outer space.
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komunicira sa jednim od onih satelita iz svemira.
16:42
And I bet you one of you, if not more,
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I kladim se da je jedan od vas, ako ne i više,
16:45
has used said device and said satellite system
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koristio taj uređaj i naredio sustavu satelita
16:48
to locate a nearby coffeehouse somewhere in the last --
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da locira najbliži kafić prethodnih –
16:51
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
16:53
in the last day or last week, right?
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prethodnih dana ili prošli tjedan. Zar ne?
16:56
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
16:59
And that, I think,
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I to je, mislim,
17:01
is a great case study, a great lesson
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odlično ispitivanje slučaja, odlična lekcija,
17:04
in the power, the marvelous, kind of unplanned
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o snazi, o čudesnoj i neplaniranoj,
17:06
emergent, unpredictable power
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nepredvidivoj moći
17:09
of open innovative systems.
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otvorenog inovativnog sustava.
17:11
When you build them right, they will be led to completely new directions
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Kada ih ispravno izgradite, usmjerit će se u potpuno nove pravce
17:13
that the creators never even dreamed of.
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o kojima njihov stvoritelj nije ni sanjao.
17:15
I mean, here you have these guys
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Imali smo te momke
17:17
who basically thought they were just following this hunch,
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koji su jednostavno mislili da samo prate svoju intuiciju,
17:19
this little passion that had developed,
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tu malu strast koju su razvili,
17:21
then they thought they were fighting the Cold War,
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onda su mislili da se bore u Hladnom ratu,
17:23
and then it turns out they're just helping somebody
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a na kraju je ispalo da pomažu nekome da
17:25
find a soy latte.
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pronađe kavu sa sojinim mlijekom.
17:27
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
17:29
That is how innovation happens.
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Tako se događaju inovacije.
17:31
Chance favors the connected mind.
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Sreća je sklonija povezanim umovima.
17:33
Thank you very much.
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Puno hvala.
17:35
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Johnson - WriterSteven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience.
Why you should listen
Steven Johnson is a leading light of today's interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to innovation. His writings have influenced everything from cutting-edge ideas in urban planning to the battle against 21st-century terrorism. Johnson was chosen by Prospect magazine as one of the top ten brains of the digital future, and The Wall Street Journal calls him "one of the most persuasive advocates for the role of collaboration in innovation."
Johnson's work on the history of innovation inspired the Emmy-nominated six-part series on PBS, "How We Got To Now with Steven Johnson," which aired in the fall of 2014. The book version of How We Got To Now was a finalist for the PEN/E.O. Wilson Literary Science Writing Award. His new book, Wonderland: How Play Made the Modern World, revolves around the creative power of play and delight: ideas and innovations that set into motion many momentous changes in science, technology, politics and society.
Johnson is also the author of the bestselling Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation, one of his many books celebrating progress and innovation. Others include The Invention of Air and The Ghost Map. Everything Bad Is Good For You, one of the most discussed books of 2005, argued that the increasing complexity of modern media is training us to think in more complex ways. Emergence and Future Perfect explore the power of bottom-up intelligence in both nature and contemporary society.
An innovator himself, Johnson has co-created three influential sites: the pioneering online magazine FEED, the Webby-Award-winning community site, Plastic.com, and the hyperlocal media site outside.in, which was acquired by AOL in 2011.
Johnson is a regular contributor to WIRED magazine, as well as the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and many other periodicals. He has appeared on many high-profile television programs, including "The Charlie Rose Show," "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer."
Steven Johnson | Speaker | TED.com