TEDSalon 2006
Steven Johnson: How the "ghost map" helped end a killer disease
スティーブ・ジョンソンの感染地図
Filmed:
Readability: 3.9
845,548 views
ロンドンにおける1854年のコレラ大流行とそれが現代社会、都市、科学に与えた影響に言及する著書「感染地図」の内容を作家スティーブ・ジョンソンが紹介します。
Steven Johnson - Writer
Steven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience. Full bio
Steven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
If you haven't ordered yet, I generally find the rigatoni with the spicy tomato sauce
0
0
7000
注文がまだなら、リガトーニのスパイシートマトソースと
00:32
goes best with diseases of the small intestine.
1
7000
3000
小腸の病気は最高にあいますよ
00:35
(Laughter)
2
10000
2000
（笑）
00:37
So, sorry -- it just feels like I should be doing stand-up up here because of the setting.
3
12000
4000
失礼 舞台という設定上、芝居をすべきだと感じまして
00:41
No, what I want to do is take you back to 1854
4
16000
5000
さて 今日はこれから数分間で皆さんに
00:46
in London for the next few minutes, and tell the story --
5
21000
4000
1854年 ロンドンの話をしようと思います
00:50
in brief -- of this outbreak,
6
25000
3000
大流行した疫病にまつわる話です
00:53
which in many ways, I think, helped create the world that we live in today,
7
28000
4000
今日私達が暮らす世界に寄与する出来事で
00:57
and particularly the kind of city that we live in today.
8
32000
2000
特に今日の都市に影響を及ぼしました
00:59
This period in 1854, in the middle part of the 19th century,
9
34000
4000
19世紀の中頃、1854年という時代は
01:03
in London's history, is incredibly interesting for a number of reasons.
10
38000
4000
理由は多々あれ、ロンドン史上かなり興味深い時代でした
01:07
But I think the most important one is that
11
42000
3000
中でも 私の思う最も重要な点は
01:10
London was this city of 2.5 million people,
12
45000
3000
ロンドンは250万の市民を有す都市で
01:13
and it was the largest city on the face of the planet at that point.
13
48000
5000
当時世界中で最大の都市だったことです
01:18
But it was also the largest city that had ever been built.
14
53000
2000
しかも史上最大の都市でした
01:20
And so the Victorians were trying to live through
15
55000
3000
ビクトリア時代の人々はこの時代を生き抜き
01:23
and simultaneously invent a whole new scale of living:
16
58000
4000
同時に新たな住環境の構築を目指していました
01:27
this scale of living that we, you know, now call "metropolitan living."
17
62000
4000
今日この新たな住環境を 俗に大都市と呼んでいます
01:32
And it was in many ways, at this point in the mid-1850s, a complete disaster.
18
67000
6000
1850年当時の住環境づくりは、色々な意味で大失敗でした
01:38
They were basically a city living with a modern kind of industrial metropolis
19
73000
4000
当時の人たちはエリザベス朝の社会インフラと
01:42
with an Elizabethan public infrastructure.
20
77000
3000
今日の様な工業都市機能の下暮らしていました
01:45
So people, for instance, just to gross you out for a second,
21
80000
5000
例えば地下には皆さんの気分を少し害すような
01:50
had cesspools of human waste in their basement. Like, a foot to two feet deep.
22
85000
6000
30cmから60cm程の深さの汚水溜めがありました
01:56
And they would just kind of throw the buckets down there
23
91000
3000
人々は何となくバケツをそこでひっくり返し
01:59
and hope that it would somehow go away,
24
94000
2000
そのうち消えてなくなるだろうと思っていました
02:01
and of course it never really would go away.
25
96000
3000
勿論なくなることはありません
02:04
And all of this stuff, basically, had accumulated to the point
26
99000
3000
この様な習慣が積み重なって
02:07
where the city was incredibly offensive to just walk around in.
27
102000
4000
歩くだけで気分を害す 最悪な街になったのです
02:11
It was an amazingly smelly city. Not just because of the cesspools,
28
106000
4000
とてつもなく臭い街でした 汚水溜めだけでなく
02:15
but also the sheer number of livestock in the city would shock people.
29
110000
3000
おぞましい数の家畜もその原因の一部です
02:18
Not just the horses, but people had cows in their attics that they would use for milk,
30
113000
4000
当時は馬だけでなく乳牛も屋根裏で飼っており
02:22
that they would hoist up there and keep them in the attic
31
117000
3000
まさに牛乳がでなくなって死ぬまで
02:25
until literally their milk ran out and they died,
32
120000
2000
そこに閉じ込めておいて
02:27
and then they would drag them off to the bone boilers down the street.
33
122000
6000
死んだら焼却炉まで道を引きずって行きました
02:33
So, you would just walk around London at this point
34
128000
3000
当時のロンドンを歩こうものなら
02:36
and just be overwhelmed with this stench.
35
131000
3000
その悪臭に驚愕したことでしょう
02:39
And what ended up happening is that an entire emerging public health system
36
134000
5000
最終的には新興の公共保健当局が
02:44
became convinced that it was the smell that was killing everybody,
37
139000
4000
人々の大量死の原因と、3, 4年の周期で
02:48
that was creating these diseases
38
143000
2000
街中に蔓延する病の原因は
02:50
that would wipe through the city every three or four years.
39
145000
3000
この臭いだと確信したのです
02:53
And cholera was really the great killer of this period.
40
148000
2000
コレラは当時最大の死因でした
02:55
It arrived in London in 1832, and every four or five years
41
150000
5000
ロンドンでの1832年のコレラ波及以来
03:00
another epidemic would take 10,000, 20,000 people in London
42
155000
4000
4, 5年ごとに、ロンドンや英国全土で
03:04
and throughout the U.K.
43
159000
2000
1万から2万人規模の大流行が起こりましたから
03:06
And so the authorities became convinced that this smell was this problem.
44
161000
4000
当局は臭いこそが問題だと思い込むようになりました
03:10
We had to get rid of the smell.
45
165000
2000
悪臭を解消しなくてはいけません
03:12
And so, in fact, they concocted a couple of early, you know,
46
167000
3000
そこで実際、都市機能整備の一環として
03:15
founding public-health interventions in the system of the city,
47
170000
4000
公衆衛生策を構想しました
03:19
one of which was called the "Nuisances Act,"
48
174000
2000
その一つが迷惑防止条例で
03:21
which they got everybody as far as they could
49
176000
2000
当局は可能な限り汚水溜めを
03:23
to empty out their cesspools and just pour all that waste into the river.
50
178000
5000
空にする為、川へ流すよう促しました
03:28
Because if we get it out of the streets, it'll smell much better,
51
183000
4000
理由は汚水が路上になければ、悪臭は改善され…
03:32
and -- oh right, we drink from the river.
52
187000
4000
その通り、私達は川の水を飲みます
03:36
So what ended up happening, actually,
53
191000
2000
要するに結果としてコレラの流行を
03:38
is they ended up increasing the outbreaks of cholera
54
193000
2000
助長しただけでした、理由はご存知の通り
03:40
because, as we now know, cholera is actually in the water.
55
195000
4000
コレラ菌は水中に潜んでいるからです
03:44
It's a waterborne disease, not something that's in the air.
56
199000
3000
臭いを感じたり、呼吸時に吸入するタイプではなく
03:47
It's not something you smell or inhale; it's something you ingest.
57
202000
3000
水中に生息し、飲み水を介し進入します
03:50
And so one of the founding moments of public health in the 19th century
58
205000
4000
つまり19世紀の公衆衛生策の1つが
03:54
effectively poisoned the water supply of London much more effectively
59
209000
4000
事実上 今日の生物兵器テロよりも効果的に
03:58
than any modern day bioterrorist could have ever dreamed of doing.
60
213000
3000
ロンドンの水資源に毒を盛ったのです
04:01
So this was the state of London in 1854,
61
216000
4000
これが1854年のロンドンです
04:05
and in the middle of all this carnage and offensive conditions,
62
220000
6000
多数の人が犠牲となり苦難が続く中
04:11
and in the midst of all this scientific confusion
63
226000
3000
本当の死因が何であるか
04:14
about what was actually killing people,
64
229000
3000
科学的にも解明できていない状況でした
04:17
it was a very talented classic 19th century multi-disciplinarian named John Snow,
65
232000
6000
19世紀の高名な学際者、ジョン スノウ
04:23
who was a local doctor in Soho in London,
66
238000
3000
彼はロンドン、ソーホーの医師で
04:26
who had been arguing for about four or five years
67
241000
2000
4, 5年間の間ずっとコレラは
04:28
that cholera was, in fact, a waterborne disease,
68
243000
3000
実は水を通じ感染する、と主張したのですが
04:31
and had basically convinced nobody of this.
69
246000
3000
誰もこれを信じませんでした
04:34
The public health authorities had largely ignored what he had to say.
70
249000
4000
保健当局は往々にして彼の意見を無視しました
04:38
And he'd made the case in a number of papers and done a number of studies,
71
253000
4000
彼はこれについて多く研究を行い、論文をまとめましたが
04:42
but nothing had really stuck.
72
257000
2000
ほとんど効果は上がりませんでした
04:44
And part of -- what's so interesting about this story to me
73
259000
2000
この話で特に興味を引く点は
04:46
is that in some ways, it's a great case study in how cultural change happens,
74
261000
5000
どの様に文化的変革が起こるか示している点です
04:51
how a good idea eventually comes to win out over much worse ideas.
75
266000
5000
優れた意見が劣った意見にどう打ち勝つか示しています
04:56
And Snow labored for a long time with this great insight that everybody ignored.
76
271000
4000
スノウは皆が無視したこの優れた病識に
05:00
And then on one day, August 28th of 1854,
77
275000
5000
更に時間を注ぎました 1854年8月28日
05:05
a young child, a five-month-old girl whose first name we don't know,
78
280000
4000
名前は知られていない、姓をルイスという
05:09
we know her only as Baby Lewis, somehow contracted cholera,
79
284000
4000
生後5か月の赤子がコレラに感染しました
05:13
came down with cholera at 40 Broad Street.
80
288000
3000
ブロードストリートの40番地に住んでいた赤子です
05:16
You can't really see it in this map, but this is the map
81
291000
3000
この地図ではよく見えませんが、この地図が
05:19
that becomes the central focus in the second half of my book.
82
294000
5000
私の著書の後半部で焦点になる部分です
05:24
It's in the middle of Soho, in this working class neighborhood,
83
299000
2000
ソーホーの中心、労働者階級の街です
05:26
this little girl becomes sick and it turns out that the cesspool,
84
301000
4000
この少女が病を患ったことにより発覚したのですが
05:30
that they still continue to have, despite the Nuisances Act,
85
305000
3000
条例に反し続いていた汚水溜めが 実は
05:33
bordered on an extremely popular water pump,
86
308000
4000
頻繁に利用されるポンプに隣接していたのです
05:37
local watering hole that was well known for the best water in all of Soho,
87
312000
4000
このポンプはソーホーで一番きれいな水が出ると評判で
05:41
that all the residents from Soho and the surrounding neighborhoods would go to.
88
316000
4000
ソーホー住人に加えて近隣からも利用者が来ていました
05:45
And so this little girl inadvertently ended up
89
320000
3000
その結果この少女は意図せず
05:48
contaminating the water in this popular pump,
90
323000
2000
この給水所の水を汚染し
05:50
and one of the most terrifying outbreaks in the history of England
91
325000
6000
英国史上最も恐ろしいコレラ大流行を
05:56
erupted about two or three days later.
92
331000
2000
2, 3日の後に引き起こしました
05:58
Literally, 10 percent of the neighborhood died in seven days,
93
333000
4000
文字通り、10%の市民が7日間で命を落としました
06:02
and much more would have died if people hadn't fled
94
337000
2000
大流行勃発時に市民が逃げずにいたら
06:04
after the initial outbreak kicked in.
95
339000
3000
計り知れない数の人が死んでいたでしょう
06:07
So it was this incredibly terrifying event.
96
342000
2000
こんなにも恐ろしい出来事だったのです
06:09
You had these scenes of entire families dying
97
344000
3000
人々は48時間の内に
06:12
over the course of 48 hours of cholera,
98
347000
2000
一部屋しかない家の中で
06:14
alone in their one-room apartments, in their little flats.
99
349000
5000
家族がバタバタと死んでいく光景を目の当たりにしました
06:19
Just an extraordinary, terrifying scene.
100
354000
3000
震えあがるような恐怖体験です
06:22
Snow lived near there, heard about the outbreak,
101
357000
4000
スノウは近くに住んでおり、流行を聞きつけ
06:26
and in this amazing act of courage went directly into the belly of the beast
102
361000
3000
超越した勇気で直接魔物の腹に飛び込みました
06:29
because he thought an outbreak that concentrated
103
364000
3000
彼は局所的な流行であるという観点から
06:32
could actually potentially end up convincing people that,
104
367000
4000
コレラは空気でなく水を介し感染している
06:36
in fact, the real menace of cholera was in the water supply and not in the air.
105
371000
6000
と人々を説得できると考えたのです
06:42
He suspected an outbreak that concentrated
106
377000
2000
彼はこの流行の発端は
06:44
would probably involve a single point source.
107
379000
4000
ある1つの地点だと予想しました
06:48
One single thing that everybody was going to
108
383000
2000
つまり皆が足を運ぶような場所です
06:50
because it didn't have the traditional slower path
109
385000
3000
なぜなら皆さんの想像するような
06:53
of infections that you might expect.
110
388000
3000
低速の感染経路はなかったからです
06:56
And so he went right in there and started interviewing people.
111
391000
3000
彼は実際に足を運び人々に問いました
06:59
He eventually enlisted the help of this amazing other figure,
112
394000
4000
さらにある実力者の協力も取り付けました
07:03
who's kind of the other protagonist of the book --
113
398000
2000
彼もまたこの本の主人公です
07:05
this guy, Henry Whitehead, who was a local minister,
114
400000
3000
ヘンリー ホワイトヘッド、彼は牧師です
07:08
who was not at all a man of science, but was incredibly socially connected;
115
403000
3000
科学は全くでしたが、地域とのつながりは深く
07:11
he knew everybody in the neighborhood.
116
406000
2000
彼は地域の人ならだれでも知っており
07:13
And he managed to track down, Whitehead did,
117
408000
2000
ポンプの水を飲んだ人の状況も
07:15
many of the cases of people who had drunk water from the pump,
118
410000
3000
飲んでいない人の状況も
07:18
or who hadn't drunk water from the pump.
119
413000
2000
つかんでいました
07:20
And eventually Snow made a map of the outbreak.
120
415000
5000
遂にスノウはコレラ流行の地図を完成させて
07:25
He found increasingly that people who drank from the pump were getting sick.
121
420000
3000
ポンプの水を飲んだ人は発症し
07:28
People who hadn't drunk from the pump were not getting sick.
122
423000
3000
飲んでいない人は発症しないことが分かってきました
07:31
And he thought about representing that
123
426000
2000
色々な地域の
07:33
as a kind of a table of statistics of people living in different neighborhoods,
124
428000
3000
水を飲んでいない人の割合を
07:36
people who hadn't, you know, percentages of people who hadn't,
125
431000
2000
表で示そうかと考えましたが
07:38
but eventually he hit upon the idea
126
433000
2000
視覚的に把握できるものが必要と
07:40
that what he needed was something that you could see.
127
435000
2000
考え至りました
07:42
Something that would take in a sense a higher-level view
128
437000
2000
この地域で起きていることが
07:44
of all this activity that had been happening in the neighborhood.
129
439000
3000
視覚的にはっきりと把握できるものです
07:47
And so he created this map,
130
442000
3000
そこで彼はこの地図を作成し
07:50
which basically ended up representing all the deaths in the neighborhoods
131
445000
4000
この地域で死亡した人を全て
07:54
as black bars at each address.
132
449000
3000
住所ごとに黒い印で示しました
07:57
And you can see in this map, the pump right at the center of it
133
452000
3000
ご覧の通り、中心にはポンプがあり
08:00
and you can see that one of the residences down the way
134
455000
2000
その下の区域で15人が亡くなったことが
08:02
had about 15 people dead.
135
457000
2000
この地図から確認できます
08:04
And the map is actually a little bit bigger.
136
459000
2000
実際の地図はもう少し大きめですけどね
08:06
As you get further and further away from the pump,
137
461000
2000
ポンプから離れれば離れるほど
08:08
the deaths begin to grow less and less frequent.
138
463000
3000
死者数の数は減少傾向にあります
08:11
And so you can see this something poisonous
139
466000
3000
一目でこのポンプから何か迫りくる
08:14
emanating out of this pump that you could see in a glance.
140
469000
4000
有毒なものを感じることができます
08:18
And so, with the help of this map,
141
473000
2000
この地図を製作したり
08:20
and with the help of more evangelizing
142
475000
2000
続く2, 3年程
08:22
that he did over the next few years
143
477000
2000
スノウとホワイトヘッドが
08:24
and that Whitehead did, eventually, actually,
144
479000
2000
この考えの普及に努めた結果
08:26
the authorities slowly started to come around.
145
481000
2000
事実 後に当局が少しずつ動き出します
08:28
It took much longer than sometimes we like to think in this story,
146
483000
3000
我々の推測よりだいぶ長くかかりましたが
08:31
but by 1866, when the next big cholera outbreak came to London,
147
486000
5000
次にロンドンでコレラが大流行する1866年までには
08:36
the authorities had been convinced -- in part because of this story,
148
491000
4000
保健当局はこの話や、この地図のおかげもあって
08:40
in part because of this map -- that in fact the water was the problem.
149
495000
4000
実は水に原因があると信じるに至ったのです
08:44
And they had already started building the sewers in London,
150
499000
2000
ロンドンでは下水設備が作られ始め
08:46
and they immediately went to this outbreak
151
501000
2000
第二次コレラ大流行にすぐに対応し
08:48
and they told everybody to start boiling their water.
152
503000
2000
水を熱消毒するよう人々に命じました
08:50
And that was the last time that London has seen a cholera outbreak since.
153
505000
5000
これがロンドン史上最後のコレラ大流行になりました
08:55
So, part of this story, I think -- well, it's a terrifying story,
154
510000
3000
この話はとても恐ろしい面を含んでいます
08:58
it's a very dark story and it's a story
155
513000
2000
とても暗い話ですし、発展途上にある
09:00
that continues on in many of the developing cities of the world.
156
515000
4000
世界中の多くの都市で今なお続く問題でもあります
09:04
It's also a story really that is fundamentally optimistic,
157
519000
3000
しかし本質を見れば実は楽観できる話でもあります
09:07
which is to say that it's possible to solve these problems
158
522000
3000
つまり原因を知り
09:10
if we listen to reason, if we listen to the kind of wisdom of these kinds of maps,
159
525000
4000
地図から情報を読み取り
09:14
if we listen to people like Snow and Whitehead,
160
529000
2000
スノウやホワイトヘッドの話を受け入れ
09:16
if we listen to the locals who understand
161
531000
2000
状況を知る地元住民の話を聞けば
09:18
what's going on in these kinds of situations.
162
533000
3000
解決できる問題だということです
09:21
And what it ended up doing is making the idea
163
536000
3000
こういったことから最終的に
09:24
of large-scale metropolitan living a sustainable one.
164
539000
4000
大規模な都市生活が可能と考えられるようになりました
09:28
When people were looking at 10 percent of their neighborhoods dying
165
543000
3000
7日で10%の隣人が死んでいく光景を見たときには
09:31
in the space of seven days,
166
546000
2000
250万人が大都市に暮らすなんて
09:33
there was a widespread consensus that this couldn't go on,
167
548000
3000
不可能だという共通認識が
09:36
that people weren't meant to live in cities of 2.5 million people.
168
551000
4000
広まっていましたが
09:40
But because of what Snow did, because of this map,
169
555000
2000
しかしスノウの行い、この地図
09:42
because of the whole series of reforms
170
557000
2000
そしてこの地図のおかげで実現した
09:44
that happened in the wake of this map,
171
559000
2000
一連の改革の成果によって
09:46
we now take for granted that cities have 10 million people,
172
561000
4000
人口1000万を有す都市が 今では当たり前になっています
09:50
cities like this one are in fact sustainable things.
173
565000
2000
この様な大規模な都市も存在可能なのです
09:52
We don't worry that New York City is going to collapse in on itself
174
567000
3000
今日、誰もニューヨークがローマみたいに
09:55
quite the way that, you know, Rome did,
175
570000
2000
滅亡するとも、100年後や200年後に
09:57
and be 10 percent of its size in 100 years or 200 years.
176
572000
3000
10%の規模に縮小するとも思っていません
10:00
And so that in a way is the ultimate legacy of this map.
177
575000
3000
これがある意味この地図から得た遺産なのです
10:03
It's a map of deaths that ended up creating a whole new way of life,
178
578000
5000
今私たちが全く新しい生活を満喫できるのは 死者を示した
10:08
the life that we're enjoying here today. Thank you very much.
179
583000
3000
地図のおかげなのです ご清聴ありがとうございました
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Johnson - WriterSteven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience.
Why you should listen
Steven Johnson is a leading light of today's interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to innovation. His writings have influenced everything from cutting-edge ideas in urban planning to the battle against 21st-century terrorism. Johnson was chosen by Prospect magazine as one of the top ten brains of the digital future, and The Wall Street Journal calls him "one of the most persuasive advocates for the role of collaboration in innovation."
Johnson's work on the history of innovation inspired the Emmy-nominated six-part series on PBS, "How We Got To Now with Steven Johnson," which aired in the fall of 2014. The book version of How We Got To Now was a finalist for the PEN/E.O. Wilson Literary Science Writing Award. His new book, Wonderland: How Play Made the Modern World, revolves around the creative power of play and delight: ideas and innovations that set into motion many momentous changes in science, technology, politics and society.
Johnson is also the author of the bestselling Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation, one of his many books celebrating progress and innovation. Others include The Invention of Air and The Ghost Map. Everything Bad Is Good For You, one of the most discussed books of 2005, argued that the increasing complexity of modern media is training us to think in more complex ways. Emergence and Future Perfect explore the power of bottom-up intelligence in both nature and contemporary society.
An innovator himself, Johnson has co-created three influential sites: the pioneering online magazine FEED, the Webby-Award-winning community site, Plastic.com, and the hyperlocal media site outside.in, which was acquired by AOL in 2011.
Johnson is a regular contributor to WIRED magazine, as well as the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and many other periodicals. He has appeared on many high-profile television programs, including "The Charlie Rose Show," "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer."
Steven Johnson | Speaker | TED.com