TEDIndia 2009
Hans Rosling: Asia's rise -- how and when
Hans Rosling: Vzostup Ázie -- ako a kedy
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Hans Rosling bol mladým hosťujúcim študentom v Indii, keď si prvýkrát uvedomil, že Ázia má všetky predpoklady, aby opätovne zaujala svoje miesto ako dominantná ekonomická veľmoc. Na TEDIndia znázorňuje globálny ekonomický rast od roku 1858 a predpovedá presný dátum, kedy India a Čína predbehnú USA.
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:17
Once upon a time,
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Raz dávno,
00:19
at the age of 24,
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keď som mal 24,
00:21
I was a student at St. John's Medical College in Bangalore.
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som bol študentom St. John's Medical College v Bangalóre.
00:26
I was a guest student during one month
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Bol som hosťujúcim študentom na jeden mesiac
00:29
of a public health course.
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na kurze verejného zdravia.
00:31
And that changed my mindset forever.
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A to navždy zmenilo moju pohľad na svet.
00:34
The course was good, but it was not the course content
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Kurz bol dobrý, ale nebol to jeho obsah,
00:37
in itself that changed the mindset.
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čo zmenilo moje zmýšľanie.
00:39
It was the brutal realization,
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Bolo to brutálne uvedomenie si
00:41
the first morning,
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hneď prvé ráno,
00:43
that the Indian students were better than me.
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že indickí študenti boli lepší ako ja.
00:46
(Laughter)
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(Smiech)
00:47
You see, I was a study nerd.
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Viete, ja som bol bifľoš.
00:49
I loved statistics from a young age.
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Miloval som štatistiku od malička.
00:51
And I studied very much in Sweden.
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A vo Švédsku som študoval usilovne.
00:53
I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended.
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Zvykol som bývať v hornej štvrtine študentov na všetkých kurzoch, ktoré som navštevoval.
00:57
But in St. John's, I was in the lower quarter.
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Ale v St. John's som bol v dolnej štvrtine.
01:01
And the fact was that Indian students
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A faktom bolo, že tí indickí študenti
01:03
studied harder than we did in Sweden.
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študovali usilovnejšie ako my vo Švédsku.
01:06
They read the textbook twice,
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Oni si prečítali učebnicu dvakrát,
01:08
or three times or four times.
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alebo trikrát alebo štyrikrát.
01:10
In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying.
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Vo Švédsku sme ju prečítali raz a šli sme žúrovať.
01:13
(Laugher)
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(Smiech)
01:15
And that, to me,
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A vtedy,
01:18
that personal experience
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pri tejto osobnej skúsenosti,
01:20
was the first time in my life
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som si prvýkrát v živote uvedomil,
01:23
that the mindset I grew up with
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že predstava o svete, s ktorou som vyrástol,
01:25
was changed.
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sa zmenila.
01:28
And I realized that perhaps
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A napadlo mi, že
01:30
the Western world will not continue
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západný svet možno nebude
01:32
to dominate the world forever.
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na čele sveta navždy.
01:35
And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience.
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A myslím si, že mnohí z vás majú podobnú osobnú skúsenosť.
01:39
It's that realization of someone you meet
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Chcete pochopiť niekoho, koho ste stretli,
01:42
that really made you change your ideas about the world.
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a prinúti vás to zmeniť vaše zmýšľanie o svete.
01:44
It's not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny.
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Nie je to štatistika, hoci sa snažím urobiť ju zábavnou.
01:48
And I will now,
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A teraz sa
01:52
here, onstage,
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tu, na javisku
01:54
try to predict when that will happen --
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pokúsim predpovedať, kedy sa to stane --
01:57
that Asia will regain
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kedy Ázia opäť získa
02:02
its dominant position
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svoju dominantnú pozíciu
02:04
as the leading part of the world,
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vo vedení sveta,
02:06
as it used to be, over thousands of years.
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tak ako to bolo kedysi, pred tisíckami rokov.
02:10
And I will do that
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A urobím to tak,
02:12
by trying to predict precisely
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že sa pokúsim presne predpovedať
02:15
at what year
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v ktorom roku sa
02:17
the average income per person
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priemerný príjem na osobu
02:19
in India, in China, will reach that of the West.
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v Indii, v Číne vyrovná tomu západnému.
02:22
And I don't mean the whole economy,
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Ale nemám na mysli celé hospodárstvo,
02:24
because to grow an economy
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pretože dostať hospodárstvo
02:26
of India to the size of U.K. --
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Indie na úroveň Veľkej Británie --
02:28
that's a piece of cake, with one billion people.
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to je hračka, keď máte miliardu ľudí.
02:31
But I want to see when will the average pay, the money
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Ale ja chcem vidieť, kedy priemerný plat, peniaze
02:35
for each person, per month,
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pre každého človeka za mesiac
02:37
in India and China,
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v Indii a Číne,
02:39
when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States?
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kedy tento plat dosiahne úroveň Veľkej Británie alebo Spojených štátov?
02:43
But I will start with a historical background.
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Ale začnem históriou.
02:46
And you can see my map if I get it up here. You know?
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Môžete vidieť moju mapu, ak to dostanem sem.
02:49
I will start at 1858.
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Začal by som v roku 1858.
02:52
1858 was a year of great technological
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1858 bol rokom veľkého technologického
02:56
advancement in the West.
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pokroku na západe.
02:58
That was the year when Queen Victoria
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Bol to rok, keď kráľovná Viktória
03:01
was able, for the first time, to communicate
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mohla po prvýkrát komunikovať
03:03
with President Buchanan,
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s prezidentom Buchananom
03:05
through the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable.
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cez transatlantický telegrafný kábel.
03:08
And they were the first to "Twitter" transatlantically.
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Oni boli prvými transatlantickými "twittujúcimi".
03:11
(Laughter)
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(Smiech)
03:12
(Applause)
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(Potlesk)
03:16
And I've been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet,
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A pomocou úžasného Googlu a internetu som bol schopný
03:19
to find the text of the telegram
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nájsť text toho telegramu,
03:21
sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria.
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ktorý prezident Buchanan poslal späť kráľovnej Viktórii.
03:25
And it ends like this: "This telegraph
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A končí asi takto: "Tento telegraf
03:28
is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion,
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je fantastický prostriedok ako rozšíriť náboženstvo,
03:30
civilization, liberty and law throughout the world."
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civilizáciu, slobodu a právo po celom svete."
03:34
Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious
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Sú to pekné slová, ale mňa zaujímalo,
03:37
of what he meant with liberty, and liberty for whom.
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čo myslel tou slobodou. Slobodu pre koho.
03:41
And we will think about that
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A porozmýšľame o tom,
03:43
when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858.
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keď sa pozrieme na širší obraz sveta v roku 1858.
03:47
Because 1858
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Pretože 1858
03:49
was also watershed year
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bol tiež zlomovým rokom
03:52
in the history of Asia.
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v histórii Ázie.
03:54
1858 was the year
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1858 bol rokom,
03:56
when the courageous uprising
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kedy britské jednotky potlačili
03:58
against the foreign occupation of India
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odvážne povstanie
04:01
was defeated by the British forces.
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proti okupácii Indie.
04:03
And India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination.
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A India sa mohla pripraviť na ďalších 89 rokov cudzej nadvlády.
04:08
1858 in China
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V roku 1858 v Číne
04:10
was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces.
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vyhrali britské jednotky Ópiovú vojnu.
04:14
And that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty,
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To znamenalo, že cudzinci, tak ako bolo uvedené v dohode,
04:17
were allowed to trade freely in China.
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mohli v Číne voľne obchodovať.
04:19
It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods.
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Znamenalo to, že za čínsky tovar platili ópiom.
04:23
And 1858 in Japan
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V roku 1858
04:25
was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty
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muselo Japonsko podpísať Harrisovu dohodu
04:28
and accept trade on favorable condition for the U.S.
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a akceptovať obchod v prospech USA.
04:32
And they were threatened by those black ships there,
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A to pod hrozbou tých čiernych lodí
04:36
that had been in Tokyo harbor over the last year.
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ktoré kotvili v tokijskom prístave už vyše roka.
04:38
But, Japan, in contrast to India and China,
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Ale Japonsko si, na rozdiel od Indie a Číny,
04:42
maintained its national sovereignty.
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udržalo svoju národnú suverenitu.
04:45
And let's see how much difference that can make.
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A pozrime sa, aký rozdiel to môže znamenať.
04:48
And I will do that by bringing these bubbles
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Urobím to tak, že vrátim tieto bubliny
04:51
back to a Gapminder graph here,
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späť do grafu v Gapminderi,
04:53
where you can see each bubble is a country.
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kde môžete vidieť každú krajinu ako bublinu.
04:56
The size of the bubble here is the population.
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Veľkosť bubliny je veľkosť populácie.
04:59
On this axis, as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar.
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Na tejto osi, mám, ako zvyčajne, príjem na osobu v porovnateľných dolároch.
05:04
And on that axis I have life expectancy, the health of people.
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A na tejto osi mám dĺžku života, zdravie ľudí.
05:08
And I also bring an innovation here.
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A ešte sem pridám trošku inovácie.
05:10
I have transformed the laser beam
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Zmenil som laserové ukazovadlo
05:13
into an ecological, recyclable version here, in green India.
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na ekologickú, recyklovateľnú verziu tu v zelenej Indii.
05:18
(Applause)
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(Potlesk)
05:22
And we will see, you know.
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Tak uvidíme.
05:25
Look here, 1858, India was here,
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Pozrite sa sem, 1858. India bola tu.
05:28
China was here, Japan was there,
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Čína bola tu, Japonsko tam.
05:30
United States and United Kingdom
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Spojené štáty a Veľká Británia
05:32
was richer over there.
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boli bohatšie, a niekde tu.
05:34
And I will start the world like this.
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A spustím svet.
05:37
India was not always like this level.
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India ale nebola vždy na takejto úrovni.
05:39
Actually if we go back into the historical record,
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Keď sa pozrieme do historických záznamov,
05:41
there was a time hundreds of years ago
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bolo obdobie pred niekoľkými stovkami rokov,
05:43
when the income per person in India and China
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kedy príjem na osobu v Indii a Číne
05:45
was even above that of Europe.
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bol dokonca vyšší ako v Európe.
05:47
But 1850 had already been many, many years of foreign domination,
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Ale v roku 1850 bola už mnoho rokov pod cudzou nadvládou
05:51
and India had been de-industrialized.
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a India bola deindustralizovaná.
05:54
And you can see that the countries who were growing
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A môžete vidieť, že krajiny, ktorých ekonomika rástla,
05:56
their economy was United States and United Kingdom.
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boli USA a Spojené Kráľovstvo.
05:58
And they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthy,
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A koncom storočia boli tieto krajiny zdravšie
06:01
and Japan was starting to catch up.
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a Japonsko začalo dobiehať.
06:03
India was trying down here.
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India sa snažila tu dole.
06:05
Can you see how it starts to move there?
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Vidíte, ako sa začala hýbať tamtým smerom?
06:07
But really, really natural sovereignty was good for Japan.
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A suverenita bola pre Japonsko naozaj, naozaj dobrá.
06:11
And Japan is trying to move up there.
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A Japonsko sa snaží dostať hore.
06:13
And it's the new century now. Health is getting better,
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A máme tu nové storočie. Zdravie sa zlepšuje,
06:15
United Kingdom, United States.
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Spojené Kráľovstvo a Spojené Štáty.
06:17
But careful now -- we are approaching the First World War.
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Ale teraz pozor - blížime sa k prvej svetovej vojne.
06:20
And the First World War, you know,
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Ako viete, prvá svetová vojna,
06:22
we'll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here.
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znamenala veľa úmrtí a ekonomických problémov.
06:26
United Kingdom is going down.
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Spojené Kráľovstvo ide dolu.
06:28
And now comes the Spanish flu also.
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A teraz tiež prichádza španielska chrípka.
06:30
And then after the First World War, they continue up.
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A potom po prvej svetovej vojne, pokračujú smerom hore.
06:33
Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty,
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Stále pod cudzou nadvládou a bez suverenity,
06:36
India and China are down in the corner.
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India a Čína sú dole v rohu.
06:38
Not much has happened.
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Nič moc sa nestalo.
06:40
They have grown their population but not much more.
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Zvýšil sa počet obyvateľstva, ale nie oveľa.
06:42
In the 1930's now, you can see
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V tridsiatych rokoch môžete vidieť, že
06:44
that Japan is going to a period of war,
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Japonsko vstupuje do obdobia vojny,
06:47
with lower life expectancy.
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s nižšou dĺžkou života.
06:49
And the Second World War was really a terrible event,
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Druhá svetová vojna bola hroznou udalosťou,
06:51
also economically for Japan.
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tiež pre japonské hospodárstvo.
06:53
But they did recover quite fast afterwards.
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Ale zotavili sa z toho celkom rýchlo.
06:55
And we are moving into the new world.
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A prechádzame do nového sveta.
06:57
In 1947 India finally
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V roku 1947 India konečne
07:00
gained its independence.
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získala nezávislosť.
07:02
And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation,
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Konečne mohli vztýčiť indickú vlajku a stať sa suverénnym národom,
07:06
but in very big difficulties down there.
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ale v čase veľkých ťažkostí.
07:09
(Applause)
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(Potlesk)
07:12
In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China
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V roku 1949 sme svedkami vzniku modernej Číny
07:16
in a way which surprised the world.
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spôsobom, ktorý prekvapil svet.
07:18
And what happened?
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A čo sa stalo?
07:20
What happens in the after independence?
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Čo sa stalo po získaní nezávislosti?
07:22
You can see that the health started to improve.
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Môžete vidieť, že sa začalo zlepšovať zdravie.
07:24
Children started to go to school.
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Deti začali chodiť do školy.
07:26
Health services were provided.
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Poskytovala sa zdravotná starostlivosť.
07:28
This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down.
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Toto je Veľký skok vpred, kedy sa Čína prepadla.
07:32
It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung.
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To bolo centrálne plánovanie Mao Tse Tunga.
07:34
China recovered. Then they said,
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Čína sa z toho dostala. Povedali si,
07:36
"Nevermore, stupid central planning."
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"Nikdy viac, sprosté centrálne plánovanie."
07:38
But they went up here, and India was trying to follow.
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Ale potom vystúpili hore a India sa snažila nasledovať.
07:41
And they were catching up indeed.
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A naozaj ich dobiehali.
07:43
And both countries had the better health, but still
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A obe krajiny mali lepšie zdravie, ale stále
07:45
a very low economy.
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veľmi nízku ekonomiku.
07:47
And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died,
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A prišli sme k roku 1978, Mao Tse Tung zomrel
07:50
and a new guy turned up from the left.
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a naľavo sa ukázal nový chlapík.
07:53
And it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here.
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Vyšiel odtiaľ Deng Xiaoping.
07:56
And he said, "Doesn't matter
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A povedal, "Nezáleží na tom,
07:58
if a cat is white or black,
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či je mačka biela alebo čierna,
08:00
as long as it catches mice."
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hlavne nech vie chytať myši."
08:02
Because catching mice
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Pretože chytiť myši
08:04
is what the two cats wanted to do.
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je to, čo dve mačky chcú.
08:07
And you can see the two cats being here,
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A môžete vidieť dve mačky,
08:10
China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know.
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Čínu a Indiu, ako naháňajú tamtie myši.
08:13
And they decided to go not only for health and education,
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A rozhodli sa klásť dôraz nielen na zdravie a vzdelávanie
08:16
but also starting to grow their economy.
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ale tiež začali budovať svoju ekonomiku.
08:18
And the market reformer was successful there.
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A reforma trhu tam bola úspešná.
08:20
In '92 India follows with a market reform.
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V roku 1992 nasledovala s reformou trhu i India.
08:23
And they go quite closely together,
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A priblížili sa k sebe
08:25
and you can see that the similarity with India and China,
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a môžete vidieť, že podobnosť medzi Indiou a Čínou,
08:27
in many ways, are greater than the differences with them.
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je v mnohých veciach väčšia ako rozdiely.
08:30
And here they march on. And will they catch up?
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A tak tu postupujú ďalej. A doženú západ?
08:32
This is the big question today.
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To je dnes dôležitá otázka.
08:34
There they are today.
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Tam sú dnes.
08:36
Now what does it mean that the --
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Takže, čo to znamená, že --
08:38
(Applause)
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(Potlesk)
08:41
the averages there -- this is the average of China.
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priemery -- toto je priemer Číny.
08:44
If I would split China, look here,
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Ak by som rozdelil Čínu, pozrite sa,
08:46
Shanghai has already catched up.
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Šanghaj nás už dobehol.
08:49
Shanghai is already there.
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Šanghaj je už tam.
08:51
And it's healthier than the United States.
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A je zdravší ako Spojené štáty.
08:55
But on the other hand, Guizhou, one of the poorest
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Ale na druhej strane, Guizhou, jedna z najchudobneších
08:58
inland provinces of China, is there.
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vnútrozemských provincií Číny, je tam.
09:01
And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural,
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A ak rozdelím Guizhou na mestskú a vidiecku časť,
09:05
the rural part of Guizhou goes down there.
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dedinská časť ide až tam dole.
09:08
You see this enormous inequity in China,
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Vidíte túto obrovskú nerovnosť v Číne,
09:11
in the midst of fast economic growth.
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uprostred rýchleho ekonomického rastu.
09:13
And if I would also look at India,
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A ak by som sa pozriel aj na Indiu,
09:15
you have another type of inequity, actually, in India.
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v Indii máme ďalší typ nerovnosti.
09:18
The geographical, macro-geographical difference is not so big.
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Geografické, makrogeografické rozdiely nie sú také veľké.
09:23
Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of the states here,
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Uttar Pradesh, najväčší zo štátov,
09:25
is poorer and has a lower health than the rest of India.
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je chudobnejší a má horšie zdravie ako zvyšok Indie
09:28
Kerala is flying on top there,
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Kerala lieta tu na vrchu,
09:31
matching United States in health,
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dobieha Spojené štáty v zdraví,
09:33
but not in economy.
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ale nie v ekonomike.
09:35
And here, Maharashtra, with Mumbai,
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A tu, Maharashtra, s Mumbajom.
09:37
is forging forward.
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sa posúva dopredu.
09:39
Now in India, the big inequities are within the state,
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V Indii sú veľké nerovnosti v rámci štátu,
09:42
rather than between the states.
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väčšie ako medzi štátmi.
09:44
And that is not a bad thing, in itself.
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A to nie je až také zlé.
09:47
If you have a lot inequity, macro-geographical inequities
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Ak máte veľké rozdiely, makrogeorafické rozdiely,
09:51
can be more difficult in the long term to deal with,
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dlhodobo je zložitejšie ich riešiť
09:54
than if it is in the same area where you have a growth center
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ako keď máte v rovnakej oblasti centrum rastu
09:57
relatively close to where poor people are living.
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celkom blízko pri chudobných ľuďoch.
10:00
No, there is one more inequity. Look there, United States.
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A je tu ešte jeden druh nerovnosti. Pozrite sa na Spojené štáty.
10:03
(Laughter)
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(Smiech)
10:04
Oh, they broke my frame.
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Och, oni mi narušili schému.
10:06
Washington, D.C. went out here.
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Washington, D.C. vyšiel tu hore.
10:09
My friends at Gapminder wanted me to show this
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Moji priatelia z Gapminderu chceli, aby som to ukázal,
10:12
because there is a new leader in Washington
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pretože nový líder vo Washingtone
10:14
who is really concerned about the health system.
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sa naozaj zaujíma o zdravotníctvo.
10:16
And I can understand him, because Washington, D.C.
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A viem ho pochopiť, pretože Washington, D.C.
10:19
is so rich over there
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je tak bohatý,
10:22
but they are not as healthy as Kerala.
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ale nie je ani taký zdravý ako Kerala.
10:24
It's quite interesting, isn't it?
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To je celkom zaujímavé, nie?
10:26
(Applause)
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(Potlesk)
10:31
I can see a business opportunity for Kerala,
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Vidím veľkú obchodnú príležitosť pre Keralu,
10:34
helping fix the health system in the United States.
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pomôcť napraviť zdravotníctvo v Spojených štátoch.
10:36
(Laughter)
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(Smiech)
10:38
(Applause)
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(Potlesk)
10:40
Now here we have the whole world. You have the legend down there.
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Teraz tu máme celý svet. Dole máte legendu.
10:43
And when you see the two giant cats here, pushing forward,
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A keď vidíte tieto dve veľké mačky, ako sa tlačia dopredu,
10:47
you see that in between them
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je vidieť, že medzi nimi
10:49
and ahead of them,
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a pred nimi
10:51
is the whole emerging economies of the world,
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je celý rad nastupujúcich ekonomík sveta,
10:53
which Thomas Friedman so correctly called the "flat world."
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ktoré Thomas Friedman nazval tak správne "plochý svet".
10:57
You can see that in health and education,
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Môžete vidieť, že v zdravotníctve a vo vzdelávaní
10:59
a large part of the world population is putting forward,
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sa veľká časť sveta dostáva dopredu,
11:02
but in Africa, and other parts,
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ale v Afrike, a v iných častiach,
11:04
as in rural Guizhou in China,
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napríklad na vidieku v Guizhou v Číne,
11:06
there is still people with low health and very low economy.
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sú stále ľudia so slabým zdravotníctvom a nízkou ekonomikou.
11:09
We have an enormous disparity in the world.
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Máme vo svete obrovskú rozdielnosť.
11:11
But most of the world in the middle are pushing forwards very fast.
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Ale väčšina sveta uprostred sa tlačí dopredu veľmi rýchlo.
11:16
Now, back to my projections.
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Teraz, naspäť k mojim predpovediam.
11:18
When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph.
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Kedy nás dobehnú? Musím sa vrátiť k tradičnému grafu.
11:23
I will show income per person on this axis instead,
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Na tejto osi ukážem príjem na osobu
11:26
poor down here, rich up there.
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chudobní tu dole, bohatí tam hore.
11:28
And then time here, from 1858
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A tu dám čas, od roku 1858,
11:30
I start the world.
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a spustím svet.
11:32
And we shall see what will happen with these countries.
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Mali by sme vidieť, čo sa stane s týmito krajinami.
11:35
You see, China under foreign domination
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Vidíte, Čína pod cudzou nadvládou
11:38
actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here.
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ešte znížila svoje príjmy a zišla až na úroveň Indie.
11:41
Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer.
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Zatiaľčo Veľká Británia a Spojené štáty sú čoraz bohatšie.
11:45
And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K.
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A po druhej svetovej vojne sú Spojené štáty bohatšie ako Veľká Británia.
11:48
But independence is coming here.
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Ale prichádza osamostatnenie.
11:50
Growth is starting, economic reform.
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Začína rast, ekonomické reformy.
11:52
Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF
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Rast je rýchlejší a podľa predpovedí z IMF (Medzinárodný menový fond)
11:55
you can see where you expect them to be in 2014.
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môžete vidieť, kde budú v roku 2014.
11:59
Now, the question is, "When will the catch up take place?"
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Teraz, otázkou zostáva "Kedy ich dobehnú?"
12:04
Look at, look at the United States.
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Pozrite sa, pozrite na Spojené štáty.
12:06
Can you see the bubble?
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Vidíte bublinu?
12:08
The bubbles, not my bubbles,
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Bubliny, nie moje bubliny,
12:10
but the financial bubbles.
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ale finančné bubliny.
12:12
That's the dot com bubble. This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there.
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Toto je internetová bublina. Toto je pád Lehman Brothers (banka).
12:17
You see it came down there.
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Vidíte, že to kleslo.
12:19
And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know.
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Zdá sa, že toto je ďalšia skala padajúca nadol.
12:24
So they doesn't seem to go this way, these countries.
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Takže zrejme nebudú pokračovať touto cestou.
12:27
They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know.
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Vyzerá, že postupujú cestou skromnejšieho rastu.
12:30
And people interested in growth
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A ľudia, ktorých zaujíma rast,
12:32
are turning their eyes towards Asia.
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obracajú svoj zrak na Áziu.
12:35
I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up.
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Môžem to porovnať s Japonskom. Tu ide Japonsko nahor.
12:38
You see, Japan did it like that.
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Vidíte, Japonsko to urobilo takto.
12:40
We add Japan to it.
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Pridali sme tam Japonsko.
12:42
And there is no doubt that fast catch up
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A niet pochýb, že sa nás môžu
12:45
can take place.
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rýchlo dobehnúť.
12:47
Can you see here what Japan did?
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Vidíte, čo urobilo Japonsko.
12:49
Japan did it like this, until full catch up,
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Japonsko to urobilo takto, kým nás dobehli,
12:51
and then they follow with the other high-income economies.
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a potom pokračovali s ďalšími ekonomikami s vysokými príjmami.
12:55
But the real projections for those ones,
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Ale reálne predpovede pre tieto,
12:58
I would like to give it like this.
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dal by som to takto.
13:03
Can be worse, can be better.
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Môže to byť horšie, môže to byť lepšie.
13:05
It's always difficult to predict, especially about the future.
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Vždy je ťažké predpovedať niečo, hlavne čo sa týka budúcnosti.
13:09
Now, a historian tells me it's even more difficult to predict about the past.
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Jeden historik mi povedal, že je omnoho ťažšie predpovedať pre minulosť.
13:12
(Laughter)
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(Smiech)
13:14
I think I'm in a difficult position here.
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Myslím, že som tu v neľahkej pozícii.
13:17
Inequalities in China and India
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Nerovnosti v Číne a v Indii
13:19
I consider really the big obstacle
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považujem za naozaj veľkú prekážku,
13:23
because to bring the entire population into growth and prosperity
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pretože priniesť celej populácii rast a prosperitu
13:27
is what will create a domestic market,
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je to, čo vytvorí domáci trh,
13:29
what will avoid social instability,
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čo odvráti sociálnu nestabilitu
13:32
and which will make use of the entire capacity
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a čo využije celú kapacitu
13:35
of the population.
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populácie.
13:37
So, social investments in health, education and infrastructure,
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Takže, spoločenské investície do zdravia, vzdelania, infraštruktúry
13:41
and electricity is really what is needed in India and China.
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a elektriny sú to, čo India a Čína potrebujú.
13:47
You know the climate. We have great international experts
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Viete o klíme. Máme skvelých medzinárodných expertov
13:50
within India telling us that the climate is changing,
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v Indii, ktorí nám hovoria o tom, že podnebie sa mení
13:53
and actions has to be taken,
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a musia sa podniknúť kroky,
13:55
otherwise China and India would be the countries
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inak budú práve Čína a India
13:58
most to suffer from climate change.
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najviac trpieť z klimatických zmien.
14:00
And I consider India and China the best partners in the world
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A považujem Indiu a Čínu za najlepších partnerov vo svete
14:03
in a good global climate policy.
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v dobrej globálnej politike životného prostredia.
14:06
But they ain't going to pay
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Ale oni nebudú platiť
14:08
for what others, who have more money,
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za niečo, čo iní, ktorí majú viac peňazí,
14:10
have largely created, and I can agree on that.
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spôsobili, a s tým súhlasím.
14:13
But what I'm really worried about is war.
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Ale najviac sa obávam vojny.
14:16
Will the former rich countries really accept
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Naozaj sa bývalé bohaté krajiny zmieria
14:18
a completely changed world economy,
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s úplne zmenenou svetovou ekonomikou,
14:21
and a shift of power away from where it has been
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a s presunom moci, ktorú mali
14:24
the last 50 to 100 to 150 years,
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50, 100, 150 rokov
14:26
back to Asia?
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naspäť do Ázie?
14:28
And will Asia be able to handle that
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A bude Ázia schopná vysporiadať sa
14:30
new position of being in charge
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s novou pozíciou
14:32
of being the most mighty, and the governors of the world?
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zodpovednej, najmocnejšej krajiny, s pozíciou vládcu sveta?
14:35
So, always avoid war,
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Takže, vždy sa vyhýbajte vojne,
14:37
because that always pushes human beings backward.
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pretože tá vždy ťahá ľudstvo dozadu.
14:40
Now if these inequalities, climate and war can be avoided,
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A ak sa bude dať vyhnúť nerovnostiam, zmene podnebia a vojne,
14:44
get ready for a world in equity,
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pripravte sa na svet rovnosti.
14:47
because this is what seems to be happening.
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Pretože toto sa deje.
14:50
And that vision that I got as a young student,
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A tá vízia, ktorú som mal ako mladý študent,
14:52
1972, that Indians can be much better than Swedes,
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v roku 1972, že Indovia môžu byť omnoho lepší ako Švédi
14:58
is just about to happen.
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sa čoskoro stane skutočnosťou.
15:00
And it will happen precisely
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A stane sa to presne
15:03
the year 2048
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v roku 2048
15:07
in the later part of the summer, in July,
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v lete, v júli,
15:10
more precisely, the 27th of July.
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presnejšie 27. júla.
15:13
(Applause)
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(Potlesk)
15:21
The 27th of July, 2048
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27. júla 2048
15:25
is my 100th birthday.
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je deň mojich stých narodenín.
15:27
(Laughter)
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(Smiech)
15:29
And I expect to speak
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A predpokladám, že budem mať prednášku
15:31
in the first session of the 39th TED India.
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v prvej časti 39. TED India.
15:35
Get your bookings in time. Thank you very much.
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Zarezervujte si včas svoje miesta. Ďakujem veľmi pekne.
15:38
(Applause)
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(Potlesk)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com