TEDIndia 2009
Hans Rosling: Asia's rise -- how and when
Hans Rozling: Uspon Azije - kako i kada
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Hans Rozling je bio mladi, gostujući student u Indiji kada je po prvi put shvatio da Azija ima potencijal da ponovo zauzme mesto dominantne svetske ekonomske sile. Na konfereciji "TEDIndia" je predstavio grafike razvoja globalne ekonomije počevši od 1858. i dao predviđanje tačnog datuma kada će Indija i Kina nadmašiti SAD.
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:17
Once upon a time,
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Jednom davno,
00:19
at the age of 24,
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kada sam imao 24 godine,
00:21
I was a student at St. John's Medical College in Bangalore.
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bio sam student medicinskog fakulteta St. John (Sv. Jovan) u Bangaloru.
00:26
I was a guest student during one month
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Bio sam gostujući student tokom jednomesečnog
00:29
of a public health course.
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seminara o javnom zdravstvu.
00:31
And that changed my mindset forever.
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To iskustvo je zauvek promenilo način na koji posmatram svet.
00:34
The course was good, but it was not the course content
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Seminar je bio dobar, ali njegov sadržaj sam po sebi
00:37
in itself that changed the mindset.
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nije ono što je uticalo na moj način razmišljanje.
00:39
It was the brutal realization,
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U pitanju je bila brutalna istina
00:41
the first morning,
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koju sam shvatio prvog jutra -
00:43
that the Indian students were better than me.
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indijski studenti su bili bolji od mene.
00:46
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:47
You see, I was a study nerd.
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Vidite, ja sam bio zaluđenik za učenje.
00:49
I loved statistics from a young age.
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Od malena sam obožavao statistiku.
00:51
And I studied very much in Sweden.
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I marljivo sam učio u Švedskoj.
00:53
I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended.
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Na svim kursevima koje sam pohađao sam bio jedan od četvrtine najboljih,
00:57
But in St. John's, I was in the lower quarter.
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ali u St. John-u sam bio u četvrtini najlošijih studenata.
01:01
And the fact was that Indian students
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Činjenica je bila da su indijski studenti
01:03
studied harder than we did in Sweden.
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marljivije učili od nas u Švedskoj.
01:06
They read the textbook twice,
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Oni bi pročitali udžbenik dva puta,
01:08
or three times or four times.
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ili tri ili čak četiri puta.
01:10
In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying.
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U Švedskoj bismo ga pročitali jedanput, a zatim otišli da se zabavljamo.
01:13
(Laugher)
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(Smeh)
01:15
And that, to me,
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I to je, meni,
01:18
that personal experience
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to lično iskustvo,
01:20
was the first time in my life
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bio prvi put u mome životu
01:23
that the mindset I grew up with
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da je nešto promenilo način razmišljanja
01:25
was changed.
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sa kojim sam odrastao.
01:28
And I realized that perhaps
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I shvatio sam da možda
01:30
the Western world will not continue
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Zapadni svet neće zauvek
01:32
to dominate the world forever.
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dominirati svetom.
01:35
And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience.
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Mislim da mnogi od vas imaju sličnu vrstu ličnog iskustva.
01:39
It's that realization of someone you meet
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To je ona spoznaja da je neko koga ste upoznali
01:42
that really made you change your ideas about the world.
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uticao na vas da promenite svoje predstave o svetu.
01:44
It's not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny.
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Nije u pitanju sama statistika, iako sam pokušao da prikažem to na zabavan način.
01:48
And I will now,
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A sada ću,
01:52
here, onstage,
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ovde, na sceni,
01:54
try to predict when that will happen --
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dati predviđanje kada će se to dogoditi -
01:57
that Asia will regain
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kada će Azija ponovo zauzeti
02:02
its dominant position
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svoju nadmoćnu poziciju
02:04
as the leading part of the world,
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kao vodeći deo sveta,
02:06
as it used to be, over thousands of years.
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što i jeste bila hiljadama godina.
02:10
And I will do that
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Uradiću to
02:12
by trying to predict precisely
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pokušavajući da predvidim
02:15
at what year
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tačno koje godine
02:17
the average income per person
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će prosečan dohodak po stanovniku
02:19
in India, in China, will reach that of the West.
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u Indiji, Kini, dostići onaj na Zapadu.
02:22
And I don't mean the whole economy,
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Ne mislim na celu ekonomiju,
02:24
because to grow an economy
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budući da rast indijske ekonomije
02:26
of India to the size of U.K. --
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do nivoa one Velike Britanije
02:28
that's a piece of cake, with one billion people.
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nije nikakav problem kada imate milijardu stanovnika.
02:31
But I want to see when will the average pay, the money
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Zapravo, želim da uočim kada će prosečna mesečna plata,
02:35
for each person, per month,
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novčano primanje svake osobe,
02:37
in India and China,
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u Indiji i Kini,
02:39
when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States?
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kada će se izjednačiti sa onima u Velikoj Britaniji i SAD-u?
02:43
But I will start with a historical background.
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Ali počeću istorijskom pozadinom.
02:46
And you can see my map if I get it up here. You know?
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Možete da vidite mapu kada je postavim gore, zar ne?
02:49
I will start at 1858.
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Počeću od 1858.
02:52
1858 was a year of great technological
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1858. je bila godina velikog tehnološkog
02:56
advancement in the West.
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napretka na Zapadu.
02:58
That was the year when Queen Victoria
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To je godina u kojoj je kraljica Viktorija
03:01
was able, for the first time, to communicate
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po prvi put bila u mogućnosti da komunicira
03:03
with President Buchanan,
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sa predsednikom Bjukenanom
03:05
through the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable.
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putem transatlantskog telegrafskog kabla.
03:08
And they were the first to "Twitter" transatlantically.
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Oni su koristili prvi transatlantski "Twitter" (društvena mreža).
03:11
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:12
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
03:16
And I've been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet,
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Koristeći ovaj izvanredan Google i Internet
03:19
to find the text of the telegram
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sam pronašao tekst telegrama
03:21
sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria.
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poslatog od predsednika Bjukenana kraljici Viktoriji.
03:25
And it ends like this: "This telegraph
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Završava se sledećim rečima: "Ovaj telegraf
03:28
is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion,
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je fantastičan instrument za širenje religije,
03:30
civilization, liberty and law throughout the world."
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civilizacije, slobode i zakona širom sveta."
03:34
Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious
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To su lepe reči. Ali zainteresovalo me je
03:37
of what he meant with liberty, and liberty for whom.
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šta je mislio pod "slobodom" i za koga je bila namenjena ta sloboda.
03:41
And we will think about that
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Razmislimo o tome
03:43
when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858.
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dok posmatramo širu sliku sveta iz 1858. godine
03:47
Because 1858
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budući da je 1858.
03:49
was also watershed year
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takođe bila prekretnica
03:52
in the history of Asia.
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u istoriji Azije.
03:54
1858 was the year
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1858. je bila godina
03:56
when the courageous uprising
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u kojoj je smeli ustanak
03:58
against the foreign occupation of India
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u Indiji protiv strane okupacije
04:01
was defeated by the British forces.
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bio ugušen od strane britanske vojske.
04:03
And India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination.
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Nakon toga Indija je bila pod stranom vlašću još 89 godina.
04:08
1858 in China
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1858. u Kini je godina
04:10
was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces.
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pobede britanske vojske u Opijumskom ratu.
04:14
And that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty,
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To je značilo da stranci, kako je navedeno u sporazumu,
04:17
were allowed to trade freely in China.
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mogu slobodno da trguju u Kini
04:19
It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods.
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i da opijumom plaćaju kinesku robu.
04:23
And 1858 in Japan
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Japan je 1858. godine
04:25
was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty
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primoran da potpiše Harisov sporazum
04:28
and accept trade on favorable condition for the U.S.
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i da prihvati trgovinu pod povoljnim uslovima za SAD.
04:32
And they were threatened by those black ships there,
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Bili su ugroženi od strane onih crnih brodova
04:36
that had been in Tokyo harbor over the last year.
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koji su bili usidreni u tokijskoj luci tokom prethodne godine.
04:38
But, Japan, in contrast to India and China,
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Za razliku od Indije i Kine,
04:42
maintained its national sovereignty.
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Japan je zadržao svoj nacionalni suverenitet.
04:45
And let's see how much difference that can make.
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Pogledajmo koliko to može značiti.
04:48
And I will do that by bringing these bubbles
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Uradiću to pokazujući balončiće
04:51
back to a Gapminder graph here,
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ovde na "Gapminder" grafu (www.Gapminder.org),
04:53
where you can see each bubble is a country.
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gde svaki balončić predstavlja jednu zemlju.
04:56
The size of the bubble here is the population.
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Veličina balončića u ovom slučaju je brojnost populacije.
04:59
On this axis, as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar.
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Na ovoj osi je dohodak po stanovniku izražen u uporedivim dolarima,
05:04
And on that axis I have life expectancy, the health of people.
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a na ovoj osi je očekivano trajanje života, mera zdravlja populacije.
05:08
And I also bring an innovation here.
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Takođe, uvodim inovaciju.
05:10
I have transformed the laser beam
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U zelenoj Indiji sam pretvorio
05:13
into an ecological, recyclable version here, in green India.
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laserski zrak u ekološku verziju koja se može reciklirati.
05:18
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
05:22
And we will see, you know.
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I sad ćemo videti.
05:25
Look here, 1858, India was here,
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Pogledajte: 1858. Indija je ovde,
05:28
China was here, Japan was there,
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Kina ovde, Japan tamo,
05:30
United States and United Kingdom
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a SAD i Velika Britanija su kao bogatije
05:32
was richer over there.
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bile tamo.
05:34
And I will start the world like this.
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Pokrenuću svet.
05:37
India was not always like this level.
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Indija nije oduvek bila na ovom nivou razvijenosti.
05:39
Actually if we go back into the historical record,
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Zapravo, ako bismo pogledali u istorijske zapise
05:41
there was a time hundreds of years ago
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postojalo je vreme pre nekoliko stotina godina
05:43
when the income per person in India and China
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kada su prihodi po stanovniku u Indiji i Kini
05:45
was even above that of Europe.
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bili viši čak i od onih u Evropi.
05:47
But 1850 had already been many, many years of foreign domination,
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Ali do 1850. već mnogo, mnogo godina traje strana dominacija
05:51
and India had been de-industrialized.
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i Indija je deindustrijalizovana.
05:54
And you can see that the countries who were growing
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Možete uočiti da zemlje čija
05:56
their economy was United States and United Kingdom.
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ekonomija raste jesu SAD i Velika Britanija.
05:58
And they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthy,
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Počevši od kraja veka one su, takođe, postajale zdravije,
06:01
and Japan was starting to catch up.
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a Japan je počeo da ih sustiže.
06:03
India was trying down here.
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Indija se trudila ovde dole.
06:05
Can you see how it starts to move there?
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Primećujete li kako počinje da se kreće?
06:07
But really, really natural sovereignty was good for Japan.
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Ali suverenitet je bio zaista, zaista dobar za Japan.
06:11
And Japan is trying to move up there.
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I Japan pokušava da se pomeri ovde gore.
06:13
And it's the new century now. Health is getting better,
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Počinje novi vek. Zdravlje se poboljšava,
06:15
United Kingdom, United States.
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Velika Britanija, SAD.
06:17
But careful now -- we are approaching the First World War.
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Oprezno sad - približava se Prvi svetski rat,
06:20
And the First World War, you know,
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a Prvi svetski rat će, kao što znate
06:22
we'll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here.
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doneti mnogo smrti i ekonomskih problema.
06:26
United Kingdom is going down.
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Velika Britanija pada.
06:28
And now comes the Spanish flu also.
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A sada dolazi i španski grip.
06:30
And then after the First World War, they continue up.
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Posle Prvog svetskog rata one nastavljaju uspon.
06:33
Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty,
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Još uvek pod stranom dominacijom i bez suvereniteta,
06:36
India and China are down in the corner.
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Indija i Kina su dole u ćošku.
06:38
Not much has happened.
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Nije se puno toga dogodilo.
06:40
They have grown their population but not much more.
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Povećala im se brojnost populacije, ali sve ostalo je skoro isto.
06:42
In the 1930's now, you can see
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Sada smo u 1930.im i možete primetiti
06:44
that Japan is going to a period of war,
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da Japan prolazi kroz period rata
06:47
with lower life expectancy.
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po nižem očekivanom trajanju života.
06:49
And the Second World War was really a terrible event,
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Drugi svetski rat je bio zaista strašan događaj,
06:51
also economically for Japan.
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za Japan i ekonomski,
06:53
But they did recover quite fast afterwards.
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ali su se oporavili veoma brzo po završetku rata.
06:55
And we are moving into the new world.
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Stižemo u novi svet.
06:57
In 1947 India finally
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Konačno 1947. Indija
07:00
gained its independence.
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stiče nezavisnost.
07:02
And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation,
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Podigli su indijsku zastavu i postali suverena nacija,
07:06
but in very big difficulties down there.
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ali su u velikim problemima ovde dole.
07:09
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
07:12
In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China
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1949. smo prisustvovali javljanju moderne Kine
07:16
in a way which surprised the world.
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na način koji je iznenadio svet.
07:18
And what happened?
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Šta se dogodilo?
07:20
What happens in the after independence?
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Šta se događa posle sticanja nezavisnosti?
07:22
You can see that the health started to improve.
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Primetite da se zdravlje poboljšava.
07:24
Children started to go to school.
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Deca počinju da idu u škole.
07:26
Health services were provided.
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Zdravstvene usluge su pružane.
07:28
This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down.
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A onda je Kina pala za vreme Velikog Skoka Napred. (VSN - drugi petogodišnji plan za razvoj ekonomije u Kini 1958. godine)
07:32
It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung.
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To je bila centralna planska ekonomija Mao Cedunga.
07:34
China recovered. Then they said,
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Zatim se Kina oporavila, a onda su rekli:
07:36
"Nevermore, stupid central planning."
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"Nikad više, planska ekonomija je glupa."
07:38
But they went up here, and India was trying to follow.
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Otišli su ovde gore, a Indija je pokušavala da ih prati
07:41
And they were catching up indeed.
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i zaista su ih sustizali.
07:43
And both countries had the better health, but still
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Obe zemlje su bile sve bolje sa zdravljem,
07:45
a very low economy.
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ali su im ekonomije bile loše.
07:47
And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died,
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Stižemo do 1978., Mao Cedungove smrti
07:50
and a new guy turned up from the left.
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i pojave novog levičara.
07:53
And it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here.
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To je bio Deng Šaoping.
07:56
And he said, "Doesn't matter
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Rekao je: "Nije bitno
07:58
if a cat is white or black,
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da li je mačka bela ili crna,
08:00
as long as it catches mice."
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sve dok hvata miševe."
08:02
Because catching mice
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Zato što je hvatanje miševa
08:04
is what the two cats wanted to do.
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ono što su dve mačke želele da rade.
08:07
And you can see the two cats being here,
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Primetite da dve mačke ovde,
08:10
China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know.
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Kina i Indija, žele da uhvate miševe tamo.
08:13
And they decided to go not only for health and education,
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Odlučili su da ne unapređuju samo zdravstvo i obrazovanje,
08:16
but also starting to grow their economy.
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već da počnu i sa ekonomijom.
08:18
And the market reformer was successful there.
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Reforma tržišta se pokazala uspešnom ovde.
08:20
In '92 India follows with a market reform.
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Indija sledi reformom tržišta 1992.
08:23
And they go quite closely together,
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I zatim idu prilično blizu zajedno
08:25
and you can see that the similarity with India and China,
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i možete primetiti da su sličnosti Indije i Kine
08:27
in many ways, are greater than the differences with them.
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na mnogo načina veće od njihovih različitosti.
08:30
And here they march on. And will they catch up?
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Ovde marširaju, ali da li će sustići?
08:32
This is the big question today.
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To je veliko pitanje današnjice.
08:34
There they are today.
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Ovde su danas.
08:36
Now what does it mean that the --
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Dakle, šta znači to što -
08:38
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
08:41
the averages there -- this is the average of China.
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prosečne vrednosti - ovo je prosek Kine.
08:44
If I would split China, look here,
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Kada bih podelio Kinu, pogledajte ovde,
08:46
Shanghai has already catched up.
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Šangaj je već sustigao.
08:49
Shanghai is already there.
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Šangaj je već tamo.
08:51
And it's healthier than the United States.
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I još je zdraviji od SAD-a.
08:55
But on the other hand, Guizhou, one of the poorest
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Ali, sa druge strane, Guejdžou, jedna od siromašnijih,
08:58
inland provinces of China, is there.
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kontinentalnih provincija Kine, je tamo.
09:01
And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural,
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A ako podelim Guejdžou na urbani i ruralni,
09:05
the rural part of Guizhou goes down there.
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ruralni deo Guejdžoua je tamo dole.
09:08
You see this enormous inequity in China,
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Primetite ove ogromne razlike unutar Kine,
09:11
in the midst of fast economic growth.
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usred brzog ekonomskog rasta.
09:13
And if I would also look at India,
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Kada pogledamo Indiju,
09:15
you have another type of inequity, actually, in India.
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ona zapravo poseduje drugu vrstu nejednakosti.
09:18
The geographical, macro-geographical difference is not so big.
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Geografska, makrogeografska razlika nije toliko velika.
09:23
Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of the states here,
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Utar Pradeš, najveća pokrajina ovde,
09:25
is poorer and has a lower health than the rest of India.
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je siromašnija i lošijeg je zdravlja od ostatka Indije.
09:28
Kerala is flying on top there,
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Kerala leti tamo na vrhu,
09:31
matching United States in health,
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dostigavši SAD po zdravlju,
09:33
but not in economy.
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ali ne i ekonomiji.
09:35
And here, Maharashtra, with Mumbai,
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A ovde, Maharaštra, u kojoj je Mumbaj,
09:37
is forging forward.
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grabi napred.
09:39
Now in India, the big inequities are within the state,
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Dakle, u Indiji su velike nejednakosti unutar pokrajina,
09:42
rather than between the states.
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a ne između njih.
09:44
And that is not a bad thing, in itself.
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Samo po sebi to nije loša stvar.
09:47
If you have a lot inequity, macro-geographical inequities
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Ako imate puno nejednakosti, makrogeografske nejednakosti
09:51
can be more difficult in the long term to deal with,
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mogu biti teže za rešavanje na dugi period
09:54
than if it is in the same area where you have a growth center
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nego ako je nejednakost unutar oblasti, gde je centar rasta
09:57
relatively close to where poor people are living.
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relativno blizu mesta gde žive siromašni ljudi.
10:00
No, there is one more inequity. Look there, United States.
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No, postoji još jedna nejednakost. Pogledaje tamo, SAD.
10:03
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:04
Oh, they broke my frame.
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Oh, probili su mi okvir stranice.
10:06
Washington, D.C. went out here.
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Grad Vašington je ovde.
10:09
My friends at Gapminder wanted me to show this
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Moji prijatelji u "Gapminder"-u su me zamolili da pokažem ovo
10:12
because there is a new leader in Washington
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zato što se u Vašingtonu nalazi novi lider
10:14
who is really concerned about the health system.
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koji je zaista zabrinut za zdravstveni sistem.
10:16
And I can understand him, because Washington, D.C.
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Ja ga razumem, budući da je Vašington
10:19
is so rich over there
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toliko bogat,
10:22
but they are not as healthy as Kerala.
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ali manje zdrav od Kerale.
10:24
It's quite interesting, isn't it?
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To je veoma interesantno, zar ne?
10:26
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
10:31
I can see a business opportunity for Kerala,
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Vidim poslovnu priliku za Keralu,
10:34
helping fix the health system in the United States.
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pomaganje SAD-u oko popravki zdravstvenog sistema.
10:36
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:38
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
10:40
Now here we have the whole world. You have the legend down there.
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Ovde imamo celi svet. U donjem uglu je mapa.
10:43
And when you see the two giant cats here, pushing forward,
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Kada posmatrate dve velike mačke ovde kako guraju napred,
10:47
you see that in between them
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možete primetiti da se između njih
10:49
and ahead of them,
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i ispred njih nalazi
10:51
is the whole emerging economies of the world,
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cela skupina uzdižućih ekonomija sveta,
10:53
which Thomas Friedman so correctly called the "flat world."
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što je Tomas Fridmen veoma ispravno nazvao "ravnim svetom".
10:57
You can see that in health and education,
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Uočite da veliki deo svetske populacije
10:59
a large part of the world population is putting forward,
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gura napred što se tiče zdravlja i obrazovanja,
11:02
but in Africa, and other parts,
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ali da u Africi i nekim drugim mestima,
11:04
as in rural Guizhou in China,
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kao što je ruralni Guejdžou u Kini,
11:06
there is still people with low health and very low economy.
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ljudi i dalje žive u lošim zdravstvenim i ekonomskim uslovima.
11:09
We have an enormous disparity in the world.
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Postoje ogromne nejednakosti u svetu.
11:11
But most of the world in the middle are pushing forwards very fast.
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Ali veći deo sveta koji se nalazi u sredini veoma žuri napred.
11:16
Now, back to my projections.
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Vratimo se mojim predviđanjima.
11:18
When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph.
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Kada će sustići? Moramo se vratiti konvencionalnom grafu.
11:23
I will show income per person on this axis instead,
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Na ovoj osi je dohodak po stanovniku,
11:26
poor down here, rich up there.
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siromašni su dole, bogati gore.
11:28
And then time here, from 1858
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A ovde je vremenska osa, od 1858.
11:30
I start the world.
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Pokrećem svet.
11:32
And we shall see what will happen with these countries.
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Videćemo šta će se dešavati sa ovim zemljama.
11:35
You see, China under foreign domination
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Vidite, u Kini pod stranom vlašću je
11:38
actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here.
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dohodak zapravo pao na nivo Indije ovde.
11:41
Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer.
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Za to vreme Velika Britanije i SAD postaju sve bogatije.
11:45
And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K.
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Posle Drugog svetskog rata, SAD su bogatije od Britanije.
11:48
But independence is coming here.
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Nazavisnost dolazi.
11:50
Growth is starting, economic reform.
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Počinje rast, ekonomska reforma.
11:52
Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF
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Rast ubrzava i pomoću projekcija MMF-a (Međunarodni Monetarni Fond)
11:55
you can see where you expect them to be in 2014.
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možete videti kakvo stanje se očekuje 2014.
11:59
Now, the question is, "When will the catch up take place?"
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Pitanje je: "Kada će se dogoditi sustizanje?"
12:04
Look at, look at the United States.
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Pogledajte SAD.
12:06
Can you see the bubble?
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Vidite li mehur (recesiju, ekonomsku krizu)?
12:08
The bubbles, not my bubbles,
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Mehurove, ne moje balončiće,
12:10
but the financial bubbles.
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već finansijske mehurove.
12:12
That's the dot com bubble. This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there.
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Ovo je "dot com" mehur. Ovo je "stepenik" za koji su zašlužni "Lehman Brothers".
12:17
You see it came down there.
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Vidite kako je dohodak odjednom pao.
12:19
And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know.
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Izgleda da je i ovde neki kamen pao, znate.
12:24
So they doesn't seem to go this way, these countries.
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Dakle, izgleda da ove zemlje ne idu ovim putem.
12:27
They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know.
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Izgleda da imaju mnogo umereniji rast, znate.
12:30
And people interested in growth
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Ljudi koje interesuje rast
12:32
are turning their eyes towards Asia.
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počinju da gledaju ka Aziji.
12:35
I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up.
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Uporedimo sa Japanom. Ovo je uzdizanje Japana.
12:38
You see, Japan did it like that.
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Vidite, Japan je to uradio na ovaj način.
12:40
We add Japan to it.
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Dodajmo Japan.
12:42
And there is no doubt that fast catch up
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Nema sumnje da se brzo sustizanje
12:45
can take place.
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može desiti.
12:47
Can you see here what Japan did?
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Vidite li šta je Japan uradio?
12:49
Japan did it like this, until full catch up,
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Japan je to činio ovako dok nisu sustigli,
12:51
and then they follow with the other high-income economies.
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a zatim prate ostale bogate ekonomije.
12:55
But the real projections for those ones,
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Ali prave projekcije za ovu grupu zemalja
12:58
I would like to give it like this.
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bih hteo da dam na ovaj način.
13:03
Can be worse, can be better.
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Može lošije, može bolje.
13:05
It's always difficult to predict, especially about the future.
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Uvek je teško predviđati, pogotovo kad je u pitanju budućnost.
13:09
Now, a historian tells me it's even more difficult to predict about the past.
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Jedan istoričar mi je rekao da je još teže predviđati prošlost.
13:12
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
13:14
I think I'm in a difficult position here.
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Mislim da sam u teškom položaju ovde.
13:17
Inequalities in China and India
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Nejednakosti u Kini i Indiji
13:19
I consider really the big obstacle
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smatram zaista velikom preprekom,
13:23
because to bring the entire population into growth and prosperity
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budući da je "uvlačenje" kompletnog stanovništva u rast i prosperitet
13:27
is what will create a domestic market,
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ono što će stvoriti domaće tržište,
13:29
what will avoid social instability,
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omogućiti društvenu stabilnost
13:32
and which will make use of the entire capacity
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i iskoristiti pun kapacitet
13:35
of the population.
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stanovništva.
13:37
So, social investments in health, education and infrastructure,
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Dakle, društvena ulaganja u zdravstvo, obrazovanje i infrastrukturu,
13:41
and electricity is really what is needed in India and China.
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i elektrifikaciju su ono što je zaista neophodno Indiji i Kini.
13:47
You know the climate. We have great international experts
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Upoznati ste sa klimom. Internacionalni eksperti
13:50
within India telling us that the climate is changing,
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iz Indije poručuju da se klima menja
13:53
and actions has to be taken,
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i da moramo delati,
13:55
otherwise China and India would be the countries
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inače će Kina i Indija biti zemlje
13:58
most to suffer from climate change.
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koje će najviše pogoditi klimatske promene.
14:00
And I consider India and China the best partners in the world
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Smatram da su Indija i Kina najbolji partneri na svetu
14:03
in a good global climate policy.
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po pitanju dobre globalne klimatske politike.
14:06
But they ain't going to pay
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Ali oni neće plaćati
14:08
for what others, who have more money,
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ono što su drugi, koji imaju više novca,
14:10
have largely created, and I can agree on that.
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uglavnom stvorili i ja se mogu složiti sa time.
14:13
But what I'm really worried about is war.
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Ali ono što me istinski brine je rat.
14:16
Will the former rich countries really accept
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Da li će bivše bogate zemlje zaista dopustiti
14:18
a completely changed world economy,
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da se svetska ekonomija potpuno promeni
14:21
and a shift of power away from where it has been
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i da se moć premesti sa mesta na kojima je bila
14:24
the last 50 to 100 to 150 years,
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prethodnih 50, 100, pa i 150 godina,
14:26
back to Asia?
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nazad u Aziju?
14:28
And will Asia be able to handle that
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I da li će Azija biti u stanju da se nosi
14:30
new position of being in charge
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sa novom zapovedničkom pozicijom,
14:32
of being the most mighty, and the governors of the world?
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pozicijom najmoćnijeg i svetskog vladara?
14:35
So, always avoid war,
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Uvek trebamo izbeći rat,
14:37
because that always pushes human beings backward.
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rat gurne ljude unazad.
14:40
Now if these inequalities, climate and war can be avoided,
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Dakle, ako rešimo probleme nejednakosti, klime i ratovanje,
14:44
get ready for a world in equity,
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spremite se za svet jednakosti.
14:47
because this is what seems to be happening.
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Po svemu sudeći to se dešava.
14:50
And that vision that I got as a young student,
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I ta vizija koju sam imao kao mladi student,
14:52
1972, that Indians can be much better than Swedes,
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1972. godine, kako Indijci mogu biti daleko bolji od Šveđana,
14:58
is just about to happen.
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će se uskoro desiti.
15:00
And it will happen precisely
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A desiće se tačno
15:03
the year 2048
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2048. godine
15:07
in the later part of the summer, in July,
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u kasnijem delu leta, u julu,
15:10
more precisely, the 27th of July.
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tačnije 27. jula.
15:13
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
15:21
The 27th of July, 2048
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27. jul 2048.
15:25
is my 100th birthday.
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je moj 100. rođendan.
15:27
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
15:29
And I expect to speak
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I očekujem da ću biti
15:31
in the first session of the 39th TED India.
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predavač u prvoj grupi na 39. TED Indija konferenciji.
15:35
Get your bookings in time. Thank you very much.
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Rezervišite karte na vreme. Puno vam hvala.
15:38
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com