TEDxBoulder 2011
Phil Plait: How to defend Earth from asteroids
Fil Pleit: Kako da odbranimo Zemlju od asteroida
Filmed:
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Šta je deset kilometara široko i može da uništi civilizaciju u trenu? Asteroid - a ima ih mnogo. Duhovito i slikovito, Fil Pleit je zaiteresovao publiku TEDxBoulder-a destruktivnošću asteroida i onim što moramo da učinimo da bismo ih izbegli.
Phil Plait - Astronomer
Phil Plait blogs at Bad Astronomy, where he deconstructs misconceptions and explores the wonder of the universe. Full bio
Phil Plait blogs at Bad Astronomy, where he deconstructs misconceptions and explores the wonder of the universe. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I want to talk to you about something
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Hteo bih da vam pričam o nečemu.
00:18
kind of big.
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prilično važnom.
00:21
We'll start here.
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Počnimo odavde.
00:24
65 million years ago
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Pre 65 miliona godina
00:27
the dinosaurs had a bad day.
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dinosaurusi su imali loš dan.
00:30
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
00:33
A chunk of rock six miles across,
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Kamenčina prečnika deset kilometara
00:36
moving something like 50 times
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koja se kretala oko 50 puta brže
00:38
the speed of a rifle bullet,
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od brzine metka,
00:40
slammed into the Earth.
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tresnula je u Zemlju.
00:42
It released its energy all at once,
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U jedom trenutku je oslobodila svu svoju energiju,
00:44
and it was an explosion that was
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bila je to
00:46
mind-numbing.
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neverovatna eksplozija.
00:48
If you took every nuclear weapon ever built
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Ako uzmete kompletno nuklearno naoružanje napravljeno
00:50
at the height of the Cold War,
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na vrhuncu Hladnog rata
00:52
lumped them together and blew them up
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sakupljeno zajedno i aktivirano
00:54
at the same time,
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u istom trenutku
00:56
that would be one one-millionth
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to bi bio jedan milioniti deo
00:58
of the energy released at that moment.
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energije koja je tada bila oslobođena.
01:02
The dinosaurs had a really bad day.
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Bio je to izuzetno loš dan za dinosauruse.
01:05
Okay?
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Verujte.
01:07
Now, a six-mile-wide rock is very large.
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Uistinu, deset kilometara širok kamen je veoma veliki.
01:09
We all live here in Boulder.
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Svi mi živimo ovde u Bulderu.
01:11
If you look out your window and you can see
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Ukoliko pogledate kroz prozor videćete
01:13
Long's Peak, you're probably familiar with it.
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planinu Longs Pik, verovatno je prepoznajete.
01:15
Now, scoop up Long's Peak, and put it out
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Sad, iskopajmo Longs Pik i izdvojmo je
01:17
in space.
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u kosmos.
01:19
Take Meeker, Mt. Meeker. Lump that in there,
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Uzmimo Meeker, planinu Meeker. Dodajmo je tamo
01:21
and put that in space as well,
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i stavimo i nju u kosmos,
01:23
and Mt. Everest, and K2,
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i Maunt Everest, i K2,
01:25
and the Indian peaks.
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I Indijske vrhove.
01:27
Then you're starting to get an idea of
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Sada tek počinjete da dobijate predstavu
01:29
how much rock we're talking about, okay?
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o koliko kamenja pričamo, razumete ?
01:31
We know it was that big because of
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Znamo da je bio toliko veliki zbog
01:33
the impact it had and the crater it left.
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siline udara i kratera koji je ostavio.
01:35
It hit in what we now know as Yucatan,
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Udario je u ono što mi poznajemo kao Jukatan,
01:37
the Gulf of Mexico.
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u Meksičkom zalivu.
01:39
You can see here, there's the
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Ovde možete videti, tamo je
01:41
Yucatan Peninsula, if you recognize Cozumel
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poluostrvo Jukatan, ukoliko prepoznajete Konzumel
01:43
off the east coast there.
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tamo pored istočne obale.
01:45
Here is how big of a crater was left.
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Ovoliko je bio veliki krater.
01:48
It was huge. To give you a sense of the scale,
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Bio je ogroman. Da biste dobili osećaj veličine,
01:50
okay, there you go. The scale here is
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u redu, evo je, skala je ovde
01:52
50 miles on top, a hundred kilometers
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Osamdeset kilometara na vrhu, stotine kilometara
01:54
on the bottom. This thing was
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pri dnu. Ovo je bilo
01:56
300 kilometers across -- 200 miles --
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300 kilometara u prečniku - 200 milja -
01:58
an enormous crater that excavated out
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neverovatan krater koji je izbacio
02:00
vast amounts of earth that splashed around
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ogromnu količinu zemlje koja se rasprskala unaokolo
02:03
the globe and set fires all over the planet,
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planete, a zatim zapalio požare po celoj planeti,
02:06
threw up enough dust to block out the sun.
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izbacio dovoljno prašine da zamrači Sunce.
02:09
It wiped out 75 percent of all species
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Uništio je 75% svih vrsta
02:11
on Earth.
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na Zemlji.
02:13
Now, not all asteroids are that big.
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Ali nisu svi asteroidi veliki.
02:16
Some of them are smaller.
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Neki su manji.
02:18
Here is one that came in
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Ovo je jedan koji je prošao
02:21
over the United States
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preko Sjedinjenih Država
02:23
in October of 1992.
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oktobra 1992.
02:25
It came in on a Friday night.
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Pojavio se jednog petka uveče.
02:27
Why is that important?
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Zašto je to važno?
02:29
Because back then, video cameras were
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Zato što su tada video kamere
02:31
just starting to become popular, and people
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tek postajale popularne i ljudi
02:33
would bring them, parents would bring them,
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bi ih poneli, roditelji bi ih poneli,
02:35
to their kids' football games to film their kids
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na utakmice svoje dece da bi ih snimili
02:37
play football. And since this came in on a Friday,
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dok igraju fudbal. I budući da se pojavila u petak,
02:40
they were able to get this great footage
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bili su u prilici da snime
02:42
of this thing breaking up as it came in
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kako se razlamala dok je preletala
02:44
over West Virgina, Maryland, Pennsylvania
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preko zapadne Virdžinije, Merilenda, Pensilvanije
02:46
and New Jersey until it did that
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i Nju Džersija sve dok nije ovo učinila
02:48
to a car in New York.
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automobilu u Njujorku.
02:50
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
02:52
Now, this is not a 200-mile-wide crater,
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Svakako, ovo nije 320 kilometara širok krater,
02:55
but then again you can see the rock
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ali ipak možete videti kamen
02:57
which is sitting right here,
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koji stoji pored,
02:59
about the size of a football, that hit
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otprilike veličine fudbalske lopte, koji je pogodio
03:01
that car and did that damage.
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onaj automobil i pričinio štetu.
03:03
Now this thing was probably about the size
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Ovo je verovatno bilo veličine
03:05
of a school bus when it first came in.
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autobusa kada se pojavilo.
03:07
It broke up through atmospheric pressure,
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Razlomilo se usled atmosferskog pritiska,
03:09
it crumbled, and then the pieces fell apart
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razmrvilo i raspalo na komadiće
03:11
and did some damage.
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i učinilo neku štetu.
03:13
Now, you wouldn't want that falling on your foot
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Svakako, ne biste voleli da vam je pao na nogu
03:15
or your head, because it would do that to it.
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ili glavu, jer bi vas ozbiljno povredilo.
03:17
That would be bad.
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A, to bi bilo loše.
03:19
But it won't wipe out, you know, all life
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Na sreću ne bi uništilo celokupni život
03:21
on Earth, so that's fine. But it turns out,
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na Zemlji, tako da je u redu. Ali ipak,
03:23
you don't need something six miles across
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nije potrebno nešto prečnika deset kilometara
03:26
to do a lot of damage.
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da bi učinilo mnogo štete.
03:28
There is a median point between tiny rock
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Postoji srednja veličina, između kamenčića
03:30
and gigantic rock, and in fact, if any of you
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i ogromnih stena, i zapravo, ako je neko od vas
03:32
have ever been to near Winslow, Arizona,
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ikada posetio Vinslou u Arizoni,
03:35
there is a crater in the desert there that is
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tamo je krater u pustinji koji je
03:38
so iconic that it is actually called Meteor Crater.
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toliko poznat da je nazvan Meteor krater.
03:42
To give you a sense of scale, this is about a mile wide.
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Da biste dobili osećaj veličine, on je širok oko jedan ipo kilometar.
03:45
If you look up at the top, that's a parking lot,
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Ukoliko pogledate na vrh, tamo je parking,
03:48
and those are recreational vehicles right there.
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a ono tamo su kamp-vozila.
03:51
So it's about a mile across, 600 feet deep.
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Znači da je oko kilometar ipo širok, a 180 metara dubok.
03:54
The object that formed this was probably about
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Objekat koji ga je stvorio je verovatno bio
03:57
30 to 50 yards across, so roughly the size
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prečnika 27 do 45 metara, grubo veličine
04:00
of Mackey Auditorium here.
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ovog Meki auditorijuma.
04:03
It came in at speeds that were tremendous,
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Došao je neverovatnom brzinom,
04:06
slammed into the ground, blew up,
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tresnuo u površinu, razleteo se
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and exploded with the energy of roughly
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i eksplodirao energijom otprilike
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a 20-megaton nuclear bomb --
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nuklearne bombe od 20 megatona --
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a very hefty bomb.
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veoma moćna bomba.
04:14
This was 50,000 years ago, so it may have
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Ovo se desilo pre 50.000 godina, tako da je verovatno
04:16
wiped out a few buffalo or antelope,
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ubilo nekoliko bufala ili antilopa
04:18
or something like that out in the desert,
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ili nečeg sličnog tamo u pustinji,
04:21
but it probably would not have caused
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ali verovatno nije uzrokovao
04:23
global devastation.
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globalnu pustoš.
04:25
It turns out that these things don't have to
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Ispostavilo se da oni ne moraju da
04:27
hit the ground to do a lot of damage.
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udare u površinu da bi učinili mnogo štete.
04:30
Now, in 1908, over Siberia, near the
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1908. iznad Sibira, u blizini
04:32
Tunguska region -- for those of you who are
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regiona Tunguska -- za vas koji ste
04:34
Dan Aykroyd fans and saw "Ghostbusters,"
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obožavaoci Dena Akrojda i gledali "Ghoustbusters"-e
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when he talked about the greatest cross-dimensional rift
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kada je pričao o najvećem među-dimenzionalnom prolazu
04:39
since the Siberia blast of 1909, where he got
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od eksplozije u Sibiru 1909., rekao je
04:42
the date wrong, but that's okay. (Laughter)
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pogrešan datum, ali nema veze. (smeh)
04:44
It was 1908. That's fine. I can live with that.
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Bilo je to 1908. Nije bitno. Izdrzaću.
04:47
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
04:50
Another rock came into the Earth's atmosphere
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Drugi kamen je došao u Zemljinu atmosferu
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and this one blew up above the ground, several
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i ovaj je eksplodirao iznad površine, nekoliko
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miles up above the surface of the Earth.
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kilometara iznad Zemljinog tla.
04:58
The heat from the explosion set fire to the
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Vrelina eksplozije je zapalila
05:01
forest below it, and then the shock wave
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šumu ispod i razvila talas
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came down and knocked down trees for
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koji je oborio drveće na površini od
05:06
hundreds of square miles, okay?
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nekoliko stotina kvadratnih kilometara, razumete?
05:09
This did a huge amount of damage.
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Ovo je učinilo ogromnu štetu.
05:11
And again, this was a rock probably roughly
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Ponovo, ovo je bio kamen otprilike
05:13
the size of this auditorium that we're sitting in.
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veličine ovog auditorijuma u kome sedimo.
05:15
In Meteor Crater it was made of metal,
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Meteor je bio sačinjen od metala,
05:17
and metal is much tougher, so it made it
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metal je mnogo tvrđi, tako da je uspeo
05:19
to the ground.
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da stigne do Zemlje.
05:21
The one over Tunguska was probably made
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Onaj iznad Tunguske je verovatno bio sačinjen
05:23
of rock, and that's much more crumbly, so it
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od kamena, a on se mnogo lakše mrvi, tako da se
05:25
blew up in the air. Either way, these are
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razleteo u vazduhu. Bilo kako, ovo su
05:27
tremendous explosions, 20 megatons.
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ogromne eksplozije, 20 megatona.
05:30
Now, when these things blow up, they're not
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Kada eksplodiraju, oni neće
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going to do global ecological damage.
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učiniti globalnu ekološku katastrofu.
05:35
They're not going to do something like
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Oni neće učiniti ništa slično
05:37
the dinosaur-killer did.
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uništenju dinosaurusa.
05:39
They're just not big enough.
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Oni jednostavno nisu dovoljno krupni.
05:41
But they will do global economic damage,
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Ali, učinice globalnu, ekonomsku štetu,
05:43
because they don't have to hit, necessarily,
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zato što nije neophodno da nas udare
05:45
to do this kind of damage.
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kako bi pričinili ovakvu štetu.
05:47
They don't have to do global devastation.
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Ne moraju da učine globalno uništenje.
05:49
If one of these things were to hit
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Ukoliko neki od njih igde udari
05:51
pretty much anywhere, it would cause a panic.
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proizveo bi paniku.
05:53
But if it came over a city, an important city --
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Ali, ukoliko pređe preko grada, važnog grada --
05:55
not that any city is more important than others,
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nije da su neki gradovi važniji od drugih,
05:57
but some of them we depend on them more
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ali o nekima zavisimo više od drugih
05:59
on the global economic basis -- that could do
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na globalnoj, ekonomskoj skali -- to bi nam moglo
06:02
a huge amount of damage to us
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pričiniti ogromnu štetu,
06:05
as a civilization.
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nama kao civilizaciji.
06:07
So, now that I've scared the crap out of you ...
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Dakle, sada kada sam vas uplašio ...
06:10
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
06:12
what can we do about this? All right?
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šta bismo mogli učiniti? Razumete?
06:14
This is a potential threat.
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Ovo je potencijalna pretnja.
06:16
Let me note that we have not had
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Primetićete da nismo imali
06:18
a giant impact like the dinosaur-killer
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katastrofalan udar kao onaj koji je uništio dinosauruse
06:20
for 65 million years. They're very rare.
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u poslednjih 65 miliona godina. Oni su veoma retki.
06:23
The smaller ones happen more often, but
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Manji se događaju mnogo češće, ali
06:26
probably on the order of a millennium,
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na milenijumskoj skali, verovatno
06:28
every few centuries or every few thousand
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svakih nekoliko vekova ili nekoliko hiljada
06:30
years, but it's still something to be aware of.
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godina, ali ipak je to nešto čega trebamo biti svesni.
06:33
Well, what do we do about them?
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Znači, šta možemo da učinimo ?
06:35
The first thing we have to do is find them.
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Prvo moramo da ih pronađemo.
06:37
This is an image of an asteroid that passed
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Ovo je slika asteroida koji nas je prošao
06:39
us in 2009.
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2009.
06:41
It's right here.
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Evo ga ovde.
06:43
But you can see that it's extremely faint.
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Možete primetiti da je poprilično nejasno.
06:45
I don't even know if you can see that
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Čak nisam siguran ni da li možete ovo
06:47
in the back row. These are just stars.
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videti vi iz poslednjeg reda. Ovo su samo zvezde.
06:49
This is a rock that was about 30 yards across,
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Ovo je kamen koji je bio oko 28 metara u prečniku
06:51
so roughly the size of the ones that blew up
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znači otprilike, veličine onoga koji se razleteo iznad
06:53
over Tunguska and hit Arizona 50,000 years ago.
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Tunguske i onoga koji je pogodio Arizonu pre 50.000 godina.
06:56
These things are faint.
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Oni su nejasni.
06:58
They're hard to see, and the sky is really big.
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Teško se vide, a nebo je zaista ogromno.
07:00
We have to find these things first.
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Mi moramo brzo da ih uočimo.
07:02
Well the good news is, we're looking for them.
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Dobra vest je da ih tražimo.
07:04
NASA has devoted money to this.
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NASA je namenila novac za ovo.
07:06
The National Science Foundation, other
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Nacionalna naučna fondacija i druge
07:08
countries are very interested in doing this.
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zemlje su veoma zainteresovane za ovo.
07:10
We're building telescopes that are looking
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Gradimo teleskope koji će tražiti
07:12
for the threat. That's a great first step,
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ovu pretnju. To je prvi veliki korak,
07:14
but what's the second step? The second step
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ali šta je drugi korak? Drugi korak
07:16
is that we see one heading toward us,
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je da primetimo onaj koji ide prema nama,
07:18
we have to stop it. What do we do?
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moramo ga zaustaviti. Šta da uradimo ?
07:20
You've probably heard about the asteroid
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Verovatno ste čuli za asteroid
07:22
Apophis. If you haven't yet, you will.
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Apofiz. Ukoliko niste, čućete.
07:25
If you've heard about the Mayan 2012
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Ako ste čuli za kalendar Maja i 2012.
07:27
apocalypse, you're going to hear about Apophis,
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apokalipsu, čućete i za Apofiz,
07:29
because you're keyed in to all the doomsday
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zato što su vezani za teoriju o
07:31
networks anyway.
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sudnjem danu.
07:34
Apophis is an asteroid that was discovered in 2004.
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Apofiz je asteroid koji je otkriven 2004.
07:37
It's roughly 250 yards across, so it's
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Otprilike je 230 metara u prečniku, znači
07:40
pretty big -- big size, you know,
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da je prilično krupan, razumete,
07:42
bigger than a football stadium -- and it's going to
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veći od fudbalskog stadiona -- i proći će
07:44
pass by the Earth in April of 2029.
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pored Zemlje u aprilu 2029.
07:47
And it's going to pass us so close that it's
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Proći će pored nas toliko blizu da će
07:49
actually going to come underneath
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ustvari proći ispod
07:51
our weather satellites.
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naših meteoroloških satelita.
07:53
The Earth's gravity is going to bend the orbit
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Zemljina gravitacija će zakriviti njegovu putanju
07:55
of this thing so much that if it's just right,
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toliko da je moguće da, ukoliko
07:58
if it passes through this region of space,
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prođe ovaj region u svemiru,
08:01
this kidney bean-shaped region called
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ovaj region u obliku pasulja poznat kao
08:03
the keyhole, the Earth's gravity will bend it
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ključaonica, Zemljina gravitacija će ga zakriviti
08:05
just enough that seven years later
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sasvim dovoljno da sedam godina kasnije
08:07
on April 13, which is a Friday, I'll note,
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13. aprila, a to je petak, primetiću,
08:09
in the year 2036 ... (Laughter)
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godine 2036 ... (smeh)
08:12
-- you can't plan that kind of stuff --
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-- možete očekivati --
08:15
Apophis is going to hit us. And it's
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da će nas Apofiz pogoditi. On je
08:17
250 meters across, so it would do
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prečnika 250 metara, znači učinio bi
08:19
unbelievable damage.
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nevrovatnu štetu.
08:21
Now the good news is that the odds of it
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Dobra vest je da verovatnoća da će
08:23
actually passing through this keyhole and
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proći kroz ključaonicu i
08:25
hitting us next go-around are one in a million,
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pogoditi nas sledeći put kada naiđe je jedan od milion,
08:27
roughly -- very, very low odds, so I personally
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otprilike -- veoma, veoma slaba, tako da ja lično
08:29
am not lying awake at night worrying about this at all.
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nisam budan noćima zbog brige o ovome.
08:31
I don't think Apophis is a problem.
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Ja mislim da Apofiz nije problem.
08:33
In fact, Apophis is a blessing in disguise,
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Ustvari, Apofiz je prikriveni blagoslov,
08:35
because it woke us up to the dangers
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zato što nas je upozorio na opasnost
08:37
of these things.
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od asteroida.
08:39
This thing was discovered just a few years
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Ovaj je otkriven pre svega nekoliko godina
08:41
ago and could hit us a few years from now.
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i mogao bi nas pogoditi u narednih nekoliko godina.
08:43
It won't, but it gives us a chance to study
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Neće, ali nam daje šansu da proučimo
08:45
these kinds of asteroids. We didn't really
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ovakve asteroide. Uistinu mi nismo
08:47
necessarily understand these keyholes, and
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razumeli ove ključaonce, ali
08:49
now we do and it turns out
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sada ih razumemo, a to je
08:51
that's really important, because how do you
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veoma važno, jer kako da
08:53
stop an asteroid like this?
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zaustavimo ovakve asteroide?
08:55
Well, let me ask you, what happens if you're
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I da vas pitam, šta radite ukoliko
08:57
standing in the middle of the road and a car's
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stojite na sredini puta i automobil
08:59
headed for you? What do you do? You do this.
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ide prema vama? Šta radite? Ovo.
09:01
Right? Move. The car goes past you.
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Jeli tako? Pomerite se. I automobil prođe pored vas.
09:03
But we can't move the Earth, at least
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Ali ne možemo pomeriti Zemlju, to svakako
09:05
not easily, but we can move a small asteroid.
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nije jednostavno, ali možemo pomeriti mali asteroid.
09:07
And it turns out, we've even done it.
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Ustvari, to smo već uradili.
09:09
In the year 2005, NASA launched a probe
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Godine 2005, Nasa je lansirala sondu
09:12
called Deep Impact, which slammed into --
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nazvanu "Deep Impact (Duboki udar)", koja se sudarila sa
09:15
slammed a piece of itself into the nucleus of a comet.
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i zarila jedan svoj deo u središte komete.
09:18
Comets are very much like asteroids.
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Komete su prilično slične asteroidima.
09:20
The purpose wasn't to push it out of the way.
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Svrha nije bila da se ona skrene sa putanje.
09:22
The purpose was to make a crater to excavate
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Svrha je bila napraviti krater i izdvojiti
09:24
the material and see what was underneath
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materijal i videti šta je ispod
09:26
the surface of this comet, which we learned
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površine ove komete, o čemu smo
09:28
quite a bit about.
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naučili mnogo.
09:30
We did move the comet a little tiny bit,
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Malo smo pomerili kometu
09:32
not very much, but that wasn't the point.
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ne mnogo, ali to i nije bio cilj.
09:34
However, think about this.
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Svakako, mislite o ovome.
09:36
This thing is orbiting the sun at
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Ona kruži oko Sunca brzinom
09:38
10 miles per second, 20 miles per second.
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15 ili 20 kilometara u sekundi.
09:40
We shot a space probe at it and hit it. Okay?
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Lansirali smo sondu i pogodili je. Razumete ?
09:42
Imagine how hard that must be, and we did it.
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Zamislite koliko je to teško, ali smo uspeli.
09:45
That means we can do it again.
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To znači da možemo to učiniti ponovo.
09:48
If we need, if we see an asteroid that's coming
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Ako zatreba, ukoliko primetimo asteroid koji dolazi
09:50
toward us, and it's headed right for us,
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prema nama, i ide pravo na nas,
09:52
and we have two years to go, boom! We hit it.
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treba nam dve godine, tras! Pogodak.
09:55
You can try to -- you know, if you watch
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Možete pomisliti -- ukoliko gledate filmove,
09:57
the movies, you might think about,
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možete pomisliti,
09:59
why don't we use a nuclear weapon?
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zašto ne upotrebimo nuklearno oružje ?
10:01
It's like, well, you can try that, but the problem is timing.
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Pa, zapravo, možemo to pokušati, ali problem je u vremenu.
10:03
You shoot a nuclear weapon at this thing,
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Ako ispalimo nuklearno oružje na ovu stvar,
10:05
you have to blow it up within a few milliseconds
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moramo ga aktivirati u nekoliko milisekundi
10:07
of tolerance or else you'll just miss it.
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tolerancije ili ćemo je promašiti.
10:09
And there are a lot of other problems
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A ima tu i mnogo drugih problema
10:11
with that. It's very hard to do.
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sa tim. To je jako teško uraditi.
10:13
But just hitting something? That's pretty easy.
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Ali samo pogoditi nešto? To je veoma lako.
10:15
I think even NASA can do that,
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Verujem da bi čak i NASA uspela u tome,
10:17
and they proved that they can. (Laughter)
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dokazali su da mogu. (smeh)
10:19
The problem is, what happens if you hit
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Problem je, šta ako pogodimo
10:21
this asteroid, you've changed the orbit,
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ovaj asteroid, promenimo mu putanju,
10:23
you measure the orbit and then you find out,
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premerimo orbitu i pronađemo,
10:25
oh, yeah, we just pushed it into a keyhole,
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uh, da, upravo smo ga gurnuli kroz ključaonicu
10:27
and now it's going to hit us in three years.
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i sada će nas pogoditi za tri godine.
10:29
Well, my opinion is, fine. Okay?
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Pa, po mom mišljenju, to je u redu. Razumete?
10:31
It's not hitting us in six months. That's good.
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Neće nas pogoditi kroz šest meseci. I to je dobro.
10:33
Now we have three years to do something else.
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Sada imamo tri godine da smislimo nešto.
10:36
And you can hit it again. That's kind of
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Možemo ga još jednom pogoditi. To je pomalo
10:38
ham-fisted. You might just push it into a third
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lutrija. Možemo ga gurnuti u treću
10:40
keyhole or whatever, so you don't do that.
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ključaonicu ili slično, pa to nećemo uraditi.
10:42
And this is the part, it's the part I just love.
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A ovo je deo, deo koji ja prosto volim.
10:46
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
10:48
After the big macho "Rrrrrrr BAM! We're
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Nakon velikog mačo "Grrrrrr TRAS! Mi ćemo
10:50
gonna hit this thing in the face,"
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ga udariti po sred lica",
10:52
then we bring in the velvet gloves.
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ipak ćemo doneti plišane rukavice.
10:55
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
10:58
There's a group of scientists and engineers
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Ovde je grupa naučnika i inženjera
11:00
and astronauts and they call themselves
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i astronauta koji sebe nazivaju
11:02
The B612 Foundation. For those of you
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B612 fondacija. Za vas koji
11:04
who've read "The Little Prince,"
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ste pročitali "Malog princa",
11:06
you understand that reference, I hope. The little prince
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razumećete, nadam se. Mali princ
11:08
who lived on an asteroid, it was called B612.
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je živeo na asteroidu koji se zvao B612.
11:10
These are smart guys -- men and women --
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Ovo su pametni ljudi -- muškarci i žene --
11:12
astronauts, like I said, engineers.
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astronauti, kao što rekoh, inženjeri.
11:14
Rusty Schweickart, who was an Apollo 9
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Rasti Šveikart, koji je bio astronaut na Apolu 9
11:16
astronaut, is on this. Dan Durda, my friend
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i on je ovde. Den Darda, moj prijatelj
11:18
who made this image, works here at
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koji je napravio ovu sliku, radi ovde, u
11:20
Southwest Research Institute in Boulder,
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Jugozapadnom istraživačkom centru u Bulderu,
11:22
on Walnut Street. He created this image for this,
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u Volnat ulici. On je stvorio ovu sliku za ovo
11:24
and he's actually one of the astronomers
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i on je zapravo jedan od astronoma
11:26
who works for them. If we see an asteroid
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koji radi za njih. Ukoliko vidimo asteroid
11:28
that's going to hit the Earth and we have
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koji će pogoditi Zemlju i ukoliko imamo
11:30
enough time, we can hit it to move it into
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dovoljno vremena, možemo ga pogoditi i pomeriti u
11:33
a better orbit. But then what we do is we launch
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bolju orbitu. I onda ćemo lansirati
11:36
a probe that has to weigh a ton or two.
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sondu koja je teška tonu ili dve.
11:38
It doesn't have to be huge -- couple of tons,
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Ne mora da bude ogromna -- nekoliko tona,
11:41
not that big -- and you park it near the asteroid.
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ne prevelika -- i parkiraćemo je u blizini asteroida.
11:44
You don't land on it, because these things are
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Nećemo sleteti na njega, jer oni se
11:46
tumbling end over end. It's very hard to land on them.
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prevrću i obrću. Veoma je teško sleteti na njih.
11:48
Instead you get near it.
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Umesto toga samo ćemo im prići blizu.
11:50
The gravity of the asteroid pulls on the probe,
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Gravitacija asteroida će povući sondu,
11:52
and the probe has a couple of tons of mass.
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a sonda ima masu od nekoliko tona.
11:55
It has a little tiny bit of gravity, but it's enough
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Ima veoma slabu gravitaciju, ali i to je dovoljno
11:57
that it can pull the asteroid, and you have your
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da povuče asteroid, a imamo i
11:59
rockets set up, so you can -- oh, you can barely
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pripremljene rakete, tako da -- ah, ovde možete
12:01
see it here, but there's rocket plumes -- and you
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jedva videti, ali ovde su raketni otvori -- i
12:03
basically, these guys are connected by their
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u osnovi, oni su povezani sa njihovom
12:05
own gravity, and if you move the probe very
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gravitacijom, i ukoliko pomerimo sondu veoma
12:08
slowly, very, very gently, you can very easily
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polako, veoma, veoma nežno, možemo veoma lako
12:12
finesse that rock into a safe orbit.
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pomeriti kamen u sigurnu orbitu.
12:15
You can even put in orbit around the Earth
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Možemo ga čak i postaviti u Zemljinu orbitu
12:17
where we could mine it, although that's a
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gde ga možemo iskopavati kao rudnik, ali to je
12:19
whole other thing. I won't go into that.
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potpuno nova tema. Neću sada o tome.
12:21
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
12:23
But we'd be rich!
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Ali, obogatili bismo se!
12:25
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
12:30
So think about this, right?
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Mislite o tome, razumete ?
12:32
There are these giant rocks flying out there,
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Ovo džinovsko kamenje leti tamo,
12:34
and they're hitting us, and they're doing
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i udara u nas, i čine
12:36
damage to us, but we've figured out how to do
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nam štetu, ali mi smo naučili kako da uradimo
12:38
this, and all the pieces are in place to do this.
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ovo, a i posedujemo sve potrebno da bismo to izveli.
12:41
We have astronomers in place with telescopes
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Imamo astronome raspoređene sa teleskopima
12:43
looking for them. We have smart people,
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koji ih traže. Imamo pametne ljude,
12:45
very, very smart people, who are concerned
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veoma, veoma pametne ljude, koji su zabrinuti
12:47
about this and figuring out how to fix the
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za ovo i koji će razumeti kako da reše
12:49
problem, and we have the technology to do this.
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problem, a imamo tehnologiju da to uradimo.
12:52
This probe actually can't use chemical rockets.
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Zapravo, ova sonda ne može koristiti hemijske rakete.
12:54
Chemical rockets provide too much thrust, too
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Hemijske rakete proizvode prejak potisak, previše
12:56
much push. The probe would just shoot away.
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snage. Sonda bi jednostavno nekontrolisano odletela.
12:58
We invented something called an ion drive,
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Izumeli smo nešto nazvano jon pogon,
13:00
which is a very, very, very low-thrust engine.
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a to je motor sa veoma, veoma, veoma slabim potiskom.
13:03
It generates the force a piece of paper would
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Stvara silu kao parče papira na
13:05
have on your hand, incredibly light,
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vašoj ruci, izuzetno slabu,
13:07
but it can run for months and years,
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ali može da radi mesecima i godinama,
13:10
providing that very gentle push.
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stvarajući veoma nežan potisak.
13:13
If anybody here is a fan of the original "Star Trek,"
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Ako je netko ovde ljubitelj originala "Zvezdanih staza",
13:15
they ran across an alien ship that had
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oni su naišli na vanzemaljski brod koji je imao
13:17
an ion drive, and Spock said,
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jon pogon, a Spok je rekao,
13:19
"They're very technically sophisticated.
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"Oni su veoma tehnički usavršeni.
13:21
They're a hundred years ahead of us with this drive."
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Sa ovim pogonom, oni su stotine godina ispred nas."
13:23
Yeah, we have an ion drive now. (Laughter)
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Jeste, mi sada imamo jonski pogon. (smeh)
13:25
We don't have the Enterprise, but
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Nemamo Enterprajz, ali
13:27
we've got an ion drive now.
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za sada imamo jon pogon.
13:29
(Applause)
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(aplauz)
13:32
Spock.
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Spok.
13:34
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
13:37
So ...
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Znači ...
13:39
that's the difference, that's the difference
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to je razlika, to je razlika
13:41
between us and the dinosaurs.
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između nas i dinosaurusa.
13:43
This happened to them.
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Njima se ovo dogodilo.
13:45
It doesn't have to happen to us.
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Ali ne mora da se dogodi nama.
13:47
The difference between the dinosaurs and us
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Razlika između dinosaurusa i nas
13:50
is that we have a space program
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je da mi imamo svemirski program
13:52
and we can vote,
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i mi možemo da glasamo,
13:54
and so we can change our future.
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i možemo da promenimo našu budućnost.
13:57
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
13:58
We have the ability to change our future.
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Mi imamo sposobnost da promenimo budućnost.
14:01
65 million years from now,
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Kroz 65 miliona godina
14:03
we don't have to have our bones
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naše kosti ne moraju da
14:05
collecting dust in a museum.
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skupljaju prašinu u muzeju.
14:07
Thank you very much.
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Mnogo vam hvala.
14:09
(Applause)
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(aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Phil Plait - AstronomerPhil Plait blogs at Bad Astronomy, where he deconstructs misconceptions and explores the wonder of the universe.
Why you should listen
Phil Plait is the Bad Astronomer. Not a bad astronomer, but a blogger for Slate who debunks myths and misconceptions about astronomy -- and also writes about the beauty, wonder and importance of fundamental research.
He worked for six years on the Hubble Space Telescope, and directed public outreach for the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. He is a past president of the James Randi Educational Foundation, and was the host of Phil Plait's Bad Universe, a documentary series on the Discovery Channel.
Read more from Phil Plait in the Huffington Post's special TEDWeekends feature, "Asteroids: Getting Ready" >>
Phil Plait | Speaker | TED.com