TEDxExeter
Alan Smith: Why you should love statistics
Alan Smit (Alan Smith): Zašto bi trebalo da volite statistiku
Filmed:
Readability: 4.2
1,779,282 views
Mislite da vam dobro ide pogađanje statističkih podataka? Razmislite još jednom. Bilo da smatramo sebe osobom kojoj ide matematika ili ne, naša sposobnost da razumemo brojeve i baratamo njima je veoma ograničena, kaže stručnjak za vizualizaciju podataka Alan Smit. U ovom divnom govoru, Smit istražuje nesklad između onoga što znamo i onoga što mislimo da znamo.
Alan Smith - Data visualisation editor
Alan Smith uses interactive graphics and statistics to breathe new life into how data is presented. Full bio
Alan Smith uses interactive graphics and statistics to breathe new life into how data is presented. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
Godine 2003
00:12
Back in 2003,
0
714
3096
vlada Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva
je sprovela istraživanje.
je sprovela istraživanje.
00:15
the UK government carried out a survey.
1
3834
2509
Bilo je to istraživanje koje je merilo
nivo numeričke pismenosti
nivo numeričke pismenosti
00:19
And it was a survey that measured
levels of numeracy
levels of numeracy
2
7494
3149
u populaciji.
00:22
in the population.
3
10667
1237
Šokiralo ih je otkriće
00:23
And they were shocked to find out
4
11928
1643
da je, od svakih 100 radno sposobnih
odraslih osoba u zemlji,
odraslih osoba u zemlji,
00:25
that for every 100 working age
adults in the country,
adults in the country,
5
13595
3364
njih 47 bilo ispod prvog nivoa
numeričke pismenosti.
numeričke pismenosti.
00:28
47 of them lacked Level 1 numeracy skills.
6
16983
3501
Numerička pismenost prvog nivoa -
to su niži rezultati
to su niži rezultati
00:32
Now, Level 1 numeracy skills --
that's low-end GCSE score.
that's low-end GCSE score.
7
20892
4112
potrebni za sertifikat
o srednjoškolskom obrazovanju.
o srednjoškolskom obrazovanju.
00:37
It's the ability to deal with fractions,
percentages and decimals.
percentages and decimals.
8
25410
3248
To je sposobnost baratanja razlomcima,
procentima i decimalama.
procentima i decimalama.
Ova cifra je stoga izazvala
mnogo uznemirenosti u vladi.
mnogo uznemirenosti u vladi.
00:40
So this figure prompted
a lot of hand-wringing in Whitehall.
a lot of hand-wringing in Whitehall.
9
28682
4628
Politika je izmenjena,
00:45
Policies were changed,
10
33334
1628
00:46
investments were made,
11
34986
1722
sprovedena su ulaganja,
00:48
and then they ran
the survey again in 2011.
the survey again in 2011.
12
36732
3038
a zatim su 2011. godine
ponovo sproveli istraživanje.
ponovo sproveli istraživanje.
Da li onda možete da pogodite
šta se dogodilo sa ovim brojem?
šta se dogodilo sa ovim brojem?
00:51
So can you guess
what happened to this number?
what happened to this number?
13
39794
2205
00:56
It went up to 49.
14
44021
1444
Popeo se na 49.
00:57
(Laughter)
15
45489
1449
(Smeh)
Zapravo, kada sam izveštavao
o ovoj cifri u Fajnenšel tajmsu,
o ovoj cifri u Fajnenšel tajmsu,
00:58
And in fact, when I reported
this figure in the FT,
this figure in the FT,
16
46962
2449
jedan naš čitalac se našalio i rekao:
01:01
one of our readers joked and said,
17
49435
1671
01:03
"This figure is only shocking
to 51 percent of the population."
to 51 percent of the population."
18
51130
3761
„Ova cifra je šokantna
samo za 51 odsto populacije.“
samo za 51 odsto populacije.“
(Smeh)
01:06
(Laughter)
19
54915
2286
Ipak mi se više svidela
reakcija jednog školarca
reakcija jednog školarca
01:09
But I preferred, actually,
the reaction of a schoolchild
the reaction of a schoolchild
20
57225
3157
kada sam predstavljao
ovu informaciju u jednoj školi,
ovu informaciju u jednoj školi,
01:12
when I presented
at a school this information,
at a school this information,
21
60406
3095
koji je podigao ruku i rekao:
01:15
who raised their hand and said,
22
63525
1531
„Kako znamo da i osoba
koja je smislila taj broj
koja je smislila taj broj
01:17
"How do we know that the person
who made that number
who made that number
23
65080
2516
nije jedna u tih 49 posto?“
01:19
isn't one of the 49 percent either?"
24
67620
1815
(Smeh)
01:21
(Laughter)
25
69459
1254
Dakle, očigledno je da postoji problem
sa numeričkom pismenošću,
sa numeričkom pismenošću,
01:22
So clearly, there's a numeracy issue,
26
70737
4050
jer su ovo važne životne veštine
01:26
because these are
important skills for life,
important skills for life,
27
74811
2110
i mnoge promena koje želimo
da uvedemo u ovom veku
da uvedemo u ovom veku
01:28
and a lot of the changes
that we want to introduce in this century
that we want to introduce in this century
28
76945
3867
podrazumevaju da postanemo
sigurniji sa brojevima.
sigurniji sa brojevima.
01:32
involve us becoming
more comfortable with numbers.
more comfortable with numbers.
29
80836
2441
To nije samo engleski problem.
01:35
Now, it's not just an English problem.
30
83301
1848
Organizacija za ekonomsku saradnju
i razvoj je objavila izvesne brojke
i razvoj je objavila izvesne brojke
01:37
OECD this year released some figures
looking at numeracy in young people,
looking at numeracy in young people,
31
85173
4930
posmatrajući numeričku pismenost mladih,
i predvodi SAD -
01:42
and leading the way, the USA --
32
90127
2780
približno 40 posto mladih u SAD-u
ima nizak nivo numeričke pismenosti.
ima nizak nivo numeričke pismenosti.
01:44
nearly 40 percent of young people
in the US have low numeracy.
in the US have low numeracy.
33
92931
4670
Engleska je takođe tu negde,
01:49
Now, England is there too,
34
97625
1297
ali postoji sedam zemalja OECD-a
sa brojkama iznad 20 odsto.
sa brojkama iznad 20 odsto.
01:50
but there are seven OECD countries
with figures above 20 percent.
with figures above 20 percent.
35
98946
5533
To je problem, jer ne mora da bude tako.
01:56
That is a problem,
because it doesn't have to be that way.
because it doesn't have to be that way.
36
104503
2759
Ukoliko pogledate deo
skroz na kraju ovog grafikona,
skroz na kraju ovog grafikona,
01:59
If you look at the far end of this graph,
37
107286
2008
možete videti da Holandija i Koreja
imaju jednocifrene brojeve.
imaju jednocifrene brojeve.
02:01
you can see the Netherlands and Korea
are in single figures.
are in single figures.
38
109318
2960
Dakle, definitivno postoji
problem numeričke pismenosti
problem numeričke pismenosti
02:04
So there's definitely a numeracy
problem that we want to address.
problem that we want to address.
39
112302
4416
kojim želimo da se pozabavimo.
02:09
Now, as useful as studies like these are,
40
117510
2930
Koliko god da su korisne ovakve studije,
02:12
I think we risk herding people
inadvertently into one of two categories;
inadvertently into one of two categories;
41
120464
5400
mislim da rizikujemo da nehotice
smestimo ljude u jednu od dve kategorije,
smestimo ljude u jednu od dve kategorije,
02:17
that there are two kinds of people:
42
125888
1776
da postoje dve vrste ljudi:
02:19
those people that are comfortable
with numbers, that can do numbers,
with numbers, that can do numbers,
43
127688
4349
oni kojima brojevi odgovaraju,
koji umeju sa brojevima,
koji umeju sa brojevima,
i ljudi koji ne umeju.
02:24
and the people who can't.
44
132061
2236
Ono o čemu pokušavam da govorim ovde danas
02:26
And what I'm trying
to talk about here today
to talk about here today
45
134321
2101
je da verujem da je to lažna dihotomija.
02:28
is to say that I believe
that is a false dichotomy.
that is a false dichotomy.
46
136446
3042
To nije nepromenljivo grupisanje.
02:31
It's not an immutable pairing.
47
139512
1868
Smatram da ne morate imati
užasno visok nivo numeričke pismenosti
užasno visok nivo numeričke pismenosti
02:33
I think you don't have to have
tremendously high levels of numeracy
tremendously high levels of numeracy
48
141404
3648
da bi vas inspirisali brojevi,
02:37
to be inspired by numbers,
49
145076
1728
i da to treba da bude polazna tačka
za putovanje pred nama.
za putovanje pred nama.
02:38
and that should be the starting point
to the journey ahead.
to the journey ahead.
50
146828
3109
02:42
And one of the ways in which
we can begin that journey, for me,
we can begin that journey, for me,
51
150387
4311
Jedan od načina na koje možemo
započeti to putovanje, za mene,
započeti to putovanje, za mene,
02:46
is looking at statistics.
52
154722
1726
je sagledavanje statistike.
02:48
Now, I am the first to acknowledge
that statistics has got somewhat
that statistics has got somewhat
53
156472
3495
Prvi sam koji će priznati
da statistika donekle ima
da statistika donekle ima
02:51
of an image problem.
54
159991
1318
problem sa imidžom.
02:53
(Laughter)
55
161333
1047
(Smeh)
To je deo matematike
02:54
It's the part of mathematics
56
162404
1532
koji čak ni matematičari ne vole naročito,
02:55
that even mathematicians
don't particularly like,
don't particularly like,
57
163960
3059
jer, dok se ostatak matematike
potpuno svodi na preciznost i sigurnost,
potpuno svodi na preciznost i sigurnost,
02:59
because whereas the rest of maths
is all about precision and certainty,
is all about precision and certainty,
58
167043
4012
statistika je gotovo suprotna tome.
03:03
statistics is almost the reverse of that.
59
171079
2284
03:05
But actually, I was a late convert
to the world of statistics myself.
to the world of statistics myself.
60
173793
4655
Zapravo, i sȃm sam kasno prešao
u svet statistike.
u svet statistike.
Da ste pitali moje profesore
sa osnovnih studija
sa osnovnih studija
03:10
If you'd asked my undergraduate professors
61
178472
2082
03:12
what two subjects would I be least likely
to excel in after university,
to excel in after university,
62
180578
4759
za koja dva predmeta je najmanje verovatno
da se istaknem u njima nakon univerziteta,
da se istaknem u njima nakon univerziteta,
rekli bi vam da su to statistika
i kompjutersko programiranje,
i kompjutersko programiranje,
03:17
they'd have told you statistics
and computer programming,
and computer programming,
63
185361
2767
a ipak, eto me, i uskoro ću vam pokazati
neke statističke grafike
neke statističke grafike
03:20
and yet here I am, about to show you
some statistical graphics
some statistical graphics
64
188152
2939
03:23
that I programmed.
65
191115
1202
koje sam programirao.
Šta je inspirisalo tu promenu u meni?
03:24
So what inspired that change in me?
66
192745
1755
03:26
What made me think that statistics
was actually an interesting thing?
was actually an interesting thing?
67
194524
3648
Šta me je navelo da pomislim
da je statistika zapravo nešto zanimljivo?
da je statistika zapravo nešto zanimljivo?
Radi se o tome da se statistika
zapravo odnosi na nas.
zapravo odnosi na nas.
03:30
It's really because
statistics are about us.
statistics are about us.
68
198196
2266
Ako pogledate etimologiju reči statistika,
03:32
If you look at the etymology
of the word statistics,
of the word statistics,
69
200869
2582
to je nauka bavljenja podacima
03:35
it's the science of dealing with data
70
203475
2609
o državi ili zajednici u kojoj živimo.
03:38
about the state or the community
that we live in.
that we live in.
71
206108
2430
Dakle, statistika se odnosi
na nas kao grupu,
na nas kao grupu,
03:40
So statistics are about us as a group,
72
208562
3354
a ne kao na pojedince.
03:43
not us as individuals.
73
211940
1675
Mislim da, kao društvene životinje,
03:45
And I think as social animals,
74
213639
1470
delimo fascinaciju prema načinu
na koji se kao pojedinci odnosimo
na koji se kao pojedinci odnosimo
03:47
we share this fascination about how
we as individuals relate to our groups,
we as individuals relate to our groups,
75
215133
3944
prema našim grupama,
prema nama jednakima.
prema nama jednakima.
03:51
to our peers.
76
219101
1388
Statistika je na ovaj način najmoćnija
03:52
And statistics in this way
are at their most powerful
are at their most powerful
77
220513
3110
kada nas iznenadi.
03:55
when they surprise us.
78
223647
1301
03:57
And there's been some really wonderful
surveys carried out recently
surveys carried out recently
79
225477
3207
Neka zaista divna istraživanja
je nedavno sprovela
je nedavno sprovela
organizacija Ipsos MORI
poslednjih nekoliko godina.
poslednjih nekoliko godina.
04:00
by Ipsos MORI in the last few years.
80
228708
1714
Sproveli su ispitivanje
na preko 1 000 odraslih u Britaniji
na preko 1 000 odraslih u Britaniji
04:02
They did a survey of over
1,000 adults in the UK,
1,000 adults in the UK,
81
230446
2708
04:05
and said, for every 100 people
in England and Wales,
in England and Wales,
82
233178
3780
i upitali: „Na svakih 100 osoba
u Engleskoj i Velsu,
u Engleskoj i Velsu,
04:08
how many of them are Muslim?
83
236982
1870
koliko njih su muslimani?“
04:10
Now the average answer from this survey,
84
238876
2646
Prosečan odgovor iz ovog istraživanja,
04:13
which was supposed to be representative
of the total population, was 24.
of the total population, was 24.
85
241546
3412
koji je trebalo da zastupa
celu populaciju, bio je 24.
celu populaciju, bio je 24.
04:16
That's what people thought.
86
244982
3676
To je ono što su ljudi mislili.
Britanci misle da su 24 osobe
od svakih 100 u zemlji muslimani.
od svakih 100 u zemlji muslimani.
04:20
British people think 24 out of every 100
people in the country are Muslim.
people in the country are Muslim.
87
248682
3639
04:24
Now, official figures reveal
that figure to be about five.
that figure to be about five.
88
252345
4410
Zvanične brojke otkrivaju
da je ta cifra oko pet.
da je ta cifra oko pet.
Dakle, postoji veliko odstupanje
između onoga što mislimo, naše percepcije,
između onoga što mislimo, naše percepcije,
04:29
So there's this big variation
between what we think, our perception,
between what we think, our perception,
89
257732
3987
i stvarnosti koju iznosi statistika.
04:33
and the reality as given by statistics.
90
261743
2038
Smatram da je to zanimljivo.
04:35
And I think that's interesting.
91
263805
1544
Šta bi moglo biti to što stvara
takvu pogrešnu percepciju?
takvu pogrešnu percepciju?
04:37
What could possibly be causing
that misperception?
that misperception?
92
265373
3290
Bio sam toliko oduševljen ovom studijom
04:41
And I was so thrilled with this study,
93
269212
1854
da sam počeo da iznosim pitanja
u prezentacijama, pozivao sam se na nju.
u prezentacijama, pozivao sam se na nju.
04:43
I started to take questions out
in presentations. I was referring to it.
in presentations. I was referring to it.
94
271090
3480
Održao sam prezentaciju
04:46
Now, I did a presentation
95
274594
1218
u školi za devojčice
„Sv. Pavle“ u Hamersmitu
„Sv. Pavle“ u Hamersmitu
04:47
at St. Paul's School for Girls
in Hammersmith,
in Hammersmith,
96
275836
2310
i imao sam publiku prilično sličnu ovoj,
04:50
and I had an audience rather like this,
97
278170
2140
osim što se sasvim sastojala
od devojčica viših razreda.
od devojčica viših razreda.
04:52
except it was comprised entirely
of sixth-form girls.
of sixth-form girls.
98
280334
3868
Pitao sam: „Devojke,
04:56
And I said, "Girls,
99
284226
2396
šta mislite, koliko tinejdžerki
britanska javnost smatra
britanska javnost smatra
04:59
how many teenage girls do you think
the British public think
the British public think
100
287598
4543
da zatrudni svake godine?“
05:04
get pregnant every year?"
101
292165
1748
Šokirale su se kada sam rekao
05:05
And the girls were apoplectic when I said
102
293937
2676
05:09
the British public think that 15
out of every 100 teenage girls
out of every 100 teenage girls
103
297453
3913
da britanska javnost misli
da 15 od svakih 100 tinejdžerki
da 15 od svakih 100 tinejdžerki
zatrudni svake godine.
05:13
get pregnant in the year.
104
301390
1293
Imale su svako pravo da budu ljute,
05:15
And they had every right to be angry,
105
303429
2231
jer sam zapravo morao
da se približim za 200 tački
da se približim za 200 tački
05:17
because in fact, I'd have to have
closer to 200 dots
closer to 200 dots
106
305684
2758
da bih obojio jednu,
05:20
before I could color one in,
107
308466
1570
shodno onome što nam govore
zvanični brojevi.
zvanični brojevi.
05:22
in terms of what
the official figures tell us.
the official figures tell us.
108
310060
2515
Baš kao i sa numeričkom pismenošću,
ovo nije samo engleski problem.
ovo nije samo engleski problem.
05:24
And rather like numeracy,
this is not just an English problem.
this is not just an English problem.
109
312599
3800
Ipsos MORI je proširio istraživanje
širom sveta poslednjih godina.
širom sveta poslednjih godina.
05:28
Ipsos MORI expanded the survey
in recent years to go across the world.
in recent years to go across the world.
110
316423
4504
Tako, kada su upitali Saudijske Arape:
05:32
And so, they asked Saudi Arabians,
111
320951
2950
„Na svakih 100 odraslih osoba
u vašoj zemlji,
u vašoj zemlji,
05:35
for every 100 adults in your country,
112
323925
2521
koliko njih je
prekomerne težine ili gojazno?“
prekomerne težine ili gojazno?“
05:38
how many of them are overweight or obese?
113
326470
2873
Prosečan odgovor Saudijskih Arapa
bio je nešto više od četvrtine.
bio je nešto više od četvrtine.
05:42
And the average answer from the Saudis
was just over a quarter.
was just over a quarter.
114
330526
5333
To su mislili.
05:48
That's what they thought.
115
336402
1202
Tek nešto više od četvrtine odraslih
je prekomerne težine ili gojazno.
je prekomerne težine ili gojazno.
05:49
Just over a quarter of adults
are overweight or obese.
are overweight or obese.
116
337628
2568
05:52
The official figures show, actually,
it's nearer to three-quarters.
it's nearer to three-quarters.
117
340220
4781
Zvanične cifre zapravo pokazuju
da je taj broj bliži tri četvrtine.
da je taj broj bliži tri četvrtine.
(Smeh)
05:57
(Laughter)
118
345025
1456
05:58
So again, a big variation.
119
346505
2292
Dakle, još jednom, veliko odstupanje.
06:00
And I love this one: they asked in Japan,
they asked the Japanese,
they asked the Japanese,
120
348821
4446
Obožavam ovu - pitali su u Japanu,
postavili su pitanje Japancima:
postavili su pitanje Japancima:
„Na svakih 100 japanskih stanovnika,
06:05
for every 100 Japanese people,
121
353291
1960
koliko njih živi u ruralnim područjima?“
06:07
how many of them live in rural areas?
122
355275
2601
06:10
The average was about a 50-50 split,
just over halfway.
just over halfway.
123
358521
4901
Prosek je bio podela na 50-50,
nešto više od polovine.
nešto više od polovine.
Mislili su da 56 od svakih 100 Japanaca
živi u ruralnim područjima.
živi u ruralnim područjima.
06:15
They thought 56 out of every 100
Japanese people lived in rural areas.
Japanese people lived in rural areas.
124
363446
4147
Zvanična cifra je sedam.
06:19
The official figure is seven.
125
367617
1687
Dakle, izuzetna odstupanja
i iznenađujuća za neke,
i iznenađujuća za neke,
06:22
So extraordinary variations,
and surprising to some,
and surprising to some,
126
370259
4450
ali ne iznenađuju ljude
koji su pročitali delo
koji su pročitali delo
06:26
but not surprising to people
who have read the work
who have read the work
127
374733
2389
Danijela Kanemana, na primer,
ekonomiste i dobitnika Nobelove nagrade.
ekonomiste i dobitnika Nobelove nagrade.
06:29
of Daniel Kahneman, for example,
the Nobel-winning economist.
the Nobel-winning economist.
128
377146
4392
On i njegov kolega Amos Tverski
proveli su godine istražujući razdor
proveli su godine istražujući razdor
06:33
He and his colleague, Amos Tversky,
spent years researching this disjoint
spent years researching this disjoint
129
381562
5092
između onog što ljudi opažaju i realnosti,
06:38
between what people perceive
and the reality,
and the reality,
130
386678
3145
činjenicu da su ljudi zapravo
prilično loši intuitivni statističari.
prilično loši intuitivni statističari.
06:41
the fact that people are actually
pretty poor intuitive statisticians.
pretty poor intuitive statisticians.
131
389847
3751
Postoji mnogo razloga za to.
06:45
And there are many reasons for this.
132
393622
1760
Individualna iskustva, naravno,
mogu uticati na našu percepciju,
mogu uticati na našu percepciju,
06:47
Individual experiences, certainly,
can influence our perceptions,
can influence our perceptions,
133
395406
3115
ali i mediji koji izveštavaju
o stvarima koje su izuzeci,
o stvarima koje su izuzeci,
06:50
but so, too, can things like the media
reporting things by exception,
reporting things by exception,
134
398545
3958
češće nego o onome što je normalno.
06:54
rather than what's normal.
135
402527
1696
Kaneman je imao fin način
da govori o tome.
da govori o tome.
06:56
Kahneman had a nice way
of referring to that.
of referring to that.
136
404855
2126
Rekao je: „Možemo biti slepi
za očigledno“ -
za očigledno“ -
06:59
He said, "We can be blind
to the obvious" --
to the obvious" --
137
407005
2085
dakle, grešimo u brojevima -
07:01
so we've got the numbers wrong --
138
409114
1638
„ali možemo biti slepi
za naše slepilo u vezi sa time.“
za naše slepilo u vezi sa time.“
07:02
"but we can be blind
to our blindness about it."
to our blindness about it."
139
410776
2322
A to ima ogromne posledice
za donošenje odluka.
za donošenje odluka.
07:05
And that has enormous
repercussions for decision making.
repercussions for decision making.
140
413122
3266
U statističkoj kancelariji,
dok se sve ovo dešavalo,
dok se sve ovo dešavalo,
07:08
So at the statistics office
while this was all going on,
while this was all going on,
141
416412
2852
mislio sam da je to zaista zanimljivo.
07:11
I thought this was really interesting.
142
419288
1912
Rekoh, ovo je očigledno globalni problem,
07:13
I said, this is clearly a global problem,
143
421224
2010
ali možda geografija
ovde predstavlja problem.
ovde predstavlja problem.
07:15
but maybe geography is the issue here.
144
423258
2435
Sva ta pitanja su se odnosila
na to koliko dobro poznajete svoju zemlju.
na to koliko dobro poznajete svoju zemlju.
07:17
These were questions that were all about,
how well do you know your country?
how well do you know your country?
145
425717
3909
U ovom slučaju, to je koliko dobro
poznajete 64 miliona ljudi.
poznajete 64 miliona ljudi.
07:21
So in this case, it's how well
do you know 64 million people?
do you know 64 million people?
146
429650
3993
Ne baš dobro, ispostavilo se.
Ne umem ja to.
Ne umem ja to.
07:25
Not very well, it turns out.
I can't do that.
I can't do that.
147
433667
2732
Stoga sam dobio ideju,
07:28
So I had an idea,
148
436423
1324
a to je bilo da razmišljam
o istoj ovakvoj vrsti pristupa,
o istoj ovakvoj vrsti pristupa,
07:29
which was to think about
this same sort of approach
this same sort of approach
149
437771
3123
ali da razmišljam o njemu
u vrlo lokalnom smislu.
u vrlo lokalnom smislu.
07:32
but to think about it
in a very local sense.
in a very local sense.
150
440918
2105
Da li je ovo lokalno?
07:35
Is this a local?
151
443047
1191
Ako preformulišemo pitanje i kažemo
07:36
If we reframe the questions and say,
152
444262
1941
koliko dobro poznajete
svoje lokalno područje,
svoje lokalno područje,
07:38
how well do you know your local area,
153
446227
2122
da li će odgovori biti išta tačniji?
07:40
would your answers be any more accurate?
154
448373
2103
07:43
So I devised a quiz:
155
451817
1762
Tako sam osmislio kviz
07:45
How well do you know your area?
156
453603
1859
koliko dobro poznajete svoj kraj.
07:48
It's a simple Web app.
157
456454
1889
To je jednostavna veb-aplikacija.
07:50
You put in a post code
158
458367
1183
Unesete poštanski broj
07:51
and then it will ask you questions
based on census data
based on census data
159
459574
2707
i zatim vam postavlja pitanja
na osnovu popisnih podataka
na osnovu popisnih podataka
07:54
for your local area.
160
462305
1539
za vašu lokalnu teritoriju.
07:56
And I was very conscious
in designing this.
in designing this.
161
464305
2123
Veoma sam promišljeno ovo dizajnirao.
07:58
I wanted to make it open
to the widest possible range of people,
to the widest possible range of people,
162
466452
4109
Želeo sam da je učinim otvorenom
za najširi mogući opseg ljudi,
za najširi mogući opseg ljudi,
ne samo za 49 posto
koji mogu da pogode projeve.
koji mogu da pogode projeve.
08:02
not just the 49 percent
who can get the numbers.
who can get the numbers.
163
470585
2828
Želeo sam da se svi pozabave njome.
08:05
I wanted everyone to engage with it.
164
473437
1755
Pri dizajnu kviza,
08:07
So for the design of the quiz,
165
475216
1525
bio sam inspirisan izotipovima
08:08
I was inspired by the isotypes
166
476765
3615
Ota Nojrata iz '20-ih i '30-ih godina.
08:12
of Otto Neurath from the 1920s and '30s.
167
480404
2602
To su metode predstavljanja brojeva
08:15
Now, these are methods
for representing numbers
for representing numbers
168
483030
4348
korišćenjem ponavljanja ikona.
08:19
using repeating icons.
169
487402
1773
08:21
And the numbers are there,
but they sit in the background.
but they sit in the background.
170
489640
3165
Brojevi su tu, ali sede u pozadini.
08:24
So it's a great way
of representing quantity
of representing quantity
171
492829
2723
Zato je to sjajan način
predstavljanja količine
predstavljanja količine
bez pribegavanja korišćenju termina
kao što su „procenat“,
kao što su „procenat“,
08:27
without resorting to using terms
like "percentage,"
like "percentage,"
172
495576
2984
„razlomci“ i „razmera“.
08:30
"fractions" and "ratios."
173
498584
1230
Evo kviza.
08:31
So here's the quiz.
174
499838
1702
08:34
The layout of the quiz is,
175
502310
1647
Postavka kviza je takva
da imate ikonice koje se ponavljaju
tu na levoj strani
tu na levoj strani
08:35
you have your repeating icons
on the left-hand side there,
on the left-hand side there,
176
503981
2819
i mapu koja vam pokazuje oblast
o kojoj vam postavljamo pitanja
o kojoj vam postavljamo pitanja
08:38
and a map showing you the area
we're asking you questions about
we're asking you questions about
177
506824
3123
na desnoj strani.
08:41
on the right-hand side.
178
509971
1167
Postoji sedam pitanja.
08:43
There are seven questions.
179
511162
1281
Za svako pitanje je moguć odgovor
između nule i stotine,
između nule i stotine,
08:44
Each question, there's a possible answer
between zero and a hundred,
between zero and a hundred,
180
512467
3893
a na kraju kviza dobijate
ukupan rezultat između nule i stotine.
ukupan rezultat između nule i stotine.
08:48
and at the end of the quiz,
181
516384
1349
08:49
you get an overall score
between zero and a hundred.
between zero and a hundred.
182
517757
3218
A pošto je ovo TEDxExeter,
08:52
And so because this is TEDxExeter,
183
520999
2084
mislio sam da bacimo pogled na kviz
08:55
I thought we would have
a quick look at the quiz
a quick look at the quiz
184
523107
2325
za prvih nekoliko pitanja o Egzeteru.
08:57
for the first few questions of Exeter.
185
525456
2309
Tako je prvo pitanje:
08:59
And so the first question is:
186
527789
1405
„Na svakih 100 ljudi,
koliko njih je uzrasta ispod 16 godina?“
koliko njih je uzrasta ispod 16 godina?“
09:01
For every 100 people,
how many are aged under 16?
how many are aged under 16?
187
529218
2992
09:04
Now, I don't know Exeter very well
at all, so I had a guess at this,
at all, so I had a guess at this,
188
532784
3600
Ja uopšte ne poznajem dobro Egzeter,
pa sam morao da pogađam,
pa sam morao da pogađam,
ali daje vam predstavu
o tome kako ovaj kviz funkcioniše.
o tome kako ovaj kviz funkcioniše.
09:08
but it gives you an idea
of how this quiz works.
of how this quiz works.
189
536408
2561
09:10
You drag the slider
to highlight your icons,
to highlight your icons,
190
538993
3706
Prevučete klizač
da biste označili svoje ikonice,
da biste označili svoje ikonice,
zatim samo kliknete „pošalji“
da biste odgovorili,
da biste odgovorili,
09:14
and then just click "Submit" to answer,
191
542723
2235
09:16
and we animate away the difference
between your answer and reality.
between your answer and reality.
192
544982
3663
i napravimo animaciju razlike
između vašeg odgovora i stvarnosti.
između vašeg odgovora i stvarnosti.
09:20
And it turns out, I was a pretty
terrible guess: five.
terrible guess: five.
193
548669
4075
Ispostavilo se da sam dao
prilično lošu pretpostavku: pet.
prilično lošu pretpostavku: pet.
09:25
How about the next question?
194
553149
1424
A sledeće pitanje?
Ono pita koji je prosečni uzrast,
09:26
This is asking about
what the average age is,
what the average age is,
195
554597
2156
dakle, uzrast od koga je polovina
populacije mlađa,
populacije mlađa,
09:28
so the age at which half
the population are younger
the population are younger
196
556777
2445
a polovina populacije je starija.
09:31
and half the population are older.
197
559246
1674
Pomislio sam da je 35 -
to mi zvuči sredovečno.
to mi zvuči sredovečno.
09:32
And I thought 35 -- that sounds
middle-aged to me.
middle-aged to me.
198
560944
3350
09:36
(Laughter)
199
564318
1443
(Smeh)
Zapravo, u Egzeteru,
to su neverovatno mlade godine,
to su neverovatno mlade godine,
09:40
Actually, in Exeter,
it's incredibly young,
it's incredibly young,
200
568206
2106
09:42
and I had underestimated the impact
of the university in this area.
of the university in this area.
201
570336
4538
a ja sam potcenio uticaj
univerziteta u ovoj oblasti.
univerziteta u ovoj oblasti.
Pitanja postaju sve teža
dok prolazite kroz njih.
dok prolazite kroz njih.
09:46
The questions get harder
as you go through.
as you go through.
202
574898
2031
09:48
So this one's now asking
about homeownership:
about homeownership:
203
576953
2383
Ovo pita o vlasništvu nad kućama.
09:51
For every 100 households, how many
are owned with a mortgage or loan?
are owned with a mortgage or loan?
204
579955
3699
Od svakih 100 domaćinstava,
koliko njih je u posedu
uz hipoteku ili kredit?
uz hipoteku ili kredit?
Ovde sam se ograničio ulog,
09:55
And I hedged my bets here,
205
583678
1280
zato što nisam hteo
da omašim odgovor za više od 50.
da omašim odgovor za više od 50.
09:56
because I didn't want to be
more than 50 out on the answer.
more than 50 out on the answer.
206
584982
3098
(Smeh)
10:00
(Laughter)
207
588104
2020
Zapravo, pitanja postaju teža
10:02
And actually, these get harder,
these questions,
these questions,
208
590148
2466
jer kada ste u nekom okruženju,
kada ste u nekoj zajednici,
kada ste u nekoj zajednici,
10:04
because when you're in an area,
when you're in a community,
when you're in a community,
209
592638
2859
stvari poput godina - postoje naznake
da li je stanovništvo mlado ili staro.
da li je stanovništvo mlado ili staro.
10:07
things like age -- there are clues
to whether a population is old or young.
to whether a population is old or young.
210
595521
5250
Možete to videti samo razgledajući oblast.
10:12
Just by looking around
the area, you can see it.
the area, you can see it.
211
600795
2345
Nešto poput vlasništva nad kućama
je mnogo teže videti,
je mnogo teže videti,
10:15
Something like homeownership
is much more difficult to see,
is much more difficult to see,
212
603164
3391
pa se okrećemo svojim heuristicima,
10:18
so we revert to our own heuristics,
213
606579
2608
sopstvenim pristrasnostima
10:21
our own biases about how many people
we think own their own homes.
we think own their own homes.
214
609211
4451
o tome koliko ljudi mislimo
da poseduje svoje domove.
da poseduje svoje domove.
Istina, kada smo objavili ova kviz,
10:25
Now the truth is,
when we published this quiz,
when we published this quiz,
215
613686
3650
popisni podaci na kojima je zasnovan
bili su već stari nekoliko godina.
bili su već stari nekoliko godina.
10:29
the census data that it's based on
was already a few years old.
was already a few years old.
216
617360
3536
Imali smo onlajn aplikaciju
koja omogućava da unesete poštanski broj
koja omogućava da unesete poštanski broj
10:32
We've had online applications
that allow you to put in a post code
that allow you to put in a post code
217
620920
3569
i dobijete statistiku godinama unazad.
10:36
and get statistics back for years.
218
624513
2094
Prema tome, na neki način,
10:38
So in some senses,
219
626631
1189
ovo je bilo pomalo zastarelo
i ne nužno novo.
i ne nužno novo.
10:39
this was all a little bit old
and not necessarily new.
and not necessarily new.
220
627844
3549
Ali me je interesovalo da vidim
kakvu reakciju bismo mogli dobiti
kakvu reakciju bismo mogli dobiti
10:43
But I was interested to see
what reaction we might get
what reaction we might get
221
631417
3639
pretvaranjem podataka u igru
na način na koji smo to postigli,
na način na koji smo to postigli,
10:47
by game-ifying the data
in the way that we have,
in the way that we have,
222
635080
2717
korišćenjem animacije
10:49
by using animation
223
637821
1407
i poigravanjem činjenicom da ljudi
imaju sopstvena predubeđenja.
imaju sopstvena predubeđenja.
10:51
and playing on the fact
that people have their own preconceptions.
that people have their own preconceptions.
224
639252
3748
10:55
It turns out, the reaction was, um ...
225
643508
3583
Ispostavilo se da je reakcija
11:00
was more than I could have hoped for.
226
648328
1928
bila veća nego što sam se nadao.
11:02
It was a long-held ambition of mine
to bring down a statistics website
to bring down a statistics website
227
650280
3381
Dugo je bila moja ambicija
da srušim statistički veb-sajt
da srušim statistički veb-sajt
zbog potražnje javnosti.
11:05
due to public demand.
228
653685
1408
11:07
(Laughter)
229
655117
1800
(Smeh)
11:08
This URL contains the words
"statistics," "gov" and "UK,"
"statistics," "gov" and "UK,"
230
656941
3464
Ova veb-adresa sadrži reči
„statistika“, „gov“ i „uk“,
„statistika“, „gov“ i „uk“,
što su tri najmanje omiljene reči
u jednoj veb-adresi.
u jednoj veb-adresi.
11:12
which are three of people's least
favorite words in a URL.
favorite words in a URL.
231
660429
3242
Iznenađujuće je da je veb-sajt pao
11:15
And the amazing thing about this
was that the website came down
was that the website came down
232
663695
3985
11:19
at quarter to 10 at night,
233
667704
2093
u 15 do 10 noću,
11:21
because people were actually
engaging with this data
engaging with this data
234
669821
3211
jer su se ljudi zapravo bavili
ovim podacima dobrovoljno,
ovim podacima dobrovoljno,
11:25
of their own free will,
235
673056
1539
koristeći svoje lično vreme.
11:26
using their own personal time.
236
674619
2035
11:28
I was very interested to see
237
676678
2487
Bilo je veoma zanimljivo videti
da imamo oko četvrtine miliona ljudi
11:31
that we got something like
a quarter of a million people
a quarter of a million people
238
679189
3713
koji igraju kviz u okviru
od 48 sati od njegovog pokretanja.
od 48 sati od njegovog pokretanja.
11:34
playing the quiz within the space
of 48 hours of launching it.
of 48 hours of launching it.
239
682926
3272
To je izazvalo ogromne diskusije
na internetu, na društvenim medijima,
na internetu, na društvenim medijima,
11:38
And it sparked an enormous discussion
online, on social media,
online, on social media,
240
686222
3927
kojima su u velikoj meri dominirali
11:42
which was largely dominated
241
690173
2037
ljudi koji su se zabavljali
sa svojim zabludama,
sa svojim zabludama,
11:44
by people having fun
with their misconceptions,
with their misconceptions,
242
692234
3993
što je nešto najbolje
čemu sam se mogao nadati,
čemu sam se mogao nadati,
11:48
which is something that
I couldn't have hoped for any better,
I couldn't have hoped for any better,
243
696251
3059
u neku ruku.
11:51
in some respects.
244
699334
1160
Takođe mi se dopala činjenica da su ljudi
počeli da ga šalju političarima.
počeli da ga šalju političarima.
11:52
I also liked the fact that people started
sending it to politicians.
sending it to politicians.
245
700518
3226
Koliko dobro poznajete oblast
koju tvrdite da zastupate?
koju tvrdite da zastupate?
11:55
How well do you know the area
you claim to represent?
you claim to represent?
246
703768
2589
(Smeh)
11:58
(Laughter)
247
706381
1162
Potom, samo za kraj,
11:59
And then just to finish,
248
707567
1560
ako se vratim na one dve vrste ljudi,
12:01
going back to the two kinds of people,
249
709992
2330
pomislio sam da bi bilo zanimljivo videti
12:04
I thought it would be
really interesting to see
really interesting to see
250
712346
2257
kako bi ljudi kojima dobro idu brojevi
prošli na ovom kvizu.
prošli na ovom kvizu.
12:06
how people who are good with numbers
would do on this quiz.
would do on this quiz.
251
714627
2815
Za nacionalnog statističara
Engleske i Velsa, Džona Pulindžera,
Engleske i Velsa, Džona Pulindžera,
12:09
The national statistician
of England and Wales, John Pullinger,
of England and Wales, John Pullinger,
252
717466
3016
očekivali biste da će dobro proći.
12:12
you would expect he would be pretty good.
253
720506
2073
12:15
He got 44 for his own area.
254
723524
2449
Dobio je 44 za sopstveni kraj.
12:17
(Laughter)
255
725997
2468
(Smeh)
12:20
Jeremy Paxman -- admittedly,
after a glass of wine -- 36.
after a glass of wine -- 36.
256
728489
4949
Džeremi Paksmen - doduše,
posle čaše vina - 36.
posle čaše vina - 36.
Još gore.
12:26
Even worse.
257
734051
1461
12:27
It just shows you that the numbers
can inspire us all.
can inspire us all.
258
735536
3201
To vam samo pokazuje
da brojevi mogu inspirisati sve nas.
da brojevi mogu inspirisati sve nas.
12:30
They can surprise us all.
259
738761
1260
Sve nas mogu iznenaditi.
12:32
So very often, we talk about statistics
260
740045
2039
Tako veoma često govorimo o statistici
12:34
as being the science of uncertainty.
261
742108
1962
kao o nauci o nesigurnosti.
Misao sa kojom ću se danas rastati od vas
12:36
My parting thought for today is:
262
744094
1782
je da je statistika zapravo nauka o nama.
12:37
actually, statistics is the science of us.
263
745900
3035
12:40
And that's why we should
be fascinated by numbers.
be fascinated by numbers.
264
748959
2788
Zato bi trebalo da budemo
fascinirani brojevima.
fascinirani brojevima.
12:43
Thank you very much.
265
751771
1190
Mnogo vam hvala.
12:44
(Applause)
266
752985
3777
(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alan Smith - Data visualisation editorAlan Smith uses interactive graphics and statistics to breathe new life into how data is presented.
Why you should listen
Alan Smith is Data Visualisation Editor at the Financial Times in London. Previously he was Head of Digital Content at the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS).
With a background in cartography and digital mapping, he has spent the last decade finding ways of bringing statistics to wider audiences. In 2010, he was an inaugural recipient of the Royal Statistical Society's Award for Excellence in Official Statistics. He was appointed Office of the Order of the British Empire (OBE) in the Queen's 2011 Birthday Honours list.
Alan Smith | Speaker | TED.com