TEDxUGA
J. Marshall Shepherd: 3 kinds of bias that shape your worldview
Dž. Maršal Šepard (J. Marshall Shepherd): Tri vrste predrasuda koje oblikuju vaš pogled na svet
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Šta oblikuje naše percepcije (i pogrešne percepcije) o nauci? U prosvetljujućem govoru, meteorolog Dž. Maršal Šepard objašnjava kako efekat potvrđivanja, Daning-Krugerov efekat i kognitivna disonanca utiču na ono što mislimo da znamo, i iznosi ideje o tome kako to možemo zameniti nečim mnogo moćnijim: znanjem.
J. Marshall Shepherd - Meteorologist
Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd is a leading international expert in weather and climate and is the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor of Geography and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Georgia. Full bio
Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd is a leading international expert in weather and climate and is the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor of Geography and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Georgia. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm a meteorologist by degree,
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Meteorolog sam po struci,
00:14
I have a bachelor's,
master's and PhD in physical meteorology,
master's and PhD in physical meteorology,
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imam osnovne, master studije
i doktorat iz fizičke meteorologije,
i doktorat iz fizičke meteorologije,
00:17
so I'm a meteorologist, card carrying.
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dakle, meteorolog, zvanično.
00:20
And so with that comes
four questions, always.
four questions, always.
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Uz to uvek idu četiri pitanja.
00:25
This is one prediction
I will always get right.
I will always get right.
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To je jedino što uvek pogodim.
00:27
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:29
And those questions are,
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A ta pitanja su:
00:31
"Marshall, what channel are you on?"
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„Maršale, na kom si kanalu?“
00:34
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:36
"Dr. Shepherd, what's the weather
going to be tomorrow?"
going to be tomorrow?"
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„Dr Šepard, kakvo će vreme biti sutra?“
00:38
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:39
And oh, I love this one:
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I da, ovo obožavam:
00:41
"My daughter is getting married
next September, it's an outdoor wedding.
next September, it's an outdoor wedding.
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„Moja ćerka se udaje sledećeg septembra,
biće venčanje na otvorenom.
biće venčanje na otvorenom.
Hoće li padati kiša?“
00:45
Is it going to rain?"
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00:46
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:47
Not kidding, I get those,
and I don't know the answer to that,
and I don't know the answer to that,
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Bez šale, dobijam ta pitanja,
i ne znam odgovore na njih,
i ne znam odgovore na njih,
00:50
the science isn't there.
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tu nema nauke.
00:53
But the one I get a lot these days is,
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Ali jedno koje mi ovih dana
često upućuju je:
često upućuju je:
00:56
"Dr. Shepherd, do you believe
in climate change?"
in climate change?"
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„Dr Šepard, da li verujete
u klimatske promene?“
u klimatske promene?“
01:01
"Do you believe in global warming?"
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„Da li verujete u globalno zagrevanje?“
01:04
Now, I have to gather myself
every time I get that question.
every time I get that question.
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Svaki put kad čujem to pitanje
moram da se priberem.
moram da se priberem.
01:08
Because it's an ill-posed question --
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Zato što je pogrešno postavljeno pitanje -
nauka nije sistem verovanja.
nauka nije sistem verovanja.
01:10
science isn't a belief system.
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01:12
My son, he's 10 --
he believes in the tooth fairy.
he believes in the tooth fairy.
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Moj sin, koji ima 10 godina,
veruje u Zubić vilu.
veruje u Zubić vilu.
01:16
And he needs to get over that,
because I'm losing dollars, fast.
because I'm losing dollars, fast.
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I to mora da prevaziđe,
jer ubrzano gubim dolare.
jer ubrzano gubim dolare.
01:20
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:22
But he believes in the tooth fairy.
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Ali on veruje u Zubić vilu.
01:24
But consider this.
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Razmislite o ovome.
01:27
Bank of America building,
there, in Atlanta.
there, in Atlanta.
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Ova zgrada Banke Amerike
se nalazi u Atlanti.
se nalazi u Atlanti.
01:29
You never hear anyone say,
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Nikada ne čujete da neko kaže:
01:32
"Do you believe, if you go
to the top of that building
to the top of that building
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„Verujete li, ako se popnete
na vrh te zgrade
na vrh te zgrade
01:35
and throw a ball off, it's going to fall?"
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i bacite loptu, da će ona pasti?“
01:37
You never hear that,
because gravity is a thing.
because gravity is a thing.
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To nikad ne čujete,
jer gravitacija je nepobitna stvar.
jer gravitacija je nepobitna stvar.
01:42
So why don't we hear the question,
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Pa zašto ne čujemo pitanje:
01:44
"Do you believe in gravity?"
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„Da li verujete u gravitaciju?“
01:46
But of course, we hear the question,
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Ali naravno da čujemo pitanje:
01:48
"Do you believe in global warming?"
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„Da li verujete u globalno zagrevanje?“
01:52
Well, consider these facts.
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Pa, razmotrite ove činjenice.
01:55
The American Association
for the Advancement of Science, AAAS,
for the Advancement of Science, AAAS,
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Američko udruženje za razvoj nauke, AAAS,
01:58
one of the leading
organizations in science,
organizations in science,
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jedna od vodećih naučnih organizacija,
02:01
queried scientists and the public
on different science topics.
on different science topics.
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ispitivalo je naučnike i javnost
o različitim naučnim temama.
o različitim naučnim temama.
02:05
Here are some of them:
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Evo nekih od njih:
02:06
genetically modified food,
animal research, human evolution.
animal research, human evolution.
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genetski modifikovana hrana, istraživanja
na životinjama, evolucija ljudi.
na životinjama, evolucija ljudi.
02:11
And look at what the scientists
say about those,
say about those,
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Pogledajte šta naučnici
kažu u vezi sa njima,
kažu u vezi sa njima,
02:14
the people that actually
study those topics, in red,
study those topics, in red,
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ljudi koji zaista izučavaju te teme,
označeno crvenom bojom,
označeno crvenom bojom,
02:16
versus the gray, what the public thinks.
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naspram sive, onoga što javnost misli.
02:19
How did we get there?
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Kako smo stigli ovde?
02:21
How did we get there?
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Kako smo stigli ovde?
02:24
That scientists and the public
are so far apart on these science issues.
are so far apart on these science issues.
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Da su naučnici i javnost toliko udaljeni
u pogledu ovih naučnih pitanja.
u pogledu ovih naučnih pitanja.
02:29
Well, I'll come a little bit
closer to home for me,
closer to home for me,
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Pa, vratiću se malo bliže svojoj temi,
02:31
climate change.
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klimatskim promenama.
02:33
Eighty-seven percent of scientists
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Osamdeset sedam posto naučnika
02:36
believe that humans are contributing
to climate change.
to climate change.
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veruje da ljudi doprinose
klimatskim promenama.
klimatskim promenama.
02:41
But only 50 percent of the public?
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Ali samo 50 posto javnosti?
02:45
How did we get there?
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Kako smo stigli ovde?
02:46
So it begs the question,
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Ovo pokreće pitanje
02:48
what shapes perceptions about science?
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šta oblikuje stavove o nauci?
02:54
It's an interesting question
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To je zanimljivo pitanje
02:56
and one that I've been
thinking about quite a bit.
thinking about quite a bit.
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o kome sam poprilično razmišljao.
03:00
I think that one thing that shapes
perceptions in the public, about science,
perceptions in the public, about science,
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Mislim da je ono što oblikuje
stavove o nauci u javnosti
stavove o nauci u javnosti
03:05
is belief systems and biases.
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sistem uverenja i predrasude.
Sistemi verovanja i predrasude.
03:08
Belief systems and biases.
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03:09
Go with me for a moment.
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Priklonite mi se na trenutak.
03:12
Because I want to talk
about three elements of that:
about three elements of that:
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Jer želim da govorim
o trima elementima toga:
o trima elementima toga:
efektu potvrđivanja,
Daning-Krugerovom efektu
Daning-Krugerovom efektu
03:14
confirmation bias, Dunning-Kruger effect
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03:18
and cognitive dissonance.
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i kognitivnoj disonanci.
03:20
Now, these sound like big, fancy,
academic terms, and they are.
academic terms, and they are.
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Zvuče kao glomazni, fensi,
akademski termini, a i jesu.
akademski termini, a i jesu.
03:24
But when I describe them,
you're going to be like, "Oh!
you're going to be like, "Oh!
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Ali kada vam ih opišem,
reći ćete: „Oh!
reći ćete: „Oh!
03:28
I recognize that; I even know
somebody that does that."
somebody that does that."
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Prepoznajem to; čak i znam
nekog ko to radi.“
nekog ko to radi.“
03:33
Confirmation bias.
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Efekat potvrđivanja.
03:36
Finding evidence that supports
what we already believe.
what we already believe.
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Pronalaženje dokaza koji podržavaju
ono u šta već verujemo.
ono u šta već verujemo.
03:40
Now, we're probably all
a little bit guilty of that at times.
a little bit guilty of that at times.
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Verovatno za ovo svi mi
nekad pomalo snosimo krivicu.
nekad pomalo snosimo krivicu.
03:45
Take a look at this.
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Pogledajte ovo.
03:46
I'm on Twitter.
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Ja sam na Tviteru.
03:48
And often, when it snows,
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Često, kada pada sneg,
03:50
I'll get this tweet back to me.
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dobijem ovaj tvit.
03:52
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:55
"Hey, Dr. Shepherd, I have 20 inches
of global warming in my yard,
of global warming in my yard,
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„Hej, dr Šepard, imam pola metra
globalnog zagrevanja u dvorištu,
globalnog zagrevanja u dvorištu,
03:58
what are you guys
talking about, climate change?"
talking about, climate change?"
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o čemu vi to govorite,
o klimatskim promenama?“
o klimatskim promenama?“
04:01
I get that tweet a lot, actually.
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Zapravo, često mi stiže taj tvit.
04:04
It's a cute tweet,
it makes me chuckle as well.
it makes me chuckle as well.
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To je simpatičan tvit, a i nasmeje me.
04:07
But it's oh, so fundamentally
scientifically flawed.
scientifically flawed.
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Ali je toliko suštinski naučno pogrešan.
04:12
Because it illustrates
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Jer ilustruje
04:13
that the person tweeting
doesn't understand
doesn't understand
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da osoba koja tvituje ne razume
04:15
the difference
between weather and climate.
between weather and climate.
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razliku između vremena i klime.
04:19
I often say, weather is your mood
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Često kažem da je vreme vaše raspoloženje,
04:23
and climate is your personality.
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a klima je vaša ličnost.
04:26
Think about that.
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Razmislite o tome.
04:28
Weather is your mood,
climate is your personality.
climate is your personality.
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Vreme je vaše raspoloženje,
a klima je vaša ličnost.
a klima je vaša ličnost.
04:30
Your mood today doesn't necessarily
tell me anything about your personality,
tell me anything about your personality,
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Vaše današnje raspoloženje
mi ne govori ništa o vašoj ličnosti,
mi ne govori ništa o vašoj ličnosti,
04:34
nor does a cold day tell me anything
about climate change,
about climate change,
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kao što mi hladan dan
ne govori ništa o klimatskim promenama,
ne govori ništa o klimatskim promenama,
04:37
or a hot day, for that matter.
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kao ni vreli dan, štaviše.
04:41
Dunning-Kruger.
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Daning-Kruger.
Dva naučnika sa Univerziteta Kornel
su došla do Daning-Krugerovog efekta.
su došla do Daning-Krugerovog efekta.
04:43
Two scholars from Cornell
came up with the Dunning-Kruger effect.
came up with the Dunning-Kruger effect.
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04:46
If you go look up
the peer-reviewed paper for this,
the peer-reviewed paper for this,
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Ako potražite recenzirani članak o tome,
04:49
you will see all kinds
of fancy terminology:
of fancy terminology:
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videćete raznoraznu
prefinjenu terminologiju:
prefinjenu terminologiju:
04:51
it's an illusory superiority complex,
thinking we know things.
thinking we know things.
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to je iluzorni kompleks superiornosti,
kada mislimo da znamo nešto.
kada mislimo da znamo nešto.
04:55
In other words, people think
they know more than they do.
they know more than they do.
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Drugim rečima, ljudi misle
da znaju više nego što zaista znaju.
da znaju više nego što zaista znaju.
04:59
Or they underestimate
what they don't know.
what they don't know.
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Ili potcenjuju ono što ne znaju.
05:02
And then, there's cognitive dissonance.
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Potom, tu je kognitivna disonanca.
05:06
Cognitive dissonance is interesting.
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Kognitivna disonanca je zanimljiva.
05:09
We just recently had Groundhog Day, right?
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Nedavno je bio Dan mrmota, je l' da?
05:13
Now, there's no better definition
of cognitive dissonance
of cognitive dissonance
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Nema bolje definicije kognitivne disonance
05:15
than intelligent people asking me
if a rodent's forecast is accurate.
if a rodent's forecast is accurate.
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nego kada me inteligentni ljudi pitaju
da li je prognoza glodara tačna.
da li je prognoza glodara tačna.
05:19
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:22
But I get that, all of the time.
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Ali i to me stalno pitaju.
05:24
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:26
But I also hear
about the Farmer's Almanac.
about the Farmer's Almanac.
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Ali takođe čujem
i o „Farmerovom almanahu“.
i o „Farmerovom almanahu“.
05:29
We grew up on the Farmer's Almanac,
people are familiar with it.
people are familiar with it.
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Odrasli smo uz "Farmerov almanah",
ljudi znaju za njega.
ljudi znaju za njega.
05:34
The problem is, it's only
about 37 percent accurate,
about 37 percent accurate,
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Problem je u tome što je tačan samo 37%,
05:37
according to studies
at Penn State University.
at Penn State University.
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prema istraživanjima
sa Državnog univerziteta Pensilvanije.
sa Državnog univerziteta Pensilvanije.
05:43
But we're in an era of science
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Ali nalazimo se u vremenu nauke
05:47
where we actually
can forecast the weather.
can forecast the weather.
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u kome zaista možemo da predvidimo vreme.
Verovali ili ne, a znam da neki
među vama misle „Da, kako da ne,“
među vama misle „Da, kako da ne,“
05:49
And believe it or not, and I know
some of you are like, "Yeah, right,"
some of you are like, "Yeah, right,"
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imamo 90% i veću tačnost
vremenske prognoze.
vremenske prognoze.
05:52
we're about 90 percent accurate, or more,
with weather forecast.
with weather forecast.
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Samo ste skloni da upamtite
povremene promašaje, jeste.
povremene promašaje, jeste.
05:55
You just tend to remember
the occasional miss, you do.
the occasional miss, you do.
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05:58
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:02
So confirmation bias,
Dunning-Kruger and cognitive dissonance.
Dunning-Kruger and cognitive dissonance.
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Dakle, efekat potvrđivanja,
Daning-Kruger i kognitivna disonanca.
Daning-Kruger i kognitivna disonanca.
06:05
I think those shape biases and perceptions
that people have about science.
that people have about science.
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Mislim da oni oblikuju pristrasnosti
i stavove koje ljudi imaju o nauci.
i stavove koje ljudi imaju o nauci.
06:11
But then, there's literacy
and misinformation
and misinformation
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No, uz to, tu je pismenost
i dezinformacije
i dezinformacije
06:13
that keep us boxed in, as well.
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koje nas takođe drže u određenim okvirima.
06:17
During the hurricane season of 2017,
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Za vreme sezone uragana 2017. godine,
06:20
media outlets had to actually
assign reporters
assign reporters
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mediji su morali da zadužuju novinare
06:24
to dismiss fake information
about the weather forecast.
about the weather forecast.
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da odbacuju lažne informacije
o vremenskoj prognozi.
o vremenskoj prognozi.
06:30
That's the era that we're in.
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U takvom vremenu se nalazimo.
06:32
I deal with this all the time
in social media.
in social media.
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Time se stalno bavim
na društvenim mrežama.
na društvenim mrežama.
06:35
Someone will tweet a forecast --
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Neko će tvitovati prognozu -
06:36
that's a forecast for Hurricane Irma,
but here's the problem:
but here's the problem:
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to je prognoza za uragan Irmu,
ali evo u čemu je problem:
ali evo u čemu je problem:
06:39
it didn't come from the Hurricane Center.
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ona nije došla iz Uraganskog centra.
06:42
But people were tweeting
and sharing this; it went viral.
and sharing this; it went viral.
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Ali ljudi su to tvitovali
i delili, i proširilo se.
i delili, i proširilo se.
06:45
It didn't come from
the National Hurricane Center at all.
the National Hurricane Center at all.
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Uopšte nije proisteklo
iz Nacionalnog uraganskog centra.
iz Nacionalnog uraganskog centra.
06:50
So I spent 12 years of my career at NASA
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Proveo sam 12 godina svoje karijere u Nasi
pre nego što sam došao
na Univerzitet u Džordžiji,
na Univerzitet u Džordžiji,
06:52
before coming
to the University of Georgia,
to the University of Georgia,
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06:54
and I chair their Earth Science
Advisory Committee,
Advisory Committee,
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i predsedavam njihovim
Savetodavnim odborom za nauku o Zemlji,
Savetodavnim odborom za nauku o Zemlji,
06:57
I was just up there last week in DC.
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baš sam bio tamo
prošle nedelje u Vašingtonu.
prošle nedelje u Vašingtonu.
06:59
And I saw some really interesting things.
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Video sam neke vrlo zanimljive stvari.
07:01
Here's a NASA model
and science data from satellite
and science data from satellite
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Evo Nasinog modela
i naučnih podataka sa satelita
i naučnih podataka sa satelita
07:04
showing the 2017 hurricane season.
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koji pokazuju sezonu uragana 2017. godine.
07:06
You see Hurricane Harvey there?
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Vidite tamo uragan Harvi?
07:09
Look at all the dust coming off of Africa.
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Pogledajte svu tu prašinu
koja dolazi iz Afrike.
koja dolazi iz Afrike.
07:12
Look at the wildfires up in northwest US
and in western Canada.
and in western Canada.
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Pogledajte požare u severozapadnoj Americi
i u zapadnoj Kanadi.
07:17
There comes Hurricane Irma.
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Evo uragana Irma.
07:20
This is fascinating to me.
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Ovo je za mene fascinantno.
07:23
But admittedly, I'm a weather geek.
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Doduše, ja sam štreber za vreme.
07:26
But more importantly, it illustrates
that we have the technology
that we have the technology
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Ali, što je važnije, ovo ilustruje
da imamo tehnologiju
da imamo tehnologiju
07:30
to not only observe the weather
and climate system,
and climate system,
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ne samo da posmatramo vreme
i klimatski sistem,
i klimatski sistem,
07:33
but predict it.
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već i da predviđamo.
07:34
There's scientific understanding,
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To je naučno razumevanje,
07:36
so there's no need for some
of those perceptions and biases
of those perceptions and biases
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dakle, nema potrebe
za onim stavovima i predrasudama
za onim stavovima i predrasudama
07:39
that we've been talking about.
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o kojima smo govorili.
07:41
We have knowledge.
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Imamo znanje.
07:42
But think about this ...
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Ali razmislite o sledećem...
07:43
This is Houston, Texas,
after Hurricane Harvey.
after Hurricane Harvey.
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Ovo je Hjuston u Teksasu
nakon uragana Harvija.
nakon uragana Harvija.
07:47
Now, I write a contribution
for "Forbes" magazine periodically,
for "Forbes" magazine periodically,
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Periodično pišem prilog
za časopis „Forbs“,
za časopis „Forbs“,
07:50
and I wrote an article a week before
Hurricane Harvey made landfall, saying,
Hurricane Harvey made landfall, saying,
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i napisao sam članak nedelju dana
pre nego što je uragan Harvi udario kopno,
pre nego što je uragan Harvi udario kopno,
u kome sam rekao: „Verovatno će biti
1 000 do 1 200 mm padavina.“
1 000 do 1 200 mm padavina.“
07:55
"There's probably going to be
40 to 50 inches of rainfall."
40 to 50 inches of rainfall."
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07:58
I wrote that a week before it happened.
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To sam napisao nedelju dana
pre nego što se dogodilo.
pre nego što se dogodilo.
08:01
But yet, when you talk
to people in Houston,
to people in Houston,
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Ipak, kada razgovarate
sa ljudima u Hjustonu,
sa ljudima u Hjustonu,
08:03
people are saying, "We had no idea
it was going to be this bad."
it was going to be this bad."
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oni kažu: „Nismo imali pojma
da će biti ovoliko loše.“
da će biti ovoliko loše.“
08:07
I'm just...
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Ja prosto...
08:08
(Sigh)
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(Uzdah)
08:09
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:10
A week before.
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Nedelju dana ranije.
08:11
But --
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Ali -
08:13
I know, it's amusing, but the reality is,
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znam, zabavno je, ali u stvarnosti,
08:15
we all struggle with perceiving something
outside of our experience level.
outside of our experience level.
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svi se mi mučimo sa shvatanjem nečega
što je izvan našeg iskustva.
što je izvan našeg iskustva.
08:21
People in Houston
get rain all of the time,
get rain all of the time,
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Ljudi u Hjustonu stalno imaju kišu,
08:24
they flood all of the time.
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stalno imaju poplave.
08:26
But they've never experienced that.
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Ali to nikad nisu doživeli.
08:29
Houston gets about 34 inches of rainfall
for the entire year.
for the entire year.
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Hjuston primi oko 860 mm padavina
tokom cele godine.
tokom cele godine.
08:33
They got 50 inches in three days.
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Dobili su 1 200 mm za tri dana.
08:37
That's an anomaly event,
that's outside of the normal.
that's outside of the normal.
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Taj događaj je anomalija, izvan normalnog.
Dakle, sistemi uverenja i predrasude,
pismenost i dezinformacije.
pismenost i dezinformacije.
08:42
So belief systems and biases,
literacy and misinformation.
literacy and misinformation.
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08:45
How do we step out of the boxes
that are cornering our perceptions?
that are cornering our perceptions?
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Kako da izađemo iz okvira
koji sputavaju naša opažanja?
koji sputavaju naša opažanja?
08:50
Well we don't even have to go to Houston,
we can come very close to home.
we can come very close to home.
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Pa, ne moramo ni da idemo u Hjuston,
možemo da budemo blizu kuće.
možemo da budemo blizu kuće.
08:54
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:55
Remember "Snowpocalypse?"
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Sećate se „snegopokalipse“?
08:57
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:59
Snowmageddon?
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Snegmagedona?
09:00
Snowzilla?
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Snegzile?
09:02
Whatever you want to call it.
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Kako god da nazovete.
09:04
All two inches of it.
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Od čitavih pet centimetara.
09:06
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
09:09
Two inches of snow
shut the city of Atlanta down.
shut the city of Atlanta down.
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Pet centimetara snega
je blokiralo grad Atlantu.
je blokiralo grad Atlantu.
09:11
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
09:14
But the reality is,
we were in a winter storm watch,
we were in a winter storm watch,
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Ali istina je da smo bili
u stanju pripravnosti zbog zimske oluje,
u stanju pripravnosti zbog zimske oluje,
09:19
we went to a winter weather advisory,
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davali smo savete zbog zimskog vremena,
09:21
and a lot of people perceived that
as being a downgrade,
as being a downgrade,
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a mnogo ljudi je to shvatilo
sa umanjenim značajem:
sa umanjenim značajem:
„Ma, neće biti tako strašno.“
09:24
"Oh, it's not going to be as bad."
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A u stvari, percepcija je bila
da neće biti tako loše,
da neće biti tako loše,
09:26
When in fact, the perception
was that it was not going to be as bad,
was that it was not going to be as bad,
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ali je zapravo došlo do pogoršanja.
09:29
but it was actually an upgrade.
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Stvari su postajale gore
kako su modeli dolazili.
kako su modeli dolazili.
09:31
Things were getting worse
as the models were coming in.
as the models were coming in.
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09:33
So that's an example of how we get
boxed in by our perceptions.
boxed in by our perceptions.
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To je primer toga kako se zaglavimo
u okvirima svoje percepcije.
u okvirima svoje percepcije.
09:38
So, the question becomes,
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Postavlja se pitanje
09:40
how do we expand our radius?
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kako da proširimo radijus opažanja?
09:45
The area of a circle is "pi r squared".
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Površina kruga je „pi puta r na kvadrat“.
09:47
We increase the radius,
we increase the area.
we increase the area.
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Povećamo radijus, povećamo površinu.
09:50
How do we expand our radius
of understanding about science?
of understanding about science?
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Kako da povećamo naš radijus
razumevanja nauke?
razumevanja nauke?
09:54
Here are my thoughts.
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Evo šta ja mislim o tome.
09:56
You take inventory of your own biases.
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Napravite popis svojih predrasuda.
09:59
And I'm challenging you all to do that.
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Izazivam vas da to uradite.
10:01
Take an inventory of your own biases.
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Napravite popis svojih predrasuda.
10:04
Where do they come from?
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Odakle one proističu?
10:06
Your upbringing, your political
perspective, your faith --
perspective, your faith --
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Iz vašeg vaspitanja,
političke perspektive, vere -
političke perspektive, vere -
10:09
what shapes your own biases?
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šta oblikuje vaše predrasude?
10:13
Then, evaluate your sources --
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Onda izvršite procenu svojih izvora -
odakle dobijate informacije o nauci?
odakle dobijate informacije o nauci?
10:15
where do you get
your information on science?
your information on science?
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10:18
What do you read, what do you listen to,
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Šta čitate, šta slušate
10:20
to consume your information on science?
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kako biste došli do informacija o nauci?
10:23
And then, it's important to speak out.
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A onda je važno govoriti o tome.
10:25
Talk about how you evaluated your biases
and evaluated your sources.
and evaluated your sources.
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Razgovarajte o tome kako ste procenili
svoje predrasude i svoje izvore.
svoje predrasude i svoje izvore.
10:29
I want you to listen to this
little 40-second clip
little 40-second clip
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Hteo bih da poslušate
ovaj snimak od 40 sekundi
ovaj snimak od 40 sekundi
10:32
from one of the top
TV meteorologists in the US, Greg Fishel,
TV meteorologists in the US, Greg Fishel,
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jednog od najboljih TV meteorologa
u SAD-u, Grega Fišela,
u SAD-u, Grega Fišela,
10:37
in the Raleigh, Durham area.
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iz Ralija u oblasti Daram.
10:39
He's revered in that region.
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Njega veoma cene u tom regionu.
10:40
But he was a climate skeptic.
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Ali bio je klimatski skeptik.
10:42
But listen to what he says
about speaking out.
about speaking out.
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Slušajte šta kaže o iznošenju ovoga.
10:44
Greg Fishel:
The mistake I was making
The mistake I was making
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Greg Fišel: Greška koju sam pravio,
10:46
and didn't realize until very recently,
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a nisam to shvatio do nedavno,
bila je da sam samo tražio informacije
10:48
was that I was only looking
for information
for information
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10:50
to support what I already thought,
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koje su podržavale
moje već postojeće mišljenje,
moje već postojeće mišljenje,
10:53
and was not interested
in listening to anything contrary.
in listening to anything contrary.
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i nije me zanimalo da čujem
ništa što je bilo suprotno tome.
ništa što je bilo suprotno tome.
10:58
And so I woke up one morning,
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Tako sam se probudio jednog jutra
11:00
and there was this question in my mind,
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i javilo mi se pitanje u glavi:
11:04
"Greg, are you engaging
in confirmation bias?
in confirmation bias?
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„Greg, da li si podlegao
efektu potvrđivanja?
efektu potvrđivanja?
11:07
Are you only looking for information
to support what you already think?"
to support what you already think?"
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Da li samo tražiš informacije
koje podupiru mišljenje koje već imaš?“
koje podupiru mišljenje koje već imaš?“
11:12
And if I was honest with myself,
and I tried to be,
and I tried to be,
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Ne bih li bio iskren prema sebi,
a pokušao sam da budem,
a pokušao sam da budem,
11:14
I admitted that was going on.
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priznao sam da se to dešava.
11:17
And so the more I talked to scientists
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I tako, što sam više pričao sa naučnicima,
11:19
and read peer-reviewed literature
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čitao recenziranu literaturu
11:21
and tried to conduct myself the way
I'd been taught to conduct myself
I'd been taught to conduct myself
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i pokušao da se ponašam
onako kako su me učili
onako kako su me učili
11:26
at Penn State when I was a student,
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kada sam bio student na Pen Stejtu,
11:29
it became very difficult for me
to make the argument
to make the argument
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postalo mi je veoma teško
da iznesem argument
da iznesem argument
11:32
that we weren't at least
having some effect.
having some effect.
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da ne doprinosimo bar malo.
Možda je i dalje postojala sumnja
u vezi sa time koliki je doprinos,
u vezi sa time koliki je doprinos,
11:34
Maybe there was still a doubt
as to how much,
as to how much,
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11:36
but to say "nothing" was not
a responsible thing for me to do
a responsible thing for me to do
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ali reći „ništa“
bilo bi neodgovorno od mene
bilo bi neodgovorno od mene
11:41
as a scientist or a person.
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kao naučnika i kao osobe.
11:45
JMS: Greg Fishel just talked
about expanding his radius
about expanding his radius
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DžMŠ: Greg Fišel je upravo govorio
o širenju svog radijusa
o širenju svog radijusa
11:49
of understanding of science.
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razumevanja nauke.
A kada proširimo taj radijus,
11:50
And when we expand our radius,
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11:52
it's not about making a better future,
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ne radi se o borbi za bolju budućnost,
11:56
but it's about preserving
life as we know it.
life as we know it.
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već o očuvanju života kakvim ga poznajemo.
12:00
So as we think about expanding
our own radius in understanding science,
our own radius in understanding science,
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Dok razmišljamo o širenju
naših radijusa razumevanja nauke,
naših radijusa razumevanja nauke,
12:06
it's critical for Athens, Georgia,
for Atlanta, Georgia,
for Atlanta, Georgia,
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to je od ključnog značaja
za Atinu i Atlantu u Džordžiji,
za Atinu i Atlantu u Džordžiji,
12:09
for the state of Georgia,
and for the world.
and for the world.
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za državu Džordžiju i za svet.
12:12
So expand your radius.
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Dakle, proširite svoj radijus.
12:14
Thank you.
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Hvala.
12:16
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
J. Marshall Shepherd - MeteorologistDr. J. Marshall Shepherd is a leading international expert in weather and climate and is the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor of Geography and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Georgia.
Why you should listen
Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd was the 2013 President of American Meteorological Society (AMS), the nation's largest and oldest professional/science society in the atmospheric and related sciences. He serves as Director of the University of Georgia's (UGA) Atmospheric Sciences Program and Full Professor in the Department of Geography where he is Associate Department Head.
Shepherd is also the host of The Weather Channel’s Weather Geeks, a pioneering Sunday talk show dedicated to science, and he is a contributor to Forbes Magazine. Dr. Shepherd routinely appears on national media outlets like CNN, The Weather Channel, CBS's Face The Nation and more. He also provides expertise to NASA, NOAA, The White House, Congress and other stakeholders.
J. Marshall Shepherd | Speaker | TED.com