TEDxUGA
J. Marshall Shepherd: 3 kinds of bias that shape your worldview
J·马歇尔·谢博德: 塑造你的世界观的三种偏见
Filmed:
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是什么塑造了我们对科学的认知（和误解）？ 气象学家 J·马歇尔·谢博德在一场令人大开眼界的演讲中，解释了确认偏误、达克效应和认知失调是如何影响我们自认为知道的东西，并分享了他的经验，我们如何用更强大的东西——知识——来替代这些偏见。
J. Marshall Shepherd - Meteorologist
Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd is a leading international expert in weather and climate and is the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor of Geography and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Georgia. Full bio
Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd is a leading international expert in weather and climate and is the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor of Geography and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Georgia. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm a meteorologist by degree,
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我是一名气象学家，
00:14
I have a bachelor's,
master's and PhD in physical meteorology,
master's and PhD in physical meteorology,
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我有物理气象学的学士、
硕士和博士学位，
硕士和博士学位，
00:17
so I'm a meteorologist, card carrying.
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所以我是个气象学家，有证的。
00:20
And so with that comes
four questions, always.
four questions, always.
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然而总有4个问题等着我，
在这件事儿上我的预测总是对的。
00:25
This is one prediction
I will always get right.
I will always get right.
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（笑声）
00:27
(Laughter)
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这些问题是，
00:29
And those questions are,
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“马修，你在哪个频道呢？”
00:31
"Marshall, what channel are you on?"
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（笑声）
00:34
(Laughter)
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“谢博德博士，明天天气怎么样?”
00:36
"Dr. Shepherd, what's the weather
going to be tomorrow?"
going to be tomorrow?"
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（笑声）
00:38
(Laughter)
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啊，我喜欢这个：
00:39
And oh, I love this one:
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“我女儿明年九月结婚，
是个户外婚礼。
是个户外婚礼。
00:41
"My daughter is getting married
next September, it's an outdoor wedding.
next September, it's an outdoor wedding.
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到时会下雨吗？”
00:45
Is it going to rain?"
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（笑声）
00:46
(Laughter)
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没开玩笑，我总被问这些问题，
然而我并不知道答案，
然而我并不知道答案，
00:47
Not kidding, I get those,
and I don't know the answer to that,
and I don't know the answer to that,
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科学在这儿不管用。
00:50
the science isn't there.
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00:53
But the one I get a lot these days is,
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但我这些天经常被问的是，
“谢博德博士，你相信气候变化吗？”
00:56
"Dr. Shepherd, do you believe
in climate change?"
in climate change?"
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01:01
"Do you believe in global warming?"
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“你相信全球变暖吗？”
01:04
Now, I have to gather myself
every time I get that question.
every time I get that question.
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如今每次被问到这些问题时，
我都得打起精神。
我都得打起精神。
因为这是个不恰当的问题——
01:08
Because it's an ill-posed question --
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科学可不是一个信仰体系。
01:10
science isn't a belief system.
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01:12
My son, he's 10 --
he believes in the tooth fairy.
he believes in the tooth fairy.
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我10岁的儿子相信牙仙的存在。
01:16
And he needs to get over that,
because I'm losing dollars, fast.
because I'm losing dollars, fast.
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他得克服这一点，因为太费钱了。
（传说牙仙会用金币把小孩子掉的牙换走）
（传说牙仙会用金币把小孩子掉的牙换走）
01:20
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
他的确相信牙仙。
01:22
But he believes in the tooth fairy.
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01:24
But consider this.
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但想一想这个。
01:27
Bank of America building,
there, in Atlanta.
there, in Atlanta.
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这是亚特兰大的美国银行大楼。
你从没听到人说，
01:29
You never hear anyone say,
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“你相信吗，如果你到那个楼顶，
01:32
"Do you believe, if you go
to the top of that building
to the top of that building
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抛个球，它就会掉下去？”
01:35
and throw a ball off, it's going to fall?"
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01:37
You never hear that,
because gravity is a thing.
because gravity is a thing.
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你从没听过，因为重力是实际存在的。
01:42
So why don't we hear the question,
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所以为什么我们不会听到这个问题，
“你相信重力吗？”
01:44
"Do you believe in gravity?"
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但我们肯定听过这个问题，
01:46
But of course, we hear the question,
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“你相信全球变暖吗？”
01:48
"Do you believe in global warming?"
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01:52
Well, consider these facts.
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考虑到这些事实：
01:55
The American Association
for the Advancement of Science, AAAS,
for the Advancement of Science, AAAS,
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美国科学促进会，简称AAAS，
这是一个在科学领域的主要组织，
01:58
one of the leading
organizations in science,
organizations in science,
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曾就不同的科学课题
向科学家和公众提问。
向科学家和公众提问。
02:01
queried scientists and the public
on different science topics.
on different science topics.
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这是其中一些课题：
02:05
Here are some of them:
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转基因产品，动物研究，人类进化。
02:06
genetically modified food,
animal research, human evolution.
animal research, human evolution.
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02:11
And look at what the scientists
say about those,
say about those,
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看看科学家对这些怎么说，
红色代表那些在研究这些课题的人，
02:14
the people that actually
study those topics, in red,
study those topics, in red,
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灰色，则代表公众的态度。
02:16
versus the gray, what the public thinks.
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这是怎么造成的？
02:19
How did we get there?
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02:21
How did we get there?
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为什么会有这么大的差异？
02:24
That scientists and the public
are so far apart on these science issues.
are so far apart on these science issues.
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科学家和公众在这些
科学问题上意见如此相左。
科学问题上意见如此相左。
02:29
Well, I'll come a little bit
closer to home for me,
closer to home for me,
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好了，我要说个我比较擅长的，
气候变化。
02:31
climate change.
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02:33
Eighty-seven percent of scientists
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87%的科学家
认为是人类的行为导致了气候变化，
02:36
believe that humans are contributing
to climate change.
to climate change.
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02:41
But only 50 percent of the public?
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但只有50%的公众这样认为。
02:45
How did we get there?
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为什么会这样？
这就引出了问题，
02:46
So it begs the question,
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是什么塑造了我们对科学的认知？
02:48
what shapes perceptions about science?
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02:54
It's an interesting question
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这是个有趣的问题，
我也一直在思考这个问题。
02:56
and one that I've been
thinking about quite a bit.
thinking about quite a bit.
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03:00
I think that one thing that shapes
perceptions in the public, about science,
perceptions in the public, about science,
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我想有一件事影响了
公众对科学的看法，
公众对科学的看法，
就是信仰体系和偏见，
03:05
is belief systems and biases.
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03:08
Belief systems and biases.
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信仰体系和偏见。
我来解释一下。
03:09
Go with me for a moment.
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03:12
Because I want to talk
about three elements of that:
about three elements of that:
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我想要谈一谈这个问题的三个元素：
确认偏误，达克效应
03:14
confirmation bias, Dunning-Kruger effect
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和认知失调。
03:18
and cognitive dissonance.
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这些听起来都有点像不切实际的
学术术语，它们也确实是这样的。
学术术语，它们也确实是这样的。
03:20
Now, these sound like big, fancy,
academic terms, and they are.
academic terms, and they are.
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03:24
But when I describe them,
you're going to be like, "Oh!
you're going to be like, "Oh!
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但当我进一步做出解释时，
你们就会恍然大悟，“哦！
你们就会恍然大悟，“哦！
我听说过这个；
我甚至知道有人就是这样的。”
我甚至知道有人就是这样的。”
03:28
I recognize that; I even know
somebody that does that."
somebody that does that."
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03:33
Confirmation bias.
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确认偏误。
03:36
Finding evidence that supports
what we already believe.
what we already believe.
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寻找证据来支持我们已经相信的事。
我们对此可能多少都难辞其咎。
03:40
Now, we're probably all
a little bit guilty of that at times.
a little bit guilty of that at times.
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03:45
Take a look at this.
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看看这个。
我有自己的Twitter账户。
03:46
I'm on Twitter.
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通常，遇到下雪的时候，
03:48
And often, when it snows,
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我会收到这样的转发。
03:50
I'll get this tweet back to me.
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（笑声）
03:52
(Laughter)
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“嘿，谢博德博士，我院子里
有20英寸的全球变暖（指雪），
有20英寸的全球变暖（指雪），
03:55
"Hey, Dr. Shepherd, I have 20 inches
of global warming in my yard,
of global warming in my yard,
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你们这些家伙在说啥，气候变化？”
03:58
what are you guys
talking about, climate change?"
talking about, climate change?"
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我其实收到了很多那样的推特。
04:01
I get that tweet a lot, actually.
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04:04
It's a cute tweet,
it makes me chuckle as well.
it makes me chuckle as well.
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这条推特挺逗的，也让我忍俊不禁。
但它在科学上是站不住脚的。
04:07
But it's oh, so fundamentally
scientifically flawed.
scientifically flawed.
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04:12
Because it illustrates
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因为它说明了
发推特的人并不理解
04:13
that the person tweeting
doesn't understand
doesn't understand
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天气和气候的差异。
04:15
the difference
between weather and climate.
between weather and climate.
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04:19
I often say, weather is your mood
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我常说，天气是你的情绪，
而气候是你的个性。
04:23
and climate is your personality.
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04:26
Think about that.
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想想看。
天气是你的情绪，气候是你的个性。
04:28
Weather is your mood,
climate is your personality.
climate is your personality.
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你今天的情绪不一定
能代表你的个性，
能代表你的个性，
04:30
Your mood today doesn't necessarily
tell me anything about your personality,
tell me anything about your personality,
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所以即使有一天特别冷，
也不能说明气候变化了，
也不能说明气候变化了，
04:34
nor does a cold day tell me anything
about climate change,
about climate change,
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有一天特别热，也一样不能代表什么。
04:37
or a hot day, for that matter.
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04:41
Dunning-Kruger.
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达克效应。
(高估自己的能力）
(高估自己的能力）
04:43
Two scholars from Cornell
came up with the Dunning-Kruger effect.
came up with the Dunning-Kruger effect.
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康奈尔大学的两位学者
提出了达克效应。
提出了达克效应。
如果你去查阅同行评议的论文，
04:46
If you go look up
the peer-reviewed paper for this,
the peer-reviewed paper for this,
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你会看到各种很炫的术语：
04:49
you will see all kinds
of fancy terminology:
of fancy terminology:
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这是一种虚幻的优越感，
以为我们什么都知道。
以为我们什么都知道。
04:51
it's an illusory superiority complex,
thinking we know things.
thinking we know things.
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换句话说，人们高估了
自己所掌握的知识。
自己所掌握的知识。
04:55
In other words, people think
they know more than they do.
they know more than they do.
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04:59
Or they underestimate
what they don't know.
what they don't know.
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或者说，他们低估了他们的无知。
05:02
And then, there's cognitive dissonance.
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然后是认知失调。
（新信息冲击现有认知）
（新信息冲击现有认知）
05:06
Cognitive dissonance is interesting.
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认知失调很有趣。
05:09
We just recently had Groundhog Day, right?
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我们刚刚过了土拨鼠节，是吧？
（北美传统节日，用土拨鼠预测时令）
（北美传统节日，用土拨鼠预测时令）
05:13
Now, there's no better definition
of cognitive dissonance
of cognitive dissonance
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对认知失调最好的解释就好比是，
一个聪明人问我
啮齿动物的预测是否准确。
啮齿动物的预测是否准确。
05:15
than intelligent people asking me
if a rodent's forecast is accurate.
if a rodent's forecast is accurate.
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（笑声）
05:19
(Laughter)
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但我一直都能理解。
05:22
But I get that, all of the time.
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（笑声）
05:24
(Laughter)
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我也听说过黄历。
05:26
But I also hear
about the Farmer's Almanac.
about the Farmer's Almanac.
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我们靠着黄历长大，人们很熟悉它。
05:29
We grew up on the Farmer's Almanac,
people are familiar with it.
people are familiar with it.
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05:34
The problem is, it's only
about 37 percent accurate,
about 37 percent accurate,
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但问题在于，根据
宾夕法尼亚州立大学的研究，
宾夕法尼亚州立大学的研究，
它的准确性只有37%。
05:37
according to studies
at Penn State University.
at Penn State University.
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05:43
But we're in an era of science
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但我们身在科学的时代，
我们确实可以预测天气。
05:47
where we actually
can forecast the weather.
can forecast the weather.
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不管信不信，我知道你们有些人
会说：“好吧好吧，你说的都对”，
会说：“好吧好吧，你说的都对”，
05:49
And believe it or not, and I know
some of you are like, "Yeah, right,"
some of you are like, "Yeah, right,"
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我们对天气预测的
准确率有90%或者更高。
准确率有90%或者更高。
05:52
we're about 90 percent accurate, or more,
with weather forecast.
with weather forecast.
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但你们只会记得偶尔几次的
失误，可别不承认。
失误，可别不承认。
05:55
You just tend to remember
the occasional miss, you do.
the occasional miss, you do.
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（笑声）
05:58
(Laughter)
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06:02
So confirmation bias,
Dunning-Kruger and cognitive dissonance.
Dunning-Kruger and cognitive dissonance.
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所以确认偏误，达克效应和认知失调。
我认为是这些形成了
人们对科学的偏见和看法。
人们对科学的偏见和看法。
06:05
I think those shape biases and perceptions
that people have about science.
that people have about science.
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06:11
But then, there's literacy
and misinformation
and misinformation
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但是，文化素养和错误信息
也会让我们陷入困境。
06:13
that keep us boxed in, as well.
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06:17
During the hurricane season of 2017,
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在2017年的飓风季，
媒体机构不得不指派记者，
06:20
media outlets had to actually
assign reporters
assign reporters
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06:24
to dismiss fake information
about the weather forecast.
about the weather forecast.
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驳斥有关天气预报的虚假信息。
06:30
That's the era that we're in.
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这就是我们所在的时代。
06:32
I deal with this all the time
in social media.
in social media.
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我一直在社交媒体上应对这些问题。
有人会在推特上发布预报——
06:35
Someone will tweet a forecast --
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这是飓风厄玛的预报，但问题是：
06:36
that's a forecast for Hurricane Irma,
but here's the problem:
but here's the problem:
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它不是官方飓风中心发布的。
06:39
it didn't come from the Hurricane Center.
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06:42
But people were tweeting
and sharing this; it went viral.
and sharing this; it went viral.
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但人们在推特上分享这个，
消息就扩散开了。
消息就扩散开了。
它根本就不是国家飓风中心发布的。
06:45
It didn't come from
the National Hurricane Center at all.
the National Hurricane Center at all.
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06:50
So I spent 12 years of my career at NASA
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在来到乔治亚大学之前，
我在NASA工作了12年，
06:52
before coming
to the University of Georgia,
to the University of Georgia,
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06:54
and I chair their Earth Science
Advisory Committee,
Advisory Committee,
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我是地球科学咨询委员会的主席，
我上周刚刚去过华盛顿。
06:57
I was just up there last week in DC.
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我看到了一些很有趣的事情。
06:59
And I saw some really interesting things.
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这是NASA的模型和
来自卫星的科学数据
来自卫星的科学数据
07:01
Here's a NASA model
and science data from satellite
and science data from satellite
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显示了2017年飓风季的情况。
07:04
showing the 2017 hurricane season.
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你们看到那边的哈维飓风没？
07:06
You see Hurricane Harvey there?
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07:09
Look at all the dust coming off of Africa.
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看看这些从非洲飘来的尘土。
07:12
Look at the wildfires up in northwest US
and in western Canada.
and in western Canada.
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看看美国西北部和加拿大西部的野火。
飓风厄玛来了。
07:17
There comes Hurricane Irma.
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07:20
This is fascinating to me.
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这对我很有吸引力。
07:23
But admittedly, I'm a weather geek.
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无可否认，我是个气象迷。
07:26
But more importantly, it illustrates
that we have the technology
that we have the technology
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但更重要的是，它展示了我们拥有的科技
不仅可以观察天气和气候系统，
07:30
to not only observe the weather
and climate system,
and climate system,
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而且可以预测它。
07:33
but predict it.
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07:34
There's scientific understanding,
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这就是科学理念，
所以我们刚才说的那些观念和偏见
07:36
so there's no need for some
of those perceptions and biases
of those perceptions and biases
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是真的毫无用处。
07:39
that we've been talking about.
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我们拥有知识。
07:41
We have knowledge.
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但是想想这个…
07:42
But think about this ...
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这是飓风哈维过后的
德克萨斯州休斯顿。
德克萨斯州休斯顿。
07:43
This is Houston, Texas,
after Hurricane Harvey.
after Hurricane Harvey.
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07:47
Now, I write a contribution
for "Forbes" magazine periodically,
for "Forbes" magazine periodically,
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现在，我定期为《福布斯》杂志撰稿，
07:50
and I wrote an article a week before
Hurricane Harvey made landfall, saying,
Hurricane Harvey made landfall, saying,
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在飓风哈维登陆前一周，
我写了一篇文章说，
我写了一篇文章说，
“可能会有40到50英寸的降雨量。”
07:55
"There's probably going to be
40 to 50 inches of rainfall."
40 to 50 inches of rainfall."
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07:58
I wrote that a week before it happened.
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我在它发生的前一周写了这个文章。
但是，当你和休斯敦的人交谈时，
08:01
But yet, when you talk
to people in Houston,
to people in Houston,
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人们会说，“我没想到会这么糟糕。”
08:03
people are saying, "We had no idea
it was going to be this bad."
it was going to be this bad."
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08:07
I'm just...
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我只能…
（叹息）
08:08
(Sigh)
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（笑声）
08:09
(Laughter)
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整整提前了一周。
08:10
A week before.
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但是——
08:11
But --
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我知道这有点可笑，但现实是，
08:13
I know, it's amusing, but the reality is,
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让我们理解经验水平之外的
东西真的很困难。
东西真的很困难。
08:15
we all struggle with perceiving something
outside of our experience level.
outside of our experience level.
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休斯顿的人总在经历下雨，
08:21
People in Houston
get rain all of the time,
get rain all of the time,
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雨水泛滥很平常。
08:24
they flood all of the time.
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08:26
But they've never experienced that.
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但他们从没有遭受过那样的情况。
08:29
Houston gets about 34 inches of rainfall
for the entire year.
for the entire year.
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休斯顿全年降雨量约为34英寸。
而那段时间，他们
在3天内遭受了50英寸。
在3天内遭受了50英寸。
08:33
They got 50 inches in three days.
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08:37
That's an anomaly event,
that's outside of the normal.
that's outside of the normal.
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这是异常事件，超出了正常范围。
08:42
So belief systems and biases,
literacy and misinformation.
literacy and misinformation.
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所以信仰体系和偏见，
文化素养和错误信息。
文化素养和错误信息。
我们如何走出左右我们认知的框框？
08:45
How do we step out of the boxes
that are cornering our perceptions?
that are cornering our perceptions?
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08:50
Well we don't even have to go to Houston,
we can come very close to home.
we can come very close to home.
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我们甚至不需要去休斯顿，
在家附近就可以观察到。
在家附近就可以观察到。
（笑声）
08:54
(Laughter)
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还记得“末日暴雪”吗？
08:55
Remember "Snowpocalypse?"
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（笑声）
08:57
(Laughter)
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雪魔？
08:59
Snowmageddon?
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雪巨人？
09:00
Snowzilla?
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不管你怎么称呼她，
09:02
Whatever you want to call it.
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都只有两英寸的雪。
09:04
All two inches of it.
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（笑声）
09:06
(Laughter)
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两英寸厚的雪就使亚特兰大市瘫痪了。
09:09
Two inches of snow
shut the city of Atlanta down.
shut the city of Atlanta down.
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（笑声）
09:11
(Laughter)
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09:14
But the reality is,
we were in a winter storm watch,
we were in a winter storm watch,
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但事实是，我们在严防冬季风暴，
我们去了冬季天气咨询机构，
09:19
we went to a winter weather advisory,
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很多人都认为雪灾会降级，
09:21
and a lot of people perceived that
as being a downgrade,
as being a downgrade,
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“哦，不会那么糟的。”
09:24
"Oh, it's not going to be as bad."
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事实上，人们的感觉是，不会这么糟糕，
09:26
When in fact, the perception
was that it was not going to be as bad,
was that it was not going to be as bad,
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但其实雪灾升级了。
09:29
but it was actually an upgrade.
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随着模型的出现，情况在变得更糟。
09:31
Things were getting worse
as the models were coming in.
as the models were coming in.
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这就是我们被自己的
认知束缚的一个例子。
认知束缚的一个例子。
09:33
So that's an example of how we get
boxed in by our perceptions.
boxed in by our perceptions.
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09:38
So, the question becomes,
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所以问题就变成了，
我们如何扩大我们的认知半径？
09:40
how do we expand our radius?
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09:45
The area of a circle is "pi r squared".
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圆的面积是 π R的平方。
我们增加半径，就能增加面积。
09:47
We increase the radius,
we increase the area.
we increase the area.
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我们如何扩大我们理解科学的半径？
09:50
How do we expand our radius
of understanding about science?
of understanding about science?
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09:54
Here are my thoughts.
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这是我的思考。
09:56
You take inventory of your own biases.
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你们列出自己的偏见。
我想让你们所有人都这么做。
09:59
And I'm challenging you all to do that.
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列出你们的偏见。
10:01
Take an inventory of your own biases.
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10:04
Where do they come from?
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它们来自哪里？
你的教养，你的政治观点，你的信仰——
10:06
Your upbringing, your political
perspective, your faith --
perspective, your faith --
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你自己的偏见是如何形成的？
10:09
what shapes your own biases?
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10:13
Then, evaluate your sources --
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然后，评估你的信息来源——
你在哪里获取科学信息？
10:15
where do you get
your information on science?
your information on science?
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10:18
What do you read, what do you listen to,
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你读什么，你听什么，
什么是你获得科学信息的来源？
10:20
to consume your information on science?
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10:23
And then, it's important to speak out.
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然后，重要的是说出来。
谈谈你如何评估你的偏见和信息来源。
10:25
Talk about how you evaluated your biases
and evaluated your sources.
and evaluated your sources.
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我想让你们听听这个40秒的小片段，
10:29
I want you to listen to this
little 40-second clip
little 40-second clip
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来自美国顶尖的电视
气象学家之一，格雷格·费舍尔，
气象学家之一，格雷格·费舍尔，
10:32
from one of the top
TV meteorologists in the US, Greg Fishel,
TV meteorologists in the US, Greg Fishel,
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他住在Durham的Raleigh地区。
10:37
in the Raleigh, Durham area.
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他在那个地区很受尊敬。
10:39
He's revered in that region.
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但他是个气候怀疑论者。
10:40
But he was a climate skeptic.
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但是听听他关于发声是怎么说的。
10:42
But listen to what he says
about speaking out.
about speaking out.
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格雷格·费舍尔：
“我犯过的错误，
“我犯过的错误，
10:44
Greg Fishel:
The mistake I was making
The mistake I was making
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并且直到最近我才意识到的是，
10:46
and didn't realize until very recently,
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我只看那些
10:48
was that I was only looking
for information
for information
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能支撑我想法的信息，
10:50
to support what I already thought,
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从来不对任何相反的信息感兴趣。
10:53
and was not interested
in listening to anything contrary.
in listening to anything contrary.
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10:58
And so I woke up one morning,
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所以有一天早晨我醒来，
脑海中有个问题，
11:00
and there was this question in my mind,
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11:04
"Greg, are you engaging
in confirmation bias?
in confirmation bias?
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‘格雷格，你是不是陷入了确认偏误？
你是不是只看那些支持你想法的信息。’
11:07
Are you only looking for information
to support what you already think?"
to support what you already think?"
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11:12
And if I was honest with myself,
and I tried to be,
and I tried to be,
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如果我对自己诚实，也试图对自己诚实，
我得承认是这样的。
11:14
I admitted that was going on.
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11:17
And so the more I talked to scientists
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所以我和科学家交谈的次数越多，
阅读同行评议的文献越多，
11:19
and read peer-reviewed literature
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我也努力像我在
宾夕法尼亚州立大学上学时
宾夕法尼亚州立大学上学时
11:21
and tried to conduct myself the way
I'd been taught to conduct myself
I'd been taught to conduct myself
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被教导的那样去要求自己，
11:26
at Penn State when I was a student,
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11:29
it became very difficult for me
to make the argument
to make the argument
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对我来说，就越难证明
我们一点也没有被影响。
11:32
that we weren't at least
having some effect.
having some effect.
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也许，到底被影响了多少还是个疑问，
11:34
Maybe there was still a doubt
as to how much,
as to how much,
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但作为一个科学家或一个人，
说‘一点也没被影响’
说‘一点也没被影响’
11:36
but to say "nothing" was not
a responsible thing for me to do
a responsible thing for me to do
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是一件不负责任的事情。”
11:41
as a scientist or a person.
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11:45
JMS: Greg Fishel just talked
about expanding his radius
about expanding his radius
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JMS：格雷格·费舍尔刚刚在说
扩大他认知科学的半径。
11:49
of understanding of science.
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当我们扩大我们的半径时，
11:50
And when we expand our radius,
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不是为了创造一个更好的未来，
11:52
it's not about making a better future,
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而是为了保留我们所知的生活。
11:56
but it's about preserving
life as we know it.
life as we know it.
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12:00
So as we think about expanding
our own radius in understanding science,
our own radius in understanding science,
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所以当我们想要扩大
我们对科学的理解范围时，
我们对科学的理解范围时，
12:06
it's critical for Athens, Georgia,
for Atlanta, Georgia,
for Atlanta, Georgia,
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这对乔治亚州的雅典和亚特兰大，
对乔治亚州和整个世界都很重要。
12:09
for the state of Georgia,
and for the world.
and for the world.
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12:12
So expand your radius.
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所以，扩大你的半径吧。
谢谢。
12:14
Thank you.
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（鼓掌）
12:16
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
J. Marshall Shepherd - MeteorologistDr. J. Marshall Shepherd is a leading international expert in weather and climate and is the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor of Geography and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Georgia.
Why you should listen
Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd was the 2013 President of American Meteorological Society (AMS), the nation's largest and oldest professional/science society in the atmospheric and related sciences. He serves as Director of the University of Georgia's (UGA) Atmospheric Sciences Program and Full Professor in the Department of Geography where he is Associate Department Head.
Shepherd is also the host of The Weather Channel’s Weather Geeks, a pioneering Sunday talk show dedicated to science, and he is a contributor to Forbes Magazine. Dr. Shepherd routinely appears on national media outlets like CNN, The Weather Channel, CBS's Face The Nation and more. He also provides expertise to NASA, NOAA, The White House, Congress and other stakeholders.
J. Marshall Shepherd | Speaker | TED.com