ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kathryn Schulz - Wrongologist
Kathryn Schulz is a staff writer for the New Yorker and is the author of "Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error."

Why you should listen

Kathryn Schulz is a journalist, author, and public speaker with a credible (if not necessarily enviable) claim to being the world's leading wrongologist.  She is the author of Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error. She was previously the book critic for New York Magazine; her writing has also appeared in the New York Times Magazine, Rolling Stone, TIME Magazine, the Boston Globe, the "Freakonomics" blog of The New York Times, The Nation, Foreign Policy, and the New York Times Book Review, among other publications. She is the former editor of the online environmental magazine Grist, and a former reporter and editor for The Santiago Times, of Santiago, Chile, where she covered environmental, labor, and human rights issues. She was a 2004 recipient of the Pew Fellowship in International Journalism (now the International Reporting Project), and has reported from throughout Central and South America, Japan, and, most recently, the Middle East. A graduate of Brown University and a former Ohioan, Oregonian and Brooklynite, she currently lives in New York's Hudson Valley.

More profile about the speaker
Kathryn Schulz | Speaker | TED.com
TED2011

Kathryn Schulz: On being wrong

凯瑟琳 舒尔茨:犯错的价值

Filmed:
4,826,828 views

每个人都会避免犯错,但或许避免犯错本身就是一种错误?“犯错家“凯瑟琳舒尔茨告诉我们,或许我们不只该承认错误,更应该大力拥抱人性中“我错故我在“的本质。
- Wrongologist
Kathryn Schulz is a staff writer for the New Yorker and is the author of "Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error." Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:15
So it's 1995,
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当时是95年
00:18
I'm in college学院,
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我在上大学
00:20
and a friend朋友 and I go on a road trip
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我和一个朋友开车去玩
00:23
from Providence普罗维登斯, Rhode罗德岛 Island
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从罗得岛的普罗旺斯区出发
00:25
to Portland波特兰, Oregon俄勒冈.
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到奥勒冈州的波特兰市
00:27
And you know, we're young年轻 and unemployed失业的,
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我们年轻,无业
00:30
so we do the whole整个 thing on back roads道路
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于是整个旅程都在乡间小道
00:32
through通过 state parks公园
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经过州立公园
00:34
and national国民 forests森林 --
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和国家保护森林
00:37
basically基本上 the longest最长 route路线 we can possibly或者 take.
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我们尽可能绕着最长的路径
00:41
And somewhere某处 in the middle中间 of South Dakota达科他州,
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在南达科塔州之中某处
00:44
I turn to my friend朋友
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我转向我的朋友
00:47
and I ask her a question
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问她一个
00:49
that's been bothering困扰 me
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两千英里路途上
00:51
for 2,000 miles英里.
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一直烦恼我的问题
00:55
"What's up with the Chinese中文 character字符 I keep seeing眼看 by the side of the road?"
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"路边那个一直出现的中文字到底是什么?"
01:02
My friend朋友 looks容貌 at me totally完全 blankly面无表情.
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我的朋友露出疑惑的神情
01:06
There's actually其实 a gentleman绅士 in the front面前 row
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正如现在坐在第一排的这三位男士
01:08
who's谁是 doing a perfect完善 imitation仿制 of her look.
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所露出的神情一样
01:11
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
01:14
And I'm like, "You know,
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我说"你知道的
01:16
all the signs迹象 we keep seeing眼看
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我们一直看到的那个路牌
01:18
with the Chinese中文 character字符 on them."
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写着中文的那个啊"
01:22
She just stares凝视 at me for a few少数 moments瞬间,
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她瞪着我的脸一阵子
01:25
and then she cracks裂缝 up,
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突然笑开了
01:28
because she figures人物 out what I'm talking about.
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因为她总算知道我所指为何
01:30
And what I'm talking about is this.
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我说的是这个
01:33
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
01:39
Right, the famous著名 Chinese中文 character字符 for picnic野餐 area.
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没错,这就是代表野餐区的那个中文字
01:43
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
01:45
I've spent花费 the last five years年份 of my life
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过去的五年
01:49
thinking思维 about situations情况
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我一直在思考
01:51
exactly究竟 like this --
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刚刚我所描述的状况
01:54
why we sometimes有时 misunderstand误解
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为什么我们会对身边的征兆
01:56
the signs迹象 around us,
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产生误解
01:58
and how we behave表现 when that happens发生,
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当误解发生时我们作何反应
02:01
and what all of this can tell us about human人的 nature性质.
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以及这一切所告诉我们的人性
02:05
In other words, as you heard听说 Chris克里斯 say,
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换句话说,就像 Chris 刚才说的
02:07
I've spent花费 the last five years年份
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过去五年的时间
02:09
thinking思维 about being存在 wrong错误.
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我都在思考错误的价值
02:12
This might威力 strike罢工 you as a strange奇怪 career事业 move移动,
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你可能觉得这是个奇异的专业
02:15
but it actually其实 has one great advantage优点:
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但有一项好处是不容置疑的:
02:18
no job工作 competition竞争.
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没有竞争者。
02:20
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
02:22
In fact事实, most of us do everything we can
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事实上,我们大部分的人
02:25
to avoid避免 thinking思维 about being存在 wrong错误,
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都尽力不思考错误的价值
02:28
or at least最小 to avoid避免 thinking思维 about the possibility可能性
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或至少避免想到我们
02:30
that we ourselves我们自己 are wrong错误.
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有可能犯错。
02:32
We get it in the abstract抽象.
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我们都知道这个模糊的概念。
02:34
We all know everybody每个人 in this room房间 makes品牌 mistakes错误.
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我们都知道这里的每个人都曾经犯错
02:37
The human人的 species种类, in general一般, is fallible易错的 -- okay fine.
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人类本来就会犯错 - 没问题
02:41
But when it comes down to me, right now,
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一旦这个想法临到我们自身
02:44
to all the beliefs信仰 I hold保持,
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我们现在所有的
02:46
here in the present当下 tense紧张,
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所有的信念
02:49
suddenly突然 all of this abstract抽象 appreciation升值 of fallibility易错
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对人类可能犯错的抽象概念
02:53
goes out the window窗口 --
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随即被我们抛弃
02:56
and I can't actually其实 think of anything I'm wrong错误 about.
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我无法想到我有哪里出错
03:00
And the thing is, the present当下 tense紧张 is where we live生活.
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但是,我们活在现在
03:03
We go to meetings会议 in the present当下 tense紧张;
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我们开会,去家庭旅游
03:06
we go on family家庭 vacations休假 in the present当下 tense紧张;
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去投票
03:08
we go to the polls民意调查 and vote投票 in the present当下 tense紧张.
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全都是现在式
03:12
So effectively有效, we all kind of wind up traveling旅行 through通过 life,
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我们就像现在一个小泡泡里
03:15
trapped被困 in this little bubble泡沫
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经历人生
03:17
of feeling感觉 very right about everything.
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感觉自己总是对的
03:21
I think this is a problem问题.
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我认为这是个问题
03:23
I think it's a problem问题 for each of us as individuals个人,
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我认为这是每个人私人生活
03:26
in our personal个人 and professional专业的 lives生活,
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和职业生活中的问题
03:29
and I think it's a problem问题 for all of us collectively as a culture文化.
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我认为我们身为群体,这也造成了文化问题
03:32
So what I want to do today今天
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于是,我今天想做的是
03:34
is, first of all, talk about why we get stuck卡住
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先谈谈为甚么我们会
03:37
inside this feeling感觉 of being存在 right.
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陷在这种自以为是的心态中
03:39
And second第二, why it's such这样 a problem问题.
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第二是为甚么这是个问题
03:42
And finally最后, I want to convince说服 you
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最后我想说服大家
03:44
that it is possible可能
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克服这种感觉
03:46
to step outside of that feeling感觉
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是可能的
03:48
and that if you can do so,
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而且一旦你做到了
03:50
it is the single greatest最大
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这将成为你道德上
03:52
moral道德, intellectual知识分子 and creative创作的 leap飞跃 you can make.
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智性上和创意上最大的进步
03:57
So why do we get stuck卡住
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为甚么我们会陷在
03:59
in this feeling感觉 of being存在 right?
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这种自以为是的心态中?
04:01
One reason原因, actually其实, has to do with a feeling感觉 of being存在 wrong错误.
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事实上这和犯错的感觉有关
04:04
So let me ask you guys something --
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我想问问你们
04:06
or actually其实, let me ask you guys something, because you're right here:
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让我问问台上的你们
04:10
How does it feel -- emotionally感情上 --
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当你意识到自己犯错了
04:13
how does it feel to be wrong错误?
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你感觉如何?
04:16
Dreadful可怕. Thumbs大拇指 down.
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糟透了。很差劲。
04:19
Embarrassing尴尬. Okay, wonderful精彩, great.
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难堪。很好,是的。
04:21
Dreadful可怕, thumbs大拇指 down, embarrassing尴尬 --
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很糟糕,很差劲,很难堪。
04:23
thank you, these are great answers答案,
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谢谢你们提供这些答案
04:26
but they're answers答案 to a different不同 question.
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但这些答案没有回答我的问题
04:29
You guys are answering回答 the question:
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你们回答的问题是:
04:31
How does it feel to realize实现 you're wrong错误?
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当你意识到你犯错的时候,你的感觉如何?
04:34
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
04:38
Realizing实现 you're wrong错误 can feel like all of that and a lot of other things, right?
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意识到你犯错了就会有刚刚所说的这些感觉,不是吗?
04:41
I mean it can be devastating破坏性的, it can be revelatory启示的,
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令人沮丧,暴露了一些真实
04:44
it can actually其实 be quite相当 funny滑稽,
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有时候甚至有些好笑
04:46
like my stupid Chinese中文 character字符 mistake错误.
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像我误以为路牌是中文字
04:49
But just being存在 wrong错误
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但犯错本身
04:52
doesn't feel like anything.
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事实上毫无感觉
04:54
I'll give you an analogy比喻.
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让我给你一个例子
04:57
Do you remember记得 that Loony发狂 Tunes曲调 cartoon动画片
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你记得卡通里
04:59
where there's this pathetic可怜 coyote郊狼
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那个总是在追逐
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who's谁是 always chasing and never catching a roadrunner走鹃?
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却从未抓到猎物的土狼吗?
05:03
In pretty漂亮 much every一切 episode插曲 of this cartoon动画片,
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几乎在每一集里
05:06
there's a moment时刻 where the coyote郊狼 is chasing the roadrunner走鹃
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牠的猎物 - 一只走鹃鸟
05:08
and the roadrunner走鹃 runs运行 off a cliff悬崖,
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都会跳下悬崖
05:10
which哪一个 is fine -- he's a bird, he can fly.
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反正牠是鸟,牠可以飞
05:13
But the thing is, the coyote郊狼 runs运行 off the cliff悬崖 right after him.
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但土狼也会跟着牠一起跳崖
05:17
And what's funny滑稽 --
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那很好笑
05:19
at least最小 if you're six years年份 old --
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如果你是个六岁儿童
05:21
is that the coyote's郊狼 totally完全 fine too.
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土狼也很好
05:23
He just keeps保持 running赛跑 --
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牠就这么继续跑
05:25
right up until直到 the moment时刻 that he looks容貌 down
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直到牠往下看
05:27
and realizes实现 that he's in mid-air半空.
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发现自己漫步在空中
05:30
That's when he falls下降.
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这时候他才会往下掉
05:34
When we're wrong错误 about something --
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在我们犯错时
05:36
not when we realize实现 it, but before that --
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在我们意识到我们犯错时
05:39
we're like that coyote郊狼
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我们就像那只土狼
05:42
after he's gone走了 off the cliff悬崖 and before he looks容貌 down.
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还没意识到自己奔出悬崖
05:46
You know, we're already已经 wrong错误,
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我们已经错了
05:49
we're already已经 in trouble麻烦,
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已经惹上麻烦了
05:51
but we feel like we're on solid固体 ground地面.
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但仍然感觉像走在地上
05:55
So I should actually其实 correct正确 something I said a moment时刻 ago.
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我应该改变我之前的说法
05:58
It does feel like something to be wrong错误;
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犯错的感觉就和
06:01
it feels感觉 like being存在 right.
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正确的感觉一样
06:04
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
06:07
So this is one reason原因, a structural结构 reason原因,
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事实上我们这种自以为对的感受
06:10
why we get stuck卡住 inside this feeling感觉 of rightness正当性.
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是有构造性的原因的
06:12
I call this error错误 blindness失明.
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我称之为错误盲点
06:14
Most of the time,
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大部份的时间里
06:16
we don't have any kind of internal内部 cue球杆
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我们身体里没有任何机制
06:19
to let us know that we're wrong错误 about something,
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提醒我们错了
06:21
until直到 it's too late晚了.
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直到木已成舟
06:24
But there's a second第二 reason原因 that we get stuck卡住 inside this feeling感觉 as well --
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但还有第二个理由
06:27
and this one is cultural文化.
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文化性的理由
06:30
Think back for a moment时刻 to elementary初级 school学校.
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回想小学时代
06:33
You're sitting坐在 there in class,
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你坐在课堂里
06:35
and your teacher老师 is handing移交 back quiz测验 papers文件,
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你的老师发回小考考卷
06:38
and one of them looks容貌 like this.
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像这样的小考考卷
06:40
This is not mine, by the way.
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虽然这张不是我的
06:42
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
06:44
So there you are in grade年级 school学校,
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你从小学时代
06:47
and you know exactly究竟 what to think
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就知道该对拿这张考卷的同学
06:49
about the kid孩子 who got this paper.
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下甚么评语
06:52
It's the dumb kid孩子, the troublemaker麻烦制造者,
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笨蛋,捣蛋鬼
06:55
the one who never does his homework家庭作业.
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从不做功课的坏学生
06:58
So by the time you are nine years年份 old,
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你不过才九岁
07:01
you've already已经 learned学到了, first of all,
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你已经懂得,首先
07:03
that people who get stuff东东 wrong错误
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那些犯错的人
07:05
are lazy, irresponsible不负责任 dimwits愚笨的人类 --
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都是懒惰、不负责任的傻瓜
07:08
and second第二 of all,
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第二
07:10
that the way to succeed成功 in life
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想要在人生中成功
07:12
is to never make any mistakes错误.
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就不要犯错
07:16
We learn学习 these really bad lessons教训 really well.
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我们很早就得到这些错误讯息
07:21
And a lot of us --
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而我们
07:23
and I suspect疑似, especially特别 a lot of us in this room房间 --
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尤其是这个大厅里的许多人
07:27
deal合同 with them by just becoming变得
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都因此成为好学生
07:29
perfect完善 little A students学生们,
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拿全A
07:31
perfectionists完美主义者, over-achievers过成就.
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完美主义、永不满意
07:34
Right,
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不是吗?
07:36
Mr先生. CFO首席财务官, astrophysicist天体物理学家, ultra-marathoner超马拉松?
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财务长、天体物理学家、超级马拉松先生们?
07:40
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
07:47
You're all CFO首席财务官, astrophysicists天体物理学家, ultra-marathoners超马拉松, it turns out.
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结果是你们全成了财务长、天体物理学家、跑超级马拉松
07:51
Okay, so fine.
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那很好
07:53
Except that then we freak怪物 out
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但一旦我们发现有可能犯错
07:56
at the possibility可能性 that we've我们已经 gotten得到 something wrong错误.
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就开始手足无措
07:58
Because according根据 to this,
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因为依照规定
08:01
getting得到 something wrong错误
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犯错
08:03
means手段 there's something wrong错误 with us.
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代表我们一定也有甚么不对劲
08:06
So we just insist咬定 that we're right,
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于是我们坚持己见
08:08
because it makes品牌 us feel smart聪明 and responsible主管
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因为那让我们感觉聪明、得体
08:10
and virtuous and safe安全.
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安全和可靠
08:14
So let me tell you a story故事.
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让我告诉你们一个故事
08:16
A couple一对 of years年份 ago,
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几年前
08:18
a woman女人 comes into Beth贝丝 Israel以色列 Deaconess女执事 Medical Center中央 for a surgery手术.
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一个女人到 Beth Israel Deaconess 诊所做手术
08:21
Beth贝丝 Israel's以色列 in Boston波士顿.
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Beth Israel 在波士顿
08:23
It's the teaching教学 hospital醫院 for Harvard哈佛 --
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是哈佛大学的教学附属医院
08:25
one of the best最好 hospitals医院 in the country国家.
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全国数一数二的医疗中心
08:27
So this woman女人 comes in and she's taken采取 into the operating操作 room房间.
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这个女人被送进开刀房
08:30
She's anesthetized麻醉, the surgeon外科医生 does his thing --
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麻醉,外科医生做完手术
08:32
stitches her back up, sends发送 her out to the recovery复苏 room房间.
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缝合,将她送进恢复室
08:35
Everything seems似乎 to have gone走了 fine.
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一切看上去都很好
08:38
And she wakes醒来 up, and she looks容貌 down at herself她自己,
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她醒来,往自己身上一看
08:41
and she says, "Why is the wrong错误 side of my body身体 in bandages绷带?"
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说“为甚么我的左腿绑着绷带?”
08:45
Well the wrong错误 side of her body身体 is in bandages绷带
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她应该接受治疗的是右腿
08:48
because the surgeon外科医生 has performed执行 a major重大的 operation手术
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但为他做手术的外科医生
08:50
on her left leg instead代替 of her right one.
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却把刀开在左腿
08:54
When the vice president主席 for health健康 care关心 quality质量 at Beth贝丝 Israel以色列
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当副院长出来为医院的医疗质量
08:57
spoke about this incident事件,
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和这次意外做出解释时
09:00
he said something very interesting有趣.
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他说了句很有趣的话
09:03
He said, "For whatever随你 reason原因,
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他说“无论如何
09:06
the surgeon外科医生 simply只是 felt
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这位外科医生感觉
09:08
that he was on the correct正确 side of the patient患者."
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他开下的刀是在正确的一侧”
09:10
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
09:15
The point of this story故事
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故事的重点是
09:17
is that trusting信任的 too much in the feeling感觉
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相信自己的判断力
09:20
of being存在 on the correct正确 side of anything
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相信自己站在对的一边
09:23
can be very dangerous危险.
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是非常危险的
09:26
This internal内部 sense of rightness正当性
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我们心中时常感觉到的
09:29
that we all experience经验 so often经常
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理直气壮的感觉
09:31
is not a reliable可靠 guide指南
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在真实世界中
09:33
to what is actually其实 going on in the external外部 world世界.
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并不是个可靠的向导。
09:36
And when we act法案 like it is,
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当我们依此行事
09:38
and we stop entertaining娱乐 the possibility可能性 that we could be wrong错误,
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不再思考我们是否犯错
09:42
well that's when we end结束 up doing things
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我们就有可能
09:44
like dumping倾销 200 million百万 gallons加仑 of oil into the Gulf海湾 of Mexico墨西哥,
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把两百湾加仑的石油倒进墨西哥湾
09:48
or torpedoing鱼雷 the global全球 economy经济.
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或是颠覆世界经济
09:52
So this is a huge巨大 practical实际的 problem问题.
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这是个很实际的问题
09:55
But it's also a huge巨大 social社会 problem问题.
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这也是个很大的社会问题
09:58
Think for a moment时刻 about what it means手段 to feel right.
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“感觉对”究竟是什么意思
10:02
It means手段 that you think that your beliefs信仰
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这代表着你认为你的信念
10:04
just perfectly完美 reflect反映 reality现实.
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和真实是一致的
10:07
And when you feel that way,
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当你有这种感觉的时候
10:09
you've got a problem问题 to solve解决,
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你的问题就大了
10:11
which哪一个 is, how are you going to explain说明
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因为如果你是对的
10:13
all of those people who disagree不同意 with you?
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为甚么还有人和你持不同意见?
10:16
It turns out, most of us explain说明 those people the same相同 way,
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于是我们往往用同一种
10:19
by resorting诉诸 to a series系列 of unfortunate不幸的 assumptions假设.
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思考方式去解释这些异议
10:23
The first thing we usually平时 do when someone有人 disagrees不同意 with us
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第一是当他人不同意我们的说法
10:26
is we just assume承担 they're ignorant愚昧.
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我们便觉得他们无知
10:29
They don't have access访问 to the same相同 information信息 that we do,
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他们不像我们懂得这么多
10:31
and when we generously慷慨 share分享 that information信息 with them,
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当我们慷慨地和他们分享我们的知识
10:34
they're going to see the light and come on over to our team球队.
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他们便会理解,并加入我们的行列
10:37
When that doesn't work,
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如果不是这样
10:40
when it turns out those people have all the same相同 facts事实 that we do
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如果这些人和我们获得的信息一样多
10:42
and they still disagree不同意 with us,
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却仍然不认同我们
10:44
then we move移动 on to a second第二 assumption假设,
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我们便有了下一个定论
10:46
which哪一个 is that they're idiots白痴.
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那就是他们是白痴
10:48
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
10:50
They have all the right pieces of the puzzle难题,
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他们已经有了所有的信息
10:52
and they are too moronic鲁钝的 to put them together一起 correctly正确地.
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却笨到无法拼凑出正确的图像
10:55
And when that doesn't work,
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一旦第二个定论也不成立
10:57
when it turns out that people who disagree不同意 with us
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当这些反对我们的人
11:00
have all the same相同 facts事实 we do
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和我们有一样的信息
11:02
and are actually其实 pretty漂亮 smart聪明,
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又聪明
11:05
then we move移动 on to a third第三 assumption假设:
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我们便有了第三个结论
11:08
they know the truth真相,
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他们知道事实是甚么
11:11
and they are deliberately故意 distorting扭曲 it
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但却为了自己的好处
11:13
for their own拥有 malevolent坏心肠的 purposes目的.
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故意曲解真实。
11:17
So this is a catastrophe灾难.
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这真是个大灾难
11:19
This attachment附件 to our own拥有 rightness正当性
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我们的自以为是
11:22
keeps保持 us from preventing防止 mistakes错误
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让我们在最需要的时候
11:24
when we absolutely绝对 need to
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无法预防犯错
11:26
and causes原因 us to treat对待 each other terribly可怕.
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更让我们互相仇视
11:30
But to me, what's most baffling莫名其妙
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对我来说
11:32
and most tragic悲惨 about this
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最大的悲剧是
11:35
is that it misses错过 the whole整个 point of being存在 human人的.
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它让我们错失了身为人的珍贵意义
11:39
It's like we want to imagine想像
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那就像是想象
11:41
that our minds头脑 are just these perfectly完美 translucent半透明 windows视窗
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我们的心灵之窗完全透明
11:44
and we just gaze凝视 out of them
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我们向外观看
11:46
and describe描述 the world世界 as it unfolds展开.
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描述在我们之前展开的世界
11:49
And we want everybody每个人 else其他 to gaze凝视 out of the same相同 window窗口
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我们想要每个人和我们有一样的窗子
11:51
and see the exact精确 same相同 thing.
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对世界做出一样的观察
11:53
That is not true真正,
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那不是真的
11:55
and if it were, life would be incredibly令人难以置信 boring无聊.
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如果是,人生将会多么无聊
11:58
The miracle奇迹 of your mind心神
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心灵的神奇之处
12:01
isn't that you can see the world世界 as it is.
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不在你懂得这个世界是甚么样子
12:05
It's that you can see the world世界 as it isn't.
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而是去理解那些你不懂的地方
12:09
We can remember记得 the past过去,
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我们记得过去
12:11
and we can think about the future未来,
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思考未来
12:14
and we can imagine想像 what it's like
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我们想象
12:16
to be some other person in some other place地点.
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自己成为他人,在他方
12:19
And we all do this a little differently不同,
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我们的想象都有些不同
12:21
which哪一个 is why we can all look up at the same相同 night sky天空
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于是当我们抬头看同一个夜空
12:23
and see this
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我们看到这个
12:25
and also this
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这个
12:27
and also this.
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和这个
12:30
And yeah, it is also why we get things wrong错误.
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这也是我们搞错事情的原因
12:34
1,200 years年份 before Descartes笛卡尔 said his famous著名 thing
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在笛卡儿说出那句有名的”我思故我在“
12:36
about "I think therefore因此 I am,"
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的一千两百年前
12:38
this guy, St. Augustine奥古斯丁, satSAT down
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圣奥古斯丁,坐下来
12:40
and wrote "FallorFallor ergoERGO sum" --
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写下"Fallor ergo sum"
12:43
"I err therefore因此 I am."
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"我错故我在"
12:47
Augustine奥古斯丁 understood了解
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奥古斯丁懂得
12:49
that our capacity容量 to screw up,
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我们犯错的能力
12:51
it's not some kind of embarrassing尴尬 defect缺陷
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这并不是人性中
12:53
in the human人的 system系统,
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一个令人难堪的缺陷
12:55
something we can eradicate根除 or overcome克服.
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不是我们可以克服或消灭的
12:58
It's totally完全 fundamental基本的 to who we are.
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这是我们的本质
13:01
Because, unlike不像 God,
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因为我们不是上帝
13:03
we don't really know what's going on out there.
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我们不知道我们之外究竟发生了甚么
13:06
And unlike不像 all of the other animals动物,
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而不同于其它动物的是
13:09
we are obsessed痴迷 with trying to figure数字 it out.
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我们都疯狂地想找出解答
13:13
To me, this obsession困扰
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对我来说
13:15
is the source资源 and root
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这种寻找的冲动
13:17
of all of our productivity生产率 and creativity创造力.
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就是我们生产力和创造力的来源
13:20
Last year, for various各个 reasons原因,
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因为一些缘故
13:23
I found发现 myself listening to a lot of episodes发作
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去年我在广播上
13:25
of the Public上市 Radio无线电 show显示 This American美国 Life.
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听了很多集的"我们的美国人生"
13:27
And so I'm listening and I'm listening,
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我听着听着
13:30
and at some point, I start开始 feeling感觉
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突然发现
13:33
like all the stories故事 are about being存在 wrong错误.
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这些故事全和犯错有关
13:37
And my first thought was,
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我的第一个念头是
13:39
"I've lost丢失 it.
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“我完了
13:41
I've become成为 the crazy wrongness不正当 lady淑女.
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我写书写疯了
13:43
I just imagined想象 it everywhere到处,"
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四处都看到有关犯错的幻觉”
13:45
which哪一个 has happened发生.
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说真的是这样
13:47
But a couple一对 of months个月 later后来,
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但几个月后
13:49
I actually其实 had a chance机会 to interview访问 Ira艾拉 Glass玻璃, who's谁是 the host主办 of the show显示.
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我访问了那个广播节目的主持人 Ira Glass
13:51
And I mentioned提到 this to him,
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我向他提到这件事
13:53
and he was like, "No actually其实, that's true真正.
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他回答我“事实上
13:56
In fact事实," he says,
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你是对的”他说
13:58
"as a staff员工, we joke玩笑
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“我们这些工作人员总是
14:00
that every一切 single episode插曲 of our show显示
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开玩笑说每集节目之中的
14:02
has the same相同 crypto-theme加密主题.
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秘密主题都是一样的
14:05
And the crypto-theme加密主题 is:
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这个秘密主题就是
14:07
'I thought this one thing was going to happen发生
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"我以为这件事会这样发生
14:10
and something else其他 happened发生 instead代替.'
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结果其它事情发生了"
14:13
And the thing is," says Ira艾拉 Glass玻璃, "we need this.
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他说"但是,这就是我们需要的
14:16
We need these moments瞬间
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我们需要这些意外
14:18
of surprise and reversal翻转 and wrongness不正当
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这些颠倒和错误
14:20
to make these stories故事 work."
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这些故事才能成立。"
14:22
And for the rest休息 of us, audience听众 members会员,
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而我们身为观众
14:24
as listeners听众, as readers读者,
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听众、读者
14:27
we eat this stuff东东 up.
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我们吸收这些故事
14:29
We love things like plot情节 twists曲折
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我们喜欢故事转折
14:32
and red herrings鲱鱼 and surprise endings结局.
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令人惊讶的结局
14:35
When it comes to our stories故事,
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我们喜欢在故事里
14:38
we love being存在 wrong错误.
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看到犯错
14:41
But, you know, our stories故事 are like this
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但,故事会这样写
14:43
because our lives生活 are like this.
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是因为人生就是这样
14:46
We think this one thing is going to happen发生
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我们以为某些事情会这样发生
14:49
and something else其他 happens发生 instead代替.
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发生的却是其它事
14:52
George乔治 Bush衬套 thought he was going to invade入侵 Iraq伊拉克,
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小布什以为他入侵伊拉克
14:54
find a bunch of weapons武器 of mass destruction毁坏,
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会找到大规模毁灭性武器
14:56
liberate解放 the people and bring带来 democracy民主 to the Middle中间 East.
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解放中东百姓,为他们带来民主自由
15:00
And something else其他 happened发生 instead代替.
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但却不是这样
15:03
And Hosni胡斯尼 Mubarak穆巴拉克
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穆巴拉克以为
15:05
thought he was going to be the dictator独裁者 of Egypt埃及 for the rest休息 of his life,
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他到死都会是埃及的独裁者
15:07
until直到 he got too old or too sick生病
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一直到他年老或卧病
15:09
and could pass通过 the reigns统治 of power功率 onto his son儿子.
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再把他的权力交给下一代
15:12
And something else其他 happened发生 instead代替.
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但却不是这样
15:16
And maybe you thought
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或许你想过
15:18
you were going to grow增长 up and marry结婚 your high school学校 sweetheart爱人
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你会长大、嫁给你的初恋情人
15:20
and move移动 back to your hometown家乡 and raise提高 a bunch of kids孩子 together一起.
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搬回老家,生一群孩子
15:24
And something else其他 happened发生 instead代替.
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但却不是这样
15:27
And I have to tell you
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我必须说
15:29
that I thought I was writing写作 an incredibly令人难以置信 nerdy书呆子 book
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我以为我写的是一本很冷僻的书
15:31
about a subject学科 everybody每个人 hates
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有关一个人人讨厌的主题
15:33
for an audience听众 that would never materialize物质化.
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为一些从不存在的读者
15:36
And something else其他 happened发生 instead代替.
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但却不是这样
15:38
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
15:40
I mean, this is life.
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我们的人生
15:42
For good and for ill生病,
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无论好坏
15:44
we generate生成 these incredible难以置信 stories故事
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我们创造了啦
15:47
about the world世界 around us,
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那包围我们的世界
15:49
and then the world世界 turns around and astonishes让人惊讶 us.
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而世界转过头来,令我们大吃一惊
15:55
No offense罪行, but this entire整个 conference会议
347
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说真的,这整个会议
15:58
is an unbelievable难以置信的 monument纪念碑
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充斥着这样难以置信的时刻
16:00
to our capacity容量 to get stuff东东 wrong错误.
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我们一次又一次地意识到自己的错误
16:02
We just spent花费 an entire整个 week
350
947000
2000
我们花了整整一周
16:04
talking about innovations创新 and advancements进步
351
949000
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讨论创新,进步
16:06
and improvements改进,
352
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2000
和改善
16:08
but you know why we need all of those innovations创新
353
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3000
你知道我们为甚么需要这些创新
16:11
and advancements进步 and improvements改进?
354
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进步和改善吗?
16:13
Because half the stuff东东
355
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2000
因为其中有一半
16:15
that's the most mind-boggling令人难以置信 and world-altering世界改变 --
356
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来自最应该改变世界的
16:18
TEDTED 1998 --
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98年的TED
16:20
eh.
358
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16:22
(Laughter笑声)
359
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(笑声)
16:26
Didn't really work out that way, did it?
360
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真是出人意料之外啊,不是吗
16:28
(Laughter笑声)
361
973000
2000
(笑声)
16:30
Where's哪里 my jet喷射 pack, Chris克里斯?
362
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我的逃生火箭在哪,Chris?
16:33
(Laughter笑声)
363
978000
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(笑声)
16:37
(Applause掌声)
364
982000
5000
(掌声)
16:42
So here we are again.
365
987000
3000
于是我们又在这里
16:45
And that's how it goes.
366
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事情就是这样
16:47
We come up with another另一个 idea理念.
367
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我们重新想出其它点子
16:49
We tell another另一个 story故事.
368
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我们有了新的故事
16:52
We hold保持 another另一个 conference会议.
369
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我们开了另一个会议
16:55
The theme主题 of this one,
370
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这次的主题是
16:57
as you guys have now heard听说 seven million百万 times,
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2000
如果你还没有听到耳朵出油的话
16:59
is the rediscovery重新发现 of wonder奇迹.
372
1004000
2000
是重新找到想象的力量
17:01
And to me,
373
1006000
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对我来说
17:03
if you really want to rediscover重新发现 wonder奇迹,
374
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如果你真的想重新找到想象的力量
17:06
you need to step outside
375
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2000
你需要离开
17:08
of that tiny, terrified space空间 of rightness正当性
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6000
那个小小的、自我感觉良好的小圈圈
17:14
and look around at each other
377
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3000
看看彼此
17:17
and look out at the vastness广大
378
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3000
看看宇宙的
17:20
and complexity复杂 and mystery神秘
379
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3000
广大无垠
17:23
of the universe宇宙
380
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3000
复杂神秘
17:26
and be able能够 to say,
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3000
然后真正地说
17:29
"Wow, I don't know.
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4000
“哇,我不知道
17:33
Maybe I'm wrong错误."
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或许我错了。”
17:35
Thank you.
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谢谢各位
17:37
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
17:40
Thank you guys.
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谢谢
17:42
(Applause掌声)
387
1047000
3000
(掌声)
Translated by Coco Shen
Reviewed by Geoff Chen

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kathryn Schulz - Wrongologist
Kathryn Schulz is a staff writer for the New Yorker and is the author of "Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error."

Why you should listen

Kathryn Schulz is a journalist, author, and public speaker with a credible (if not necessarily enviable) claim to being the world's leading wrongologist.  She is the author of Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error. She was previously the book critic for New York Magazine; her writing has also appeared in the New York Times Magazine, Rolling Stone, TIME Magazine, the Boston Globe, the "Freakonomics" blog of The New York Times, The Nation, Foreign Policy, and the New York Times Book Review, among other publications. She is the former editor of the online environmental magazine Grist, and a former reporter and editor for The Santiago Times, of Santiago, Chile, where she covered environmental, labor, and human rights issues. She was a 2004 recipient of the Pew Fellowship in International Journalism (now the International Reporting Project), and has reported from throughout Central and South America, Japan, and, most recently, the Middle East. A graduate of Brown University and a former Ohioan, Oregonian and Brooklynite, she currently lives in New York's Hudson Valley.

More profile about the speaker
Kathryn Schulz | Speaker | TED.com

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