TED@State Street Boston
Michael Metcalfe: A provocative way to finance the fight against climate change
迈克尔•梅特卡夫: 资助气候变化之战的妙招
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我们会不计一切代价来应对气候变化吗？回想2008年，为了应对全球金融危机，各国政府承诺为了稳定金融而“不惜一切代价”，并发行了价值2500亿美元的国际货币来阻止经济崩溃。在这场演讲中，金融学家迈克尔•梅特卡夫建议我们采用类似的非传统手段来资助环境项目，共同应对全球气候问题。
Michael Metcalfe - Financial expert
A senior managing director and head of global macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, Michael Metcalfe provides high quality capital flow research. Full bio
A senior managing director and head of global macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, Michael Metcalfe provides high quality capital flow research. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Will we do whatever it takes
to tackle climate change?
to tackle climate change?
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我们能否做到不惜一切代价来应对气候变化？
00:19
I come at this question
not as a green campaigner,
not as a green campaigner,
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我不是作为环保倡议者来思考这个问题，
00:22
in fact, I confess to be rather
hopeless at recycling.
hopeless at recycling.
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事实上，我对回收利用不抱希望。
00:25
I come at it as a professional observer
of financial policy making
of financial policy making
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我是一名专业的金融政策观察者，
00:30
and someone that wonders
how history will judge us.
how history will judge us.
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同时也想知道后世将如何评价我们。
00:36
One day,
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将来有一天，
00:37
this ring that belonged to my grandfather
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我爷爷的这枚戒指
00:41
will pass to my son, Charlie.
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会传给我儿子查理。
我很想知道我儿子那一代人
00:44
And I wonder what his generation
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00:46
and perhaps the one that follows
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和他们的下一代
00:49
will make of the two lives
this ring has worked.
this ring has worked.
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将如何度过他们的人生。
00:54
My grandfather was a coal miner.
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我的爷爷是位矿工
00:58
In his time,
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在他那个年代，
01:00
burning fossil fuels for energy
and for allowing economies to develop
and for allowing economies to develop
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靠燃烧化石燃料获得能源并推动经济发展
01:05
was accepted.
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是可以接受的。
01:07
We know now that that is not the case
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尽管今天我们知道那样做是不对的
01:10
because of the greenhouse
gases that coal produces.
gases that coal produces.
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因为煤炭燃烧会产生温室气体。
01:15
But today,
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但如今，
01:16
I fear it's the industry in which I work
that will be judged more harshly
that will be judged more harshly
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恐怕我所从事的行业，会被认为
01:20
because of its impact on the climate --
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对气候的危害更大——
01:23
more harshly than
my grandfather's industry, even.
my grandfather's industry, even.
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以至于我们会背负更重的骂名。
01:26
I work, of course,
in the banking industry,
in the banking industry,
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刚刚说过了，我在银行业工作，
01:28
which will be remembered
for its crisis in 2008 --
for its crisis in 2008 --
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而这个行业因为2008年金融危机永垂史册——
01:33
a crisis that diverted the attention
and finances of governments
and finances of governments
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这场危机将政府的注意力和财政支出
01:38
away from some really, really
important promises,
important promises,
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从真正重要的事情上转移了，
01:44
like promises made at the Copenhagen
Climate Summit in 2009
Climate Summit in 2009
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比如政府在2009年
哥本哈根气候大会上作出的承诺，
哥本哈根气候大会上作出的承诺，
01:49
to mobilize 100 billion dollars a year
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每年调动1000亿美元
01:52
to help developing countries
move away from burning fossil fuels
move away from burning fossil fuels
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帮助发展中国家停止使用化石燃料
01:56
and transition to using cleaner energy.
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转而使用更清洁的能源。
02:00
That promise is already in jeopardy.
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这一承诺早已岌岌可危。
02:03
And that's a real problem,
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这是个很严重的问题，
02:05
because that transition
to cleaner energy needs to happen
to cleaner energy needs to happen
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因为实现能源清洁化
02:08
sooner rather than later.
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刻不容缓。
02:11
Firstly,
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首先，
02:12
because greenhouse gases, once released,
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温室气体一旦产生，
02:14
stay in the atmosphere for decades.
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会在大气中停留数十年。
02:17
And secondly,
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其次，
02:18
if a developing economy builds
its power grid around fossil fuels today,
its power grid around fossil fuels today,
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如果今天，发展中国家
使用化石燃料建立电网，
使用化石燃料建立电网，
02:24
it's going to be way more costly
to change later on.
to change later on.
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将来再想转变，代价会更为不菲。
02:28
So for the climate,
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因此将来回顾历史，
02:30
history may judge
that the banking crisis happened
that the banking crisis happened
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会发现这场金融危机来得真不凑巧，
02:34
at just the wrong time.
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对解决气候问题不利。
02:36
The story need not be this gloomy, though.
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但我们倒不必过于悲观。
02:41
Three years ago,
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三年前,
02:43
I argued that governments
could use the tools
could use the tools
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我呼吁政府使用
02:46
deployed to save the financial system
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挽救金融系统的工具
02:49
to meet other global challenges.
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来应对其他全球性挑战.
02:51
And these arguments are getting
stronger, not weaker, with time.
stronger, not weaker, with time.
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随着时间推移，这一呼声
并未减弱，而是越来越强。
并未减弱，而是越来越强。
02:58
Let's take a brief reminder
of what those tools looked like.
of what those tools looked like.
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让我们来回忆一下有些什么样的工具。
03:03
When the financial crisis hit in 2008,
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2008年金融危机发生时，
03:06
the central banks of the US and UK
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美国和英国的中央银行
03:09
began buying bonds issued
by their own governments
by their own governments
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开始购买本国政府发行的债券，
03:12
in a policy known
as "quantitative easing."
as "quantitative easing."
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这项政策叫做“量化宽松”。
03:15
Depending on what happens
to those bonds when they mature,
to those bonds when they mature,
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当这些债券到期时，
03:19
this is money printing by another name.
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我们发现，这就是在增印钞票。
03:22
And boy, did they print.
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印的还真不少。
单单美国就相当于增发了4万亿美元。
03:24
The US alone created four trillion
dollars' worth of its own currency.
dollars' worth of its own currency.
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03:29
This was not done in isolation.
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而且不单单是美国一家。
03:31
In a remarkable act of cooperation,
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国际货币基金组织的188个成员国，
03:34
the 188 countries that make up
the International Monetary Fund, the IMF,
the International Monetary Fund, the IMF,
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紧密团结，精诚合作，
03:38
agreed to issue 250 billion
dollars' worth of their own currency --
dollars' worth of their own currency --
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相当于增发了2500亿美元的货币——
03:42
the Special Drawing Right --
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以“特别提款权”的形式——
03:45
to boost reserves around the world.
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从而在世界范围内增加储备。
03:47
When the financial crisis moved to Europe,
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当金融危机蔓延至欧洲，
03:51
the European Central Bank
President, Mario Draghi,
President, Mario Draghi,
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欧洲中央银行行长马里奥·德拉吉，
03:55
promised "to do whatever it takes."
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承诺“不惜一切代价”。
03:59
And they did.
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他们确实也这么做了。
04:01
The Bank of Japan repeated those words --
that exact same commitment --
that exact same commitment --
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日本银行也做出了同样的承诺，
04:06
to do "whatever it takes"
to reflate their economy.
to reflate their economy.
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“不惜一切代价” 来复苏经济。
04:11
In both cases,
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这两个例子中，
04:13
"whatever it takes" meant
trillions of dollars more
trillions of dollars more
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所谓的“代价”就是增发数以万亿计的纸币，
04:17
in money-printing policies
that continue today.
that continue today.
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这一政策今天还在继续。
04:21
What this shows
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这说明，
04:23
is that when faced
with some global challenges,
with some global challenges,
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在面对某些全球性挑战时，
04:28
policy makers are able to act
collectively, with urgency,
collectively, with urgency,
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政策制定者能够在危急时刻集体行动，
04:32
and run the risks of unconventional
policies like money printing.
policies like money printing.
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剑走偏锋，制定出类似增发货币这样的政策。
04:39
So, let's go back
to that original question:
to that original question:
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好，让我们回到开始的问题：
04:45
Can we print money for climate finance?
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我们可以增发货币用于气候融资吗？
04:49
Three years ago,
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三年前，
04:50
the idea of using money in this way
was something of a taboo.
was something of a taboo.
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以这样的方式使用资金是一种禁忌。
04:54
Once you break down and dismantle the idea
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一旦你的观念被转变，
04:57
that money is a finite resource,
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不再认为钱是有限资源，
05:00
governments can quickly get overwhelmed
by demands from their people
by demands from their people
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政府很快就会就会被人民的需求淹没，
05:05
to print more and more
money for other causes:
money for other causes:
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为了各种原因不停增发货币：
05:08
education, health care, welfare --
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教育、医疗、福利——
05:10
even defense.
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甚至国防。
05:12
And there are some truly terrible
historical examples of money printing --
historical examples of money printing --
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而增发货币会带来可怕后果，
历史上有很多例子——
历史上有很多例子——
05:17
uncontrolled money printing --
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当然我指的是滥发货币——
05:20
leading to hyperinflation.
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会导致恶性通货膨胀。
05:22
Think: Weimar Republic in 1930;
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回想一下1930年的魏玛共和国，
05:26
Zimbabwe more recently, in 2008,
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以及更近一些的，2008年的津巴布韦，
05:29
when the prices of basic goods
like bread are doubling every day.
like bread are doubling every day.
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生活必需品，比如面包，价格每天翻番。
05:34
But all of this is moving
the public debate forward,
the public debate forward,
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但这一切都在引发公众广泛讨论，
05:39
so much so, that money printing
for the people is now discussed openly
for the people is now discussed openly
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以至于现在人们公开讨论增发货币，
05:45
in the financial media, and even
in some political manifestos.
in some political manifestos.
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在金融媒体上，甚至在某些政治宣言中。
05:50
But it's important the debate
doesn't stop here,
doesn't stop here,
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但更为重要的是，
05:52
with printing national currencies.
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这些讨论并未局限于增发本国货币。
05:57
Because climate change
is a shared global problem,
is a shared global problem,
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由于气候变化是全球性问题，
06:01
there are some really compelling reasons
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我们有特别紧迫的理由，
06:04
why we should be printing
that international currency
that international currency
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来增发国际货币，
06:08
that's issued by the IMF,
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支持国际货币基金组织，
06:10
to fund it.
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应对气候问题。
06:11
The Special Drawing Right, or SDR,
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特别提款权，也就是SDR
06:15
is the IMF's electronic unit of account
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是国际货币基金组织的电子记账单位，
06:18
that governments use to transfer
funds amongst each other.
funds amongst each other.
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用于政府间的资金转移。
06:23
Think of it as a peer-to-peer
payment network,
payment network,
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可以把它想象成一个对等式支付网络，
06:26
like Bitcoin, but for governments.
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就像比特币一样，只不过用在政府间。
06:30
And it's truly global.
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而且它真正具有全球性。
06:33
Each of the 188 members
of the IMF hold SDR quotas
of the IMF hold SDR quotas
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188个成员国都有SDR配额
06:38
as part of their foreign
exchange reserves.
exchange reserves.
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作为本国外汇储备的一部分。
06:41
These are national stores of wealth
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它们是国家的财富储备，
06:44
that countries keep to protect
themselves against currency crises.
themselves against currency crises.
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可以帮助国家应对货币危机。
06:48
And that global nature is why,
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正是这全球性的特点，
06:51
at the height of the financial
crisis in 2009,
crisis in 2009,
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使得国际货币基金组织在2009年，
06:55
the IMF issued those extra
250 billion dollars --
250 billion dollars --
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也就是金融危机最严重的时候
增发了2500亿美元——
增发了2500亿美元——
06:59
because it served
as a collective global action
as a collective global action
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因为这是一次全球性的集体行动
07:02
that safeguarded countries
large and small in one fell swoop.
large and small in one fell swoop.
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一举保护了大大小小的国家，免受冲击。
07:09
But here --
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但接下来，
07:10
here's the intriguing part.
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才是真正耐人寻味的部分。
07:13
More than half of those extra SDRs
that were printed in 2009 --
that were printed in 2009 --
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2009年增发的SDR，其中一大半——
07:18
150 billion dollars' worth --
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大约有1500亿美元——
分配给了发达国家，
07:20
went to developed market countries
who, for the most part,
who, for the most part,
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但它们中的大部分
并不太需要这些外汇储备，
并不太需要这些外汇储备，
07:24
have a modest need
for these foreign exchange reserves,
for these foreign exchange reserves,
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07:27
because they have flexible exchange rates.
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因为这些国家执行浮动汇率制度。
07:30
So those extra reserves
that were printed in 2009,
that were printed in 2009,
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因此，这些2009年增发的配额，
07:34
in the end, for developed
market countries at least,
market countries at least,
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对于发达国家来说，
07:38
weren't really needed.
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并没有太大意义。
07:40
And they remain unused today.
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直到今天也没有被使用。
07:43
So here's an idea.
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于是我产生了一个想法。
07:45
As a first step,
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首先，
07:47
why don't we start
spending those unused,
spending those unused,
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为什么我们不将这些2009年增发的，
07:50
those extra SDRs
that were printed in 2009,
that were printed in 2009,
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尚未使用的特别提款权，
07:53
to combat climate change?
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用来应对气候变化？
07:55
They could, for example,
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比如，
07:57
be used to buy bonds issued
by the UN's Green Climate Fund.
by the UN's Green Climate Fund.
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用这笔钱购买联合国发行的绿色气候基金。
08:02
This was a fund created in 2009,
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绿色气候基金设立于2009年，
08:05
following that climate
agreement in Copenhagen.
agreement in Copenhagen.
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依据哥本哈根大会气候协议设立。
08:09
And it was designed to channel funds
towards developing countries
towards developing countries
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其目的是为发展中国家筹集资金
08:14
to meet their climate projects.
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以支持他们的气候项目。
08:16
It's been one of the most
successful funds of its type,
successful funds of its type,
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作为同类基金中最成功的一只，
08:19
raising almost 10 billion dollars.
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它已经筹集了近百亿美元。
08:21
But if we use those extra
SDRs that were issued,
SDRs that were issued,
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如果我们能将增发的SDR使用起来，
08:25
it helps governments get back on track,
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就可以帮助各国政府回归正途，
08:28
to meet that promise
of 100 billion dollars a year
of 100 billion dollars a year
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实现因金融风暴而拖欠的
08:31
that was derailed by the financial crisis.
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每年1000亿美元的承诺。
08:35
It could also --
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除此以外——
08:37
it could also serve as a test case.
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我们可以将其视为一次测试。
08:42
If the inflationary consequences
of using SDRs in this way are benign,
of using SDRs in this way are benign,
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如果这么使用SDR不会造成恶性通货膨胀，
08:48
it could be used to justify
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那么我们有理由假设，
08:50
the additional, extra issuance
of SDRs, say, every five years,
of SDRs, say, every five years,
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如果每五年增发一次SDR，
08:55
again, with the commitment
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当然，这也需要发达国家承诺，
08:57
that developed-market countries
would direct their share
would direct their share
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将自己得到的配额，
09:02
of the new reserves
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直接转给
09:03
to the Green Climate Fund.
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绿色气候基金。
09:07
Printing international money
in this way has several advantages
in this way has several advantages
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这样发行国际货币比发行本国货币
09:10
over printing national currencies.
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有更多好处。
09:13
The first is it's really easy to argue
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首先，很明显，
09:16
that spending money to mitigate
climate change benefits everyone.
climate change benefits everyone.
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将这笔钱花在应对气候变化上，
对所有人都有益。
对所有人都有益。
09:21
No one section of society benefits
from the printing press over another.
from the printing press over another.
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没有哪个国家会因为
多印了些钞票而更加得利。
多印了些钞票而更加得利。
09:25
That problem of competing
claims is mitigated.
claims is mitigated.
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因此大家不用考虑竞争的问题。
09:29
It's also fair to say
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也可以这么说，
09:30
that because it takes so many countries
to agree to issue these extra SDRs,
to agree to issue these extra SDRs,
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正因为众多国家一致同意增发SDR，
09:35
it's highly unlikely that money printing
would get out of control.
would get out of control.
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这件事就不太容易失控。
09:40
What you end up with
is a collective, global action
is a collective, global action
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最终，我们看到的是一项全球性的集体行动，
09:46
aimed -- and it's controlled
global action --
global action --
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并受全球各国监管，
09:50
aimed at a global good.
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瞄准的是全球共同利益。
09:53
And,
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此外，
09:54
as we've learned
with the money-printing schemes,
with the money-printing schemes,
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因为我们已经了解了货币发行的机制，
09:57
whatever concerns we have
can be allayed by rules.
can be allayed by rules.
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任何问题和顾虑，都可以通过规则来排除。
10:00
So, for example,
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比如说，
10:02
the issuance of these extra SDRs
every five years could be capped,
every five years could be capped,
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可以限制每五年所发行的SDR的总金额，
10:07
such that this international currency
is never more than five percent
is never more than five percent
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使其不超过
全球外汇储备总量的5%。
10:13
of global foreign exchange reserves.
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10:15
That's important because it would allay
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这点很重要，
10:17
well, let's say, the ridiculous
concerns that the US might have
concerns that the US might have
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因为这样会减轻美国的担忧，
10:21
that the SDR could ever challenge
the dollar's dominant role
the dollar's dominant role
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他们老担心增发的SDR
会挑战美元在国际金融市场的主导地位。
10:26
in international finance.
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10:28
And in fact,
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实际上，
10:30
I think the only thing that the SDR
would likely steal from the dollar
would likely steal from the dollar
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在这种体制下，SDR有可能对美元产生的
10:33
under this scheme
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唯一的影响
就是盗用美元的外号，“绿钞票”。
10:34
is its nickname, the "greenback."
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10:38
Because even with that cap in place,
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因为，即使有发行限额的规定，
国际货币基金组织
依旧会追踪其发行状况-——
依旧会追踪其发行状况-——
10:42
the IMF could have
followed up its issuance --
followed up its issuance --
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10:45
its massive issuance of SDRs in 2009 --
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无论是2009年的2500亿——
10:48
with a further 200 billion
dollars of SDRs in 2014.
dollars of SDRs in 2014.
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还是2014年追加的2000亿。
10:54
So hypothetically,
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因此，从理论上说，
发达国家能够为绿色气候基金
10:58
that would mean that developed countries
could have contributed
could have contributed
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贡献价值约3000亿美元
11:01
up to 300 billion dollars' worth of SDRs
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11:05
to the Green Climate Fund.
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的特别提款权。
11:08
That's 30 times what it has today.
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金额是该基金目前筹款额的30倍。
11:11
And you know,
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而且，
11:12
as spectacular as that sounds,
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尽管这听起来已经相当可观，
11:15
it's only just beginning to look
like "whatever it takes."
like "whatever it takes."
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却刚刚才有一点“不惜一切代价”的味道。
11:21
And just to think what amazing things
could be done with that money,
could be done with that money,
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想想看，我们可以用这笔钱完成多大的壮举，
11:24
consider this:
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举个例子：
11:26
in 2009,
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在2009年，
11:28
Norway promised one billion dollars
of its reserves to Brazil
of its reserves to Brazil
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挪威承诺，给巴西10亿美元的外汇储备，
只要巴西能达成减少森林砍伐的目标。
11:33
if they followed through
on their goals on deforestation.
on their goals on deforestation.
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11:38
That program has since delivered
a 70 percent reduction in deforestation
a 70 percent reduction in deforestation
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这一计划实施十年时间，
已经减少了70%的森林砍伐。
11:44
in the past decade.
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11:46
That's saving 3.2 billion tons
of carbon dioxide emissions,
of carbon dioxide emissions,
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相当于减少了32亿吨二氧化碳排放，
11:51
which is the equivalent of taking
all American cars off the roads
all American cars off the roads
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相当于让全美国所有的汽车
11:55
for three whole years.
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停驶整整3年。
11:59
So what could we do
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想象一下，
12:01
with 300 other pay-for-performance
climate projects like that,
climate projects like that,
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如果全球再有300个
类似的“按劳取酬”的气候项目，
类似的“按劳取酬”的气候项目，
12:06
organized on a global scale?
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该是多么棒的一件事。
12:09
We could take cars off the roads
for a generation.
for a generation.
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相当于让整整一代人的车辆停驶。
12:13
So,
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因此，
12:15
let's not quibble about whether we can
afford to fund climate change.
afford to fund climate change.
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不要再纠结我们是否
有经济能力来应对气候变化。
有经济能力来应对气候变化。
真正的问题是：
12:20
The real question is:
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我们是否足够关心下一代
12:23
Do we care enough about future generations
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愿意冒很大的风险去拯救气候。
12:26
to take the very same policy risks
we took to save the financial system?
we took to save the financial system?
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12:32
After all,
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毕竟，
我们能够这么做，
12:34
we could do it,
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我们曾经成功过，我们还将继续努力。
12:36
we did do it
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12:37
and we are doing it today.
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我们必须真的“不惜一切代价去做”。
12:39
We must, must, must do
"whatever it takes."
"whatever it takes."
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谢谢大家。
12:45
Thank you.
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12:46
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Metcalfe - Financial expertA senior managing director and head of global macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, Michael Metcalfe provides high quality capital flow research.
Why you should listen
Michael Metcalfe leads State Street Global Markets Macro Strategy team, focusing on how the behavior of investors and online retailers can help with investment decisions. In this role, he regularly consults with many of the world’s largest institutional investors as well as policy makers. He develops tools to help analyze markets, and regularly advises portfolio managers from some of the world’s largest pension and hedge funds.
Michael Metcalfe | Speaker | TED.com