EG 2007
Peter Hirshberg: The web is more than "better TV"
Peter Hirshberg 论电视和互联网
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回望媒体和技术融合的历史是非常有吸引力的过程。Peter Hirshberg分享了硅谷一些关键的经验，以及解释了为什么互联网会比那些“改进的电视”好很多
Peter Hirshberg - Entrepreneur, marketer
A Silicon Valley executive, entrepreneur and marketing specialist, Peter Hirshberg might just be the definitive voice on how new technology affects business and culture. Full bio
A Silicon Valley executive, entrepreneur and marketing specialist, Peter Hirshberg might just be the definitive voice on how new technology affects business and culture. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
Well, good morning.
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大家早上好
00:18
You know, the computer and television both recently turned 60,
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你们都知道 电脑和电视都接近60岁了
00:22
and today I'd like to talk about their relationship.
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而今天我很想跟大家谈谈他们之间的关系
00:26
Despite their middle age, if you've been following the themes
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尽管他们已经到中年了 但如果你读懂这次的主题
00:28
of this conference or the entertainment industry,
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在本次讲座或者娱乐工业中
00:31
it's pretty clear that one has been picking on the other.
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很明显他们中的一个正侵蚀着另外一个
00:34
So it's about time that we talked about how the computer ambushed television,
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所以现在是时候我们来谈谈电脑是如何侵蚀着电视的
00:39
or why the invention of the atomic bomb
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或者 为什么原子弹的发明
00:42
unleashed forces that lead to the writers' strike.
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带来的压力会导致作家的罢工
00:45
And it's not just what these are doing to each other,
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这并不是他们相互之间斗争
00:48
but it's what the audience thinks that really frames this matter.
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但这是观众想确实存在的事情
00:52
To get a sense of this,
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来明白这一点
00:53
and it's been a theme we've talked about all week,
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这是一个星期以来我们一直谈论的事
00:55
I recently talked to a bunch of tweeners.
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最近我跟很多中立者谈过
00:57
I wrote on cards: "television," "radio," "MySpace," "Internet," "PC."
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我在卡纸上写着 电视 广播 MySpace 和上网电脑
01:02
And I said, just arrange these, from what's important to you
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然后我说 排列这些词语 根据哪些对你说是重要的
01:04
and what's not, and then tell me why.
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哪些不是 然后解释给我听原因
01:06
Let's listen to what happens when they get to the portion
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来听听什么事情发生 当他们来到
01:09
of the discussion on television.
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谈论电视的这一部分
01:11
(Video) Girl 1: Well, I think it's important but, like, not necessary
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视频：我觉得这是很重要的 不过不是必须的
01:18
because you can do a lot of other stuff with your free time than watch programs.
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因为当你有空的时候 比起看电视 你还有更多的东西要做
01:24
Peter Hirshberg: Which is more fun, Internet or TV?
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你觉得哪个更有意思？因特网还是电视？
01:26
Girls: Internet.
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因特网
01:28
Girl 2: I think we -- the reasons, one of the reasons we put computer before TV
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我想这就是我们为什么把互联网摆在电视前
01:31
is because nowadays, like, we have TV shows on the computer.
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因为现在 例如 我们可以把电视节目放在电脑里放
01:35
(Girl 3: Oh, yeah.)
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噢 是的
01:36
Girl 2: And then you can download onto your iPod.
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你也可把它下载到你的iPod
01:37
PH: Would you like to be the president of a TV network?
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你想不想成为一个电视网的总裁呢？
01:41
Girl 4: I wouldn't like it.
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我不想
01:43
Girl 2: That would be so stressful.
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那压力太大了
01:45
Girl 5: No.
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没有
01:46
PH: How come?
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为什么这样想呢
01:47
Girl 5: Because they're going to lose all their money eventually.
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因为他们最终都会损失很多金钱
01:50
Girl 3: Like the stock market, it goes up and down and stuff.
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就像股票市场一样 他们会升 会跌诸如此类
01:53
I think right now the computers will be at the top
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我想现在电脑是在位置最高
01:55
and everything will be kind of going down and stuff.
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而其每一样东西都会跌这样
01:58
PH: There's been an uneasy relationship between the TV business
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Peter Hirshberg:这就是电视产业
02:04
and the tech business, really ever since they both turned about 30.
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和这个技术产业 真的他们就要快三十岁了
02:07
We go through periods of enthrallment,
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我们都曾经历沉迷的时代
02:11
followed by reactions in boardrooms, in the finance community
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跟随着在金融团体的会议室中的反应
02:14
best characterized as, what's the finance term? Ick pooey.
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那个金融的词语能最贴切去形容呢？Ick pooey
02:19
Let me give you an example of this. The year is 1976,
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让我给你们一些例子。这是1976年
02:21
and Warner buys Atari because video games are on the rise.
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华纳想收购Atari 因为当时视频游戏正处于上升时期
02:24
The next year they march forward and they introduce Qube,
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接下辖的一年 他们继续向前迈进 他们引入了Qube
02:27
the first interactive cable TV system,
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这是第一个有线互动电视系统
02:30
and the New York Times heralds this
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而纽约时报也报道了它
02:32
as telecommunications moving to the home,
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就好像电子通信进入每家每户一样
02:34
convergence, great things are happening.
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融合 伟大的事情正发生着
02:36
Everybody in the East Coast gets in the pictures --
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每一个住在东部海边的人都拍进画面中
02:38
Citicorp, Penney, RCA -- all getting into this big vision.
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花旗 彭尼和美国无线电公司也出现在这个如此巨大的画面中
02:41
By the way, this is about when I enter the picture.
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随便来说，这正是我走进时代背景的时候。
02:43
I'm going to do a summer internship at Time Warner.
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我打算到时代华纳做暑期工
02:45
That summer I'm all -- I'm at Warner that summer --
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那个夏天 我基本上都呆在华纳
02:47
I'm all excited to work on convergence, and then the bottom falls out.
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我很兴奋能做一些融合的东西 但接下来就垮台了
02:51
Doesn't work out too well for them, they lose money.
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运行效果不是很好 他们在亏本
02:54
And I had a happy brush with convergence
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我很高兴能得到这次聚合的洗礼
02:57
until, kind of, Warner basically has to liquidate the whole thing.
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知道 华纳虽然根本上清算这件事
03:01
That's when I leave graduate school, and I can't work in New York
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之后我毕业离开了学校 但我不能在纽约工作
03:05
on kind of entertainment and technology
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在这种娱乐和技术下
03:07
because I have to be exiled to California, where the remaining jobs are,
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因为我不得不来到加州 去寻找那里剩余的工作
03:11
almost to the sea, to go to work for Apple Computer.
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几乎穿洋过海 最终我到了苹果公司工作
03:14
Warner, of course, writes off more than 400 million dollars.
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华南因为这次损失了四亿的美金
03:18
Four hundred million dollars, which was real money back in the '70s.
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四亿的美金 在70年代是一个大数目
03:22
But they were onto something and they got better at it.
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但他们已经有所成绩 并且越来越好
03:25
By the year 2000, the process was perfected. They merged with AOL,
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在2000年他们发展很好。他们并购了AOL
03:29
and in just four years, managed to shed about 200 billion dollars
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用了4年的时间改进管理 他们赚了2万亿的美金
03:34
of market capitalization, showing that they'd actually mastered the art
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根据市场走势 他们正确确实掌握这个艺术
03:39
of applying Moore's law of successive miniaturization
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成功应用了摩尔定律 制造了微型的成功应用了摩尔定律 制造了
03:43
to their balance sheet.
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他们的微型资产负债表
03:45
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:46
Now, I think that one reason that the media and the entertainment communities,
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现在，我想媒体和娱乐机构
03:51
or the media community, is driven so crazy by the tech community
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或者媒体集团做出这样的原因是他们被技术组织驱使得太疯狂了
03:55
is that tech folks talk differently.
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技术人员谈论的是不同的东西
03:57
You know, for 50 years, we've talked about changing the world,
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你知道，这50年来 我们一直在谈论改变世界
04:00
about total transformation.
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这是关于转变的问题
04:02
For 50 years, it's been about hopes and fears
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这50年里充满了希望和恐惧
04:04
and promises of a better world. And I got to thinking,
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和承诺创造一个更好的世界 我想
04:07
you know, who else talks that way?
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你知道 谁会这样说
04:10
And the answer is pretty clearly --
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答案是非常清楚的
04:12
it's people in religion and in politics.
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对于那些信仰宗教和从事政治的人说
04:15
And so I realized that actually the tech world is best understood,
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我意识到技术的世界是最容易理解的
04:19
not as a business cycle, but as a messianic movement.
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这不是一个商业循环 而是一个救世运动
04:21
We promise something great, we evangelize it,
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我们承诺某些伟大的东西，我们传道这些
04:24
we're going to change the world. It doesn't work out too well,
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我们要改变世界 但是结果不是很好
04:27
and so we actually go back to the well and start all over again,
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我们只好重新回到起点 再重新开始
04:31
as the people in New York and L.A. look on in absolute, morbid astonishment.
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就像在纽约和洛杉矶的人一样 看上去绝对的病态惊讶
04:36
But it's this irrational view of things that drives us on to the next thing.
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这个很无理的观点是驱使我们注意到另外一个事物上
04:39
So, what I'd like to ask is, if the computer is becoming a principal tool
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因此 我喜欢去问 如果电脑便成为
04:43
of media and entertainment, how did we get here?
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媒体和娱乐工具，这是怎样变成这样的？
04:46
I mean, how did a machine that was built for accounting
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我的意思是 一个本来是为了计算
04:48
and artillery morph into media?
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和改变大炮发射的机器怎会进入到媒体的圈子里？
04:51
Of course, the first computer was built just after World War II
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当然 第一部电脑就是建在刚刚二战之后
04:53
to solve military problems, but things got really interesting
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来解决军队的问题， 但事情却在
04:58
just a couple of years later -- 1949 with Whirlwind,
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几年之后变得有趣 在1949旋风式的速度
05:03
built at MIT's Lincoln Lab. Jay Forrester was building this for the Navy,
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建设了MIT的林肯试验室，Jay Forester为海军建造了它
05:08
but you can't help but see that the creator of this machine had in mind
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但你情不自禁地想象着这个创新的机器会是怎样的呢
05:11
a machine that might actually be a potential media star.
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一部机器竟然成为了媒体的明日之星
05:15
So take a look at what happens when the foremost journalist
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接下来我们看看当一个资深的电视界记者
05:18
of early television meets one of the foremost computer pioneers,
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遇上了最早的电脑发展人士
05:22
and the computer begins to express itself.
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然后电脑开始解释自己
05:24
(Video) Journalist: It's a Whirlwind electronic computer.
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视频：这是一台Whirlwind电子电脑
05:27
With considerable trepidation,
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有着可想而知的恐惧
05:29
we undertake to interview this new machine.
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我们承担采访这台机器的任务
05:31
Jay Forrester: Hello New York, this is Cambridge.
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你好纽约，这是芝加哥
05:35
And this is the oscilloscope of the Whirlwind electronic computer.
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而这是Whirlwind电脑的示波器
05:39
Would you like if I used the machine?
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如果我用这台机器 你是否愿意呢？
05:41
Journalist: Yes, of course. But I have an idea, Mr. Forrester.
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那当然。不过我有一个主意，Mr.Forrester
05:44
Since this computer was made
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自从这台电脑制造以后
05:45
in conjunction with the Office of Naval Research,
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一直与海军研究所保持协议
05:47
why don't we switch down to the Pentagon in Washington
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为什么不在华盛顿的五角大楼使用它
05:49
and let the Navy's research chief, Admiral Bolster,
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让海军的研究所所长， 海军将领Bolster
05:52
give Whirlwind the workout?
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拿出Whirlwind做实验
05:54
Calvin Bolster: Well, Ed, this problem concerns the Navy's Viking rocket.
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好，Ed，这个问题主要关心的海军的维京盗火箭
05:59
This rocket goes up 135 miles into the sky.
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这个火箭可以上升到135米的半空中
06:03
Now, at the standard rate of fuel consumption,
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现在，我们燃油消费标准
06:06
I would like to see the computer trace the flight path of this rocket
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我很愿意通过电脑来看火箭的飞行线路
06:10
and see how it can determine, at any instant,
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来看看他怎样决定的，在任何时刻
06:14
say at the end of 40 seconds, the amount of fuel remaining,
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说在最后40秒，剩下燃油的总量
06:18
and the velocity at that set instant.
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在那瞬间的速率
06:21
JF: Over on the left-hand side,
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在左手边
06:23
you will notice fuel consumption decreasing as the rocket takes off.
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你可以看到燃油在火箭升空后一路减少
06:27
And on the right-hand side, there's a scale
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在右手边，有一个标杆
06:29
that shows the rocket's velocity.
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可以指示火箭的速度
06:31
The rocket's position is shown by the trajectory
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火箭的位置可以通过轨迹来展示
06:35
that we're now looking at.
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我们现在可以看到
06:37
And as it reaches the peak of its trajectory,
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我们看到它到达了他弹道的顶点
06:41
the velocity, you will notice, has dropped off to a minimum.
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速度，你可以注意的到，它变成了一个很小的数字
06:43
Then, as the rocket dives down, velocity picks up again
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当火箭向下将多的时候，速度又会增加起来
06:48
toward a maximum velocity and the rocket hits the ground.
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当火箭掉回到地上 速度是最大的
06:51
How's that?
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这是什么呢？
06:52
Journalist: What about that, Admiral?
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将军，你有什么想法
06:55
CB: Looks very good to me.
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看上去真的很不错
06:57
JF: And before leaving, we would like to show you another kind of
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所以在离开之前 我们想向你们展示另一种
07:00
mathematical problem that some of the boys have worked out
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小伙子们解决的数学问题
07:03
in their spare time, in a less serious vein, for a Sunday afternoon. (Music)
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在某个空闲的时间 一个较为轻松的周日下午
07:14
Journalist: Thank you very much indeed, Mr. Forrester and the MIT lab.
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实在太感谢你们。Mr.Forrester 和 the MIT实验室
07:19
PH: You know, so much was worked out: the first real-time interaction,
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你看，成就这么多。第一时间反应
07:23
the video display, pointing a gun. It lead to the microcomputer,
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这个视频展示， 指着一根枪。它只是着一个台微型电脑
07:28
but unfortunately, it was too pricey for the Navy,
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不过很不幸 它对于海军来说实在太昂贵了
07:32
and all of this would have been lost
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所有的这些都可能被失去
07:34
if it weren't for a happy coincidence.
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如果他们不是为了一个和谐的事情一起
07:36
Enter the atomic bomb.
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原子弹踏上了时代的舞台
07:39
We're threatened by the greatest weapon ever,
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现在我们已经被这个威力无限的武器威胁着
07:41
and knowing a good thing when it sees it,
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但当初出现的时候 我们知道这是一件好的事物
07:43
the Air Force decides it needs the biggest computer ever to protect us.
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空军决定了它需要最强大的电脑来保护我们
07:47
They adapt Whirlwind to a massive air defense system,
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它适用于Whirlwind的巨大防空系统
07:50
deploy it all across the frozen north,
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将它部署在天寒地冻的北方
07:52
and spend nearly three times as much on this computer
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在这台电脑上花费了将近三倍的
07:56
as was spent on the Manhattan Project
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花在整个曼哈顿计划上的金钱
07:58
building the A-Bomb in the first place.
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在第一个地点建造A-Bomb
08:00
Talk about a shot in the arm for the computer industry.
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再说说这对于整个电脑工业带来的刺激
08:02
And you can imagine that the Air Force became a pretty good salesman.
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你可以想象空军会变成很好的销售人员
08:06
Here's their marketing video.
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这是他们的营销广告
08:17
(Video) Narrator: In a mass raid, high-speed bombers could be in on us
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视频：一个迅猛、规模庞大的炸弹袭击可能随时后发生在我们身上
08:21
before we could determine their tracks.
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但在我们判定它的轨迹的时候
08:23
And then it would be too late to act.
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再去反应已经太迟了
08:32
We cannot afford to take that chance.
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我们不能冒这样的风险。
08:36
It is to meet this threat that the Air Force has been developing SAGE,
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为了应付这种威胁 空军研发了SAGE
08:41
the Semi-Automatic Ground Environment system,
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一个半自动的地面部署系统
08:44
to strengthen our air defenses.
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来加强我们的空中防御能力
08:47
This new computer, built to become the nerve center of a defense network,
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这个新型的电脑 将会成为我们这个防御系统的中枢神经
08:51
is able to perform all the complex mathematical problems
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能够演算各种复杂的电脑运算
08:55
involved in countering a mass enemy raid.
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包括可以预计敌人大规模的袭击
08:58
It is provided with its own powerhouse
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它需要拥有一个发电室
09:01
containing large diesel-driven generators,
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需要一个大型的柴油发电机
09:04
air-conditioning equipment, and cooling towers
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空气调节设备 和一个冷却塔
09:07
required to cool the thousands of vacuum tubes in the computer.
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来降低电脑中数以千计的电子管的温度
09:12
PH: You know, that one computer was huge.
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你知道，这台电脑是非常巨大的
09:15
There's an interesting marketing lesson from it,
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从这里我们可以看到一堂非常有趣的营销课程
09:17
which is basically, when you market a product,
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基于你怎样推销一个产品
09:19
you can either say, this is going to be wonderful,
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或者你更可以说 这将会变得非常美好
09:21
it will make you feel better and enliven you.
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让你感觉更加好 使你充满活力
09:24
Or there's one other marketing proposition: if you don't use our product, you'll die.
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或者可以从另外一个营销角度，如果你不用我们的产品，你会死掉
09:28
This is a really good example of that.
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这真是一个非常好的例子
09:30
This had the first pointing device. It was distributed,
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这是第一台定点设备。他得到了推广
09:33
so it worked out -- distributed computing and modems --
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并且成功了，分布式计算和调节器
09:35
so all these things could talk to each other.
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所有这些东西都可以使每一个人可以互相谈话
09:37
About 20 percent of all the nation's programmers were wrapped up in this thing,
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白分之二十的国家计划都与这个东西有关
09:41
and it led to an awful lot of what we have today. It also used vacuum tubes.
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这导致了我们现在很多今天拥有的东西。当然还有电子管
09:47
You saw how huge it was, and to give you a sense for this --
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你看到它是多么的庞大，它就是给你这样的感觉
09:50
because we've talked a lot about Moore's law and making things small
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因为我们之前说了太多摩尔定律使得很多东西都变得很微观
09:52
at this conference, so let's talk about making things large.
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这场演讲上，我们谈谈这些东西变大吧
09:56
If we took Whirlwind and put it in a place that you all know,
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如果我们把Whirlwind放在一个地方，你就会知道
09:59
say, Century City, it would fit beautifully.
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说，世纪城，这最适合不过了
10:01
You'd kind of have to take Century City out, but it could fit in there.
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不过你需要将世纪城搬出来 但或者它适合那里
10:05
But like, let's imagine we took the latest Pentium processor,
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或者，我们想象我们拿出最新的奔腾处理器
10:09
the latest Core 2 Extreme, which is a four-core processor
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最新酷睿2至尊版这个四核处理器
10:12
that Intel's working on, it will be our laptop tomorrow.
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这个英特尔致力研发 它很可能会在日后用在我们笔记本电脑上
10:15
To build that, what we'd do with Whirlwind technology is
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如果我们需要用Whirlwind技术达到同样的目的
10:19
we'd have to take up roughly from the 10 to Mulholland,
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我们粗略计算需要占据10条穆赫兰大道
10:23
and from the 405 to La Cienega just with those Whirlwinds.
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和405个拉西埃内加就刚刚好够Whirlwinds使用了
10:27
And then, the 92 nuclear power plants
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然后需要92座核电站
10:30
that it would take to provide the power
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用来提供电力需求
10:33
would fill up the rest of Los Angeles.
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这刚好用完省下的洛杉矶的地方
10:35
That's roughly a third more nuclear power than all of France creates.
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粗略计算这将回3倍法国能制造的核电站发电
10:38
So, the next time they tell you they're on to something, clearly they're not.
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所以 如果下次他们告诉他们正在做这样的事情，可以清晰告诉他们你们不可以
10:41
So -- and we haven't even worked out the cooling needs.
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但，我们还没有装上我们需要的冷却装置
10:44
But it gives you the kind of power that people have, that the audience has,
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但它给与你没一个人拥有的力量，每一位观众能够都有的力量
10:47
and the reasons these transformations are happening.
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这就是为什么这些转变在发生
10:49
All of this stuff starts moving into industry.
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这些所有东西都开始向工业化进展
10:51
DEC kind of reduces all this and makes the first mini-computer.
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DEC它简化了这些并制造了一台迷你电脑
10:55
It shows up at places like MIT, and then a mutation happens.
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这些还出现在像MIT的这些地方，这些改变正在发生
10:59
Spacewar! is built, the first computer game, and all of a sudden,
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星球大战第一款的电脑游戏就是这样诞生 一切发生都非常突然
11:03
interactivity and involvement and passion is worked out.
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交互 参与和带动都一起发生
11:07
Actually, many MIT students stayed up all night long working on this thing,
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事实上，现在很多MIT学生依然坚持日夜奋战去为这个事物工作
11:11
and many of the principles of gaming today were worked out.
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今天很多规则的游戏都在产生
11:13
DEC knew a good thing about wasting time.
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DEC知道一个好的想法肯定要浪费很多时间
11:17
It shipped every one of its computers with that game.
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每一个人在他的电脑上都玩着这样的游戏
11:20
Meanwhile, as all of this is happening, by the mid-'50s,
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同时，到了50年代中期 这所有东西都发生了
11:23
the business model of traditional broadcasting and cinema
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传统的广播和电影院商业模式
11:27
has been busted completely.
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彻底的破产
11:29
A new technology has confounded radio men and movie moguls
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新技术使得广播从业者和电影巨头都非常困惑
11:33
and they're quite certain that television is about to do them in.
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他们肯定电视会帮助他们
11:37
In fact, despair is in the air.
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事实上，广播最为绝望
11:39
And a quote that sounds largely reminiscent
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引用一个例子 那些声音已经快成为回忆了
11:42
from everything I've been reading all week.
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这一切都来自我一直以来读到的东西
11:44
RCA had David Sarnoff, who basically commercialized radio,
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RCA让David Sarnoff一个基本上靠商业赚钱的人
11:48
said this, "I don't say that radio networks must die.
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说这些话，我并不会说广播网必须要破产
11:52
Every effort has been made and will continue to be made
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每一个努力的成果都在实现 并且会持续出现
11:54
to find a new pattern, new selling arrangements
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去创造一个新的模式，一个新销售安排
11:57
and new types of programs that may arrest the declining revenues.
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新型的节目将会赢回正消减中的收入
12:01
It may yet be possible to eke out a poor existence for radio,
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这很可能会弥补现在广播存在的不足
12:04
but I don't know how."
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但是我还不知道怎样做
12:06
And of course, as the computer industry develops interactively,
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当然，电脑工业发展了互动
12:09
producers in the emerging TV business actually hit on the same idea.
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电视产业刚刚出来的时候也是想做同样的理念
12:14
And they fake it.
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不过它们的只是假装
12:29
(Video) Jack Berry: Boys and girls, I think you all know how to get your magic windows
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视频：各位，我想你们都知道怎样去用你们神奇窗户
12:32
up on the set, you just get them out.
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按下这个按钮，你就可以使用它
12:34
First of all, get your Winky Dink kits out.
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首先你们把Winky Dink的工具拿出来
12:36
Put out your Magic Window and your erasing glove, and rub it like this.
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拿出你们的神奇窗户和你们清洁手套和橡皮 这样做
12:39
That's the way we get some of the magic into it, boys and girls.
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这就是我们如何将神奇的东西带进去
12:42
Then take it and put it right up against the screen of your own television set,
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就是这样对你们的电视机屏幕这样做
12:44
and rub it out from the center to the corners, like this.
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就是这样由中间向四角摩擦
12:48
Make sure you keep your magic crayons handy, your Winky Dink crayons
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务必使你的神奇蜡笔拿在手上，你的Winky Dink蜡笔
12:50
and your erasing glove,
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还有你的清洁手套
12:52
because you'll be using them during the show to draw like that.
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因为你需要当节目开始的时候 你需要用他们来画
12:54
You all set? OK, let's get right to the first story about Dusty Man.
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你们都准备好了吗？好的，现在让我们一起带入第一个关于Dusty Man的故事
12:58
Come on into the secret lab.
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快来我们这个秘密实验室
12:59
PH: It was the dawn of interactive TV, and you may have noticed
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教授：这就是交互电视的雏形，你还可以注意到
13:02
they wanted to sell you the Winky Dink kits.
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那么只想向你销售Winky Dink装备
13:04
Those are the Winky Dink crayons. I know what you're saying.
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那些是Winky Dink蜡笔 我知道你现在想说什么
13:07
"Pete, I could use any ordinary open-source crayon,
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“Pete，我可以用任何普通来源的蜡笔
13:10
why do I have to buy theirs?"
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为什么我要买这些？”
13:12
I assure you, that's not the case.
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我肯定你的意见，但这并不是重点
13:15
Turns out they told us directly that these are the only crayons
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他们只想告诉我们这是唯一可以用的蜡笔
13:18
you should ever use with your Winky Dink Magic Window,
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如果你想用你的Winky Dink神奇窗户
13:21
other crayons may discolor or hurt the window.
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其他蜡笔可能使得窗户退色或者受损伤
13:25
This proprietary principle of vendor lock-in
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这些销售商锁定专利
13:29
would go on to be perfected with great success
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将继续被完善以取得更大成功
13:32
as one of the enduring principles of windowing systems everywhere.
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当这个在这个拥有同样规则的视窗系统普及每个角落
13:36
It led to lawsuits --
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这件事引起诉讼
13:38
(Laughter) --
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（笑声）
13:39
federal investigations, and lots of repercussions,
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联邦的调查和很多人的反应
13:42
and that's a scandal we won't discuss today.
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这是一宗丑闻 但我们不会在今天讨论
13:45
But we will discuss this scandal, because this man, Jack Berry, the host of "Winky Dink,"
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我们之所以会谈到这宗丑闻，原因关于一个人，Jack Berry,Winky Dink的主持人
13:50
went on to become the host of "Twenty One," one of the most important quiz shows ever.
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之后他成为“21”节目的主持，这一个当今以来最重要的一个智力竞赛节目
13:55
And it was rigged, and it became unraveled when this man,
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这个节目后来因为作弊而解散
13:58
Charles van Doren, was outed after an unnatural winning streak,
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当时在一个名叫Charles van Doren不正常地连赢后被查出作弊
14:01
ending Berry's career.
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这也结束了Berry's的职业生涯
14:03
And actually, ending the career of a lot of people at CBS.
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事实上，这件事也使得很多CBS的员工事业
14:06
It turns out there was a lot to learn
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这件事有很多经验值得学习
14:09
about how this new medium worked.
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关于一个新型媒体应该怎样运作
14:11
And 50 years ago, if you'd been at a meeting like this
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如果在50年前，你也遇到这样的情况
14:13
and were trying to understand the media,
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你也要尝试去理解媒体
14:16
there was one prophet and only but one you wanted to hear from,
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只有一个先知，也是唯一一个，可能你也听过
14:19
Professor Marshall McLuhan.
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马肖·麦克卢汉教授
14:21
He actually understood something about a theme
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他事实上了解我们
14:23
that we've been discussing all week. It's the role of the audience
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我们一直以来谈论的主体。受众的作用
14:27
in an era of pervasive electronic communications.
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在一个普及的电子传播年代
14:30
Here he is talking from the 1960s.
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以下是他在60年代的谈话
14:32
(Video) Marshall McLuhan: If the audience can become involved in the actual process
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视频：如果受众可以包含在整个
14:37
of making the ad, then it's happy. It's like the old quiz shows.
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广告中，它会很开心。就好像我们很老的智力游戏节目
14:42
They were great TV because it gave the audience a role, something to do.
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他们很好的电视节目 因为他们给与了受众角色 让他们有东西做
14:46
They were horrified when they discovered
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他们很害怕当他们发现
14:48
they'd really been left out all the time because the shows were rigged.
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他们一直以来都被节目欺骗
14:51
Now, then, this was a horrible misunderstanding of TV
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现在 可怕的是
14:54
on the part of the programmers.
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部分节目制作者对于电视的误解
14:56
PH: You know, McLuhan talked about the global village.
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教授：你知道，麦克卢汉谈论过地球村的理论
14:58
If you substitute the word blogosphere, of the Internet today,
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如果你以今天互联网所形成的世界博客圈为例子
15:02
it is very true that his understanding is probably
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你会发现他的理解
15:05
very enlightening now. Let's listen in to him.
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非常发人深省。现在我们来听听
15:07
(Video) MM: The global village is a world
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视频：地球村就是一个世界
15:09
in which you don't necessarily have harmony.
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它不一定是和谐的
15:11
You have extreme concern with everybody else's business
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你对于其他人的事业极其关注
15:15
and much involvement in everybody else's life.
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并在很大程度上牵扯到别人的生活中
15:18
It's a sort of Ann Landers' column writ large.
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就如Anne Landers说的那样显而易见
15:21
And it doesn't necessarily mean harmony and peace and quiet,
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它并不一定表示和谐 和平和宁静
15:26
but it does mean huge involvement in everybody else's affairs.
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但是他一定表示每一个人的事情都彼此相连
15:31
And so the global village is as big as a planet,
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地球村或者好像一个星球那么大
15:34
and as small as a village post office.
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或者就好像一个村庄邮局那么小
15:38
PH: We'll talk a little bit more about him later.
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我们之后我们还会谈到关于他的一些东西
15:39
We're now right into the 1960s.
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我们现在刚好可以回到60年代
15:42
It's the era of big business and data centers for computing.
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这是一个用计算机作为大的商业发展和数据中心的年代
15:45
But all that was about to change.
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但是这一切都将改变
15:47
You know, the expression of technology
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你知道 这是技术诠释
15:49
reflects the people and the time of the culture it was built in.
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反映了人们和当时所形成的文化
15:52
And when I say that code expresses our hopes and aspirations,
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当我说代码符号表达了我们的希望和抱负的时候
15:55
it's not just a joke about messianism, it's actually what we do.
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这不是一个对于救世主概念的嘲笑，这的确是我们现在做的东西
15:59
But for this part of the story, I'd actually like to throw it
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但对于这部分的故事 我想还是把它交给
16:01
to America's leading technology correspondent, John Markoff.
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还是交给美国顶尖的技术通讯记者 John Markoff
16:05
(Video) John Markoff: Do you want to know what the counterculture
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视频：你想知道反主流文化
16:07
in drugs, sex, rock 'n' roll and the anti-war movement
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在毒品 性 摇滚和反战运动
16:09
had to do with computing? Everything.
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对于计算机的发展有什么影响吗？一切
16:11
It all happened within five miles of where I'm standing,
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在我站的地方5米范围内都在发生
16:14
at Stanford University, between 1960 and 1975.
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在斯坦福大学， 1960年至1975年之间
16:18
In the midst of revolution in the streets
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在街头的革命运动
16:20
and rock and roll concerts in the parks,
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公园里举行的摇滚音乐会
16:23
a group of researchers led by people like John McCarthy,
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一群由John McCarthy带领的研究队伍
16:26
a computer scientist at the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Lab,
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一个在斯坦福人工智能实验室里的计算机科学家
16:29
and Doug Engelbart, a computer scientist at SRI, changed the world.
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和名叫Doug Engelbart在SRI的计算机科学家 改变着世界
16:33
Engelbart came out of a pretty dry engineering culture,
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Engelbar 来自一个非常枯燥的工程师文化
16:37
but while he was beginning to do his work,
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但当他开始工作的时候
16:40
all of this stuff was bubbling on the mid-peninsula.
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所有这些东西都在中半岛沸腾
16:43
There was LSD leaking out of Kesey's Veterans' Hospital experiments
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有一块大屏幕泄露了Keasey在老军人医院的实验
16:49
and other areas around the campus,
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还有在校园其他地方的
16:52
and there was music literally in the streets.
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还有确实在街头演奏的音乐
16:54
The Grateful Dead was playing in the pizza parlors.
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感恩而死乐队在一家比萨店里演奏
16:56
People were leaving to go back to the land.
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人们纷纷离开回到本地去
16:58
There was the Vietnam War. There was black liberation.
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有越南的战争 有黑人的解放运动
17:01
There was women's liberation.
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还有妇女的解放运动
17:03
This was a remarkable place, at a remarkable time.
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这是一个值得纪念的地方在一个值得纪念的时间
17:06
And into that ferment came the microprocessor.
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微处理器在动乱的时候来了
17:09
I think it was that interaction that led to personal computing.
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我想他的互动功能导致了个人电脑的出现
17:12
They saw these tools that were controlled by the establishment
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他们看到这些工具由旧社会所控制
17:16
as ones that could actually be liberated and put to use
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所以一些东西能够解放出来
17:19
by these communities that they were trying to build.
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被一些尝试建立的社团所使用
17:21
And most importantly, they had this ethos of sharing information.
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最重要的是 他们有分享信息的社会思潮
17:26
I think these ideas are difficult to understand,
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我想这些概念都很难去理解
17:28
because when you're trapped in one paradigm,
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因为当你困在一些旧模式中
17:31
the next paradigm is always like a science fiction universe -- it makes no sense.
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新的模式总是像科幻虚拟出来的宇宙 没有意思
17:36
The stories were so compelling that I decided to write a book about them.
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这些故事都在迫使我去决定写一本书去记载它
17:40
The title of the book is, "What the Dormouse Said:
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这本书的题目是：“the Dormouse说：
17:42
How the '60s Counterculture Shaped the Personal Computer Industry."
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60年代的反主流文化如何导致了个人电脑产业的出现”
17:46
The title was taken from the lyrics
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这个题目市来自歌词
17:47
to a Jefferson Airplane song. The lyrics go,
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Jefferson Airplane的歌 歌词这样说
17:50
"Remember what the dormouse said.
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“还记得the dormouse 说，
17:52
Feed your head, feed your head, feed your head." (Music)
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喂你的头脑 喂你的头脑 喂你的头脑”
18:42
PH: By this time, computing had kind of leapt into media territory,
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教授：现在计算机已经跳入了媒体的范围
18:45
and in short order much of what we're doing today was imagined
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并且迅速发展到我们今天所做的
18:48
in Cambridge and Silicon Valley.
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这些在剑桥和硅谷都可以想象
18:49
Here's the Architecture Machine Group,
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这是Architecture Machine Group，
18:51
the predecessor of the Media Lab, in 1981.
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在1981年媒体实验室的前身
18:54
Meanwhile, in California, we were trying to commercialize a lot of this stuff.
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同时，在加州，我们尝试将很多东西商业化
18:58
HyperCard was the first program
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HyperCard是第一个项目
19:00
to introduce the public to hyperlinks,
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向公众介绍超链接
19:02
where you could randomly hook to any kind of picture,
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在那里你可以随意的调出任何类型的照片
19:05
or piece of text, or data across a file system,
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或者文本和资料 从文件系统中
19:08
and we had no way of explaining it.
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我们没办法解释它
19:10
There was no metaphor. Was it a database?
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也没有什么比喻 这是一个数据库吗？
19:12
A prototyping tool? A scripted language?
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一个样本研究工具 还是一种计算机语言？
19:15
Heck, it was everything. So we ended up writing a marketing brochure.
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见鬼，它是一切东西 结果我们需要些一个营销的小册子
19:18
We asked a question about how the mind works,
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我们问了关于这个想法怎样运作的问题
19:21
and we let our customers play the role of so many blind men filling out the elephant.
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我们让我们的客户扮演了盲人摸象的角色
19:25
A few years later, we then hit on the idea
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几年之后， 我们终于想到一个主意
19:30
of explaining to people the secret of, how do you get the content you want,
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向人们解释秘密所在 你可以得到任何你想要的内容
19:34
the way you want it and the easy way?
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你想得到的途径和最容易的方法？
19:37
Here's the Apple marketing video.
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这是苹果营销的视频
19:39
(Video) James Burke: You'll be pleased to know, I'm sure, that there are several ways
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视频：你会很乐意去知道 我肯定 有几种途径
19:42
to create a HyperCard interactive video.
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可以创造一个HyperCard互动视频
19:45
The most involved method is to go ahead
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最多人使用的方法是直接使用
19:47
and produce your own videodisc
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去做你自己的视频光盘
19:49
as well as build your own HyperCard stacks.
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和建造你自己的HyperCard书库
19:52
By far the simplest method is to buy a pre-made videodisc
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目前最简单的方法是买一张预先做好的视频光盘
19:55
and HyperCard stacks from a commercial supplier.
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和HyperCard书库 从供应商那里
19:58
The method we illustrate in this video
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我们在视频中所描述的方法
20:00
uses a pre-made videodisc but creates custom HyperCard stacks.
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使用预先做好的视频光盘 但创建了定制的HyperCard书库
20:04
This method allows you to use existing videodisc materials
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这种方法允许1你使用现存的视频光盘素材
20:07
in ways which suit your specific needs and interests.
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这种方法可以满足你特别的需要和兴趣
20:10
PH: I hope you realize how subversive that is.
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我希望你们意识到它的破坏性所在
20:12
That's like a Dick Cheney speech.
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就像那个Dick Cheney的演讲
20:14
You think he's a nice balding guy, but he's just declared war
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你觉得他是个挺可爱的秃顶男 但是他刚刚宣布一场战争
20:17
on the content business. Find the commercial stuff,
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一个内容商业战争 找到适合有商业价值的东西
20:21
mash it up, tell the story your way.
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让它更加吸引 从你的角度讲故事
20:23
Now, as long as we confine this to the education market,
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现在 只要我们限制这种方法用语教育产业市场
20:25
and a personal matter between the computer and the file system,
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关于电脑和文件系统之间的个人问题
20:28
that's fine, but as you can see, it was about to leap out and upset Jack Valenti
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这就好，但当你看到，它很吸引和使得Jack Valenti
20:32
and a lot of other people.
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和其他人心烦
20:34
By the way, speaking of the filing system, it never occurred to us
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随便说说，说起这个文件管理系统 从来没有在我们身边发生
20:37
that these hyperlinks could go beyond the local area network.
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用超链接可以在当地的局域网
20:40
A few years later, Tim Berners-Lee worked that out.
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几年过后 Tim Berners-Lee成功研制出来
20:43
It became a killer app of links, and today, of course,
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它变成一个杀手级软件的链接 当然在今天也是
20:45
we call that the World Wide Web.
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我们叫做万维网
20:48
Now, not only was I instrumental in helping Apple miss the Internet,
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现在 不仅我借助这个帮助苹果发展因特网
20:52
but a couple of years later, I helped Bill Gates do the same thing.
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几年之后 我也帮助比尔·盖茨做同样的事情
20:55
The year is 1993
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这一年是1933
20:59
and he was working on a book and I was working on a video
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他做一本书何我做一个视频
21:03
to help him kind of explain where we were all heading and how to popularize all this.
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帮助他解释我们现在努力的地方和如何让它流行起来
21:08
We were plenty aware that we were messing with media,
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我们很注意到我们正搞乱媒体
21:11
and on the surface, it looks like we predicted a lot of the right things,
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在表面却好像我们正预示着很多好的东西放生
21:14
but we also missed an awful lot. Let's take a look.
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但是我们也措施很多很棒的东西 现在我们来看看
21:27
(Video) Narrator: The pyramids, the Colosseum, the New York subway system
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视频：金字塔 古罗马剧场 纽约地铁系统
21:33
and TV dinners, ancient and modern wonders of the man-made world all.
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和冷冻饭餐 从古至今的所有人造奇迹世界
21:41
Yet each pales to insignificance with the completion
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每一个都显得苍白和没有意义
21:44
of that magnificent accomplishment of twenty-first-century technology,
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完成的时候都成为这些21世纪华丽的技术
21:48
the Digital Superhighway.
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信息高速公路
21:51
Once it was only a dream of technoids and a few long-forgotten politicians.
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从前只是一些计算机迷和一些已经被遗忘的政客的梦想
21:57
The Digital Highway arrived in America's living rooms late in the twentieth century.
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信息高速公路在20世纪后期来到美国人的起居室中
22:04
Let us recall the pioneers who made this technical marvel possible.
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让我们回忆那些使得这项奇迹技术成为可能的先锋
22:09
The Digital Highway would follow the rutted trail
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信息高速公路是沿着前人的路发展的
22:12
first blazed by Alexander Graham Bell.
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第一个提出的是Alexander Graham Bell
22:25
Though some were incredulous ... Man 1: The phone company!
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虽然一些并不相信——电话公司
22:28
Narrator: Stirred by the prospects of mass communication
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被那些希望在大众传播中
22:31
and making big bucks on advertising,
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从广告中赚大钱的渴望搞乱
22:34
David Sarnoff commercializes radio.
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David Sarnoff使广播商业化
22:37
Man 2: Never had scientists been put under such pressure and demand.
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没有科学家让给自己那么多要求和承受那么多压力
22:41
Narrator: The medium introduced America to new products.
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媒介向美国介绍这新产品
22:44
Voice 1: Say, mom, Windows for Radio means more enjoyment
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说，妈妈，Windows让广播更令人享受
22:48
and greater ease of use for the whole family.
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使得整个家庭更容易使用
22:50
Be sure to enjoy Windows for Radio at home and at work.
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当然在家里和工作都可以用Windows听广播
22:55
Narrator: In 1939, the Radio Corporation of America introduced television.
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在1939年，美国广播公司引进了电视
23:02
Man 2: Never had scientists been put under such pressure and demand.
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没有科学家让给自己那么多要求和承受那么多压力
23:05
Narrator: Eventually, the race to the future took on added momentum
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最终这场竞赛却在未来又树立起一座纪念碑
23:08
with the breakup of the telephone company.
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打开了电话公司的缺口
23:11
And further stimulus came
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更深远的刺激继续来到
23:13
with the deregulation of the cable television industry,
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违反规管的有线电视
23:17
and the re-regulation of the cable television industry.
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和再受政府规管的有线电视
23:21
Ted Turner: We did the work to build this, this cable industry,
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我们确实努力去建造这个 有线产业
23:23
now the broadcasters want some of our money. I mean, it's ridiculous.
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现在广播公司想分我们的钱，我觉得这是荒谬的
23:28
Narrator: Computers, once the unwieldy tools of accountants and other geeks,
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电脑 从前是一个笨重的工具
23:33
escaped the backrooms to enter the media fracas.
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其他的逃离了后房逃出来的怪人都进入到媒体的骚乱中
23:37
The world and all its culture reduced to bits,
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世界和文化差异月来越小
23:40
the lingua franca of all media.
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所有媒体形成了共同语言
23:44
And the forces of convergence exploded.
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融合的压力爆发
23:48
Finally, four great industrial sectors combined.
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最后，四个大的工业部门结合
23:52
Telecommunications, entertainment, computing and everything else.
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电信业 娱乐业 电脑和其他所有
23:58
Man 3: We'll see channels for the gourmet
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我们看到寻找美食的渠道
24:01
and we'll see channels for the pet lover.
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我们看到很多渠道可以找到宠物爱好者
24:03
Voice 2: Next on the gourmet pet channel,
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接下来在美食宠物频道
24:05
decorating birthday cakes for your schnauzer.
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为你的德国刚毛狼犬做一个生日蛋糕
24:07
Narrator: All of industry was in play, as investors flocked to place their bets.
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这个行业是为了给那些主人的宠物提供一个地方
24:12
At stake: the battle for you, the consumer,
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下赌注 这是为你消费者而设的战争
24:16
and the right to spend billions to send a lot of information into the parlors of America. (Music)
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和你拥有花费数十亿来发送很多信息到美国的店铺的权利
25:15
PH: We missed a lot. You know, you missed, we missed the Internet,
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我们漏掉了很多。你知道，我们错过了因特网
25:18
the long tail, the role of the audience, open systems, social networks.
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长尾 受众的角色 开放的系统 社区网络
25:23
It just goes to show how tough it is to come up with the right uses of media.
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这只是看来很难想出如何正确应用在媒体上
25:26
Thomas Edison had the same problem.
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Thomas Edison 有同样的问题
25:28
He wrote a list of what the phonograph might be good for when he invented it,
436
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当他发明留声机的时候 他写了一系列关于留声机的用处
25:32
and kind of only one of his ideas
437
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2000
但那么多点子中只有一个
25:34
turned out to have been the right early idea.
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后来被事实证实。
25:36
Well, you know where we're going on from here.
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好的 你知道我们从哪里开始
25:39
We come into the era of the dotcom, the World Wide Web,
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我们来到dot com的年代 万维网
25:43
and I don't need to tell you about that
441
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我不需要告诉你关于这个
25:44
because we all went through that bubble together.
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因为我们都很热闹地参与其中
25:46
But when we emerge from this and what we call Web 2.0,
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但是这种关系展露出来 我们说这是Web 2.0
25:49
things actually are quite different.
444
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所有事情 实际上变得很不一样了
25:51
And I think it's the reason that TV's so challenged.
445
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我想这是这样原因 电视被受挑战
25:53
If Internet one was about pages, now it's about people.
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因特网1是关于页面 现在是关于人
25:57
It's a customer, it's an audience, it's a person who's participating.
447
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它是客户 它是受众 它是一个人参与其中
26:02
It's the formidable thing that is changing entertainment now.
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最令人敬畏的是他正在改变娱乐产业
26:06
(Video) MM: Because it gave the audience a role, something to do.
449
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视频：因为它给了观众一个角色，一些事情做。
26:09
PH: In my own company, Technorati,
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在我的公司，Technorati
26:11
we see something like 67,000 blog posts an hour come in.
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我们看到 有一些东西像67000博客在一个小时内更新
26:16
That's about 2,700 fresh, connective links
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这有2700个新鲜的链接
26:20
across about 112 million blogs that are out there.
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在大约1亿1千2百万博客在那里
26:23
And it's no wonder that as we head into the writers' strike, odd things happen.
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毫无疑问当我们陷入到编剧罢工的时候 奇怪的事就发生了
26:26
You know, it reminds me of that old saw in Hollywood,
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你知道 这让我回忆起以前在好莱坞看到的事情
26:28
that a producer is anyone who knows a writer.
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有一个制片人 任何人都知道他是一个比那句
26:31
I now think a network boss is anyone who has a cable modem.
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4000
我现在想任何人有一个有线调节器都可以做网络老板
26:35
But it's not a joke. This is a real headline.
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但是这不是一个玩笑。 它是一个真正的头条
26:37
"Websites attract striking writers:
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3000
“网络聚集了罢工的编剧”
26:40
operators of sites like MyDamnChannel.com
460
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3000
“运营商网站好像 MyDamnChannel.com
26:43
could benefit from labor disputes."
461
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2000
可以从劳资纠纷中获利。”
26:45
Meanwhile, you have the TV bloggers going out on strike,
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同时，你可以有自己的电视博客来对
26:48
in sympathy with the television writers.
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3000
电视的编剧表示赞同
26:51
And then you have TV Guide, a Fox property,
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你有TV Guide，a Fox prperty
26:53
which is about to sponsor the online video awards --
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他们将会赞助在线视频颁奖
26:55
but cancels it out of sympathy with traditional television,
466
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4000
但是却取消了对传统电视的赞助
26:59
not appearing to gloat.
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2000
但不要幸灾乐祸
27:01
To show you how schizophrenic this all is,
468
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3000
来看看你听得有些精神分裂了
27:04
here's the head of MySpace, or Fox Interactive, a News Corp company,
469
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5000
这是Mypace，Fox互动传媒， 新闻集团的领导人
27:09
being asked, well, with the writers' strike,
470
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2000
被问到，好，对于编剧的罢工
27:11
isn't this going to hurt News Corp and help you online?
471
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4000
是不是会伤害新闻集团而使你集中上网？
27:15
(Video) Man: But I, yeah, I think there's an opportunity. As the strike continues,
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视频：但是 我，我想如果罢工持续下去 那么还会有机会
27:18
there's an opportunity for more people to experience
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这会让更多的人去体现
27:20
video on places like MySpace TV.
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放在像MySpace TV上的视频
27:23
PH: Oh, but then he remembers he works for Rupert Murdoch.
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教授：Oh,但他还是记得他是为默多克工作的
27:26
(Video) Man: Yes, well, first, you know, I'm part of News Corporation
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视频：是的，好，首先，你知道，我是新闻集团的成员
27:28
as part of Fox Entertainment Group.
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也是福克斯娱乐集团的成员
27:30
Obviously, we hope that the strike is --
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当然我希望罢工的问题
27:32
that the issues are resolved as quickly as possible.
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能够尽快解决
27:35
PH: One of the great things that's going on here is
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教授：另一项很重要的事正在发生的是
27:37
the globalization of content really is happening.
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内容全球化正在发生
27:40
Here is a clip from a video, from a piece of animation
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这是视频的一个片断，来自一个动画
27:45
that was written by a writer in Hollywood,
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由好莱坞的编剧编写
27:47
animation worked out in Israel, farmed out to Croatia and India,
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动画开始在以色列，随后又到了克罗地亚和印度继续完成
27:51
and it's now an international series.
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现在这变成了国际的系列
27:57
(Video) Narrator: The following takes place between the minutes of 2:15 p.m. and 2:18 p.m.,
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视频：这个发生在2：15pm至2：18pm之间
28:01
in the months preceding the presidential primaries.
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发生在总统预算的几个月前
28:05
Voice 1: You'll have to stay here in the safe house
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你需要呆在这个安全房子里
28:07
until we get word the terrorist threat is over.
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知道我们结束全球的恐怖袭击威胁
28:10
Voice 2: You mean we'll have to live here, together?
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你的意思 我们还要一起住在这里？
28:14
Voices 2, 3 and 4: With her?
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跟她？
28:16
Voice 2: Well, there goes the neighborhood.
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恩，这就是我们的社区了。
28:18
PH: The company that created this, Aniboom, is an interesting example
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公司穿凿了这个，Aniboom是一个很有趣的例子
28:21
of where this is headed. Traditional TV animation costs, say,
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这是一个趋向。就传统电视动画成本来说，
28:24
between 80,000 and 10,000 dollars a minute.
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介于每分钟80000和10000美元之间
28:27
They're producing things for between 1,500 and 800 dollars a minute.
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而他们成本就只有每分钟1500至800美元之间
28:31
And they're offering their creators 30 percent of the back end,
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而且他们分给创作者30%的利润
28:34
in a much more entrepreneurial manner. So, it's a different model.
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比企业的做法还有多很多。所以这是一个不同的模式
28:38
What the entertainment business is struggling with,
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什么是娱乐产业最为争取的呢
28:40
the world of brands is figuring out.
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算出来是世界品牌
28:42
For example, Nike now understands that Nike Plus is not just a device in its shoe,
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例如，Nike现在明白Nike Plus 并不是它鞋子的一个设备
28:48
it's a network to hook its customers together.
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它是一个网络吸引他的客户聚集一起
28:50
And the head of marketing at Nike says, "People are coming to our site
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就如Nike市场部领导人说 人们都来我们的网站
28:53
an average of three times a week. We don't have to go to them."
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平均每周三次。我们不需要去接触他们
28:57
Which means television advertising is down 57 percent for Nike.
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这也意味着NIke将减低57%的电视广告
29:02
Or, as Nike's head of marketing says,
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不过，正如NIke市场部领导人说
29:04
"We're not in the business of keeping media companies alive.
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“我们并不是要让那些运行媒体的公司一直经营下去。”
29:07
We're in the business of connecting with consumers."
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我们是做联系客户的工作。“
29:09
And media companies realize the audience is important also.
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媒体公司也意识到它的受众是重要的
29:12
Here's a man announcing the new Market Watch from Dow Jones,
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这是一个人在道琼斯股票宣布一个崭新的市场趋势
29:16
powered 100 percent by the user experience on the home page --
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它的动力完全由用户在主页分享的经验提供
29:19
user-generated content married up with traditional content.
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用户生产的内容和传统的内容结合
29:22
It turns out you have a bigger audience and more interest if you hook up with them.
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如果你能吸引到他们 你可以有更为庞大的用户和利润
29:25
Or, as Geoffrey Moore once told me,
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或者，正如Geoffrey Moore从前跟我说过，
29:28
it's intellectual curiosity that's the trade that brands need
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引起理智的好奇心是创造品牌的需求
29:32
in the age of the blogosphere.
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在博客圈子的年代
29:33
And I think this is beginning to happen in the entertainment business.
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我想这也同时在娱乐产业发生
29:36
One of my heroes is songwriter, Ally Willis,
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我心中其中一位英雄人物是歌曲创作者 Ally Willis
29:38
who just wrote "The Color Purple" and has been an R and --
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她刚刚写了一首叫“the color purple"的歌曲
29:42
rhythm and blues writer, and this is what she said
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她曾经是R&B的作曲者，这也是她说
29:45
about where songwriting's going.
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关于作曲应往哪里去
29:46
Ally Willis: Where millions of collaborators wanted the song,
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Ally Willis：我们数百万个同好者都想要歌曲
29:50
because to look at them strictly as spam
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因为我们需要严格看他们
29:53
is missing what this medium is about.
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就像电子邮件迷失了媒介究竟是用来做什么的
29:57
PH: So, to wrap up, I'd love to throw it back to Marshall McLuhan,
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这，怎样解决，我想还是把这个问题交会给马克卢汉
30:01
who, 40 years ago, was dealing with audiences
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在40年前 他在研究受众的问题时
30:04
that were going through just as much change,
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正面临很多的改变
30:06
and I think that, today, traditional Hollywood and the writers
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我想今天在传统的好莱坞 编剧
30:09
are framing this perhaps in the way that it was being framed before.
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尝试创作新的东西或者就好像那么以前一直创作一样
30:12
But I don't need to tell you this, let's throw it back to him.
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但我不需要告诉你这个，还是把问题交给他吧
30:16
(Video) Narrator: We are in the middle of a tremendous clash between the old and the new.
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视频：我们正处于新和旧的东西冲击中
30:23
MM: The medium does things to people
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媒介就是会为人们做的东西
30:26
and they are always completely unaware of this.
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而且他们还会常常没有意识到这点
30:29
They don't really notice the new medium that is wrapping them up.
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他们真的没有察觉新的媒体正包围着他们
30:34
They think of the old medium,
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他们总想这旧媒体
30:36
because the old medium is always the content of the new medium,
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因为旧媒体总是新媒体的内容
30:41
as movies tend to be the content of TV,
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因为电影就好像是电视的内容
30:44
and as books used to be the content,
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就好像书被用作内容一样
30:46
novels used to be the content of movies.
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小说经常被用作电影的题材
30:48
And so every time a new medium arrives,
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所以每次一种新的媒介来临
30:50
the old medium is the content, and it is highly observable,
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旧媒体是内容，它有很高的观察度
30:54
highly noticeable, but the real, real roughing up and massaging
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很受大家注意，但是它却被新媒体大量篡改和胡乱对待
30:58
is done by the new medium, and it is ignored.
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它被忽视了
31:00
PH: I think it's a great time of enthrallment.
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教授：我想这是一段很让人沉迷的时光
31:02
There's been more raw DNA of communications and media
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还有更多一些传播和媒体的基因问题
31:05
thrown out there. Content is moving from shows to particles
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放在那里。内容从节目的形式走向了零散的东西
31:09
that are batted back and forth, and part of social communications,
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他们从前到后都被反复斟酌，变成社交传播的一部分
31:13
and I think this is going to be a time of great renaissance and opportunity.
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我想这将会是一个很好的复兴的契机
31:18
And whereas television may have gotten beat up,
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电视或者会受到重重的打击
31:21
what's getting built is a really exciting new form of communication,
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它将建立一种真正的令人兴奋的新传播形式
31:24
and we kind of have the merger of the two industries
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我们可以合并两个产业
31:28
and a new way of thinking to look at it.
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这是一个新的角度看待这个问题
31:30
Thanks very much.
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谢谢
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Peter Hirshberg - Entrepreneur, marketerA Silicon Valley executive, entrepreneur and marketing specialist, Peter Hirshberg might just be the definitive voice on how new technology affects business and culture.
Why you should listen
The Internet would change everything: it's a truism now, but for some, this took years to sink in. Not for Peter Hirshberg. A marketing specialist at the epicenter of emerging technology, he has spent a quarter of a century charting the reverberations of all things high tech in culture and in business. (It's big business, too.)
Hirshberg first helped bring Apple into the online services arena., then acted as strategic adviser to Microsoft, AOL and NBC. Along the way, he was CEO of Gloss.com and Elemental Software. He's built a deep understanding of the fundamentals of content production and consumption -- and how they've changed, both online and off.
Hirshberg is a trustee of the Computer History Museum and a Henry Crown Fellow of the Aspen Institute. He serves on the advisory board of Technorati and keeps up a lively blog on disruptive culture.
Peter Hirshberg | Speaker | TED.com