EG 2007
Peter Hirshberg: The web is more than "better TV"
彼得·赫什伯格解析電視與網路
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通過深入回顧新興媒體和科技的發展歷史，彼得·赫什伯格（Peter Hirshberg）分享了來自矽谷的一些極其重要的經驗和教訓，並解釋了為什麼網路不僅僅是“更好的電視”。
Peter Hirshberg - Entrepreneur, marketer
A Silicon Valley executive, entrepreneur and marketing specialist, Peter Hirshberg might just be the definitive voice on how new technology affects business and culture. Full bio
A Silicon Valley executive, entrepreneur and marketing specialist, Peter Hirshberg might just be the definitive voice on how new technology affects business and culture. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
Well, good morning.
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早安
00:18
You know, the computer and television both recently turned 60,
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你們知道，電腦和電視最近雙雙步入60歲，
00:22
and today I'd like to talk about their relationship.
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而今天我想跟大家談一下他們之間的關係。
00:26
Despite their middle age, if you've been following the themes
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撇開它們正面臨中年（危機），如果你一直都在關注
00:28
of this conference or the entertainment industry,
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本次大會或者娛樂產業
00:31
it's pretty clear that one has been picking on the other.
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你顯然很清楚，它們一直以來都跟彼此過不去。
00:34
So it's about time that we talked about how the computer ambushed television,
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現在該來談一下究竟電腦是如何襲擊電視的。
00:39
or why the invention of the atomic bomb
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或者，為什麼原子彈的發明
00:42
unleashed forces that lead to the writers' strike.
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居然助長了娛樂業編劇的罷工
00:45
And it's not just what these are doing to each other,
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這不僅是他們互相之間對對方做了些什麼，
00:48
but it's what the audience thinks that really frames this matter.
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而是觀眾們在想要什麼，才是真正的徵結
00:52
To get a sense of this,
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為了理解這一點，
00:53
and it's been a theme we've talked about all week,
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這個星期以來我們一直在談論這個話題，
00:55
I recently talked to a bunch of tweeners.
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最近，我跟一幫少年朋友們聊了一下。
00:57
I wrote on cards: "television," "radio," "MySpace," "Internet," "PC."
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我把要討論的話題放在了卡片、電視、電臺、MySpace和網路電腦上。
01:02
And I said, just arrange these, from what's important to you
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接著我說，從你認為對你最重要的東西開始排序
01:04
and what's not, and then tell me why.
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到最不重要的，然後告訴我為什麼。
01:06
Let's listen to what happens when they get to the portion
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現在讓我們聽一下，當進入到
01:09
of the discussion on television.
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有關電視的討論環節時，他們都說了些什麼。
01:11
(Video) Girl 1: Well, I think it's important but, like, not necessary
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影片：呃，我覺得它（電視）挺重要，但不是必需的
01:18
because you can do a lot of other stuff with your free time than watch programs.
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因為你可以在閑暇時做很多其它的事情，而不只是觀看電視節目 。
01:24
Peter Hirshberg: Which is more fun, Internet or TV?
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哪一個比較有趣呢？網路還是電視？
01:26
Girls: Internet.
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網路
01:28
Girl 2: I think we -- the reasons, one of the reasons we put computer before TV
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我覺得，原因是，其中一個原因是我們把電腦放在電視前面
01:31
is because nowadays, like, we have TV shows on the computer.
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因為現在，我們可以在電腦上看電視節目。
01:35
(Girl 3: Oh, yeah.)
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哦，是的。
01:36
Girl 2: And then you can download onto your iPod.
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而且你可以把它下載到你的iPod裏。
01:37
PH: Would you like to be the president of a TV network?
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你願不願擔任電視網的總裁？
01:41
Girl 4: I wouldn't like it.
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我不願意。
01:43
Girl 2: That would be so stressful.
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壓力太大了
01:45
Girl 5: No.
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不願意。
01:46
PH: How come?
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為什麼？
01:47
Girl 5: Because they're going to lose all their money eventually.
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因為最終他們所有的錢都會付之東流。
01:50
Girl 3: Like the stock market, it goes up and down and stuff.
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就像股票市場一樣，起伏不定的。
01:53
I think right now the computers will be at the top
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我覺得現在，電腦淩駕於一切之上，
01:55
and everything will be kind of going down and stuff.
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其它東西都在走下坡
01:58
PH: There's been an uneasy relationship between the TV business
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彼得·赫什伯格：有一種緊繃的關係在電視工業
02:04
and the tech business, really ever since they both turned about 30.
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和科技工業之間蔓延。這其實從它們一步入30歲的時候就開始了。
02:07
We go through periods of enthrallment,
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我們經歷過沉淪的階段，
02:11
followed by reactions in boardrooms, in the finance community
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接踵而來的是金融界各董事會上的一系列反應。
02:14
best characterized as, what's the finance term? Ick pooey.
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最恰當的形容是，金融學的名詞叫什麼來著？啊呸~。
02:19
Let me give you an example of this. The year is 1976,
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我舉個例子，早在1976年，
02:21
and Warner buys Atari because video games are on the rise.
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華納收購了雅達利，因為電玩遊戲行業正剛剛抬頭
02:24
The next year they march forward and they introduce Qube,
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第二年，他們更進一步推出了Qube (方塊遊戲），
02:27
the first interactive cable TV system,
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第一個互動式有線電視系統，
02:30
and the New York Times heralds this
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紐約時報將此預言為
02:32
as telecommunications moving to the home,
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家用遠程通訊時代的開啟
02:34
convergence, great things are happening.
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媒體融合，好事來臨。
02:36
Everybody in the East Coast gets in the pictures --
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東海岸的所有人都被納入發展宏圖，
02:38
Citicorp, Penney, RCA -- all getting into this big vision.
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花旗集團、潘尼、美國無線電公司都高瞻遠矚。
02:41
By the way, this is about when I enter the picture.
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順便說一下，這會兒也正是我出場的時候。
02:43
I'm going to do a summer internship at Time Warner.
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我既將成為時代華納的暑期實習生。
02:45
That summer I'm all -- I'm at Warner that summer --
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那個暑假，整個暑假我在華納
02:47
I'm all excited to work on convergence, and then the bottom falls out.
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興高采烈地為媒體趨同化工作。接著，一跌到底，全線崩潰。
02:51
Doesn't work out too well for them, they lose money.
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事情進行地並不順利，華納損失慘重。
02:54
And I had a happy brush with convergence
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我跟媒體趨同化有一個美麗而又短暫的接觸
02:57
until, kind of, Warner basically has to liquidate the whole thing.
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直到，差不多，華納基本上必須清算所有的資產。
03:01
That's when I leave graduate school, and I can't work in New York
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那正值我研究所畢業之際，但我無法在紐約
03:05
on kind of entertainment and technology
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的娛樂或科技企業工作
03:07
because I have to be exiled to California, where the remaining jobs are,
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因為我必須被流放到工作機會尚存的加州，
03:11
almost to the sea, to go to work for Apple Computer.
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幾乎到了海邊，任職於蘋果電腦。
03:14
Warner, of course, writes off more than 400 million dollars.
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當然，華納有四億多美元都打了水漂。
03:18
Four hundred million dollars, which was real money back in the '70s.
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四億美元在七十年代是一個相當大的數目。
03:22
But they were onto something and they got better at it.
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但他們當時覺察到一些事情，也比以前有進步。
03:25
By the year 2000, the process was perfected. They merged with AOL,
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2000年的時候，整個程序圓滿完成。華納跟美國在線合併了，
03:29
and in just four years, managed to shed about 200 billion dollars
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而僅僅在四年間，他們就很有本事地虧損了大約兩千億美元
03:34
of market capitalization, showing that they'd actually mastered the art
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的市值。這表明，他們很精通於
03:39
of applying Moore's law of successive miniaturization
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運用摩爾定律的遞減法
03:43
to their balance sheet.
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於他們的資產負債表上。
03:45
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:46
Now, I think that one reason that the media and the entertainment communities,
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現在，我認為娛樂媒體界
03:51
or the media community, is driven so crazy by the tech community
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或者是媒體界被科技界折騰到瘋掉的原因
03:55
is that tech folks talk differently.
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是這些玩科技的傢伙說的話與眾不同。
03:57
You know, for 50 years, we've talked about changing the world,
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你知道，過去50年來，他們一直說要改變世界，
04:00
about total transformation.
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徹底地改頭換面。
04:02
For 50 years, it's been about hopes and fears
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50年來，這裏面夾雜著對於一個更美好世界的希望、恐懼
04:04
and promises of a better world. And I got to thinking,
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以及承諾。於是，我不得不考慮，
04:07
you know, who else talks that way?
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還有誰會這麼大言不慚？
04:10
And the answer is pretty clearly --
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答案一目了然，
04:12
it's people in religion and in politics.
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那就是那些搞宗教和政治的人。
04:15
And so I realized that actually the tech world is best understood,
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而且我還意識到，事實上科技世界可以被理解成，
04:19
not as a business cycle, but as a messianic movement.
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一個救世運動而不只是單純的商業活動
04:21
We promise something great, we evangelize it,
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我們許下重諾，並四處宣揚
04:24
we're going to change the world. It doesn't work out too well,
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我們要改變世界，但結果並不理想，
04:27
and so we actually go back to the well and start all over again,
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所以我們被打回原形，重整旗鼓，
04:31
as the people in New York and L.A. look on in absolute, morbid astonishment.
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而此時紐約和洛杉磯的人們正帶著一種絕對不懷好意的驚訝表情袖手旁觀。
04:36
But it's this irrational view of things that drives us on to the next thing.
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不過，這種非理性看待事物的觀點驅使我們更進一步。
04:39
So, what I'd like to ask is, if the computer is becoming a principal tool
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因此，我想問的是，如果電腦正在成為媒體和娛樂業
04:43
of media and entertainment, how did we get here?
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的一個主要媒介，那是如何演變至此？
04:46
I mean, how did a machine that was built for accounting
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我的意思是說，一個原本被製造出用來算帳和
04:48
and artillery morph into media?
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作戰的機器怎麼會變形為媒體工具呢？
04:51
Of course, the first computer was built just after World War II
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當然，第一台電腦是在二戰之後研製的，
04:53
to solve military problems, but things got really interesting
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用於解決軍事問題。但幾年之後，
04:58
just a couple of years later -- 1949 with Whirlwind,
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也就是1949年，旋風電腦使得很多事情變得非常有趣。
05:03
built at MIT's Lincoln Lab. Jay Forrester was building this for the Navy,
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這台電腦誕生在麻省理工學院的林肯實驗室裏，是傑伊·福雷斯特專為美國海軍研製的。
05:08
but you can't help but see that the creator of this machine had in mind
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但是你不得不看到，這台機器的發明者在當初已經想到
05:11
a machine that might actually be a potential media star.
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將這台機器發展成明日的媒體之星。
05:15
So take a look at what happens when the foremost journalist
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讓我們看一下，當早期最著名的電視記者
05:18
of early television meets one of the foremost computer pioneers,
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和其中一個最著名的電腦先驅相遇之後發生了什麼事，
05:22
and the computer begins to express itself.
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電腦開始了表現自我 。
05:24
(Video) Journalist: It's a Whirlwind electronic computer.
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影片：這是一台旋風電腦
05:27
With considerable trepidation,
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我們懷著極度不安的心情
05:29
we undertake to interview this new machine.
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將開始對這台新機器進行一次訪談。
05:31
Jay Forrester: Hello New York, this is Cambridge.
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你好，紐約，這裏是劍橋。
05:35
And this is the oscilloscope of the Whirlwind electronic computer.
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這是旋風電腦的顯示儀。
05:39
Would you like if I used the machine?
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你是否願意讓我演示一下這台機器？
05:41
Journalist: Yes, of course. But I have an idea, Mr. Forrester.
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當然可以。但我有一個主意，福雷斯特先生。
05:44
Since this computer was made
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既然這台電腦是
05:45
in conjunction with the Office of Naval Research,
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與美國海軍研究院共同研製的，
05:47
why don't we switch down to the Pentagon in Washington
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為什麼我們不把他轉接到華盛頓的五角大樓
05:49
and let the Navy's research chief, Admiral Bolster,
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讓海軍的研究主管，艦隊司令鮑斯特
05:52
give Whirlwind the workout?
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演練一下旋風電腦
05:54
Calvin Bolster: Well, Ed, this problem concerns the Navy's Viking rocket.
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哦，愛德，這個問題關係到海軍的維京火箭。
05:59
This rocket goes up 135 miles into the sky.
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該火箭升空至一百三十五英哩高。
06:03
Now, at the standard rate of fuel consumption,
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現在，在標準燃料消耗的情況下，
06:06
I would like to see the computer trace the flight path of this rocket
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我想讓電腦追蹤該火箭的飛行軌跡，
06:10
and see how it can determine, at any instant,
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以及看它如何做出判斷，在任何情況下
06:14
say at the end of 40 seconds, the amount of fuel remaining,
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比如說，在最後的40秒時，燃料的剩餘量，
06:18
and the velocity at that set instant.
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以及在那一設定瞬間的速度。
06:21
JF: Over on the left-hand side,
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在我的左手邊，
06:23
you will notice fuel consumption decreasing as the rocket takes off.
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你可以注意到燃料消耗在火箭升空時呈現下降。
06:27
And on the right-hand side, there's a scale
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在我的右手邊有一個刻度
06:29
that shows the rocket's velocity.
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顯示火箭的速度。
06:31
The rocket's position is shown by the trajectory
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火箭的位置則顯示在
06:35
that we're now looking at.
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我們現在看到的軌跡上。
06:37
And as it reaches the peak of its trajectory,
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當它接近軌跡的最高點時，
06:41
the velocity, you will notice, has dropped off to a minimum.
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你可以看到，其速度下降到了最低點。
06:43
Then, as the rocket dives down, velocity picks up again
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而當火箭俯沖時，其速度再次上升
06:48
toward a maximum velocity and the rocket hits the ground.
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到了一個最高點，然後火箭落地。
06:51
How's that?
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這怎麼樣？
06:52
Journalist: What about that, Admiral?
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你指什麼？司令先生？
06:55
CB: Looks very good to me.
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看起來很棒。
06:57
JF: And before leaving, we would like to show you another kind of
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在我們結束之間，我想給你看另外一個
07:00
mathematical problem that some of the boys have worked out
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數學問題。這個問題，很多男孩利用他們的業餘時間
07:03
in their spare time, in a less serious vein, for a Sunday afternoon. (Music)
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為星期天的下午搞點輕鬆（電腦可以播放音樂）
07:14
Journalist: Thank you very much indeed, Mr. Forrester and the MIT lab.
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十分感謝福雷斯特先生和麻省理工實驗室。
07:19
PH: You know, so much was worked out: the first real-time interaction,
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彼得：你看，一下子解決了這麼多問題。這是第一次即時互動、
07:23
the video display, pointing a gun. It lead to the microcomputer,
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視頻顯示、還能瞄准好槍。這為微型電腦的發明奠定了基礎。
07:28
but unfortunately, it was too pricey for the Navy,
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但很遺憾，它對於海軍來說太昂貴了，
07:32
and all of this would have been lost
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所有這些本來都會消失
07:34
if it weren't for a happy coincidence.
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如果不是因為一個美妙的巧合的話
07:36
Enter the atomic bomb.
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原子彈登場了。（蘇聯宣佈一個核武器爆炸測試）
07:39
We're threatened by the greatest weapon ever,
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我們從未被如此強大的武器威脅過,
07:41
and knowing a good thing when it sees it,
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我們可以理解為一件好事，
07:43
the Air Force decides it needs the biggest computer ever to protect us.
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當空軍決定需要一個史上最大的電腦來保護我們時。
07:47
They adapt Whirlwind to a massive air defense system,
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他們將旋風電腦運用於一個龐大的空中防禦系統
07:50
deploy it all across the frozen north,
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佈署在整個天寒地凍的北方地區
07:52
and spend nearly three times as much on this computer
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而且，在這台電腦上所花費的支出
07:56
as was spent on the Manhattan Project
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是曼哈頓工程的三倍之多
07:58
building the A-Bomb in the first place.
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那工程旨在第一時間製造出原子彈。
08:00
Talk about a shot in the arm for the computer industry.
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這一舉動尤如為電腦工程業注入了強心針。
08:02
And you can imagine that the Air Force became a pretty good salesman.
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你可以想像空軍變儼如很出色的銷售人員。
08:06
Here's their marketing video.
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這裏是他們的電視宣傳廣告。
08:17
(Video) Narrator: In a mass raid, high-speed bombers could be in on us
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影片：在大規模的襲擊中，高速的炸彈可能會在
08:21
before we could determine their tracks.
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我們判斷出它的軌跡之前就已經跟蹤上了我們。
08:23
And then it would be too late to act.
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讓你猝不及防。
08:32
We cannot afford to take that chance.
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我們絕不能冒這樣的風險。
08:36
It is to meet this threat that the Air Force has been developing SAGE,
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為了應付這一威脅，空軍部門研發了SAGE ﹣
08:41
the Semi-Automatic Ground Environment system,
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半自動化地面防空系統，
08:44
to strengthen our air defenses.
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來加強我們的空中防禦能力。
08:47
This new computer, built to become the nerve center of a defense network,
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這部新型超級電腦，將要成為防禦系統的神經中樞，
08:51
is able to perform all the complex mathematical problems
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它可以承擔跟抵抗敵方大規模襲擊有關的
08:55
involved in countering a mass enemy raid.
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各種複雜的數學演算。
08:58
It is provided with its own powerhouse
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它配備了專用的發電機房
09:01
containing large diesel-driven generators,
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裏面有大型的柴油發電機、
09:04
air-conditioning equipment, and cooling towers
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空調設備和冷卻塔，
09:07
required to cool the thousands of vacuum tubes in the computer.
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用來降低電腦中數以千計的電子管的溫度。
09:12
PH: You know, that one computer was huge.
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彼得：你知道，這台電腦非常龐大。
09:15
There's an interesting marketing lesson from it,
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從中可以看出一個很有趣的行銷課程，
09:17
which is basically, when you market a product,
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基本來說，當你想推廣一種產品時，
09:19
you can either say, this is going to be wonderful,
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你可以這麼說，這將會是一個非常棒的產品，
09:21
it will make you feel better and enliven you.
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它能讓你感覺更好，更有活力，
09:24
Or there's one other marketing proposition: if you don't use our product, you'll die.
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或者你可以從另一個行銷角度出發說，如果你不用我們的產品，你就玩完了。
09:28
This is a really good example of that.
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這是一個絕佳的例證。
09:30
This had the first pointing device. It was distributed,
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這台電腦擁有第一個導向裝置。它是分布式的，
09:33
so it worked out -- distributed computing and modems --
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它分散運算和數據交換的運行。
09:35
so all these things could talk to each other.
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而且所有的這些東西之間可以相互交流。
09:37
About 20 percent of all the nation's programmers were wrapped up in this thing,
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全美有大約百分之二十的程式工程師都參與了該電腦系統的研發。
09:41
and it led to an awful lot of what we have today. It also used vacuum tubes.
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今天我們能擁有這如此輝煌成果完全得益於此。這台電腦還使用了電子管。
09:47
You saw how huge it was, and to give you a sense for this --
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你可以看到它有多巨大。為了讓你更清楚地了解這一點，
09:50
because we've talked a lot about Moore's law and making things small
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因為我們在此次大會上已經談了很多有關摩爾定律方面的知識，如何把東西變小。
09:52
at this conference, so let's talk about making things large.
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所以，現在我們來談談如何讓東西變大。
09:56
If we took Whirlwind and put it in a place that you all know,
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如果我們把旋風電腦放在一個我們都知道的地方，
09:59
say, Century City, it would fit beautifully.
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比如說，世紀商城，那再適合不過了。
10:01
You'd kind of have to take Century City out, but it could fit in there.
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你可能需要先把世紀商城騰空，但它肯定能放進去。
10:05
But like, let's imagine we took the latest Pentium processor,
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想像一下，我們使用最新的奔騰處理器，
10:09
the latest Core 2 Extreme, which is a four-core processor
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就是英特爾正在研發的酷睿2至尊版四核處理器，
10:12
that Intel's working on, it will be our laptop tomorrow.
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它將會是我們明日的手提電腦。
10:15
To build that, what we'd do with Whirlwind technology is
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把這個應用在旋風電腦的技術上，
10:19
we'd have to take up roughly from the 10 to Mulholland,
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我們大概必須佔據從10號高速公路到穆赫蘭大道，
10:23
and from the 405 to La Cienega just with those Whirlwinds.
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以及從405號高速公路到拉辛尼倫吉大道的全部空間來擺放這些旋風電腦。
10:27
And then, the 92 nuclear power plants
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還要九十二座核能發電廠
10:30
that it would take to provide the power
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用來提供電源
10:33
would fill up the rest of Los Angeles.
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正好把洛杉磯剩餘的地區全部填滿。
10:35
That's roughly a third more nuclear power than all of France creates.
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這大概比法國全國核電廠的發電量還多三分之一。
10:38
So, the next time they tell you they're on to something, clearly they're not.
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所以，下次他們告訴你他們正在籌劃什麼事情，他們其實並沒有。
10:41
So -- and we haven't even worked out the cooling needs.
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另外，我們還沒有解決冷卻的問題。
10:44
But it gives you the kind of power that people have, that the audience has,
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但至少讓你見識一下人們和觀眾所受到的影響。
10:47
and the reasons these transformations are happening.
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以及這些翻天覆地的變化正在發生的原因。
10:49
All of this stuff starts moving into industry.
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所有東西都開始邁向工業化。
10:51
DEC kind of reduces all this and makes the first mini-computer.
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迪吉多（DEC）化繁為簡，製造出第一台微型電腦
10:55
It shows up at places like MIT, and then a mutation happens.
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它出現在類似麻省理工學院等地方，之後就發生了變異。
10:59
Spacewar! is built, the first computer game, and all of a sudden,
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第一個電腦遊戲的太空大戰誕生了。突然之間,
11:03
interactivity and involvement and passion is worked out.
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互動、參與和激情同時體現了出來。
11:07
Actually, many MIT students stayed up all night long working on this thing,
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實際上，許多麻省理工的學生夜以繼日地改進這個遊戲，
11:11
and many of the principles of gaming today were worked out.
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而且今天許多的遊戲規則在那會兒就已經制訂出來了。
11:13
DEC knew a good thing about wasting time.
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迪吉多想出一個消磨時間的好方法。
11:17
It shipped every one of its computers with that game.
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他們在每一台售出的電腦中都附帶了這個遊戲。
11:20
Meanwhile, as all of this is happening, by the mid-'50s,
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在這些變化產生的同時，在50年代中期，
11:23
the business model of traditional broadcasting and cinema
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廣播和電影院的傳統商業模式，
11:27
has been busted completely.
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已經徹底地崩潰了。
11:29
A new technology has confounded radio men and movie moguls
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一個嶄新的技術讓廣播業者和電影大亨們不知所措。
11:33
and they're quite certain that television is about to do them in.
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而且，他們非常肯定電視已經快搞垮他們了。
11:37
In fact, despair is in the air.
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實際上，絕望的情緒已經開始蔓延。
11:39
And a quote that sounds largely reminiscent
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我想引用一段讓人非常容易聯想到過去的話，
11:42
from everything I've been reading all week.
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這段話出自過去一個星期我讀到的所有東西，
11:44
RCA had David Sarnoff, who basically commercialized radio,
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將廣播商業化的美國無線電公司的大衛·沙諾夫(美國商業無線電和電視的先驅)說過，
11:48
said this, "I don't say that radio networks must die.
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“我不會說廣播網絡一定會滅亡，
11:52
Every effort has been made and will continue to be made
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曾經付出的每一分努力都將繼續
11:54
to find a new pattern, new selling arrangements
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並致力於尋找新的模式，新的營銷整合
11:57
and new types of programs that may arrest the declining revenues.
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和新型的節目以期能夠挽救收入下跌的營收
12:01
It may yet be possible to eke out a poor existence for radio,
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這有也許能夠挽救廣播業的糟糕現狀，
12:04
but I don't know how."
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但我不知道如何去做。”
12:06
And of course, as the computer industry develops interactively,
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當然，在電腦業發展互動模式之際，
12:09
producers in the emerging TV business actually hit on the same idea.
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新興電視產業的制片人們也產生了同樣的相法。
12:14
And they fake it.
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但他們不過只是照貓畫虎。
12:29
(Video) Jack Berry: Boys and girls, I think you all know how to get your magic windows
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影片：孩子們，我想你們都知道如何把你們的魔術屏幕
12:32
up on the set, you just get them out.
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安裝上去，只需要把它們拿出來。
12:34
First of all, get your Winky Dink kits out.
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首先，把你們的亮閃閃（Winky Dink）工具包拿出來，
12:36
Put out your Magic Window and your erasing glove, and rub it like this.
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再把你的魔術屏幕和手套擦拿出來，就象我這樣來回擦。
12:39
That's the way we get some of the magic into it, boys and girls.
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這就是我們讓它產生魔術效果的方法，孩子們。
12:42
Then take it and put it right up against the screen of your own television set,
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然後再把它拿起來，貼在你的自己的電視螢幕上，
12:44
and rub it out from the center to the corners, like this.
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並且從中間部分向四邊擦出去，就象我這樣。
12:48
Make sure you keep your magic crayons handy, your Winky Dink crayons
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記得把你的魔術蠟筆放在手邊，你的亮閃閃蠟筆
12:50
and your erasing glove,
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和你的手套擦也是，
12:52
because you'll be using them during the show to draw like that.
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因為你將在節目中用它們畫圖畫。
12:54
You all set? OK, let's get right to the first story about Dusty Man.
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準備好了嗎？好，讓我們開始第一個故事—達斯提人。
12:58
Come on into the secret lab.
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跟我到密室裏來吧。
12:59
PH: It was the dawn of interactive TV, and you may have noticed
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彼得：那時是互動電視曙光乍現的時後。你應該已經注意到了，
13:02
they wanted to sell you the Winky Dink kits.
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他們就是想把亮閃閃工具包推銷給你。
13:04
Those are the Winky Dink crayons. I know what you're saying.
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這些就是Winky Dink蠟筆。我知道你在想什麼。
13:07
"Pete, I could use any ordinary open-source crayon,
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“彼得，我可以用任何一般的、市面流通的蠟筆，
13:10
why do I have to buy theirs?"
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我們為什麼一定要買他們的產品？”
13:12
I assure you, that's not the case.
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我可以向你保證，事情絕非如你所想。
13:15
Turns out they told us directly that these are the only crayons
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結果是，他們會直接告訴我們，這是唯一可以
13:18
you should ever use with your Winky Dink Magic Window,
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用在亮閃閃魔術屏幕上的蠟筆。
13:21
other crayons may discolor or hurt the window.
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其它的蠟筆可能會造成褪色或損害到你的屏幕。
13:25
This proprietary principle of vendor lock-in
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這種獨家經銷的銷售祕方
13:29
would go on to be perfected with great success
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將會日臻完美並取得巨大的成功
13:32
as one of the enduring principles of windowing systems everywhere.
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這就是無處不在的視窗操作系統的其中一個永久準則。
13:36
It led to lawsuits --
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當然也導致了官司訴訟。（以上例子影射微軟公司）
13:38
(Laughter) --
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（笑聲）
13:39
federal investigations, and lots of repercussions,
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聯邦調查介入，反響巨大，
13:42
and that's a scandal we won't discuss today.
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這是一樁醜聞，今天我們還是不討論了吧。
13:45
But we will discuss this scandal, because this man, Jack Berry, the host of "Winky Dink,"
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但我們要談一下另一件醜聞，因為這個人，傑克·巴瑞，《亮閃閃》節目的主持人，
13:50
went on to become the host of "Twenty One," one of the most important quiz shows ever.
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後來成為了電視節目《21》的主持人，這是有史以來最重要的競猜節目之一。
13:55
And it was rigged, and it became unraveled when this man,
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該節目由人為操縱造假，當這個男人，
13:58
Charles van Doren, was outed after an unnatural winning streak,
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查爾斯·尤·朵仁非自然性地連贏數次而被出局之後，一切才真相大白，
14:01
ending Berry's career.
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由此也結束了巴瑞的職業生涯。
14:03
And actually, ending the career of a lot of people at CBS.
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事實上，這結束哥倫比業廣播公司很多人的職業生涯。
14:06
It turns out there was a lot to learn
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結果證明，要想了解這個新媒體的運作，
14:09
about how this new medium worked.
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實在是有很多東西需要學習。
14:11
And 50 years ago, if you'd been at a meeting like this
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50年前，如果你在這樣一個會議當中，
14:13
and were trying to understand the media,
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試著去理解媒體，
14:16
there was one prophet and only but one you wanted to hear from,
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會有這麼一個預言家，也是唯一一個你想聽聽他說什麼的人，
14:19
Professor Marshall McLuhan.
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它就是馬歇爾·麥克盧漢教授。
14:21
He actually understood something about a theme
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事實上，他的見解正是過去一個星期以來
14:23
that we've been discussing all week. It's the role of the audience
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我們一直討論的一個主題。那就是觀眾
14:27
in an era of pervasive electronic communications.
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在電子通信技術滲透時代所扮演的角色。
14:30
Here he is talking from the 1960s.
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這是他在1960年代的講話。
14:32
(Video) Marshall McLuhan: If the audience can become involved in the actual process
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影片：如果觀眾能夠真正參與到廣告實際的
14:37
of making the ad, then it's happy. It's like the old quiz shows.
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製作過程中，那就再好不過了。這就好像過去的競猜節目
14:42
They were great TV because it gave the audience a role, something to do.
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他們是很好的電視節目，因為它給觀眾安排了一個角色，一個差事。
14:46
They were horrified when they discovered
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但他們很快就會被震驚，因為他們發現了
14:48
they'd really been left out all the time because the shows were rigged.
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節目被人為操縱，而他們從一開始就被排除在遊戲之外。
14:51
Now, then, this was a horrible misunderstanding of TV
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好啦，這是對電視
14:54
on the part of the programmers.
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某些節目程序一個可怕的誤解。
14:56
PH: You know, McLuhan talked about the global village.
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彼得：你知道，麥克盧漢曾談到過地球村。
14:58
If you substitute the word blogosphere, of the Internet today,
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如果你它替換成當今的流行詞語—網路部落格空間的話，
15:02
it is very true that his understanding is probably
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你就會發現他的理解真的非常
15:05
very enlightening now. Let's listen in to him.
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有啟示作用。讓我們聽聽他是怎麼說的。
15:07
(Video) MM: The global village is a world
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影片：地球村是一個世界，
15:09
in which you don't necessarily have harmony.
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在這裏不必有和諧，
15:11
You have extreme concern with everybody else's business
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你極度關注其它人的個人私事
15:15
and much involvement in everybody else's life.
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並且很深地介入每個人的生活中。
15:18
It's a sort of Ann Landers' column writ large.
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就如同把安·蘭德絲的專欄放大一樣。
15:21
And it doesn't necessarily mean harmony and peace and quiet,
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這不必意味著和諧、和平和安寧，
15:26
but it does mean huge involvement in everybody else's affairs.
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但它卻意味著全方位地介入每一個人的私人事務。
15:31
And so the global village is as big as a planet,
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所以，地球村既如一個星球般龐大，
15:34
and as small as a village post office.
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又如一個鄉村郵電局那樣渺小。
15:38
PH: We'll talk a little bit more about him later.
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彼得：等會兒我們將會更多地談到他。
15:39
We're now right into the 1960s.
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現在，我們開始進入60年代。
15:42
It's the era of big business and data centers for computing.
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這是大工業和計算機數據中心的時代。
15:45
But all that was about to change.
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但這些很快就要被改變。
15:47
You know, the expression of technology
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你知道，科技的表現
15:49
reflects the people and the time of the culture it was built in.
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反映了人類和其文化引領的時代。
15:52
And when I say that code expresses our hopes and aspirations,
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當我說計算機編碼表達了我們的希望和進取時
15:55
it's not just a joke about messianism, it's actually what we do.
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這並非關於彌塞亞主義的笑話，而是我們實實在在做的事情。
15:59
But for this part of the story, I'd actually like to throw it
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關於這部分的故事，我想交給
16:01
to America's leading technology correspondent, John Markoff.
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美國科技新聞工作者的先驅約翰·馬克夫來給大家講述。
16:05
(Video) John Markoff: Do you want to know what the counterculture
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影片：你想知道反主流文化的
16:07
in drugs, sex, rock 'n' roll and the anti-war movement
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毒品、性、搖滾和反戰運動
16:09
had to do with computing? Everything.
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對電腦工業的影響嗎？所有的一切。
16:11
It all happened within five miles of where I'm standing,
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一切都發生在我目前所在的5英哩之內，
16:14
at Stanford University, between 1960 and 1975.
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就在斯坦福大學裏，在1960到1975年之間。
16:18
In the midst of revolution in the streets
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就在街頭革命運動
16:20
and rock and roll concerts in the parks,
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以及公園搖滾音樂會如火如荼地進行時，
16:23
a group of researchers led by people like John McCarthy,
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由諸如斯坦福大學人工智能實驗室的
16:26
a computer scientist at the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Lab,
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電腦科學家約翰·麥卡錫以及斯坦福研究學院的電腦科學家
16:29
and Doug Engelbart, a computer scientist at SRI, changed the world.
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道格·安傑巴特領導的一個研究小組改變了整個世界。
16:33
Engelbart came out of a pretty dry engineering culture,
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安傑巴特是從一個非常枯燥的工程師文化圈裏走出來的。
16:37
but while he was beginning to do his work,
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但當他開始他的研究工作時，
16:40
all of this stuff was bubbling on the mid-peninsula.
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所有的事情都在半島中部（借指舊金山地區）熱火朝天地進行著。
16:43
There was LSD leaking out of Kesey's Veterans' Hospital experiments
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麥角酸二乙基醯胺（一種致幻劑）從卡西退伍軍人醫院的實驗室洩漏到了外界，
16:49
and other areas around the campus,
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還有校園裏的其它地方，
16:52
and there was music literally in the streets.
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那時音樂充斥著街頭。
16:54
The Grateful Dead was playing in the pizza parlors.
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死之華樂團在比薩店裏演唱。
16:56
People were leaving to go back to the land.
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人們紛紛離開好回歸家鄉土地。
16:58
There was the Vietnam War. There was black liberation.
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那時有越戰、黑人解放運動、
17:01
There was women's liberation.
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和婦女解放運動。
17:03
This was a remarkable place, at a remarkable time.
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這是一個出現在不同尋常年代的一個不同尋常的地方。
17:06
And into that ferment came the microprocessor.
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微型處理器就在這個動亂年代誕生了。
17:09
I think it was that interaction that led to personal computing.
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我認為，所有這些運動的相互影響最終導致了個人電腦的產生。
17:12
They saw these tools that were controlled by the establishment
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他們看到這些工具被保守的當權派所把持，
17:16
as ones that could actually be liberated and put to use
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有些東西可以被解放出來
17:19
by these communities that they were trying to build.
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由那些他們正在試圖建設的社區來使用。
17:21
And most importantly, they had this ethos of sharing information.
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更重要的是，他們具有這種信息共享的精神。
17:26
I think these ideas are difficult to understand,
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我認為這些想法是很難去理解的，
17:28
because when you're trapped in one paradigm,
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因為當你被禁錮在某種模式裏時，
17:31
the next paradigm is always like a science fiction universe -- it makes no sense.
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另一種模式總是會象一個科幻小說世界一樣，毫無道理。
17:36
The stories were so compelling that I decided to write a book about them.
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這些故事太引人入勝了，以至於我決定把它們寫成一本書。
17:40
The title of the book is, "What the Dormouse Said:
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書名就叫做：“睡鼠宣言：
17:42
How the '60s Counterculture Shaped the Personal Computer Industry."
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60年代的非主流文化運動如何左右了個人電腦工業的發展。”（臺灣版書名：《PC迷幻紀事》）
17:46
The title was taken from the lyrics
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書名源自於傑斐遜飛機
17:47
to a Jefferson Airplane song. The lyrics go,
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一首歌的歌詞。歌詞是這樣的，
17:50
"Remember what the dormouse said.
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“還記得睡鼠說過的話嗎，
17:52
Feed your head, feed your head, feed your head." (Music)
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喂飽你的腦袋，喂飽你的腦袋，喂飽你的腦袋。”
18:42
PH: By this time, computing had kind of leapt into media territory,
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彼得：到這個時候，計算機工業已經有點邁進媒體領域的意思了。
18:45
and in short order much of what we're doing today was imagined
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而且轉眼之間，今天我們的很多所做所為
18:48
in Cambridge and Silicon Valley.
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當時在劍橋和矽谷就已經想像到了。
18:49
Here's the Architecture Machine Group,
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這裏是結構體系機器小組，
18:51
the predecessor of the Media Lab, in 1981.
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它是媒體實驗室的前身，成立於1981年。
18:54
Meanwhile, in California, we were trying to commercialize a lot of this stuff.
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同時，在加州，我們正在試圖將很多東西商業化。
18:58
HyperCard was the first program
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超卡是當時的第一個
19:00
to introduce the public to hyperlinks,
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將超連結介紹給公眾的程序。
19:02
where you could randomly hook to any kind of picture,
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你可以任意連結到整個文件系統中的任何照片，
19:05
or piece of text, or data across a file system,
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或一段文本及數據，
19:08
and we had no way of explaining it.
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而且我們無法對此做出解釋。
19:10
There was no metaphor. Was it a database?
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也沒有什麼可以用來做比喻。這是數據庫，
19:12
A prototyping tool? A scripted language?
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原型工具，還是指令碼語言嗎？
19:15
Heck, it was everything. So we ended up writing a marketing brochure.
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天哪，什麼都是。最後我們策劃了一個市場宣傳手冊。
19:18
We asked a question about how the mind works,
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我們問了一個問題，即這個想法是如何形成產生的。
19:21
and we let our customers play the role of so many blind men filling out the elephant.
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我們讓我們的客戶來玩盲人摸象的遊戲。
19:25
A few years later, we then hit on the idea
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幾年以後，我們又想出了一個主意
19:30
of explaining to people the secret of, how do you get the content you want,
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來向人們解釋這個秘密，那就是你怎樣才能得到你想要的內容，
19:34
the way you want it and the easy way?
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以你所希望的方式和最容易的方式？
19:37
Here's the Apple marketing video.
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這裏是蘋果公司的市場推廣視頻。
19:39
(Video) James Burke: You'll be pleased to know, I'm sure, that there are several ways
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視頻：你將很樂意了解，我確信，這裏有幾種方法
19:42
to create a HyperCard interactive video.
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來製作一個超卡互動視頻。
19:45
The most involved method is to go ahead
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最複雜的方法是直接
19:47
and produce your own videodisc
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製作你自己的視頻光碟
19:49
as well as build your own HyperCard stacks.
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還有就是建立你自己的超卡卡堆。
19:52
By far the simplest method is to buy a pre-made videodisc
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目前為止最簡單的方法是從供應商手裏買一個事先做好的視頻光碟
19:55
and HyperCard stacks from a commercial supplier.
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和超卡卡堆。
19:58
The method we illustrate in this video
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我們在這個視頻裏展示的方法是
20:00
uses a pre-made videodisc but creates custom HyperCard stacks.
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使用一個事先做好的視頻光碟，但特別定做一個超卡卡堆。
20:04
This method allows you to use existing videodisc materials
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這個方法可以讓你使用現有的視頻光碟材料，
20:07
in ways which suit your specific needs and interests.
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來滿足你的特殊需求和興趣。
20:10
PH: I hope you realize how subversive that is.
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彼得：我希望你能意識到這是多麼地具有顛覆性。
20:12
That's like a Dick Cheney speech.
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它聽起來象迪克·錢尼的講話。
20:14
You think he's a nice balding guy, but he's just declared war
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你覺得他是一個很和藹的禿頭佬，結果他剛剛向
20:17
on the content business. Find the commercial stuff,
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內容服務商宣戰。找出一堆商業化的東西，
20:21
mash it up, tell the story your way.
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混搭組合在一起，然後隨心所欲地演繹。
20:23
Now, as long as we confine this to the education market,
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現在，只要我們把這個界定在教育市場的範圍，
20:25
and a personal matter between the computer and the file system,
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以及界定為電腦和檔案系統之間私人恩怨
20:28
that's fine, but as you can see, it was about to leap out and upset Jack Valenti
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就沒有問題。不過，你可以看到，它即將跳出來把傑克·華倫提
20:32
and a lot of other people.
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和很多人惹火了。
20:34
By the way, speaking of the filing system, it never occurred to us
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順便提一句，說到檔案系統，我們從來沒有想過
20:37
that these hyperlinks could go beyond the local area network.
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這些超連結可以超越區域網路。
20:40
A few years later, Tim Berners-Lee worked that out.
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幾年以後，提姆·柏納李（全球資訊網的發明者）解決了這個問題。
20:43
It became a killer app of links, and today, of course,
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它變成了一個極具殺傷力的連結應用軟件。今天，當然
20:45
we call that the World Wide Web.
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我們稱它為全球資訊網。
20:48
Now, not only was I instrumental in helping Apple miss the Internet,
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現在，不僅我導致蘋果跟網際網路失之交臂，
20:52
but a couple of years later, I helped Bill Gates do the same thing.
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幾年之後，我讓比爾·蓋茨也做了同樣的事。
20:55
The year is 1993
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那是1993年。
20:59
and he was working on a book and I was working on a video
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他當時正在忙著寫書，而我在忙著製作一個視頻
21:03
to help him kind of explain where we were all heading and how to popularize all this.
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幫助他來解釋我們的發展方向以及如何普及這一切。
21:08
We were plenty aware that we were messing with media,
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我們非常清楚我們正跟媒體過不去，
21:11
and on the surface, it looks like we predicted a lot of the right things,
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表面上看來，我們預見到的很多事情是正確的，
21:14
but we also missed an awful lot. Let's take a look.
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但是我們也忽略了很多東西。讓我們一起來看看以下這個片段。
21:27
(Video) Narrator: The pyramids, the Colosseum, the New York subway system
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視頻：金字塔、羅馬競技場、紐約地鐵系統
21:33
and TV dinners, ancient and modern wonders of the man-made world all.
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和冷凍快餐，古代和現代人造奇跡的世界。
21:41
Yet each pales to insignificance with the completion
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雖然每一個都顯得微不足道，
21:44
of that magnificent accomplishment of twenty-first-century technology,
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跟二十一世紀的偉大科技成就—
21:48
the Digital Superhighway.
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數位高速公路比起來。
21:51
Once it was only a dream of technoids and a few long-forgotten politicians.
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它曾經僅僅是計算機狂和幾個早已被遺忘的政治家的一個夢想。
21:57
The Digital Highway arrived in America's living rooms late in the twentieth century.
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數位高速公路於二十世紀末出現在美國人民的客廳裏。
22:04
Let us recall the pioneers who made this technical marvel possible.
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讓我們一起來回憶一下那些使這一科技奇跡成為可能的先輩們。
22:09
The Digital Highway would follow the rutted trail
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數位高速公路是步
22:12
first blazed by Alexander Graham Bell.
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前輩亞歷山大·格拉漢姆·貝爾的後塵。
22:25
Though some were incredulous ... Man 1: The phone company!
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雖然有些人對此表示懷疑。（畫中音：電話公司！）
22:28
Narrator: Stirred by the prospects of mass communication
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被大眾傳播的前景攪得很不安
22:31
and making big bucks on advertising,
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並利用廣告賺了大把錢，
22:34
David Sarnoff commercializes radio.
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大衛·沙諾夫把廣播商業化了。
22:37
Man 2: Never had scientists been put under such pressure and demand.
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科學家從來沒有過面臨這麼大的壓力和需求。
22:41
Narrator: The medium introduced America to new products.
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媒體向美國推廣最新的產品。
22:44
Voice 1: Say, mom, Windows for Radio means more enjoyment
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我說，媽媽們，視窗廣播對全家人來說，意味著更多的愉悅
22:48
and greater ease of use for the whole family.
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和更簡便的使用。
22:50
Be sure to enjoy Windows for Radio at home and at work.
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記得在家和公司都要享受視窗廣播。
22:55
Narrator: In 1939, the Radio Corporation of America introduced television.
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1939年，美國無線電公司推出了電視機。
23:02
Man 2: Never had scientists been put under such pressure and demand.
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科學家從來沒有過面臨這麼大的壓力和需求。
23:05
Narrator: Eventually, the race to the future took on added momentum
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最終這場關於未來的競賽隨著
23:08
with the breakup of the telephone company.
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電話公司的解體得到了新的動力。
23:11
And further stimulus came
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隨著對有線電視工業
23:13
with the deregulation of the cable television industry,
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的管制放鬆
23:17
and the re-regulation of the cable television industry.
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工業的重新管制，更進一步的激勵產生了
23:21
Ted Turner: We did the work to build this, this cable industry,
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這個有線電視工業是由我們建設起來，
23:23
now the broadcasters want some of our money. I mean, it's ridiculous.
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現在，廣播業者想從我們這裏分一杯羹。我認為這很荒謬。
23:28
Narrator: Computers, once the unwieldy tools of accountants and other geeks,
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電腦曾經是會計人員和其它天才怪胎用來
23:33
escaped the backrooms to enter the media fracas.
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逃離小黑屋，在媒體爭辯中插一嘴的笨重工具。
23:37
The world and all its culture reduced to bits,
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世界和它的所有文化都縮小成至位元，
23:40
the lingua franca of all media.
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所有媒體的口舌之爭。
23:44
And the forces of convergence exploded.
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集聚已久的力量終於爆發了。
23:48
Finally, four great industrial sectors combined.
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最終，四大工業版塊合併了。
23:52
Telecommunications, entertainment, computing and everything else.
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通訊業、娛樂業、計算機工業和其它的所有行業。
23:58
Man 3: We'll see channels for the gourmet
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我們將會看到美食頻道
24:01
and we'll see channels for the pet lover.
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我們還將看到寵物頻道。
24:03
Voice 2: Next on the gourmet pet channel,
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下一個將會是美食寵物頻道，
24:05
decorating birthday cakes for your schnauzer.
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為你的雪納瑞裝飾生日蛋糕。
24:07
Narrator: All of industry was in play, as investors flocked to place their bets.
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所有的行業都加入到遊戲當中，當投資者一窩蜂地下賭注的時候。
24:12
At stake: the battle for you, the consumer,
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在危急關頭，這是你，一個消費者的戰爭，
24:16
and the right to spend billions to send a lot of information into the parlors of America. (Music)
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以及揮霍上億美元，將各種信息送至每家每戶的權力。
25:15
PH: We missed a lot. You know, you missed, we missed the Internet,
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彼得：我們忽略了很多。你知道，你忽略了，我們忽略了網際網路、
25:18
the long tail, the role of the audience, open systems, social networks.
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長尾效應、觀眾的角色、開放式系統、社交網路。
25:23
It just goes to show how tough it is to come up with the right uses of media.
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這表明想出一個正確使用媒體的方法有多麼不容易。
25:26
Thomas Edison had the same problem.
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湯瑪斯·愛迪生面臨同樣的問題。
25:28
He wrote a list of what the phonograph might be good for when he invented it,
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當他發明留聲機的時候，他寫了一個長長單子來列舉留聲機的好處。
25:32
and kind of only one of his ideas
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但只有他其中的一個想法
25:34
turned out to have been the right early idea.
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最後證明當初的想法是正確的。
25:36
Well, you know where we're going on from here.
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你知道，我們從此要走向哪裏。
25:39
We come into the era of the dotcom, the World Wide Web,
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我走進了.com (網頁）和全球資訊網路的時代，
25:43
and I don't need to tell you about that
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這無需贅言。
25:44
because we all went through that bubble together.
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因為我們一起經歷了那場泡沫風波。
25:46
But when we emerge from this and what we call Web 2.0,
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但當我們掙脫出來時，我們稱做Web 2.0
25:49
things actually are quite different.
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的東西其實完全不同。
25:51
And I think it's the reason that TV's so challenged.
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我認為，這正是電視面臨巨大挑戰的原因。
25:53
If Internet one was about pages, now it's about people.
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網路一是有關網頁的，現在則是關於人的。
25:57
It's a customer, it's an audience, it's a person who's participating.
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它是客戶、是觀眾，也是參與者。
26:02
It's the formidable thing that is changing entertainment now.
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這是一件正在令娱樂業改頭換面的令人歎為觀止的事情。
26:06
(Video) MM: Because it gave the audience a role, something to do.
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視頻：因為它給了觀眾一個角色，一個差事。
26:09
PH: In my own company, Technorati,
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彼得：在我自已的公司裏，Technorati （部落格搜尋引擎）,
26:11
we see something like 67,000 blog posts an hour come in.
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我們看到每小時有大約六萬七千個部落格的網誌上傳。
26:16
That's about 2,700 fresh, connective links
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這是大概是貫穿網路上1.12億個部落格的
26:20
across about 112 million blogs that are out there.
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兩千七百個全新連結。
26:23
And it's no wonder that as we head into the writers' strike, odd things happen.
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怪不得當我們趕往编劇罷工現場的時候，奇怪的事情會發生了。
26:26
You know, it reminds me of that old saw in Hollywood,
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你知道，這讓我想起了好萊塢的一句老話：
26:28
that a producer is anyone who knows a writer.
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製片人是任何一個認識编劇的人。
26:31
I now think a network boss is anyone who has a cable modem.
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現在我想，網路老板是任何一個擁有纜線數據機的人。
26:35
But it's not a joke. This is a real headline.
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這可不是開玩笑。這是一個真正的新聞標題，
26:37
"Websites attract striking writers:
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“網頁吸引罷工影視編劇。”
26:40
operators of sites like MyDamnChannel.com
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“象MyDamnChannel.com這樣網頁的運營者
26:43
could benefit from labor disputes."
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可以從勞資糾紛中獲益。”
26:45
Meanwhile, you have the TV bloggers going out on strike,
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同時，你可以讓電視部落格作家舉行罷工
26:48
in sympathy with the television writers.
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以此給予影視编劇們精神上的安慰。
26:51
And then you have TV Guide, a Fox property,
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電視指南，福克斯公司的下屬公司，
26:53
which is about to sponsor the online video awards --
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本來將贊助網路視頻獎的，
26:55
but cancels it out of sympathy with traditional television,
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但因為同情傳統電視業，所以取消了，
26:59
not appearing to gloat.
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而不是幸災樂祸。
27:01
To show you how schizophrenic this all is,
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為了給你證明這一切是多麼地變態，
27:04
here's the head of MySpace, or Fox Interactive, a News Corp company,
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這裏是聚友網，也可稱作福克斯互動媒體，新聞集團下屬公司的老板,
27:09
being asked, well, with the writers' strike,
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在被問及，呃，影視編劇罷工，
27:11
isn't this going to hurt News Corp and help you online?
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問這會不會傷害到新聞集團，但卻有助於你在網路上的發展？
27:15
(Video) Man: But I, yeah, I think there's an opportunity. As the strike continues,
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視頻：但是我，是的，我認為，在罷工繼續之際，有這麼一個契機，
27:18
there's an opportunity for more people to experience
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對更多人來說，這是一個親身經歷
27:20
video on places like MySpace TV.
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類似聚友電視視頻的機會。
27:23
PH: Oh, but then he remembers he works for Rupert Murdoch.
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彼得：哦，幸好他還記得他是替魯柏·梅鐸打工的。
27:26
(Video) Man: Yes, well, first, you know, I'm part of News Corporation
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視頻：是的，呃，首先，你知道，我隸屬於新聞集團
27:28
as part of Fox Entertainment Group.
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也是福克斯娛樂集團的一分子，
27:30
Obviously, we hope that the strike is --
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很顯然，我們希望這次罷工是
27:32
that the issues are resolved as quickly as possible.
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希望這些紛爭能迅速地得到解決。
27:35
PH: One of the great things that's going on here is
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彼得：這裏正在發生的一件偉大的事情是
27:37
the globalization of content really is happening.
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全球化的內容服務真正到來了。
27:40
Here is a clip from a video, from a piece of animation
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這裏是一個視頻片段，出自
27:45
that was written by a writer in Hollywood,
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由好萊塢編劇編寫的一段卡通動畫。
27:47
animation worked out in Israel, farmed out to Croatia and India,
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動畫是在以色列製作的，然後外包給克羅埃西亞和印度，
27:51
and it's now an international series.
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現在是一個國際化的系列劇。
27:57
(Video) Narrator: The following takes place between the minutes of 2:15 p.m. and 2:18 p.m.,
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視頻：以下場景發生在下午兩點十五到兩點十八之間，
28:01
in the months preceding the presidential primaries.
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在總統初選的幾個月前。
28:05
Voice 1: You'll have to stay here in the safe house
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你必須呆在安全房裏，
28:07
until we get word the terrorist threat is over.
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直到我們收到恐怖分子威脅已經結束的通知。
28:10
Voice 2: You mean we'll have to live here, together?
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你的意思，我們必須住在這裏，跟她
28:14
Voices 2, 3 and 4: With her?
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住在一起？
28:16
Voice 2: Well, there goes the neighborhood.
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呃，這裏是附近的街區。
28:18
PH: The company that created this, Aniboom, is an interesting example
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彼得：這個動畫的製作者，Aniboom, 是一個關於
28:21
of where this is headed. Traditional TV animation costs, say,
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該行業發展動向的一個很意思的例子。傳統電視動畫的成本，比方說
28:24
between 80,000 and 10,000 dollars a minute.
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在每分鐘八萬至十萬美元之間。
28:27
They're producing things for between 1,500 and 800 dollars a minute.
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他們製作的東西只要每分鐘1500到800美元之間。
28:31
And they're offering their creators 30 percent of the back end,
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而且，他們拿出尾款的百分之三十給予旗下的製作者。
28:34
in a much more entrepreneurial manner. So, it's a different model.
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這種作法更具企業家的風範。所以，這是一個不同的模式。
28:38
What the entertainment business is struggling with,
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可以清楚地看到，娛樂行業正在跟
28:40
the world of brands is figuring out.
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世界各大知名品牌抗爭。
28:42
For example, Nike now understands that Nike Plus is not just a device in its shoe,
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例如，耐吉現在明白，耐吉Plus不僅僅是鞋子裏的一個裝置，
28:48
it's a network to hook its customers together.
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而是一個把它的客戶連結在一起的網路。
28:50
And the head of marketing at Nike says, "People are coming to our site
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耐吉市場部的主管說：“人們平均每星期造訪
28:53
an average of three times a week. We don't have to go to them."
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我們的網頁三次。我們不需要主動去聯絡他們。”
28:57
Which means television advertising is down 57 percent for Nike.
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這意味耐吉的電視廣告減少了百分之五十七。
29:02
Or, as Nike's head of marketing says,
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或者，正如耐吉市場部主管說的：
29:04
"We're not in the business of keeping media companies alive.
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“我們的商業職責不是維持媒體公司的生存，
29:07
We're in the business of connecting with consumers."
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而是跟我們的客戶建立良好的溝通。”
29:09
And media companies realize the audience is important also.
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媒體公司也意識到了觀眾的重要性。
29:12
Here's a man announcing the new Market Watch from Dow Jones,
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4000
這個人正在宣佈道瓊公司的新節目《市場觀察》
29:16
powered 100 percent by the user experience on the home page --
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百分之百地由用戶在公司主頁上的體驗做為支持，
29:19
user-generated content married up with traditional content.
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用戶產生的內容跟傳統內容結合在一起。
29:22
It turns out you have a bigger audience and more interest if you hook up with them.
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其結果是，如果你跟他們聯手，你就擁有了一個更大的觀眾群體和更多利益。
29:25
Or, as Geoffrey Moore once told me,
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或者，就象傑弗瑞·摩爾曾經告訴我的，
29:28
it's intellectual curiosity that's the trade that brands need
515
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這是求知欲，是品牌在部落格空間時代
29:32
in the age of the blogosphere.
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所需的交易。
29:33
And I think this is beginning to happen in the entertainment business.
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我認為，這在即將要在娛樂業發生。
29:36
One of my heroes is songwriter, Ally Willis,
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我心目中的一個英雄是一個作曲者，艾莉·威利斯，
29:38
who just wrote "The Color Purple" and has been an R and --
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她剛剛寫了一首歌叫《紫色》，她是一個
29:42
rhythm and blues writer, and this is what she said
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節奏布魯斯的曲作者，這是她關於
29:45
about where songwriting's going.
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作曲行業走向何處的說法。
29:46
Ally Willis: Where millions of collaborators wanted the song,
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艾莉·威利斯：我們是成千上萬個想要歌曲的同盟，
29:50
because to look at them strictly as spam
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因為如果嚴格地把它們看作是垃圾信息
29:53
is missing what this medium is about.
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就會忽略了媒介本身。
29:57
PH: So, to wrap up, I'd love to throw it back to Marshall McLuhan,
525
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彼得：今天演講的收尾，我想交回給馬歇爾·麥克盧漢，
30:01
who, 40 years ago, was dealing with audiences
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40年前，他曾經跟觀眾打交道。
30:04
that were going through just as much change,
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而觀眾們現在也經歷著一系列變革。
30:06
and I think that, today, traditional Hollywood and the writers
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我認為，今天傳統意義上的好萊塢和編劇們
30:09
are framing this perhaps in the way that it was being framed before.
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勾勒故事框架的方式可能曾經被使用過。
30:12
But I don't need to tell you this, let's throw it back to him.
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但我不需要告訴你這些，還是讓他來說吧。
30:16
(Video) Narrator: We are in the middle of a tremendous clash between the old and the new.
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視頻：我們正處在一個非常了不起的新舊時代交替的碰撞。
30:23
MM: The medium does things to people
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媒體可以為人所用，
30:26
and they are always completely unaware of this.
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但他們總是不能完全意識到這一點。
30:29
They don't really notice the new medium that is wrapping them up.
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他們沒有真正注意到新媒體正在對他們形成包圍。
30:34
They think of the old medium,
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他們惦記的依然是老媒體，
30:36
because the old medium is always the content of the new medium,
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因為老媒體一直是新媒體的內容。
30:41
as movies tend to be the content of TV,
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就如同電影正趨向於成為電視的內容，
30:44
and as books used to be the content,
538
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書籍和
30:46
novels used to be the content of movies.
539
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2000
小說則是曾經是電影的內容。
30:48
And so every time a new medium arrives,
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每一個新媒體出現，
30:50
the old medium is the content, and it is highly observable,
541
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老媒體就自然成了內容，這是一目了然，
30:54
highly noticeable, but the real, real roughing up and massaging
542
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4000
顯而易見的。但是真正的磨合和信息傳遞
30:58
is done by the new medium, and it is ignored.
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是由新媒體完成的。這是，這是被忽視的。
31:00
PH: I think it's a great time of enthrallment.
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彼得：我認為這是一個沉迷的偉大時代。
31:02
There's been more raw DNA of communications and media
545
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已經有更多的通訊和媒體的原始DNA
31:05
thrown out there. Content is moving from shows to particles
546
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4000
被提煉出來。內容正從節目轉向
31:09
that are batted back and forth, and part of social communications,
547
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4000
可以被反複播放的片斷，以及社會交往的一部分。
31:13
and I think this is going to be a time of great renaissance and opportunity.
548
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這認為，這將是一個偉大的復興時代和契機。
31:18
And whereas television may have gotten beat up,
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盡管電視有可能深受打擊，
31:21
what's getting built is a really exciting new form of communication,
550
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但建立起來的是一個真正讓人興奮的新的通訊模式。
31:24
and we kind of have the merger of the two industries
551
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我們可以說是擁用了兩大工業的合併，
31:28
and a new way of thinking to look at it.
552
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和一個審視它的新角度。
31:30
Thanks very much.
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非常感謝！
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Peter Hirshberg - Entrepreneur, marketerA Silicon Valley executive, entrepreneur and marketing specialist, Peter Hirshberg might just be the definitive voice on how new technology affects business and culture.
Why you should listen
The Internet would change everything: it's a truism now, but for some, this took years to sink in. Not for Peter Hirshberg. A marketing specialist at the epicenter of emerging technology, he has spent a quarter of a century charting the reverberations of all things high tech in culture and in business. (It's big business, too.)
Hirshberg first helped bring Apple into the online services arena., then acted as strategic adviser to Microsoft, AOL and NBC. Along the way, he was CEO of Gloss.com and Elemental Software. He's built a deep understanding of the fundamentals of content production and consumption -- and how they've changed, both online and off.
Hirshberg is a trustee of the Computer History Museum and a Henry Crown Fellow of the Aspen Institute. He serves on the advisory board of Technorati and keeps up a lively blog on disruptive culture.
Peter Hirshberg | Speaker | TED.com