TEDxUCL
Hannah Fry: Is life really that complex?
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Can an algorithm forecast the site of the next riot? In this accessible talk, mathematician Hannah Fry shows how complex social behavior can be analyzed and perhaps predicted through analogies to natural phenomena, like the patterns of a leopard's spots or the distribution of predators and prey in the wild.
Hannah Fry - Complexity theorist
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future. Full bio
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:10
Thanks very much.
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非常謝謝你們。
00:11
I am Hannah Fry, the badass.
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我是壞胚子漢娜佛萊。
00:13
And today I'm asking the question:
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今天我要問的問題是：
00:14
Is life really that complex?
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人生真的那麼複雜嗎？
00:16
Now, I've only got nine minutes
to try and provide you with an answer,
to try and provide you with an answer,
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我有九分鐘的時間可以
試著提供各位一個答案，
試著提供各位一個答案，
00:19
so what I've done
is split this neatly into two parts:
is split this neatly into two parts:
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所以我要把這場演說
乾淨地切成兩部分：
乾淨地切成兩部分：
00:22
part one: yes;
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第一部分：是的；
00:25
and later on, part two: no.
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再來，第二部分：不是的。
00:27
Or, to be more accurate: no?
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或者，更精確一點：不是的？
00:30
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:31
So first of all, let me try and define
what I mean by "complex."
what I mean by "complex."
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所以，首先，讓我先定義
我所謂的「複雜」。
我所謂的「複雜」。
00:34
Now, I could give you
a host of formal definitions,
a host of formal definitions,
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我可以給各位一大堆正式的定義，
00:36
but in the simplest terms,
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但用最簡單的話來說，
00:38
any problem in complexity is something
that Einstein and his peers can't do.
that Einstein and his peers can't do.
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複雜的問題就是愛因斯坦
和他的同等級的人做不到的事。
和他的同等級的人做不到的事。
00:43
So, let's imagine --
if the clicker works ... there we go.
if the clicker works ... there we go.
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所以，咱們來想像一下——
如果這搖控器能用的話……好了
如果這搖控器能用的話……好了
00:46
Einstein is playing a game of snooker.
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愛因斯坦在玩撞球比賽。
00:48
He's a clever chap, so he knows
that when he hits the cue ball,
that when he hits the cue ball,
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他是個聰明的傢伙，
所以他知道他撞擊白球時，
所以他知道他撞擊白球時，
00:51
he could write you an equation
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他能寫出一條方程式，
00:53
and tell you exactly where the red ball
is going to hit the sides,
is going to hit the sides,
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告訴你紅球會撞到桌邊的確切位置、
00:56
how fast it's going
and where it's going to end up.
and where it's going to end up.
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它速度多快及最後會停在哪裡。
00:59
Now, if you scale these snooker balls
up to the size of the solar system,
up to the size of the solar system,
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如果把那些球的尺寸
放大到太陽系的尺寸，
放大到太陽系的尺寸，
01:02
Einstein can still help you.
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愛因斯坦還是能幫你計算。
01:04
Sure, the physics changes,
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的確，物理學會改變，
01:05
but if you wanted to know about
the path of the Earth around the Sun,
the path of the Earth around the Sun,
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但如果你想要知道
地球繞太陽轉動的路徑，
地球繞太陽轉動的路徑，
愛因斯坦能幫你寫出一條方程式，
01:09
Einstein could write you an equation
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01:10
telling you where both objects are
at any point in time.
at any point in time.
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告訴你在任何時點時
兩個物體的所在。
兩個物體的所在。
01:13
Now, with a surprising
increase in difficulty,
increase in difficulty,
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現在，難度大大增加，
01:15
Einstein could include
the Moon in his calculations.
the Moon in his calculations.
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愛因斯坦可以把月球
也納入計算考量中。
也納入計算考量中。
01:18
But as you add more and more planets,
Mars and Jupiter, say,
Mars and Jupiter, say,
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但當你加入更多星球，
比如火星和木星，
比如火星和木星，
01:21
the problem gets too tough for Einstein
to solve with a pen and paper.
to solve with a pen and paper.
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問題就變得太困難，連愛因斯坦
也無法用紙筆來解決了。
也無法用紙筆來解決了。
01:25
Now, strangely, if instead of having
a handful of planets,
a handful of planets,
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奇怪的是，若不是有許多星球，
01:27
you had millions of objects
or even billions,
or even billions,
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而是有數百萬個物體，
甚至數十億個，
甚至數十億個，
01:30
the problem actually becomes much simpler,
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問題反而會變得簡單許多，
01:32
and Einstein is back in the game.
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而愛因斯坦又可以上陣了。
01:34
Let me explain what I mean by this,
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讓我解釋一下我為什麼這麼說，
01:36
by scaling these objects back down
to a molecular level.
to a molecular level.
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我們將這些物體的尺寸
縮小為分子的等級來解釋。
縮小為分子的等級來解釋。
01:40
If you wanted to trace the erratic path
of an individual air molecule,
of an individual air molecule,
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如果你想要追蹤一個個別
空氣分子的不規律路徑，
空氣分子的不規律路徑，
01:43
you'd have absolutely no hope.
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你是毫無希望的。
01:45
But when you have millions
of air molecules all together,
of air molecules all together,
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但當你有數百萬個
空氣分子在一起時，
空氣分子在一起時，
01:48
they start to act in a way
which is quantifiable, predictable
which is quantifiable, predictable
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它們的行為會變得開始
可以量化、可以預測，
可以量化、可以預測，
01:52
and well-behaved.
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且行為良好。
01:53
And thank goodness air is well-behaved,
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謝天謝地，空氣的行為很良好，
01:55
because if it wasn't,
planes would fall out of the sky.
planes would fall out of the sky.
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因為如果不是的話，
飛機就會從天上掉下來。
飛機就會從天上掉下來。
01:58
Now, on an even bigger scale,
across the whole of the world,
across the whole of the world,
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若把範圍放更大，
延伸到整個世界，
延伸到整個世界，
02:01
the idea is exactly the same
with all of these air molecules.
with all of these air molecules.
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這個想法對所有的空氣分子而言
都是完全一樣的。
都是完全一樣的。
02:04
It's true that you can't take
an individual rain droplet
an individual rain droplet
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事實是，你無法選取
任何一滴個別的雨滴，
任何一滴個別的雨滴，
02:07
and say where it's come from
or where it's going to end up.
or where it's going to end up.
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然後就判斷出它從何而來，
或是會落在哪裡。
或是會落在哪裡。
02:10
But you can say with pretty good certainty
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但你可以蠻肯定地說
02:12
whether it will be cloudy tomorrow.
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明天哪裡會多雲。
02:14
So that's it.
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所以，就這樣。
02:15
In Einstein's time,
this is how far science had got.
this is how far science had got.
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在愛因斯坦的時代，
科學就只走到那個地步。
科學就只走到那個地步。
02:18
We could do really small problems
with a few objects
with a few objects
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我們可以解非常小的問題，
只要用幾個物體，
只要用幾個物體，
02:21
with simple interactions,
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和簡單的交互作用；
02:23
or we could do huge problems
with millions of objects
with millions of objects
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或我們可以解很大的問題，
用數百萬個物體，
用數百萬個物體，
02:25
and simple interactions.
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和簡單的交互作用。
02:27
But what about everything in the middle?
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但中間的所有其他狀況呢？
02:29
Well, just seven years
before Einstein's death,
before Einstein's death,
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在愛因斯坦死前七年，
02:31
an American scientist called
Warren Weaver made exactly this point.
Warren Weaver made exactly this point.
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有一位美國科學家叫做瓦倫韋弗，
他就建立了這個論點。
他就建立了這個論點。
02:35
He said that scientific methodology
has gone from one extreme to another,
has gone from one extreme to another,
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他說科學方法論已經
從一個極端跑到了另一個極端，
從一個極端跑到了另一個極端，
02:39
leaving out an untouched
great middle region.
great middle region.
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留下了中間區域沒有被觸及。
02:42
Now, this middle region
is where complexity science lies,
is where complexity science lies,
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這中間區域就是
複雜科學所在之處，
複雜科學所在之處，
02:44
and this is what I mean by complex.
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這就是我所謂的複雜。
02:47
Now, unfortunately, almost
every single problem you can think of
every single problem you can think of
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不幸的是，幾乎你能
想出與人類行為有關的
想出與人類行為有關的
02:50
to do with human behavior
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每一個問題，
02:51
lies in this middle region.
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都落在這個中間區域。
02:54
Einstein's got absolutely no idea
how to model the movement of a crowd.
how to model the movement of a crowd.
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愛因斯坦完全不知道要如何
針對一群人的移動來建立模型。
針對一群人的移動來建立模型。
02:58
There are too many people
to look at them all individually
to look at them all individually
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有太多人，無法
一個一個個別來看，
一個一個個別來看，
03:01
and too few to treat them as a gas.
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但又沒多到可以當氣體來看待。
03:03
Similarly, people are prone
to annoying things like decisions
to annoying things like decisions
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同樣的，人常會做煩人的事，
如決策之類的，
如決策之類的，
03:06
and not wanting to walk into each other,
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且不想要走路時撞到人，
03:08
which makes the problem
all the more complicated.
all the more complicated.
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這就讓問題變得更複雜了。
03:11
Einstein also couldn't tell you
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愛因斯坦無法告訴你
03:12
when the next stock market crash
is going to be.
is going to be.
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股市下次崩盤會是何時。
03:15
Einstein couldn't tell you
how to improve unemployment.
how to improve unemployment.
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愛因斯坦無法告訴你
如何改善失業率。
如何改善失業率。
03:18
Einstein can't even tell you
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愛因斯坦甚至無法告訴你
03:19
whether the next iPhone
is going to be a hit or a flop.
is going to be a hit or a flop.
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下一版的 iPhone 會是
大成功還是大失敗。
大成功還是大失敗。
03:22
So to conclude part one:
we're completely screwed.
we're completely screwed.
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所以，第一部分的
結論是，我們死定了。
結論是，我們死定了。
03:25
We've got no tools to deal with this,
and life is way too complex.
and life is way too complex.
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我們沒有工具來解決這些，
人生太複雜了。
人生太複雜了。
03:30
But maybe there's hope,
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但，也許，還有希望，
03:31
because in the last few years,
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因為在過去幾年，
03:33
we've begun to see the beginnings
of a new area of science
of a new area of science
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我們看到一個新的
科學領域開始出現了，
科學領域開始出現了，
03:37
using mathematics
to model our social systems.
to model our social systems.
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它是用數學來為我們的
社會系統建立模型。
社會系統建立模型。
03:40
And I'm not just talking here
about statistics and computer simulations.
about statistics and computer simulations.
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我並不只是在談統計和電腦模擬。
03:43
I'm talking about writing down
equations about our society
equations about our society
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我在談的是針對我們的
社會，寫下方程式，
社會，寫下方程式，
03:46
that will help us understand
what's going on
what's going on
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來協助我們了解發生了什麼事，
03:48
in the same way as with the snooker balls
or the weather prediction.
or the weather prediction.
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就像是撞球或是氣象預測一樣。
03:52
And this has come about
because people have begun to realize
because people have begun to realize
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會有這樣的演變，
是因為大家開始了解
是因為大家開始了解
03:55
that we can use and exploit analogies
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我們可以使用和利用人類系統
03:57
between our human systems
and those of the physical world around us.
and those of the physical world around us.
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和我們周圍實體世界的
系統之間的相似處。
系統之間的相似處。
04:01
Now, to give you an example:
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讓我舉個例子：
04:03
the incredibly complex problem
of migration across Europe.
of migration across Europe.
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極複雜的歐洲各地移民問題。
04:06
Actually, as it turns out, when you view
all of the people together,
all of the people together,
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其實，結果發現，
如果你一次一起看所有的人，
如果你一次一起看所有的人，
04:10
collectively, they behave as though
they're following the laws of gravity.
they're following the laws of gravity.
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他們集體看起來就像是
遵守著萬有引力定律。
遵守著萬有引力定律。
04:14
But instead of planets
being attracted to one another,
being attracted to one another,
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但並不是星球彼此牽引，
04:17
it's people who are attracted
to areas with better job opportunities,
to areas with better job opportunities,
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而是人被吸引到
工作機會更佳、薪水更高、
工作機會更佳、薪水更高、
04:21
higher pay, better quality of life
and lower unemployment.
and lower unemployment.
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生活品質更好，
失業率更低的區域。
失業率更低的區域。
04:25
And in the same way as people
are more likely to go for opportunities
are more likely to go for opportunities
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如同人比較有可能被現居地
鄰近區域的機會所吸引——
鄰近區域的機會所吸引——
04:29
close to where they live already --
London to Kent, for example,
London to Kent, for example,
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如倫敦到肯特郡，
04:32
as opposed to London to Melbourne --
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而不是倫敦到墨爾本——
04:34
the gravitational effect of planets
far away is felt much less.
far away is felt much less.
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星球之間若距離較長，
影響也會少很多。
影響也會少很多。
04:38
So, to give you another example:
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所以，再舉一個例子：
04:41
in 2008, a group in UCLA
were looking into the patterns
were looking into the patterns
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2008 年，洛杉磯
加州大學的一個團隊在研究
加州大學的一個團隊在研究
04:45
of burglary hot spots in the city.
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城市中的竊盜案高危險區。
04:48
Now, one thing about burglaries
is this idea of repeat victimization.
is this idea of repeat victimization.
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竊盜有一個特點，
就是重覆選擇同一個受害區域。
就是重覆選擇同一個受害區域。
04:53
So if you have a group of burglars
who manage to successfully rob an area,
who manage to successfully rob an area,
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所以，如果有一群竊賊
有辦法在一個區域成功搶劫，
有辦法在一個區域成功搶劫，
04:57
they'll tend to return to that area
and carry on burgling it.
and carry on burgling it.
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他們會傾向再次返回該區域，
進行下一次搶劫。
進行下一次搶劫。
05:01
So they learn the layout of the houses,
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他們會了解房屋的分佈、
05:04
the escape routes
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逃脫的路線，
05:06
and the local security measures
that are in place.
that are in place.
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以及已經啟用的保全措施。
05:09
And this will continue to happen
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竊盜會不斷發生，
05:11
until local residents and police
ramp up the security,
ramp up the security,
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直到當地居民和警方加強保安，
05:14
at which point, the burglars
will move off elsewhere.
will move off elsewhere.
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到了這個時點，
竊賊就會改去其他地方。
竊賊就會改去其他地方。
05:17
And it's that balance
between burglars and security
between burglars and security
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竊賊和保全之間的平衡
05:19
which creates these dynamic
hot spots of the city.
hot spots of the city.
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創造出了城市中
不斷改變的高危險區域。
不斷改變的高危險區域。
05:22
As it turns out,
this is exactly the same process
this is exactly the same process
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結果發現，這個過程就和美洲豹
05:26
as how a leopard gets its spots,
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得到身上斑點的過程相同，
05:28
except in the leopard example,
it's not burglars and security,
it's not burglars and security,
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差別在於，在美洲豹的例子中，
並不是竊賊和保全，
並不是竊賊和保全，
05:31
it's the chemical process
that creates these patterns
that creates these patterns
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是一個化學過程
創造出了這些圖案，
創造出了這些圖案，
05:35
and something called "morphogenesis."
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還有所謂的「形態發生」。
05:37
We actually know an awful lot
about the morphogenesis of leopard spots.
about the morphogenesis of leopard spots.
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我們其實對於美洲豹斑點的
形態發生所知甚多。
形態發生所知甚多。
05:41
Maybe we can use this to try and spot
some of the warning signs with burglaries
some of the warning signs with burglaries
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也許我們可以利用這一點，
試著找出將會發生竊盜的警訊，
試著找出將會發生竊盜的警訊，
05:46
and perhaps, also to create
better crime strategies to prevent crime.
better crime strategies to prevent crime.
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也許，也能創造出
更好的犯罪策略來預防犯罪。
更好的犯罪策略來預防犯罪。
05:50
There's a group here at UCL
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在倫敦大學學院有個團隊
05:51
who are working with
the West Midlands police right now
the West Midlands police right now
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現在正在和西密德蘭郡警方合作，
05:54
on this very question.
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研究這個問題。
05:56
I could give you
plenty of examples like this,
plenty of examples like this,
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我可以提出很多像這樣的例子，
05:59
but I wanted to leave you
with one from my own research
with one from my own research
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但我想要舉最後一個例子，
是我自己的倫敦暴動研究。
06:02
on the London riots.
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06:03
Now, you probably
don't need me to tell you
don't need me to tell you
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應該不需要由我來告訴各位
06:05
about the events of last summer,
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去年夏天發生的事件，
06:06
where London and the UK saw
the worst sustained period
the worst sustained period
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倫敦和英國經歷了一段暴力搶劫
06:09
of violent looting and arson
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和縱火的時期，
06:11
for over twenty years.
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是二十年來最長最糟的。
06:13
It's understandable that, as a society,
we want to try and understand
we want to try and understand
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可以理解我們這個社會
會想要試著搞懂
會想要試著搞懂
06:16
exactly what caused these riots,
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到底暴動是如何造成的，
06:18
but also, perhaps, to equip our police
with better strategies
with better strategies
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也許，也還想要協助警方
想出更好的策略，
想出更好的策略，
06:22
to lead to a swifter
resolution in the future.
resolution in the future.
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在未來能夠有更快速的解決方案。
06:25
Now, I don't want to upset
the sociologists here,
the sociologists here,
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我並不想澆社會學家冷水，
06:28
so I absolutely cannot talk about
the individual motivations for a rioter,
the individual motivations for a rioter,
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所以我絕對不談暴動者的個別動機，
06:33
but when you look at
the rioters all together,
the rioters all together,
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但當你把所有暴動者
當成整體看待時，
當成整體看待時，
06:35
mathematically, you can separate it
into a three-stage process
into a three-stage process
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在數學上，你就能將它
分成一個三階段的過程，
分成一個三階段的過程，
06:38
and draw analogies accordingly.
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並做出類推。
06:40
So, step one: let's say
you've got a group of friends.
you've got a group of friends.
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步驟一：假設你有一群朋友。
06:43
None of them are involved in the riots,
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他們都沒有涉入暴動，
06:45
but one of them walks past
a Foot Locker which is being raided,
a Foot Locker which is being raided,
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但其中一人走路經過
被襲擊的 Foot Locker 商店，
被襲擊的 Foot Locker 商店，
06:49
and goes in and bags himself
a new pair of trainers.
a new pair of trainers.
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他走進商店，為自己
拿了一雙新的運動鞋。
拿了一雙新的運動鞋。
06:51
He texts one of his friends and says,
"Come on down to the riots."
"Come on down to the riots."
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他傳訊息給一位朋友，說：
「一起來暴動吧。」
「一起來暴動吧。」
06:56
So his friend joins him,
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於是，他的朋友加入他，
06:57
and then the two of them text
more of their friends, who join them,
more of their friends, who join them,
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接著，他們又傳訊息給更多朋友，
這些朋友也加入了，
這些朋友也加入了，
07:00
and text more of their friends
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再傳訊息給更多朋友，
07:02
and more and more, and so it continues.
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越來越多，一直持續。
07:04
This process is identical to the way
that a virus spreads through a population.
that a virus spreads through a population.
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這個過程就像是病毒
在人口中散播的方式。
在人口中散播的方式。
07:09
If you think about the bird flu epidemic
of a couple of years ago,
of a couple of years ago,
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如果想想看幾年前的
禽流感大流行，
禽流感大流行，
07:12
the more people that were infected,
the more people that got infected,
the more people that got infected,
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越多人受到感染，
造成更多人受到感染，
造成更多人受到感染，
07:15
and the faster the virus spread
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病毒的散播也更快速，
07:17
before the authorities managed
to get a handle on events.
to get a handle on events.
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當權機關來不及處理這些事件。
07:20
And it's exactly the same process here.
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這裡的過程也完全一樣。
07:23
So let's say you've got a rioter,
he's decided he's going to riot.
he's decided he's going to riot.
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假設有一位暴動者決定要暴動。
07:26
The next thing he has to do
is pick a riot site.
is pick a riot site.
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他接下來要做的事，
就是選一個暴動地點。
就是選一個暴動地點。
07:30
Now, what you should know
about rioters is that, um ...
about rioters is that, um ...
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關於暴動者，各位應該要
知道一件事，呃……
知道一件事，呃……
07:33
Oops, clicker's gone. There we go.
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喔，搖控器不管用。好了。
07:35
What you should know about rioters is,
they're not prepared to travel
they're not prepared to travel
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各位應該要知道，暴動者沒準備要
07:38
that far from where they live,
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到離家很遠的地方，
07:40
unless it's a really juicy riot site.
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除非是個非常值得的暴動地點。
07:42
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
07:43
So you can see that here from this graph,
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各位可以從這張圖中看到，
07:45
with an awful lot of rioters
having traveled less than a kilometer
having traveled less than a kilometer
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有非常多的暴動者
前往暴動地點的距離
前往暴動地點的距離
還不到一公里。
07:48
to the site that they went to.
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07:50
Now, this pattern is seen
in consumer models of retail spending,
in consumer models of retail spending,
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在零售業花費上的消費者模型中
就可以看到這個模式，
就可以看到這個模式，
07:55
i.e., where we choose to go shopping.
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即我們選擇要在哪裡購物的模式。
07:57
So, of course, people like
to go to local shops,
to go to local shops,
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所以，當然，大家
都喜歡去當地的店家，
都喜歡去當地的店家，
08:00
but you'd be prepared
to go a little bit further
to go a little bit further
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但如果有個比較遠的
零售店很不錯，
零售店很不錯，
08:03
if it was a really good retail site.
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你會有打算要走遠一點。
08:05
And this analogy, actually, was already
picked up by some of the papers,
picked up by some of the papers,
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這個類推其實已經
被一些報紙採用，
被一些報紙採用，
08:09
with some tabloid press calling the events
"Shopping with violence,"
"Shopping with violence,"
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有些小報把這些事件稱為
「用暴力來購物」，
「用暴力來購物」，
08:12
which probably sums it up
in terms of our research.
in terms of our research.
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這個名稱可說是
為我們研究做了個總結。
為我們研究做了個總結。
08:15
Oh! -- we're going backwards.
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喔！放成前一張了。
08:19
OK, step three.
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好了，步驟三。
08:21
Finally, the rioter is at his site,
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最後，暴動者到了他的地點，
08:23
and he wants to avoid
getting caught by the police.
getting caught by the police.
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他想要避免被警方抓到。
08:27
The rioters will avoid
the police at all times,
the police at all times,
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暴動者會隨時避開警方，
08:30
but there is some safety in numbers.
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但數字顯示有些安全點。
08:32
And on the flip side, the police,
with their limited resources,
with their limited resources,
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一方面，警方的資源有限，
08:35
are trying to protect
as much of the city as possible,
as much of the city as possible,
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他們要盡可能保護城市中
越多的區域越好，
越多的區域越好，
08:38
arrest rioters wherever possible
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只要有可能，就要逮捕暴動者，
08:40
and to create a deterrent effect.
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並製造出威懾效果。
08:45
And actually, as it turns out,
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結果發現，
08:47
this mechanism between the two species,
so to speak, of rioters and police,
so to speak, of rioters and police,
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在暴動者和警方
這兩種「物種」之間的機制
這兩種「物種」之間的機制
08:51
is identical to predators
and prey in the wild.
and prey in the wild.
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和野外的捕食者與獵物相同。
08:54
So if you can imagine rabbits and foxes,
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你們可以想像兔子和狐狸，
08:56
rabbits are trying to avoid
foxes at all costs,
foxes at all costs,
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兔子會不計代價避開狐狸，
08:59
while foxes are patrolling the space,
trying to look for rabbits.
trying to look for rabbits.
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而狐狸會在各處巡邏，
試著找到兔子。
試著找到兔子。
09:03
We actually know an awful lot
about the dynamics of predators and prey.
about the dynamics of predators and prey.
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其實我們對於捕食者
和獵物的動態了解甚多。
和獵物的動態了解甚多。
09:06
We also know a lot about
consumer spending flows.
consumer spending flows.
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我們很了解消費者花費的金流。
09:11
And we know a lot about
how viruses spread through a population.
how viruses spread through a population.
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我們也很了解
病毒如何在人群中散播。
病毒如何在人群中散播。
09:14
So if you take these three analogies
together and exploit them,
together and exploit them,
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所以如果把這三種類推
結合起來並利用它們，
結合起來並利用它們，
09:17
you can come up with a mathematical
model of what actually happened,
model of what actually happened,
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你就可以針對真正發生的狀況，
找出一個數學模型，
找出一個數學模型，
09:20
that's capable of replicating
the general patterns
the general patterns
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這個模型能夠複製出暴動本身的
09:23
of the riots themselves.
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一般性模式。
一旦做到這點了，我們就能
把它當作培養皿來用，
把它當作培養皿來用，
09:25
Now, once we've got this,
we can almost use this as a petri dish
we can almost use this as a petri dish
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09:28
and start having conversations
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並可以開始談論
09:30
about which areas of the city
were more susceptible than others
were more susceptible than others
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城市中的哪些區域
比其他區域更容易受影響，
比其他區域更容易受影響，
09:33
and what police tactics could be used
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以及如果未來同樣的狀況再發生時，
09:35
if this were ever to happen
again in the future.
again in the future.
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警方該用什麼戰術。
09:37
Even twenty years ago, modeling
of this sort was completely unheard of.
of this sort was completely unheard of.
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即使是在二十年前，
也沒有人聽過這種建模方式。
也沒有人聽過這種建模方式。
09:41
But I think that these analogies
are an incredibly important tool
are an incredibly important tool
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但我認為這些類推
是非常重要的工具，
是非常重要的工具，
09:46
in tackling problems with our society,
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能夠追蹤我們社會的問題，
09:48
and perhaps, ultimately improving
our society overall.
our society overall.
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也許，最終還能
改善我們的整個社會。
改善我們的整個社會。
09:52
So, to conclude: life is complex,
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所以，結論是：人生很複雜，
09:54
but perhaps understanding it need not
necessarily be that complicated.
necessarily be that complicated.
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但也許，了解人生未必那麼複雜。
09:58
Thank you.
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謝謝。
09:59
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hannah Fry - Complexity theoristHannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future.
Why you should listen
Hannah Fry completed her PhD in fluid dynamics in early 2011 with an emphasis on how liquid droplets move. Then, after working as an aerodynamicist in the motorsport industry, she began work on an interdisciplinary project in complexity sciences at University College London. Hannah’s current research focusses on discovering new connections between mathematically described systems and human interaction at the largest scale.
Fry is the author of the TED Book, The Mathematics of Love: Patterns, Proofs, and the Search for the Ultimate Equation.
Hannah Fry | Speaker | TED.com