TED2017
Noriko Arai: Can a robot pass a university entrance exam?
新井紀子: 機器人可以通過大學入學考試嗎？
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大家好，為您介紹東大機器人。一個人工智慧的計畫，在東京大學入學考試測驗中名列前茅，成績排名占所有考生的前百分之 20，即便它完全都不懂任何內容。儘管它短期內還是無法擠進東大的窄門而金榜題名，但是東大機器人已經成功地敲響大眾對於未來人類教育的警鐘。我們應該如何協助學子茁壯成長，使得他們以在人類擅長的領域中讓人工智慧難以望其項背？
Noriko Arai - AI expert
Could an AI pass the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo? Noriko Arai oversees a project that wants to find out. Full bio
Could an AI pass the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo? Noriko Arai oversees a project that wants to find out. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Today, I'm going to talk about AI and us.
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今天我要跟大家聊聊
「人工智慧與你我」，
「人工智慧與你我」，
00:18
AI researchers have always said
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人工智慧研究專家常說，
00:20
that we humans do not need to worry,
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人類不需要擔心，
00:22
because only menial jobs
will be taken over by machines.
will be taken over by machines.
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因為機器只會取代那些
乏味枯燥的粗活。
乏味枯燥的粗活。
00:27
Is that really true?
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是真的嗎？
00:30
They have also said
that AI will create new jobs,
that AI will create new jobs,
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他們也說過人工智慧
可以創造新的工作，
可以創造新的工作，
00:34
so those who lose their jobs
will find a new one.
will find a new one.
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因此那些失業的人還是可以再就業。
00:38
Of course.
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當然。
00:39
But the real question is:
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只是問題的癥結是：
00:41
How many of those
who may lose their jobs to AI
who may lose their jobs to AI
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多少人因為人工智慧失業後
00:45
will be able to land a new one,
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能夠真的找到新的工作，
00:48
especially when AI is smart enough
to learn better than most of us?
to learn better than most of us?
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尤其當人工智慧已經成熟到
比大多數人都能更有效率地學習？
比大多數人都能更有效率地學習？
00:55
Let me ask you a question:
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讓我問你們一個問題：
你們之中認為在 2020 年之前
00:58
How many of you think
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01:00
that AI will pass the entrance examination
of a top university by 2020?
of a top university by 2020?
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人工智慧將可以通過
頂尖大學的入學測驗的人，請舉手。
頂尖大學的入學測驗的人，請舉手。
01:07
Oh, so many. OK.
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哇，好多。好的。
01:10
So some of you may say, "Of course, yes!"
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相當多人會認為：「那當然！」
01:15
Now singularity is the issue.
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現在「人工智慧的奇點」
是個熱門話題。
是個熱門話題。
01:18
And some others may say, "Maybe,
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也有很多人會說：「有可能，
01:21
because AI already won
against a top Go player."
against a top Go player."
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人工智慧都已經打敗過
世界頂尖的圍棋高手了。」
世界頂尖的圍棋高手了。」
01:27
And others may say, "No, never. Uh-uh."
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也有一些人持不同看法：
「絕對不可能。嗯，就是這樣。」
「絕對不可能。嗯，就是這樣。」
01:32
That means we do not know
the answer yet, right?
the answer yet, right?
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這說明了我們其實還沒有
真正的答案，不是嗎？
真正的答案，不是嗎？
01:36
So that was the reason why
I started Todai Robot Project,
I started Todai Robot Project,
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這就是我啟動
「東大機器人計畫」的始末，
「東大機器人計畫」的始末，
01:41
making an AI which passes
the entrance examination
the entrance examination
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打造一個人工智慧機器人，
通過東京大學的入學考，
01:45
of the University of Tokyo,
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01:47
the top university in Japan.
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東大是全日本最頂尖的學府。
01:51
This is our Todai Robot.
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為您介紹東大機器人。
01:56
And, of course, the brain of the robot
is working in the remote server.
is working in the remote server.
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當然，它正接受遠端伺服器遙控著。
02:02
It is now writing a 600-word essay
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正在寫一篇 600 字的論文，
02:06
on maritime trade in the 17th century.
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闡述 17 世紀的海上貿易。
02:11
How does that sound?
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聽起來如何？
02:14
Why did I take the entrance exam
as its benchmark?
as its benchmark?
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為什麼當初要將入學考試
作為一個標竿？
作為一個標竿？
02:19
Because I thought we had to study
the performance of AI
the performance of AI
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因為我想，我們有必要研究人工智慧
02:23
in comparison to humans,
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相較人類的表現，
02:26
especially on the scales and expertise
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尤其那些有規模
跟特殊性的專長領域，
跟特殊性的專長領域，
02:28
which are believed
to be acquired only by humans
to be acquired only by humans
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向來我們都相信
這些技能和知識惟有人類
這些技能和知識惟有人類
02:32
and only through education.
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透過教育才能獲得。
02:35
To enter Todai, the University of Tokyo,
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要考上日本的
第一學府，東京大學，
第一學府，東京大學，
02:39
you have to pass
two different types of exams.
two different types of exams.
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必須通過兩項測驗。
第一個是日本高考，
全國標準化的測驗，
全國標準化的測驗，
02:44
The first one is
a national standardized test
a national standardized test
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02:48
in multiple-choice style.
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全選擇題的題型。
02:50
You have to take seven subjects
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你必須在七大科目中
都獲得高分——
02:52
and achieve a high score --
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02:54
I would say like an 84 percent
or more accuracy rate --
or more accuracy rate --
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大概要達到 85% 以上的正確率——
02:59
to be allowed to take
the second stage written test
the second stage written test
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才可以獲准進入第二階段筆試，
03:03
prepared by Todai.
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由東大命題。
03:06
So let me first explain
how modern AI works,
how modern AI works,
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先讓我說明一下
當代的人工智慧運作的方式，
當代的人工智慧運作的方式，
03:12
taking the "Jeopardy!" challenge
as an example.
as an example.
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舉一個 「Jeopardy!」
《危險邊緣》 的例子。
《危險邊緣》 的例子。
03:17
Here is a typical "Jeopardy!" question:
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典型的一道題目如下：
03:20
"Mozart's last symphony
shares its name with this planet."
shares its name with this planet."
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「莫札特最後創作的交響曲
跟這個星球同名。」
跟這個星球同名。」
03:26
Interestingly, a "Jeopardy!"
question always asks,
question always asks,
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有趣的是，
《危險邊緣》的例子總是有
03:30
always ends with "this" something:
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「這個」字眼在裡頭：
03:33
"this" planet, "this" country,
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「這個」星球、「這個」國家，
03:36
"this" rock musician, and so on.
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「這個」搖滾樂手
或「這個」什麼什麼。
或「這個」什麼什麼。
03:39
In other words, "Jeopardy!" doesn't ask
many different types of questions,
many different types of questions,
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也就是說，《危險邊緣》
沒有太多類型的題目，
沒有太多類型的題目，
03:43
but a single type,
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幾乎只有這一類，
03:45
which we call "factoid questions."
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我們稱作「趣味小問題」。
有沒有人剛好知道答案呀？
03:48
By the way, do you know the answer?
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03:53
If you do not know the answer
and if you want to know the answer,
and if you want to know the answer,
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假如我們不知道答案，
但是又想要知道，
但是又想要知道，
03:58
what would you do?
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怎麼辦？
04:00
You Google, right? Of course.
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當然是上網搜尋呀——
04:03
Why not?
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為甚麼不呢?
04:04
But you have to pick appropriate keywords
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但要挑對關鍵字，
04:08
like "Mozart," "last"
and "symphony" to search.
and "symphony" to search.
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譬如輸入像「莫札特」、
「最後」跟「交響曲」去搜尋。
「最後」跟「交響曲」去搜尋。
04:13
The machine basically does the same.
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基本上機器人也是這麼做。
04:16
Then this Wikipedia page
will be ranked top.
will be ranked top.
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維基百科的頁面就會出現在最上頭。
所以機器人就開始
「讀」這個頁面嗎？
「讀」這個頁面嗎？
04:21
Then the machine reads the page.
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04:23
No, uh-uh.
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並不是喔──
04:25
Unfortunately, none of the modern AIs,
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不幸的是，所有當代的智慧機器人，
04:28
including Watson, Siri and Todai Robot,
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無論是 IBM 的華生、蘋果的 Siri
或是東大機器人，
或是東大機器人，
04:32
is able to read.
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它們都沒有「閱讀」的能力。
04:35
But they are very good
at searching and optimizing.
at searching and optimizing.
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但是它們在搜尋跟
得到最佳化結果上很在行。
得到最佳化結果上很在行。
04:40
It will recognize
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它會找到關鍵字像是
04:42
that the keywords "Mozart,"
"last" and "symphony"
"last" and "symphony"
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「莫札特」、「最後」
跟「交響曲」，
跟「交響曲」，
04:45
are appearing heavily around here.
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重複地出現在這一帶。
04:49
So if it can find a word which is a planet
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接著繼續尋找屬於星球的詞彙，
04:54
and which is co-occurring
with these keywords,
with these keywords,
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是跟前述這些關鍵字同時出現的，
04:57
that must be the answer.
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那鐵定就是答案了。
05:00
This is how Watson finds
the answer "Jupiter," in this case.
the answer "Jupiter," in this case.
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華生就是這樣找到「木星」的。
05:08
Our Todai Robot works similarly,
but a bit smarter
but a bit smarter
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東大機器人的運作方式很接近，
但在回答歷史科目的
但在回答歷史科目的
05:12
in answering history yes-no questions,
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判斷題上表現稍好，
05:16
like, "'Charlemagne repelled the Magyars.'
Is this sentence true or false?"
Is this sentence true or false?"
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例如： 查理曼大帝擊敗馬札爾人，
對還是錯？
05:23
Our robot starts producing
a factoid question,
a factoid question,
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機器人自動轉換為一道
趣味小問題，
趣味小問題，
05:27
like: "Charlemagne repelled
[this person type]" by itself.
[this person type]" by itself.
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變成：「 查理曼大帝
擊敗了這一種人」。
擊敗了這一種人」。
05:32
Then, "Avars" but not
"Magyars" is ranked top.
"Magyars" is ranked top.
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結果最上頭出現了「阿瓦爾人」
而非「馬札爾人」。
而非「馬札爾人」。
05:38
This sentence is likely to be false.
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所以這個陳述句很可能是錯誤的。
05:42
Our robot does not read,
does not understand,
does not understand,
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機器人不會閱讀，也不了解，
05:48
but it is statistically
correct in many cases.
correct in many cases.
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但從統計學角度評估，
卻具有高準確度。
卻具有高準確度。
05:54
For the second stage written test,
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至於第二階段的筆試，
05:56
it is required to write
a 600-word essay like this one:
a 600-word essay like this one:
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受測者必須寫一篇 600 字的論文，
如這一道題：
（闡述 17 世紀時東亞與東南亞
海上貿易的興衰……）
海上貿易的興衰……）
06:01
[Discuss the rise and fall
of the maritime trade
of the maritime trade
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如同我稍早展示過的，
06:04
in East and Southeast Asia
in the 17th century ...]
in the 17th century ...]
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06:06
and as I have shown earlier,
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我們的機器人將教科書
與維基百科的句子
與維基百科的句子
06:07
our robot took the sentences
from the textbooks and Wikipedia,
from the textbooks and Wikipedia,
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06:12
combined them together,
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併在一起，
06:14
and optimized it to produce an essay
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優化後形成一篇文章，
06:17
without understanding a thing.
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完全不懂字裡行間的意涵。
06:20
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
06:21
But surprisingly, it wrote a better essay
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但是令人驚訝的是，
機器人這樣寫出來的文章，
機器人這樣寫出來的文章，
06:26
than most of the students.
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居然比大多數的學生好。
06:28
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
06:30
How about mathematics?
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那麼數學呢？
06:33
A fully automatic math-solving machine
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能全自動處理數學問題的機器人，
06:36
has been a dream
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是大家都夢寐以求的，
06:38
since the birth of the word
"artificial intelligence,"
"artificial intelligence,"
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打從「人工智慧」的概念
問世以來就是如此。
問世以來就是如此。
06:43
but it has stayed at the level
of arithmetic for a long, long time.
of arithmetic for a long, long time.
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但是，它曾經
長期停滯在算術的階段。
長期停滯在算術的階段。
06:51
Last year, we finally succeeded
in developing a system
in developing a system
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去年我們總算成功發展一套系統，
06:56
which solved pre-university-level
problems from end to end,
problems from end to end,
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可以從頭到尾地
解決中等教育程度的數學題目，
解決中等教育程度的數學題目，
07:02
like this one.
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像這一題。
07:05
This is the original problem
written in Japanese,
written in Japanese,
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原文是日文。
07:09
and we had to teach it
2,000 mathematical axioms
2,000 mathematical axioms
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我們必須先教會機器人
2,000 個數學公理，
2,000 個數學公理，
07:14
and 8,000 Japanese words
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與 8,000 個日文字，
07:16
to make it accept the problems
written in natural language.
written in natural language.
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才能讓機器人
看懂原文的數學題目。
看懂原文的數學題目。
07:22
And it is now translating
the original problems
the original problems
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它現在正在翻譯原來的題目
07:25
into machine-readable formulas.
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成為機器人的語言。
07:30
Weird, but it is now ready
to solve it, I think.
to solve it, I think.
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很怪，不過應該可以開始計算了。
07:36
Go and solve it.
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開始解題。
07:38
Yes! It is now executing
symbolic computation.
symbolic computation.
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沒錯！它正在進行符號運算。
07:44
Even more weird,
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更怪了，
07:45
but probably this is the most
fun part for the machine.
fun part for the machine.
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但或許機器人會覺得這個才好玩。
07:50
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
07:52
Now it outputs a perfect answer,
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好了，它產出了一個完美的解。
07:55
though its proof is impossible to read,
even for mathematicians.
even for mathematicians.
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儘管連數學家都證實了，
完全沒有人看得懂。
完全沒有人看得懂。
08:02
Anyway, last year our robot
was among the top one percent
was among the top one percent
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無論如何，去年我們的機器人
在第二階段的數學表現中
在第二階段的數學表現中
被歸類在排名前 1%
高分的群組中。
高分的群組中。
08:10
in the second stage written
exam in mathematics.
exam in mathematics.
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08:14
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
08:18
Thank you.
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謝謝。
08:19
So, did it enter Todai?
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所以它最終有沒有考上東大呢？
08:22
No, not as I expected.
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它並沒有如預期的金榜題名。
08:26
Why?
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為什麼？
08:28
Because it doesn't understand any meaning.
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因為它根本什麼也不懂。
08:32
Let me show you a typical error
it made in the English test.
it made in the English test.
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讓我展示一個在英文科的典型錯誤。
08:36
[Nate: We're almost at the bookstore.
Just a few more minutes.
Just a few more minutes.
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（奈特：我們快到書店了，
再過幾分鐘就到了。
再過幾分鐘就到了。
桑妮：等一下。______。
奈特：謝謝！每次都這樣……）
奈特：謝謝！每次都這樣……）
兩個人在對話。
08:39
Sunil: Wait. ______ .
Nate: Thank you! That always happens ...]
Nate: Thank you! That always happens ...]
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我們都明白發生了什麽——
08:42
Two people are talking.
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08:43
For us, who can understand
the situation --
the situation --
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（選項：1. 我們走了很久的路
2. 我們幾乎快到了
2. 我們幾乎快到了
08:45
[1. "We walked for a long time."
2. "We're almost there."
2. "We're almost there."
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3. 你的鞋子看起來好昂貴
4. 你的鞋帶鬆了）
4. 你的鞋帶鬆了）
很明顯地，標準答案
是選 4，同意嗎？
是選 4，同意嗎？
08:48
3. "Your shoes look expensive."
4. "Your shoelace is untied."]
4. "Your shoelace is untied."]
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08:51
it is obvious number four
is the correct answer, right?
is the correct answer, right?
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可是東大機器人選 2，
08:54
But Todai Robot chose number two,
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08:56
even after learning 15 billion
English sentences
English sentences
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就算已經學習了
150 億個英文詞句，
150 億個英文詞句，
09:02
using deep learning technologies.
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還透過深度學習技術。
09:07
OK, so now you might
understand what I said:
understand what I said:
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好吧，現在你可能明白我所說的：
09:12
modern AIs do not read,
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當代人工智慧沒有辦法閱讀，
09:15
do not understand.
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不能理解。
09:17
They only disguise as if they do.
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它們只是佯裝成什麽都懂。
09:24
This is the distribution graph
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這個分佈圖，
代表跟東大機器人一起接受入學
考試的其他 50 萬名考生的成績。
考試的其他 50 萬名考生的成績。
09:27
of half a million students
who took the same exam as Todai Robot.
who took the same exam as Todai Robot.
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09:34
Now our Todai Robot
is among the top 20 percent,
is among the top 20 percent,
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機器人排名其中的前 20%，
09:40
and it was capable to pass
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可以考進日本
09:43
more than 60 percent
of the universities in Japan --
of the universities in Japan --
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超過六成的大學──
09:47
but not Todai.
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但就是考不上東大。
09:50
But see how it is beyond the volume zone
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可是看看被它超越的廣大區塊，
09:54
of to-be white-collar workers.
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所謂的白領階級。
10:00
You might think I was delighted.
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你可能會猜想我應該很開心。
10:03
After all, my robot was surpassing
students everywhere.
students everywhere.
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畢竟我的機器人正在
全面性地超越學生。
全面性地超越學生。
10:09
Instead, I was alarmed.
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其實不然，我很驚恐。
10:13
How on earth could this unintelligent
machine outperform students --
machine outperform students --
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這個一點都不聰明的機器人居然
表現得比學生們──
表現得比學生們──
也是我們的孩子們，更好？
10:18
our children?
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10:20
Right?
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怎麼可以？
10:22
I decided to investigate
what was going on in the human world.
what was going on in the human world.
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我決定深入調查
人類世界究竟發生了什麼事。
人類世界究竟發生了什麼事。
10:28
I took hundreds of sentences
from high school textbooks
from high school textbooks
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我收集了上百個
高中教科書裡頭的詞句，
高中教科書裡頭的詞句，
10:33
and made easy multiple-choice quizzes,
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然後編成簡單的選擇題測驗，
10:37
and asked thousands
of high school students to answer.
of high school students to answer.
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讓上千位高中生接受測試。
10:42
Here is an example:
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這是其中一個範例：
10:43
[Buddhism spread to ... ,
Christianity to ... and Oceania,
Christianity to ... and Oceania,
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題目都是用他們的母語
──日文寫的。
──日文寫的。
10:46
and Islam to ...]
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（題目：______傳播到了大洋洲。
10:47
Of course, the original problems
are written in Japanese,
are written in Japanese,
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10:50
their mother tongue.
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1. 印度教 2. 基督教
3. 伊斯蘭教 4. 佛教）
3. 伊斯蘭教 4. 佛教）
10:51
[ ______ has spread to Oceania.
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10:53
1. Hinduism 2. Christianity
3. Islam 4. Buddhism ]
3. Islam 4. Buddhism ]
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顯而易見的答案是基督教，對吧？
10:55
Obviously, Christianity
is the answer, isn't it?
is the answer, isn't it?
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10:58
It's written!
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都包含在題目所給信息裡了。
11:01
And Todai Robot chose
the correct answer, too.
the correct answer, too.
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東大機器人也選出了正確的答案。
11:06
But one-third of junior
high school students
high school students
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但是有三分之一的國中生
11:11
failed to answer this question.
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無法回答這個問題。
11:16
Do you think it is only the case in Japan?
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你以為這個問題只存在於日本嗎？
11:19
I do not think so,
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我不這麼認為，
11:21
because Japan is always ranked
among the top in OECD PISA tests,
among the top in OECD PISA tests,
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日本總是在國際學生能力評估計劃
測驗中名列前茅。
測驗中名列前茅。
11:28
measuring 15-year-old
students' performance in mathematics,
students' performance in mathematics,
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那是一套衡量 15 歲青少年在數學、
11:31
science and reading
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科學與閱讀素質的測驗，
11:33
every three years.
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每三年考一次。
11:39
We have been believing
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我們一直相信，
11:41
that everybody can learn
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每個人都能學習，
11:43
and learn well,
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並且學得出色，
11:45
as long as we provide
good learning materials
good learning materials
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只要我們提供高質量的學習資料，
11:49
free on the web
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這些免費資源，
11:50
so that they can access
through the internet.
through the internet.
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讓他們透過網路取得使用。
11:53
But such wonderful materials
may benefit only those who can read well,
may benefit only those who can read well,
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但這些優質的資料
只會讓那些能夠有效閱讀的人受益，
只會讓那些能夠有效閱讀的人受益，
12:00
and the percentage
of those who can read well
of those who can read well
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而能夠有效閱讀的人所佔的比例，
12:04
may be much less than we expected.
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可能遠低於我們的預期。
12:10
How we humans will coexist with AI
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人類要如何與人工智慧共存
12:14
is something we have
to think about carefully,
to think about carefully,
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是我們要謹慎思考的課題，
客觀考量各項可靠證據。
12:17
based on solid evidence.
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12:21
At the same time,
we have to think in a hurry
we have to think in a hurry
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同時，我們也要加緊腳步思考，
12:25
because time is running out.
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因為所剩時間不多了。
12:28
Thank you.
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謝謝。
12:29
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
克里斯 · 安德森：紀子，謝謝你。
12:34
Chris Anderson: Noriko, thank you.
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新井紀子：謝謝。
12:36
Noriko Arai: Thank you.
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克里斯：您方才向我們
說明了人工智慧的運作方式。
說明了人工智慧的運作方式。
12:38
CA: In your talk, you so beautifully
give us a sense of how AIs think,
give us a sense of how AIs think,
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12:43
what they can do amazingly
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它們可以完美勝任的，
12:45
and what they can't do.
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以及無法勝任的工作。
12:46
But -- do I read you right,
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但是，我的解讀是否是正確的，
12:48
that you think we really need
quite an urgent revolution in education
quite an urgent revolution in education
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你認為我們急需教育改革，
12:53
to help kids do the things
that humans can do better than AIs?
that humans can do better than AIs?
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以協助學子在特定的領域中
讓人工智慧難以望其項背？
讓人工智慧難以望其項背？
12:57
NA: Yes, yes, yes.
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紀子：是的。
12:59
Because we humans
can understand the meaning.
can understand the meaning.
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因為我們人類可以理解意義。
13:03
That is something
which is very, very lacking in AI.
which is very, very lacking in AI.
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而這在人工智慧中是相當缺乏的。
13:08
But most of the students
just pack the knowledge
just pack the knowledge
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但是大多數的學生都只會囫圇吞棗，
13:12
without understanding
the meaning of the knowledge,
the meaning of the knowledge,
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而非深入理解知識，
13:16
so that is not knowledge,
that is just memorizing,
that is just memorizing,
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這就只是單純記憶的動作，
13:19
and AI can do the same thing.
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人工智慧也辦得到。
13:21
So we have to think about
a new type of education.
a new type of education.
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所以我們應該要思考新型態的教育。
13:25
CA: A shift from knowledge,
rote knowledge, to meaning.
rote knowledge, to meaning.
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克里斯：從「死記硬背」
到「深入理解」的轉變。
到「深入理解」的轉變。
13:28
NA: Mm-hmm.
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紀子：嗯嗯嗯。
克里斯：我想這是給
教育家的一大挑戰，
教育家的一大挑戰，
13:29
CA: Well, there's a challenge
for the educators. Thank you so much.
for the educators. Thank you so much.
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再次感謝您。
紀子：謝謝，非常謝謝你們。
13:33
NA: Thank you very much. Thank you.
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（掌聲）
13:34
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Noriko Arai - AI expertCould an AI pass the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo? Noriko Arai oversees a project that wants to find out.
Why you should listen
Noriko Arai is the program director of an AI challenge, Todai Robot Project, which asks the question: Can AI get into the University of Tokyo? The project aims to visualize both the possibilities and the limitation of current AI by setting a concrete goal: a software system that can pass university entrance exams. In 2015 and 2016, Todai Robot achieved top 20 percent in the exams, and passed more than 70 percent of the universities in Japan.
The inventor of Reading Skill Test, in 2017 Arai conducted a large-scale survey on reading skills of high and junior high school students with Japan's Ministry of Education. The results revealed that more than half of junior high school students fail to comprehend sentences sampled from their textbooks. Arai founded the Research Institute of Science for Education to elucidate why so many students fail to read and how she can support them.
Noriko Arai | Speaker | TED.com