TED2018
César Hidalgo: A bold idea to replace politicians
凱撒 · 伊達爾戈: 取代政治人物的大膽想法
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對於我們那不健全的政治體制，凱撒 · 伊達爾戈有個很極端的建議：將它自動化！在這場煽情的演說中，他描述了一個大膽的想法，繞過政治人物，賦權給公民，讓他們創造個人化的人工智慧代表，來直接參與民主決策。這場演說要帶大家探索新的決策方式，拓展你的民主的了解。
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Is it just me,
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只有我這樣嗎？
00:15
or are there other people here
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還是這裡的其他人也都一樣，
00:17
that are a little bit
disappointed with democracy?
disappointed with democracy?
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對民主感到有一點失望？
00:20
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
00:24
So let's look at a few numbers.
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咱們先來看看幾個數字，
00:26
If we look across the world,
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如果從全球來看，
00:29
the median turnout
in presidential elections
in presidential elections
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總統大選的投票率中位數，
00:33
over the last 30 years
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在過去三十年間，
00:34
has been just 67 percent.
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只有 67%。
00:38
Now, if we go to Europe
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如果我們去看歐洲，
00:40
and we look at people that participated
in EU parliamentary elections,
in EU parliamentary elections,
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去看參與歐洲議會大選的人，
00:44
the median turnout in those elections
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那些選舉的投票率中位數
00:46
is just 42 percent.
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只有 42%。
00:50
Now let's go to New York,
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咱們來看看紐約，
00:51
and let's see how many people voted
in the last election for mayor.
in the last election for mayor.
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看看上一次的市長選舉
有多少人投票。
有多少人投票。
00:56
We will find that only
24 percent of people showed up to vote.
24 percent of people showed up to vote.
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我們會發現，只有
24% 的人出席投票。
24% 的人出席投票。
01:01
What that means is that,
if "Friends" was still running,
if "Friends" was still running,
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這就意味著，如果電視
還在演《六人行》，
還在演《六人行》，
01:04
Joey and maybe Phoebe
would have shown up to vote.
would have shown up to vote.
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只有喬伊，也許加上菲比，
會現身投票。
會現身投票。
01:07
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
01:09
And you cannot blame them
because people are tired of politicians.
because people are tired of politicians.
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你無法怪他們，因為大家
都對政治人物厭倦了。
都對政治人物厭倦了。
01:13
And people are tired of other people
using the data that they have generated
using the data that they have generated
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大家都厭倦了其他人用
他們產生出來的資料，
他們產生出來的資料，
01:17
to communicate with
their friends and family,
their friends and family,
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來和他們的朋友及家人溝通，
把他們變成政治宣傳活動的目標。
01:20
to target political propaganda at them.
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01:22
But the thing about this
is that this is not new.
is that this is not new.
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但，重點是，這現象並不是新的。
01:25
Nowadays, people use likes
to target propaganda at you
to target propaganda at you
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現今，大家選擇宣傳活動的
目標時，先看的是「按讚」，
目標時，先看的是「按讚」，
01:28
before they use your zip code
or your gender or your age,
or your gender or your age,
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而不是你的郵遞區號、
你的性別，或你的年齡，
你的性別，或你的年齡，
01:31
because the idea of targeting people
with propaganda for political purposes
with propaganda for political purposes
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因為，為了政治目的而將人們
變成宣傳活動目標的這個想法，
變成宣傳活動目標的這個想法，
01:35
is as old as politics.
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其歷史和政治一樣久遠。
01:37
And the reason why that idea is there
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會有這種想法的原因
01:39
is because democracy
has a basic vulnerability.
has a basic vulnerability.
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是因為民主有一項基本的弱點。
01:43
This is the idea of a representative.
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這個弱點就是「代表」的觀念。
01:46
In principle, democracy is the ability
of people to exert power.
of people to exert power.
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原則上，民主是人們
行使權力的能力。
行使權力的能力。
01:50
But in practice, we have to delegate
that power to a representative
that power to a representative
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但實際上，我們是把權力
委派給一位代表，
委派給一位代表，
01:53
that can exert that power for us.
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讓代表為我們行使權力。
01:56
That representative is a bottleneck,
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那代表就是瓶頸，或是弱點所在。
01:58
or a weak spot.
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01:59
It is the place that you want to target
if you want to attack democracy
if you want to attack democracy
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如果你想要攻擊民主，
你就會針對那個地方，
你就會針對那個地方，
02:03
because you can capture democracy
by either capturing that representative
by either capturing that representative
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因為若你要俘虜民主，
你可以俘虜代表，
你可以俘虜代表，
02:07
or capturing the way
that people choose it.
that people choose it.
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或者俘虜人們選出代表的方式。
02:10
So the big question is:
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所以，關鍵的問題是：
歷史就到此為止了嗎？
歷史就到此為止了嗎？
02:11
Is this the end of history?
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我們做到最好，就只有這樣嗎？
02:13
Is this the best that we can do
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02:17
or, actually, are there alternatives?
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或者，其實還有其他替代選擇？
02:22
Some people have been thinking
about alternatives,
about alternatives,
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有些人一直在想有什麼替代選擇，
02:24
and one of the ideas that is out there
is the idea of direct democracy.
is the idea of direct democracy.
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他們想出來的其中一個點子
是「直接民主」的概念。
是「直接民主」的概念。
02:28
This is the idea of bypassing
politicians completely
politicians completely
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這個概念就是完全繞過政治人物，
02:31
and having people vote directly on issues,
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讓人民針對議題直接投票，
02:33
having people vote directly on bills.
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讓人民直接投票表決法案。
02:36
But this idea is naive
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但這個概念太天真，
02:37
because there's too many things
that we would need to choose.
that we would need to choose.
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因為我們有太多選擇要做了。
02:40
If you look at the 114th US Congress,
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以第 114 屆美國國會為例，
02:43
you will have seen that
the House of Representatives
the House of Representatives
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你會發現，美國眾議院
02:46
considered more than 6,000 bills,
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要考量超過六千個法案，
02:49
the Senate considered
more than 3,000 bills
more than 3,000 bills
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參議院要考量超過三千個法案，
02:51
and they approved more than 300 laws.
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他們核准了超過三百條法律。
02:54
Those would be many decisions
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每個人一個星期內
就要做這麼多的決策，
就要做這麼多的決策，
02:56
that each person would have to make a week
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而且是他們幾乎毫無所知的主題。
02:58
on topics that they know little about.
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03:01
So there's a big cognitive
bandwidth problem
bandwidth problem
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這是一個很大的認知頻寬問題，
03:03
if we're going to try to think about
direct democracy as a viable alternative.
direct democracy as a viable alternative.
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若要把直接民主做為可行的替代選擇
就必須要考量這個問題。
就必須要考量這個問題。
03:08
So some people think about the idea
of liquid democracy, or fluid democracy,
of liquid democracy, or fluid democracy,
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所以，有些人想出一個辦法，
叫做液態民主，或液體民主，
叫做液態民主，或液體民主，
03:12
which is the idea that you endorse
your political power to someone,
your political power to someone,
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也就是你可以把你的
政治權力授予某個人，
政治權力授予某個人，
03:16
who can endorse it to someone else,
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他又可以再授予別人，
03:18
and, eventually, you create
a large follower network
a large follower network
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最終，會創造出一個
大型的追隨著網絡，
大型的追隨著網絡，
03:20
in which, at the end, there's a few people
that are making decisions
that are making decisions
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在這個網絡中，最終，
只會有幾個人負責決策，
只會有幾個人負責決策，
03:24
on behalf of all of their followers
and their followers.
and their followers.
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他們代表他們的追隨者，
以及那些追隨者的追隨者。
以及那些追隨者的追隨者。
03:28
But this idea also doesn't solve
the problem of the cognitive bandwidth
the problem of the cognitive bandwidth
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但這個想法一樣無法解決
認知頻寬的問題，
認知頻寬的問題，
03:32
and, to be honest, it's also quite similar
to the idea of having a representative.
to the idea of having a representative.
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老實說，這和採用代表的
想法沒什麼兩樣。
想法沒什麼兩樣。
03:36
So what I'm going to do today is
I'm going to be a little bit provocative,
I'm going to be a little bit provocative,
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所以，我今天打算
要走比較挑撥的路線，
要走比較挑撥的路線，
03:40
and I'm going to ask you, well:
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我要問各位：
03:42
What if, instead of trying
to bypass politicians,
to bypass politicians,
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如果，
不要繞過政治人物，
03:49
we tried to automate them?
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而是試著將他們自動化，會如何？
03:57
The idea of automation is not new.
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自動化的想法並不新奇。
04:00
It was started more than 300 years ago,
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至少三百年前就已經有了，
04:02
when French weavers decided
to automate the loom.
to automate the loom.
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那時法國的織布工決定
要將織布機給自動化。
要將織布機給自動化。
04:06
The winner of that industrial war
was Joseph-Marie Jacquard.
was Joseph-Marie Jacquard.
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那次工業戰爭的贏家是
約瑟夫 · 馬瑞 · 加卡爾。
約瑟夫 · 馬瑞 · 加卡爾。
04:11
He was a French weaver and merchant
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他是法國織布工和商人，
04:12
that married the loom
with the steam engine
with the steam engine
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將織布機和蒸汽引擎結合，
04:15
to create autonomous looms.
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創造出了自動織布機。
04:17
And in those autonomous looms,
he gained control.
he gained control.
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他靠著那些自動織布機
取得了控制權。
取得了控制權。
04:20
He could now make fabrics that were
more complex and more sophisticated
more complex and more sophisticated
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他能製造出更複雜、
更精密的布料，
更精密的布料，
04:24
than the ones they
were able to do by hand.
were able to do by hand.
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那是人工無法做出來的。
04:27
But also, by winning that industrial war,
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此外，打贏了那場工業戰爭，
04:29
he laid out what has become
the blueprint of automation.
the blueprint of automation.
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他也因此為自動化繪製出了藍圖。
04:34
The way that we automate things
for the last 300 years
for the last 300 years
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過去三百年間我們
將事物自動化的方式
將事物自動化的方式
04:37
has always been the same:
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都一直沒變過：
04:39
we first identify a need,
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首先，我們找出需求，
04:41
then we create a tool
to satisfy that need,
to satisfy that need,
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接著，我們創造出一樣工具
來滿足那個需求，
來滿足那個需求，
04:44
like the loom, in this case,
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在這個例子中，工具就是織布機，
04:46
and then we study how people use that tool
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接著，我們研究人們
怎麼使用那工具，
怎麼使用那工具，
04:49
to automate that user.
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來將使用者自動化。
04:51
That's how we came
from the mechanical loom
from the mechanical loom
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我們就是這樣子從機械織布機
04:54
to the autonomous loom,
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走到自動織布機，
04:56
and that took us a thousand years.
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那過程花了我們一千年。
04:58
Now, it's taken us only a hundred years
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後來，我們只花了一百年，
05:00
to use the same script
to automate the car.
to automate the car.
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就照著同樣的腳本將汽車自動化。
05:05
But the thing is that, this time around,
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但，重點是，這一次，
05:07
automation is kind of for real.
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自動化是玩真的了。
05:09
This is a video that a colleague of mine
from Toshiba shared with me
from Toshiba shared with me
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這支影片是我同事分享
給我的，他在東芝工作，
給我的，他在東芝工作，
05:13
that shows the factory
that manufactures solid state drives.
that manufactures solid state drives.
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影片展示出的是
製造固態硬碟的工廠。
製造固態硬碟的工廠。
05:16
The entire factory is a robot.
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整個工廠都是機器人。
05:18
There are no humans in that factory.
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工廠中沒有人類。
05:21
And the robots are soon
to leave the factories
to leave the factories
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機器人很快就會踏出工廠，
05:23
and become part of our world,
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成為我們世界的一部分，
05:25
become part of our workforce.
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成為我們勞動力的一部分。
05:27
So what I do in my day job
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我的正職
05:28
is actually create tools that integrate
data for entire countries
data for entire countries
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其實是在創造工具，
來將整個國家的資料整合，
來將整個國家的資料整合，
05:32
so that we can ultimately have
the foundations that we need
the foundations that we need
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這麼一來，最終我們就能夠有
我們所需要的基礎，
我們所需要的基礎，
05:36
for a future in which we need
to also manage those machines.
to also manage those machines.
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讓我們在未來
也可以管理那些機器。
也可以管理那些機器。
05:41
But today, I'm not here
to talk to you about these tools
to talk to you about these tools
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但，今天，我來這裡要談的不是
這些整合全國資料的工具。
05:44
that integrate data for countries.
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05:46
But I'm here to talk to you
about another idea
about another idea
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我來跟各位談的是另一個想法，
05:49
that might help us think about how to use
artificial intelligence in democracy.
artificial intelligence in democracy.
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這個想法可能可以協助我們思考
如何將人工智慧用在民主上。
如何將人工智慧用在民主上。
05:53
Because the tools that I build
are designed for executive decisions.
are designed for executive decisions.
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因為我所建造的工具
是用來做重大決策的。
是用來做重大決策的。
05:58
These are decisions that can be cast
in some sort of term of objectivity --
in some sort of term of objectivity --
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這些決策是可以
客觀做出的決策——
客觀做出的決策——
06:02
public investment decisions.
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公共投資決策。
06:04
But there are decisions
that are legislative,
that are legislative,
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但，有些決策和立法相關，
06:07
and these decisions that are legislative
require communication among people
require communication among people
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這些立法相關決策會需要大家
針對不同的觀點進行溝通，
06:11
that have different points of view,
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06:13
require participation, require debate,
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需要參與，需要辯論，
06:15
require deliberation.
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需要商議。
06:18
And for a long time,
we have thought that, well,
we have thought that, well,
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長期以來，我們都以為，
06:21
what we need to improve democracy
is actually more communication.
is actually more communication.
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若要改善民主，
我們需要的是更多的溝通。
我們需要的是更多的溝通。
06:24
So all of the technologies that we have
advanced in the context of democracy,
advanced in the context of democracy,
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所以，我們為了民主
所發展出的所有技術，
所發展出的所有技術，
06:28
whether they are newspapers
or whether it is social media,
or whether it is social media,
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不論是報紙，不論是社交媒體，
都試著提供我們更多的溝通。
06:31
have tried to provide us
with more communication.
with more communication.
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06:34
But we've been down that rabbit hole,
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但我們已經身陷困惑中了，
06:35
and we know that's not
what's going to solve the problem.
what's going to solve the problem.
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我們知道這並不能解決問題。
因為這並不是一個溝通的問題，
而是認知頻寬的問題。
而是認知頻寬的問題。
06:38
Because it's not a communication problem,
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06:40
it's a cognitive bandwidth problem.
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06:42
So if the problem is one
of cognitive bandwidth,
of cognitive bandwidth,
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如果這個問題是認知頻寬的問題，
06:44
well, adding more communication to people
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讓大家有更多的溝通
06:47
is not going to be
what's going to solve it.
what's going to solve it.
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並不會是解決方案。
06:50
What we are going to need instead
is to have other technologies
is to have other technologies
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反而，我們需要的是其他的技術，
06:53
that help us deal with
some of the communication
some of the communication
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來協助我們處理一些
讓我們超負荷的溝通。
06:56
that we are overloaded with.
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06:58
Think of, like, a little avatar,
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把它想像成是虛擬角色或軟體代理，
07:00
a software agent,
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07:01
a digital Jiminy Cricket --
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數位化的吉明尼蟋蟀——
(註：《木偶奇遇記》裡的角色）
(註：《木偶奇遇記》裡的角色）
07:03
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
07:05
that basically is able
to answer things on your behalf.
to answer things on your behalf.
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基本上，它能夠代表你來做回應。
07:09
And if we had that technology,
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如果我們有那種技術，
07:11
we would be able to offload
some of the communication
some of the communication
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我們就能夠卸下一些溝通負擔，
07:14
and help, maybe, make better decisions
or decisions at a larger scale.
or decisions at a larger scale.
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也許就能協助我們做更好的決策
或更大規模的決策。
或更大規模的決策。
07:18
And the thing is that the idea
of software agents is also not new.
of software agents is also not new.
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其實軟體代理的想法也不是新的。
07:22
We already use them all the time.
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我們已經常常在使用了。
07:25
We use software agents
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我們用軟體代理
07:26
to choose the way that we're going
to drive to a certain location,
to drive to a certain location,
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來選擇開車前往
某個地點時要走的路線，
某個地點時要走的路線，
07:31
the music that we're going to listen to
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選擇我們要聽的音樂，
07:33
or to get suggestions
for the next books that we should read.
for the next books that we should read.
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或取得建議，推薦我們
下一次要閱讀什麼書。
下一次要閱讀什麼書。
07:37
So there is an obvious idea
in the 21st century
in the 21st century
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所以，在二十一世紀，
有一個很明顯的想法，
有一個很明顯的想法，
07:40
that was as obvious as the idea
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和加卡爾那時候
將蒸汽引擎與織布機
將蒸汽引擎與織布機
07:43
of putting together a steam engine
with a loom at the time of Jacquard.
with a loom at the time of Jacquard.
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結合在一起的想法同樣明顯。
07:49
And that idea is combining
direct democracy with software agents.
direct democracy with software agents.
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那個想法就是將直接民主
與軟體代理結合起來。
與軟體代理結合起來。
07:54
Imagine, for a second, a world
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花點時間想像一下這樣的世界：
07:56
in which, instead of having
a representative that represents you
a representative that represents you
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在這個世界，並不是
由一個代表人來代表你
由一個代表人來代表你
08:00
and millions of other people,
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以及其他數百萬人，
08:01
you can have a representative
that represents only you,
that represents only you,
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你可以有單獨屬於你自己的代表，
08:05
with your nuanced political views --
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這個代表保有你細微的政治觀點——
08:07
that weird combination
of libertarian and liberal
of libertarian and liberal
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古典自由派和自由派的奇特組合，
08:11
and maybe a little bit
conservative on some issues
conservative on some issues
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也許在某些議題上有一點點保守，
在其他議題又很激進。
在其他議題又很激進。
08:13
and maybe very progressive on others.
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08:15
Politicians nowadays are packages,
and they're full of compromises.
and they're full of compromises.
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現今的政治人物都是套裝的，
且他們充滿了妥協。
且他們充滿了妥協。
08:18
But you might have someone
that can represent only you,
that can represent only you,
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但你可以有一個只代表你的人，
只要你願意接受代表人
不一定要是人類。
不一定要是人類。
08:22
if you are willing to give up the idea
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08:24
that that representative is a human.
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08:27
If that representative
is a software agent,
is a software agent,
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如果那個代表人
是個軟體代理程式，
是個軟體代理程式，
08:29
we could have a senate that has
as many senators as we have citizens.
as many senators as we have citizens.
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我們的參議院中的參議員數目
就可以跟公民數目一樣多。
就可以跟公民數目一樣多。
08:33
And those senators are going to be able
to read every bill
to read every bill
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那些參議員還能夠
讀過所有的法案，
讀過所有的法案，
08:36
and they're going to be able
to vote on each one of them.
to vote on each one of them.
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且他們能夠針對
每一個法案來投票。
每一個法案來投票。
08:39
So there's an obvious idea
that maybe we want to consider.
that maybe we want to consider.
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我們也許可以考慮
這個明顯的想法。
這個明顯的想法。
08:42
But I understand that in this day and age,
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但我了解，在現今這個時代，
08:45
this idea might be quite scary.
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這個想法可能會很嚇人。
08:48
In fact, thinking of a robot
coming from the future
coming from the future
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事實上，想想看，
一個來自未來的機器人，
一個來自未來的機器人，
08:51
to help us run our governments
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來協助我們的政府運作，
08:53
sounds terrifying.
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聽起來很嚇人。
08:56
But we've been there before.
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但以前就發生過了。
08:57
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
08:59
And actually he was quite a nice guy.
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其實他人挺好的。
09:03
So what would the Jacquard loom
version of this idea look like?
version of this idea look like?
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所以，
這想法的加卡爾織布機版本
會是什麼模樣？
會是什麼模樣？
09:10
It would be a very simple system.
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它會是個很簡單的系統。
09:12
Imagine a system that you log in
and you create your avatar,
and you create your avatar,
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想像一個你可以登入
創造你的虛擬角色的系統，
創造你的虛擬角色的系統，
09:15
and then you're going
to start training your avatar.
to start training your avatar.
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接著你就要開始
訓練你的虛擬角色。
訓練你的虛擬角色。
你可以將你的閱讀習慣提供給它，
09:18
So you can provide your avatar
with your reading habits,
with your reading habits,
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09:20
or connect it to your social media,
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或是將它與你的社交媒體連結，
09:22
or you can connect it to other data,
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或將它和其他資料連結，
09:25
for example by taking
psychological tests.
psychological tests.
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比如，去做心理測驗。
09:27
And the nice thing about this
is that there's no deception.
is that there's no deception.
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這麼做的好處是，
不會有欺騙的狀況發生。
不會有欺騙的狀況發生。
09:30
You are not providing data to communicate
with your friends and family
with your friends and family
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你並不是提供資料
來和你的朋友及家人溝通，
來和你的朋友及家人溝通，
09:33
that then gets used in a political system.
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這些資料接著就會
被一個政治系統拿來使用。
被一個政治系統拿來使用。
09:36
You are providing data to a system
that is designed to be used
that is designed to be used
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你是把資料提供給一個設計來
為你做政治決策的系統。
09:40
to make political decisions
on your behalf.
on your behalf.
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09:43
Then you take that data and you choose
a training algorithm,
a training algorithm,
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接著，你提供資料
並選擇一個訓練演算法，
並選擇一個訓練演算法，
因為它是一個開放的市場，
不同的人可以上傳不同的演算法，
不同的人可以上傳不同的演算法，
09:47
because it's an open marketplace
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09:48
in which different people
can submit different algorithms
can submit different algorithms
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09:51
to predict how you're going to vote,
based on the data you have provided.
based on the data you have provided.
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根據你提供的資料
來預測你會如何投票。
來預測你會如何投票。
09:56
And the system is open,
so nobody controls the algorithms;
so nobody controls the algorithms;
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這個系統是開放的，
沒有人能控制演算法；
沒有人能控制演算法；
09:59
there are algorithms
that become more popular
that become more popular
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有些演算法會變得比較熱門，
其他的比較冷門。
其他的比較冷門。
10:01
and others that become less popular.
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最終，你能稽核這個系統。
10:03
Eventually, you can audit the system.
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你可以看到你的
虛擬角色怎麼運作。
虛擬角色怎麼運作。
10:05
You can see how your avatar is working.
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如果你喜歡，就讓它自己運作。
10:07
If you like it,
you can leave it on autopilot.
you can leave it on autopilot.
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如果你想要有多一點控制權，
10:09
If you want to be
a little more controlling,
a little more controlling,
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你也可以選擇讓它
在每次做決策之前先詢問過你，
在每次做決策之前先詢問過你，
10:11
you can actually choose that they ask you
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10:13
every time they're going
to make a decision,
to make a decision,
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或是取這兩者之間的
任何部分控制。
任何部分控制。
10:15
or you can be anywhere in between.
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1635
我們之所以很少去
使用民主的原因之一，
使用民主的原因之一，
10:17
One of the reasons
why we use democracy so little
why we use democracy so little
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10:19
may be because democracy
has a very bad user interface.
has a very bad user interface.
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可能是因為民主的
使用者介面實在太爛了。
使用者介面實在太爛了。
10:23
And if we improve the user
interface of democracy,
interface of democracy,
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如果我們改善民主的使用者介面，
10:25
we might be able to use it more.
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也許我們會更常使用它。
10:28
Of course, there's a lot of questions
that you might have.
that you might have.
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當然，你們可能有很多疑問。
10:32
Well, how do you train these avatars?
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你要如何訓練這些虛擬角色？
10:34
How do you keep the data secure?
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你要如何確保資料安全性？
10:36
How do you keep the systems
distributed and auditable?
distributed and auditable?
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你要如何讓系統一直是
分散式且可稽核的？
分散式且可稽核的？
10:39
How about my grandmother,
who's 80 years old
who's 80 years old
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我八十歲的祖母不知道
10:41
and doesn't know how to use the internet?
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如何用網路，怎麼辦？
10:44
Trust me, I've heard them all.
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相信我，這些問題我都聽過。
10:46
So when you think about an idea like this,
you have to beware of pessimists
you have to beware of pessimists
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當你在思考這類的想法時
得要意識到有悲觀主義者，
得要意識到有悲觀主義者，
10:51
because they are known to have
a problem for every solution.
a problem for every solution.
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因為他們著名的特色就是
對每個解決方案都會有疑異。
對每個解決方案都會有疑異。
10:55
(Laughter)
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1825
（笑聲）
10:57
So I want to invite you to think
about the bigger ideas.
about the bigger ideas.
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我想要邀請各位
去思考更大的想法。
去思考更大的想法。
11:00
The questions I just showed you
are little ideas
are little ideas
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我剛剛向各位展示的
問題都是小想法。
問題都是小想法。
11:03
because they are questions
about how this would not work.
about how this would not work.
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因為它們是關於這個系統
如何無法成功的問題。
如何無法成功的問題。
11:07
The big ideas are ideas of:
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655502
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大想法指的是這些想法：
如果這個系統碰巧可行，
你還能拿它做什麼？
你還能拿它做什麼？
11:09
What else can you do with this
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1807
11:11
if this would happen to work?
225
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1889
11:13
And one of those ideas is,
well, who writes the laws?
well, who writes the laws?
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3445
其中一個想法是，誰來訂法律？
11:17
In the beginning, we could have
the avatars that we already have,
the avatars that we already have,
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4223
一開始，我們會有那些
我們已經擁有的虛擬角色，
我們已經擁有的虛擬角色，
11:22
voting on laws that are written
by the senators or politicians
by the senators or politicians
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針對參議員或政治人物
所訂的法律來投票，
所訂的法律來投票，
11:25
that we already have.
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都是既有的法律。
11:27
But if this were to work,
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但如果這個系統成功了，
11:29
you could write an algorithm
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你可以寫一個演算法
11:32
that could try to write a law
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來試著制訂出能得到
11:34
that would get a certain
percentage of approval,
percentage of approval,
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2421
一定百分比的人同意的法律，
11:36
and you could reverse the process.
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1782
你還可以把這個流程反轉。
11:38
Now, you might think that this idea
is ludicrous and we should not do it,
is ludicrous and we should not do it,
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3512
你可能覺得這個想法很荒唐，
我們不該採納，
我們不該採納，
11:42
but you cannot deny that it's an idea
that is only possible
that is only possible
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2786
但無法否認，這個想法只有在
直接民主和軟體代理是種
可參與形式的世界裡
可參與形式的世界裡
11:45
in a world in which direct democracy
and software agents
and software agents
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3020
11:48
are a viable form of participation.
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2656
才有可能實現。
11:52
So how do we start the revolution?
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2753
所以，我們要如何發動這場革命？
11:56
We don't start this revolution
with picket fences or protests
with picket fences or protests
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3310
我們發動這場革命的方式
不是用示威或抗議，
11:59
or by demanding our current politicians
to be changed into robots.
to be changed into robots.
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也不要求用機器人
取代目前的政治人物。
取代目前的政治人物。
12:03
That's not going to work.
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1549
那是行不通的。
12:05
This is much more simple,
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1612
這更簡單許多，
12:06
much slower
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1159
更慢許多，更謙卑許多。
12:08
and much more humble.
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1414
12:09
We start this revolution by creating
simple systems like this in grad schools,
simple systems like this in grad schools,
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4349
我們發動這場革命的方式
是創造像這樣的簡單系統，
是創造像這樣的簡單系統，
在研究所、圖書館、非營利機構裡。
12:13
in libraries, in nonprofits.
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2094
12:16
And we try to figure out
all of those little questions
all of those little questions
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2654
我們試著設法解決
所有的小疑問、小問題，
所有的小疑問、小問題，
12:18
and those little problems
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1221
12:20
that we're going to have to figure out
to make this idea something viable,
to make this idea something viable,
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3901
我們得要解決它們，
才能讓這個想法變成可行，
才能讓這個想法變成可行，
12:23
to make this idea something
that we can trust.
that we can trust.
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2351
才能讓這個想法變成
我們能信任的想法。
我們能信任的想法。
12:26
And as we create those systems that have
a hundred people, a thousand people,
a hundred people, a thousand people,
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3635
當我們在創造那些系統，
讓一百人、一千人、
讓一百人、一千人、
12:29
a hundred thousand people voting
in ways that are not politically binding,
in ways that are not politically binding,
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3770
十萬人以沒有政治
牽連的方式投票時，
牽連的方式投票時，
12:33
we're going to develop trust in this idea,
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2018
我們將會發展出
對這個想法的信任，
對這個想法的信任，
12:35
the world is going to change,
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1519
世界將會改變，
12:37
and those that are as little
as my daughter is right now
as my daughter is right now
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2875
現在和我女兒一樣小的那些人，
12:40
are going to grow up.
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1337
將來會長大。
12:42
And by the time my daughter is my age,
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當我女兒到我這個年紀時，
12:44
maybe this idea, that I know
today is very crazy,
today is very crazy,
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4436
也許，這個現今聽起來
很瘋狂的想法，
很瘋狂的想法，
12:49
might not be crazy to her
and to her friends.
and to her friends.
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4134
在她和她朋友看來可能並不瘋狂。
12:53
And at that point,
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1837
到那個時候，
12:55
we will be at the end of our history,
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2603
我們的歷史就走到了終點，
12:58
but they will be
at the beginning of theirs.
at the beginning of theirs.
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2821
但那會是他們的歷史的開端。
13:01
Thank you.
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謝謝。
13:02
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
César Hidalgo - PhysicistCésar Hidalgo studies how teams, cities and nations learn.
Why you should listen
César A. Hidalgo leads the Collective Learning group at The MIT Media Lab and is an associate professor of media arts and sciences at MIT. Hidalgo's work focuses on understanding how teams, organizations, cities and nations learn. At the Collective Learning group, Hidalgo develops software tools to facilitate learning in organizations. His academic publications have been cited more than 10,000 times, and his online systems, including the Observatory of Economic Complexity and DataUSA, have received more than 100 million views and numerous awards.
Hidalgo's latest book, Why Information Grows (2015), has been translated into 10+ languages. He is also the co-author of The Atlas of Economic Complexity (2014) and a co-founder of Datawheel LLC, a company that has professionalized the creation of large data visualization engines.
César Hidalgo | Speaker | TED.com