TEDSalon NY2012
Amory Lovins: A 40-year plan for energy
Filmed:
Readability: 5.3
1,248,261 views
In this intimate talk filmed at TED's offices, energy innovator Amory Lovins shows how to get the US off oil and coal by 2050, $5 trillion cheaper, with no Act of Congress, led by business for profit. The key is integrating all four energy-using sectors—and four kinds of innovation.
Amory Lovins - Physicist, energy guru
In his new book, "Reinventing Fire," Amory Lovins shares ingenious ideas for the next era of energy. Full bio
In his new book, "Reinventing Fire," Amory Lovins shares ingenious ideas for the next era of energy. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
America's public energy conversation
0
225
2262
00:18
boils down to this question:
1
2487
2223
00:20
Would you rather die of A) oil wars,
2
4710
3380
00:23
or B) climate change,
3
8090
2610
00:26
or C) nuclear holocaust,
4
10700
1400
00:28
or D) all of the above?
5
12100
3300
00:31
Oh, I missed one: or E) none of the above?
6
15400
2800
00:34
That's the one we're not normally offered.
7
18200
2115
00:36
What if we could make energy do our work
8
20315
2139
00:38
without working our undoing?
9
22454
2446
00:40
Could we have fuel without fear?
10
24900
2100
00:42
Could we reinvent fire?
11
27000
2408
00:45
You see, fire made us human;
12
29408
1630
00:46
fossil fuels made us modern.
13
31038
2054
00:48
But now we need a new fire
14
33092
1300
00:50
that makes us safe, secure, healthy and durable.
15
34392
3523
00:53
Let's see how.
16
37915
2259
00:56
Four-fifths of the world's energy
17
40174
2886
00:58
still comes from burning each year
18
43060
1773
01:00
four cubic miles of the rotted remains
19
44833
3500
01:04
of primeval swamp goo.
20
48333
2600
01:06
Those fossil fuels
21
50933
2134
01:08
have built our civilization.
22
53067
3077
01:12
They've created our wealth.
23
56144
2069
01:14
They've enriched the lives of billions.
24
58229
1576
01:15
But they also have rising costs
25
59805
2639
01:18
to our security, economy, health and environment
26
62444
4389
01:22
that are starting to erode, if not outweigh their benefits.
27
66833
3254
01:25
So we need a new fire.
28
70087
2242
01:28
And switching from the old fire to the new fire
29
72329
2902
01:31
means changing two big stories about oil and electricity,
30
75231
4036
01:35
each of which puts two-fifths of the fossil carbon in the air.
31
79267
4677
01:39
But they're really quite distinct.
32
83944
1969
01:41
Less than one percent of our electricity is made from oil --
33
85913
3412
01:45
although almost half is made from coal.
34
89325
3704
01:48
Their uses are quite concentrated.
35
93029
2279
01:51
Three-fourths of our oil fuel is transportation.
36
95308
2740
01:53
Three-fourths of our electricity powers buildings.
37
98048
2775
01:56
And the rest of both runs factories.
38
100823
2041
01:58
So very efficient vehicles, buildings and factories
39
102864
3836
02:02
save oil and coal,
40
106700
1769
02:04
and also natural gas that can displace both of them.
41
108469
3431
02:07
But today's energy system is not just inefficient,
42
111900
3685
02:11
it is also disconnected,
43
115585
2007
02:13
aging, dirty and insecure.
44
117592
2708
02:16
So it needs refurbishment.
45
120300
2477
02:18
By 2050 though, it could become efficient,
46
122777
3428
02:22
connected and distributed
47
126205
3262
02:25
with elegantly frugal
48
129467
1400
02:26
autos, factories and buildings
49
130867
2733
02:29
all relying on a modern, secure
50
133600
2367
02:31
and resilient electricity system.
51
135967
2662
02:34
We can eliminate our addiction to oil and coal by 2050
52
138629
5438
02:39
and use one-third less natural gas
53
144067
3169
02:43
while switching to efficient use
54
147236
2885
02:46
and renewable supply.
55
150121
2584
02:48
This could cost, by 2050,
56
152705
3533
02:52
five trillion dollars less in net present value,
57
156238
3252
02:55
that is expressed as a lump sum today,
58
159490
2643
02:58
than business as usual --
59
162133
1546
02:59
assuming that carbon emissions
60
163679
1454
03:01
and all other hidden or external costs are worth zero --
61
165133
3065
03:04
a conservatively low estimate.
62
168198
3884
03:07
Yet this cheaper energy system
63
172082
1951
03:09
could support 158 percent bigger U.S. economy
64
174033
3834
03:13
all without needing oil or coal,
65
177867
2369
03:16
or for that matter nuclear energy.
66
180236
2464
03:18
Moreover, this transition needs no new inventions
67
182700
3023
03:21
and no acts of Congress
68
185723
3262
03:24
and no new federal taxes, mandate subsidies or laws
69
188985
4482
03:29
and running Washington gridlock.
70
193467
2951
03:32
Let me say that again.
71
196418
915
03:33
I'm going to tell you how to get the United States
72
197333
2769
03:36
completely off oil and coal, five trillion dollars cheaper
73
200102
3311
03:39
with no act of Congress
74
203413
1346
03:40
led by business for profit.
75
204759
2510
03:43
In other words, we're going to use our most effective institutions --
76
207269
3639
03:46
private enterprise co-evolving with civil society
77
210908
3813
03:50
and sped by military innovation
78
214721
2512
03:53
to go around our least effective institutions.
79
217233
2800
03:55
And whether you care most
80
220033
2334
03:58
about profits and jobs and competitive advantage
81
222367
3431
04:01
or national security, or environmental stewardship
82
225798
2410
04:04
and climate protection and public health,
83
228208
2161
04:06
reinventing fire makes sense and makes money.
84
230369
4283
04:10
General Eisenhower reputedly said
85
234652
3446
04:13
that enlarging the boundaries of a tough problem
86
238098
2620
04:16
makes it soluble by encompassing more options and more synergies.
87
240718
4569
04:21
So in reinventing fire,
88
245287
1669
04:22
we integrated all four sectors that use energy --
89
246956
3167
04:26
transportation, buildings, industry and electricity --
90
250123
3639
04:29
and we integrated four kinds of innovation,
91
253762
2623
04:32
not just technology and policy,
92
256385
2548
04:34
but also design and business strategy.
93
258933
3100
04:37
Those combinations yield
94
262033
2015
04:39
very much more than the sum of the parts,
95
264048
2106
04:42
especially in creating deeply disruptive business opportunities.
96
266154
5346
04:47
Oil costs our economy two billion dollars a day,
97
271500
4048
04:51
plus another four billion dollars a day
98
275548
2367
04:53
in hidden economic and military costs,
99
277915
2647
04:56
raising its total cost to over a sixth of GDP.
100
280562
3930
05:00
Our mobility fuel goes three-fifths to automobiles.
101
284492
2544
05:02
So let's start by making autos oil free.
102
287036
2646
05:05
Two-thirds of the energy it takes to move a typical car
103
289682
3180
05:08
is caused by its weight.
104
292862
2202
05:10
And every unit of energy you save at the wheels,
105
295064
3507
05:14
by taking out weight or drag,
106
298571
1247
05:15
saves seven units in the tank,
107
299818
2030
05:17
because you don't have to waste six units
108
301848
1685
05:19
getting the energy to the wheels.
109
303533
2100
05:21
Unfortunately, over the past quarter century,
110
305633
3585
05:25
epidemic obesity has made our two-ton steel cars
111
309218
2715
05:27
gain weight twice as fast as we have.
112
311933
3823
05:31
But today, ultralight, ultrastrong materials,
113
315756
3654
05:35
like carbon fiber composites,
114
319410
2569
05:37
can make dramatic weight savings snowball
115
321995
2372
05:40
and can make cars simpler and cheaper to build.
116
324367
3915
05:44
Lighter and more slippery autos
117
328282
2366
05:46
need less force to move them,
118
330648
2247
05:48
so their engines get smaller.
119
332895
2274
05:51
Indeed, that sort of vehicle fitness
120
335169
2831
05:53
then makes electric propulsion affordable
121
338000
3167
05:57
because the batteries or fuel cells
122
341167
3133
06:00
also get smaller and lighter and cheaper.
123
344300
3600
06:03
So sticker prices will ultimately fall to about the same as today,
124
347900
3900
06:07
while the driving cost, even from the start,
125
351800
3521
06:11
is very much lower.
126
355321
1748
06:12
So these innovations together can transform automakers
127
357069
4146
06:17
from wringing tiny savings
128
361215
2362
06:19
out of Victorian engine and seal-stamping technologies
129
363577
3331
06:22
to the steeply falling costs
130
366908
2738
06:25
of three linked innovations that strongly reenforce each other --
131
369646
5100
06:30
namely ultralight materials, making them into structures
132
374746
3923
06:34
and electric propulsion.
133
378669
2331
06:36
The sales can grow and the prices fall even faster
134
381000
4700
06:41
with temporary feebates,
135
385700
1708
06:43
that is rebates for efficient new autos
136
387408
2254
06:45
paid for by fees on inefficient ones.
137
389662
3100
06:48
And just in the first two years
138
392762
2846
06:51
the biggest of Europe's five feebate programs
139
395608
3448
06:54
has tripled the speed of improving automotive efficiency.
140
399056
4046
06:59
The resulting shift to electric autos
141
403102
3429
07:02
is going to be as game-changing
142
406531
1471
07:03
as shifting from typewriters to the gains in computers.
143
408002
4198
07:08
Of course, computers and electronics
144
412200
2100
07:10
are now America's biggest industry,
145
414300
2300
07:12
while typewriter makers have vanished.
146
416600
2154
07:14
So vehicle fitness
147
418754
1921
07:16
opens a new automotive competitive strategy
148
420675
3569
07:20
that can double the oil savings over the next 40 years,
149
424244
3254
07:23
but then also make electrification affordable,
150
427498
2877
07:26
and that displaces the rest of the oil.
151
430375
3984
07:30
America could lead this next automotive revolution.
152
434359
3556
07:33
Currently the leader is Germany.
153
437915
2485
07:36
Last year, Volkswagen announced
154
440400
2508
07:38
that by next year they'll be producing
155
442908
2223
07:41
this carbon fiber plugin hybrid
156
445131
2869
07:43
getting 230 miles a gallon.
157
448000
2408
07:46
Also last year, BMW announced
158
450408
2515
07:48
this carbon fiber electric car,
159
452923
2269
07:51
they said that its carbon fiber is paid for
160
455192
1975
07:53
by needing fewer batteries.
161
457167
2054
07:55
And they said, "We do not intend to be a typewriter maker."
162
459221
2531
07:57
Audi claimed it's going to beat them both by a year.
163
461767
3508
08:01
Seven years ago, an even faster and cheaper
164
465275
3225
08:04
American manufacturing technology
165
468500
2592
08:06
was used to make this little carbon fiber test part,
166
471092
7444
08:14
which doubles as a carbon cap.
167
478536
2339
08:16
(Laughter)
168
480875
1563
08:18
In one minute -- and you can tell from the sound
169
482438
3062
08:21
how immensely stiff and strong it is.
170
485500
2833
08:24
Don't worry about dropping it, it's tougher than titanium.
171
488333
3492
08:27
Tom Friedman actually whacked it as hard as he could with a sledgehammer
172
491825
2223
08:29
without even scuffing it.
173
494048
1539
08:31
But such manufacturing techniques
174
495587
2115
08:33
can scale to automotive speed and cost
175
497702
3223
08:36
with aerospace performance.
176
500925
1454
08:38
They can save four-fifths of the capital needed to make autos.
177
502379
3521
08:41
They can save lives
178
505900
1162
08:42
because this stuff can absorb
179
507062
1292
08:44
up to 12 times as much crash energy per pound as steel.
180
508354
3264
08:47
If we made all of our autos this way,
181
511618
1749
08:49
it would save oil equivalent to finding
182
513367
2923
08:52
one and a half Saudi Arabias, or half an OPEC,
183
516290
2832
08:55
by drilling in the Detroit formation, a very prospective play.
184
519122
4432
08:59
And all those mega-barrels under Detroit
185
523554
2700
09:02
cost an average of 18 bucks a barrel.
186
526254
2513
09:04
They are all-American, carbon-free
187
528767
1846
09:06
and inexhaustible.
188
530613
2320
09:08
The same physics and the same business logic
189
532933
2754
09:11
also apply to big vehicles.
190
535687
1546
09:13
In the five years ending with 2010,
191
537233
2692
09:15
Walmart saved 60 percent of the fuel per ton-mile
192
539925
4575
09:20
in its giant fleet of heavy trucks
193
544500
1400
09:21
through better logistics and design.
194
545900
1400
09:23
But just the technological savings in heavy trucks
195
547300
3015
09:26
can get to two-thirds.
196
550315
1885
09:28
And combined with triple to quintuple efficiency airplanes,
197
552200
3287
09:31
now on the drawing board,
198
555487
1721
09:33
can save close to a trillion dollars.
199
557208
2246
09:35
Also today's military revolution in energy efficiency
200
559454
4369
09:39
is going to speed up all of these civilian advances
201
563823
2977
09:42
in much the same way that military R&D
202
566800
2529
09:45
has given us the Internet, the Global Positioning System
203
569329
3194
09:48
and the jet engine and microchip industries.
204
572523
3069
09:51
As we design and build vehicles better,
205
575592
3523
09:55
we can also use them smarter
206
579115
2100
09:57
by harnessing four powerful techniques
207
581215
2247
09:59
for eliminating needless driving.
208
583462
1992
10:01
Instead of just seeing the travel grow,
209
585454
2792
10:04
we can use innovative pricing,
210
588246
2654
10:06
charging for road infrastructure by the mile, not by the gallon.
211
590900
3954
10:10
We can use some smart IT to enhance transit
212
594854
3246
10:14
and enable car sharing and ride sharing.
213
598100
3541
10:17
We can allow smart and lucrative growth models
214
601641
4259
10:21
that help people already be near where they want to be,
215
605900
4177
10:25
so they don't need to go somewhere else.
216
610077
1513
10:27
And we can use smart IT
217
611590
2110
10:29
to make traffic free-flowing.
218
613700
2536
10:32
Together, those things can give us the same or better access
219
616252
2815
10:34
with 46 to 84 percent less driving,
220
619067
4500
10:39
saving another 0.4 trillion dollars,
221
623567
2638
10:42
plus 0.3 trillion dollars from using trucks more productively.
222
626205
4995
10:47
So 40 years hence, when you add it all up,
223
631200
2705
10:49
a far more mobile U.S. economy
224
633905
3008
10:52
can use no oil.
225
636913
2079
10:54
Saving or displacing barrels for 25 bucks
226
638992
3508
10:58
rather than buying them for over a hundred,
227
642500
1400
10:59
adds up to a $4 trillion net saving
228
643900
3775
11:03
counting all the hidden costs at zero.
229
647675
3007
11:06
So to get mobility without oil,
230
650682
2918
11:09
to phase out the oil,
231
653600
2100
11:11
we can get efficient and then switch fuels.
232
655700
3431
11:15
Those 125 to 240 mile-per-gallon-equivalent autos
233
659131
4344
11:19
can use any mixture of hydrogen fuel cells,
234
663475
3843
11:23
electricity and advanced biofuels.
235
667318
3111
11:26
The trucks and planes can realistically use
236
670429
3653
11:29
hydrogen or advanced biofuels.
237
674082
2820
11:32
The trucks could even use natural gas.
238
676902
2065
11:34
But no vehicles will need oil.
239
678967
2000
11:36
And the most biofuel we might need,
240
680967
3085
11:39
just three million barrels a day,
241
684052
1743
11:41
can be made two-thirds from waste
242
685795
1638
11:43
without displacing any cropland
243
687433
1834
11:45
and without harming soil or climate.
244
689267
3033
11:48
Our team speeds up these kinds of oil savings
245
692300
2015
11:50
by what we call "institutional acupuncture."
246
694315
2952
11:53
We figure out where the business logic
247
697267
1400
11:54
is congested and not flowing properly,
248
698667
2469
11:57
we stick little needles in it to get it flowing,
249
701136
1812
11:58
working with partners like Ford and Walmart and the Pentagon.
250
702948
2493
12:01
And the long transition is already well under way.
251
705441
3461
12:04
In fact, three years ago mainstream analysts were starting to see peak oil,
252
708902
4303
12:09
not in supply, but in demand.
253
713205
2947
12:12
And Deutsche Bank even said world oil use could peak around 2016.
254
716152
5112
12:17
In other words, oil is getting uncompetitive even at low prices
255
721264
4661
12:21
before it becomes unavailable even at high prices.
256
725925
4093
12:25
But the electrified vehicles
257
730018
2926
12:28
don't need to burden the electricity grid.
258
732944
2777
12:31
Rather, when smart autos exchange electricity and information
259
735721
3435
12:35
through smart buildings with smart grids,
260
739156
2426
12:37
they're adding to the grid valuable flexibility and storage
261
741582
3316
12:40
that help the grid integrate
262
744898
1850
12:42
varying solar and wind power.
263
746748
2847
12:45
So the electrified autos
264
749595
1676
12:47
make the auto and electricity problems
265
751271
2624
12:49
easier to solve together than separately.
266
753895
2238
12:52
And they also converge the oil story
267
756133
1831
12:53
with our second big story,
268
757964
2584
12:56
saving electricity and then making it differently.
269
760548
3760
13:00
And those twin revolutions in electricity
270
764308
2982
13:03
will bring to that sector
271
767290
3054
13:06
more numerous and profound and diverse disruptions
272
770344
2785
13:09
than any other sector,
273
773129
1361
13:10
because we've got 21st century technology and speed colliding head-on
274
774490
4215
13:14
with 20th and 19th century institutions, rules and cultures.
275
778705
4695
13:19
Changing how we make electricity gets easier
276
783400
3075
13:22
if we need less of it.
277
786475
2515
13:24
Most of it now is wasted
278
788990
1662
13:26
and the technologies for saving it
279
790652
1981
13:28
keep improving faster than we're installing them.
280
792633
2954
13:31
So the unbought efficiency resource
281
795587
2446
13:33
keeps getting ever bigger and cheaper.
282
798033
2900
13:36
But as efficiency in buildings and industry
283
800933
3062
13:39
starts to grow faster than the economy,
284
803995
1972
13:41
America's electricity use could actually shrink,
285
805967
4423
13:46
even with the little extra use required
286
810390
3597
13:49
for those efficient electrified autos.
287
813987
1980
13:51
And we can do this just by reasonably accelerating existing trends.
288
815967
4828
13:56
Over the next 40 years, buildings,
289
820795
2338
13:59
which use three-quarters of the electricity,
290
823133
2208
14:01
can triple or quadruple their energy productivity,
291
825341
3834
14:05
saving 1.4 trillion dollars, net present value,
292
829175
3925
14:09
with a 33 percent internal rate of return
293
833100
3600
14:12
or in English,
294
836700
1671
14:14
the savings are worth four times what they cost.
295
838371
3196
14:17
And industry can accelerate too,
296
841567
2238
14:19
doubling its energy productivity
297
843805
1716
14:21
with a 21 percent internal rate of return.
298
845521
2948
14:24
The key is a disruptive innovation
299
848469
2039
14:26
that we call integrative design
300
850508
2823
14:29
that often makes very big energy savings
301
853331
2928
14:32
cost less than small or no savings.
302
856259
2477
14:34
That is, it can give you expanding returns,
303
858736
2628
14:37
not diminishing returns.
304
861364
1854
14:39
That is how our 2010 retrofit
305
863218
3746
14:42
is saving over two-fifths of the energy in the Empire State Building --
306
866964
3203
14:46
remanufacturing those six and a half thousand windows on site
307
870167
4154
14:50
into super windows that pass light, but reflect heat.
308
874321
4312
14:54
plus better lights and office equipment and such
309
878633
3185
14:57
cut the maximum cooling load by a third.
310
881818
3615
15:01
And then renovating smaller chillers instead of adding bigger ones
311
885433
5067
15:06
saved 17 million dollars of
312
890500
1523
15:07
capital cost, which helped pay for the other improvements
313
892023
3377
15:11
and reduce the payback to just three years.
314
895400
4044
15:15
Integrative design can also increase
315
899444
2223
15:17
energy savings in industry.
316
901667
2208
15:19
Dow's billion-dollar efficiency investment
317
903875
1992
15:21
has already returned nine billion dollars.
318
905867
3300
15:25
But industry as a whole has another half-trillion dollars
319
909167
2946
15:28
of energy still to save.
320
912113
2195
15:30
For example, three-fifths of the world's electricity runs motors.
321
914308
4559
15:34
Half of that runs pumps and fans.
322
918867
2069
15:36
And those can all be made more efficient,
323
920936
2874
15:39
and the motors that turn them
324
923810
1715
15:41
can have their system efficiency roughly doubled
325
925525
3650
15:45
by integrating 35 improvements, paying back in about a year.
326
929175
3915
15:48
But first we ought to be capturing bigger, cheaper savings
327
933090
3228
15:52
that are normally ignored and are not in the textbooks.
328
936318
2649
15:54
For example, pumps, the biggest use of motors,
329
938967
3154
15:58
move liquid through pipes.
330
942121
1817
15:59
But a standard industrial pumping loop
331
943938
1800
16:01
was redesigned to use at least 86 percent less energy,
332
945738
4377
16:06
not by getting better pumps,
333
950115
1939
16:07
but just by replacing long, thin, crooked pipes
334
952054
3382
16:11
with fat, short, straight pipes.
335
955436
2616
16:13
This is not about new technology,
336
958052
3215
16:17
it's just rearranging our metal furniture.
337
961267
1977
16:19
Of course, it also shrinks the pumping equipment
338
963244
2354
16:21
and its capital costs.
339
965598
1715
16:23
So what do such savings mean
340
967313
2620
16:25
for the electricity that is three-fifths used in motors?
341
969933
3682
16:29
Well, from the coal burned at the power plant
342
973615
3100
16:32
through all these compounding losses,
343
976715
3121
16:35
only a tenth of the fuel energy
344
979836
2823
16:38
actually ends up coming out the pipe as flow.
345
982659
3000
16:41
But now let's turn those compounding losses around backwards,
346
985659
3674
16:45
and every unit of flow or friction that we save in the pipe
347
989333
5631
16:50
saves 10 units of fuel cost, pollution
348
994964
4144
16:55
and what Hunter Lovins calls "global weirding"
349
999108
2607
16:57
back at the power plant.
350
1001731
1402
16:59
And of course, as you go back upstream,
351
1003133
1692
17:00
the components get smaller and therefore cheaper.
352
1004825
3300
17:04
Our team has lately found such snowballing energy savings
353
1008125
4580
17:08
in more than 30 billion dollars worth of industrial redesigns --
354
1012705
3233
17:11
everything from data centers and chip fabs
355
1015938
2729
17:14
to mines and refineries.
356
1018667
2192
17:16
Typically our retrofit designs
357
1020859
1441
17:18
save about 30 to 60 percent of the energy
358
1022300
2954
17:21
and pay back in a few years,
359
1025254
1946
17:23
while the new facility designs save 40 to 90-odd percent
360
1027200
4154
17:27
with generally lower capital cost.
361
1031369
2431
17:29
Now needing less electricity
362
1033800
3064
17:32
would ease and speed
363
1036864
2315
17:35
the shift to new sources of electricity, chiefly renewables.
364
1039179
3162
17:38
China leads their explosive growth and their plummeting cost.
365
1042341
4484
17:42
In fact, these solar power module costs
366
1046825
3421
17:46
have just fallen off the bottom of the chart.
367
1050246
2379
17:48
And Germany now has more solar workers
368
1052625
3070
17:51
than America has steel workers.
369
1055695
2638
17:54
Already in about 20 states
370
1058333
1846
17:56
private installers will come
371
1060179
2354
17:58
put those cheap solar cells on your roof with no money down
372
1062533
3485
18:01
and beat your utility bill.
373
1066018
1869
18:03
Such unregulated products
374
1067887
2192
18:05
could ultimately add up to a virtual utility
375
1070079
2854
18:08
that bypasses your electric company
376
1072933
2954
18:11
just as your cellphone bypassed your wireline phone company.
377
1075887
3831
18:15
And this sort of thing gives utility executives the heebee-jeebees
378
1079718
3418
18:19
and it gives venture capitalists sweet dreams.
379
1083136
2223
18:21
Renewables are no longer a fringe activity.
380
1085359
3093
18:24
For each of the past four years
381
1088452
2477
18:26
half of the world's new generating capacity
382
1090929
2838
18:29
has been renewable,
383
1093767
1597
18:31
mainly lately in developing countries.
384
1095364
1692
18:32
In 2010, renewables other than big hydro,
385
1097056
4292
18:37
particularly wind and solar cells,
386
1101348
2331
18:39
got 151 billion dollars of private investment,
387
1103679
4992
18:44
and they actually surpassed the total installed capacity
388
1108671
2585
18:47
of nuclear power in the world
389
1111256
1685
18:48
by adding 60 billion watts in that one year.
390
1112941
3459
18:52
That happens to be the same amount of solar cell capacity
391
1116400
3700
18:56
that the world can now make every year --
392
1120100
2815
18:58
a number that goes up 60 or 70 percent a year.
393
1122915
3347
19:02
In contrast, the net additions of nuclear capacity and coal capacity
394
1126262
5533
19:07
and the orders behind those keep fading
395
1131795
3569
19:11
because they cost too much and they have too much financial risk.
396
1135364
2536
19:13
In fact in this country,
397
1137900
1400
19:15
no new nuclear power plant
398
1139300
2115
19:17
has been able to raise any private construction capital,
399
1141415
2518
19:19
despite seven years of 100-plus percent subsidies.
400
1143933
4415
19:24
So how else could we replace the coal-fired power plants?
401
1148348
4004
19:28
Well efficiency and gas can displace them all
402
1152352
3769
19:32
at just below their operating cost
403
1156121
2684
19:34
and, combined with renewables, can displace them more than 23 times
404
1158805
3754
19:38
at less than their replacement cost.
405
1162559
2074
19:40
But we only need to replace them once.
406
1164633
2008
19:42
We're often told though
407
1166641
2688
19:45
that only coal and nuclear plants can keep the lights on,
408
1169329
2381
19:47
because they're 24/7,
409
1171710
1285
19:48
whereas wind and solar power are variable,
410
1172995
2823
19:51
and hence supposedly unreliable.
411
1175818
3015
19:54
Actually no generator is 24/7. They all break.
412
1178833
3385
19:58
And when a big plant goes down,
413
1182218
2115
20:00
you lose a thousand megawatts in milliseconds,
414
1184333
2792
20:03
often for weeks or months, often without warning.
415
1187125
3493
20:06
That is exactly why we've designed the grid
416
1190618
1997
20:08
to back up failed plants with working plants.
417
1192615
4270
20:12
And in exactly the same way,
418
1196885
1730
20:14
the grid can handle wind and solar power's
419
1198615
5031
20:19
forecastable variations.
420
1203646
2549
20:22
Hourly simulations
421
1206195
3307
20:25
show that largely or wholly renewable grids
422
1209502
3767
20:29
can deliver highly reliable power
423
1213269
1777
20:30
when they're forecasted,
424
1215046
1629
20:32
integrated and diversified
425
1216675
2054
20:34
by both type and location.
426
1218729
2053
20:36
And that's true both for continental areas like the U.S. or Europe
427
1220782
4223
20:40
and for smaller areas embedded within a larger grid.
428
1225005
4485
20:45
That is how, for example,
429
1229490
1639
20:47
four German states in 2010
430
1231129
2384
20:49
were 43 to 52 percent wind powered.
431
1233513
2597
20:52
Portugal was 45 percent renewable powered,
432
1236125
3642
20:55
Denmark 36.
433
1239767
2325
20:57
And it's how all of Europe can shift
434
1242092
3285
21:01
to renewable electricity.
435
1245377
1285
21:02
In America, our aging, dirty and insecure power system
436
1246662
4725
21:07
has to be replaced anyway by 2050.
437
1251387
2884
21:10
And whatever we replace it with
438
1254271
1627
21:11
is going to cost about the same,
439
1255898
1438
21:13
about six trillion dollars at present value --
440
1257336
2710
21:15
whether we buy more of what we've got
441
1260046
2208
21:18
or new nuclear and so-called clean coal,
442
1262254
2113
21:20
or renewables that are more or less centralized.
443
1264367
3631
21:23
But those four futures at the same cost
444
1267998
3269
21:27
differ profoundly in their risks,
445
1271267
2069
21:29
around national security,
446
1273336
2531
21:31
fuel, water, finance, technology,
447
1275867
3538
21:35
climate and health.
448
1279405
1531
21:36
For example, our over-centralized grid
449
1280936
2835
21:39
is very vulnerable to cascading
450
1283771
3931
21:43
and potentially economy-shattering blackouts
451
1287702
2727
21:46
caused by bad space weather or other natural disasters
452
1290429
3438
21:49
or a terrorist attack.
453
1293867
1946
21:51
But that blackout risk disappears,
454
1295813
2731
21:54
and all of the other risks are best managed,
455
1298544
1977
21:56
with distributed renewables
456
1300536
2254
21:58
organized into local micro-grids that normally interconnect,
457
1302790
4277
22:02
but can stand alone at need.
458
1307067
1808
22:04
That is, they can disconnect fractally
459
1308875
2038
22:06
and then reconnect seamlessly.
460
1310913
2854
22:09
That approach is exactly what the Pentagon is adopting
461
1313767
3277
22:12
for its own power supply.
462
1317044
1315
22:14
They think they need that; how about the rest of us that they're defending?
463
1318359
3266
22:17
We want our stuff to work too.
464
1321625
1685
22:19
At about the same cost as business as usual,
465
1323325
3570
22:22
this would maximize national security,
466
1326895
2005
22:24
customer choice, entrepreneurial opportunity
467
1328900
4002
22:28
and innovation.
468
1332902
1623
22:30
Together, efficient use and diverse dispersed renewable supply
469
1334525
5675
22:36
are starting to transform the whole electricity sector.
470
1340200
2923
22:39
Traditionally utilities build
471
1343123
1631
22:40
a lot of giant coal and nuclear plants
472
1344754
2169
22:42
and a bunch of big gas plants
473
1346923
1946
22:44
and maybe a little bit of efficiency renewables.
474
1348869
1069
22:45
And those utilities were rewarded,
475
1349938
2529
22:48
as they still are in 34 states,
476
1352467
2454
22:50
for selling you more electricity.
477
1354921
3466
22:54
However, especially where regulators
478
1358387
2798
22:57
are now instead rewarding cutting your bills,
479
1361185
3553
23:00
the investments are shifting radically
480
1364738
3783
23:04
toward efficiency, demand response, cogeneration,
481
1368521
2531
23:06
renewables and ways to knit them all together reliably
482
1371052
3369
23:10
with less transmission
483
1374421
1423
23:11
and little or no bulk electricity storage.
484
1375844
2854
23:14
So our energy future is not fate, but choice,
485
1378698
2827
23:17
and that choice is very flexible.
486
1381525
2746
23:20
In 1976, for example,
487
1384271
1600
23:21
government and industry insisted
488
1385871
1808
23:23
that the amount of energy needed to make a dollar of GDP
489
1387695
2584
23:26
could never go down.
490
1390279
1783
23:27
And I heretically suggested it could go down several-fold.
491
1392062
3630
23:31
Well that's what's actually happened so far.
492
1395692
2249
23:33
It's fallen by half.
493
1397956
1315
23:35
But with today's much better technologies,
494
1399271
2491
23:37
more mature delivery channels and integrative design,
495
1401762
2909
23:40
we can do far more and even cheaper.
496
1404671
3900
23:44
So to solve the energy problem,
497
1408571
2508
23:46
we just needed to enlarge it.
498
1411079
1921
23:48
And the results may at first seem incredible,
499
1413000
3200
23:52
but as Marshall McLuhan said,
500
1416200
1777
23:53
"Only puny secrets need protection.
501
1417977
2752
23:56
Big discoveries are protected by public incredulity."
502
1420729
6084
24:02
Now combine the electricity and oil revolutions,
503
1426813
3482
24:06
both driven by modern efficiency,
504
1430295
1684
24:07
and you get the really big story: reinventing fire,
505
1431979
3542
24:11
where business enabled and sped by smart policies in mindful markets
506
1435521
5131
24:16
can lead the United States completely off oil and coal by 2050,
507
1440652
4530
24:21
saving 5 trillion dollars,
508
1445182
2320
24:23
growing the economy 2.6-fold,
509
1447502
2593
24:25
strengthening out national security,
510
1450095
1643
24:27
oh, and by the way, by getting rid of the oil and coal,
511
1451738
2985
24:30
reducing the fossil carbon emissions by 82 to 86 percent.
512
1454723
4510
24:35
Now if you like any of those outcomes,
513
1459233
3334
24:38
you can support reinventing fire
514
1462567
2192
24:40
without needing to like all of them
515
1464759
1862
24:42
and without needing to agree about which of them is most important.
516
1466621
3423
24:45
So focusing on outcomes, not motives,
517
1470044
3077
24:49
can turn gridlock and conflict
518
1473121
2556
24:51
into a unifying solution to America's energy challenge.
519
1475677
4302
24:55
This also turns out to be the best way
520
1479979
3057
24:58
to cope with global challenges --
521
1483036
2500
25:01
climate change, nuclear proliferation,
522
1485536
2579
25:04
energy insecurity, energy poverty --
523
1488115
2431
25:06
all of which make us less safe.
524
1490546
3646
25:10
Now our team at RMI helps smart companies
525
1494192
3687
25:13
to get unstuck and speed this journey
526
1497879
3069
25:16
via six sectoral initiatives, with some more hatching.
527
1500948
3062
25:19
Of course there's still a lot of old thinking out there too.
528
1504010
2957
25:22
Former oil man Maurice Strong said,
529
1506967
3177
25:26
"Not all the fossils are in the fuel."
530
1510144
1946
25:27
But as Edgar Woolard, who used to chair Dupont, reminds us,
531
1512090
4305
25:32
"Companies hampered by old thinking won't be a problem
532
1516395
4146
25:36
because," he said," they simply won't be around long-term."
533
1520541
5580
25:42
I've described not just a once-in-a-civilization
534
1526121
2864
25:44
business opportunity,
535
1528985
1607
25:46
but one of the most profound transitions
536
1530592
2423
25:48
in the history of our species.
537
1533015
2516
25:51
We humans are inventing a new fire,
538
1535531
3423
25:54
not dug from below,
539
1538954
1744
25:56
but flowing from above;
540
1540698
2907
25:59
not scarce, but bountiful;
541
1543605
2931
26:02
not local, but everywhere;
542
1546536
1700
26:04
not transient, but permanent;
543
1548236
2631
26:06
not costly, but free.
544
1550867
2900
26:09
And but for a little transitional tail of natural gas
545
1553767
3400
26:13
and a bit of biofuel grown in ways that sustain and endure,
546
1557167
3562
26:16
this new fire is flameless.
547
1560729
3709
26:20
Efficiently used, it really can do our work
548
1564438
4064
26:24
without working our undoing.
549
1568502
2854
26:27
Each of you owns a piece of that $5 trillion prize.
550
1571356
4882
26:32
And our new book "Reinventing Fire"
551
1576238
2254
26:34
describes how you can capture it.
552
1578492
2385
26:36
So with the conversation just begun
553
1580877
2269
26:39
at ReinventingFire.com,
554
1583146
1885
26:40
let me invite you each
555
1585031
2131
26:43
to engage with us and with each other, with everyone around you,
556
1587162
3838
26:46
to help make the world richer, fairer,
557
1591000
2792
26:49
cooler and safer
558
1593792
2608
26:52
by together reinventing fire.
559
1596400
2808
26:55
Thank you.
560
1599208
1859
26:56
(Applause)
561
1601067
1400
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Amory Lovins - Physicist, energy guruIn his new book, "Reinventing Fire," Amory Lovins shares ingenious ideas for the next era of energy.
Why you should listen
Amory Lovins was worried (and writing) about energy long before global warming was making the front -- or even back -- page of newspapers. Since studying at Harvard and Oxford in the 1960s, he's written dozens of books, and initiated ambitious projects -- cofounding the influential, environment-focused Rocky Mountain Institute; prototyping the ultra-efficient Hypercar -- to focus the world's attention on alternative approaches to energy and transportation.
His critical thinking has driven people around the globe -- from world leaders to the average Joe -- to think differently about energy and its role in some of our biggest problems: climate change, oil dependency, national security, economic health, and depletion of natural resources.
Lovins offers solutions as well. His new book and site, Reinventing Fire, offers actionable solutions for four energy-intensive sectors of the economy: transportation, buildings, industry and electricity. Lovins has always focused on solutions that conserve natural resources while also promoting economic growth; Texas Instruments and Wal-Mart are just two of the mega-corporations he has advised on improving energy efficiency.
Amory Lovins | Speaker | TED.com