TED2017
Lauren Sallan: How to win at evolution and survive a mass extinction
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Congratulations! By being here, alive, you are one of history's winners -- the culmination of a success story four billion years in the making. The other 99 percent of species who have ever lived on earth are dead -- killed by fire, flood, asteroids, ice, heat and the cold math of natural selection. How did we get so lucky, and will we continue to win? In this short, funny talk, paleobiologist and TED Fellow Lauren Sallan shares insights on how your ancestors' survival through mass extinction made you who you are today.
Lauren Sallan - Paleobiologist
TED Fellow Lauren Sallan is a paleobiologist using big data analytics to reveal how macroevolution, or evolution happens at the largest scales, happens. Full bio
TED Fellow Lauren Sallan is a paleobiologist using big data analytics to reveal how macroevolution, or evolution happens at the largest scales, happens. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
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Congratulations.
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By being here,
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listening, alive,
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a member of a growing species,
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you are one of history's
greatest winners --
greatest winners --
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the culmination of a success story
four billion years in the making.
four billion years in the making.
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You are life's one percent.
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The losers,
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the 99 percent of species
who have ever lived,
who have ever lived,
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are dead --
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killed by fire, flood, asteroids,
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predation, starvation, ice, heat
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and the cold math of natural selection.
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Your ancestors,
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back to the earliest fishes,
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overcame all these challenges.
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You are here because
of golden opportunities
of golden opportunities
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made possible by mass extinction.
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(Laughter)
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It's true.
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The same is true
of your co-winners and relatives.
of your co-winners and relatives.
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The 34,000 kinds of fishes.
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How did we all get so lucky?
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Will we continue to win?
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I am a fish paleobiologist
who uses big data --
who uses big data --
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the fossil record --
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to study how some species win
and others lose.
and others lose.
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The living can't tell us;
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they know nothing but winning.
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So, we must speak with the dead.
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How do we make dead fishes talk?
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Museums contain multitudes
of beautiful fish fossils,
of beautiful fish fossils,
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but their real beauty emerges
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when combined with the larger
number of ugly, broken fossils,
number of ugly, broken fossils,
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and reduced to ones and zeros.
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I can trawl a 500-million-year database
for evolutionary patterns.
for evolutionary patterns.
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For example,
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fish forms can be captured by coordinates
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and transformed to reveal
major pathways of change
major pathways of change
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and trends through time.
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Here is the story
of the winners and losers
of the winners and losers
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of just one pivotal event
I discovered using fossil data.
I discovered using fossil data.
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Let's travel back 360 million years --
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six times as long ago
as the last dinosaur --
as the last dinosaur --
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to the Devonian period;
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a strange world.
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Armored predators
with razor-edge jaws dominated
with razor-edge jaws dominated
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alongside huge fishes
with arm bones in their fins.
with arm bones in their fins.
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Crab-like fishes scuttled
across the sea floor.
across the sea floor.
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The few ray-fin relatives
of salmon and tuna
of salmon and tuna
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cowered at the bottom of the food chain.
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The few early sharks
lived offshore in fear.
lived offshore in fear.
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Your few four-legged ancestors,
the tetrapods,
the tetrapods,
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struggled in tropical river plains.
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Ecosystems were crowded.
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There was no escape,
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no opportunity in sight.
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Then the world ended.
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(Laughter)
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No, it is a good thing.
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96 percent of all fish species died
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during the Hangenberg event,
359 million years ago:
359 million years ago:
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an interval of fire and ice.
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A crowded world was disrupted
and swept away.
and swept away.
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Now, you might think
that's the end of the story.
that's the end of the story.
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The mighty fell,
the meek inherited the earth,
the meek inherited the earth,
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and here we are.
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But winning is not that simple.
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The handful of survivors
came from many groups --
came from many groups --
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all greatly outnumbered by their own dead.
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They ranged from top predator
to bottom-feeder,
to bottom-feeder,
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big to small,
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marine to freshwater.
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The extinction was a filter.
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It merely leveled the playing field.
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What really counted was what survivors did
over the next several million years
over the next several million years
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in that devastated world.
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The former overlords
should have had an advantage.
should have had an advantage.
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They became even larger,
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storing energy,
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investing in their young,
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spreading across the globe,
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feasting on fishes,
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keeping what had always worked,
and biding their time.
and biding their time.
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Yet they merely persisted for a while,
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declining without innovating,
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becoming living fossils.
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They were too stuck in their ways
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and are now largely forgotten.
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A few of the long-suffering ray-fins,
sharks and four-legged tetrapods
sharks and four-legged tetrapods
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went the opposite direction.
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They became smaller --
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living fast,
dying young,
dying young,
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eating little
and reproducing rapidly.
and reproducing rapidly.
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They tried new foods,
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different homes,
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strange heads
and weird bodies.
and weird bodies.
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(Laughter)
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And they found opportunity, proliferated,
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and won the future
for their 60,000 living species,
for their 60,000 living species,
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including you.
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That's why they look familiar.
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You know their names.
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Winning is not about random events
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or an arms race.
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Rather, survivors went down alternative,
evolutionary pathways.
evolutionary pathways.
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Some found incredible success,
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while others became dead fish walking.
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(Laughter)
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A real scientific term.
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(Laughter)
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I am now investigating
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how these pathways to victory and defeat
repeat across time.
repeat across time.
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My lab has already compiled thousands
upon thousands of dead fishes,
upon thousands of dead fishes,
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but many more remain.
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However, it is already clear
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that your ancestors' survival
through mass extinction,
through mass extinction,
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and their responses in the aftermath
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made you who you are today.
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What does this tell us for the future?
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As long as a handful of species survive,
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life will recover.
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The versatile and the lucky
will not just replace what was lost,
will not just replace what was lost,
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but win in new forms.
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It just might take several million years.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Lauren Sallan - PaleobiologistTED Fellow Lauren Sallan is a paleobiologist using big data analytics to reveal how macroevolution, or evolution happens at the largest scales, happens.
Why you should listen
Lauren Sallan uses the vast fossil record of fishes as a deep time database, mining to find out why some species persist and diversify while others die off. She has used these methods to discover the lost, largest, "sixth" mass extinction of vertebrates; the end-Devonian Hangenberg event (359 million years ago), reveal how fish heads changed first during their rise to dominance; test why some species thrive after global disruptions while others flounder; and show how invasions by new predators can shift prey diversity at global scales.
Sallan is the Martin Meyerson Assistant Professor in Interdisciplinary Studies at the University of Pennsylvania, based in the Department Earth and Environmental Science, and became a TED Fellow in 2017. Her research has been published in Science, PNAS and Current Biology. It has also been featured in the New York Times, The Chicago Tribune, Forbes, the New Scientist, the Discovery Channel and the recent popular science book, The Ends of the World by Peter Brannen.
Lauren Sallan | Speaker | TED.com