TED2017
Lauren Sallan: How to win at evolution and survive a mass extinction
劳伦 · 萨兰: 如何在进化过程中胜出，并在生物大灭绝中幸存
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恭喜大家！你们是活着来到这里的历史幸运儿——也是40亿年来进化过程的顶峰。有99%的物种没有活着看到这一天——它们不是死于火灾，洪水，小行星碰撞，就是灭绝于极热以及自然选择冷酷无情的法则。我们人类怎么会如此幸运，以后也会如此幸运吗？ 在这个简短却有趣的演讲里，古生物学家，TED研究员劳伦 · 萨兰和大家分享了她的研究发现，讲述我们的祖先们如何挺过了生物大灭绝，并造就了今日的我们。
Lauren Sallan - Paleobiologist
TED Fellow Lauren Sallan is a paleobiologist using big data analytics to reveal how macroevolution, or evolution happens at the largest scales, happens. Full bio
TED Fellow Lauren Sallan is a paleobiologist using big data analytics to reveal how macroevolution, or evolution happens at the largest scales, happens. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Congratulations.
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恭喜大家！
00:14
By being here,
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能够来到这里，
活着听演讲，
00:15
listening, alive,
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00:17
a member of a growing species,
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作为一个不断壮大的物种中的一员，
00:19
you are one of history's
greatest winners --
greatest winners --
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你们是进化史上的大赢家——
00:22
the culmination of a success story
four billion years in the making.
four billion years in the making.
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达到了40亿年物种进化的顶峰。
00:27
You are life's one percent.
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你们占了物种的1%。
00:30
The losers,
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而那些没能来到这里的失败者，
00:32
the 99 percent of species
who have ever lived,
who have ever lived,
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那些曾经活着的99%，
00:34
are dead --
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已经死了——
不是死于火灾，水灾，小行星撞击，
00:36
killed by fire, flood, asteroids,
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被捕食，就是死于饥寒交迫和高温，
00:39
predation, starvation, ice, heat
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或被物竞天择这一冷酷无情的法则淘汰。
00:41
and the cold math of natural selection.
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00:45
Your ancestors,
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而你们的祖先，
也就是那些早期的鱼类，
00:46
back to the earliest fishes,
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克服了种种困难存活了下来。
00:47
overcame all these challenges.
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00:50
You are here because
of golden opportunities
of golden opportunities
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你们今天来到这里实属难得，
而这要归因于物种大灭绝。
00:53
made possible by mass extinction.
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00:57
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:01
It's true.
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千真万确。
这包括你们那些活下来的同伴和亲戚，
01:02
The same is true
of your co-winners and relatives.
of your co-winners and relatives.
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01:05
The 34,000 kinds of fishes.
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也就是其它34000 种鱼类。
01:08
How did we all get so lucky?
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为何我们如此幸运？
这种幸运会持续多久？
01:10
Will we continue to win?
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01:13
I am a fish paleobiologist
who uses big data --
who uses big data --
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我是一个鱼类古生物学家，
我通过大数据 ——
我通过大数据 ——
也就是化石记录——
01:17
the fossil record --
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研究物种存活或灭绝的原因。
01:18
to study how some species win
and others lose.
and others lose.
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01:22
The living can't tell us;
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那些活着的鱼什么也不能告诉我们，
它们除了活着，什么也不知道。
01:23
they know nothing but winning.
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01:25
So, we must speak with the dead.
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所以，我们必须要从那些
死去的物种身上找答案。
死去的物种身上找答案。
01:27
How do we make dead fishes talk?
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但我们如何使死鱼说话呢？
01:30
Museums contain multitudes
of beautiful fish fossils,
of beautiful fish fossils,
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博物馆里存放着大量美丽的鱼化石，
但将它们和更多难看而又支离破碎的
01:34
but their real beauty emerges
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01:36
when combined with the larger
number of ugly, broken fossils,
number of ugly, broken fossils,
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鱼化石相结合，并且被分为
有意义和无意义两个类别后，
有意义和无意义两个类别后，
它们真正的价值才显现出来。
01:40
and reduced to ones and zeros.
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01:43
I can trawl a 500-million-year database
for evolutionary patterns.
for evolutionary patterns.
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我可以从一个记录着五亿年进化史的
数据库里，打捞出进化模式。
数据库里，打捞出进化模式。
01:48
For example,
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比如：
将鱼的形状进行归类，
01:49
fish forms can be captured by coordinates
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01:53
and transformed to reveal
major pathways of change
major pathways of change
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然后重组，就能够揭示跨越时空的
01:57
and trends through time.
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主要进化途径和规律。
02:00
Here is the story
of the winners and losers
of the winners and losers
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化石数据显示，优胜劣汰的故事
02:02
of just one pivotal event
I discovered using fossil data.
I discovered using fossil data.
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和一个生死攸关的事件有关。
02:07
Let's travel back 360 million years --
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让我们穿越回3.6亿年前——
也就是距最后的恐龙灭绝的时间
再往前推大约六倍的时间，
再往前推大约六倍的时间，
02:11
six times as long ago
as the last dinosaur --
as the last dinosaur --
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即古生代，
02:15
to the Devonian period;
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那是一个奇异的世界。
02:17
a strange world.
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02:19
Armored predators
with razor-edge jaws dominated
with razor-edge jaws dominated
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有着利刃般下颚的身披盔甲的
捕食动物是主宰者，
捕食动物是主宰者，
与它们共存的是那些
鱼翅中长着臂骨的巨型鱼。
鱼翅中长着臂骨的巨型鱼。
02:23
alongside huge fishes
with arm bones in their fins.
with arm bones in their fins.
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02:29
Crab-like fishes scuttled
across the sea floor.
across the sea floor.
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这些鱼如同螃蟹一样在海底穿行。
02:33
The few ray-fin relatives
of salmon and tuna
of salmon and tuna
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而三文鱼金枪鱼的几个亲戚，
那些鳍刺鱼类，
那些鳍刺鱼类，
则蜷缩在食物链的底层。
02:36
cowered at the bottom of the food chain.
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02:40
The few early sharks
lived offshore in fear.
lived offshore in fear.
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几种早期的鲨鱼为了求生
栖居在近海区域。
栖居在近海区域。
02:44
Your few four-legged ancestors,
the tetrapods,
the tetrapods,
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而你们少数四条腿的祖先，那些四足动物，
02:48
struggled in tropical river plains.
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在热带河流平原勉强度日。
02:52
Ecosystems were crowded.
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生态系统拥挤不堪，
02:54
There was no escape,
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逃无可逃，
生机渺茫。
02:56
no opportunity in sight.
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02:59
Then the world ended.
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然后就是世界末日。
03:00
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
别误会，这可是件好事。
03:02
No, it is a good thing.
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96%的鱼类
03:04
96 percent of all fish species died
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03:08
during the Hangenberg event,
359 million years ago:
359 million years ago:
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死于3.59亿年前的泥盆纪末生物大灭绝：
那真是一个冰与火的轮回炼狱。
03:13
an interval of fire and ice.
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03:15
A crowded world was disrupted
and swept away.
and swept away.
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从前拥挤不堪的世界格局被打破并抹平了。
03:19
Now, you might think
that's the end of the story.
that's the end of the story.
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现在，你也许认为故事就这么结束了。
大家伙倒台，小生物逆袭，
03:22
The mighty fell,
the meek inherited the earth,
the meek inherited the earth,
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03:24
and here we are.
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于是就有了我们。
03:26
But winning is not that simple.
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但是胜出并没有那么易如反掌。
03:30
The handful of survivors
came from many groups --
came from many groups --
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那些为数不多幸存下来的不同物种——
03:33
all greatly outnumbered by their own dead.
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相较于那些死去的同类，数量少得可怜。
03:36
They ranged from top predator
to bottom-feeder,
to bottom-feeder,
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可以将它们从强到弱，
03:39
big to small,
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由大到小，
03:40
marine to freshwater.
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由海洋生物到淡水生物排列来开。
03:42
The extinction was a filter.
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物种大灭绝是一种过滤。
03:44
It merely leveled the playing field.
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但仅仅是扫平了战场而已。
03:47
What really counted was what survivors did
over the next several million years
over the next several million years
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而真正起作用的是那些幸存者
在接下来几亿年光阴的所作所为，
在接下来几亿年光阴的所作所为，
03:52
in that devastated world.
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末日后的世界，一片狼藉。
03:56
The former overlords
should have had an advantage.
should have had an advantage.
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从前的大家伙因为有着先天优势，
03:59
They became even larger,
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从而变得更巨大，
04:01
storing energy,
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储蓄能量，
04:02
investing in their young,
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并传递给后代，
它们的群体渐渐遍布整个地球，
04:04
spreading across the globe,
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以鱼类为食，
04:05
feasting on fishes,
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保留曾经起作用的机能，
并等待它们的时机。
并等待它们的时机。
04:07
keeping what had always worked,
and biding their time.
and biding their time.
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04:10
Yet they merely persisted for a while,
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但它们并没有兴旺多久，
因为没有进化，数量越来越少，
04:13
declining without innovating,
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04:16
becoming living fossils.
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直至成为活化石。
04:18
They were too stuck in their ways
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它们困于自身的局限性里，
04:20
and are now largely forgotten.
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直至今日，几乎被遗忘。
04:24
A few of the long-suffering ray-fins,
sharks and four-legged tetrapods
sharks and four-legged tetrapods
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一些耐得住考验的鳍刺鱼类，
鲨鱼，和四腿生物的命运
鲨鱼，和四腿生物的命运
却与那些大家伙背道而驰。
04:29
went the opposite direction.
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04:31
They became smaller --
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它们体型变得更小——
04:33
living fast,
dying young,
dying young,
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长得快，死的早，
04:35
eating little
and reproducing rapidly.
and reproducing rapidly.
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吃得少，繁殖快。
04:37
They tried new foods,
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它们尝试新食物，
新环境，
04:39
different homes,
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长得奇形怪状。
04:40
strange heads
and weird bodies.
and weird bodies.
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04:43
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
04:44
And they found opportunity, proliferated,
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然后它们找到了机会，繁衍生息，
04:47
and won the future
for their 60,000 living species,
for their 60,000 living species,
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并为6万活着的物种赢得了将来，
04:51
including you.
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包括你们。
这就是为何它们看起来如此面熟。
04:52
That's why they look familiar.
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04:54
You know their names.
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你知道它们的名字。
04:57
Winning is not about random events
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胜出不是偶尔事件，
或体能竞赛。
05:00
or an arms race.
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相反，是因为幸存者选择了
不同的进化途径。
不同的进化途径。
05:01
Rather, survivors went down alternative,
evolutionary pathways.
evolutionary pathways.
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05:06
Some found incredible success,
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有的令人难以置信的成功了，
05:08
while others became dead fish walking.
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而有的虽生犹死。
05:12
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
05:14
A real scientific term.
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这是真正的科学术语。
05:16
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
现在，我在研究
05:18
I am now investigating
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05:19
how these pathways to victory and defeat
repeat across time.
repeat across time.
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这些胜败之路是如何
在时间的长河里重复上演的。
在时间的长河里重复上演的。
05:24
My lab has already compiled thousands
upon thousands of dead fishes,
upon thousands of dead fishes,
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我的实验室里堆满了数以万计的鱼骸，
05:28
but many more remain.
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而且还会有所增加。
然而，目前很清楚的是，
05:29
However, it is already clear
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05:31
that your ancestors' survival
through mass extinction,
through mass extinction,
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你们的祖先从生物大灭绝中死里逃生，
而它们在劫后余生的反应，
05:35
and their responses in the aftermath
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05:37
made you who you are today.
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造就了今日的你们。
05:40
What does this tell us for the future?
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这些对未来有什么启示呢？
05:42
As long as a handful of species survive,
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那就是，只要有为数不多的物种存活，
05:45
life will recover.
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生命就会繁衍不息。
05:47
The versatile and the lucky
will not just replace what was lost,
will not just replace what was lost,
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那些幸运、适应力又强的家伙
不但会取代已经没落的物种，
不但会取代已经没落的物种，
05:51
but win in new forms.
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而且会以新的形态胜出。
05:53
It just might take several million years.
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只不过，这要花上几百万年。
05:56
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
（掌声）
05:57
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Lauren Sallan - PaleobiologistTED Fellow Lauren Sallan is a paleobiologist using big data analytics to reveal how macroevolution, or evolution happens at the largest scales, happens.
Why you should listen
Lauren Sallan uses the vast fossil record of fishes as a deep time database, mining to find out why some species persist and diversify while others die off. She has used these methods to discover the lost, largest, "sixth" mass extinction of vertebrates; the end-Devonian Hangenberg event (359 million years ago), reveal how fish heads changed first during their rise to dominance; test why some species thrive after global disruptions while others flounder; and show how invasions by new predators can shift prey diversity at global scales.
Sallan is the Martin Meyerson Assistant Professor in Interdisciplinary Studies at the University of Pennsylvania, based in the Department Earth and Environmental Science, and became a TED Fellow in 2017. Her research has been published in Science, PNAS and Current Biology. It has also been featured in the New York Times, The Chicago Tribune, Forbes, the New Scientist, the Discovery Channel and the recent popular science book, The Ends of the World by Peter Brannen.
Lauren Sallan | Speaker | TED.com