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TEDGlobal 2011

Geoffrey West: The surprising math of cities and corporations

Geoffrey West: Hirien eta korporazioen matematika harrigarriak

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Geoffrey West-ek fisikariak asmatu egin ditu matematika-lege erraz batzuek hirien ezaugarriak agintzen dituztela. Aberastasunak, kriminalitateak, mugikortasunak eta hiri baten beste ezaugarri batzuk zenbaki bakar batetik ondoriozta daitezke: populaziotik. TEDGlobal-eko ikaragarrizko hitzaldi honetan, West-ek erakusten du hau nola funtzionatu eta aplikatu erakundeetara eta korporazioetara.

- Theorist
Physicist Geoffrey West believes that complex systems from organisms to cities are in many ways governed by simple laws -- laws that can be discovered and analyzed. Full bio

Cities are the crucible of civilization.
Hiriak zibilizazioen arragoak dira.
00:16
They have been expanding,
Handitu egin dira,
00:19
urbanization has been expanding,
urbanizazioak hedatu egin ditu,
00:21
at an exponential rate in the last 200 years
tasa esponentzial batera azkenengo 200 urteetan,
00:23
so that by the second part of this century,
honela, mende honetako bigarren zatian
00:25
the planet will be completely dominated
hiriek zeharo nagusitu zuten
00:28
by cities.
Lurra.
00:30
Cities are the origins of global warming,
Hirietan mundu mailako berotzea, besteak beste, sortzen dira,
00:33
impact on the environment,
kutsadura, gaixotasunak,
00:36
health, pollution, disease,
ingurumen-inpaktua,
00:38
finance,
finantzak,
00:41
economies, energy --
ekonomia, energia ....
00:43
they're all problems
Arazo guzti hauek
00:46
that are confronted by having cities.
hirien izateak sortuak dira
00:48
That's where all these problems come from.
Hortik dator dena.
00:50
And the tsunami of problems that we feel we're facing
Aurre egiten dugun arazo-mordoa
00:52
in terms of sustainability questions
iraunkortasuna dela eta
00:55
are actually a reflection
(honen) isla da
00:57
of the exponential increase
urbanizazioaren hazkunde
00:59
in urbanization across the planet.
esponentzialarena, mundu osoan zehar.
01:01
Here's some numbers.
Hona hemen datu batzuk
01:04
Two hundred years ago, the United States
Orain dela 200 urte, Estatu Batuetan
01:06
was less than a few percent urbanized.
ehuneko txiki bat soilik hiritartu zen.
01:08
It's now more than 82 percent.
Orain %82a hiritartuta dago.
01:10
The planet has crossed the halfway mark a few years ago.
Lurrak orain dela urte batzuk lerroa gurutzatu egin du.
01:12
China's building 300 new cities
Txinak 300 hiri berrik eraikiko ditu.
01:15
in the next 20 years.
hurrengo 20 urteetan.
01:17
Now listen to this:
Adi egon:
01:19
Every week for the foreseeable future,
astero, aurreikus daitekeen geroan
01:21
until 2050,
2050 urte arte,
01:24
every week more than a million people
astero, milioi bat pertsona baino gehiago
01:26
are being added to our cities.
gure hirietara gehituko dira.
01:28
This is going to affect everything.
Honek guztioi eragingo digu.
01:30
Everybody in this room, if you stay alive,
Aretoan dauden guztiei, bizirik badaude,
01:32
is going to be affected
eragingo die
01:34
by what's happening in cities
hirietan gertatutakoak
01:36
in this extraordinary phenomenon.
gertakari harrigarriarekin.
01:38
However, cities,
Haatik, hiriek,
01:40
despite having this negative aspect to them,
ezezko itxurak izan arren,
01:43
are also the solution.
irtenbideak ere badauzkate.
01:46
Because cities are the vacuum cleaners and the magnets
xurgagailuak eta imanak direlako
01:48
that have sucked up creative people,
(hiriek) sortzaileak erakartzen dituzte
01:52
creating ideas, innovation,
ideiak, berrikuntzak sortzeko,
01:54
wealth and so on.
aberastasuna eta abar.
01:56
So we have this kind of dual nature.
(Hiriek) natura dual dute.
01:58
And so there's an urgent need
Badago premiazko beharra
02:00
for a scientific theory of cities.
hirien teoria zientifikoa sortzeko (beharra)
02:03
Now these are my comrades in arms.
Hauexek dira nire gudakideak.
02:07
This work has been done with an extraordinary group of people,
Pertsona harrigarrien talde batekin egin dugu lana,
02:10
and they've done all the work,
hauek lan osoa egin dute;
02:12
and I'm the great bullshitter
neu naiz harroputza
02:14
that tries to bring it all together.
dena biltzen dituenak.
02:16
(Laughter)
(Algarak)
02:18
So here's the problem: This is what we all want.
Hona hemen arazoa; hau da guztiok nahi duguna.
02:20
The 10 billion people on the planet in 2050
2050. urteko lurraren 10.000 milioi pertsonek
02:22
want to live in places like this,
hau bezalako lekuetan bizi nahi dute,
02:25
having things like this,
hauek bezalako gauzekin,
02:27
doing things like this,
hauek bezalako gauzak egiten,
02:29
with economies that are growing like this,
hau bezala handituz doan ekonomiarekin,
02:31
not realizing that entropy
(haiek) konturatu gabe entropiak berak
02:34
produces things like this,
hau bezalako gauzak sortzen dituela,
02:36
this, this
hau bezalakoak
02:38
and this.
eta hau bezalakoa.
02:42
And the question is:
Eta gure buruari galdetzen diogu
02:44
Is that what Edinburgh and London and New York
Edimburgo, Londres eta New York
02:46
are going to look like in 2050,
horrela ikusiko dira 2050. urtean?
02:48
or is it going to be this?
edo, horrela?
02:50
That's the question.
Hori da gakoa.
02:52
I must say, many of the indicators
Nik uste dut, adierazle batzuen arabera,
02:54
look like this is what it's going to look like,
horrela ikusiko direla.
02:56
but let's talk about it.
Hortaz hitz egin dezagun.
02:59
So my provocative statement
Adierazi behar dut
03:02
is that we desperately need a serious scientific theory of cities.
hirien premiazko teoria zientifiko bat behar dugula.
03:05
And scientific theory means quantifiable --
Teoria zientifikoak esan nahi du neurgarria izatea,
03:08
relying on underlying generic principles
printzipio orokorren azpikoren mendekoa dena
03:11
that can be made into a predictive framework.
eta predikzioak egiten laguntzen diguna.
03:14
That's the quest.
Hori da gakoa.
03:16
Is that conceivable?
Posible ote da?
03:18
Are there universal laws?
Mundu-mailako legeak badaude?
03:20
So here's two questions
Bi galderak daude
03:22
that I have in my head when I think about this problem.
burura datozkidanak horretaz pentsatzen dudan bakoitzean.
03:24
The first is:
Lehenengoa da:
03:26
Are cities part of biology?
Hiriak biologiaren zatiak al dira?
03:28
Is London a great big whale?
Londres balea handia izango ote da?
03:30
Is Edinburgh a horse?
Edimburgo zaldia izango ote da?
03:32
Is Microsoft a great big anthill?
Microsoft izugarrizko inurritegia izango ote da?
03:34
What do we learn from that?
Zer ondorioztatzen da hortik?
03:36
We use them metaphorically --
Modu metaforikoan hitz egiten,
03:38
the DNA of a company, the metabolism of a city, and so on --
Enpresa baten DNA, hiri baten metabolismoa eta hau dena,
03:40
is that just bullshit, metaphorical bullshit,
hitzontzikeri metaforikoak besterik ez dira?
03:42
or is there serious substance to it?
edo seriotan har daitezke?
03:45
And if that is the case,
Eta horrela bada,
03:48
how come that it's very hard to kill a city?
zergatik hain zaila den hiri bat akabatzea?
03:50
You could drop an atom bomb on a city,
Lehergailu atomikoa bota ahalko diote
03:52
and 30 years later it's surviving.
eta 30 urte barru jarraituko du bizirik.
03:54
Very few cities fail.
Oso hiri gutxik porrot egiten dute.
03:56
All companies die, all companies.
Enpresa guztiek porrot egiten dute.
03:59
And if you have a serious theory, you should be able to predict
Teoria on batekin aurretik jakin liteke
04:02
when Google is going to go bust.
noiz porrot egingo duen Google-k
04:04
So is that just another version
Hori beste bertsio bat izango da
04:07
of this?
honekoa?
04:10
Well we understand this very well.
Hau oso ondo ulertzen da.
04:12
That is, you ask any generic question about this --
Hots, galdera generikoak egiten baditut horretaz:
04:14
how many trees of a given size,
zenbat arbola tamainaren arabera?
04:16
how many branches of a given size does a tree have,
zenbat halako tamaniako adarrak ditu arbola batek?
04:18
how many leaves,
zenbat hosto?
04:20
what is the energy flowing through each branch,
zenbat energiak zeharkatzen du adar bakoitza?
04:22
what is the size of the canopy,
zer tamaina du bere hosto-kapak?
04:24
what is its growth, what is its mortality?
zein da bere hazkundea? zein da heriotza-tasa?
04:26
We have a mathematical framework
Eskema matematikoa daukagu
04:28
based on generic universal principles
mundu-mailako printzipio generikoetan oinarrituta
04:30
that can answer those questions.
galdera guzti horiek konpontzeko.
04:33
And the idea is can we do the same for this?
Ideia da: honekin gauza bera egin dezakegu?
04:35
So the route in is recognizing
Onarpenarekin lortzen da
04:40
one of the most extraordinary things about life,
bizitzaren gauza harrigarrienetariko batena;
04:43
is that it is scalable,
hots, bere eskalarekin bat datorrela
04:45
it works over an extraordinary range.
oso tarte zabal batean.
04:47
This is just a tiny range actually:
Hau oso aplikazio murriztua da, benetan;
04:49
It's us mammals;
hauexek gara gu, ugaztunok,
04:51
we're one of these.
talde honen parte hartzen dugunok.
04:53
The same principles, the same dynamics,
Printzipio berberak, dinamika berbera,
04:55
the same organization is at work
antolaketa berberak funtzionatzen du
04:57
in all of these, including us,
ugaztun guztietan, gu barne
04:59
and it can scale over a range of 100 million in size.
eta 100 milioi aldiz handitu daiteke.
05:01
And that is one of the main reasons
Hau da arrazoi inportantenetariko bat adierazteko
05:04
life is so resilient and robust --
zeren izaki bizidunak hain gogorrak eta erresilienteak diren,
05:07
scalability.
eskalarekin bat etortzeagatik.
05:09
We're going to discuss that in a moment more.
Berehala horretaz hitz egingo dugu.
05:11
But you know, at a local level,
Jakin badakigu bertako mailan
05:14
you scale; everybody in this room is scaled.
dena handitu daitekeela: gela honetako guztiok eskalarekin bat gatoz.
05:16
That's called growth.
Hazkundea deitzen dugu.
05:18
Here's how you grew.
Begira ezazue nola hazi.
05:20
Rat, that's a rat -- could have been you.
Hau arratoia da. Zuetariko bat izan liteke.
05:22
We're all pretty much the same.
Oso berdinak gara.
05:24
And you see, you're very familiar with this.
Ikus dezakegu hau oso ezaguna zaigula.
05:27
You grow very quickly and then you stop.
Izaki bat oso azkar hazten da eta halako batean gelditzen da.
05:29
And that line there
Kurba hori
05:31
is a prediction from the same theory,
predikzio bat da, teori berekoa,
05:33
based on the same principles,
printzipio berdinetan oinarrituta,
05:35
that describes that forest.
baso bat deskribatzen den bezalakoa.
05:37
And here it is for the growth of a rat,
Hau arratoi baten hazkunde-kurba da.
05:39
and those points on there are data points.
Puntuek datu errealak azpimarratzen dituzte.
05:41
This is just the weight versus the age.
Horrek erakusten du pisua adinaren arabera.
05:43
And you see, it stops growing.
Ikus ezazue nola hazkundea gelditzen den.
05:45
Very, very good for biology --
Oso ona biologiarako,
05:47
also one of the reasons for its great resilience.
bere erresilientzia handiaren arrazoi inportantenetariko bat dela.
05:49
Very, very bad
Baina oso txarto
05:51
for economies and companies and cities
ekonomiarako, enpresetarako eta hirietarako
05:53
in our present paradigm.
gaur egungo ereduan.
05:55
This is what we believe.
Hori da guk uste duguna.
05:57
This is what our whole economy
Hau da ekonomia guztiek
05:59
is thrusting upon us,
egitera behartzen gaituzten,
06:01
particularly illustrated in that left-hand corner:
ezkerrako bazterrean ikus daitekenez,
06:03
hockey sticks.
hockey-makilak bezalakoak.
06:06
This is a bunch of software companies --
Hau da programazio informatikoen konpaniei buruz
06:08
and what it is is their revenue versus their age --
diru-sarrerak ikusten dira adinaren arabera,
06:10
all zooming away,
oso azkar aurreratzen dira
06:12
and everybody making millions and billions of dollars.
eta guztiek milioika dolar irabazten dituzte.
06:14
Okay, so how do we understand this?
Aizue, nola ulertzen da hau guztia?
06:16
So let's first talk about biology.
Lehenengo eta behin, biologiari buruz hitz egin dezagun.
06:19
This is explicitly showing you
Horrek argi eta garbi erakusten du,
06:22
how things scale,
gauzen eskala nola aldatzen den.
06:24
and this is a truly remarkable graph.
Oso grafika zinez aipagarria.
06:26
What is plotted here is metabolic rate --
Hemen ikusten duguna tasa-metabolikoa da,
06:28
how much energy you need per day to stay alive --
zenbat energia behar den egun batean bizirik eusteko,
06:31
versus your weight, your mass,
pisu edo masaren arabera,
06:34
for all of us bunch of organisms.
gu bezalako izaki bizidunentzat.
06:36
And it's plotted in this funny way by going up by factors of 10,
Oso forma arraroa du, hamarreko faktorean handituz;
06:39
otherwise you couldn't get everything on the graph.
horrela ez balitz, grafikan ez litzateke sartuko.
06:42
And what you see if you plot it
Hau egitean ikusten dena,
06:44
in this slightly curious way
forma bitxi horrekin, zera da,
06:46
is that everybody lies on the same line.
guztiak lerro berean sartzen direla.
06:48
Despite the fact that this is the most complex and diverse system
Sistema hau konplexuena eta diferenteena izan arren
06:51
in the universe,
Unibertso osoan,
06:54
there's an extraordinary simplicity
guztiz erraza da
06:57
being expressed by this.
horrela azaltzean.
06:59
It's particularly astonishing
Guztiz harrigarria da
07:01
because each one of these organisms,
organismo hauetako bakoitzak
07:04
each subsystem, each cell type, each gene,
sistema-azpiko bakoitzak, zelula-mota bakoitzak, gen bakoitzak,
07:06
has evolved in its own unique environmental niche
euren txoko ekologiko eboluzionatu du,
07:08
with its own unique history.
euren istoria bakarreko propioarekin,
07:12
And yet, despite all of that Darwinian evolution
Eta, eboluzio osoa suertatu arren
07:15
and natural selection,
eta Darwin-eko hautaketa naturala kontuan hartuta ere bai
07:18
they've been constrained to lie on a line.
guztiak lerro batean kokatu egin dira.
07:20
Something else is going on.
Eta are gehiago.
07:22
Before I talk about that,
Horretaz hitz egin baino lehen,
07:24
I've written down at the bottom there
beheko aldean zerbait gehitu dut,
07:26
the slope of this curve, this straight line.
zuzen honen aldapa.
07:28
It's three-quarters, roughly,
gutxi gorabehera 3/4 da,
07:30
which is less than one -- and we call that sublinear.
1 baino gutxiago. Lineal-azpikoa deitzen dugu.
07:32
And here's the point of that.
Eta horrek esan nahi du:
07:35
It says that, if it were linear,
Lineal izango balitz,
07:37
the steepest slope,
aldapa handiagorekin,
07:40
then doubling the size
bere tamaina bikoiztean
07:42
you would require double the amount of energy.
energia bikoitza behar izango litzateke.
07:44
But it's sublinear, and what that translates into
Baina lineal-azpikoa denez, horrek esan nahi du
07:46
is that, if you double the size of the organism,
organismoaren tamaina bikoizten bada,
07:49
you actually only need 75 percent more energy.
energia gehigarrizko %75a bakarrik behar izango da.
07:51
So a wonderful thing about all of biology
Biologiaren aparteko ezaugarria da
07:54
is that it expresses an extraordinary economy of scale.
eskala-ekonomia harrigarria existitzen dela.
07:56
The bigger you are systematically,
Gero eta sistema handiagoa,
07:59
according to very well-defined rules,
araudien arabera,
08:01
less energy per capita.
unitate bakoitzeko gero eta energia gutxiago.
08:03
Now any physiological variable you can think of,
Aldagai fisiolologikoa imajinagarri batentzat,
08:06
any life history event you can think of,
pentsa dezakegun bizitzaren gertakizun batentzat,
08:09
if you plot it this way, looks like this.
hau bezalako grafika egiten bada, horrela ikusiko da.
08:11
There is an extraordinary regularity.
Harrigarrizko erregulartasuna.
08:14
So you tell me the size of a mammal,
Norbaitek ugaztun baten tamaina esaten badit,
08:16
I can tell you at the 90 percent level everything about it
erantzungo nioke, %90eko zehaztasunarekin, ugaztun horri buruzko informazio osoa
08:18
in terms of its physiology, life history, etc.
bere fisiologiaren eta bizitzaren istorioa, etab.
08:21
And the reason for this is because of networks.
Honen azalpena sareak dira.
08:25
All of life is controlled by networks --
Sareek dena kontrolatzen dute;
08:28
from the intracellular through the multicellular
zelulartekoetatik zelulanitzetara,
08:31
through the ecosystem level.
ekosistemen mailak ere bai.
08:33
And you're very familiar with these networks.
Zuek ondo ezagutzen dituzue sare horiek.
08:35
That's a little thing that lives inside an elephant.
Hau elefante baten barruan bizi den oso gauza txikia da.
08:39
And here's the summary of what I'm saying.
Eta hemen dago nik esandakoaren laburpena.
08:42
If you take those networks,
Sare hauek hartzen baditut,
08:45
this idea of networks,
sareen kontzeptua,
08:47
and you apply universal principles,
eta printzipio batzuk ematen badizkiet
08:49
mathematizable, universal principles,
zenbatuak eta unibertsalak,
08:51
all of these scalings
eskala-aldaketa horiek
08:53
and all of these constraints follow,
eta murrizketa horiek betetzen dira,
08:55
including the description of the forest,
baso baten deskribapena barne,
08:58
the description of your circulatory system,
zirkulazio-sistemakoa
09:00
the description within cells.
edo zelularen barrualdekoa.
09:02
One of the things I did not stress in that introduction
Sarreran azpimarratu ez dudan ideia bat da
09:04
was that, systematically, the pace of life
sistematikoki, bizitzaren erritmoa
09:07
decreases as you get bigger.
moteltzen da izaki bat hazi ahala.
09:10
Heart rates are slower; you live longer;
Bihotzaren taupadak motelago bihurtzen dira zahartzean,
09:12
diffusion of oxygen and resources
oxigenoaren hedatzea
09:15
across membranes is slower, etc.
mintzetatik pasatzen diren errekurtsoak ere motelago bihurtzen dira, etab.
09:17
The question is: Is any of this true
Galdera da: hau egia izango ote da
09:19
for cities and companies?
hirientzat eta enpresentzat?
09:21
So is London a scaled up Birmingham,
Londres Birmingham handitua izango ote da?
09:24
which is a scaled up Brighton, etc., etc.?
Eta hau Brighton-en handitzea izango ote da, etab?
09:27
Is New York a scaled up San Francisco,
New York San Francisco-ren handitzea izango ote da?
09:30
which is a scaled up Santa Fe?
Eta hau Santa Fe-ren handitzea?
09:32
Don't know. We will discuss that.
Ez dakit. Gero aztertu egingo dugu.
09:34
But they are networks,
Baina sareak existitu egiten dira.
09:36
and the most important network of cities
Eta hiri baten sarean garrantzi handiena duena,
09:38
is you.
zuek zarete.
09:40
Cities are just a physical manifestation
Hiriak agerpen fisikoak besterik ez dira
09:42
of your interactions,
hirien elkarrenkintzenak
09:45
our interactions,
eta gureak;
09:47
and the clustering and grouping of individuals.
pilaketak eta izakien elkarteak.
09:49
Here's just a symbolic picture of that.
Hau grafika sinbolikoa da.
09:51
And here's scaling of cities.
Hemen agertzen dira hiri batzuk eskala desberdinetan.
09:54
This shows that in this very simple example,
Adibide arrunt honetan nabaritzen da,
09:56
which happens to be a mundane example
garrantzi txikiko adibidea da;
09:59
of number of petrol stations
gasolindegien zenbakia
10:01
as a function of size --
(hiriaren) tamaniaren arabera,
10:03
plotted in the same way as the biology --
biologiaren antzeko taula batean.
10:05
you see exactly the same kind of thing.
Berdin-berdina ikusten da.
10:07
There is a scaling.
Eskala-efektua badago.
10:09
That is that the number of petrol stations in the city
Hots, gasolindegien kopurua
10:11
is now given to you
lor daiteke
10:15
when you tell me its size.
(hiriaren) tamainaren arabera.
10:17
The slope of that is less than linear.
Aldapa lineala baino gutxiagokoa da.
10:19
There is an economy of scale.
Eskala-ekonomia dago.
10:22
Less petrol stations per capita the bigger you are -- not surprising.
Biztanle bakoitzeko gasolindegi gutxiago, (hiriaren) tamaina handiagoan. Ez da batere harrigarria.
10:24
But here's what's surprising.
Baina badator harrigarriena.
10:27
It scales in the same way everywhere.
Eskala-aldaketa leku guztietan suertatzen da.
10:29
This is just European countries,
Hau da herri europarrentzat,
10:31
but you do it in Japan or China or Colombia,
baina Japonian, Txinan edo Kolonbian,
10:33
always the same
beti berdin,
10:36
with the same kind of economy of scale
eskala-ekonomia berberarekin,
10:38
to the same degree.
maila berberarekin.
10:40
And any infrastructure you look at --
Guk ikasi genituen azpiegitura-mota guztiak,
10:42
whether it's the length of roads, length of electrical lines --
bai errepideen luzera, bai linea elektrikoak,
10:45
anything you look at
edozein gaik,
10:48
has the same economy of scale scaling in the same way.
eskala-ekonomia bera du, beti berdin.
10:50
It's an integrated system
Oso sistema integratua da
10:53
that has evolved despite all the planning and so on.
zeinek eboluzionatu duen, plangintzak egin arren.
10:55
But even more surprising
Baina are harrigarriagoa da
10:58
is if you look at socio-economic quantities,
parametro sozioekonomikoak ikasten direnean,
11:00
quantities that have no analog in biology,
datu horiek ez daukate parekotasunik biologian,
11:02
that have evolved when we started forming communities
(haiek) eboluzionatu egin dira giza-erkidegoak martxan jarri zirenetik
11:05
eight to 10,000 years ago.
orain dela 8.000 edo 10.000 urte.
11:08
The top one is wages as a function of size
Lehenegoa da soldatak tamainaren arabera,
11:10
plotted in the same way.
grafika berean.
11:12
And the bottom one is you lot --
Eta azkena da zuena,
11:14
super-creatives plotted in the same way.
sortzeko ahalmena daukaten pertsonena.
11:16
And what you see
Nabaritzen dena
11:19
is a scaling phenomenon.
eskala-gertakaria da.
11:21
But most important in this,
Hemen inportateena da
11:23
the exponent, the analog to that three-quarters
3/4 antzeko adierazlea
11:25
for the metabolic rate,
tasa metabolikoaren kasuan,
11:27
is bigger than one -- it's about 1.15 to 1.2.
(orain) 1 baino gehiagokoa da; gutxi gora behera 1,15-tik 1,2-ra
11:29
Here it is,
Hemen dago
11:31
which says that the bigger you are
eta gero eta handiagoa denean,
11:33
the more you have per capita, unlike biology --
BPG handiagoa dago, biologia ez bezala,
11:36
higher wages, more super-creative people per capita as you get bigger,
soldata handiagoak, sortzeko ahalmen daukaten pertsona gehiago
11:39
more patents per capita, more crime per capita.
biztanle bakoitzeko patente gehiago, krimen-kopuru gehiago.
11:43
And we've looked at everything:
Den-dena aztertu ditugu:
11:46
more AIDS cases, flu, etc.
HIES-aren kasuak, gripe, etab
11:48
And here, they're all plotted together.
Eta hemen daude grafika bakar batean.
11:51
Just to show you what we plotted,
Hemen hauxe sartu ditugu
11:53
here is income, GDP --
diru-sarrerak, BPG,
11:55
GDP of the city --
hiri baten BPG,
11:58
crime and patents all on one graph.
kriminalitatea, patenteak, den-dena grafika berean.
12:00
And you can see, they all follow the same line.
Eta, ikusten den bezala, datu guztiak lerro berean inguruan.
12:02
And here's the statement.
Hau da adierazpena.
12:04
If you double the size of a city from 100,000 to 200,000,
Hiriaren tamaina bikoiztea, 100.000 biztanleetatik 200.000-etara,
12:06
from a million to two million, 10 to 20 million,
milio batetik 2 milioetara, 10 milioetatik 20 milioietara,
12:09
it doesn't matter,
berdin da,
12:11
then systematically
sistematikoki
12:13
you get a 15 percent increase
handitzearen %15a lortzen da
12:15
in wages, wealth, number of AIDS cases,
soldatetan, aberastasunean, HIESaren kasuetan,
12:17
number of police,
polizien zenbakian,
12:19
anything you can think of.
edonork imajina lezakeena.
12:21
It goes up by 15 percent,
%15-tan gora joaten da.
12:23
and you have a 15 percent savings
Aurreztien %15a ere lortzen da
12:25
on the infrastructure.
azpiegituretan.
12:28
This, no doubt, is the reason
Dudarik gabe hau da arrazoia
12:31
why a million people a week are gathering in cities.
zeren aste bakoitzak hirien populazioa milioi batean hazten diren,
12:34
Because they think that all those wonderful things --
Gauza harrigarri guzti hauek ...
12:37
like creative people, wealth, income --
sortzaileak, aberastasuna, diru-sarrerak,
12:40
is what attracts them,
erakargarriak dira
12:42
forgetting about the ugly and the bad.
eta txarra eta itsusia ahaztuarazten dituzte.
12:44
What is the reason for this?
Eta, zein da arrazoia?
12:46
Well I don't have time to tell you about all the mathematics,
Ez daukat denbora nahikorik termino matematikotan hitz egin dezan,
12:48
but underlying this is the social networks,
baina hau guztien azpitik sare sozialak daude,
12:51
because this is a universal phenomenon.
mundu mailako gertakariak dira.
12:54
This 15 percent rule
%15-en arau hau
12:57
is true
baliogarria da
13:00
no matter where you are on the planet --
lurraren edozein lekutan egon arren
13:02
Japan, Chile,
Japonia, Txile,
13:04
Portugal, Scotland, doesn't matter.
Portugal, Eskozia, berdin da.
13:06
Always, all the data shows it's the same,
Beti, datu guztiek gauza bera erakusten dute,
13:09
despite the fact that these cities have evolved independently.
hiri bakoitzaren eboluzioa kontuan hartu arren.
13:12
Something universal is going on.
Mundu mailako gertakaria gertatzen da.
13:15
The universality, to repeat, is us --
Gu geu unibertsalak gara, berriro esaten dut,
13:17
that we are the city.
gu geu hiria gara.
13:20
And it is our interactions and the clustering of those interactions.
Gure elkarrenkintzak gara, gure elkarrekintzen elkarketak.
13:22
So there it is, I've said it again.
Hemen dago, berriro.
13:25
So if it is those networks and their mathematical structure,
Sare guzti horiek dira eta euren egitura matematikoa.
13:27
unlike biology, which had sublinear scaling,
Alde batetik biologia bere eskala lineal-azpikoekin,
13:30
economies of scale,
bere eskala-ekonomia,
13:33
you had the slowing of the pace of life
eta bizitzaren osoan zeharkako erritmo motelagoa
13:35
as you get bigger.
hazi ahala.
13:37
If it's social networks with super-linear scaling --
Beste aldetik, sare sozialak, euren eskala gain-linealarekin;
13:39
more per capita --
biztanle bakoitzeko kantitate handiagorekin;
13:41
then the theory says
teoriak esaten du
13:43
that you increase the pace of life.
bizi-erritmoa handitzen dela.
13:45
The bigger you are, life gets faster.
Hazkundearekin, bizitza arinago doa.
13:47
On the left is the heart rate showing biology.
Ezkerrean, bihotzeko erritmoa islatzen da.
13:49
On the right is the speed of walking
Eta eskuinean, abiadura ibiltzean
13:51
in a bunch of European cities,
hiri europar batzuetan,
13:53
showing that increase.
eta handipena ikusten da.
13:55
Lastly, I want to talk about growth.
Amaitzeko, hazkundeari buruz hitz egin nahi dut.
13:57
This is what we had in biology, just to repeat.
Berriro esango dut: hau da biologian ikusten dena.
14:00
Economies of scale
Eskala-ekonomiek
14:03
gave rise to this sigmoidal behavior.
S itxurako portaera hori sortzen dute.
14:06
You grow fast and then stop --
Azkar hazten gara eta gero gelditzen gara;
14:09
part of our resilience.
gure erresilientziaren zatia besterik ez da.
14:12
That would be bad for economies and cities.
Hori bai hirientzat, bai ekonomiarentzat txarra izango litzateke.
14:14
And indeed, one of the wonderful things about the theory
Baina teoria honen ezaugarri onenetariko bat da
14:17
is that if you have super-linear scaling
edonork eskala gain-lineala badu
14:19
from wealth creation and innovation,
abarastasunaren sormenarako eta berrikuntzarako,
14:22
then indeed you get, from the same theory,
orduan, teoriaren arabera, lortzen da,
14:24
a beautiful rising exponential curve -- lovely.
goranzko kurba esponentzial ederra, xarmagarria.
14:27
And in fact, if you compare it to data,
Eta datuekin konparatzen bada,
14:29
it fits very well
oso ondo egokitzen da
14:31
with the development of cities and economies.
hirien eta ekonomiaren garapenarekin.
14:33
But it has a terrible catch,
Baina arazo bat dago,
14:35
and the catch
hau da
14:37
is that this system is destined to collapse.
sistema kolapsatzear dagoela.
14:39
And it's destined to collapse for many reasons --
Eta hori arrazoi askorengatik gertatzen da;
14:42
kind of Malthusian reasons -- that you run out of resources.
Malthus antzekoak; hots, baliabideak agortuko dira.
14:44
And how do you avoid that? Well we've done it before.
Eta nola saihes daiteke? Beno, iraganaldian egin da.
14:47
What we do is,
Egin dena da
14:50
as we grow and we approach the collapse,
hazi eta kolapsora hurbildu ahala,
14:52
a major innovation takes place
garrantzitsuzko berrikuntza agertzen da
14:55
and we start over again,
eta berriro hasiko gara.
14:58
and we start over again as we approach the next one, and so on.
Eta hurrengora hurbiltzean, hasi berriro eta bata bestearen segidan.
15:00
So there's this continuous cycle of innovation
Berrikuntzez beteriko segida hau
15:03
that is necessary
beharrezkoa da
15:05
in order to sustain growth and avoid collapse.
hazkundea mantentzeko eta kolapsoa saihesteko.
15:07
The catch, however, to this
Haatik, arazoa da
15:10
is that you have to innovate
berritzea guztiz beharrezkoa dela
15:12
faster and faster and faster.
arinago, gero eta arinago.
15:14
So the image
Irudi bat erabiliz,
15:17
is that we're not only on a treadmill that's going faster,
bizkortzeko makina trostari egon ez ezik,
15:19
but we have to change the treadmill faster and faster.
baita aldatu behar dugu ere gero eta maizago.
15:22
We have to accelerate on a continuous basis.
Bizkortu behar dugu eten gabe.
15:25
And the question is: Can we, as socio-economic beings,
Sekulako galdera da: Posible ote da, izaki sozioekonomikoak izanda,
15:28
avoid a heart attack?
bihotzeko krisia saihestea?
15:31
So lastly, I'm going to finish up in this last minute or two
Amaitzeko, geratzen zaidan pare bat minutu hauetan,
15:34
asking about companies.
enpresei buruz galdetzen dut.
15:37
See companies, they scale.
Enpresak eskalara egokitzen dira.
15:39
The top one, in fact, is Walmart on the right.
Enpresa hau, ondo ezagututa, Walmart da.
15:41
It's the same plot.
Grafika berak
15:43
This happens to be income and assets
diru-sarrerak eta aktiboa erakusten ditu
15:45
versus the size of the company as denoted by its number of employees.
konpainiaren tamainaren arabera, langile zenbakien arabera.
15:47
We could use sales, anything you like.
Salmenten tamaina erabil liteke, edo nahi duguna.
15:49
There it is: after some little fluctuations at the beginning,
Hor dago, hasierako gorabehera txiki batzuk gertatu ostean,
15:52
when companies are innovating,
enpresek berrikuntzak egiten dituztenean,
15:55
they scale beautifully.
gero, eskala jarraitzen dute modu onean.
15:57
And we've looked at 23,000 companies
23.000 konpainia ikasi ditugu
15:59
in the United States, may I say.
Estatu Batuetan.
16:02
And I'm only showing you a little bit of this.
Eta zati txiki bat besterik ez dut erakutsi.
16:04
What is astonishing about companies
Egoera honen harrigarriena da
16:07
is that they scale sublinearly
lineal-azpiko eskala jarraitzen dutela,
16:09
like biology,
biologian bezala,
16:12
indicating that they're dominated,
eta horrek esan nahi du (zerbaiten) menpe daudela
16:14
not by super-linear
ez gain-linealen (menpe),
16:16
innovation and ideas;
berrikuntza eta ideiak;
16:18
they become dominated
baina (zerbaiten) menpe daude
16:21
by economies of scale.
eskala-ekonomien (menpe).
16:23
In that interpretation,
Interpretazio honetan,
16:25
by bureaucracy and administration,
burokraziaren eta kudeaketaren menpe,
16:27
and they do it beautifully, may I say.
bikain dabiltza.
16:29
So if you tell me the size of some company, some small company,
Hots, konpainia txiki baten tamaina esaten badidazue,
16:31
I could have predicted the size of Walmart.
Walmart-en tamaina aurretik jakin nezakeen.
16:34
If it has this sublinear scaling,
lineal-azpiko eskala hau izanez gero,
16:37
the theory says
teoriaren arabera,
16:39
we should have sigmoidal growth.
S itxurako hazkundea izango genuke.
16:41
There's Walmart. Doesn't look very sigmoidal.
Hor dago Walmart. Ez dirudi S itxurakoa.
16:44
That's what we like, hockey sticks.
guri gustatzen zaigun bezala, hockey-makila bezalakoa.
16:46
But you notice, I've cheated,
Baina konturatu egin zarete trikimailuak egin nituela,
16:49
because I've only gone up to '94.
1994 urte arte bakarrik joan nintzelako.
16:51
Let's go up to 2008.
2008 urte arte joan gaitezen.
16:53
That red line is from the theory.
Lerro gorriak teoria jarraitzen du.
16:55
So if I'd have done this in 1994,
Horrela egin banu 1994. urtean
16:58
I could have predicted what Walmart would be now.
gaurko Wallmart-en egoera aurretik jakin nezakeen.
17:00
And then this is repeated
Eta hau errepikatzen da
17:03
across the entire spectrum of companies.
esparru horretako enpresa guztietan.
17:05
There they are. That's 23,000 companies.
Han daude. 23.000 konpainiak.
17:07
They all start looking like hockey sticks,
Hasieran, guztien itxura hockey-makilakoa da,
17:10
they all bend over,
guztiak tolesten dira,
17:12
and they all die like you and me.
eta guzti guztiak hil egiten dira, zuek eta ni bezala.
17:14
Thank you.
Mila esker
17:16
(Applause)
(Txaloak)
17:18
Translated by Alvaro Moya
Reviewed by Jone Aliri

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About the speaker:

Geoffrey West - Theorist
Physicist Geoffrey West believes that complex systems from organisms to cities are in many ways governed by simple laws -- laws that can be discovered and analyzed.

Why you should listen

Trained as a theoretical physicist, Geoffrey West has turned his analytical mind toward the inner workings of more concrete things, like ... animals. In a paper for Science in 1997, he and his team uncovered what he sees as a surprisingly universal law of biology — the way in which heart rate, size and energy consumption are related, consistently, across most living animals. (Though not all animals: “There are always going to be people who say, ‘What about the crayfish?’ " he says. “Well, what about it? Every fundamental law has exceptions. But you still need the law or else all you have is observations that don’t make sense.")

A past president of the multidisciplinary Santa Fe Institute (after decades working  in high-energy physics at Los Alamos and Stanford), West now studies the behavior and development of cities. In his newest work, he proposes that one simple number, population, can predict a stunning array of details about any city, from crime rate to economic activity. It's all about the plumbing, he says, the infrastructure that powers growth or dysfunction. His next target for study: corporations.

He says: "Focusing on the differences [between cities] misses the point. Sure, there are differences, but different from what? We’ve found the what."

More profile about the speaker
Geoffrey West | Speaker | TED.com