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TEDGlobal 2011

Geoffrey West: The surprising math of cities and corporations

Džefri Vest (Geoffrey West): Iznenađujuće matematičko objašnjenje gradova i korporacija

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Fizičar Džefri Vest je pronašao jednostavane matematičke zakonitosti koje objašnjavaju karakteristike gradova - bogatstvo, stopa kriminala, brzina hoda i mnogi drugi aspekti grada, svi se mogu objasniti jednim brojem: brojem stanovnika. U ovom inspirativnom govoru, na TEDGlobal-u, pokazaće kako to radi i kako se slični zakoni odnose i na organizme i na korporacije.

- Theorist
Physicist Geoffrey West believes that complex systems from organisms to cities are in many ways governed by simple laws -- laws that can be discovered and analyzed. Full bio

Cities are the crucible of civilization.
Gradovi su veliki izazov za civilizaciju.
00:16
They have been expanding,
Oni se uvećavaju,
00:19
urbanization has been expanding,
stopa urbanizacije raste
00:21
at an exponential rate in the last 200 years
eksponencijalnom stopom u poslednjih 200 godina
00:23
so that by the second part of this century,
tako da će u drugoj polovini ovog veka
00:25
the planet will be completely dominated
gradovi u potpunosti dominirati
00:28
by cities.
planetom.
00:30
Cities are the origins of global warming,
Gradovi su izvor globalnog zagrevanja,
00:33
impact on the environment,
utiču na okruženje,
00:36
health, pollution, disease,
zdravlje, zagađenje, bolesti,
00:38
finance,
finansije,
00:41
economies, energy --
ekonomiju, energiju.
00:43
they're all problems
Svi ovi problemi
00:46
that are confronted by having cities.
su posledica postojanja gradova.
00:48
That's where all these problems come from.
To je izvor svih ovih problema.
00:50
And the tsunami of problems that we feel we're facing
A vrhunac problema sa kojima se suočavamo,
00:52
in terms of sustainability questions
po pitanju održivosti,
00:55
are actually a reflection
ogleda se u
00:57
of the exponential increase
eksponencijalnom povećanju
00:59
in urbanization across the planet.
stope urbanizacije širom planete.
01:01
Here's some numbers.
Pogledajmo neke brojeve:
01:04
Two hundred years ago, the United States
pre dve stotine godina, stopa urbanizacije
01:06
was less than a few percent urbanized.
u SAD je iznosila manje od nekoliko procenata.
01:08
It's now more than 82 percent.
Sada je stopa urbanizacije veća od 82%.
01:10
The planet has crossed the halfway mark a few years ago.
Globalno posmatrano, pre nekoliko godina ta stopa je prešla 50%.
01:12
China's building 300 new cities
U Kini će u narednih 20 godina
01:15
in the next 20 years.
biti izgrađeno 300 novih gradova.
01:17
Now listen to this:
Obratite pažnju sada na ovo:
01:19
Every week for the foreseeable future,
u bliskoj budućnosti
01:21
until 2050,
do 2050. godine,
01:24
every week more than a million people
populacija u našim gradovima će se svake nedelje
01:26
are being added to our cities.
povećavati za milion stanovnika.
01:28
This is going to affect everything.
To će uticati na sve.
01:30
Everybody in this room, if you stay alive,
Svako od vas, u ovoj sobi, ako bude živ,
01:32
is going to be affected
biće pogođen ovim
01:34
by what's happening in cities
neverovatnim fenomenom,
01:36
in this extraordinary phenomenon.
koji se odvija u gradovima.
01:38
However, cities,
Međutim i pored tih
01:40
despite having this negative aspect to them,
negativnih aspekata gradova,
01:43
are also the solution.
gradovi su takođe i rešenje.
01:46
Because cities are the vacuum cleaners and the magnets
Gradovi su magneti i usisivači
01:48
that have sucked up creative people,
koji privlače kreativne ljude,
01:52
creating ideas, innovation,
kreatore ideja, inovacija
01:54
wealth and so on.
bogatstva i tako dalje.
01:56
So we have this kind of dual nature.
Dakle imamo dve strane medalje.
01:58
And so there's an urgent need
Neophodno je ubrzo doći do
02:00
for a scientific theory of cities.
naučne teorije o gradovima.
02:03
Now these are my comrades in arms.
Ovo su moja braća po oružju.
02:07
This work has been done with an extraordinary group of people,
Izvanredna grupa ljudi je odradila ovaj posao,
02:10
and they've done all the work,
uradili su sav posao,
02:12
and I'm the great bullshitter
a ja sam veliki seronja
02:14
that tries to bring it all together.
koji pokušava da sve to objedini.
02:16
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
02:18
So here's the problem: This is what we all want.
Dakle, problem je u sledećem: Ovo je ono što svi želimo.
02:20
The 10 billion people on the planet in 2050
Na planeti će 2050. biti 10 milijardi ljudi koji
02:22
want to live in places like this,
žele da žive u ovakvim mestima,
02:25
having things like this,
da imaju ove stvari,
02:27
doing things like this,
da rade ovakve stvari,
02:29
with economies that are growing like this,
sa ekonomijom koja ovako raste,
02:31
not realizing that entropy
ne shvatajući da ta entropija
02:34
produces things like this,
proizvodi i ovakve stvari,
02:36
this, this
ovo, ovo
02:38
and this.
i ovo.
02:42
And the question is:
Pitanje je:
02:44
Is that what Edinburgh and London and New York
Da li će Edinburg, London i Njujork
02:46
are going to look like in 2050,
izgledati ovako 2050. godine
02:48
or is it going to be this?
ili će biti ovakvi?
02:50
That's the question.
To je pitanje.
02:52
I must say, many of the indicators
Moram priznati da mnogi pokazatelji
02:54
look like this is what it's going to look like,
upućuju na to da će oni izgledati ovako,
02:56
but let's talk about it.
ali popričajmo o tome.
02:59
So my provocative statement
Dakle, moje provokativno shvatanje
03:02
is that we desperately need a serious scientific theory of cities.
ukazuje da nam je preko potrebna ozbiljna naučna teorija o gradovima.
03:05
And scientific theory means quantifiable --
Naučna teorija podrazumeva kvantitet -
03:08
relying on underlying generic principles
oslanjanje na opšteprihvaćene principe
03:11
that can be made into a predictive framework.
koji se mogu uspostaviti u predvidivom okviru.
03:14
That's the quest.
To je potraga.
03:16
Is that conceivable?
Da li je dostižno?
03:18
Are there universal laws?
Da li postoje univerzalni zakoni?
03:20
So here's two questions
Javljaju se dva pitanja
03:22
that I have in my head when I think about this problem.
kada razmišljam o ovom problemu.
03:24
The first is:
Prvo je:
03:26
Are cities part of biology?
da li su gradovi deo biologije?
03:28
Is London a great big whale?
Da li je London veliki kit?
03:30
Is Edinburgh a horse?
Da li je Edinburg konj?
03:32
Is Microsoft a great big anthill?
Da li je Majkrosoft veliki mravinjak?
03:34
What do we learn from that?
Šta možemo da naučimo iz toga?
03:36
We use them metaphorically --
Koristimo ih kao metaforu -
03:38
the DNA of a company, the metabolism of a city, and so on --
DNK neke kompanije, metabolizam grada, i tako dalje --
03:40
is that just bullshit, metaphorical bullshit,
da li je to samo sranje, metaforičko sranje,
03:42
or is there serious substance to it?
ili u tome ima istine?
03:45
And if that is the case,
Ako je to tačno,
03:48
how come that it's very hard to kill a city?
zašto je veoma teško uništiti grad?
03:50
You could drop an atom bomb on a city,
Možete baciti atomsku bombu na grad,
03:52
and 30 years later it's surviving.
a 30 godina kasnije on i dalje preživljava.
03:54
Very few cities fail.
Malo je gradova koji su propali.
03:56
All companies die, all companies.
Sve kompanije umiru, sve kompanije.
03:59
And if you have a serious theory, you should be able to predict
Ako imate ozbiljnu teoriju, onda bi mogli da predvidite.
04:02
when Google is going to go bust.
kada će Gugl propasti.
04:04
So is that just another version
Dakle, da li je to
04:07
of this?
samo još jedna verzija ovoga.
04:10
Well we understand this very well.
Mi ovo dobro razumemo.
04:12
That is, you ask any generic question about this --
Odnosno, možete postaviti bilo koje pitanje o ovome -
04:14
how many trees of a given size,
koliko stabala određene veličine,
04:16
how many branches of a given size does a tree have,
koliko grana određene veličine, ima jedno drvo,
04:18
how many leaves,
koliko listova,
04:20
what is the energy flowing through each branch,
koja energija protiče kroz svaku granu,
04:22
what is the size of the canopy,
kolika je veličina krošnje,
04:24
what is its growth, what is its mortality?
kolika je stopa rasta, kolika stopa smrtnosti?
04:26
We have a mathematical framework
Imamo matematički okvir
04:28
based on generic universal principles
baziran na osnovnim univerzalnim principima
04:30
that can answer those questions.
koji može da odgovori na ova pitanja.
04:33
And the idea is can we do the same for this?
A ideja je, da li možemo da uradimo isto i za ovo?
04:35
So the route in is recognizing
Dakle, ide se ka prepoznavanju
04:40
one of the most extraordinary things about life,
jedne od najfenomenalnijih stvari o životu,
04:43
is that it is scalable,
a to je da je merljiv,
04:45
it works over an extraordinary range.
a skala se kreće u izuzetnom rasponu.
04:47
This is just a tiny range actually:
Ovo je jedan od malih raspona:
04:49
It's us mammals;
to smo mi, sisari,
04:51
we're one of these.
mi smo jedni od njih.
04:53
The same principles, the same dynamics,
Isti principi, ista dinamika,
04:55
the same organization is at work
ista organizacija je u svemu
04:57
in all of these, including us,
uključujući i nas,
04:59
and it can scale over a range of 100 million in size.
i može se primeniti na rasponu od 100 miliona veličina.
05:01
And that is one of the main reasons
Ovo je jedan od glavnih razloga
05:04
life is so resilient and robust --
zašto je život tako otporan i robustan -
05:07
scalability.
skaliranje.
05:09
We're going to discuss that in a moment more.
To ću ubrzo predstaviti.
05:11
But you know, at a local level,
Ali, znate, lokalno gledano,
05:14
you scale; everybody in this room is scaled.
vi skalirate, svi u ovoj sobi su skalirani.
05:16
That's called growth.
To se zove rast.
05:18
Here's how you grew.
Evo koliko ste porasli.
05:20
Rat, that's a rat -- could have been you.
Pacov, ovo je pacov - mogli ste biti vi.
05:22
We're all pretty much the same.
Mi smo svi prilično jednaki.
05:24
And you see, you're very familiar with this.
Vidite, svi ste upoznati sa ovim.
05:27
You grow very quickly and then you stop.
Rastete veoma brzo, a onda stanete.
05:29
And that line there
Ona linija tamo
05:31
is a prediction from the same theory,
jeste pretpostavka koja je izvedena na osnovu iste teorije,
05:33
based on the same principles,
na osnovu istih principa,
05:35
that describes that forest.
koji opisuju onu šumu.
05:37
And here it is for the growth of a rat,
Ovde je predstavljen rast pacova,
05:39
and those points on there are data points.
a one tačke su specifični podaci.
05:41
This is just the weight versus the age.
Ovo je odnos težine i starosti.
05:43
And you see, it stops growing.
Vidite, prestaje da raste.
05:45
Very, very good for biology --
Veoma dobro za biologiju,
05:47
also one of the reasons for its great resilience.
takođe jedan od razloga njihove velike otpornosti.
05:49
Very, very bad
Veoma, veoma loše
05:51
for economies and companies and cities
za ekonomiju, kompanije i gradove,
05:53
in our present paradigm.
u našoj sadašnjoj paradigmi.
05:55
This is what we believe.
To je ono u šta verujemo.
05:57
This is what our whole economy
Na ovome je zasnovana
05:59
is thrusting upon us,
naša čitava ekonomija,
06:01
particularly illustrated in that left-hand corner:
posebno prikazana u levom uglu:
06:03
hockey sticks.
štapovi za hokej.
06:06
This is a bunch of software companies --
Ovo je gomila softverskih kompanija,
06:08
and what it is is their revenue versus their age --
i pokazuje njihove prihode u odnosu na starost -
06:10
all zooming away,
sve se udaljava
06:12
and everybody making millions and billions of dollars.
i svako zarađuje milione i milijarde dolara.
06:14
Okay, so how do we understand this?
Dobro, kako mi ovo shvatamo?
06:16
So let's first talk about biology.
Sagledajmo prvo biologiju.
06:19
This is explicitly showing you
Ovo vam eksplicitno pokazuje
06:22
how things scale,
kako se stvari mere i upoređuju,
06:24
and this is a truly remarkable graph.
ovo je uistinu izuzetan grafikon.
06:26
What is plotted here is metabolic rate --
Ovde vidimo metaboličku stopu -
06:28
how much energy you need per day to stay alive --
koliko vam je energije potrebno za svakodnevni život -
06:31
versus your weight, your mass,
prema vašoj težini, vašoj masi,
06:34
for all of us bunch of organisms.
za sve nas, gomilu organizama.
06:36
And it's plotted in this funny way by going up by factors of 10,
Predstvaljen je na ovaj zabavan način, inkrementima koji rastu za 10 jedinica,
06:39
otherwise you couldn't get everything on the graph.
da je drugačije, ne biste stavili sve na grafikon.
06:42
And what you see if you plot it
Ono što vidite na grafikonu,
06:44
in this slightly curious way
na ovaj malo neobičan način,
06:46
is that everybody lies on the same line.
jeste da svi prate isti patern.
06:48
Despite the fact that this is the most complex and diverse system
Uprkos tome da se radi o najsloženijem i najrazličitijem
06:51
in the universe,
sistemu u univerzumu,
06:54
there's an extraordinary simplicity
postoji neverovatna jednostavnost
06:57
being expressed by this.
koja je ovime prikazana.
06:59
It's particularly astonishing
Posebno je zadivljujuće
07:01
because each one of these organisms,
jer je svaki od ovih organizama,
07:04
each subsystem, each cell type, each gene,
svaki podsistem, svaki tip ćelije, svaki gen,
07:06
has evolved in its own unique environmental niche
evoluirao u svojoj jedinstvenoj prirodnoj sredini,
07:08
with its own unique history.
sa svojom jedinstvenom istorijom.
07:12
And yet, despite all of that Darwinian evolution
Ipak, i pored Darvinove teorije evolucije
07:15
and natural selection,
i prirodne selekcije,
07:18
they've been constrained to lie on a line.
oni su prinuđeni da leže na istoj liniji.
07:20
Something else is going on.
Ovde se odigrava još nešto.
07:22
Before I talk about that,
Pre nego što počnem da pričam o tome,
07:24
I've written down at the bottom there
zapisao sam na dnu
07:26
the slope of this curve, this straight line.
ove krivulje, ovu ravnu liniju.
07:28
It's three-quarters, roughly,
To je otprilike tri četvrtine, grubo,
07:30
which is less than one -- and we call that sublinear.
što je manje nego jedan - i to zovemo sublinearnom.
07:32
And here's the point of that.
Evo i poenta toga.
07:35
It says that, if it were linear,
Govori da, ako bi bilo linearno,
07:37
the steepest slope,
najstrmiji nagib,
07:40
then doubling the size
da bi udvostručili veličinu,
07:42
you would require double the amount of energy.
trebalo bi vam dupla količina energije.
07:44
But it's sublinear, and what that translates into
Ali kako je sublinearna, to znači da
07:46
is that, if you double the size of the organism,
ako duplirate veličinu organizma,
07:49
you actually only need 75 percent more energy.
vama treba 75 procenata energije više.
07:51
So a wonderful thing about all of biology
Dakle, divna stvar u biologiji
07:54
is that it expresses an extraordinary economy of scale.
je postojanje ekonomičnosti veličine.
07:56
The bigger you are systematically,
Što ste sistemski veći,
07:59
according to very well-defined rules,
u skladu sa dobro definisanim pravilima,
08:01
less energy per capita.
treba vam manje energije po glavi.
08:03
Now any physiological variable you can think of,
Bilo koja fiziološka varijabla koje se možete setiti,
08:06
any life history event you can think of,
bilo koji istorijski događaj kog se možete setiti,
08:09
if you plot it this way, looks like this.
ako ga predstavite na ovaj način, izgledaće ovako.
08:11
There is an extraordinary regularity.
Postoji izvanredna pravilnost.
08:14
So you tell me the size of a mammal,
Dakle, kažete mi veličinu sisara,
08:16
I can tell you at the 90 percent level everything about it
a ja vam, sa tačnošću od 90%, mogu reći sve o njemu
08:18
in terms of its physiology, life history, etc.
o fiziologiji, životnoj istoriji i sl.
08:21
And the reason for this is because of networks.
Razlog tome je mreža.
08:25
All of life is controlled by networks --
Sav život je kontrolisan od strane mreža -
08:28
from the intracellular through the multicellular
od unutarćelijskih preko višećelijskih
08:31
through the ecosystem level.
preko nivoa ekosistema.
08:33
And you're very familiar with these networks.
Vi dobro poznajete ove mreže.
08:35
That's a little thing that lives inside an elephant.
To je mala stvar koja živi unutar jednog slona.
08:39
And here's the summary of what I'm saying.
A ovde je rezime svega što govorim.
08:42
If you take those networks,
Ako uzmete ove mreže,
08:45
this idea of networks,
ovu ideju o mreži,
08:47
and you apply universal principles,
i primenite univerzalne principe,
08:49
mathematizable, universal principles,
matematičke, univerzalne principe
08:51
all of these scalings
sva ta skaliranja
08:53
and all of these constraints follow,
i sva ta ograničenja koja prate,
08:55
including the description of the forest,
uključujući opis šume,
08:58
the description of your circulatory system,
opis vašeg sistema cirkulacije,
09:00
the description within cells.
opis unutar ćelija.
09:02
One of the things I did not stress in that introduction
Jedna od stvari koje nisam dovoljno naglasio u uvodu,
09:04
was that, systematically, the pace of life
jeste da, sistematski, brzina života
09:07
decreases as you get bigger.
opada kako vi postajete veći.
09:10
Heart rates are slower; you live longer;
Otkucaji srca su sporiji, vi živite duže,
09:12
diffusion of oxygen and resources
razmena kiseonika i resurasa
09:15
across membranes is slower, etc.
preko membrana je sporija itd.
09:17
The question is: Is any of this true
Pitanje je: Da li se išta od ovoga može
09:19
for cities and companies?
primeniti na gradove i kompanije?
09:21
So is London a scaled up Birmingham,
Dakle, da li je London uveličani Birmingem,
09:24
which is a scaled up Brighton, etc., etc.?
koji je uveličani Brajton itd?
09:27
Is New York a scaled up San Francisco,
Da li je Njujork uveličani San Francisko,
09:30
which is a scaled up Santa Fe?
koji je uveličani Santa Fe?
09:32
Don't know. We will discuss that.
Ne znam. O tome ćemo raspravljati.
09:34
But they are networks,
Ali oni su mreže,
09:36
and the most important network of cities
a najvažnija mreža grada
09:38
is you.
jeste vi.
09:40
Cities are just a physical manifestation
Gradovi su samo fizička manifestacija
09:42
of your interactions,
vaših interakcija,
09:45
our interactions,
naših interakcija,
09:47
and the clustering and grouping of individuals.
i grupisanja i povezivanja pojedinaca.
09:49
Here's just a symbolic picture of that.
Ovo je samo simbolična slika toga.
09:51
And here's scaling of cities.
Ovo je skaliranje gradova.
09:54
This shows that in this very simple example,
Pokazuje da ovaj jednostavan primer,
09:56
which happens to be a mundane example
koji je ujedno i običan primer
09:59
of number of petrol stations
broja benzinskih pumpi
10:01
as a function of size --
predstvaljen kao funkcija veličine -
10:03
plotted in the same way as the biology --
predstavljen na isti način kao i u biologiji -
10:05
you see exactly the same kind of thing.
pokazuje istu stvar.
10:07
There is a scaling.
Merljivo je i uporedivo.
10:09
That is that the number of petrol stations in the city
Broj benzinskih pumpi u gradu
10:11
is now given to you
vam je sada predstavljen
10:15
when you tell me its size.
u funkciji veličine grada.
10:17
The slope of that is less than linear.
Nagib nije linearan.
10:19
There is an economy of scale.
Prisutna je ekonomija obima.
10:22
Less petrol stations per capita the bigger you are -- not surprising.
Što je manje benzinskih pumpi po glavi, vi ste veći - nije iznenađujuće.
10:24
But here's what's surprising.
Ali evo iznenađenja.
10:27
It scales in the same way everywhere.
Skaliranje je svuda identično.
10:29
This is just European countries,
Ovu su samo evropske zemlje,
10:31
but you do it in Japan or China or Colombia,
ali ako uradite to u Japanu, Kini ili Kolumbiji
10:33
always the same
dobijete isti rezultat,
10:36
with the same kind of economy of scale
sa istim pravilima ekonomičnosti veličine
10:38
to the same degree.
istog stepena.
10:40
And any infrastructure you look at --
Svaka infrastruktura koju pogledate -
10:42
whether it's the length of roads, length of electrical lines --
bilo da je dužina puta, dužina električnih vodova -
10:45
anything you look at
sve što pogledate
10:48
has the same economy of scale scaling in the same way.
pokazuje istu ekonomičnost, izraženu na isti način.
10:50
It's an integrated system
To je integrisani sistem
10:53
that has evolved despite all the planning and so on.
koji je evoluirao i pored svih planiranja i slično.
10:55
But even more surprising
Ali ono što još više iznenađuje
10:58
is if you look at socio-economic quantities,
jeste analiza socio-ekonomskih pokazatelja,
11:00
quantities that have no analog in biology,
veličine koje nemaju pandam u biologiji,
11:02
that have evolved when we started forming communities
koje su evoluirale kada smo formirali zajednice
11:05
eight to 10,000 years ago.
pre 8 do 10.000 godina.
11:08
The top one is wages as a function of size
Ono na vrhu su zarade predstavljene u funkciji veličine,
11:10
plotted in the same way.
dakle na isti način.
11:12
And the bottom one is you lot --
A na dnu ste vi -
11:14
super-creatives plotted in the same way.
super-kreativni predstavljeni na isti način.
11:16
And what you see
Ono što vidite
11:19
is a scaling phenomenon.
jeste fenomen skaliranja.
11:21
But most important in this,
Ali najvažniji je
11:23
the exponent, the analog to that three-quarters
eksponent, primenjiv na te tri četvrtine
11:25
for the metabolic rate,
za metaboličku stopu,
11:27
is bigger than one -- it's about 1.15 to 1.2.
je veći od jedan - on je oko 1,15 do 1,2.
11:29
Here it is,
Tu je,
11:31
which says that the bigger you are
pokazuje da što ste veći
11:33
the more you have per capita, unlike biology --
više imate po glavi stanovnika, za razliku od biologije -
11:36
higher wages, more super-creative people per capita as you get bigger,
veće plate, više kreativnih ljudi po glavi stanovnika- što ste veći,
11:39
more patents per capita, more crime per capita.
više patenata po glavi stanovnika, više kriminala po glavi stanovnika.
11:43
And we've looked at everything:
Mi smo analizirali sve:
11:46
more AIDS cases, flu, etc.
više slučajeva SIDA-e, gripa i sl.
11:48
And here, they're all plotted together.
A ovde su oni predstavljeni zajedno.
11:51
Just to show you what we plotted,
Samo da vam pokažem šta smo predstavili,
11:53
here is income, GDP --
ovde je prihod, BDP -
11:55
GDP of the city --
BDP grada -
11:58
crime and patents all on one graph.
kriminal i patenti na jednom grafikonu.
12:00
And you can see, they all follow the same line.
Možete videti, oni prate jednu istu liniju.
12:02
And here's the statement.
Evo i izjave.
12:04
If you double the size of a city from 100,000 to 200,000,
Ako udvostručite veličinu grada sa 100.000 na 200.000,
12:06
from a million to two million, 10 to 20 million,
sa milion na dva miliona, 10 na 20 miliona
12:09
it doesn't matter,
nije bitno,
12:11
then systematically
onda sistematski
12:13
you get a 15 percent increase
dobijate povećanje od 15 procenata
12:15
in wages, wealth, number of AIDS cases,
u platama, bogatstvu, obolelih od SIDA-e,
12:17
number of police,
broju policajaca,
12:19
anything you can think of.
svega što možete da zamislite.
12:21
It goes up by 15 percent,
Sve poraste za 15%,
12:23
and you have a 15 percent savings
i imate 15% uštedu
12:25
on the infrastructure.
na infrastrukturi.
12:28
This, no doubt, is the reason
To je, nema sumnje, razlog
12:31
why a million people a week are gathering in cities.
zašto milion ljudi svake nedelje dolazi u gradove.
12:34
Because they think that all those wonderful things --
Zato što misle da su sve te divne stvari -
12:37
like creative people, wealth, income --
kreativni ljudi, bogatstvo, prihod,
12:40
is what attracts them,
ono što ih privlači,
12:42
forgetting about the ugly and the bad.
a zaboravljaju na ružnu i lošu stranu.
12:44
What is the reason for this?
Šta je razlog tome?
12:46
Well I don't have time to tell you about all the mathematics,
Nemam vremena da vam pričam detaljno o matematici,
12:48
but underlying this is the social networks,
ali u osnovi svega je socijalna mreža,
12:51
because this is a universal phenomenon.
jer je ovo univerzalni fenomen.
12:54
This 15 percent rule
Ovo pravilo od 15 procenata
12:57
is true
je istinito
13:00
no matter where you are on the planet --
bez obzira gde ste na planeti -
13:02
Japan, Chile,
Japan, Čile,
13:04
Portugal, Scotland, doesn't matter.
Portugal, Škotska, nije bitno.
13:06
Always, all the data shows it's the same,
Uvek, svi podaci pokazuju isto,
13:09
despite the fact that these cities have evolved independently.
uprkos činjenici da su se ovi gradovi razvijali nezavisno.
13:12
Something universal is going on.
Nešto univerzalno se dešava.
13:15
The universality, to repeat, is us --
Ta univerzalnost, da ponovim, smo mi -
13:17
that we are the city.
mi smo grad.
13:20
And it is our interactions and the clustering of those interactions.
Naše interakcije i grupisanje ovih interakcija.
13:22
So there it is, I've said it again.
Dakle, ponavljam se.
13:25
So if it is those networks and their mathematical structure,
Ove mreže i njihova matematička osnova,
13:27
unlike biology, which had sublinear scaling,
nisu kao biologija, gde vlada sublinearno skaliranje,
13:30
economies of scale,
ili ekonomija obima,
13:33
you had the slowing of the pace of life
pa dolazi do usporavanja tempa života
13:35
as you get bigger.
sa rastom.
13:37
If it's social networks with super-linear scaling --
Ako je to društvena mreža, sa super linearnim skaliranjem -
13:39
more per capita --
više po glavi stanovnika -
13:41
then the theory says
onda teorija kaže
13:43
that you increase the pace of life.
da vi povećavate tempo života.
13:45
The bigger you are, life gets faster.
Što ste veći, život postaje brži.
13:47
On the left is the heart rate showing biology.
Sa leve strane je prikazan srčani ritam koji pokazuje biologiju.
13:49
On the right is the speed of walking
Sa desne strane je brzina hoda
13:51
in a bunch of European cities,
u velikom broju evropskih gradova,
13:53
showing that increase.
koja pokazuje taj rast.
13:55
Lastly, I want to talk about growth.
Na kraju, želim da govorim o rastu.
13:57
This is what we had in biology, just to repeat.
Ovo smo imali u biologiji, samo da ponovim.
14:00
Economies of scale
Ekonomija obima
14:03
gave rise to this sigmoidal behavior.
podstiče ovo sigmoidalno ponašanje.
14:06
You grow fast and then stop --
Rastete brzo i onda stanete -
14:09
part of our resilience.
to je deo naše otpornosti.
14:12
That would be bad for economies and cities.
To bi bilo loše za ekonomiju i gradove.
14:14
And indeed, one of the wonderful things about the theory
Zaista, jedna od fantastičnih stvari u vezi sa ovom teorijom
14:17
is that if you have super-linear scaling
je da ako imate super-linearno skaliranje
14:19
from wealth creation and innovation,
od stvaranja bogatstva i inovacija,
14:22
then indeed you get, from the same theory,
onda stvarno dobijate, od iste teorije,
14:24
a beautiful rising exponential curve -- lovely.
divnu rastuću eksponencijalnu krivu - prelepo.
14:27
And in fact, if you compare it to data,
U stvari, ako je uporedite sa podacima
14:29
it fits very well
slažu se veoma dobro
14:31
with the development of cities and economies.
sa razvojem gradova i ekomonije.
14:33
But it has a terrible catch,
Ali postoji užasna začkoljicu,
14:35
and the catch
a to je
14:37
is that this system is destined to collapse.
da je ovaj sistem osuđen na propast.
14:39
And it's destined to collapse for many reasons --
Osuđen je iz mnogih razloga -
14:42
kind of Malthusian reasons -- that you run out of resources.
sličnih Maltusovim razlozima - da ćete ostati bez resursa.
14:44
And how do you avoid that? Well we've done it before.
Kako da izbegnete to? Pa mi smo to već jednom uspeli.
14:47
What we do is,
Ono što se dešava
14:50
as we grow and we approach the collapse,
je da rastemo i približavamo se tački kolapsa,
14:52
a major innovation takes place
tada dođemo do velikog izuma,
14:55
and we start over again,
i mi počinjemo iznova ponovo,
14:58
and we start over again as we approach the next one, and so on.
i počinjemo ispočetka kada se približimo sledećoj i tako dalje.
15:00
So there's this continuous cycle of innovation
Dakle tu je neprekidan ciklus inoviranja
15:03
that is necessary
koji je neophodan
15:05
in order to sustain growth and avoid collapse.
u cilju održavanja rasta i izbegavanja kolapsa.
15:07
The catch, however, to this
Začkoljica, je u tome
15:10
is that you have to innovate
što treba da inoviramo
15:12
faster and faster and faster.
brže i brže i brže.
15:14
So the image
Dakle slika je
15:17
is that we're not only on a treadmill that's going faster,
takva da nismo samo na pokretnoj traci koja se kreće brže
15:19
but we have to change the treadmill faster and faster.
već moramo da menjamo trake sve brže i brže.
15:22
We have to accelerate on a continuous basis.
Moramo neprekidno da ubrzavamo.
15:25
And the question is: Can we, as socio-economic beings,
A pitanje je: Možemo li, kao socijalno-ekonomska bića,
15:28
avoid a heart attack?
da izbegnemo srčani udar?
15:31
So lastly, I'm going to finish up in this last minute or two
Na kraju, završiću u poslednjoj minuti ili dve
15:34
asking about companies.
pitajući o kompanijama.
15:37
See companies, they scale.
Vidite kompanije, one se skaliraju.
15:39
The top one, in fact, is Walmart on the right.
Ona na vrhu je Volmart, sa desne strane.
15:41
It's the same plot.
To je isti gafikon.
15:43
This happens to be income and assets
Ovo su prihod i imovina
15:45
versus the size of the company as denoted by its number of employees.
prema veličini kompanije, predstavljeni brojem zaposlenih.
15:47
We could use sales, anything you like.
Možemo da koristimo prodaju, bilo šta što vam se dopada.
15:49
There it is: after some little fluctuations at the beginning,
Nakon nekih manjih fluktuacija na početku,
15:52
when companies are innovating,
kada kompanija inovira,
15:55
they scale beautifully.
ona veoma lepo skalira.
15:57
And we've looked at 23,000 companies
Imamo 23.000 kompanija
15:59
in the United States, may I say.
u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama.
16:02
And I'm only showing you a little bit of this.
A pokazujem vam samo mali deo ovoga.
16:04
What is astonishing about companies
Ono što je zadivljujuće oko kompanija
16:07
is that they scale sublinearly
je da one skaliraju sublinearno
16:09
like biology,
kao biologija,
16:12
indicating that they're dominated,
pokazujući da njima dominiraju,
16:14
not by super-linear
ne super-linearne
16:16
innovation and ideas;
inovacije i ideje
16:18
they become dominated
već dominira
16:21
by economies of scale.
ekonomija obima.
16:23
In that interpretation,
Prema toj interpretaciji,
16:25
by bureaucracy and administration,
birokratije i administracije
16:27
and they do it beautifully, may I say.
to lepo čine, ako mi dozvolite.
16:29
So if you tell me the size of some company, some small company,
Dakle, ako mi kažete veličinu kompanije, neke male kompanije,
16:31
I could have predicted the size of Walmart.
mogao bih da predvidim veličinu Volmarta.
16:34
If it has this sublinear scaling,
Ako ima ovo sublinearno skaliranje
16:37
the theory says
teorija kaže
16:39
we should have sigmoidal growth.
da ćemo imati sigmoidalni rast.
16:41
There's Walmart. Doesn't look very sigmoidal.
Tu je Volmart. Ne izgleda preterano sigmoidalno.
16:44
That's what we like, hockey sticks.
To je ono što volimo, štapovi za hokej.
16:46
But you notice, I've cheated,
Ali primetili ste, ja sam varao
16:49
because I've only gone up to '94.
jer sam išao samo do '94.
16:51
Let's go up to 2008.
Hajdemo do 2008.
16:53
That red line is from the theory.
Crvena linija je iz teorije.
16:55
So if I'd have done this in 1994,
Dakle, da sam uradio ovo 1994.
16:58
I could have predicted what Walmart would be now.
mogao bih da predvidim kakav bi Volmart mogao biti sada.
17:00
And then this is repeated
Onda se ovo ponavlja
17:03
across the entire spectrum of companies.
kroz čitav spektar kompanija.
17:05
There they are. That's 23,000 companies.
One su ovde. To je 23.000 kompanija.
17:07
They all start looking like hockey sticks,
Sve počinju da liče na štapove za hokej,
17:10
they all bend over,
sve se savijaju,
17:12
and they all die like you and me.
i sve umiru kao vi i ja.
17:14
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
17:16
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
17:18
Translated by Darko Ilic
Reviewed by Jelena Nedjic

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About the speaker:

Geoffrey West - Theorist
Physicist Geoffrey West believes that complex systems from organisms to cities are in many ways governed by simple laws -- laws that can be discovered and analyzed.

Why you should listen

Trained as a theoretical physicist, Geoffrey West has turned his analytical mind toward the inner workings of more concrete things, like ... animals. In a paper for Science in 1997, he and his team uncovered what he sees as a surprisingly universal law of biology — the way in which heart rate, size and energy consumption are related, consistently, across most living animals. (Though not all animals: “There are always going to be people who say, ‘What about the crayfish?’ " he says. “Well, what about it? Every fundamental law has exceptions. But you still need the law or else all you have is observations that don’t make sense.")

A past president of the multidisciplinary Santa Fe Institute (after decades working  in high-energy physics at Los Alamos and Stanford), West now studies the behavior and development of cities. In his newest work, he proposes that one simple number, population, can predict a stunning array of details about any city, from crime rate to economic activity. It's all about the plumbing, he says, the infrastructure that powers growth or dysfunction. His next target for study: corporations.

He says: "Focusing on the differences [between cities] misses the point. Sure, there are differences, but different from what? We’ve found the what."

More profile about the speaker
Geoffrey West | Speaker | TED.com